Dear all, it’s time for a break from the blog.
I understand that even as a free blog there is a kind of duty to the visitors so I apologise for any disappointment. I am very appreciative of the regular readers and contributors.
I need a break from punching out my postings and administrating the site and will be back in the future. Until then you know my views and as most of my stuff is medium to long term those views are unlikely to change, barring any radical developments. All the material on the site will stay where it is.
I wish you all the best.
John
Hi John
Thanks for all of your analysis and the time you have spent educating people.
Hopefully we will se you back soon.
All the best.
Regs
Viren
Hi John
Thanks very much for all your posts and thought-provoking analysis. I have found it all very insightful.
Best wishes to you and have a very merry Christmas/holiday and a great new year. Hope to ‘see’ you again in the future.
Bill
Hi John,
I also want to thank for all you’ve done.
I learned and appreciate some aspects that I never thought were so important.
I hope you come back soon.
God bless you.
José
John,
Thank you for your posts. I look forward to your return.
Joe
Dear John, your analysis where always very helpful! I hope you will be back soon. 2016 will be different thrilling/unsettling. Kind regards, Felix
John, I’ve not posted here before. But, I am a faithful reader of your blog. Thanks for taking the time and expending the energy to share through this blog. These blog contents will remain a treasure trove of information.
Thanks again,
Aubrey, “JrBoy”
John,
Many thanks for the yeoman’s work. Solarcycles has become a must read for me over the years. Your presentation, articulation and elegant way of explaining things has been such a welcome and comfort as I wrestle to understand the markets.
As we move into the holiday season I wish you and your family a joyous time and a very happy New Year. Congratulations on all your ground breaking posts and for unearthing the validity of the Solarcycle as it pertains to markets. Unlike some readers I do not need waterfall declines to see validation in your work. It would be nice for you and others to realize perhaps, but there is so much more here on this site that is of value. What you have created and shared with us in this virtual community is more than merely just finding some rationale to be on the right side of a trade.
All the best,
HVA
I agree, HVA. This site is the only one I read every day for John’s articles which are useful and for the excellent commentary from the blog posts. Thanks, John.
So long – and thanks for all the fish! See you anon.
Might as well post a chart, so long as I’m here – and note the full moon..
http://schrts.co/3FgSKL
After the Fed I planned to supply the Christmas tree lights with a variable voltage inversely proportional to the DXY and seek further enlightenment. Maybe I should rig that up right now.
Hi John,
I get it, but you’ll still be missed. You have great insight and perspective.
Do what you need to do and I’m sure we’ll see you back I the future.
Take Care,
Al Vom Steeg
At times it is good to step back from the markets and acquire a fresh view. Tunnel vision has its pluses and minuses. Enjoy your break from it all and have a look around before you return to the market trenches.
I don’t post on this blog much, but I’ve always been very impressed with the way you keep your cool in the face of taunts and jibes from some of the less polite people here. If nothing else, you are one classy guy. And your analysis is always well reasoned and first rate. Good luck and happy holidays.
Have a great vacation break;Thanks for all your efforts.
I hope you come back soon.
All the best.
Jeff, Netherlands
Thank you for your posts.
All the best from the Netherlands
I’m a long time follower of this site. I’ve learned a lot from John’s fantastic and real-time recording of thoughts on markets since I found this site two years ago. I’ve also made decent profit since then, i.e., 50% a year for the last two consecutive years. Many thanks to John! I really appreciate it.
However, John’s analyses have been fundamentally wrong in my opinion. For example, he thinks solar cycle is dominating the cycle of U.S stock markets. Although I agree that the Sun is an important factor on any market, there are tremendous amount of other factors also count. It’s impossible to give every factor a weight, put them together, and figure out the market’s next direction. Simply no way. Because every factor is ever changing.
Another mistake in John’s analyses is the history analogy. This is so wrong. When time is different, everything is different. People are amazing learners from the past. So don’t expect them to make the same mistake twice.
I’m sorry if my words seem offensive. I just want to share some true thoughts which might help. I hope I may read John’s new posts with new thoughts in the near future.
Happy thanksgiving to everyone!
‘People are amazing learners from the past.’
How then do you explain bubble after bubble, war after war, currency collapse after currency collapse? Mankind has an incredibly short memory, probably because the masses are lead by the most advanced in our species in an effort to improve their position, and the lessons of the past are ignored or distorted. But couldn’t disagree more that we learn.
The bubbles are built into the system in a way, this is how a monetary debt-based system works. Because everyone and everything in it are always having to compete for jobs, business, profit, position and let’s face it survival, the cycles we go through are in a way a symptom of the abuse the system inflicts. Combine this with central bank controlled credit expansion and contraction and I would make the point that bubbles are inevitable.
You have to look at the effects that a monetary system has on individuals and businesses. It drives potentially everyone to do almost anything.
As I have said before, at best the use of “money” to regulate/control and distribute resources is very inefficient now. At worst, it causes wars, crime and violence. The evidence is there for all to see – but people cannot fathom any other system due to limitations in consciousness (I guess).
We do learn from the past, it is just that a lot of what we thought we learned was a narrative and incorrect or untrue and we remain unaware. Most people still believe that the monetary system is the best or only way. Others admit defeat and say things like “it will never change”. The last statement is almost certain to be incorrect over a longer time frame.
I do agree that humans have a very short memory though (at least in certain ways), but we are also subjected to considerable abuse from a divisive system. It means for example that as a person living in the UK, I have over the past few weeks seen thousands of outpourings of grief over the atrocities in Paris. I have seen nothing though over similar atrocities in developing areas of the world, almost as if those humans are not worth as much as those similar to us (and closer). The point is, we do not have the *capacity* under these abusive conditions to care too much about others, and less if they are not family or “different” to us. We compete for jobs with others, we take on debt just to have a home for our families, we spend 8-10 hours per day 5 days a week at these jobs to repay the debt and to buy essentials that we need to survive. This diminishes our capacity to care for others and to think about why the system clearly doesn’t work. Not for most people.
Bubbles are a feature of this system, our learning is skewed and our capacity is reduced in terms of learning, even if we did get the right lesson. That is the way it is. Can we change it? Can we stop “bubbles”? I believe we can, but not within this abusive and outdated system…imho.
BTW John, thanks for all your work – I hope to see you after your break and more importantly I hope all is OK with you.
All the best
J
jeger, we disagree about money and society, so little point debating it again. Bubbles would happen without money, it’s human nature, and solar influences on our behaviour.
I feel sad for anyone that still believes that CBs control credit, but there we go, that narrative is pervasive at the moment, even though it’s not the case, it’s banks that control credit creation.
Mankind is doomed to repeat errors, we seem to agree that it’s a fight for survival, the strongest will thrive, the weak will suffer. C’est la vie.
The Fed was born with the sole objective of preventing bubbles and stock market crashes – its got a 100% failure record.
You cannot prevent bubbles, they happen in every market but at differing times of a cycle.
EVERY major turning point in the market is linked – if you cannot stop TIME then you can’t stop the bubbles/crashes – the one thing that you can’t do is predict price levels so one drop might only fall 10% when the next time it might plunge 30% – I’ve not found a way to predict price levels with accuracy until after the fact which is no good for trading/investing but I have found TIME can be forecast with amazing accuracy.
Best public blog on the internet, you will be missed.
Thank you for opening my mind to the effects of solar and planetary on the stock markets. The following discussions are enlightening and entertaining.
Best wishes until the next post…..
Firstly, thanks John for your regular posts, your inclusion of solar/lunar cycles has been a revelation for me, and your market commentary is always worth hearing. Enjoy your break, I hope it’s not too long before you’re back.
Secondly, oh dear, how sad to hear this news. Apart from your posts, this blog has become a very good place to hang out, share views, debate, have a little fun with a bunch of decent informed people from around the world. Hmmm. Bummer.
I am wondering if the regulars (who comment) would be interested in trying to find a way to continue to interact? I blog elsewhere (infrequently) on a shared blog, and that place has been very quiet, hardly any posts (despite having a few posters). I’d be happy to put something up there every weekend, even if just a couple of charts to start a new post.
Any thoughts folks? Any other ideas, or do we all say our farewells for now?
Thank you John for the diligence, insight, and work in moving this blog forward. I wish you and your blessings during this holiday season and look forward to your return. hopefully, we will continue to see a tweet here and there.
regarding the ongoing blog, perhaps we should just continue posting our thoughts on this thread until John’s return? or via twitter. @scott_minnesota
Thanks for your efforts and hope all is well.
Happy Thanksgiving
Weak Ftse (long-term):
https://www.tradingview.com/x/igNIrG81/
On this Thanksgiving I’m thankful for many things, not the least of which is John and the work that he shares with us all out of the goodness of his heart. Many thanks John!
But of course I’m also sad to read that we won’t be hearing from you for a while. Even so, I hope you will enjoy the break and if you decide to come back, do so only when you’re ready, whether that’s weeks or months or years from now. Wishing all the best to you and your family this holiday season and always.
John, Thanks a lot for your posts. Best wishes.
To be fair to those who read my recent posts on NG I have offset by NG longs with a minor loss. I spent much of this Thanksgiving Day doing further research on the Weather. If the Artic Oscillation does not go Negative then the trend is strong for a mild to very mild Winter. The first phase/wave to start the process of turning the AO negative won’t happen until this weekend and the second won’t happen until next weekend. Neither is expected to do the job. The AO isn’t expected to go Negative until January. Thus, I now expect that half the Delta Intermediate Crash Window will crash the Energies lower (I-1 as a low) and, then, a crash higher (I-2 as a high) IF the AO is trending strongly to negative at that time which would make a “V” bottom.
I am considering taking a long position on Cocoa as it channel trades higher instead of long NG.
Thanks Richard. I hope you will continue to post here.
Here we go. Half a dozen Conflicting Richard comments a day.
Over a year ago I learned about Air Tides which lead me to Lunar Declinations which lead me to this blog. I have continued to increase by understanding of Planetary Weather along with Celestial Bodies and how they effect Markets. In the past two weeks my understanding of Planetary Weather has gone parabolic. Every time I learn more I readjust everything I knew prior.
For instance: Why are Cocoa Futures in Backwardation? Does this have to do with the Weather? If so, why or how? Will this trend continue or accelerate? (Delta’s coming Intermediate Crash/Inversion Window for Cocoa points towards a potential crash up just like what I was looking for in the Energies. Note that this year’s S+P 500/DOW crash was in it’s Intermediate Crash/Inversion Window wherein it made a crash window “V” bottom of its I-1 as a low and a rare “replacement” Inbetween Point for its I-2 high. The Energies now look to do the same as Stocks did this past summer; crashing to a low I-1; however, Cocoa could do the opposite and crash upwards to is I-1 as a high and not a low.)
I agree.
I agree with what John Li said.
Great work Richard… a clinic on the 36 Saturn-Neptune cycle. There 7 waning square aspects between 1800 and 2016. Each lasting between 9 to 11 months in length. The orb of influence can be up to 9 months on either side of the exact aspect so these are frustrating measurements for trades to time. I liken it more to a weather report which are in the short run not as reliable as determining the climate or seasonality of weather for example. But that said we are on the look out for both TOO MUCH water and not enough. All things related to liquidity can reverse direction now. Interest rates, and their relationship to business activity. Commodity prices especially oil and Nat Gas. Agriculture particularly affected by rainfall or lack thereof.
Your posts are magnificent. With an open mind and eye to glean your nuanced understanding I think there is also value in your posts so thank you.
A bit back you were a chomping at the bit about Brazil. I believe you were early. Would love an update. I think it’s finally time to nimble.
Best,
HVA
THANK YOU! John for all the great work. I have enjoyed your blog and do feel free to come and go at your convenience. We appreciate you.
John,
Thank you so much for providing such a great quality forum.
Enjoy your break and hope to read your posts again sometime
in the future, thanks again.
Thank you very much John for your work, it’s the first time I write but since I discovered your site, I visit it daily. Your analysis is very helpfull but maybe not for it’s accuracy due to long term vision but nevertheless gives food for thought. An other important point is that you have gathered a community very heterogeneous but reallly valuable. At the end noone is a guru just humble investors trying to solve the markets puzzle.
Hope you enjoy your rest and wish you all the best.
The one blog I truly look forward to checking each weekend!! John, thanks for sharing so much here including the time and energy it has taken to provide such excellent content in such an objective manner. I’ve truly following your work and will leave the tab open on my laptop in hopes that the hiatus is none too long. Have a great break, a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!!
For those (John Hampson and others) who are Long paper Gold: I feel your pain. However, I have steadily warned against being Long Gold for now. If you want to be Long something then try Cocoa futures. I think that a Super Spike is going to happen to Cocoa. Note that for the past four quarters America Cocoa Grind has been declining at an accelerating rate. This isn’t because of falling demand. It is because of falling Cocoa Bean production:
http://www.candyusa.com/data-insights/cocoa-grinds-report/
At this point in time these are what I am targeting to position on:
First: A Super Spike in Cocoa.
Second: Maybe from January onwards, if the AO turns Negative; I Super Spike in Natural Gas.
Third: A new ATH of US stocks to short from.
Cocoa is entering into a “perfect storm”. Demand is strong due to falling Energy prices that are going to fall some more to a Delta low I-1. Cocoa Grind has declined for a year at an accelerating rate because of falling Cocoa Bean production due to ever dryer conditions in all major Cocoa producing nations and most importantly the Ivory Coast and Ghana.
A year ago the Harmattan Winds dryed out the Ivory Coast and Ghana which resulted in declining Cocoa Pod production. That is because of El Nino just starting to increase. This past Fall there was additional Dryness in the Ivory Coast and Ghana caused by El Nino. Now, it is a year latter and the Harmatten Winds will most likely be worst that they were a year ago because El Nino is much more powerful that a year ago. All the while, Energy prices have trended lower which is putting more money in Consumer’s pockets to spend on Candy.
While the Energies decline to a Delta low I-1 Cocoa will accelerate to a high I-1 and possible onwards to a high I-2 in a historical Super Spike.
This time, when Cocoa trades back up to its upper Channel Line of the past two months, I am expecting it to “breakout” above that rising upper Channel Line and run to a Super Spike.
John, my heartfelt thanks for your amazing analysis and focus. Wishing you and your family EVERYTHING GOOD for the Festive Season. Will wait to hear from you whenever you feel ready.
Your messages mean a lot, thanks everyone
Your being against Wave Counts is valid as it concerns Elliot Waves but is absolutely invalid as it concerns Delta Waves. I hope that during this time off you take a look at the Delta book and if you never have then it will be a real shock as to what Celestial Bodies can do to markets.
what happened to Steve T?
given the hiatus John H is taking, I decided to go back and reread some blogs around key movements that occurred over the last several months. Steve was one of the few that called the waterfall on aug 24th to the day.
btw, i highly recommend going back through John’s excellent content over the last several months since we now will be without for an unknown period of time.
at this time seems like most feel we need to hit ATHs to trigger the termination (including precter’s group on elliot wave)
spiral has been looking for a significant drop on monday 2042-2047. lets see what volume does when it returns next week.
I’ll wager most bulls haven’t spotted this today, and even if they have, will ignore it, just like the 20th August. Sleep well little bulls.
http://screencast.com/t/lfUdFaYIHkH
How the hell do bubbles happen without money??? Haha ffs.
J
As we have had money for over 6,000 years and will have it for at least the rest of our days, one of us is going to die pissed at the existence of money, whilst ignorant of the true causes of our ever-repeating troubles: we’re just animals fighting for survival. I’m sure you and Gene Rodenberry can commune in the afterlife about these matters.
You are unable to imagine cavemen hoarding items they considered to be of value, creating a bubble without price? Tribal battles over these items? The imagination of these cavemen that these items will forever be worth hoarding and fighting over? No need for money to create bubbles, one need only consider our history. Money is just a method of accounting for what is owed to someone else, someone more advanced, more productive, stronger, wealthier, or from such a genetic pool.
Hoarding is generally caused by scarcity. We have the means to create abundance, we really do. Money exacerbates hoarding (because it creates shortage), and whilst it was perhaps not designed to do so originally it may as well have been. Think about it, we use money to control and distribute resources – that is all it does. “Keeping an account of who owes who” is a very dated statement from someone who cannot try to see past the current paradigm in my opinion.
To my memory we have not debated anything at all, I think you told me I was wrong and used a little ridicule along the way. Let’s see if we can get past that.
The difference between us is that I have taken onboard the possibility that the Euro may be the next reserve currency as a result of your arguments in that direction. I can change my mind and take in new information. Maybe some day you will gain the advantage of doing the same.
One thing you said above that does intrigue me however is the statement “whilst ignorant of the true causes of our ever-repeating troubles”. This would be interesting to explore especially if you can do so without insults and condescension. Remember, I am not your enemy – I am trying to help you. So with that in mind, what do you think are the causes of our “ever-repeating troubles”? And one more question which really only requires a yes or no answer for now: “do you think that the monetary system works well for the majority?”
Remember, I am not here to catch anyone out or to ridicule you or anyone else. These are sincere questions offered in the spirit of debate.
J
I did consider your point of view, you linked to the guy (can’t recall his name) who imagined a world without money and plenty for all. I read it, considered it, ruled it out as impossible as it denies our nature as a species and our environment (including major long-term cycles, such as major ice-ages).
So, I don’t need any help thanks, I accept reality, and live within it, I don’t spend time on issues I have considered and discarded. No offence intended, I think I was polite when we looked at this last time.
Hi GM
A debate is where one goes into detail, it is too easy to say “I considered it and it is impossible”. I considered a resource-based “economy” for several years before I was at least partially convinced, but what made me come back to it time and time again was the fact that our current system doesn’t work. We can come back to your statement “it denies our nature as a species and our environment”, but how about the 2 questions I asked?
But, it is your choice of course also to say that you just do not want to debate this. If you took an hour to consider a totally different way of life and creating a society unlike one we have seen before, and dismissed the idea – it may just be that you do not *want* to debate this? It may be lack of motivation perhaps? I assume like me you are one of the people for whom the current system works very well – so maybe it is a lack of motivation?
So I am asking for answers to my 2 questions above, or of course confirmation that you do not want to actually debate this:)
We all need help. It wasn’t meant in a condescending way, try to put the emotions aside and let’s give this a go?
J
I don’t spend time on issues I have considered and discarded.
Hoarding is largely a psycological/spiritual condition. An actual scarcity could exacerbate the situation. Hoarding is fear and lack of faith in life. In St George and the Dragon, the Dragon represented the hoarder and holdfast in all of us. It hoarded jewels, gold, and beautiful damsels, but did not know what to do with them. So killing the dragon symbolizes killing holdfast and releasing life forces. Goldbugs seem to be populated with hoarders. In the Biblical story of the talents, the servant that hoarded away his one talent by burying it was condemned and his one talent taken away. As Joseph Campbell said, the moral to right living is joyful participation in the sorrows of life.
Creditbugs hoard credit (bank liabilities, junk bonds etc).
Why pick on goldbugs I wonder?
OK, thanks – I seem to remember that we ended here last time – without any debate.
I wish you all the best with your website which like my job and most on here would be defunct in a non-monetary system…….I guess enough said….haha
J
It is the religious like fervor I perceive. I have never heard “creditbug” before. I’m philosophical and have known a lot of goldbugs, I am kinda one myself, so I have thought about where they are coming from. Final analysis, they have a holdfast mentality. The recipients of the 2 talents and the 5 talent doubled their money. The one talent guy did not even put it at interest in the bank. Is that parallel coincidence?
Kent, did you just quote a myth?:)
Yes. I see many myths as wisdom/truth statements even though they may not be factual.
John, I have enjoyed your work tremendously. Spirit, health, and family number one priority. See above as well.
Thank you Jihn for all your past effort. All the best to you, your family and everyone else that posts on this blog.
I will end with one last word.
Why would anyone dump 100 ‘s of contracts into the open of NY COMEX gold trading over a period of 3 mins on what is one of the lightest, if not the lightest trading volume days of tne year when there was no global event to justify such a dump?
That, in and of itself is questionable behaviour given what the obvious outcome would be and yet it will undoubtedly go unchallenged just as it has every other time it has occurred.
One word….DISGRACEFUL…
All the best.
Allan, why did China’s stock market plunge by 5% on Friday?
Can you not see the connection?
Liquidity is drying up, he who sells first sells fastest.
Gold may have its final plunge ahead as we experience a liquidity freeze.
Then everything will change.
GM so why did Ag,Cu not get slammed to the same degree or more so given their greater industrial application?
Why did the US markets or European markets not sell off dramatically if it was a liquidity issue at that moment?
And honestly mate to say that it was a liquidity issue is just silly. Given how much was sold down in gold how liquidity would that have raised in the overall scheme of things……I will tell you. Ridiculously insignificant.
