1. Geomagnetism – downtrend out to mid-Sept:
Source: Conference Board
5. Climate – July joint hottest 10th month on record, so not at mega-extreme, but still at levels sufficient to potentially disrupt agri.
6. Silver – this seems to be the obvious target to me, horizontal resistance and a re-test of the breakdown. If it can get there I will take profits on half my positions.
7. Full moon on Wed and end of lunar negative period this coming weekend. My aim is to take half profits on Dow shorts within that period. I have no price target, just that time target. I expect equities will rise again to complete a multi-month topping process so don’t think this is the time to load up short. One more up-move, I suggest.
8. Treasury yields advanced again. Tough to call what the Fed will do at the mid-Sept FOMC, but a month’s developments to go until then.
To sum up, still looks like a topping process in equities. Commodities outperforming currently and USD weak – this looks promising for a late cyclical rally in commodities, whilst equities top out. If the solar max is still ahead at the end of 2013 that whole process would fit, with commodities topping out in early 2014. To further fit, China and emerging markets should improve whilst the developed economies weaken in terms of leading indicators. Let’s see.