3 Exact Dates

As we wait for the ECB decision and market reaction, I see 3 exact dates being revealed that align with my ‘triple confluence peaks’ idea, i.e. we are seeing major market peaks form at the new moons closest to the geomagnetic seasonal highs (inverted) closest to the smoothed solar maximum.

The smoothed solar max is likely to have been around April 2014.

22janu14

The seasonal peaks (inverted geomagnetism) fall at the turn of the year and mid-year.

22janu1

The new moons closest to these seasonal peaks were 1 January 2014, 27 June 2014 and 22 December 2014, so it follows that we should see major speculation peaks at these dates in the year of the solar maximum, 2014.

Bullish percent to call/put, cyclicals to defensives, high yield to treasuries and small cap equities to bonds all peaked very close to the 1 January 2014 date.

22janu2Stocks:dollar, stocks:bonds, FTSE Eurostox and NYSE composite indices, NSYE breadth, volatility and junk:treasury bonds, oil, US dollar (inverted), leveraged loans and junk bonds all peaked very close to the 27 June 2014 date.

22janu7 22janu5

22janu3

The final date, 22 December, has tentatively topped out the remaining key indices and speculation measures, namely SP500, Dow and Wilshire 5000 (plus an associated bottom in gold) and a blow-off top in sentiment and allocations.

22janu4 22janu6If this ‘dumb’ model of the markets is correct then we should make no new highs from here but rather collapse to a March/April initial bear market bottom (first leg down).

If an anomaly is at hand and the solar max is still ahead or speculation somehow extends further in time, then the next logical peak would be mid-year 2015, likely June 16. However, I rate this possibility as negligible. Look again at the risk measures that changed course Jan 1 2014: they remain in downtrends ever since. Add to these the large range of assets and indicators that peaked June 27 and remain in downtrends ever since too. Then consider the change in market and cross-asset behaviour since the final date, Dec 22, together with that capitulation in sentiment and allocations. This has to be game over, in my opinion. However, if we consider it a game in which central banks can cheat and change the rules, then maybe, just maybe, natural forces can less freely flow through the markets. I don’t think this is likely as central bank members are solar subjects too. However, this is subject to confirmation in a critical real time test in 2014-2015. Market reaction over the next few days to the ECB announcement will be a key tell.

 

 

 

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216 thoughts on “3 Exact Dates

  1. Thank you! John. You have a very organized mind.
    With all the politics involved in the EU, I don’t think Draghi can make a big stimulus, which will likely disappoint the Markets – so consistent with your analysis of where the Markets will go next – path of lest resistance.

      1. Thanks John.

        Mae, I can’t say I disagree with your opening comment. German’s are predominantly opposed to further QE but they have indicated that they will meet halfway.
        I doubt halfway will appease the markets with because with what I have researched a large number of analysts are saying that €600 billion will not be enough to stimulate the European economy. Many are looking for at least €1 trillion.
        I don’t think, given Germany’s opposition that they are going to get anywhere near €1 trillion.
        That means the likelihood of a huge disappointment to markets and given the rise in recent weeks in the DAX this could get very interesting.

        Notice that the US markets have been a lot more cautious and if anything the DOW and SPX daily chart patterns have bearish flags. Then again bearish patterns the last two years have rarely amounted to much.

        A very important trading day todat that could set the intermediate trend.

        Cheers

  2. IMHO I’m staying away from this toxic toy, until I hear the drag queen himself speak. Even then I will wait till after the weekend.

    Long or short their will be pain, they desperately need you money.

  3. I feel CB’s and politicians keep ignoring, or more likely hiding, WHY global economies are seeking to slow down, and WHY stimulus is compounding the problem. We, as a species, are intentionally trying to simplify our lives, and cut down on wasting dwindling natural resources. If this trend was just allowed to continue, everyone would benefit down the road. Instead, bizarre market distortions are created where the greed of gamblers are bankrupting responsible savers.

    1. eh? Where’s the dreaded inflation in Germany? How long can the exclaim “Weimar!” before the rest of the world just walks away and shakes their heads?

  4. John’s comment :

    “I don’t think this is likely as central bank members are solar subjects too. However, this is subject to confirmation in a critical real time test in 2014-2015.”

    Hahahaha I always suspected they were from a distant galaxy!! 🙂

  5. well we have had the news and the initial rise. Would expect markets to start turning down later today or tomorrow. Personally I doubt QE will help the eurozone much at all.