I have a couple of ideas here.:
1 Draghi leaked ahead of next week
2 Bullion banks will take any and every opportunity to create a washout so as to reposition.
Seriously GM go back over time and look at just how many times this type of trading has occured.
If it were just a few times a year I would say that it was nothing out of the ordinary.
However over the years it has occured dozens and dozens upon dozens of ocassions.
I’ve said it before and will say it again. Global banks caught rehanded rigging LIBOR, FX, mortgage securities and yet you and others refuse to accept that they would rig PM markets despite ALL the evidence to the contrary.
Mate I have seen the statistics on the whole commodity complex and these wild moves occur both upside and downside in ALL commodities, and is pretty much 50/50 in terms of balance of direction…….. EXCEPT in Au and Ag wher it is OVERWHELMINGLY in one direction……DOWN!
Yeah mate….it’s all just concidence.
Told ya before brother…..I have a bridge.
Cheers
Oh one last point. Why didn’t the sell off in Au begin in Asia if it had anything to with Shanghai?……..
because it had nothing at all to with Shanghai and was a perfectly coordinated raid by the large US BB’s whilst many traders were not paying 100% attention and to teach the Chinese a lesson.
Gold won’t ever save you.
Have a look at a copper chart for the past few weeks Allan, I don’t hear anyone saying that’s manipulated?
Gold is the most liquid market in the world, always will be (as there’ll always be a buyer), so it is really no surprise that big chunks of it (futures or XAU) get sold in a hurry on a day when the Chinese stock market is tanking, and the margin clerk is on the phone.
GM I have maintained that the whole commodity complex is manipulated to some degree within the greater trend, but it has already been proven beyond a shadow of any doubt that over 70% of Au significant moves are to the downside and worse for Ag, whilst every single other commodity it is virtually even.
I am trying to find the article that mathematically proves it and will post it when I do.
As for gold being the most liquid market?…..not even close…….not even close.
The leverage in the PM markets is reason alone to call for a full review. It is absolutey absurd the amount of leverage that sellers have been allowed to create without any requirement to back it with physical.
Those too that are calling a COMEX default are way off, as under current rules there can simply never ever be a default. It just can not happen.
What is going to happen is a total disconnect between the COMEX and physical markets which will ultimately result in the COMEX being exposed as a fraud.
I believe that day to be very close. Far closer than many realise.
Heavy selling into a thin markets will get you bad executions. So they must really be bearish on gold. Possibly, they have puts and are trying to manipulate the mkt down. If their is actually any bullishness in the market they will quickly take advantage of what would be a foolish move in a bull market.
Forced sellers Kent IMO, same as in the 2008 crunch.
Seems likely, trying to ahead of the crowd?
it’s called manipulating the market. Supposed to be illegal, but it’s been happening to the gold market over and over for as long as I’ve been following it.
Why, indeed? Well, maybe you buy a bunch of puts, then start selling futures contracts and drive the price down. That should be easy for the regulators to investigate. Maybe too easy, so maybe there are other schemes that would pay. Of maybe the regulators don’t care, or maybe there aren’t enough of them.
But it’s obvious it’s manipulation. However, this kind of manipulation cannot change the long term trend IMO. This is very short term stuff only. Long term the trend has been down and will continue to be down until it isn’t. Blaming that long term trend on manipulation is a waste of time, and if you’re trading that market, a waste of your hard earned dollars.
Agree – cause is success. Successful once – go for it again. Hedge Funds acting for their special clients, as was announced years ago. Nothing changes cos the client is the Big Brother Uncle of the USlings that want the dollar to be mightier than God so they can be a Big Brother Uncle in their afterlife thingy
A few years ago the argument was for “Peak” Oil in that energy prices were on their way to the stars. However, Father Sun had his say and crashed the energy markets with his Solar Cycle.
“Peak” anything should always be considered especially as it concerns Grand Strategy. In the here-and-now, I think the correct argument for “peakness” is Cocoa.
I think that –Peak Cocoa– has arrived and that Father Sun and Mother Moon are involved, together, for a run to the stars for Cocoa prices.
“Peak Cocoa” isn’t new. Here is an article from 2011 that discusses this issue. Note that the article is predicting Peak Cocoa three years into the future and so far it looks accurate in that Mother Moon (El Nino) has greatly increased the odds that Peak Cocoa has occurred in 2014:
http://peakoil.com/consumption/peak-chocolate-world%E2%80%99s-supply-of-sustainable-cocoa-could-run-out-by-2014
Here is a sight that may help many of this sight to become “educated”. There is a difference to being “schooled” and being “educated” and history shows that the UK elite know the difference wherein almost no Americans know it.
I am an American but I am rare in that I know the difference as well. I do have a college degree in business but I almost never mention it because to do so usually results in others trying to put those “blinders” back on me of that schooling in order to control me or reduce me down to becoming controlled by them.
This sight is a step in the right direction of taking off the blinders of having been “schooled” and becoming more “educated”:
http://peakoil.com/category/consumption
That sight discusses more than just Peak Oil such as Peak Storage of Oil and Natural Gas along with other “peaks” such as Cocoa etc.
Richard, are you extremely bullish on cocoa. The last time peak cocoa was being talked about, 2011, it was a significant top. Of course, peak oil talk was the peak in oil. Cocoa and oil charts remind me of each other, oil peaked in 2008 and collapsed that year as well. It then rallied back to a lower secondary top over the next 5 years. During that 5 year rally, the producers were massive sellers even as everybody else thought oil was a sure thing. Cocoa peaked in 2011 and crashed that year as well. It has now rallied to a lower secondary top over the last 4 years. During that 4 years producers are selling at record levels. Of course oil continued its massive distribution top for another year. So further rallies in cocoa are certainly posible even probable, but a peak cocoa blowoff, not so much IMHO. I would be looking to short rallies. In the early 70’s, the first book I ever read about commodities had some special words for cocoa. The users are very powerful, Hersheys, Nestles, Ghiardelli, Godiva, etc. It said, so if you ever think about trading cocoa, roll over and go back to sleep. Natgas has been under heavy buying by commercials, which is bullish once they stop.
Peak Cocoa production is real and El Nino’s produce Drought in Ivory Coast (#1 producer) along with significant decline in production of Cocoa:
Click to access WOS2-Coulibaly.pdf
I will miss my weekend updates with your Great analysis John.
Stay healthy and strong. I will keep you and family in my prayers
Always your friend
Thanks for everything, John, and all the best. Instead of showering you with praises which you already have plenty, I’m going to put out my well-intended challenge for you to rework the fundamentals in your analytic framework during your break. I’ve already given my view on August 23. I admire your passion and dedication, and I have no doubt you will eventually nail the big hit. But there are many things missing in your analysis, so naturally when you look at all the things that you agree with you will arrive at your conclusion. My views are posted on twitter. All the best.
PALS and SPX this week:
Phase: bullish all week
Distance: neutral
Declination: bearish until Friday
Seasonals: bearish Monday, bullish Tues to Fri
Planets: Saturn conjunction Monday (volatile price move possible next few days)
Summary:
Mostly bullish factors this week
Excellent. Bulls in control. Dax already up close to 1% 1 hour into trading! Got to admit I’m a little surprised at how resilient this rally is. Probably the ideal moment for a drop to catch out the unwary.
What is 1% amongst friends??:)
Thanks for the update, although I can see what the DAX is doing…;)
J
sight = site whether one has a “college degree” or not?
Har, har, har, that is funny. I was 32 years old before I found out that I could not curl my tongue up into a tube. When I was a boy I was sent to an American public school and they had just dropped Phonics for the Look/See method. Don’t worry, though I still have problems with spelling I can speak just fine as I took four years of professional Voice Mechanics from a student of the late Dr. Douglas Stanley.
Douglas Stanley was an English Engineer who immigrated to the US in order to work at the Bell Labs which he did and perfected the rational method of developing the human voice box:
For three generations the Bell Family sought to improve the human voice and the invention of the telephone was meant for exactly that purpose. My private voice instructor had been a student of Douglas Stanley while he was still employed at the Bell Labs in the early 1900s. Hitler could have learned something from him….har, har, har.
Just when I think you can’t be a more interesting person…you always manage to surprise me further.
Right?
Thanks John for your kindness and generosity in putting out this work. Simply the best read of the week. Bang on. Have a thoroughly recuperative rest – and all the very best to you and your family!
The strong USD is going to destroy US companiy profits and in turn the US economy and thus markets.
I had a discussion today with the sales manager of a New Zealand company that just hiked the cost of ALL their products by 20%. They recently moved their HQ to the US, however all their products are still manufactured in NZ.
When I asked why they had increased their prices it was admitted to me that they had decided to link all international trade to the USD and as a result that it was unfortunate that some international customers prices had increased due to their country currency declining.
I laughed out aloud and said… “That means every single major developed nation on the planet besides the US has had a price increase due to currency declines”
He repeated…..”Yes it is unfortunate”
Do you think I could get him to understand the folly of what they were doing and how much it was going to destroy their sales and thus bottom line?
I promptly cancelled a 3 month order and have no intention of re-ordering because in one fell swoop they just priced themselves way out of the market to protect their USD profits. How stupid can a company be??!
This company may not be a US based manufacturer they are however an example and a very clear warning of the issue now facing US based manufacturers and ALL US companies thanks to a strong USD.
The US profit rout is just beginning!
Chicago PMI just confirmed what I state above. Annihilation coming to the US economy brought to you courtesy of CB intervention which has created massive mal investment and the greatest distortions between currencies and interest markets I have ever seen and likely the greatest in all of history.
Why in hell would you NOT want to own physical Au/Ag?
Good luck to all. All the best for Xmas and the NY.
Because it won’t bottom until Delta’s Long Term 3 point as a low.
I haven’t changed the fact that I am expecting Gold and Silver to keep falling to their Delta low L-3s. However, what I have changed is the expectation of two Long Term Inbetween Points. With two Inbetween Points I wasn’t expected a radical decline in prices. But without those two Inbetween Points the decline is going to be great as L-1 was a low and L-2 was an early high which is giving no interruption to low L-3 which I now expect to be late; and, the decline in price will be great.
Note that since I have been posting on this site, for over a year, I have consistently been against going long the PMs (and I still am).
Johnâ¦.
You are to be complimented on the work you have done; lots here to learn
Larry williams
Are you the “Larry Williams” of “Oops” fame?
LW is a trading legend backed up by books of methods that actually work.
If he is Larry R. William who twice ran for the Senate seat of Montana, went the distance and lost, (was self financed?), then I was wondering what he thought about Trump running for the Presidency (who is self financed).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_R._Williams
I think you need gazillions nowadays to run for any type of office especially in the USA.
I don’t know, all I know is that I use some of his stuff in my work and it’s proved useful (made money).
Decennial years, 4 year cycle, DJIA @ 6% yld, Nov-Apr seasonal, sentiment readings etc – I’ve found his work useful in working out the bigger picture going on.
I’m not political but it’ll be interesting to see ho far Trump manages to get.
This is my first comment.
First, thank you John for giving us insight what you think and your interpretation to thousands of charts.
Second, thanks for showing us, that it didn´t make any difference when being wrong, if you argue with one, two or hundreds of charts and reasons.
For me, it was an eye-opener.
I am sure, at the end you´ll be right and we will see a big fall of the western economic model and stock markets.
But the question is when?
You John, do not have any credit. I only say this while looking through your comments the last couple of quarters. I´m sure your are a great guy and very familiar with a lot of economic stuff. Personally I wish you all the best and that your trades will make millions for you in the future.
All the best.
volkerarndt, one of the easiest things in the world to do is criticize….particularly after the fact. It’s sad that your ‘first’ comment was such a FAILURE. I’m saying this NOT AFTER THE FACT.
You have not bothered to participate in any of the many debates that happen around here and yet you feel you have some ‘right’ to arrive and make pronouncements like ‘You John, do not have any credit’.
Please may I request that you crawl back to whatever vile infested stone you came out from under. Many thanks for your singularly DISTASTEFUL contribution. I do hope you won’t subject us to any more.
On the other hand if you feel brave enough to make some sensible comment about the future direction of the Stock Market that we can all consider then please do stick around. Just be prepared to accept whatever ‘questions’ are thrown at you about your ‘pronouncements’. Hope you can take the ‘heat’ just as well as you can dish out unwarranted criticisms.
GM,
I have noticed that you have become civil in conversation. That was an incredible exchange with Jeger and you did not berate as you would have in the past. I am completely with you on your Natural Selection processes of Human behavior and I will add that any time the human race has tried to change this aspect, it ended in disaster. Karl Marx communism comes to mind as the best example failure. In fact the Utopian view ended just as we have in the past, with a ruling class and an under class. The USA is working to that direction as well. So in fact, it is very difficult to to break the inate Human Drivers of ambition and survival. So In Jeger’s mind, I have given up as not being possible to change this aspect of our species. For the most part, I do not think it is possible because of one other inate Human Driver, which is laziness. When people are handed everything they contribute very little to society. So Jeger’s advanced consciousness fails here as well and leads to eugenics. People deciding who should and should not live because they fail to meet the requirements set by those who know better, ie the ruling class.
I am not making this up, this is human history that has repeated. Jeger is not proposing anything new, his suggestions are nothing more than recycled ideas from the past. Our incredibly short memory as a society whole will make people believe they have come up with some new great idea and it always ends up being a recycled idea.
Competition equals advancement and not everyone will succeed, but equalizing the opportunity for success is the best plan in my view. The belief that all should succeed is not realistic due to pure genetic statistics. The fastest way to progress is remove the idea that one person is better than another due to some birth status in life. It is hard to achieve and goes against natural Human Forces.
JaFree, I don’t know whether you’ve ever read this little ‘fairy tale’ but I would urge you to read it and then I would very much like to hear your views / critique of it.
http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm
For the record I am with the ‘ambition and survival’ crowd, but this one piece, more than anything else I’ve read in a loooong time had me stop and think.
Hope you read it.
purvez, I will check it out.
Hope you enjoy it.
Hi Jafree
Thanks for responding. There is a fundamental misunderstanding in terms of past systems that have been tried, as well as many around the subject of “human nature”.
What I mean by this is that what I am proposing for debate has *never* been tried before in any form. Communism, socialism, marxism, capitalism, free market, fascism and so on have a “leader”, money and have not eliminated scarcity. It doesn’t matter therefore if the “idea” or “ethos” of the label used is “one for all” or “every man for himself” when the tools are there to corrupt the process. Of course, in addition to really understanding what a resource-based economy could be, it is not just being able to imagine how this would impact an individual from the current systems at an age of 20,30,40,50,60 years of age, you also have to be able to imagine how new education and formation of new additions (babies) will change and impact those formative years. It has taken me years to get where my view is now, this is not something that can be digested in an hour or a day or month. But, in rebuttal to your claim that this has been tried before – I can assure you that it hasn’t – in ANY form – there is no “recycling” here. I just want to be very clear on that so you do not carry this misinformation with you into the future.
In terms of laziness, in most human beings this is because they do not have an interest or motivation to do something. Most people will have a hobby or hobbies that they enjoy – whether it is hiking, trading, gaming, sport, flying, racing, gardening, writing, painting and a myriad of others. So, people may be display lazness in terms of school, work and so on but still expend quite an effort or time into something that interests them. Some people do not display any passion for anything. That may be because they have tried stuff they didn’t enjoy and have been discouraged, may have tried something they didn’t enjoy because of negative behaviour by others, or they didn’t have opportunities to find something that *did* motivate them. Also, in the current paradigm where most people are zombies waiting fro the weekend, it is very hard to see how different things could be. The most common argument against a society where 80%-90% of menial jobs are automated is that everyone would just do nothing so it would never work. This is a fallacy, because we judge this by our own experiences and environment within the current systems. Bear in mind, the current system based on competition also exacerbates the problem, because a lot of people believe they are not capable of doing many things due to scarcity of those types of jobs or roles.
Also to be clear, I am not saying that a resource-based society will make everyone equal, and it will not be perfect. It will seek to offer all an equal opportunity to live without the burden of scarcity and competition and doing meaningless jobs to survive. As importantly, it will monitor and take care of the resources we do have that are not renewable so that we do not cause harm to humans by using whatever energy source is “cheapest”
To be fair, I was also dismissive in the beginning but over time I have revisited this regularly over a longer period. If I had to make a snap judgement in those first hours, week or months I would probably have also found it quite a struggle to bother to consider. A lot goes into it as we have all been formed by the current systems and it is extremely difficult to consider anything else. As human beings, we do tend to take shortcuts when making decisions – so it is quite understandable that shortcuts like “human nature”, “history”, “natural selection”, “communism” and all those other regurgitated arguments are much easier to base a decision on, because it takes a lot less effort. Remember though, the effort needed is driven by motivation – not an incurable state called “laziness”. You just don’t have the level of motivation yet because the current systems control your thinking (and mine to an agree ofc), treats you pretty well and of course change can be scary – until it becomes necessary.
When you talk about short memories, there are pretty good cases of evidence of ancient settlements where men and women didn’t have assigned roles or role types, people worked together to create as much abundance as they could with limited technology and so on. These days and in the future it will be far easier without the constraints of “money”.
If there are any other aspects you or anyone else misunderstands in terms of what I am saying please reach out – I will do my best to clarify. I don’t have all the answers, never will have – but am happy to to spend time as best as I can. Remember, the reason why I kept revisiting NEW ideas is really as a result of looking at the current insanity that I see more clearly every year I spend in financial and commodities markets and navigating life in general. That is why I asked “GM” the questions that he wouldn’t answer, because they are important to my motivation at least to consider other systems. You may have some ideas yourself, above and beyond banning inheritance (as I understand it). If not, how does this point change things?
Cheers
J
Jeger,
That is a lot to digest, but I will give you an off the cuff response. The very one based on my life’s intuition as you describe, and we can agree that it is a shortcut and grand ideas can take time to digest. The problem in my view does in fact have to do with genetic probability. Morons can birth genious and genious can birth moron. So goes this problem for many other traits in human behavior like laziness. The problem with most Utopian ideas is you have to have a particular mindset to make it work. Genetic Biology destroys that opportunity. This is somewhat disturbing to those thinkers that generally think everybody wants the same thing as them. So in a Utopian Ideal, we have the (wo)man vs. nature problem. A battle royal to say the least. In my study of history, I have found that people that fall into the trap of Utopian thought, eventually fall into solving the problem of genetics and that is a very slippery slope. In fact, who has the right to say why or why not somebody exists and for what is their purpose? Now we get very dangerous indeed. For the purposes of history, genetics by our terms is blood line for historical terms. Not a complete match up, but certianly transferable. For instance, in history we say eliminate your enemy born by [xyz] culture. In recent past, it was not necessarily born by anyone, but a trait to destroy. Eliminate all who are inferior because they are not smart enough, have disabilites, pick your trait. In historical terms humans did this with war, genocide. In modern times efforts to prevent reproduction were/are used. Not to say genocide does not occur, we all know it still does and would be worse if external forces did not curb it.
I know it may seem that I have gotten a little off course, but I am pointing out the GRAND problem that to me seems nearly impossible to solve. Which is what we would call today as Genetic Probability. All Utopian paths hit a brick wall when faced with this issue. The tried solutions generally do not fit with our compassionate minds.
Having said that, you have peaked my interest, so please provide the links. I would like to see this plan. I mean it is not every day somebody offers a plan that has not been tried before and I am compelled to compare that with my history. I promise to give it as much open thought as I can, but there is the problem of old dogs and new tricks =).
Hey,
I’ve been trying to make sense of the waves since the 20th Nov high. Here’s my count for the DJIA.
http://postimg.org/image/nn87ngj4n/
I grant you that the over throw on the leading diagonal down is ‘somewhat’ excessive….but so is the retracement on the diagonal which is nearly 90+ percent. (We EWers expect a DEEP retracement after a diagonal)
So the ‘point of failure of this forecast’ is the c=2 high which is deep and I hope ‘insurmountable’ for the current wave count.
Hey there are some ‘factual’ errors in my notation of the chart. For a start the ‘c=2’ should read ‘c=ii’. Equally ‘3 in progress’ should read ‘iii of 3 in progress’.
Apologies for the sub-standard posting, but the latter IF true is going to be ‘interesting’ (BIG CAPS required here)!!
‘DEEP’ sounds nice to an underwater (3%) bear like me purvez. In hindsight, I should have grabbed an 11% gain a couple of weeks ago, but there we go, I always say I am a crap trader.
But I still think the market has been biding its time, lulling bulls and bears into a false sense of Christmas security, and will surprise everyone when it gives up the current fading rally. So, I’ll hold on.
Any downside targets to help me get out at the right spot should we go down hard?
