Roundup

Posted on August 22, 2013 Posted in Commodities, Demographics, Indicators, Macro, Stocks95 Comments

Dust settling on the FOMC meeting minutes. Will know by the end of today the true market reaction. But gold has consolidated beneath the next resistance level which I believe is promising for a breakout to the next level shown:

Meanwhile I am unsure with US equities whether they can now rally as we move beyond the full moon and out of the lunar negative period, or whether the continued downtrend in geomagnetism together with a lack of bottoming out in sentiment and oversold (as suggested by Chris Puplava below) mean they have yet further to fall. If I could suggest a middle ground it would be that they muster a rally and then fall again in a kind of ABC correction.

Source: PFS Group

For Japanese equities, this is the picture:

I suggest it is also unclear. Either equities could rally here out of the smaller descending wedge together with the longer term support, or they could break down lower than the June lows to make an overall ABC correction from the peak. I would feel more confident about the former option if leading and coincident data had not been so much worse this month than last. Still, I may yet act here, will see.

All the CB leading indicators are in for this month apart from Eurozone:

Source: Conference Board

But combining German, French and Spanish readings, the Eurozone number is likely to be weaker than last month’s 0.5 but still positive. The stand out is China, with a rise to 1.4%, and this is echoed in the latest flash PMI reading, a sharp improvement:

Source: Markit

This bodes well for commodities.

The latest picture for narrow real money as a leading indicator suggests that economic momentum will top out in October / November and begin to fade at end-2013, according to Simon Ward:

Source: MoneyMovesMarkets

This would fit well with a scenario of stocks completing their topping process in the Autumn and commodities accelerating to a peak after stocks. It has been historically normal for stocks to peak ahead of the economy (once leading indicators are trending down) and for commodities to peak last once the economy has already dropped into a downtrend.

My last chart is courtesy of Megane Faber showing trends in CAPE valuations of all the major countries, to which I have added the text of the demographic peaks:

Underlying Source: Megane Faber

By my demographic work, CAPE and P/E valuations must be understood relative to demographics. A high valuation can and will go higher if the demographic trend is positive, and vice versa for low valuations. What we face now is an unprecedented downward pull in demographics from USA, China and Europe, i.e. a massive proportion of the world’s GDP. The obvious candidates for future CAPE spikes at this point would be Brazil and India, as they are both in the world’s top 10 biggest economies and have positive demographic trends. However, they would likely need to first grow into bigger more self-sustaining economies and, if that were possible, it will take time given it would take place against the collective downward pressure from the majors. In short, I don’t see a major CAPE spike on that chart coming for some time.

Updated Charts

Posted on August 19, 2013August 19, 2013 Posted in Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Geomagnetism, Indicators, Lunar Cycles, Macro, Solar Cycles, Stocks21 Comments

1. Geomagnetism – downtrend out to mid-Sept:

2. Sunspots – up again currently but still no clear trend:

3. Economic surprises – coincident data positive in USA and Europe, improving in China, disappointing in Japan and languishing in emerging markets:

4. Leading indicators – weakening of late:

Source: Conference Board

Source: Dshort

5. Climate – July joint hottest 10th month on record, so not at mega-extreme, but still at levels sufficient to potentially disrupt agri.

6. Silver – this seems to be the obvious target to me, horizontal resistance and a re-test of the breakdown. If it can get there I will take profits on half my positions.

7. Full moon on Wed and end of lunar negative period this coming weekend. My aim is to take half profits on Dow shorts within that period. I have no price target, just that time target. I expect equities will rise again to complete a multi-month topping process so don’t think this is the time to load up short. One more up-move, I suggest.

8. Treasury yields advanced again. Tough to call what the Fed will do at the mid-Sept FOMC, but a month’s developments to go until then.

To sum up, still looks like a topping process in equities. Commodities outperforming currently and USD weak – this looks promising for a late cyclical rally in commodities, whilst equities top out. If the solar max is still ahead at the end of 2013 that whole process would fit, with commodities topping out in early 2014. To further fit, China and emerging markets should improve whilst the developed economies weaken in terms of leading indicators. Let’s see.

Macro And Markets

Posted on August 8, 2013 Posted in Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Deflation, Demographics, Indicators, Lunar Cycles, Macro, References, Solar Cycles, Stocks29 Comments

It’s the start of the lunar negative fortnight today. I think this lunar downward pressure can be realised in price action in US equities, for these reasons.

1. Bonds may put in a rally here. Yields look to be arching over.

Source: Sentimentrader

2. Rydex equities involvement and sentiment at contrarian levels:

Source: Sentimentrader

3. Diverging bullish percent over call put ratio – note the previous occurences here:

Source: Stockcharts

4. Breadth divergence. There are a few indicators showing this such as % stocks above 50MA, Mclellan Summation index, and, here, advance-declines (making a double top versus the higher high in equity prices):

Source: Cobra

No devastating decline in overall market internals. but enough to warrant a pullback. Countering this, the latest economic surprises, service PMI and manufacturing PMI, and overall earnings beat rate for the US have all been good. For a cyclical stock market top, we would need to start seeing some degradation in such data. However, if this is a topping process, then I expect we are only in the middle of it at this point, with a last push up to come ahead into September (assuming a decline can be realised over the next 2 weeks). By September I would then expect to see some macro reasons emerging to complete a topping process in equities.