    1. Won’t help one iota. Look at Japan over a decade later. Zero effect and debt to GDP has exploded.
      Even a 3 year old learns pretty quickly that if something doesn’t work stop trying.

      1. Yeah but that’s 3 year olds for ya. These ‘other galaxy’ people don’t understand childish logic. At least not the earthly kind. 🙂

  6. John,

    As per your logic extremes have developed and it needs to reverse, nowhere does it answer why it should reverse. Whats wrong with CB’s slowly and constantly buying and keeping market afloat. Where is the Reason for crash, none of what you point says we will/need to crash.

    Bill

  7. Lunar Chord 7D:

    Depth of tide: tide is falling, bearish into end month
    Degree of Illumination: new moon bullish, a few more days
    Declination: Moon rising to equator this weekend (big up moves!)
    Distance: passed perigee, bearish next four days
    De Planets: mercury entered retrograde, more vol, mostly bullish
    Daily Seasonals: bearish to Friday, up next week.
    Direction price short term: upward momentum

    Summary:
    Price is probably going to continue up thru Tuesday. Next week is seasonally strong, but moon factors mostly negative. Will trade with trend till next Thursday. Next Friday moon is in Gemini (far North), if big sell off to occur may be then as Gemini moons tend to have exaggerated price moves. Or big sell off could be next Thursday to coincide with lowest tide day.

  8. unless I am reading the ECB notes wrong the ECB balance sheet will only expand by 20% of the 1.1tr or E220b which is paltry and probably worth 0.50% in ES as we have seen today. Copper and Oil both trading lower on the announcement which is documenting global deflationary weakness which the ECB won’t arrest. For the remaining 80% or E880b the ECB is asking bankrupt member countries (except for Neth, Ger, Aus, Fin who openly oppose QE) to buy in their own bonds on their own account (No bail out by big brother ECB if credit spreads blow out as for example in the event that Greece leaves the Eurozone). Lastly, they did not bother to include Greece – the most bankrupt among the bankrupt which proves the lightness of the above package. I believe the Greek vote will quickly paint over today’s non event by next week.

    1. Pegasus, you literally took the words out of my mouth RE crude and copper. Crude plummeted after the announcement, natural gas also falling substantially along with base metals.

    2. Pegasus, have you thought this through:

      ‘(No bail out by big brother ECB if credit spreads blow out as for example in the event that Greece leaves the Eurozone).’

      The ECB will be on the hook for the Euros issued, its a shared currency.
      The pertinent question should be ‘how will the national CBs repay the ECB when sovereign debts go bad?
      The eloquent answer is with gold reserves. IMO.
      I can see no other way, but interested in other opinions.

  9. Bears should attack again at SPX 2065 but my concern is that DAX, CAC and FTSE clearly have not topped yet. For sure they can make top on tomorrow or on Monday but let’s wait for that final spike.
    I think patience is required until December lows are taken in SPX and $/¥.

    I am also still under impression that Gold should correct from these levels. Today may be just retest of yesterday’s high and we may correct to 1250 or so.

  10. Most of the late 2014 rally was short squeezing on CB statements. Trying to imagine what news could squeeze shorts from here. Another US QE announcement is the only thing I can think of, but I think this is unlikely.

    1. It’s not turned down as I expected so maybe the rally will continue until tomorrow and the falls start next week. If not we may be looking at fresh all time highs across all indices!

    2. Cut my shorts to minimal positions. Waiting for a clear signal now to reenter. No idea how high this blast will go but short term I think the Bulls are in full control the way dow has just been one way this session.

  11. As mentioned this morning the market is known
    as the great humiliator for a reason.

    Approx 3% from fresh new ATH’s.

  12. This is going to be my last post. It’s not like anyone will miss me.

    There’s plenty of long-term opportunities in the commodities sector if you understand what to buy. Shorting opportunities in broad indexes will come eventually, just not now or this year.

    Mario has exceeded the expectation on many levels. Do expect this rally to continue for at least many months. You can either let this rally overwhelms you or you can ride the wave.

    That’s all. Be back next year to check on what John is up to. Until then, good luck to everyone.

    Good luck to all and happy trading.

    1. Good luck Gianna. All the best to your trading. As you know, I am in agreement with you. Long the Dollar and now it’s really starting to break away from the majors. This will feed into stocks this year.