I’m still looking for August lows to be taken out, and the appearance and comment by volkerarndt above only warms my heart, a person ignorant of the sense in JH’s thesis this past year, and therefore ignorant of the inevitability of certain indicators producing a bear market. A typical bull in fact, playing in the bursting bubble.
GM: ‘Any downside targets to help me get out at the right spot should we go down hard?’
The HUGE problem with EW has always been it’s fluidity. Whilst one can take an informed ‘stab’ at the bigger picture…. ‘when’ to actually pull the trigger comes down to (at least in my case) the 5 minute charts. Now, I’m happy to post when I believe the turn has ‘just occurred’ but I’m as blind as a bat in terms of predicting when it ‘WILL’ occur.
Having said that I’m going to break a rule (which I’ll regret in short order, no doubt).
Given the way it has behaved since the 20th Nov top I have to say that I believe that the wave-2 high is in and we’ll see a rush down which won’t stop at the
‘Huh’? Don’t know what happened there but I can’t rule out ‘fidgety fingers’ either.
Meant to say…
‘which won’t stop at the mind-nov lows.’
Sorry about that.
Purvez – Out of longs and back short now.
Will stay short for two weeks or so. Back in long December 14th for the Santa Rally.
Yes geno, would agree with that stance. Let’s see how far down it can be pushed before any new ‘proclamations’ can be made.
You continue to have some amazing trades. Wishing you MORE OF THE SAME for the remainder of the year and the NEW YEAR.
JH – Have a happy holiday season! Maybe you’ll feel rejuvenated after this break.
Jafree, in truth, when I read snide little comments (like above) from jeger to Richard and krish, I have no desire to engage with him at all, plus, he’s barking up the wrong tree entirely on this issue. Human nature, not money, is what needs to change, but never will, we’re just animals fighting each other to survive. I scrolled past his latest long comment.
I will always endeavour to be be polite, but sometimes my direct comments might rub some up the wrong way. Sometimes my humour is a tad sharp too. I’m imperfect.
We got off to a bad start over your homeland and its policies, although I believe I was civil even then, but your input to the blog has been considerable and of use to us all.
Back at you GM. I have always said that you and I beleive much the same on many issues and we are all passionate at times. No harm no foul. I also greatly appreciate your ideas. We can chalk up another common thought here.
Genetic Probability = Human Nature = Living Nature
All Living Nature on this earth is fighting to move forward. I find it near impossible for this to change. Humans could be wiped off the earth and this rule would still apply.
GM, these were not meant as snide remarks per se. If RI is going to lecture at length in terms of his deep understanding of new things he has learnt then I merely choose to break up the long paragraphs with an ironic amusebouche…..I still read his posts and do not want to invite further venom from you. Also, there are others here who have commented on Phil White making idle comments about what price is doing in straight reporting with no opinion, and as Nicolas has done with his “everything is going well” contributions my comment to Krish was in reference to that – nothing more nothing less, and certainly no different to comments made towards others who have done the same – but without the vitriol from you. In that sense, I would just be honest as to why we have seemingly had a falling out and has led to your anger. Let’s not pretend it was because of some special attribute contained in *my* comments, when these have been made by me and many others in similar situations for along time:)
Whilst you do have the habit of throwing your weight around in a non-constructive way, this seems to be a little more personal. I will ask “why”, in the hope that there are some questions you may be able or motivated to answer…:0
In terms of “human nature”. Well, there is a very simple way of changing what you call human nature, which others call “behaviour”. Change the environment in which an infant is born into, and that infant will take on the new values of his or her education and culture. So whether you look at a baby born into a tribe of headhunters and leave it in that environment or whether you take a new-born baby from a developed country into that environment, both infants will grow up to be headhunters. Likewise with a norwegian infant born in Norway and you take it to live with Chinese parents in China with an infant the same age, the non-chinese genetic baby will have the same vocabulary and values as the Chinese born baby. Of course, there are differences between human beings in terms of intelligence, strength, looks and so on, but there is no gene that turns a baby without outside stimulus into a capitalist, muslim-hating bigot (for example). So how this relates to a resource-based system I don’t know. Such a system would have to be entered into on a voluntary basis. Basic concepts such as declaring the earth’s resources as common heritage and the fact that there would be no such thing as property anymore and so on would have to be agreed by persons joining such a society. In my view, it would also be insufficient for only a part of the world’s population to agree to join, it would have to be an all or nothing deal – but thats just my opinion at the moment.
As I said, it is a shame that you are so angry with me – the ideas that I am putting forward are very long term possibilities and should not be “discarded” willynilly. Getting from the current systems to another is something that is not clear to me. My feeling is that it will take an awful lot of pain to get there, mainly because most people will only really look at something when the ground is burning underneath them and of course those of us who have an awful lot more than others will fight it as well. It would take several generations I am sure, but it will get easier because the education that would be available will change dramatically, and so young people would gain a totally different perspective from those of us who have to fight our very selves in order to even try to understand. No longer we would be taught in institutions that teach us mainly to obey, pledge allegiance to “flags” and other meaningless knowledge or behaviour in preparation really for sitting in an office, being used to do what teacher says, and pledge allegiance to a logo……there is so much to think about in this stuff that all I ask is that anyone reading this should at least come back and forth to think about other systems that may be viable. All I am saying is that I don’t think we can do it with “money”. At least that has been proved by all the other systems that have been tried, which are all basically a monetary system with a different ethos attached.
Just because we are all imperfect, doesn’t mean that we need to perpetuate that mediocrity. We can all be better than we are, but we need to want to. Do YOU? If so, start by being honest…imho…..
J
Jeger, I am open minded enough to see what you have. I may turn out like GM where I read it and disgard it. Just keep in mind, we are the older folks, we tend to be wiser, but less open to new ideas. There are reasons that people become more cynical as they become older. In any case trying to convince people that will not be around more than a few more decades may not help your cause. At some point we will have to pass the torch on to the next Generation. I feel pretty confortable saying that it will be up to them to mange the Human Race. After all, I’ll be dead! =).
You got any links?
You’re a hypocite jeger, you don’t like being called out on it though do you? The inclusion of little smiles 🙂 doesn’t hide the fact that you frequently make snide little sarcastic put-downs. (Passive-aggressive was the phrase I recall). You probably don’t even realise that when you describe Richard’s thoughts as a ‘lecture’ you are doing the same, so rude. (Ironically, in your comment mocking Richard, you didn’t even start your sentence with a capital letter, clever chap that you think you are, yet).
Read this paragraph you wrote again tomorrow, it is dripping with sarcasm and condescension:
‘these were not meant as snide remarks per se. If RI is going to lecture at length in terms of his deep understanding of new things he has learnt then I merely choose to break up the long paragraphs with an ironic amusebouche….’
You had a big dramatic meltdown a while ago when challenged by someone, and left the blog (for all of 2 weeks) like a drama queen. I suspect we all realise you have a large ego, and are unaccustomed to being challenged. Perhaps just learn to live with it here. I really don’t care though, I tend to just call a spade a spade. I tend not to walk past BS, although I exercise more self-control these days in the spirit of blog harmony. I have no *weight* to throw around, I am a visitor here, free to comment, free to be criticised, free to be ignored or to ignore. Only JH has weight, as it’s his blog.
Please don’t take it personally however, many here write things that I have and will continue to challenge, and feel free to defend it all you like, others will decide on your behaviour and mine too, and please don’t waste your time with attempts at engagement on the other issues, I literally scroll past them for reasons already explained (I believe it’s nonsense).
Fair enough GM, although the reason I left the blog for a few weeks was not because I was challenged, but rather there were many who were shouting others down which I find non-constructive and frustrating. I choose to be here as we all do, I guess the point I was trying to make above was that I do feel you are particularly vitriolic towards me, and that it is not because I am more “snidey” as you describe it than anyone else. In other words, I was trying to see whether there was something that we could do to straighten it out? Bearing a grudge on a blog is probably going to prove to be destructive, so let me know whether we can do something about it.
J
Look in the mirror, think before you type, that should work.
purvez, Big props on the mashall brain site, cannot read it all now, but scanning the first page right off the bat gives you a big thank you. Cary, NC. I ocasionally frequent this locale AND I am a huge computing and robotics nut. My early career was factory automation. Many call it robotics, but I am holding on to that term for a CP3O or more classically Robie the Robot type device. I am looking forward to read more from this site. I will warn you, I generally am a skeptic of many futurists thoughts out there, but that is because I merge Technology with History and try to make comparisons to today. Not to say I do not beleive in technology moving forward, but to not ignore the Human Nature surrounding it and apply realistic challenges.
JaFree, I was a scientist at school and wanted to do aeronautics. Sadly my home currency devalued by 150% about 3 weeks before I was heading to Northrop Institute of Tech, which meant that my projected costs went through the roof.
Wanted to still ‘see the world’ and found that I could ‘earn and learn’ as an accountant in the UK. So that’s what I did for the best part of my 20s – early 40s career before moving into IT. So…why the autobiography lesson? Just to say that I now am grateful for both the scientific and financial sides of knowledge. Neither have ALL the answers but it’s nice to be able to have both perspectives.
Just keeping an ‘open mind’ is all I do these days (other than about the CBs!! LOL…a bloke’s got to have some ‘convictions’).
I have no answers to the worlds ills but I believe there are people out there far more capable than me who provide some interesting options. I read them all and get ‘interested’ in some of those ideas.
Much as we disagree with Jeger’s views evolution suggests that if we ALL want to SURVIVE then perhaps there is a way by sharing resources.
Jafree:
“All Living Nature on this earth is fighting to move forward. I find it near impossible for this to change. Humans could be wiped off the earth and this rule would still apply.”
Sure, but who says that in order to move forward we have to do it through biting each other’s faces off and stepping on others? Who said a resource-based system is not seeking to move forward? Where does this come from?I say it is “money”, you say it is human nature? As I said, if you put an infant into a very different environment, the infant will develop very differently according to what it experiences in that environment. Do we agree on that? A baby born in England that is adopted within a few weeks by a Brazilian-speaking family will grow up speaking Brazilian…yes?
J
Jeger, you are going down the path of genetics over learned behavior. This is a VERY long and detailed discussion that the best minds in science argue about. My belief is that we have genetic pre-disposition. Meaning you are born with geneitcs that you have to fight to change no matter the leanring environment. Laziness being a good example. A certian percentage of people will be pre-disposed to laziness and no matter how the learning environment is they may find it VERY difficult to eliminate that from their habit. Not to say it cannot be changed, but VERY difficult. I base my belief on what we know about from current science. For instance, we know that people exhibit fearlessness due to a certian set of genes. If I remember correctly, this gene set was spread out among cultures. In any case, they are pre-disposed to exciting action. Many extreme athletes have this set of genes. So how are you going to fight these pre-dispositions? wo(man) vs nature problem.
Hi Jafree
I totally agree that we are genetically pre-disposed to physical attributes and things linked to those. Some are fat, bald, strong, weak, feel the cold, have different colour skin and so on. But what you are saying is that we have genes that affect the *ideas* that we will have and what we will be interested in?
J
” For instance, we know that people exhibit fearlessness due to a certian set of genes.”
Hi Jafree, I almost forgot to return the courtesy of asking for a link to this study. Thanks
J
Jafree:
“My early career was factory automation.”
Actually, this is very interesting and ties into a question that I have. Do robots that perform labour pay tax? How is this managed when jobs are automated? Less tax receipts, or does the company who produce more “profits” pay more tax unless the monetary system in place allows them the loophole of avoiding such taxes? In which case some of the surplus profit produced is shared with a minority of people called “shareholders” – and of course with other organisations commonly referred to as banks, in order to pay off “interest” on “money” that only these organisations can create out of thin air…….
Apologies, the original question was genuine, the rest was to see whether you thought the rest of the paragraph was the best system for human care and advancement that we can possibly come up with…..:)
J
Product is taxed, workers that maintain the equipment are taxed, workers that build the equipment are taxed. Power that drives the equipment is taxed. The productivity that is derived from a product generates economic activity out of thin air and this is the true creation of money. Apple Computers being a great example. You really are going down a path of near endless discussion.
Apologies, not my intention to create an endless discussion although I don’t expect any answer back from you on a new social system much before 2020! 🙂 (non-snidey smiley there)
My only intention is to try to encourage a new way of thinking, whether the resource-based system that interests me now can be bettered or alternatives proposed that are totally different. I believe that if one can truly assess a totally new way, this paves the way for an open mind and future development. As I said, if I had one hour to consider the implications of such a system I almost certainly would have discarded. it. To be clear, it is not my wish to impose my thinking or a system that I think could be viable on anyone else, I also wouldn’t want to force debate on anyone. This is purely optional, I don’t have any economic interest tied into this or a need to be right in any way. This is driven by my perception that the current systems do not work well for most people, that we are slowly destroying the planet, and that shortage of even basic needs are out of reach for a considerable part of the planet’s population.
In terms of links to what I am looking at it, there are many so I will distill it down to one initially. You mentioned age earlier (I am mid forties by the way, so not so young), the person behind this proposal is Jacues Fresco who will be 100 years old next March. The link below is to a Youtube video of his visit and interactive session at City of London University in late 2009. In the description below is the link to the Venus Project website which describes some of the fundamental theoretical concepts. I do feel however it is very useful to hear him at the University because you get a feel for the person and some of the very basic concept examples he uses to see if one can open the mind….and agree or disagree of course…..
The session is about 1.5 hours or so, so I will check back in here next week some time. And, of course if others do not want to see all this stuff am happy to take it offline.
J
jegersmart, I watched both episodes with interest. Jacques opinion that ‘greed’ is also bourne out of ‘environment’ took a while to sink it. Not completely convinced about that but am willing to go along with it.
However the one question that I believe he didn’t answer (and unfortunately the lady didn’t call him out on it) was whether he felt that individual ‘personality traits’ would become suppressed within his ‘world’.
Do you have an understanding of his stance on that or even a personal opinion?
I’d be less inclined to subscribe to a ‘society’ where the ‘norm’ was the ONLY acceptable criteria and individualism didn’t survive.
Thanks Purvez, best to you as well. I’d like to see 1962-1925 on the pullback.
And I’ve been adding to my HL position.
geno, you’ve lost me on your targets. Do they represent some fibo retracements? And if so of what wave? Do you have chart to look at please?
Yup, Fibo’s. Bullish EW counts: c of E of a large triangle that started last October. c of 2 before wave 3 up.
Aaah OK different perspectives. I’m not expecting another high, but I forgot that you were. On that basis your counts make sense.
Take it easy, John and enjoy as far as you can with your family.
Best Regards.
@apanalis
GM:
“Look in the mirror, think before you type, that should work.”
Well, I guess no one can say I didn’t at least try……
J
Guess again.
It’s occurred to me that we need more women contributes on this site. How can you get women interested in solar cycles?
Lace them with diamonds.
geno….your post is very timely. I just read earlier today (don’t ask me where) that there is a ‘glut of diamonds’.
Please, please don’t let my better half know that. Thx.
Can we set up a separate room for the two of you so you can continue the brilliant repartee?
It’s all rather unpleasant and certainly now in the spirit of John Hampson. Do leave it be.
Assume you mean ‘not’!
I’ll say no more on the subject (unless he persists with snide shots), apologies to the board.
Are we going to get the 1st of the month upwards movement tomorrow?
looks good so far
http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-demographics-rule-the-global-economy-1448203724
Excellent link HVA. Thanks for sharing.
Allan, others interested in gold, Comex is a sideshow, LBMA (XAU) is where it is at. That too will bust one day, like it did back in 98 (Brown’s bottom):
The flip side of El Nino is La Nina. Powerful El Nino’s are almost always followed by equally powerful La Ninas. Ok, fine, but what is the push/pull of El Nino? El Ninos push weather events all over Earth. So what is the “pull”?
There happens to be a time of the year when planetary weather is most influenced by El Ninos. That time is the “pull”: January thru March. It is because of the “pull” that the strength and the timing of an El Nino is so important. The current El Nino may become the strongest of recorded history. And most importantly, it might not reach its full strength until this coming January thru March. THAT is powerful trading knowledge provided you know how to use it.
This morning’s action has me changing my mind about the chart I had posted yesterday. (The market dictates and all I can do is analyse).
This is what I had posted yesterday (to save you looking up the link):
http://postimg.org/image/nn87ngj4n/
And this is what I believe is transpiring now:
http://postimg.org/image/4vajenqyz/
i.e. it’s a small triangle from the 20th Nov high and when it finishes it will make a brief but sharp stab above the 20th Nov high, AND if the bigger count is right then it will still stay below the early Nov high. The other thing to note is that being a trangle the up wave above the 20th Nov high is the FINAL sub-wave and at a minimum the whole of the triangle will be retraced although I believe it will retrace at least back to the mid Nov low.
The ONLY OTHER thing to consider is my completely ridiculously poor track record with triangles.
GL all.
Ha, ignore the immediately following post as the above post with 2 links was cleared!!
OOh Kaaay!! Tonight’s closing ramp took the wave above the ‘d’ wave that I had posted earlier today.
Annoying as that is, grrrr, it does not invalidate the triangle count….YET. It just means that my ‘d’ has to move a bit to the right (to the closing ramp high).
As long as it doesn’t violate the wave ‘b’ high then we are still ‘hunky dory’…just.
Just as much as I love it when a plan comes together….I also HATE it when it doesn’t.
Of course it may just be that the market is trying to assist by keeping my triangle count success rate intact.
Thx market!!
Should have said ‘success rate intact AT ZERO!!’. LOL.
Please can someone remind me why I do this stuff for a living?
This morning’s action has me changing my mind about the chart I had posted yesterday. (The market dictates and all I can do is analyse).
I tried to put yesterday’s link here but you’ll need to look up the link yourselves, sorry, as 2 links puts the post into ‘awaiting moderation’ mode.
This is what I believe is transpiring now:
http://postimg.org/image/4vajenqyz/
i.e. it’s a small triangle from the 20th Nov high and when it finishes it will make a brief but sharp stab above the 20th Nov high, AND if the bigger count is right then it will still stay below the early Nov high. The other thing to note is that being a trangle the up wave above the 20th Nov high is the FINAL sub-wave and at a minimum the whole of the triangle will be retraced although I believe it will retrace at least back to the mid Nov low.
The ONLY OTHER thing to consider is my completely ridiculously poor track record with triangles.
GL all.
Hi Purvez,
I posted this yesterday – https://thehovistrader.wordpress.com/2015/11/30/market-higher-for-december-2015/
I don’t think I can recall a 5th year of the decade that failed – they “usually” produce some pretty decent returns but this ones been a bad affair
I notice you use RSI @ 14 – I used to use a 3 Period moving average of a 3 period RSI which was fairly accurate, then I moved onto a Stochastic RSI Indicator – Setting 8 period Stoch RSI with a 5 period SMA running through it – as you can see the turns are much more defined – still its an indicator and has the errors that all indicators have (in lagging the market action) but it’s fairly good when using with EW as you can often refer to the Indicator to confirm the wave count/position.
I use neither now as I just use the Indicator as confirmation in my trading – it doesn’t rule my taking of positions as I’ll trade them if the indicator agrees or not.
Apologies if I’m highlighting something you’re already aware of.
Hovis, that’s a really good post. You do have some strong arguments in your favour.
Regarding the ‘5th year’ syndrome. Does it HAVE to be a new ATH or if not then what else? A new high for the year? Also does it have to be at or near the end of the year?
The reason I ask is that I’m expecting (as my post suggests) another high above the 20th Nov high and it may well take a few more days to get there. So I’m wondering whether what I’m suggesting falls in line with what you are expecting?
Regarding RSI etc. It’s something that appears automatically on the chart and I’m sure there is a way of turning it off but for my purposes (i.e. EW counts) I tend to only look at price. I do occasionally glance at the RSI if I remember but it only muddles my thought process. (It’s probably something to do with my 2 brain cells limitation).
The 5th year is “Typically/Traditionally” a VERY strong year – this years is going to be lacklustre – W.D. Gann identified the typical market action by year in the early 1900’s all he did was look back over decades at what the market did – i.e. the years 02 and 03 of a decade typically are low points with the market rallying up into the 7th year when there’s a pause.
Not a new ATH – in 2005 it worked but didn’t produce a ATH – the 5th year just has to end up from 1st Jan to 31st Dec for it to work or not.
I’d need to consult my records to see how often its worked, from memory it’s 90%+ accurate.
At present The action on the S&P500 qualifies the 5th year as being up
On my post it shows CBOE option data for the other day – the EQUITY Put/Call ratio exceeded 0.75 – in the past when this level is breached the market has been UP 10-20%+ in the following 12 months or so – obviously this could be the time it fails but its something to be aware of.
I’m more swayed by the market rising rather than it going down, even though I’m bearish overall.