I have doubled my short position on the Dow today and have specifically tallked about and targeted US equities because of the current divergence around the globe. The latest Markit PMIs really showed a vast difference between emerging and developed economies. Sober Look suggests this spread in economic cycle positioning:

Source: SoberLook

UK and Eurozone are looking particularly impressive and USA ticking along nicely. Australia has suffered since China lost momentum, and its central bank reduced rates again this week. This is the collective picture for the major central banks:

Source: Action Forex

Despite the QE tapering talk in the US, the graphic shows that we are still in an era of easing, with interest rate reduction still being pursued. As you know, I believe demographic trends are the source of the global economic weakness, ensuring we will be in an era of negligible rates for some time. Maybe the Fed will start to taper as early as next month, but I believe an end to QE and a renewed rate-increase policy will not be seen soon.

So, China has cracked, in my opinion, since its demographic trends reversed circa 2010. Those developing nations that boomed directly as China partners and those commodity-economies that benefitted from the long rising trends in commodity prices (through China demand) are currently suffering. This would include Brazil and Russia. India’s issues have been more internal and it needs reforms to help realise its demographic potential.

For most of the 2000s, this China plus emerging markets story was the fuel for the global economy, but now we are looking back towards the developed world to take the batton. Unfortunately, the US and Europe have significant demographic headwinds. I therefore don’t believe that we are now going to see sustained growth in the West. I continue to believe that either another rally in commodities will tip the world into a global recession, or the world is heading that way in a deflationary trend.

And that remains the key question for my account. Will my commodities longs prosper, or continue to sink? Right now, the commodities indices are potentially carving out a higher low than late June, which could spell an end to their downtrend. I believe this is the time for that to occur, because of my belief that equities are in a topping process. Historically they should now outperform and largely act as late cyclicals. I see this next month as critical for commodities. If they cannot make a higher low than June at this point, paricularly as the USD weakens, then it would look bearish for commodities.

Here is corn, showing a potential rally set up.

Source: Sentimentrader

And copper looks to be breaking out following a month-long basing pattern.

To draw the above themes together, can emerging markets strengthen into year-end, positively-infected by current developed economy performance? If so, the commodities rally would appear more likely. If on the other hand developed markets begin to join emerging economies in weakness, then a deflationary downdraft would be more likely. The wildcards remain the solar cycle (if the peak is ahead, then a speculative push in commodities could occur with increased geopolitical conflict an associated input) and climate (drought, flood and very high historical temperatures remain very much in play – it depends whether we see a devastating coming-together at the critical time and global location for agricultural crops).

OECD leading indicators just released today are more supportive to the first scenario of emerging markets strengthening and joining developed nations, with Russia stabilising and India improving:

Source: OECD

Roundup

Posted on August 5, 2013 Posted in Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Deflation, Demographics, Geomagnetism, Indicators, Macro, Real Estate, Solar Cycles, Stocks21 Comments

This is the latest geomagnetism forecast versus the SP500. The forecast extends to the beginning of September and as can be seen has further transformed from a downtrend to a sideways/up trend.

The SP500 notably diverged from the model throughout July, more so than other indices which have more closely tracked the model. The outperformance of the US stock indices has meant p/e valuation has now increased to make the US amongst the world’s more expensive:

Source: FT

Is this justified? Not by demographics. Here once again is my real US equities plus real US house prices model versus 3 demographic ratios for the US:

That model has edged further up now in mid-2013 as real equities are back at 2007 levels and real house prices have edged up a little more (though are still a long way from the real 2007 peak). Yet the 3 demographic trends call for the model to collapse once again, as in 2001 and 2008. What makes demographics more potent this time around is that China has joined Europe and the USA in an unprecedented collective downward demographic pressure.

If we take the best of the three demographic measures, middle to young, only, then this is how it looks:

Source: PFS Group

Is it possible that the 2014-15 bottom is near enough and that stocks have taken off already? Well that p/e10 now stands at around 25, having bottomed in early 2009. That would mean p/es bottomed out around 5-6 years before the M/Y ratio, whereas in 2000 and 1982 the two peaked and troughed at very similar times. In the 1960s there was more of a gap, with demographics topping out a few years before p/es, but note it was demographics rather than p/es first, and this is echoed in my demographic work on Japan and UK, namely that if there is any lag it is demographics changing course first. In short, another cyclical bear in US stocks still looks the most likely course to me, and this is further cemented when we draw in all demographics measures, demographic pressures in China and Europe, and other US market valuations such as the Q ratio.

However, current leading indicator data is still largely positive for the USA at the moment (e.g. latest Markit PMI), and Europe is showing renewed strength (Markit PMIs, Conference Board). In fact it is the demographic-positive markets such as Brazil which are showing particular weakness. So what’s going on? I suggest commodities have played a key role in this. Lower input prices have boosted the developed economies and stocks. Commodity-economies such as Brazil have suffered. If commodities can rally again and make a historically-normal late-cyclical peak after stocks have peaked then I suggest the demographically-challenged major economies won’t be able to handle the renewed input price pressure. I believe the weak global recovery will topple over if commodities, particularly oil, rise in a meaningful way again.

