Updated Charts

1. Geomagnetism – downtrend out to mid-Sept:

19aug12. Sunspots – up again currently but still no clear trend:

19aug23. Economic surprises – coincident data positive in USA and Europe, improving in China, disappointing in Japan and languishing in emerging markets:

19aug3

19aug4

19aug5

19aug6

19aug74. Leading indicators – weakening of late:

19aug8

Source: Conference Board

19aug9

Source: Dshort

5. Climate – July joint hottest 10th month on record, so not at mega-extreme, but still at levels sufficient to potentially disrupt agri.

6. Silver – this seems to be the obvious target to me, horizontal resistance and a re-test of the breakdown. If it can get there I will take profits on half my positions.

19aug11

7. Full moon on Wed and end of lunar negative period this coming weekend. My aim is to take half profits on Dow shorts within that period. I have no price target, just that time target. I expect equities will rise again to complete a multi-month topping process so don’t think this is the time to load up short. One more up-move, I suggest.

8. Treasury yields advanced again. Tough to call what the Fed will do at the mid-Sept FOMC, but a month’s developments to go until then.

To sum up, still looks like a topping process in equities. Commodities outperforming currently and USD weak – this looks promising for a late cyclical rally in commodities, whilst equities top out. If the solar max is still ahead at the end of 2013 that whole process would fit, with commodities topping out in early 2014. To further fit, China and emerging markets should improve whilst the developed economies weaken in terms of leading indicators. Let’s see.

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21 thoughts on “Updated Charts

  1. momentum top May
    brief correction June
    price top August
    breakdown August and target previous low ~1570
    that is my setup. May bounce from around full moon a couple days 🙂

  2. Go back 60 year & 45 year……sunspot
    Louis Hasbrouck ….eistien ..past,present and future.
    Retrograde and station with planet angle 0, 90, 180
    Apply past ,present and future.
    Past 60 year with sunspot……(Ephemeris)
    Present……..(Ephemeris)
    Future 60 year…….(Ephemeris)
    4th Dimesion

      1. Past: 1869 Sunspot High, Jupiter Retrograde, Aug 9, 1869 Uranus 90 Neptune
        Present: Sept 3, 1929 High, Jupiter Retrograde, Sept 14, 1929 , Ceres 0 Jupiter
        Future: Jupiter Retrograde, Sept 10, 1989 Jupiter 180 Saturn and
        Oct 01, 1989 Jupiter 180 Neptune

        W D Gann tunnel thru the Air…………..Planet Retrograde & Station.

        1929 Crash ….. 60 year Cycle

  3. sunspots are growing into the tidal peak around Sept 10
    However the general trend is weakening. The tidal cycle is about 118 days, and the general trend can be seen by a 118 day moving average (yellow below)
    The 118MA also shows the bigger swings in solar flux, caused by the major tidal peaks spaced by average 10 months

      1. major tidal peaks are spaced by 8 and 12 months, and looks like 8 months are a bit more frequent, making the average somewhat less than 10 months.
        So there we probably have the known 9 month cycle in markets… perhaps 🙂

  4. One lunar month is 29,5 days. I take it that gives the 118 (=4*29,5). Thus there should be 4 cycles within the 118 day. Every cycle has an up phase and a down phase, taking roughly 14/15 days. Could this be John’s lunar fortnight?

    I’ve noticed the shortest tidal swings take some 7 days, half of the fortnight.

    Are the assumptions correct?

    1. A lunar month isn’t quite a calendar month, so I am roughly-speaking when I say a ‘fortnight’ up into and around the new moon and a fornight up into and around the full moon. My models are based on the new moon and full moon dates.

  5. John,

    As per astrology til sep 6th its down days. When do you plan to take your short off completely. Are you planning to play the upswing or stay short.

    1. Hi Bill. Have no fixed plans, will play it subject to developments. May take off another quarter short before the week is out (when the lunar negative period ends) depending on market action.

  6. Well Rolo
    I t looks like “Tunnel thru the air”has rubbed off on you.
    Poor penmanship.
    I also dont understand your comments.What has the 60 year cycle got to do with 2013?
    bob

  7. Hi All,

    I’d just like to chime in that I am still expecting a low in Sept/Oct based on longer term 17.6 year cycle and shorter term 17.6 week cycle that I follow. So far so good, especially on FTSE. Dow didn’t pullback as much following May top and then made a new high, but I continue to anticipate an Autumn low (possibly following a short term bounce over next week or two).

    http://www.17yearstockmarketcycle.com/2013/05/blog-post.html

    Regards,

    Kerry

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