Good call there p, spot on so far.
purvez, you’ll remember this triangle, seems the market does too:
http://screencast.com/t/gu45mQoj8x
GM, certainly the market is ‘aware’ of the top trend line. Until there is a 3rd touch (at a minimum) of the bottom trend line we can’t say that the market recognises that trend line too.
Also if you are a bear then the triangle you have drawn would be very unwelcome because after a triangle completes it’s 5 waves it’s going to have one last upward thrust….above the ATH.
Now, for me at least, that is not a count I can agree with…..but the market gives 2 hoots about what I agree with!!
Purvez, I belive market will break that line and continue to SPX 2170-2200 area. Major top in January should keep with good old tradition of January tops.
January 1973 comes into my mind with the following 1973-1974 C-wave bear shaving 45% off the DJIA.
The only difference I see is that now it should be 70-80% and possibly even faster…like 12 months or so. This C-wave will be devastating.
Brunell, I don’t discount what you are saying. However until the early Nov highs are taken out I’m sticking with my call of a re-visit to the Aug lows.
Of course there is enough time for ‘both’ our scenarios to take place.
I’ve learnt to change my opinion on a dime and to only look at what the ‘price’ action is telling me.
One of the reasons I’m reluctant to post my market ‘projections’ here is because of my need to change my mind so often. Hence, I’m only trying to post the larger trends….although I can’t say that I’m succeeding there very well either.
I wonder how many are still short and how many have given up given ECB/FOMC/XMAS/NEW YEAR bullish combo.
John, I’m still short.
I wonder how many bulls spotted the big move in govt bond yields today? Smart money has sold today and dived into USTs and gilts etc. Also, USD has reversed sharply, EUR up, JPY up, carry currencies being crushed. Not pretty.
What is about to happen (a plunge) will catch most completely unawares. If it happens.
Well, I am still ~very~ short, as well….
Nothing really new to comment, but certainly the market is demanding patience…
Thanks — I am flat now, but looking at ECB or FOMC meetings as a good shorting point.
1987 Dow crash trendlines:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/dY84lw9q/
Hard to believe:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/hlVQFHfe/
Wow, what a chart….
I know some predict that we’re about to have a “melt-up”, or at least the SM bubble is in front of us…
But you can’t really look at that chart, and not at least entertain the ~thought~ that we’ve already been living IN the bubble….
As in, right now….
Not saying it has to end today, but still…..
The third greed “bubble” is not bursting due to the ongoing availability of low risk rewards via crowbar levering of jeopardised indices. A comparison of indices through the 3 peak period highlights which and by how much they are so far influenced to be overpriced. By no change to the basic new order engagement tools and a small increase in the number of future generations to bring into the borrow-pit this 7 year old party can continue ad-infinitum, and most probably will do just that. Just add more digits to the debt indicator.
Ad-infinitum eh?
Time will prove that the laws of maths, demographics and the influence of solar cycles have already started to burst this latest iteration of the bubble.
Will it be the final bursting? Possibly, maybe it staggers on for another cycle or two, ever weaker.
This one is dead already though.
Great quote I read recently: ‘Life is a bear market, with progressively weaker rallies’. 😉 A sobering thought.
Well….that was another good triangle in the making shot to pieces!!
I’ve come to an alternative conclusion. It’s not me who is bad about calling triangles, its the stupid market that doesn’t understand them and mucks them up.
I’m just going to have to keep showing the market potential triangles until it ‘gets it’.
I just remembered today, the 25 trading day cycle reaches day 25 at the end of this week. The latest started on November 3rd. I’d assumed (hoped) the cycle would finish with a low, which now seems unlikely.
But the peak is likely to be in this week based on this cycle indicator, which has been pretty reliable during 2015.
I will add more to my shorts tomorrow or Friday, depending on prices.
Gold appears to have turned up for a quick run to c. $1200.
The S+P 500/DOW have turned up to new ATHs.
Will you be shorting shortly?
The risk of course is that this is 1998 and we rally till 2017. I am talking to myself again…
Are you listening though? 😉
Purvez:
I can’t seem to reply to your post above in that place, and as I think the board has some fatigue on this subject – I will keep it short.
Every society will imprint certain common traits in people which you could describe as “norms”. In our current system that is the pursuit of money by surrendering to labour that most people don’t like or would probably choose not to do if they had a choice. Money of also imprints distrust, competition and artificial scarcity – and ultimately wars. There are of course positive norms that are imprinted as well, but I suspect you are referring to negatives so I will do my best.
In the system that Fresco is proposing, there would definitely be norms in my opinion that would be imprinted as well – and these are only my own opinions. With a scentific and technological approach there would be less room for concepts like religion I suspect, at least until a few generations down the line where belief systems can be followed *without* needing to kill others, or impose those beliefs on others. In terms of “individuality”, the definition can be quite subjective. Personal opinions at least in terms of resources management would perhaps also be limited – as Fresco says “If you don’t know, just say so.” In our world having an opinion based on non-factual data has increased over the past many decades, or at least voicing them – which I guess is “freedom”……but the fact we remains that we cannot agree as a species even whether something like “God” exists or whether our activity is affecting the planet’s climate or not….. I am not sure that as a product of a monetary system that I am qualified to answer. In our current system some of us drive Lamborghinis instead of Nissan Micra’s, some live in big houses and others in studio flats, some of us go to Harvard and some leave school when they are 16. Some of us are doctors, some lawyers, some pilots – and so on. I guess you could call this individuality. I however, would argue that individuality comes from our experiences which drives knowledge, empathy and aspirations. In the type of society he proposes I suspect we will see a lot more individuality in many different ways, but I also suspect Ferraris would be a thing of the past:)
I sincerely thank you for looking at this. I don’t think there will ever be a perfect system – but in my mind that is no excuse for not looking at new ideas. The natural reaction to anything new, whether it is introduced by an a$$hole like me or someone else is usually to find fault with it. The logic seems to be that if you can find 1 fault or maybe 2 then it can be discarded instead of acknowledging current insanity. What you see very rarely though is anyone coming up with any other ideas. I am not saying the Venus Project is the answer in every way, it may be but I don’t know. I keep coming back to trying to think differently though, because the UK government has £40billion to spend on keeping a submarine they have never used when they don’t have money to look after disabled people with no family. The US government has spent $1+ trillion on Afghan and Iraq wars, but 50 million Americans need food stamps. Of course I have got used to it over the years, I don’t sit here crying about it. But as GM says, do we walk past “BS” or do we tackle it? Does anyone here agree with the 2 examples given, in that this makes sense for human beings in general? These are only 2 of a billion examples where using money to control and distribute resources these days does not make sense and is inherently corrupt. How many UK voters would vote to spend £40billion over the next several years on Trident instead of spending it on education, healthcare, housing or whatever else (if we HAVE to use money)?
That is why democracy doesn’t exist, that is why I suggest we look at new ideas before we are driven to it when the ground is burning beneath our feet. For some, it already is….
J
I thought we just had an election in the UK, and Trident won!
But seriously, here are my views on the subject of the human animal, for anyone that may be interested. My conclusions are that we’re merely animals, with an in-built survival instinct which leads to the strong prospering at the expense of the weak (although the weak are having a good run these past 70 years):
http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/its-not-easy-being-animal.html
Hi GM
This article raises some interesting points, and I certainly don’t disagree with a lot of the musings of the person in question – in fact I totally agree that we need to become “one tribe” in order to prosper in the long term. My issue is that I cannot see that we will achieve this within a monetary system, the reasons to go to war or cause harm are driven by a different motivation when the aim is corrupted. In the future, say in a resource-based society (just purely for the purposes of an example) it maybe the case that “population control” would be necessary – but not based on the motivation that a particular group would get more than others. I mean hypothetically that if the earth’s resources at that time showed that the planet could support 8 billion people and there were 8.5 billion in existence, then it may be necessary to limit all people to having 2 children instead of 3 for a limited period of time in order to met needs for all. This will sound draconian to some, some feel the need to have 10 children for whatever reasons they have. My own experience is that those who have many children are generally living in societies that do not have ready access to resources (i.e. what we would call “poor” – and need their children to care for them when they get old)) and/or even have some religious beliefs that have somehow worked their way into society that forbids the use of contraception, or encourages very strongly a prolific mating behaviour. If one takes the example of muslims that move to Europe for example (I only use Muslims, because we somehow classify people that way currently so there are some statistics available) trends tend to suggest that birth rates start to drop once they have moved, at least over time. Is this societal influence in general (as “developed” countries tend to have less children) or is it easier access to resources with a societal safety net in place, or is that it is just too expensive to have 8 children in Europe?:) I haven’t looked enough at it to make an educated guess.
I digress, but I believe that from what I have seen during my 45 years on this planet, and in the 79 countries I have spent over a week in – that the “motivation” for doing something is corrupted in the majority of those places by money, because the decisions taken or “motivations” are seldom “honest”. I can have someone killed for £20000 (apparently), in the chimp world I would have to do it myself and driven by instincts in an extremely crude and basic “society”. Could I say that I paid the £20k to have it done because I am an animal, and money made me fitter than the other person? OK, it is a bit tongue-in-cheek, no offence meant – it is just to make a point.
On the subject of Trident, I really don’t know whether all 65 million people were asked and voted on this particular issue? Not as far as I know. We had an election where a “tribe” called UKIP won 13% of the vote, but gained 0.x% of the seats in government…..not that I agree or support them but this highlights some problems in this outdated model that we cling to. If politicians want to start a war, they should go and fight it, because there are no consequences for them. Of course there are people in this world that volunteer to learn how to kill other people and make a profession out of it. They join a totalitarian tribe where questions are not asked, but I have spoken to quite a few who have operated in other parts of the world and once they retired where pretty unanimous in their summary “i just don’t know what we were doing there in the first place”. Interestingly, whilst they were still active, they were not so forthcoming because they needed to receive income. I think we have all seen that money creates dishonesty of the highest order?
What I do particularly like though about this article and that you posted it is that it shows people are thinking and considering how we live and sharing those thoughts and ideas. Realistically, that is all I would hope for – whether it is me talking about certain initiatives or someone else considering other ideas.
thanks
J
I haven’t followed the details of this discussion, but here’s what I’m seeing from a macro view: You say money is the problem. GM and others say, no, human nature is the problem. I tend to agree with the latter. If you remove money and human nature doesn’t change (and that’s a whole ‘nother discussion whether it’s even possible to change human nature and if so, how), then something else will take the place of money in the new system. There are serious problems with our economic system, with money, with debt, etc. But I wonder whether getting rid of the current system would fix any of those problems long term. Maybe short term we’d see some positive changes. But eventually the hoarders, the power hungry, the sociopaths, the entitled, would figure out a way to game the new system.
pimac,
‘But eventually the hoarders, the power hungry, the sociopaths, the entitled’
The groups you describe above are simply the most advanced of our species, for whatever reason. I hoard gold because I have surplus, some seek power to advance their family/tribe’s interests. The weak are subjugated, starve, or are killed. No point worrying about it, just try to survive it all and have some fun along the way. Money is not the problem, it’s just a tool we use, like guns, nuclear weapons, pesticides, napalm, agent orange. The common denominator is always man. I know the current monetary system is a pile of crap, but we will move to a better one shortly when the dollar dies.
PS I saw a documentary on some lovely bears in Canada. Horrible watching a baby bear drown whilst its mother looked on unable to help. Also horrible to see the same mother and her mate kill another adult female (a threat to their progeny and bloodline). Evil bears? Don’t think so, just bear nature.
GM, you and I have a difference of opinion regarding the definition of “advanced” with respect to human beings. That’s a whole ‘nother discussion, probably one that needs to be held in person or with skype, because there’s so much ground to cover and it would turn this comment sections into pages and pages and pages. So rather than wade into it here, I’ll just say I disagree and leave it at that.
Good day to you.
Is BP correcting its Impulse decline from July, 2014, to April, 2015, that its upward “A of 2” reach the 50% Fibo and is now completing its lower “B of 2” and, soon, will start up in its “C of 2”???
Might its impulse rally in a “C of 2” imply higher UK and USA stocks –and– lower Gold?
From the 2007 heights to the 2009 lows and until now what is BP/USD’s Elliot wave count. I suggest taking a look at Fibos too.
Should the USD continue rallying against the Euro might the British Pound reverse and rally against the Euro even faster/stronger than the USD does? Could this result in a collapse of Gold/USD and Crude/USD but a continued rally in UK and USA stocks?
Many tech analysis folk I read reckon the EUR and gold are about to start a swift run up. I’m not sure the chart attached shows any real dollar strength against the euro in 2015 (RSI diverging), although the past few weeks have seen a strong dollar run.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/QAGbAVCS/
Richard I, please may I ask what you mean by BP. Is it the Petroleum company that you are referring to or the British Pound. If the latter then for clarity may I suggest GBP. Thx
Yes, I went long EUR/USD this morning – seems to have broken out (early stages)….imho…
J
Should EUR/USD rally then BP might rally more. I just took a minor profit in Cocoa as it now looks like a stop running raid is setting up. I have put buy orders in beneath this recent correction’s lows in order to get long at lower prices. It should be noted that Cocoa also trades on UK exchanges priced in BP and, today, BP fell hard when it broke thru 1500 and that could help the stop runners to gun for the stops in American Cocoa futures.
New Narrative for S+P 500/DOW: “The Top” will come in early January, 2016, as 2016 will be a “key outside reversal” of 2015 on yearly bar charts.
The first half of December in North America is expected to be much warmer than normal which will continue the crash in energies and put more money into consumer’s pockets. The lastest Star Wars saga will be released on Dec 18 and will be a high seller that gooses up the “animal spirits” of consumers to spend heavily from the 18th to the 25. The second half of December is expected to be colder which reverses the energies back up and assists the major stock averages to new ATHs as the energies are a large sector. The first half of December being very warm followed by a cold to very cold second half sets up the consumers to go on a wild buying spree to the end of December which also helps the S+P500/DOW rally to new ATHs and top out in early January, 2016.
Not sure about Star wars about Yellen said today at noon that delaying a rate hike might risk financial stability. Therefore, finally hawkish after 7 years of zero rates.
Hi Richard
Are you saying that stock markets react to consumer spending in realtime? That is a new one…..(to me) How does this work?
J
How about this: As the Energies sell off for the next two weeks so does the EUR/USD and the S+P500/DOW go higher to new ATHs.
As the Energies “crash” in the first half of Dec the EUR/USD may go along for the ride and “wash out” in a “deep spike low” that also helps to crash the PMs even more.
Certainly possible.
Hopeful it is the rediculous sideways markets, or time with your family to give pause, and not your health.
Gonna take a big big fear to shake this rampant steroid machine. Think why NATO exists and why it pursues relentlessly that original purpose. See how mindless the existing and wannabe members are. A fear that grows with no nutrient other than the western propaganda machine. NATO will neuter Russia at all and any cost. The cost will be civilization. ..
I wonder what you read to keep up to date with geo-political news?
I already see NATO crumbling, irrelevant and outsmarted by the Russkies and the Chinese (along with Iraq, Iran, Brazil etc).
The world has already walked away from the US, we will see the result of that in the next few years and onward. The US are likely to be broke before they can start WW3, so keep smiling.
Re oil, the glut will grow, full production is now everyone’s policy, as the petro-dollar has been ditched already:
http://iranfrontpage.com/news/business/energies/2015/11/international-firms-ready-to-accept-iran-petroleum-contract/
‘Companies will be allowed a share of the oil they produce, enabling them to sell it abroad. They will share the rise or fall in recovery; hence, the more they produce, the more they will earn.’
It’s fascinating to watch these developments play out in real time. No longer can the US destabilise the oil world in the Middle East. Low oil prices for decades to come.
Nice to see markets down, what happened while I was away?
Life is cruel….then you die!! On a BIG outside down reversal day that engulfed the previous 6 I had to be AWAY from my desk. Major BUMMER!!
Despite the market not understanding my triangle call it pretty much did what I was expecting. A pop at / above the Nov 20th high before reversing.
The size of the reversal and that it looks impulsive, followed by the overnight action which looks very much like a bear flag makes me believe that we have at least one more down wave to go.
IF that happens (major reason for doubting is the wild man…oops ‘card’ is Mr Draghi and his big mouth later today) then we’ll have a small sized 5 down which would be the first time since the early Nov highs. That would then signal a change in trend back to down.
Regarding the ‘alternative’ society paradigm discussion, I am very fascinated by the depth and quality of comments by all participants. I would certainly like to have the discussion continue, although I do recognise that this is not the forum for that discussion.
Perhaps, GM’s offer to use the ‘screwtape’ blog, could be taken up for this discussion? Alternately start a separate blog. On that front, despite my IT background I am hopeless with blog technology so perhaps someone else with more experience would volunteer? I would be happy to contribute towards costs.
Any way whilst I’m on the subject I’d like to acknowledge jeger’s response back to me and that I generally agree with your comments. However there are more questions and comments that I would like to make on the subject if we find an alternative home.
I found this whilst trying to discover whether greed was a human trait (i.e. built in) or a consequence of the environment that we are brought up in. Worth a read.
http://public.wsu.edu/~taflinge/socgreed.html
Bang bang…Santa is coming to town. Yesterday = bear trap.
Sure looks like it Krish. Everything since the 20th Nov is in 3 waves on the DJIA as far as I can tell. That many 3 wavers sequentially are the signature of a (dare I say it?) TRIANGLE!!! Market are you listening? I hope not this time because the ‘up’ wave following this large a triangle would be quite big and could well take us above the early Nov high.
Not very welcome for my wave count!! Still at least I’m forewarned.
I have just counted 25 trading days from 3rd November, and it takes us to Wednesday/Thursday of next week (depending on whether you count from 3rd or 4th). I took out one day for Thanksgiving.
So, will we stay up until then, or will there be downward move to that date?
I think I will wait to add new shorts til next week.
GM, please would you elaborate on the 25 day trading cycle. Does it go high to low or vice versa or a cycle back towards the originating point? Thx
It doesn’t just go high to low.
But apparently it has been good for turning points since February 2015.
I checked the past few turns and they were spot on to the day, although one was high to high.
I can’t provide the link to the source here, but check your inbox…… go back a few weeks. 🙂
Thx GM, I’m currently working from someone else’s computer so will look at it this evening.
Just a quick link to an article about Syria with a different view on why this conflict is ongoing. This view does clash with the reasons given that the US/UN are active in Syria because Assad is such a “bad man” and needs to be disposed of for humanitarian reasons. I haven’t seen this angle in mainstream media, although if correct this is no surprise to me as it is resource-motivated in common with almost every war.
http://www.news.com.au/world/middle-east/is-the-fight-over-a-gas-pipeline-fuelling-the-worlds-bloodiest-conflict/news-story/74efcba9554c10bd35e280b63a9afb74
J
This post is going to be in 2 parts, simply because if I try to include 2 links in the same post then the system puts it into ‘awaiting moderation’.
——————————-
A few days back I had suggested a possible triangle forming which was then blown off when day before yesterday’s overnight action took the DJIA above 17900 before coming down yesterday. Here’s the link to that chart :
http://postimg.org/image/4vajenqyz/
The next post shows why I should have just been a bit more patient.
This is part 2 of the 2 part post:
Here is an updated chart showing the action up until around 12:35 BST on 3rd Dec ’15. As you can see wave B actually took longer to complete than I had originally given it time for.
Given the 3 wavers proliferation I can’t come up with anything other than a triangle configuration.
http://postimg.org/image/tld3xlwft/
Now let’s see how well the market behaves this time.
Hmmm it didn’t take long for Mr Draghi to ‘tear up’ my nice triangle!!….or did he?
If you move my A-C line to where the new ‘c’ ended (at the moment) around 17667 then we have a ‘parallel bounded triangle’ i.e. the triangle is of equal height throughout.
So at the moment I’m expecting the DJIA to get back up towards 17900 for ‘D’ although with a violent dip somewhere in the middle before a final ‘E’ down back to the late 17600s…..and then another ‘THRUST’ up. Since the thrust from a triangle is supposed to about the same height as it’s widest part I’m not expecting the thrust to go much higher than the current ‘B’ wave and will almost certainly stay under the early Nov high…keeping my bigger count ‘safe’. (Fingers Xed)
What I’ve described above is ’eminently’ tradeable with stops in the requisite boundaries.
GL to all.
The law of ever diminishing returns at play. The ECB despite unleashing further QE and the markets not satisfied.
The DAX crashing out of the wedge pattern that has been forming for over a month.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DAX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p81978196782
The magic is gone.
LOL!
I thought he was Mario that ate green mushrooms and stars
Stopped on Dax longs. Euro rally target is 1.10 at which point I will start rebuilding longs for the final euro crash to below parity. Dow longs still intact and aiming to short US markets in January hopefully at higher levels.
Closed eur/usd long fwiw.
J
I would imagine it was worth a nice bit of coin today, nice trade!