Here is 30 year treasury yields with CCI comodities index, world equities index and Euro-USD. Euro-USD and commodities could be in a new uptrend that began in early July, IF they can make a higher low here.

Source: Bloomberg

But too early to say anything more. For me, it remains a game of patience, waiting to see if commodities can start to outperform here. Gold and silver had a very up-and-down week last week. Oil has maintained its breakout but appears to be stalling.

I believe the solar cycle still has a key role to play in the fortunes of commodities. Here is the latest SIDC update which continues to show two possibilities. If the solar max was Feb 2012 then I suggest commodities peaked out in 2011. If this were the case then I don’t believe a new secular bull market in stocks is underway because as per my work secular actually is demographic and the major economy demographics don’t support a new secular bull. I rather expect a deflationary recession to come to pass in due course. If the solar max is ahead as per the second SIDC option then I believe we will see the historically normal late outperformance of commodities from here into 2014 and that will tip the world into recession.

Source: SIDC

In the near term, I am looking at the window from tomorrow’s new moon through to Friday’s end-of-lunar-positive period to take profits on some equities longs and potentially add more short equities. I would like to see stocks advance further this week to do so.

All Round Update

Posted on July 31, 2013 Posted in Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Deflation, Demographics, Geomagnetism, Indicators, Lunar Cycles, Macro, Solar Cycles, Stocks18 Comments

I’m back. Here’s an updated look at the main pillars of my work.

First, demographics. The key overarching macro issue going forward, in my view, is whether the combined price-deflationary and asset-deflationary demographic trends now in place between US, Europe and China will tip the world into recession and deflation despite the best efforts of central banks. Someone else has picked up on the theme and produced this:

Source: Nakedcapitalism

I continue to look at leading indicators for evidence. There is no doubt central banks have some impact on behaviour in the economy and financial markets by deploying policies to discourage savings, cash and fixed income, and to encourage lending, risk-assets investment and spending. But is it enough to offset the demographics?

The latest data shows Europe strengthening (PMIs, economic surprises), USA possibly having peaked (ECRI, economic surprises), and the overall global economy potentially weakening towards late 2013 but not until then (narrow real money). This week’s US GDP release surprised to the upside for last quarter, however the upside surprise matched the retrospective reduction in the previous quarter’s data. Nonetheless, the overall global picture is still fairly ‘safe’. Europe’s relative strength ahead should bode well for the Euro v USD, and a relatively weakening USD should bode well for commodities, and if we are to see the normal late cyclical outperformance in commodities (once stocks peak) then we need leading indicators to at least hold up a little longer.

If the unprecedented coming together of demographic downtrends in US, China and Europe mean the global economy is heading for recession no matter what (given China has now peaked demographically), then I believe this will mean a severe nominal decline in equities, as central banks will be revealed as impotent, and panic will ensue. If we slip into global recession without the ‘agent’ of commodity price acceleration then I would expect the SP500 to complete an overall megaphone formation since 2000 with a potentially lower low than 2009.

Next, solar cycles. Experts still don’t know if a solar peak is ahead or behind. Here’s the latest sunspot chart:

It’s clearly a weak sunspot cycle, and fairly messy. Some scientists believe there is a second peak ahead this year, which may exceed the existing smoothed max (Feb 2012). On the other hand, an overlay of SC5 suggests that existing peak may have been it:

Source: WattsUpWithThat

If the peak was Feb 2012, then I would point to 2011’s commodities speculation including a silver parabolic together with extensive Arab revolutions as normal behaviour patterns associated with solar maxima. It should mean that we have passed the speculative peak in commodities, that global temperature may have already peaked, and that we should expect the geomagnetic disturbance peak that follows a solar max normally 1-3 years later and is associated with recession. In this scenario I would expect commodities to continue overall weakness and deflationary recession to occur.

If the peak is still ahead later this year then we may see global temperature hitting extremes and more geopolitical trouble, together with a speculative peak. All three could push up commodities in a late cyclical outperformance into 2014 with bonds already having topped and stocks topping this mid-year. In this scenario I would expect an inflationary spike to help tip the global economy into subsequent recession.

Next, geomagnetism. All models have been updated for this week, and drawing in the next 3 weeks geomagnetism forecast, we see this (mapped against the commodities index):

A flattening out in cumulative geomagnetism in August following a downtrend May-July. By normal seasonality, geomagnetism should be troubling again by September and October. August-September would therefore be a suitable time for US equities to make a final peak in a topping process, if one began in May. Did one?

Well, so far the process is developing like a typical top. A marginally higher high is currently being played out with some weakening in breadth versus the May peak (% stocks above 50MA, Mclellan summation index). Margin debt still looks like it peaked in April, and in 2000 and 2007 this peaked 3-6 months before the stock market finally rolled over. However, this would all be invalidated if stocks push on again here and away from the topping range, with breadth strengthening again. US earnings may play a role in this and so far have made an impressive earnings beat, but a poor revenue beat rate. This means companies are making profits by cutting costs. This could be a warning if the economy shows signs of weakening, which brings us back to the importance of leading indicator readings as they come out. If central banks have been able to juice the economy just enough to offset demographics, through rate cuts, QE and verbal support (do what ever it takes) then it is feasible that this already long cyclical bull (by historical comparisons) continues. But I side with the multi-month topping process currently playing out until counter-evidence increases.