For some real fun and giggles I just went long Feb Live Cattle futures. I think that today’s stumble lower with the USD has brought in the seasonal lows.
“Buy when there is blood in the streets”:
http://www.agcenter.com/newcattlereport.aspx
I was waiting for a day like today in Live Cattle futures:
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/rabo-bullish-on-cattle-hog-prices–9058.html
Hey all been too busy to stay involved on this site lately, but just letting everyone know that I jumped into more longs for KMI, which has gotten pummled over the past 3 days and down for 5-6 sessions. I wouldn’t blame anyone for being frightened of this stock, but I think they are easily worth a share price of 30 and now a 10% Dividend which I think is safe. Time will tell. KMI is one of the biggest pipline operators in the world and I like this best in breed stock.
JaFree, appreciate the comments on stocks you find worth buying…
I’ve added it to my list of “potentials”….
I think now is premature for any longs, but again, at some point, it’ll be time to strike… 🙂
Certainly, energy stocks (as a group) are getting a bit too extended at this point though…. (Famous last words…) hahaha
But gotta be closer to a bottom than many others, that’s for sure….
Thanks again…
NO BLOOD IN THE STREETS YET (mkt anyway) same turning points as last December, yet many chased longs just to get walloped again. DAX really? down 4+%. posted here recently and on my twitter feed. spiral inverse 6 month expansion low 12.20.15 1972 spx. then there will be blood. fing chasers and esf spoofs to create false spikes so they can sell during cash market to suckers on 1% spikes. btfd til they die. go read all the bullish posts from 12/4/14 and 8/17/2015.
DON’T FIGHT THE FED that is why bears got fried for the lat 6+ years. now the FED has been screaming since September they are raising rates. they started at a whisper, turned it into a roar. still the bulls want the btfd. just like an earning play. they risk to the earning announcement for 10% or 10% down. the next MAJOR move won’t happen until 12/16/2015 when the FED raises rates for the FIRST time in 10 years. DON’T FIGHT THE FED.
unlike 9 out of the last 10 months, i wouldn’t be surprised to see the melt DOWN to 1972 during monthly expiration on the 20th and hit 1972.
DRAGHI gave the bulls exactly what the market wanted and priced in. like an addicted junkie, it wasn’t enough and they wanted MOARR. hence down 4% and last minute shoppers got smoked. there is a change in the wind.
nice day today +(127.28%) taking 75% off the table here. for a bounce off 2040
100% cash using trailing stops. sold all position at 205.15 spy
Purvez – Shorts from Monday starting to work well.
Well done, Geno…
There are times I’ve been on the opposite side of you – usually to my regret – but it always feels better when we are on the same side…
Thanks for sharing your views, and keeping up the great work…
Barry
geno, congrats on your trade. Are you planning to take profits?
The Internals of this ‘inverse rally’ are still very much 3 waves and the down on the DJIA looks very much like an Ending Diagonal from this mornings high around 17860.
Tread carefully here.
GL with everyone’s trades.
December 14th Purvez! I did buy some SPY (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 206 Call At 2.00 today for a hedge of my shorts, we should get at least 20 pt bounce today and tomorrow. Next week should still be bearish.
Yes geno I do remember you quoting that date before!!. The really annoying thing is I’m travelling on the 13th (late evening UK time) and only arriving ‘dead beat’ next morning Pakistan time. Almost certainly won’t be in any position to take advantage of anything on the day.
I’m always out working when the fun moves happen!!
Maybe the 25 trading days cycle date next week WILL be a bottom, maybe the bulls will rescue today’s plunge.
Crazy day, look at Eur/Usd, 3% in a day (and after more easing by the ECB).
Craziness, love it, and this is just the very beginning of a few years of it.
Good luck everyone.
PS Gold/HUI…up, yay.
From the August lows is the S+P500/DOW channel trading higher to new ATHs? If so, then today’s sell off is a buying opportunity (buy the dips).
Yes buy the dip! But the dip isn’t quite over I think. More to fall then V recovery into year end.
Do you still think this is a bear trap, or a bull trap?
Both is an option too I suppose.
anyone following the options cycle could have seen this setup happening with a 75% win rate for the last 10 months. i still don’t understand chasers of DAX and SPY but i’ve been wrong plenty of times as well
Come back John, your vindication begins…
http://barestbodkins.blogspot.co.za/
Here’s a chart of yesterday’s and today’s action. Much as I like the ‘drop’ it appears to be a false one. Today’s action clearly looks like an Ending Diagonal which means that when it reverses it will recover ALL of today’s action….and then some.
I know it’s hard to believe and with my track record on calling anything on the markets it should be taken with a POUND of salt.
http://postimg.org/image/l9k2h0qgf/
Look to the stars and locate the Big Dipper.
Then stand on your head and repeat after me…
A retrace of the day means approximately zilch.
Peter_ not sure why you would say that. A retrace of the day is approximately 400 points on the DJIA. Hardly zilch, in my opinion.
Day trading causes myopia. Now you not even seeing that John is looking for the big picture. Do you see the Primary 5th? Do you see the diagonal triangle? Do you see the confirming histogram? Do you know the degree of certainty for this chart behaviour in the 5th being the end of the road?
Peter_ day trading does not preclude me from having a vision of the big picture. In fact one of the reasons I have been harping on about a revisit to the August lows is because I believe that this 4th hasn’t ended yet. The Aug drop was A the current ramp is B and then we get a C down back to the Aug low to complete a flat.
Most of what you mention I’m seeing other than the diagonal triangle, largely because I’m not sure what the pattern is. I’ve seen Ending or Leading Diagonals and I’ve seen Triangles of various sorts but I would welcome being educated on a diagonal triangle, please. Thx.
Yes in SPX this seems to be C-wave of the triangle that started to form in early Nov.
After this consolidation market should burst higher to SPX 2170-2200. This may happen after Fed announcement.
USD is key, it might have already topped. But for SPX I still see new ATH in January
You want sharp downside now to justify further bull action. Sideways favors the bear. The ending diagonal shows slight downside coming, hence the end of the bull is given more weight in the chart. Correlation is present. You have been advised with great care. Consider to tread accordingly.
Bunell, please may I ask how you arrived at the early Nov correction being a triangle? Thx.
Oops, probably an even more important question is WHEN did you come to that conclusion? Thx
Purvez – If you’re still short Friday the 11th, I’d close the shorts.
geno, I’ve only been ‘day trading’ (in the strictest sense of the words) for a long time. I’m out of the markets by the end of the day.
I have VERY occasionally been tempted to stay in overnight and usually regretted it the following morning.
Besides it helps me sleep ‘like a baby’.
Never Drink and Trade
Hmmm pulp, you are right of course, but can’t say it hasn’t happened.
Purvez – 9:50 EST sold my 206 calls (the hedge) for 35% gain
geno, you seem to have an inordinately good sense of timing. Is there anything ‘particular’ that you are looking at/tracking to help you with that? It would certainly help me and I hope the board in general.
Thx in advance.
For my swing trades I use daily charts and indicators. These are the longer term trades. Within those trades, I use the 10m charts and indicators to trade around those longer swing positions. I’ll put together a post on the indicators and everything I use. I thought the low would come in at 2:30 EST yesterday, it ended up coming in at 2:50. Close enough for government work.
This might be a wave 4 triangle off the the 1867 low. Something to watch. Would produce the weakness into next week by trading sideways then the Santa Rally would follow.
Thanks geno. Will look forward to your post. Much appreciated.
Either the Solar Cycle’s influence on the Energy markets is nearing its end and/or its influence on Stocks was limited to this past August but, either, way it’s BTFD for US stocks as they Channel Trade to new ATHs.
Look at the slow stochastic since late July on the weekly SPX. I can’t ever remember a slow stochastic behaving like this has in the last 4 months.
It began behaving like a fast stoch initially flatlined in Sept when the markets were in danger of collapsing under the August lows amid the Glencore fallout and the then huge rise in Fed repo and then flatlined again in November when once again it was turning down.
I don’t know exactly what it indicates but it is totally bizarre and IMO may indicate a massive effort to artificially support an index that wanted to turn lower.
I will have to spend some time studying and thinking about it????
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p91429032877
back in puts after the 20 pt + pop retracement I was looking for. GLTA. don’t fight the fed
spiral update 7:15 CST 12.4.2015
First price target reached yesterday. Next target 2016. Longer term targets 1877 and 1824.
LOL.. draghi comments yesterday, market sells off. so he comes out today and says they will do whatever it takes and increase asset purchases through 2019! today’s action has little to do with jobs report. how draghi has any credibility is beyond me. the algos, dark pools and as nicolaus likes to point out central banks are running the show. we have had 4 reversals in a row….hang on to your tinfoils hats. now that farook has been confirmed to be a radacalized homegrown terrorist, markets are up 3% to celebrate, just like they celebrated 11/14/2015. i think soros must be running the algos. he loves death, mahem, black lives matter, and terrorism
scott, completely and utterly the only intention of CBer’s is to support markets because it’s all they got to try keep things going.
They know if markets enter a prolonged bear then the jig is up. They got nothing else. The global economy is stuffed including the US.
The BS in the MSM today over the jobs numbers is a whitewash. How about they focus on where the jobs really are and what the participation rate is in the US instead? Real unemployment in the US is well into double figures.
They won’t tell the real story because they’ve been told to tow the line and keep the illusion going because confidence and direct CB buying of stocks is the only thing that is keeping us from total collapse.
Draghi has yet again shown himself as a slave to the stock market. He wil never ever make the decisions that need to be made and guarantees that Europe and the global economy will suffer the greatest collapse in history, because the longer they prolong it the worse it will be.
The US Fed are no better. They had the opportunity to begin raising rates in 2013 and choked because they too were scared stiff of stock market weakness.
This is what happens when you base monetary policy that bails out the weak and rewards incompetence and all but erases risk.
I don’t know anyone under the age of 40 now that has the remotest understanding or idea how to quantify risk.
Here’s some musings about how emotions are such a STRONG force on our (at least my) trading.
Yesterday due to various ‘idiotic’ reasons I got lumbered with a very small ‘long’ trade. Although my profits from my short side MORE than covered this insipid amount I kept feeling irked by it. I kept the long side open overnight hoping to ‘recover’ some of it on the bounce today.
Now I find myself ‘egging’ on the ‘long side’ (which is not my usual stance). Finally it’s reached the 61.8% retracement I’m just going to take my small (very ‘lucky’ loss) and get out of the way.
Funnily once I’ve done that it won’t irk me if the market strides on higher!!
Am I mad or just a human? No need for answers here please.
You are mad! Here’s my daily EW chart:
If you’re not short yet (I am), 2090 would be the optimal short level for wave e down or wave (iii) down.
My daily swing indicators are all on sell, which means sell rallies.
geno, you are USELESS at following instructions!! LOL.
I DO HEAR YOU. I’m currently ‘out’ but it won’t take me long to jump in again. once I’m sure this ‘ramp’ is over. (Time stamp : 16:16 BST)
Picking up next weeks 208.50 puts around 1.70. Time Stamp 10:20-23 CST
First target hit in NZD/USD, staying long though
Updated
Hey people, I do hope you find this funny. This is a paranoiac saying:
(…But, just because you think people are out to get you doesn’t mean they’re not).
I get ‘THAT’ feeling too every so often. LOL.
Who’s out to get you? GS?
‘THEM’ you know!! SHHHH! THEY are listening!! LOL.
Put your tinfoil hat back on and pull out all of your teeth!
I know about the tin foil hat. I’ve got an endless supply delivered daily because I heard it needs to be renewed regularly….BUT what’s this about teeth. No one told me anything about teeth.
They don’t tell everything at GCHQ I’m beginning to realise the B@&^%$£s!!
The thing is, Nicolas has not posted. What does this really mean? That markets will keep going up?
There is something fishy about the rally if he is not posting. Bathtub rally: http://c7.alamy.com/zooms/16cdfb124708440c9b6ef4ff42ecb58a/plau-am-see-germany-20th-july-2013-the-bathtub-rally-is-underway-in-day35n.jpg
PALS was mixed this week, but earlier I posted that I was taking a bullish bias due only to seasonality. It worked ok, not great as market was only slightly higher. Next week:
Phase: very bullish
Distance: bearish Monday and Tuesday, bullish balance of week
Declination: bullish Monday, bearish balance of week
Seasonals: bullish Monday at open, bearish balance of week
Planets: neutral, slightly bearish due to Jup square on 12/15.
Summary: small long position into Monday open. Next week is too mixed to be able to use PALS with any predictive effect. Will day trade selling highs and buying lows, if possible.
Aaah good to have the GOOD OL TIMES back again where we could have 200+ point drops and then 300+ point rallies (or was it vice versa?) on the DJIA like back in 2008-9.
HAPPY DAYS!!
It used to be said you only get 300+ up moves in DJIA in a bear market NOT a bull market.
In this century that is no longer true but since market numbers are bigger perhaps using a percentage might be better.
I’ll go see when the first 300+ was in a bull and work out a %.
Just a note to say thanks for all yoru posts, appreciated, read with interest. have a good break.
The spx MUST finish higher than last year.. It has to.. everything will be done to make sure
.. lets power up the spx higher so even if there is a rate rise .. it will still finish higher than last year.. even if its only through powering up facebook amazon netflix and google.
Lol pulp. You are beginning to sound as paranoich as me.
Do you know anything about teeth in that respect? geno seems to know more than us.
Other people know more about these things than me. Ha!!! And they say I shouldn’t be paranoich!!
Here we go folks, everyone expecting the Santa rally to continue it seems.
A few traders/technical analysts expecting some minor downside in the next week, before the Santa rally.
Is anyone left that expects the lows of August to be tested?
Does anyone even entertain the possibility that we go a fair bit lower than in August?
Too many over on one side of the boat in my opinion, I have a gut feeling (plus a load of divergences) that some major downside happens before the end of the year and intend staying short, even through the Fed meeting.
Good luck, don’t end up feeling paranoich !?!?
The last two winters were cold and pessimistic. This winter will be warm and optimistic. This winter will be a “party winter”. The energy savings to consumers will accelerate as much lower heating cost adds to ever lower transportation costs. Let the good times roll and party on….(rally Santa rally).
It needs to be recognized that the Sun crashed the Energies but that the Moon is rallying US stock indexes. Too bad this wasn’t foreseen ahead of time.
The Moon may also crash US stocks as the Moon’s Lunar Declination Cycle eventually transitions the El Nino to La Nina.
To answer GM’s question above about whether anyone still believes we get to August lows, the short answer is I do. Here is a possible route that it could take:
http://postimg.org/image/tv04vbntn/
Now some explanations of this chart:
It’s for the DJIA from the May’15 highs. Up until last week I thought the upward correction (where it shows c = W) was as high as it should go. However Thursday’s drop followed by Friday’s rebound have me believing that we have a more ‘complex’ upward correction. Effectively a ‘double 3’ or WXY.
My ideal stopping point for c=Y=B is just above 18200 as that’s where wave ‘c’ would equal wave ‘a’ of that correction. HOWEVER given the positive seasonal factor it is possible that wave ‘c’ is 1.618 x ‘a’ in which case it will just pop above the May’15 high.
The 18200 point would provide for a much better looking ‘flat’ correction where the definition of a flat requires wave ‘b’ to end very near the start of wave ‘a’. In that respect a ‘double 3’ complex correction helps.
The higher stopping point would effectively make this an ‘expanded flat’ where wave ‘b’ ends beyond the start of wave ‘a’.
Much as I hate the upward grind I reluctantly would prefer the ‘expanded flat’ scenario because under that scenario wave ‘c’ can travel much further than the bottom of wave ‘a’. In our case the bottom of the August lows.
It is quite common in expanded flats for the ‘b’ wave to only marginally pop above the start of wave ‘a’ but for wave ‘c’ to materially AND I MEAN MATERIALLY go beyond the end of wave ‘a’.
So if we want the market to fall ‘MATERIALLY’ below the August lows then we should all be wishing for a slightly higher ‘ATH’.
Hope all this makes sense. However all questions welcomed and I’ll try and provide answers to the best of my abilities.
Hi GM
I am short generally speaking apart from GDX, will reassess this week depending on developments. I am down on average about 1.5% on short positions, GDX up almost 9%. I don’t have an opinion as to whether we will retest or break lows, but if 1960 or so is seen on SPX and a similar drop on the Q’s I would probably take some or all profit.
GLA
J
Good to hear that purvez and jeger are on the same page as me. I know Barry is short too.
I’m lucky that (for some reason) the Ftse has not regained much of its plunge from last week, and so my positions are marginally in profit. Sterling has been weak, so perhaps it’s the exposure to miners that is dragging the Ftse down?
I posted a few charts here last night:
http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.co.uk/2015/12/nearly-there.html
The 25 trading day cycle ends on Wednesday, looks like it will be a ‘peak to peak’ cycle this time.
I note that Armstrong is selling gold reports at the moment, and is talking about the bottom and targets for the next bull market in gold. He’s funny, as only recently he was saying one can only target ‘time’ not price. But he’s running a business, and it seems he has plenty of buyers for his reports, so good luck to him.
GM you said on ‘screwtape’ that you’d found a new free graphing site but then didn’t mention the name or URL. Looking at the first chart would that be TradingView, please?
Yeah, I like to ensure readers over there have to do a bit of thinking.
I did share the link here a while back, it is whizzo.
BTW p, paraoich….were you drinking? LOL.
And then there were 4…(purvez, GM, jeger, Richard)
Disappointed that you don’t count yourself amongst us John Li.
LOL. I forgot about myself. I am not counting bears, since Richard I is a bull.
And then there were five…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/And_Then_There_Were_None
He’s taking a well-earned rest, but I’m sure we can still include JH in amongst the bear brigade. Hope you’re well out there John.
another elliot chartist . https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/O9lT0OEd-S-P-500-me-lowering-degrees/
Crude puking as expected…..:) NICE
spiral targets 2033, 2017, 2011 inversion low 12/20
Those targets are far too high scott, please amend lower. Thanks.
If oil does not hold this Aug. low, look out below. Next 6 weeks should be interesting one way or another. If we get this final push down in the coming weeks, it should nail the coffin shut to the US Frackers. They are getting buried even at current levels. It should prompt rapid rig shutdowns. I didn’t understand the Rally of oil on the OPEC meeting. They paid lip service that they would drop produciton if Russia dropped production, knowing full well that would never happen. None the less, same strategy for OPEC. Saudi can weather the finances better than media reporting IMHO.
Are you still short Jeger?
I closed most of those positions Thursday, at this rate the last 25% may be almost worth as much as the 75% I did close lol.
The way I read the OPEC is really that they just got rid of quotas. Potentially a few million barrels bpd may just be added over the 6 months, more than enough to allow for frackers actually stopping. – however it depends on what the market is pricing in – is it ppl realising how bearish it has looked for a few months or is the market looking forward.
I might stay out of oil for the rest of the year once I am out of this one.
J
Headline – Record-setting year for M&A activity
They are talking about 2015 in this article. If the Bulls find this ok for a bullish stance, more power to them. I say it bodes well for the bear. Early 2016 looks like a good sell off time to me.
GM, I am in the camp that we can drop at any time. the divergences have not changed and we are in a period of high risk to me, meaning people are trading the rally, but are very skitish. Any sign of a serious sell off and look out below. If pressed to make a call, The Money Managers prevent the Sell off at this point until the year is over. January rebalance of stocks by Money Managers could be a violent one. Time will tell.
I hear you Jafree, and will take profits this time down, as I should have done a few weeks ago. If it then plunges without me, so be it.
For anyone interested I have taken profits on my Sugar longs and have reversed to short World Sugar futures (Sugar #11). From now until and “if” the coming La Nina produces severe drought in Brazil I will only look to sell Sugar on “rips” (sell on Rips and buy on Dips).
Most on this “site” us Elliot which is just fine by me because I also use it. March, 2016, World Sugar futures have made a beautiful Elliot rally with a near picture perfect ending upward Diagonal Triangle (rising Wedge). When such Diagonal Triangles are ending patterns they tend to reverse and retrace the Triangle and very fast. Given that the Large Specs are at all time record longs increases the odds that a very rapid retracement will happen (fast $s).
I am also changing my opinion of the Grains/Ags in general in that I am expecting them to trade sideways to lower until the middle of 2016.
Picking up these FB Calls: FB Dec 18 2015 107 Call11 Days to Expiration
Setup Chart:
Looks like it’s a wave 4 triangle in SP-500 to me Purvez.
Sure looks like it to me too geno. Although I don’t participate in anything other than the DJIA I’m always looking for alternative EW patterns to look at. They generally provide some ‘support’ to my ‘mad cap theories’…..or not’
Jaws of Death pattern only a few weeks away points towards Crash in stocks. I am still looking for the ATH in early January which fits with this pattern:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/13387842/1/why-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-could-begin-a-70-decline-in-the-next-few-weeks.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
Richard,
By coincidence or not, two Delta points fall on 12/30/15. Does the rotation show these to be tops?