Next, lunar phasing. I have updated The Lunar Edge page and this is how the two of the most ‘sensitive’ indices to lunar phasing have performed so far this year:

The German Dax has delivered all of its annual gains so far within the lunar positive fortnights (4 days after full moon through to 4 days after new moon), whereas the Singapore Straits has really delivered no lunar edge of any note so far this year. Nonetheless, a strategy playing the lunar edge equally across both would still have returned well overall. I continue to look to the start of lunar negative periods for adding short and to the start of lunar positive periods for adding long, in order to time my longer term trades. On that note, the current lunar positive period ends by Friday next week. If equities have been able to rise further by then, I will look at taking profits where in profit, and adding short at that point if evidence continues to support a topping process.

Because we are in a lunar positive period currently, and Japanese equities fulfilled what I last suggested look liked occurring (the arching-over turning into falls) I have entered long Nikkei again, but just a starter position. My main exposure currently remains long commodities, with greatest weighting precious metals. I have various significant loss-making positions in commodities. I continue to believe that because of demographic trends precious metals will come again as the anti-demographic. I suggest central banks in US, China and Europe will continue to have to support the economy for some time to come and that renewed dovish talk will benefit gold. For other commodities, I return to the solar maximum unknown. If the solar maximum is ahead still, then I believe temperature and geopolitical disturbance and speculative mania can inspire a historically normal commodities peak following a peak in equities. Crude oil’s breakout in June gave this more credibility. Crude has now pulled back a little, and it will be important to see if this is consolidation before further gains.

If commodities as a whole have peaked and deflation continues to press them downwards, then I will be holding increasing loss-making positions. What to do? I will be looking to average down and time mean reversion. Nothing goes down in a straight line and I will be looking to convert them into winning trades in a ‘trade your way out’ style by leveraging up. Not easy, and no doubt some would view that as too risky, but that’s what I will be doing. Don’t follow me, etc, I’m just sharing with you what I’m doing, as the money management is as important as the analysis, right? But first, let’s see if commodities can outperform in the rest of 2013, as the previously detailed evidence suggests is possible. I want to give them a little more time to gather momentum, before using aggression.

Some key assets. Gold reached important resistance around 1344. Can it break through? If not then the basing process in precious metals will need some time longer. It is confidence restoration versus short squeeze, but if the latter is to occur then we will need triggers in the news. The US dollar has been in decline since the Fed backtracked on QE-tapering-hastiness, turned away at key long term resistance. However, it could yet be consolidation before another charge. I believe it will weaken as the Eurozone relatively improves, but the Fed’s actions will play a key role. Since I sold out of short-treasuries they tracked overall sideways. This could be consolidation before further rises in yields, but as there has been no pullback I don’t wish to yet rejoin.

I am writing this post US GDP release and pre FOMC output. Both market movers, and it will take until tomorrow for the dust to settle and we see where different assets want to go. But I wanted to get the post out as my trip gave me no opportunity. Thanks for your comments and emails whilst I have been away.

State Of The Markets

Posted on July 16, 2013 Posted in Commodities, Currencies, Demographics, Geomagnetism, Indicators, Macro, Stocks33 Comments

The SP500 followed the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq to new highs, on good breadth with healthy leading sectors. A marginal new high is normal in a topping process, but we would expect to see some kind of warning flags developing in terms of leading indicators if not in internals. We would also expect any new high to still be within an overall topping range, so not to run away too far. Here is one such topping model:

Source: Zevcapitalresearch

So might stocks get pulled back soon? Earnings reports are just getting going so too soon to assess beat rates, but earnings season usually produces a bullish or bearish theme. Geomagnetism continues to disturb and diverge from performance in some key stock markets. I have highlighted a historic rhyme below, which would be consistent with a topping process and then a fall in earnest in US equities:

I have updated all models on the site this morning.

ECRI leading indicators for the US have changed trend:

Source: ECRI / Dshort

And the ISM manufacturing and services composite is also trending down:

Source: Bespoke

World GDP is also in a steadily weakening trend, which is in line with my expectations based on the confluence of negative demographic trends now in place between US, Europe and China. I have marked their respective demographic peaks to illustrate:

Underlying source: Economist

Because of the demographics, my primary expectation is that the economic data will indeed continue to weaken and in due course topple the stock market. The alternative would be that the collective efforts of central banks are sufficient to prop up the global economy to a sufficient degree to maintain the low-growth-low-rates environment which is positive for equities. So all eyes on the leading indicators.

The US stock market is now in the top 3 most expensive by CAPE globally. Again from my demographic work, high price-earnings valuations can go higher if demographic trends are positive. However, the US is in a period of negative demographic trend so the expensive valuation is an anomaly that should be corrected in due course.

Crude oil has continued its upward trend and cemented its breakout. Gold and silver look to have carved out bottoms, though still tentative. The CCI commodities index has now been in a two week uptrend. So still early developments for commodities, but I maintain there is a greater likelihood of the historically typical process of commodities starting to outperform whilst equities make a multi-month topping process (with bonds already having topped), and eventually commodities topping last as they help tip the economy into recession. Another possible development in support of this would be if the US dollar broke down from its recent uptrend following Bernanke’s softer QE stance that came out last week. A chart by Niels here:

Source: Niels Orskov / Stockcharts

So as things stand, I maintain my overall expectation that stocks are in the first half of a multi-month topping process, with a marginal new high being carved out currently that should soon be turned back down. Commodities should outperform here forwards. Leading indicators should weaken sufficiently to prevent further advance in equities, but not too drastically to sink commodities. Moving into 2014 commodities should peak as they suck the remaining life out of the global economy, which is already vulnerable due to collective demographics of the major nations. Whether they can do this around the time of the solar maximum, as per history, remains to be seen, as the experts continue to diverge on forecasting when the solar maximum will be or was. The sunspot trend remains messy for now.

Trading-wise, if equities can rally a little higher here whilst we see a little more leading indicator or earnings degredation come to light, I will take off some more from the long side and add on the short side. Meanwhile I continue to sit on my ample commodities long positions.

Trading Update

Posted on July 10, 2013July 10, 2013 Posted in Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Demographics, Geomagnetism, Indicators, Lunar Cycles, Macro, Stocks31 Comments

I have taken profits on Nikkei longs today and added short on the French CAC. We are now switching into the lunar negative fortnight, with a geomagnetic storm also in progress, and I believe we are in a multi-month topping process in equities. I expect the topping process to be an overall volatile range lasting into September before falls in earnest, but within that I want to sell into strength and buy into weakness.

The Nikkei trade has been a big earner as I was aggressive into the pullback, based on my demographic research. Now this is how it stands: close to a 61 fib retrace of the falls, and arching over:

I maintain the expectation that it will eventually break upwards out of its long term downsloping resistance, but wish to step back for the lunar negative period and with the belief that if global equities are topping another leg down in equities should be next.

US retail and discretionary broke out to new highs along with small caps, which is bullish, but marginal new highs are normal in a topping process. There is a possibility US earnings now pull back equities, as shown by the historic correlation between USD strength and revenue misses:

We also see encouraging signs that commodities may be beginning outperformance, with crude oil pushing on again yesterday and agriculture strong the last couple of sessions, despite USD strength. A topping process in equities beginning as commodities start to outperform would be very much in line with 2007/8:

Overbearish sentiment has been stretched like an elastic band on most commodities and commodity currencies for some time now, so mean reversion also supports a rally, plus Goldman and JPM have been putting out notes arguing for some fresh upside now in the class.

Sentiment has also been very bearish on treasuries for some time now, as yields have risen 70% from their lows. I am considering taking profits on short treasuries also. My thinking is that a pullback in yields is due, and I am wondering whether a combination of the fast-rising yields together with continued soft economic data (expectations based on demographics) will bring about a softening/backtracking in wording related to the announced pull back in QE. Such a development, either in yields or in policy, should then benefit precious metals. Just speculation, but as part of my overall case for a transition in the fortunes of asset classes this summer.

I continue to look for evidence in leading indicators for a weakening in economic data that the combined demographics of USA, Europe and China suggest should occur.

Based on the latest OECD data, we see fairly flat narrow real money and leading leading indicator, neither giving much clue as to future trend, but strong enough as things stand:

Source: Moneymovesmarkets

And to finish, Citigroup economic surprises for the US. We see economists clearly struggling with data expectations following 2008 in the wild swings oscillating up and down, but gradually getting to grips as the swings range narrows:

Source: Yardeni

If this were a stock we’d be expecting a resolution to the triangle, and as can be seen we may have one. Maybe there’s nothing to read into this, but if anyone has any thoughts I’d be interested to hear.

State Of The Markets

Posted on July 7, 2013July 8, 2013 Posted in Commodities, Currencies, Deflation, Demographics, Geomagnetism, Indicators, Inflation, Lunar Cycles, Macro, Real Estate, Solar Cycles, Stocks33 Comments

No collapse in the stock market, which makes the case stronger for a more regular multi-month topping process. It would be historically normal for equities to retest their May highs and even make a marginally new high, then complete a volatile trading range by around September time before falling in earnest.

Also historically normal would be if commodities outperform from here, with bonds having topped first, then stocks topping, and eventually commodities topping out, likely in 2014. The continued falls in bonds – and rise in yields – adds weight to bonds having topped – and yields bottomed – in 2012. Now are world equities in the process of making their top?:

Source: Bloomberg

The strong advance in crude oil of late has added more weight to commodities going on to outperform here, rather than the historically abnormal but deflationary case of commodities sinking. The combination of protest and unrest in Egypt together with speculation in crude oil are both historically normal for a solar maximum, so I am encouraged. Nonetheless, crude oil has yet to truly break out and some geopolitical dampening could pull it back:

Source: Stockcharts

If crude does continue to rise, then commodities as a whole should catch a bid, due to high historic correlation, with oil a a key input in the agri process and a key inflationary force, which brings us to gold. Gold has dropped around 30% from its 2011 high, which is similar to the percentage drop made in 2008. It has the potential to be making a bottom here with a higher low than in late June, and the longstanding overdue bounce based on extreme bearishness, but only if it can rise this coming week, which brings back to oil’s performance, plus also the US dollar.