I am calling for I-3 to be a high that brought in L-6. The real issue is the fundamentals. There is no shortage of Sugar worldwide. In Brazil, this year, the issue isn’t land or yield. The issue is whether or not the Mills can crush all the sugarcane that will be harvested. The Large Specs are relying on the Mills shutting down at their usual time of mid November. Last year by mid November over 70 mills had shut down but this year only 25 had shut down. The Large Specs are also relying on lower sugar output due to more ethanol and less sugar and so much rain that the sugarcane plants have made less sugar.
Most traders don’t realize that the issue this year isn’t drought and low sugarcane yield but whether or not the mills can crush all the sugarcane. That is because 10 mills went out of business since last year. “If” the mills ceased crushing sugarcane when they historically would then there would be a severe shortage. Problem is that those mills make more then ethanol and sugar. They make electricity that is feed on to the power grid too. With the overhang of a drought hydroelectric production is low and prices are high. For this reason the mills will continue crushing much longer than usual and crush all the sugarcane even if they keep crushing until January. This means the Large Specs have underestimated Sugar production this year.
I am of the opinion that Sugar will fall below this year’s lows sometime next year. Note that Brazilian exports of Ethanol are expected to fall due to no demand against low energy prices.
UNICA:
http://www.unica.com.br/unica/?idioma=2
Earlier today I had said that we’d probably go above the early Nov high. Whilst that is still on the table here’s a chart that I’ve used ‘occasionally’ to gauge the market direction. As Peter_ would warn you it is NOT a chart you should consider for EW purposes….BUT it does have an uncanny ability to show quite clear EW waves.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$NYAD
Just look at the extreme right hand side. The down wave from around 92000 to around 88500 represented the Thursday ‘down’ day. The ‘up’ from there represented the Friday ‘bounce’….and the down since then represents today’s (Mon 7 Dec’15).
This chart is telling us (me at least) that my call for new highs may be ‘pies in the sky’. So I’d like to add this to the mix when one considers what to ‘expect’ of the market.
I know, I know ….. it looks like I’m trying to hedge my bets but I’d rather be ‘hedging’ than ‘PLAIN WRONG’.
GLTA.
purvez, here is goldman sachs wave count through friday 12.4.15 https://twitter.com/JFinDallas/status/673712068382490624
Thx scott. Hope GS have a better track record of calling triangles than I have. In any case I think once this down wave is over we should see another ‘up’ wave. Whether it leads to a new ATH is debatable at this point.
here’s an interesting read and take from JPMorgan. regardless if you are bull or bear, expect HUGE volatility next 10 days.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-07/beware-massive-stop-loss-jpms-head-quant-warns-unexpected-downside-catalyst-looms-ne
It is ZH though scott, so probably nothing, they like to call *crash* every day since 666 in 2009.
Russell 2000 weak today, and if not careful, it will break down from a wedge.
It has a gap to fill some way lower too, I recommend it does that in the next day or two.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/mCob5GjV/
HUI took a hammering today, but it’s shaking odd weak bulls, whereas the SPX is shaking off weak bears. Be strong!
GM, on the Russell it needs a 5th wave up to 120 or just above for the Diagonal pattern to complete.
Thanks purvez.
Tomorrow is day 25 in the 25 day trading cycle that I’ve mentioned. A plunge today and tomorrow would be fine and I’ll take profits and start again. Somewhere around ES 2000 perhaps?
I think those who want to catch the big plunge will need to get short ahead of the Fed meeting, and hold on tight.
Cyclical Dollar rally has more to go; Commodities like Gold will continue to be pressured lower:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-the-dollar-rally-will-continue-133121436.html
Hi all. Technically Europe especially the DAX FTSE and the ASX Allords look horrible on the monthly and weekly charts.
They’re all breaking down and unless Draghi or some other saviour can appear out of the sunset this is going to get really bad soon.
Commodities are signalling major deflationary collapse and I suspect at some point soon we are going to get a MAJOR or series of major corporate defaults.
This commodity price collapse can NOT continue without major consequences.
The US indices will follow the rest of the world down and eventually overtake to the downside.
There will be no rate rise this month, the Fed can not possibly risk it given the commodity rout.
An absolutely horrible horrible looking chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24FTSE&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p43422421784
And I strongly suggest that those expecting the USD to serve as safe haven status this time around are going to be very surprised.
Destruction of global debt will mean destruction of the USD right along with every other currency.
Destruction of global (Eurodollar) debt means the dollar index will rise.
A squeeze. Watch CB liquidity swaps.
No buddy. Destruction of global debt means the destruction of dollar dominated debt…..PERIOD…… In one word EVAPOURATION.
The USD will collapse faster than all the others.
Of course I meant “denominated”
When dollar debts evaporate, does that there are more or less dollars remaining in the world?
Banks, which have dollar liabilities, are suddenly short dollar assets. Squeeze.
UP Up and away will do DXY.
Covering shorts this morning into this weakness. Will start scaling in long today with a 2040 SL.
Will be buying 2053-50 area
At the height of the mining boom this guy was worth over $2b. Today he is struggling to stay afloat.
This scenario is quietly being repeated the world over. Does anyone seriously believe that it won’t have unintended consequences for the greater global economy?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-08/fate-of-clive-palme's-queensland-nickel-unclear-after-bid-fails/7008640
So far today it looks like BTFD still rules the S+P500/DOW. What would it mean if today completely reverses its early sell off and closes much higher?
Some of the easiest and fastest money that can be made in trading is in the retracement of Elliot Diagonal Triangles (rising or falling Wedges). When the Large Specs are at historical or new historical extremes of commitments then the odds are very high that the usual rapid retracement will occur. Practically, this is because of cascading Stops being hit one right after the other.
It looks like this is starting to happen in March, 2016, World Sugar futures (ICE Sugar #11).
Increasing numbers of charts are indicating that the bull is now behind us. To elaborate on this for Purvez… that means no new highs.
Despite the reluctance of the major intervention recipients to acquiesce, their reluctance is of course totally futile and their breakdowns are already into wave 3 of the first impulsive down-leg. This big bear is already upon the planet and there is absolutely nothing anyone can do to stop it.
Now ~there~ is a post that everyone can follow… hahaha
Don’t have to agree, necessarily,but one can easily understand what Peter is saying here…
I certainly agree 100% though…. Just looking at HY alone, I believe the US stock market is poised to go much, much lower from here…
Doesn’t have to be a crash, but regardless, please continue to count me among the bears…
And for those long, “thank you”…. *big hug*
You’re welcome! See, isn’t this nice?
hahaha! Geno, you don’t count here… 🙂
You’re likely to be long, and short, and long, and back short again, all in the same week, taking money on each… I’m jealous…
Way above my pay grade, but done well, sir… Done well…
Forgot to add: “Thank you, Peter, appreciate the comment…”
Also wanted to mention that the S&P/HYG Ratio is at a new high today…
It’s at 25.4…
A little reference, it turned a ST top on Aug 17th at 24.3, again on Nov 3rd at 24.7….
Doesn’t ~have~ to crater here, but just sayin’…..
transports getting destroyed, now below oct 2014 lows. big bear hug to all the btfdippers.
here’s another chart for you purvez, collapse imminent:) https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPY/S5fITrvI-SPY-Bill-Williams-3-Lines/
SHORT TRADE SIGNAL
Green line below red line
Red line below blue line
Bearish two-bar reversal
spy at 2065 timestamp 2 pm cst
People, people….please understand I’m NOT advocating a NEW HIGH. Just suggesting the ‘POSSIBILITY’ of one. Particularly given how most here have a bearish stance and the ‘Seasonal Positive’ impact, I’d rather no one got caught out on the wrong side of a trade during the Festive Season. THAT would be a MAJOR BUMMER!!
Just keep an open mind and trade what you ‘see’ rather than what you ‘want to see’.
I’ve been a bear for some time now but it would be plain wrong to ignore what happens around this time of the year. IF this time is ‘different’ then YAAAA HOOO!! but the odds are not in our (the bear’s favour) here.
GLTA….sincerely.
I decided to bank all of my profits at around 3pm this afternoon (GMT..GM time that means).
As usual, based on gut feeling, the bounce had started, and I was +9%, so just grabbed it.
I have a feeling we’ll have one more bounce up to the 2090 ES level, possibly to coincide with bullishness into the Fed meeting, so I will load up again there.
But things may just fall apart now, c’est la vie.
Seems inevitable this one goes to the end….of the triangle…..2 days after Fed day.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/BkiUbjUy/
Then?
Seems interest rates are a’rising.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
Defaults next?
Haha GM we’ll make a trader of you yet!! Congrats on your profits!
Well played GM, I was out last night and blind drunk but *closing* trades whilst inebriated is fine imho so I also took 75% of my Nikkei, FTSE and SPX shorts as well as the last of my USO. Still somewhat short the QQQ and long GDX.
J
Thanks purvez and jeger.
No, I don’t want to be a trader p, too busy, too stressful, just messing around whilst gold bottoms out, then into some junior gold miners for a few years, that’s the plan.
Uhmmm OK, GM….but where’s the adrenaline in THAT? I have an alternative theory for life (I suspect you all know, I ALWAYS have an alternative theory to everything)
The older you get the MORE ADRENALINE you need to stay ‘ALIVE’ not less. These medics (and I have an inordinate number of them in my family (indo pak origin to blame for that culture)) don’t have a clue. They like the CBs only know how to spout the ‘rule book’ rather than LIFE.
To be fair I do have a nephew who has umpteen trillion brain cells (a doc, PhD, whatever, whatever etc..and just turned 30) that he uses to good effect….and agrees with me on ‘most’ counts. Now THAT’s what I call a ‘proper’ scientist.
I’m all for some adrenaline purvez, but find it in sports, and in other areas, I’d rather my finances were as steady as is possible, given that the world is FUBAR.
Maybe some civil war, a world war, totalitarian communism and the collapse of all of that might get a bit exciting at time. 😦
since we are missing John Hampson’s fantastic charts and analysis, i am posting northman trader’s charts as of the close 12.8.15 http://northmantrader.com/technical-charts/
Just updating a prior Nov 9 comment that I made about how today’s action is tracking very closely to late 1998 just prior to upcoming bullish euphoria.
Nov 9:
“Specifically, the relative highs and lows back in 1998 for SPX was July 20: 1190, Aug 31, 957.3, Sep 23 1066, Oct 5/8: 964.7/923.3, Oct 20/21: -26 dip to 1058, Nov 6 to 12: -26 dip to 1115.6, Nov 27: 1193, Dec 3: 1150, Dec 8: 1193.5, Dec 14: 1137, and Jan8-1999: 1278.
Contrast to today’s market action for relative highs and lows for 2015: July 20: 2133, Aug 24: 1867, Sep 17: 2021, Sep29/Oct2: 1872/1894, Oct13/14 -31 dip to 1991, Nov 3 to 9: -48 dip to 2068.”
Ironically, the market just after Nov 9 decided to take an extended selloff by one further week, so Nov 3 to 16: -97 dip to 2019.4. Then the action went like this: Nov 20: 2097 (hi), Nov 24: 2070 (lo), Dec 2: 2104.3 (hi), and so far a relative low at 2042.4 on Dec 3.
It is interesting to note that despite the extended selloff of 13 days (Nov 3 to 16, 2015) relative to the 6 days of Nov 3 to 9 1998, the time frame of relative lows to highs are equivalent and it “caught up”. I.e. Oct 21, 1998 (lo) to Nov 27, 1998 (hi) = +37CD … and … Oct 14, 2015 (lo) to Nov 20, 2015 (hi) = +37CD.
On a technical charting basis SPX is (obviously) trading in a sideways channel since hitting the Nov 3 peak. On a short term duration this is the dominant technical pattern and nestled within it are various pitchfork downtrend channels and multiple triangles to confuse everyone even further.
But for the clearer picture keep in mind that the two recent peaks forming the sideways channel are Nov 3 and Dec 2. The bottom of the channel can be defined by the Nov 13 low. Thus on a time scale count the next projected low should occur by the end of this week (Dec 11). If the bottom of the nestled triangle holds at 2050 by Dec 11 then that might be it for downside. If that level gets broken to the downside in these next three TD’s then maximum potential downside would be anywhere in the 2010-2020 range with possibility of it only just retesting 2040 (Dec 3) again.
However you want to look at it this week is pointing towards an ideal buying opportunity for a much bigger upside move if/when it breaks out of its current sideways consolidation level. There are many others whose analysis point towards a pending downside breakout at this time, but my own work identifies such a scenario could happen but only after it runs higher first and potential downturns would occur in early 2016.
Steve – If we break up out of this range the likely target is 2190
Steve T, I have no idea when you posted that note above but as I’m looking at the ‘action’ at 15:17 BST 9th Dec’15 and if ‘this’ is not an impulse wave…then I’ve lived a very SHELTERED life indeed.
Hi Steve,
Do you have a market vision for the rest of this month?
I see to possibilities.
1. we will go up a little and sideways into opex and hard down afterwards just like Jan 2008
2. We will continue down till next bradley Jan 13 and up afterwards
Thanks in advance.
John.
Emerging Markets to spiral downwards after FED raises rates:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-08/emerging-markets-warned-of-perfect-storm-as-fed-nears-liftoff
Brazil sliding into Depression:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-01/brazil-gdp-falls-more-than-analysts-expected-as-demand-withers
More downgrades to come in 2016 as Brazil slides into Depression:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/expect-more-downgrades-brazil-120021290.html;_ylt=A0SO80kDlmdWLTUAcLVXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEybGlqdjVyBGNvbG8DZ3ExBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDQjExNTlfMQRzZWMDc2M-
Brazil corporate downgrades expected to be 10:1 to upgrades in 2016 (much worse than in 2015):
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-07/brazil-s-unprecedented-torrent-of-downgrades-is-set-to-get-worse
Brazil’s Economy shrinks by record 4.5%:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d2d7e33e-982c-11e5-bdda-9f13f99fa654.html#axzz3t5p2Q8qx
The break of an ending diagonal is typically potent and potentially ruinous. And that is exactly what we are looking at.
Ending diagonals are everywhere once again. Even the dollar index…
http://barestbodkins.blogspot.co.za/
Steve – Based on the prior two waves, the optimal time frame for a low was 12/3 or 12/9. Both of these have produced lows so far (we’ll see if they hold). The vertical, shaded area on the chart was where I expected a low based on waves 2 or B and 3 or C. If this is a 5 wave move I expect the breakout to tag 2190. If not, and we take out the 2019 low, I would expect MINIMUM 1880 and probably lower.
Chart: https://a.disquscdn.com/uploads/mediaupload/tmp/d23f9344d84057bac69aaa23d354495a49d5e121ad075d8768c894c8/original.jpg
Just bought some Feb SPX calls, so lets see if I can manage to lose money on both the puts and the calls…..
J
jeger, is this you ‘giving something back’ to the markets for the ‘GIVING season’? LOL. I do like your sense of humour.
Middle of Nov DOW found support at 100 day sma and now finding support at 200 day sma. If so, will DOW rally up to new ATH? Could it be that simple?
My take is that it tested its breakdown today. Maybe it is stubborn and will try again.. http://barestbodkins.blogspot.co.za/
Not a popular view it seems, what do you think?
I have opened some long (paper) gold positions this morning.
A 2x long gold ETF, and 2 gold miner ETFs.
Just a trade, as I think gold’s final low lies ahead, but short term charts looking bullish for gold/miners. We will see!
Paper trader! I’m liking gold and silver, even if they make new lows. I’ve been buying up some 1oz Pamp Suisse off Ebay.
Chased after some JNUG as well this morning….
Not a big position, but who needs a lot when you’re in a 3X gold miner ETF? hahaha
Perhaps the Fed has also messed up the skew signal…due to stress tests.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-09/who-s-the-bear-driving-up-the-price-of-u-s-stock-options-banks
So I was bullish too early! Switched to short until end of next week and then bullish for the Santa rally. Hope we get a good drop in the next week to get good long entry prices. Still expect euro dollar parity so DAX will explode upwards when this latest euro rally is over. My personal euro target is around 1.11 before the drop to 1.00 in Q1 2016. Dax target 12k by end of Q1 2016. US indices should remain flat at best but more likely drop. And then of course the long awaited crash across the board will follow that.
How are you arriving at these decisions Krish? The reason I ask is that personally I only trade on price movement, except in commodities where I couple it with fundamentals.
I therefore do not understand the process where someone will go long or short for a set period unless a well-defined pattern or process is being followed (say, ala Valley).
The risk as I see it is that one can be repeatedly too early or late to be long or short if one doesn’t react quickly…..how do you deal with this aspect in your process?
TIA
J
Whenever I feel my ‘head being smacked flat’ AND my ‘legs being pushed into my midriff’ I start to think….bl@@dy triangle!!. This one is more deceptive (aren’t they all?). Since the early Nov high to the mid Nov low is wave ‘a’. Then it get’s ‘clever’. From the mid Nov lows it rises quickly but then waffles for a couple of weeks to form a ‘b’ high before starting ‘another’ triangle for ‘c’ (which is not as unusual as it sounds). Here’s the count for the triangle ‘c’:
Down to early Dec for ‘a of c’ then a charge up for ‘b of c’ the following day and then another charge down for ‘c of c’ till yesterday and today we are seeing both the up wave of ‘d of c’ AND the final down wave of ‘e of c’.
IF anyone want’s to trade this buckaroo then take a long trade on the DJIA (time stamp Dec 9 17:03 BST) at 17580ish with a stop at just under 17500 for a ‘d’ wave and a profit target at 17800. (Not the kind of odds I’d be happy with though).
Remember AFTER this little scenario we still have another down wave for ‘e’ before the big ‘Santa rally’ ramp starts. REMEMBER ALSO my ‘success rate’ with triangle please.
I know I’m giving it ‘human’ characteristics….BUT if anyone else has ‘other’ thoughts then I would be ALL EARS.
BTW I’ve seen Peter_’s Barest Bodkin set of charts and I don’t disagree with them. However the ‘shorter term charts’ are suggesting a different tune…although they will eventually succumb to his ‘longer term analysis’.
Thanks for the comment, sometimes I doubt everything.
So do I and so should all those who trade. Strange as this may sound ‘doubt helps bolster conviction’
Oops since writing the above the action has gotten even more ‘interesting…worrying?’ It’s been a long time since I’ve seen a 250 point ramp followed by a 250 point fall…all in the spate of a few hours.
Much as I like volatility this is ‘vomit inducing’…sorry for the graphic description.
Do ‘computers vomit’? I ask myself.
Please if anyone knows the CAUSE of this ‘violent’ action today then please do post as I can’t find any ‘news’ that would make this happen.
If the markets are starting to ‘fall apart’ all by themselves then I’m just going to go short and stick through ALL the volatility regardless of how empty my poor stomach gets.
Purvez – Crude getting whacked after distillate build.
HUH!!?? I can’t for the life of me believe that today’s action is ALL due to ‘oil levels’. That’s toooo easy an answer…sorry geno. There is something else brewing that we don’t ‘know / understand’. We are getting close to your Dec 14th turn so may be another bout lower just to emphasis the point?
Also GM had today as 25th trading day cycle count.
Regardless of the violent action today on a ‘step back and look at rationally’ scale today’s action would just count as wave ‘c’ of the larger triangle that I suggested started at the early Nov high. So…until the mid Nov lows get taken out then that is my ‘preferred’ count.
Yeah, if you look at the chart I posted last night the low should come in today wave 3 was 25 td, wave 4 is 25td today.
Pretty convincing trap that one, let’s see where we go from here. At this rate I may just get some profit on both calls and puts….maybe….
J
LOL – Guess I should’ve waited until Friday to buy like my original plan. Not down much though since I got good entries. I’m adding long on this drop.
not really sure why you guys couldn’t see this coming. i have posted 5-6 times on this site the history of the week before monthly exo options week. spiral targets posted and met multiple times. major topping patterns. congrats bears. bear hugs to those who weren’t so fortunate.
scott, are you really saying that you were expecting today’s 250+ point ramp AND the subsequent 300+ point drop on the DJIA?
If so please would you help us all by giving us some ‘before the event’ guidance next time.
Thanks.
Not Scott, obviously, but for me, no,didn’t see a rally occurring today…
And sometimes markets move just “because”, without there being anything that seems to make sense behind it… I think we saw that in action this morning…
Just know i am currently in “Sell the rallies” mode…and everything else is just a distraction….
Barry, you’ve been a longer term ‘bear’ for a while like most of us and therefore your stance is totally understandable.
I was under the impression that scott had a ‘shorter time frame’ in mind that he may have traded. Hence my comment to him above.
Today’s ramp in the ‘larger scheme of things’ was a non-event but if you were trading shorter time frames them it was in my view quite a HUGE event.
I guess the reason I sound ‘irked’ is because I did get the start of the ramp and was feeling all ‘chuffed’ at the thought of it going back above the recent highs when it turned down and wiped the ‘smirk’ off my face.
Then scott wrote his piece and that didn’t help with my bruised ego!!
Apologies to scott and all else for the ‘strop’.
It was a huge suckers rally….spy and dow up huge, but qqqs not participating. it was a smoke screen so institutions could sell while retail suckers chased fang. institutions and hedge funds net sellers a minimum the last 2 weeks. retail suckers sucked in again chasing rainbows and nicolaus.
can’t be any more clear than IMMINENT
Indeed, ABJECT APOLOGIES once again.
Agreed, Scott… Have no idea what some of these guys are looking at…
I’m seeing ~nothing~ in the charts that would make me want to buy here, or yesterday… And HY is simply cratering…
If the argument is that you think Energy or Gold is over-sold,and you want to take a “scout” long, I get that, but holy crap, you couldn’t PAY ME to be long much else…
I expect to trade above 2052 this afternoon. I’m definitely buying today.
That’s ambitious geno. I usually find that the ‘trending’ day doesn’t give up it’s ‘advantage’ so easily ON THE DAY. The day after is a more likely scenario. But yes you are right to be buying because as I said earlier this still feels like a ‘c’ wave of the triangle that ‘MAY’ have started in early Nov.
Until the mid Nov lows get taken out then I have to remain on the ‘bullish’ side….also given the time of year.
I have gone long Rough Rice futures. I almost went long yesterday. Today’s WASDA report shows that for a third year in a row World consumption of Rice will exceed production and reserves will decline.
Not only is this El Nino expected to be the strongest on record but, now, there are predictions that it will be the longest lasting. I suspect that Rough Rice futures sold off due to the expectation that the MJO would break the on going droughts in India and SE Asia. It didn’t. Not only that but the backside of the MJO is always a “ridge” which means dryness/drought. That ridge is going to add to the El Nino and intensify the on going Droughts in India and SE Asia. That is why I was looking to go long yesterday before today’s WASDA report came out.
Here is the phase diagram for the MJO index:
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/phasediags.html
The MJO is a low pressure system (rains) that move slowly along the Equator from west to east in the upper atmosphere which is counter to the surface winds that blow from east to west. On the back side (west of) the MJO is always a ridge with reduced rainfall along the Equator/Tropics. India is experiencing that ridge added to the El Nino drought and SE Asia (Thailand and Viet Nam) will soon start felling it too right along with the continued El Nino Drought. What this means is that for several months to come their El Nino Droughts will get much worse as the MJO dryness/drought adds to it.
Is Africa affected? South Africa is suffering higher temperatures and absence of seasonal rains.
Powerful El Ninos cause the Southern Tropical Convergence Zone to cease to exist which is why there is major drought in the south half of Africa.
Powerful confirmed.
Global rice prices are expected to surge 10% to 20% as El Nino intensifies:
http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/business/philippines-set-miss-2015-rice-production-target/
Rough Rice futures look to be taking off in an Elliot major 3rd wave.
Is a major Yen rally starting:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-07/yen-embraced-by-u-s-banks-as-heir-apparent-to-dollar-s-throne
Its always easy with hindsight, the spiral has been a bit off lately in my opinion – but I don’t look at it that often. Pretty spectacular moves in terms of volatility today and VIX at resistance, but no major damage done either way imho from a larger priice perspective. Yet…..but it feels like a coiled spring right now so I have light exposure and Feb SPX puts and calls. Still short QQQ and long GDX.
No need for bears or bulls gloating, actually looking back over the past 6 weeks only 64% of my overall profit were bear points, the rest was bull:)
J
Aaah the sound of ‘reason’. Thanks jeger. Once again I apologise for ‘sounding off’.
Next time I’ll take deep breaths at least 50 times before posting something that I instinctively don’t like.
Anyone got a ‘breathometer’ that I could borrow please? LOL.
People I KEEP looking at the DJIA chart since the early Nov highs and I can’t see any thing that is ‘impulsive or trending’ for more than a day at the most.
Today’s move down on the DJIA has to gather a HUGE amount of momentum to come close to or BELOW the mid Nov lows or we are still within this ‘triangle in my mind’.
LMAO!………USD down a whopping 1% which is a huge move in currency terms and Au is up a whole .20c.
Of course this is all normal……NOT…….it will be very enligjtening to see how many short contracts the commercials had to add to keep the lid on gold in the next COT report.
What a JOKE!………..
Allan, from everything that you’ve said and from all your posts on your trades….you are a LOOOONG TERM trader. So just chill and let ‘others’ with shorter perspectives take the heat while you enjoy the ‘summer’ down your end. WISH I WAS THERE.
You and we ALL know it will end up in your lap at the end. Just some CB ‘hills’ to stumble over first sadly.
Tagged 2051.48, not quite over 2052, but if you can’t make money off a 15 pt swing shame on you!
Then I am shamed. Often. haha
J
Good sensible stuff at this site:
http://rightsideofthechart.com/vix-approaching-key-resistance-level/#comments
$US index is busy with 3rd leg of the d-wave. The e-wave up can interact with indices, however like all other readily observable diagonals a fail to achieve a new high on the e-wave should see the real action commence.
This one is for Allan, or anyone that believes the disinformation spread about Comex gold:
http://kiddynamitesworld.com/the-worst-precious-metals-meme-of-2015/
(Summary: every ounce in Comex warehouses is owned by someone, Comex are just a middle-man).
GM, that’s another good site you’ve introduced. Thx very much.
It is indeed, but I wonder if Allan will read it and realise he’s bought the fabrications put out by the gold promoters? Hope so.
Funny thing: If you bought yesterday and added today, you’re probably near breakeven like me!
Glencore is crazy today, some millions being made and lost in that POS…maybe patience and trade the gap close?
imho
J
The USDA just reported that USA weekly export sales of Rice are 47% greater than the prior week and 89% greater than the four week moving average. I am of the opinion that Rough Rice futures have just started back up in an Elliot major 3rd wave. “3rd” waves are often 1.6 (Fibo) times the 1st wave and often much more. Elliot major 3rd waves are what Ellioticians “drool at the mouth” to try to position on:
http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/highlite.htm
Long SPX and several SPY calls at 2052. “could” see 2080 next two days.
PALS has good rating until Monday at close.
As you are probably aware, for some strange reason during the past two months since late Sep, the lunar moon phase appears to have inverted where declines occurred during the positive phases and huge rallies during the negative phases …
Is it because the declination cycle is now out of step with NM/FM cycle? That is what I am assuming but haven’t checked back.
Steve – There’s a certain cycle pertaining to the moon that the SP-500 has been following to the day.
Yes, lunar cycle has been out of sync recently.
Welcome to the long side! How have you been?
Hi Geno, excellent, focusing on day trading futures in the SPX. It is fun, fast paced, and so far so good. I am using PALS along with some daily pivot data from Intradayseasonals.com that seems highly correlated to average daily moves in the SPX. Free chart. Recommend you download it.
Hi Valley thanks for your tip next week December 15 is Mercury latitude midpoint what is your view on that do you think we will see a postive or negative week ?
Thanks ..
John.
Thanks, for the mercury latitude mid point idea. Will look at that. Also Jupiter square sun on 12/15 also.
Is the Yen rallying in an Elliot “3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd”? The greatest 3rd being on monthly charts going back over 20 years.
This is something that a person I subscribe to wrote today:
—-
Even in 2007 – when the action during the 4th Quarter had me cautioning folks that a bear market was on the way – I was still willing to buy stocks when they hit oversold levels in mid-December. Santa did not disappoint us back then…..
—
Unlike this person I have been ‘burnt’ by NOT following that advice, hence my stance over the last few days about being careful when short at this time of year.
so you are going long then P? 🙂
J
Made 20 points on the DJIA today (on the short side) when it decided to have a surge about half an hour after opening and since then everything I’ve tried has been cancelled out by the choppy action. My daily ‘objective’ is to clear about 50 points on the DJIA in the day.
Today has been just frustrating.
I’ve been looking for a further drop to complete the ‘c’ wave of the triangle from the early Nov high but the market is not in a mood to cooperate.
I’ve also got a ‘boozy’ session with some mates this evening so I’m already in party mood and not taking any more ‘chances’.
Until I feel certain that the market has finished it’s ramp up I’m not taking any overnight positions.
Mella is Northan Trader’s wife appararently, and she only tweets publicly when a major turn is at hand, so she says. A recent follow of mine:
I’m of the view that possibly I took profits too early on my shorts, but loaded up on leveraged gold and miners, bit of ammo spare still, so let’s get the crash going, just in time for Santa.
Just after I wrote the above in response to Jeger ‘this happens’.
http://postimg.org/image/4dlzbfcg9/
I’ve been waiting patiently for the red arrow bit ALL BLEEDING DAY!! Now that I’m all dolled up for the party I’ve got to make a decision whether to take this trade to the down side or not!!
UGH It’s going to be worth about 300 points.
What would you guys do?
Leave a note ….. I’m off partying. LOL.
Any further dip for gold will surely be the last… but it now looks good to go from here, especially if the e-wave is also seen as an ending diagonal…
http://barestbodkins.blogspot.co.za/
Your pension fund could not be given anything better.
Looks like gold is caught in the middle of buyers seeking safety and sellers caught by margin calls and seeking liquidity.
Just added further 2x etf long at $1063, I think the safety hid will win out shortly.
Nice chart by the way, any upside targets and timescales?
This is a test comment, as 2 recent comments of mine have not appeared on the blog.
There are more people working on “legal” software to extract personal and usage information from unsuspecting surfers than there are hackers of the unlawful type.
Beware of hidden scripts in web pages. Use NoScript. .
Thanks Peter_
I installed it, but I have no idead when or how to use it.
I trust this site and others, but how would one know when to block scripts.
I don’t even know what a script is.
If scripts in web pages can be dangerous why do most of us not know about them?
The conspiracy theory seems inapplicable but something about collective human secrecy for some sort of personal gain appears involved. Sort of like subscribing to trading tips and just knowing you got to keep them a secret without being told.
“Steve – There’s a certain cycle pertaining to the moon that the SP-500 has been following to the day.”
Geno, could you please elaborate as to what specific moon cycle you are referring to? I was referring to the full moon / new moon cycle which had been very accurate this year right up to mid-Oct (new moon), and since that time it appears to have inverted relative to the stock market action.
The time has come for the Japanese Yen: BTFDs.
As I alluded to earlier this week by end of this week Dec11 was (in theory) supposed to allow for a major buying opportunity at a significant low with projected maximum low of SPX possibly 2010-2020. Well, it so far hit 2021’s and so this is the buying opportunity for a potential 80-100 point rally next week (theoretically). GLTA.
The time count is also impeccable especially if you review the “twin towers” (i.e. huge up day followed by next day giving it all back and more) of Nov 3/4 and 7TD for a 90 point decline. Dec 1/2 had similar “twin towers” and today is the 7th TD and so far an 82 point decline. The main difference is that this time exhibited extreme choppy action of 30-40 point declines followed immediately by similar amounts, which is a dream for day traders and a nightmare for swing and position traders.
This is also the mid-month extreme low which hits the lower channel support trendline bound by Oct 21, Nov 13, and (projected) Dec 11.
That is my guess. 2100 by next Friday.
Oke Valley so we had a bradley turn this weekend and we will see a positive Mercury midpoint 14-15 Dec-
Next Bradley is arround December 20 should be a high.
Yellen will deliver magic again..
Nice weekend..
John.
Thanks, John. Will be watching market very closely next two weeks for a repeat of last years SPX blow off rally. Fun, fun, fun =)
What does the options cycle say? With both expiration and FOMC next week, and then quiet holiday…might there be a mad Xmas rush?
A rush in, or a rush to get out? 😉
How’s everybody doin’ :):) did we learn any lessons from rereading the blog just prior to August 24th?
Did we notice the long time bears capitulating and turning bullish?
Did we notice Nicolaus is has been an extended vacation for weeks?
Did we see big range volatility up and down as the retail buy the dippers refuse to stop until they get decimated?
Did we see on the rally from two days ago that FANG wasn’t participating and rallies were being sold off with quick reversals?
Did we remember that on 9 out of the last 11 months contained huge selloffs in the two weeks leading into monthly expirations?
or Did we fight the fed and ignore two years worth of data/charts from John and Northman trader.
A good day to take chips off the table if you got them and let the rest ride.
GLTA
Good questions there scott.
For myself, as a self-confessed crap trader, I am peeved with taking profits a couple of days ago, but it is hard, as the market has been up and down like a yoyo these past few weeks, and I’d allowed a previous gain to evaporate.
I suppose one could take chips off the table today and feel peeved if markets fell another 5%, but as you say, take some off leave some to ride is a sensible approach. Live and learn, I hope other bears have banked some nice coin this past week.
Hi GM…
I was thinking of you this morning as well…
For you, i am sad….
But understand completely the yo-yo wearing on a person lately…
To be fair, I am struggling mightily right now to continue sitting on my hands here…
Thanks Barry, but no need to feel sad on my behalf, I did bank a decent profit, and got into some gold and miners positions at what I hope are attractive levels.
One mustn’t be greedy and this isn’t an exact science after all.
Just now sold off all TVIX positions…
I was about 404% net short, so it’s not a “market statement”, just a risk reduction decision…
And as GM pointed out, it’s the yoyo effect having an effect on a person….
*please, God, please don’t let this be a huge mistake…*
Hmmm I’m not a fan of the market handing me things on a plate. I keep looking for the trap door. Ungrateful? Certainly….but with good historical reasons.
Still I think both Steve T and scott are right about either taking your ‘short’ profits or adding long trades here.
This drop is however too idyllic a spot for the ‘c’ wave down to end, of a triangle starting at the early Nov highs.
However if you don’t trade what you ‘see’ then what the hell can you trade?
Should’ve stuck to my original plan and waited for today to buy
#underwater
geno, you can’t win them all. If you can stick it out then you should be fine by mid week next week IMO. We could however lose another 70-100 points on the DJIA before this ends.
No doubt. I’m not worried. The options I bought are down about 27% so far. I’ll probably just add to them today.
for those looking for a bounce and willing to take a chance with some house money. 2010.83 on spy w/ 10pt stop and dow at 17255.22 w/ 100 pt stop. we are close to a another pivot support. unless we flash crash on monday,
Well, I see I cost myself about $10k by getting out of TVIX too soon…
Lets see if i can make a SECOND mistake….
Just bought ERX…. Still very net short, just a counter-trend trade…
congrats on pocketing coin barry… been a very tricky market w/ white noise EVERYWHERE trying to shake conviction. i’d actually like to see a santa clause rally now to reset an opportunity to reload around 207-208ish. spiral has nailed its targets again. spiral still targeting 1582 6months + caution at this level advised looking for much further downside. i saw a fake print about a month ago of 190.86 when spy was at 210 ish. i think max downside before a sizable bounce may be 197ish.
i like goldman sachs at 176 w/ 7 point stop
this doesn’t look good….especially with our traitor president and attorney general focused on black lives matter and protecting civil liberties over protecting the american people
https://www.rt.com/usa/325571-phones-propane-terrorist-missouri/
No worries… I’m in my “safe space”… 😉
Something is afoot:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/nXFAH24i/
This is not *natural*, but it does signal a rate rise next week.
Just prudent planning right?
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_151118
Is this what trading is supposed to look like (DAX 1 hour) ? ..
http://www.screencast.com/users/prince3000/folders/Default/media/3c4b998c-b3a2-4c56-b7c3-e53a28372e0a
Heading down to the bottom of the pitchfork?(or quick monday rise to cancel out profits).
Here is last years DAX chart…the mid pitchfork was hit on December 14/15th., retested in January and then bounced up up and away from 9500 to 12400 in April.
Here the image for that last post: link:http://www.screencast.com/users/prince3000/folders/Default/media/03f67cab-d09e-4cb8-9afd-2ce00aa8a5c4
God knows this is not the place for any doubting Thomas, and yet no one really ever stops. Even when the charts shout louder than ever, still they are not just casually but totally ignored. Even Caldaro has taken a long standing reputation related position that there is is still a bull around the corner. Well the charts have tried so hard to tell us what is happening and so have I. Why the hell should anyone bother I do not know. Long standing bulls should just stomp their feet and demand more fodder. And God knows that fools are plentiful.
Like usual, went through about 500 charts since last night, and after all that, I’m pretty sure of one thing….
And that is, I wish I was more short than I am…
I came into the week 404% net short, took some positions off late Friday morning, and am now at 147% net short…
The ~only~ two areas I’d be long are the PM’s (which i don’t include in my general stock market holdings), and ~some~ energy issues….
Many energy stocks look like they’re trying to bottom, but some others look like they are not close to finding a bottom yet… Gotta be selective here…
That said,the market seems VERY oversold here, and we seemed to get some panic Friday… So I’m really crossing my fingers here that we can muster up a good bounce next week, even though that’ll cost me some money…short-term….
Not really seeing it in too many charts, but still, seems like a reasonable spot for a bounce, market-ebbs-and-flows-wise…
That said, I really go back and forth here because the close Friday looks a LOT like the close August 21st, but still, trying to find a bounce here….
And if we get it, you can bet i’ll be layering those shorts back on….
As well, I got an “extreme” oversold signal on my HY indicators (probably not a surprise to anyone), and that usually indicates a bounce there coming up almost immediately… So that’s supportive of the SM too..
If we don’t get a pop up in HY very soon, we’re in a collapse…
Just my thoughts on a Saturday…
GLTA
I know that probably over 90% of you here are looking for a higher USD and lower gold.
I don’t see it. What I see is the USD making what is highly likely a double top. The USD weekly chart has glaringly obvious negative divergences emerging in many indicators while the recent COT stats were hugely bullish for gold.
With the USD recently supporting the greatest bullish lop-sided trade in history and the US Fed now painted into a corner RE rates, all those that have moved to the bullish side on the USD are about to get smashed.
With crude collapsing, EM’s in perilous state and corporate default risk rising exponentially, the negative USD divergence is a very ominous signal.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p12348309051
The reasons for the USD collapse are simple:
The US markets are by far the most overvalued markets in the world. US corporations are horrendously over leverged in debt.
Whilst many feel that global USD debt is a massive short on the dollar, much of that debt will be defaulted upon, thus it actually becmoes a huge anchor around the dollar.
Couple massive US corporate defaults with a collapsing stock market and massive liquidation of USD denominated assets and foreign repatriation of those dollars back to local currencies and the dollar will and IS going to collapse.
USD bonds will not be the safe haven this time around so will offer little support to the dollar. The US Fed has ensured that the bond markets have are also a bubble.
Last man standing will be gold.
Save this comment for the early 2030s Allan, it’ll be spot on then.
But not in the next few years.
Time will prove all things, I’m not going to repeat my case.
But, how you think dollar debt being defaulted meaning less dollars leads to a lower price is a mystery to me.
Watch those dollar liquidity swap lines flood the system as the squeeze gets tighter.
GM, just a quick question, specifically related to the US$ vs. Euro….
If someone had US dollars now, and knew they would be needing Euros to make a large purchase 18-24 months from now, would you make any attempt to hedge any short-term euro rallies with FXE or ULE, or simply be happy to wait it out in US Dollars, and make the conversion at the end of the term?
TAI,
Barry
Barry, timing is tricky, but I expect the Euro versus the dollar to weaken in the first stages of this recession. 18-24 months probably I’d wait, or do the conversion in stages through the dip.
Good enough! That simplifies that part of the process…
Just basically ignore the ST gyrations, and over time, the US$ continues to appreciate against the Euro….
Basically, do nothing…. I can do that… hahaha
Thank you…
Fully invested in SPX on long side. Looking for very substantial up move commencing after Fed meeting with most of the move happening Thursday and Friday. Planetary Aspect Lunar Seasonals (PALS) has rating of 4/5 this week. Last week was 2/5. So seems to be in sync.
Good luck valley.
Are you planning to fade any rally?
Short opportunity of a lifetime?
I trade mechanically according to short term PALS ratings. Hoping it works even during bear markets as it did in 2008.
Valley,
Are you working with weekly options.. I have some spread on SPX 2065/2080.
Yes, weeklies are better even tho’ time decay is too fast.
Hi Valley,
My gut feeling says we will see a big bounce maybe SP 2100 ( dec 18) but I m conna use it as a dead cat bounce..
Rally -short, good rally -good short, crazy rally – crazy short. The main index chart patterns are in a very rare alignment. The force has awakened.