The recent strength in the USD has taken the currency to back up to a key level. Below is the long term view and the potential for an important breakout:

Source: Rambus / Stockcharts

However, as per my demographic work, I believe leading indicators will weaken and gold will re-assert itself, and US stocks will top out here reducing demand for the dollar. Here is some evidence to support that view.

The latest global PMI combined services and manufacturing dropped to 51.4 from 52.9 and continues the overall weakening trend over the last few years. This is as I would expect under the combined deflationary demographics of USA, China and Europe since around 2010.

Source: Markit

The performance in corporate bonds suggests US housing may be about to turn down again also:

Source: Martin Pring

And margin debt continues to look an important pointer for the stock market. See below how a sharp run up in margin debt, a final parabolic rise, precedes the 2000 and 2007 tops in the SP500 by several months. We have seen a similar parabolic rise since mid-2012 to now and there is the possibility that margin debt peaked out in April which would suggest stocks should indeed be in a topping process now and over the next couple of months:

Source: Dshort

If stocks are topping out then normal clues would be found in negative divergences in stock market internals and leading indicators. For the former, we should look for breadth divergence once we see a retest of the highs. For the latter, we have the potential in the global PMI above, but also in this leading indicator of leading indicators, by RecessionAlert:

Source: RecessionAlert

I have enquired with them what this MBS indicator is, but have no reply. If anyone knows, please share. But it would fit with my demographic-deflationary expectations.

We also see a potential divergence in geomagnetism, if equities can now rally again to a retest of the highs:

The ideal combination by my work and research is for commodities to outperform again now into next year, and make a speculative peak near to the solar peak (the timing of the solar peak remains unknown, with the experts still diverging. Sunspots are currently back up over 100, which adds to the muddy trend), then deflationary demographics to mean the global economy fairly quickly tips into recession under that commodity price pressure, and then we should see the steep falls in nominal stocks. My alternative scenario is that the deflationary forces are too great and commodities in general sink with just gold, as the anti-demographic, eventually coming again alone.

In support of my primary scenario, the action in live cattle has been very much aligned with solar history, with what looks like a peak earlier this year:

Source: Tarassov

Source: TradingCharts

Now we need to see other commodities make a fresh rally to new highs, assuming a solar peak is still ahead.

This week we have the new moon on Monday and the end of the lunar positive period by Thursday. So I am ideally looking for equities to rise further in the next couple of days and make that retest of the highs or marginally higher high, then retracing again in the negative lunar period ahead, to further the technical look of a topping process. If we get that retest of the highs then I will be looking to sell equities longs and add short. But for further support I would like to see oil break out, commodities to rise en masse and the US dollar to be turned down with gold catching a bid at last. Let’s see how the action unfolds.

Demographics, Disinflation and Deflation

Posted on June 23, 2013June 23, 2013 Posted in Bonds, Commodities, Demographics, Indicators, Inflation, Macro, Stocks53 Comments

I have enlightened myself again this weekend, and I feel just in time. More outlook changing research. These last 4 months or so have been a real leap forward in understanding, personally. So yes, some of my views have changed, parts of the site need updating, but let’s get to the important. Demographics not only dictate ‘secular’ bull and bear markets in stocks and real estate, but also play a major role in inflation, disinflation and deflation.

It is labour force growth or shrinkage playing a key role in price inflation. A swell of people aged 15-20 entering the workforce works up price inflation through spending, whereas more people entering old age relative to the work force is disinflationary through saving and disinvestment. There are correlations with inflation in labour force growth (15-60), young labour force percentage (15-40) and dependency ratios (inverted – old and young versus the working population), all of which are approximations of the same idea. It’s another simple but powerful mechanism, in the same way swells in the ‘investment’ age group produces equity bull markets.

Countries with ageing populations have generally experienced low inflation in recent years, whereas younger countries have experienced higher inflation, due to the resultant spending boom:

Source: Andrew Cates

Japan’s proportion of 15-40 year olds has historically correlated with inflation levels:

Source: James Bullard

Japan’s working force growth projection suggests Japan will not successfully reinstate inflation this decade, but will at least manage to change the trend as of around this year:

Source: Andrew Cates

Here is the 15-40 year old ratio history versus inflation for the USA, also showing the correlation with inflation:

Source: James Bullard

And two projections forward:

Source: James Goulding

The charts suggest the USA should be tipping from disinflation into deflation. That is, if we assume the Fed is powerless to stop it.