Have gone long one tranche SPX 2007.4 – as I have Feb puts in profit one could call it a hedge…..
GLA
J
Excuse the language but you couldn’t make this SHIT up if you tried!
Draghi has done it yet again…….. And right on cue in an attempt to stabilise European indices. It surely must now be so obvious to all?
He hides behind a thin veil of concern about economic conditions but we Ll know his real master is GS’s and the stock market.
How much longer markets react to anything this former Goldman stooge says remains to be seen but I suspect his impact is already waning.
“Within our mandate, there are no restrictions to our choice of which tools we use or how,” Draghi said.
“We can always bring inflation to our objective, we must do it, and will do it.”
These words get you so excited Allan?
It will be funny when the ECB QEs into physical gold, I wonder how you will react to that?
South America is going down, down, down, into a Depression:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/12/14/south-america-is-staring-down-an-economic-abyss/
“Peak Rice” is real. Several years ago both Brazil and China stopped exporting Rice and became importers instead. Even though China is the largest producer of Rice, China is now the largest importer too. Exactly eight years ago, 2007-2008, (two Delta four year rotations), Rice prices tripled.
Is Rice hitting “critical mass” meaning that Rice is after “Peak Production” (Post Peak as in “Peak Oil”) –and– the strongest and longest lasting El Nino caused Drought is going to result in another super spike?
Post “Peak Rice”:
http://www.ricenewstoday.com/?p=13933#.VnA1x5VIibM
In 2007/2008 Rice prices tripled. Currently, there are fears that fundamentals are pointing towards the same thing happening again:
http://www.ricenewstoday.com/?p=13909#.VnA3e5VIibM
My apologies to those long equities or long gold miners.
My taking profits on equity shorts and going long gold and its miners last week pretty much guaranteed you were going to lose money.
For my next trick I will cause the Fed to leave rates unchanged this week to remedy the situation!
Haha – I took profits on q’s and Jan puts so no harm done:)
J
Black Wednesday cometh, All sinners will be punished. The only thing with a justifiable positive is $ chart Gold. Enough to make the leader into a laggard. Long term bears can hold, all others gonna fry.
So the shorts have worked well! Closed the DAX shorts and gone long. Still have Dow shorts (should have closed them too!) but waiting for the FED meeting to finish before going full long across the board for the Santa rally.
Good to see you can change your mind Krish. You may need to again very soon…:)
Good luck.
J
This nutjob thinks inverse head & shoulders patterns occur at tops, rather than bottoms:
http://rambus1.com/2015/12/14/indu-update-68/
why do you resort to name calling (ad hominem as you like to call it) when you don’t agree with someone’s analysis? That’s the beauty of the markets: you can have your opinion, I can have mine, and they can be 180 degrees apart.
Me personally, I think Rambus’s charts are amazing, a thing of beauty. He’s sees things others completely miss including, yes, IHS as continuation patterns. Other chartists use H&S and IHS as continuation patterns too, so Rambus is not alone in that regard.
Are you a subscriber of his then?
no, not a sub, but I have read his free posts over the past two or three years. IMO the guy is one of the best long term chartists out there. He sees chart patterns and formations that are unusual and most chartists miss (including me), and his very long term calls have been right on. He saw the crash in PM’s and miners when almost everyone else was extremely bullish.
I have also seen other analysts use IHS and H&S patterns as continuation patterns, so not necessarily at tops or bottoms. Oscar is one of those who do.
But my point was that just because an analyst is using a technical pattern in a way that’s different from the way you’ve used it does not make him (or you!) a nut job.
Rambus has been correct on the overall trend in gold and the miners. Iv’e read criticisms about him changing his mind too often which probably makes him a bad trader or give bad trading advice but I’m talking about the overall long term downtrend in the metals. I think he believes we are currently in State III with a downside washout coming. 2030 before any upside?
I am closing about 20% of my SPX longs at this point, who knows what tomorrow will bring…^^
J
There is still some room on the floor for the last dance, just be careful the floor doesn’t give way before the music stops… http://barestbodkins.blogspot.co.za/
Dr Copper has sounded another warning today.
Nat Gas absolutely hammered of late, along with oil.
Gluts galore.
Let’s see a rising dollar, even with no rate cut, that’ll confuse people.
And a rising gold price too.
i closed another 30%, left the 50% of positions with 12 point profit to see what happens…..:)
J
No big updates for me, but re-building short positions on this rally….
Covered my ERX position this morning, so no longs other than PM positions…
GM would be proud, i’m up to 7.2% (of NW) in that area… hahaha
I’m back up to a 280% net short position in stocks, and looking to add to it on a further rally…
Things are going pretty good lately, so I’m ~sure~ something’s about to f-up somewhere…
I see HY is catching a bid today, which is good, but unless this continues higher immediately, not seeing it as anything more than a quick breather before lower lows…
S&P/HY ratio hit a new high yesterday, and that ain’t good….
Barry, I’ll be proud when you hit double digits in physical gold in a non-bank vault. Or your sock drawer!
We hit 1857 ES on friday, and i might just do that… 😉
On the other hand, I also have 1.7% of net worth in guns and ammo…
I’m good…….for all contingencies….. 😉
Spiral update – approaching first price target 2058. Looking for a low 12/20-21 – price targets 1982, 1973, 1946 basis dec emini
posted 12:30 CST by peggy
I notice that my Feb puts are 70% more expensive than my Feb calls, even though the puts are twice as far from the current price action…..:)
J
SPY will go ex-dividend on Dec 18 for likely over $1.15 …
Hi Steve,
Do you think we will rally into year end and make a correction in Januari?
John, there should be a rally into year end but the unknown is if it only retests the highs or manages to print an incremental new high. At this point I think it might not make a new high this month but likely does so in early Jan. Yes, if a correction occurs then it likely does so before mid-Jan after a new high is hit, although any weakness could just be sideways movement.
Well, here were my trade dates posted ahead of time. Unfortunately I started to get long before my Dec 14th date so am currently b/e on the trades. We should hold 2007 on SPX or down we go.
11/5 Geno say get short, 11/13 geno say get long through Thanksgiving week and get short on 11/30. Geno say get long 12/14
Stops moved up to below overnight low on SPX. Just FYI. Should be fireworks later?
J
Just for fun, shall we have a little ‘predict the future’ competition today?
3 predictions required:
—Fed action today (or lack of it) expressed to two decimal points if you think they raise.
—ES-mini futures closing price on Friday 18th December
—Gold futures closing price on Friday 18th December.
I’ll kick off.
No action from the Fed today, and their language turns more dovish by 45.55%.
ES Friday at 1857
Gold Friday at 1177
Good luck everyone, special prize for the winner, once you’ve all paid me your entry fees of course. 😉
I don’t get what you mean by 45.55% but I think
ES Friday @ 2106
Gold Friday @ 1124
It was mocking the level of attention given to the Fed’s *language’ geno.
You didn’t mention your view on whether they raise?
No raise.
GM what exactly are you smoking please….and where I can I get some? 🙂
The market is in an ‘up’ mood. If the Fed raises it will be taken as a sign that the economy is ‘booming’. If they don’t then…well then that’s ALWAYS good news!!
My view is that they raise
That the market is higher on Friday. I don’t understand anything other than the DJIA.
Gold for me is a coin toss because I don’t pay any attention to it.
Poor effort P.
Give us your guess, just for fun. 🙂
PURVEZ! Market bottomed 14th, just like I thought. Traded it like shit though.
Hahaha geno, you’re an honest soul. I had just gotten off a plane after a long and tiresome journey so wasn’t in the mood to do anything. I too missed out on the UP bit. Just finally organised a decent internet connection and should be good to go. However since I am here to visit my mum and aunt I can’t spend as much time in front of the screen as I need to harvest my 50 points per day.
I’ll consider myself lucky if I get 150 for the week.
My ideal turning point on the DJIA would be 17850-17900. That would make a decent looking ‘flat’ from the mid Nov lows.
Thereafter I think we are done and we should be heading down in a BIG way towards the August lows.
No raise, I don’t do ES but SPX 2125, Gold 1084
3 predictions required:
—Fed action today (or lack of it) expressed to two decimal points if you think they raise.
—ES-mini futures closing price on Friday 18th December
—Gold futures closing price on Friday 18th December.
scott’s
25 basis point increase. dot plot indicates 100 by 1/1/17 .
ES Friday at 1943
Gold Friday at 1088
picked up aapl 110s puts 12/18 exp for 1.28 this morning. yes i’m bearish and we got our opporutnity for re-entry i was looking for that was posted earlier this week. also made money on my goldman sach’s trade.
bought some lotto uvxy 30 calls earlier this morning. glta.
Should be picking up NFLX calls.
Spookily, at precisely the same time as Yellen begins her presser, (7.30pm GMT 🙂 ) I will be standing up to do a seminar presentation to my local clients, the timing a pure coincidence.
My function will better as there will be nice food (including the always popular Cornish pasties) and liquid refreshments. None of that for Fed pressers I bet!
I will catch up much later on goings-on.
Good luck all.
.25 raise
ES 1973
gold 1075
WTI 35.10
It looks as we are heading into major top in January. Like in 1973, but this time the crash will be much worse and may take less time then during 73-74 bear.
I noticed Armstrong was correct on the rate rise, he thinks they have to keep raising to save pension funds. Don’t get that myself at all.
He is still banging the drum for a bond collapse and share mega-bubble imminently.
Wish he’d stop doing that, it always gives me pause for thought.
Hmmmm…got the rate rise wrong – let’s see on the rest….:)
J
Crash will not come until Nicolas posts.
Wow look at that sauce chef do the the flambé whoosh. Is that the curtain on fire?
monthly option expiration continues to be completely ramped just like selloffs in the 2 weeks prior. 12/18 ex dvd date. only outlier 8/21 – 8 /24
today’s clue was first move post fed report. flash down to spy 204.80. 1st move, almost always the wrong move and suckers bet
Good guessing if you guessed +0.25%.
Just home, but looks like it was a bit of a snooze for markets. Short end of the curve up, long end not so much. Not a recovery yield curve.
China A50 looking quite sickly with divergences, may look to build a short position by the end of the week.
IMHO
J
Market says ‘no rate rise.
http://screencast.com/t/iXgy6jZ9D
We have entered the twilight Zone now, keep an eye on SOMA and ONRRs:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20151216a1.htm
Negative rates cannot be allowed in America, game over.
Valley,
How is next 2 weeks, I think we touch 2100 and then revisit 1980 in next 2 weeks, what does PALS say
I can’t speak for Valley, but I have us bullish until 12/30 at least.
I am long spy calls that expire 12/24 205.5, will sell most of them if price reaches 208.50. 209.50 seems likely before Xmas. PALS is especially favorable until next Monday’s open, and favorable next week, especially the three days before the Full Moon.
Well that rate hike happened as expected and markets cheered it on as I expected it would. Back to long on all indices but have kept stakes small as I feel I have probably missed around 50% of the Santa rally in the last couple days.
Better safe than sorry though krish, I think many traders went flat into Fed day.
Good luck with the longs, I think danger lurks around the corner, before Santa arrives.
Japanese Yen: BTFD.
Wednesday, December 16, 2015
Look out below folks.
CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios Daily Charts Signal Significant Market Top At Hand
http://thekeystonespeculator.blogspot.com/
If 2051 is violated we are off to the races folks. Friday will be fun.
My guess of 1840ish ES is still alive, although hard to see gold getting to $1170.
I have predicted elsewhere and here that gold will see c. $950 before the bear ends, maybe this next week will be it?
Gold is a good investment….
Gold is a good investment….
Gold is a good investment….
Gonna keep telling myself that, until it becomes true…
I’m sure ~that’s~ the way successful investors do it…. *big sigh*
Soon, Crude producers will start unloading their vast Gold hoards in desperation to raise cash. When they do, Gold will “fall out of bed” to lows that aren’t thought possible to modern Gold Bulls.
For the more than a year that I have posted on this “site” I have consistently warned about being long Gold.
Don’t worry Barry, and don’t listen to Richard either, this is all part of the bottoming process. Gold is caught in the cross-fire between a *strong* dollar and liquidity issues as credit unwinds. Likely to be volatile for a few more months, but as economic issues and corporate profits fall out of bed, gold will come into its own.
Buy now, into the dip.
No worries, just whining a bit…
Gold just makes me shake my head….
JNUG was UP 13.6% yesterday…
It’s DOWN 15.6% today….
It’s “Crazy-town”…. hahaha
JNUG though, not really gold is it?
My gold just sat on its shelf in a vault yesterday, did bugger all as far as I know. Maybe some DUST fell on it?
GM….hopefully it was ‘fairy dust”. Do you get to look at it on the shelf? THAT would be cool even if it is by video.
I visit it occasionally p, and have photos sent, just to check it’s being fed and watered.
This week’s rally is just another sucker’s bet. amazing how often people keep chasing both directions. rally during options monthly expiration but keep running into overhead resistance. northman trader and his wife have NAILED the last 4 months charts http://northmantrader.com/technical-charts/
I will be looking to go long Gold at $497.00. (Ooohhhhh yeeaaa).
What’s that you say, you don’t think that Gold can fall as much as Crude? Why not?
http://peakoil.com/consumption/something-strange-is-taking-place-in-the-middle-of-the-atlantic-ocean
Come on, get real; if Crude prices can be cut in half from here then why can’t Gold prices also be cut in half from here?
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/what-20-usd-barrel-means-us-oil-industry.asp?partner=YahooSA
Maybe one of your yahoo finance links will be needed now Richard to complete your excellent insights into gold.
I’m happy to share this:
http://anotherfreegoldblog.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/opec-will-play-different-role-in-future.html
I’ll bet few knew this little nugget.
“Soon, Crude producers will start unloading their vast Gold hoards in desperation to raise cash.”
Richard, Crude oil producers have vast amounts of gold?? Is that on their balance sheets somewhere?
I’m not saying it’s not possible (they used to make a LOT of money, and I’d buy crazy shit too, with all that money…LOL), just can’t recall seeing it stated anywhere in any annual reports… Not that i read many nowadays, but….just sayin’….
Maybe crude producers are unloading their vast OIL hoards in desperation….
Maybe THAT’S what you’re thinking?
The Saudis keep it off-the-record Barry, but they were cut a deal in the early 80s: support the dollar and bide us some time, and we’ll ensure you keep getting a steady supply of physical gold (off-market). They must have tens of thousands of tonnes.
How was it done? Via the banks and the gold mines. And that’s all I can reveal here sorry. 😉
Then this:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/1999/html/pr990926.en.html
The rest is history, ongoing of course, the final piece of the jigsaw that needed finalising was bank resolution powers in the EZ, and that comes into force on 1st January 2016.
Away we go…..
Ahh,yes… I was thinking of only companies as producing, but yes, clearly countries produce oil, and get paid in a number of ways…including gold…
Sometimes I remind people I’m just a dumbass….
And I rang the bell again… hahaha
So :), Ru suggesting long gold last week in Dec 15?
Rates down:
soooo… we still feeling BULLISH? market is such a fing FRAUD
guess yesterday didn’t happen
spiral targets seem a little more realistic now don’t they?
this market is all about the algorithms, dark pools, trading bots, knowing where the stops are and the house stealing everyone’s money. trading bots feel no emotion, don’t care. simply steal cash from the players.
Check out https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt for his tweet on HFT robbers.
Hey All, been missing reading the comments here and I still haven’t read them, but I have been crazy busy. Only popping in to say to the bulls:
Easy Come, Easy Go!
The market still looks shakey to me. Despite some harsh losses for me this past six months, I am sticking to my energy longs and I have a lot of cash waiting for a downside bust. January looks like the next opportunity.
Waiting and watching for now.
JaFree, sorry to hear about your ‘draw downs’ in the last six months. It’s a trader’s hazard. I’d like to suggest shorter term targets and stops. On the DJIA (don’t know ‘sh!!t’ about energy) that has worked well for me. Usually if my stop is hit then it just continues down so now I know to ‘get out of the way’ until another compelling trade comes along. Learnt that the VERY HARD WAY though!!
SPX stops kicked in at 2052, just FYI
J
When do we see those big 3 waves down then?
Any EW chaps have a view please?
The break of the prior low is but SPX futures 10.5 points (south) away which will be the clanger of the bell to confirm the bearer of short bread gifts, the actual wave 3 of the onset of the impulsive bear has already been underway. Of course the fail to reach that marker will vindicate the seasonal expectation crowd, but only until their Primary 5th (underway) take concludes in failure.
Either way the monthly chart has yours sincerely written all over it….
http://barestbodkins.blogspot.co.za/
Thanks Peter_.
This is for Mr. Hampson:
The median return for stocks with market caps under $1 billion in 2015 is -49%.
Here we goooooo! Today should be very interesting. This could be the end of the QE experiment. QE didn’t work because it didn’t have a U and it was stupid.
The GREAT STOP HUNT … i know many of you are not fans of zerohedge, but I think this article encapsulates the biggest casino on earth, the stock market and why we have seen such volatility the last 4 months and why so many have been whipsawed. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-18/explaining-todays-massive-stop-loss-quad-witching-market-waterfall-why-2000-must-be-
Good article, Scott. Thanks.
Hi Valley, what do you do when the market does not turn arround do you hold on to your possition or sell it?
Have a good weekend
John.
I am in short term call options, so will take whatever happens. Then start again with next cycle.
Nicolas, if you’re still reading this, while you’re on vacation, just remember….
Barry this didn’t work with my better half. She wanted to know where her share of the Piracy Loot was? Now my bank balance is a LOT lower!!
Ah,yes….
There are two very different approaches to reasoning with a women….
Neither of them work…. 🙂
Haha to the comment.
Ugh to its conclusion!!
any believers in spiral or northman trader yet? I hope john still has is shorts while on vacation.
spiral target low was through 12/21. have to admit, while spy puts and apple puts worked out, i have to give a few sour grapes to uvxy. given the 85point spy drop in less than 36 hours, i ,made $1000 on my $2000 lotto gamble. can’t believe it didn’t rocket to 40+ like last friday:( at least i took coin home
Well I think the spiral can be useful some of the time, just like any other system – including my own ofc:)
Northy is great
“With the FED hiking its key benchmark rate one should expect interest rates to start rising across the yield curve. Liquidity conditions will tighten and the FED’s balance sheet is going to shrink as well. Hmmm, not so fast! The FED has two trillion problems still to solve, as its monetary policy framework is years behind other central banks’ settings, in particular the ECB. Hiking rates is not a mental exercise, it will involve some headaches for the New York FED.
The FED doesn’t really hike rates, it does announce a target for the FED funds rate, which is the rate high street banks charge each other for unsecured overnight loans. The central bank first injects liquidity into this market but then allows the game to be played between banks. The outcome of the game – the interest rate – is just the result of the interaction between those banks. It is not set by the central bank. This means that the FED announces a target rate, known as the FED funds rate, and then uses its magic to make sure the effective funds rate is near the announced rate. But, of course, the effective funds rate is not 0.25pc or 0.50pc just because the FED said it wants it to be at that level.”
Discuss….:)
https://www.rt.com/shows/boom-bust/326190-deflation-balance-paying-rate/
Jeger, re the Fed and short-term rates, we are in uncharted territory, hence the massive increase in the potential level of reverse repos.
I am interested to see what happens next!
This was an interesting read (free registration required though):
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/12/17/2148268/hungry-hungry-hungry-money-market-funds-about-to-get-fed/
http://dimartinobooth.com/
Also
Harry’s update
These so called “terrorists” try to strike when the markets are vulnerable to further falls.
Bit harsh to call the CBers ‘terrorists’ isn’t it?
Max Keiser calls them terrorists all the time. But he uses the term “terrorist” for bankers in general, not just CB’s. Our banking system is a system that takes from the poor and gives to the rich, so maybe the term “financial terrorism” is appropriate, no?
pimaC, you should have a read of my post ‘The Nexus’ for a more nuanced view of banks, govts, CBs and the voters. It’s more complicated that the view ‘evil bankers’.
GM, yes is nuanced. And complicated. And not obvious to most people what the banks are doing and why/how they can make so much money. They set it up that way deliberately, just so the masses would not understanding the fleecing they are undergoing. Banks have NO product and their only service is debt enslavement. And for that, we give them 17 percent of the GDP.
“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.” –Henry Ford
US & China working hand in glove to keep it all going?
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/china-move-wealth-fund-hq-n-y-signaling-increased-focus-n479906
All strengthens my belief you’ll see a strong dollar for a few more years.
2nd part of same comment:
https://t.co/O9IEfdesgi
Gold enters long on the weekly…
Good to see. My 2x long gold ETF is now in the black, with the miners around 2% in the red, breakeven overall, so a move up to 1180-1200 would be cool.
Where is everyone?
(I imagine purvez has been on the mulled wine by now).