Now look at dependency ratios for some of the main countries, we first see that collective trends historically matched broad global inflation history (nb: dependency ratios are not inverted in this chart):

Dependency ratios collectively fell (i.e workforce proportions grew) between 1965 and 1980, which was a period of rampant inflation. Since then we have seen overall disinflation, and this is confirmed below:

Looking forward, we see collective deflationary dependency ratio trends in the major nations, with the exception of India and Brazil (nb: dependency ratios are inverted in this chart):

The alternative 15-40 ratio measure paints a similar picture of price deflation ahead for five of the most important economies:

This explains why ZIRP and QE have failed to bring about inflation in Japan and now the USA. These countries want to inflate, but the demographic trends mean the public just won’t spend sufficiently in the economy for it to happen. For the majority of the major nations, this is a problem going forward, as the demographic trends persist and worsen. For the global economy, this is a problem, because the combined GDP of Brazil and India and other smaller positive-demographic countries is much smaller than the combined influence of the USA, China and Europe.

So what’s likely to happen? The central banks of these countries are largely pushing on a string. They can’t force spending and investment, they can just use ‘carrot and stick’ tools to encourage spending and investment and discourage saving and cash. The evidence suggests that disinflation should continue. The risk is that disinflation turns into deflation, as the demographic trends suggest. The global economy is at risk of falling into a new recession, or even depression. It explains why the recovery since 2009 has been spotty and weak. The central banks will likely have to persist with ZIRP and QE and perhaps also deploy other unorthodox tools, but which would likely have the same lack of potency. If deflation takes hold, then debts would grow, savers and currency holders would be beneficiaries, and investment would become unattractive because future prices would be lower. Risk asset markets would fall.

So why are equity markets so strong currently? We have disinflation and low growth, together with the ZIRP and QE easy money conditions. Whilst the former two conditions hold, then speculation is encouraged by the latter two. It would take a plunge into recession and deflation to generate the exodus out of stocks, and it is such a development that a couple of analysts that I respect are touting (e.g. Russel Napier, using the Q ratio, predicts the SP500 to bottom at 400 in 2014). With this new research, I now understand why.

But could this benign status quo continue, with low growth and pro-speculation conditions, with the central banks acting together to maintain such conditions? Well, I would repeat that all they can do is encourage and discourage through their limited toolkit. They can’t force. The demographic trends are now united negative in USA, China and Europe, which provides a powerful downward pressure. There are less new investors coming to market, and more leaving. So how can stocks keep rising? I suggest the answer lies in the current margin debt situation:

Source: NY Times

Stock market participants have increasingly borrowed and leveraged in the market. So it’s not more investors but the same investors buying more and more on credit, and as the graphic shows, when margin debt reached over 2.5% of GDP previously, the stock market fell into a cyclical bear subsequently.

Here is the correlation between the S&P composite p/e ratio and the middle-old demographic ratio for the USA, with projection:

It suggests a fair p/e of around 10 by next year. As of Friday’s close the p.e was 18.4. A shrinking of p/e can be achieved either by stocks holding up nominally but strong inflation eating away at the valuation, or it can be achieved by stocks tanking under no-inflation or deflationary conditions. By the demographic projections further up the page, the second option appears likely. This would also mean US stocks could be in for severe falls ahead.

Deutsche Bank produced the next chart which shows US market cap as a percentage of GDP versus middle-old demographics. SMC as %GDP is a valuation measure for the stock market and the second chart below shows where we currently stand, which is very much overvalued versus the demographic forecast in the first chart:

Source: Business Insider

Source: Vector Grader

Again this suggests the US stock market should be in for sharp falls, both real and nominally, because the demographics don’t support inflation. I therefore believe US stocks should be a good shorting opportunity ahead, together with Europe and China. However, I still think Japan is set to do well as a long equities bet. The pick up in labour force growth for Japan, shown higher up the page, from this year looks set to change the deflationary trend even though true inflation looks set to remain elusive. So that suggests at least stabilisation in the economy. However, equity prices could grow much stronger, in line with the M/Y ratio:

The next two years is a particularly good demographic period for Japan as middle-old and net investors measures also rise. Plus Japan is playing catch up to demographic trends that turned up as of around 2002. I maintain that Japanese stocks took off then but were pulled back by the global crisis of 2007/8. So, the question is whether they would again be dragged back by a new global recession and a stocks bear in most of the major nations. I don’t think they would be immune, but I would still expect them to outperform and eventually deliver their demographic fulfillment. Plus, there is a chance of a fast speculative boom. Current monetary conditions encourage bubbles, and the new Japanese government has upped the ante by saying it will buy equities as part of its reflationary policy. With speculative behaviour also at peaks around solar maxima, I think there is a chance Japanese equities could go crazy, and so I will maintain long Japanese equities and add on any further retreats.

Now one more demographic correlation, this time with government bonds. This work by Credit Suisse is the same simple idea: the ratio of those who are predisposed to buying government bonds to those who are really not determines the long term path of bond yields:

Source: Credit Suisse

For the US and Europe we see a change in demographic trend has taken place over the last 10 years which should see outflows from bonds going forward, and yields therefore rising. The US changed trends first, which suggests treasuries are belatedly falling to trend now, and that the flows out of treasuries are justified.

If a sharp cyclical bear does occur in equities, then we would have a similar deflationary shock to 2008. In that experience, most assets were sold off as people needed to raise cash to pay for losses elsewhere. Gold did not escape. It was government bonds that were the recipient of the money flows. Would they be this time?

Let’s turn to gold. Historically, gold has performed well when demographics have been in negative trends. I recently showed that the Dow-gold ratio had bottomed and topped very closely with demographic turns in both the USA and UK. Below, the same p/e demographic ratio as shown further up the page but with the gold price added also shows the inverse correlation:

Source: Glenn Morton

You may read that in the 1970s gold rose as an inflation hedge, in the 2000s gold rose under disinflationary conditions, and gold also performed as a deflation hedge in 1933. Gold is touted as a hedge against systemic risk and financial market instability, as hard currency or as a store of value under conditions of negative rates or currency dilution. What I would suggest is that gold is the go-to, the default investment, under certain demographic conditions, i.e. ‘negative’ demographic conditions. When demographic trends are counter equities and real estate and government bonds then gold becomes attractive by default. This ‘last resort’ status is reflected in gold’s real performance over time, namely it goes nowhere in the long term.

When equity p/es are declining under m/o demographics, and stock market interest is in decline due to m/y and net investor demographics, but labour force growth demographics are inflationary, then we have disinvestment in the stock market but price inflation in the economy. This was the 1970s, and reflects the broad collective downtrends in demographics amongst the major nations at the time. Gold and commodities outperformed.

When equity p/es are advancing under m/o demographics, and stock market interest is increasing due to m/y and net investor demographics, and yuppie/nerd demographics are pro bonds, and labour force growth demographics are price disinflationary, then we have investment in the stock market and bond market and price disinflation in the economy. This was 1980-2000 for most of the major nations, although Japan changed demographic trends circa 1990 and went its own way. Equities and bonds outperformed.

From 2000 to current, we saw some divergence in demographics. For the USA, equity p/es were declining under m/o demographics, stock market interest was in decline due to m/y and net investor demographics, and labour force growth demographics were disinflationary, so we had disinvestment in the stock market (secular bear market) and price disinflation in the economy. However, Europe largely retained positive demographic trends until mid-decade and China until around 2010. China’s conditions were price inflationary, and as the biggest consumer of commodities, commodities had a demand story. Some have suggested that gold performed well in the 2000s under disinflationary conditions, i.e. that it is a beneficiary under disinflation, which may be true. However, the picture is muddied because of the price inflationary China demographics which could equally have been the story for gold’s rising, partnering with commodities again.

Which brings us to now and the next few years ahead. We see more united demographic trends again. For the USA, China and Europe, equity p/es should be declining under m/o demographics, real estate interest should be declining under m/o and dependency ratio demographics, stock market interest should be in decline due to m/y and net investor demographics, yuppie/nerd demographics should be counter government bonds, and labour force growth demographics should be price deflationary. So we should see disinvestment in the stock market and bond market and price deflation in the economies of these countries. What would be the winner under such conditions? I believe it has to be gold, as the default, go-to asset again. I suggest this would be the difference to 2008, as government bonds have changed trends and with ZIRP still making cash unattractive, money has to flow somewhere. If the solar maximum is ahead this year and this deflationary shock happens 2013-2014 with gold the recipient, then we would once again produce a secular peak close to the solar maximum.

What about commodities? I am not sure if commodities as a whole would be winners in such a deflationary shock. I have my doubts, because the demand story should be on the wane, and they are a class for inflationary trends. I believe the question is whether they collectively would become a speculative target, rather than an economic demand target. If equities are close to topping then commodities could go outperform here in the historically-usual pattern of topping last as the economy rolls over. However it would be done so most likely on speculative interest, rather than tight inventories. Geopolitical or climate events could play a part, particularly as the solar maximum has historically inspired protest, revolution and temperature peaks. The solar maximum has also historically seen speculative climaxes, so the potential for commodities as a class to rise is possible, particularly if oil took off. However, I am now very much open to the alternative, which is that the price deflationary demographic trends, particularly in China, take down commodity prices from here, and precious metals perform alone. I am therfore going to refrain from adding any more to my long commodity positions for now, and watch developments.

In short, I think calls that gold’s bull market is over are premature, as it is the counter-demographic go-to asset. Equities are on borrowed time due to counter demographic performance and margin debt. Collective demographic trends in USA, China and Europe are not in favour of stocks or real estate, nor pro-government bonds. Price deflationary trends are in place, which means falls are likely to be hard in nominal terms for risk assets. Commodities may not escape this, unless they are initially speculated to a peak and then join the falls. We don’t really have a precedent for such a coming together of trends, but I believe gold should be the winner as bonds, equities and real estate are counter demographic and cash is unattractive under ZIRP. I want to short stock indices from USA, China or Europe, but want to play long Japan, as it is the demographic exception. Brazil and India are also positive-demographic, but are not likely to escape a sell-off. I want to add long there post-falls. I will remain short treasuries and long precious metals.

I stated at the top of the post that I believed this analysis to be just in time. By that I mean I suspect equities could fall hard at any time, and that’s the position I want to add to my portfolio: short stock indices. I can now see more of a case why US equities could be in an eiffel tower formation and about to collapse. So I am going to add short without delay. If China liquidity and emerging market issues don’t escalate this week and set off sharp declines, then I would ideally still like to see a more regular topping process with another attempt at highs before rolling over, over the next couple of months.

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Demographics, Disinflation and Deflation