  13. I guess it was not sell the news as I expected. Mario delivered although the details are kind of fussy on purpose. Hard to see this Pavlovian reaction could last though. QE by ECB raises USD/EUR which lower US corporate profits. Then again, the market is not rational anymore so why should this fundamental matter more than the other fundamentals.

  14. Based upon todays market action and tomorrows beginning of lunar equatorial crossing south to north, most likely Monday will be a high and balance of next week drift sideways to lower. Equatorial crossing south to north have a high percentage (grt. 50%) of price spikes to the upside. I am fully invested.

  15. Well, a risk on day unfolded. Euro Stoxx and CAC flirting with new highs, but set against the weakening Euro. The key is whether other global indices and the indicators shown above can break back upwards too, on digestion of the news. See below, no change to the big pic unless that occurs.

    1. Euro yen confirmed double top target 118. Bearish for $/Y which looks to follow through this AM. Would wait for Greece to see full impact for EU from this week.

  16. I closed that small emotional short, I should have listened to myself when I said I’m leaving shorting this toxic toy alone till next week.

    My luck everything will drop now 🙂

  17. At least you kept the position size small.
    I have read a number of comments on other sites
    of people effectively blowing up their accounts yesterday,
    convinced of a sell the news event.

    1. I’ll be the first to admit I took a hit yesterday turned a positive week into a negative week – but blowing up one’s account??
      On a 1-2% move?? Yikes….
      Seriously, that’s just bad trading…. Really bad trading… *shaking head here*

  18. Euro Yen break of 2012 uptrend cannot be overemphasized. The ES had 7 down months since Euro/Yen turned up. The pair was in a downtrend from 2008 to 2012 with severe corrections along the way as some recall. Will likely return to that type of market now that the FX flows indicate the green light.

    1. AUD/Yen breaking from massive triangle since 2008 – could be the real thing here. Pair led the 2008 commodity and stocks waterfalls. Worth watching here.

  19. As most might guess, my trading system flipped last night, from holding 100% short, to cover and go 50% long by the close today, basis the S&P….

    I, on the other hand, being the genius that I am – hahahha – believed that the rally yesterday moved us to an area of a “lower-risk, higher-reward” trading opportunity…
    Thank you for that, Mario…. You “Da Man….” 🙂
    So I added to shorts, by adding TVIX…
    151% net short now….

    It seems odd, but HY is right now STILL right around the same price as at the October lows, and that’s really got my attention…
    As well, seeing a little turn-up in Money-Flow, but big-picture there are lower highs, lower lows still in place… And a couple of faster oscillators (that are part of my trading system) are even back in the “Sell” area after Thursday’s rally…
    And that’s not to say there aren’t quite a few long signals here too, but overall, very difficult for me to want to be “Long” this market here…

    Anyway, I’m again in conflict with my own system, which is neither a good nor a relaxing place to be…. Regardless, one way or the other, this condition will not last too long…
    Either the market, or I, very soon, are going to go “Uncle, Uncle, I give”…. lol

    1. Barry, the ability to ‘intelligently’ interpret price points from any system, even one that you designed yourself is a sign of great independent thought. All the more power to you.

      1. Thanks for the kind words….
        Intelligence, or idiocy, one of those for sure… 😉

        And the longer the market just sits here this morning, doing nothing, the more I think this isn’t a top too, so there’s that, as well…. :-/

        Regardless, trying to add some analysis to being a system trader, but others would say that it’s merely being an undisciplined system trader, and they’d have a point, too…
        As I’ve mentioned before, sometimes it works, sometimes not-so-much, but we all have a LOT of information at our disposal, so seems foolish to not at least look at it… Separating the wheat from the chaff is vital though, so there’s a developed skill there, too…
        Thanks again…

    2. Barry, I am not sure about your trading system but I assume it is based upon technical analysis only and does not consider the fringe techniques such as tides, moon phases, etc.. I got to tell you, you may be missing out. For example, John has an article called the lunar edge in which data is presented that 2/3 or more of market gains across all market occur during the lunar edge time. This month is one example, new moon two days ago market rising.

      There are others but the Lunar Edge is the most easily understood and John has an excellent article explaining the data. Using my Lunar Chord 7D and timing entry and exit based upon price I have entered at lows and exited at highs several times in the last 2 months.

      That being said, I have a great interest in your system and how it is constructed and how predictive it is. Of course, I might also ask what the secret sauce is in a Big Mac, or the ingredient list for Colonel Saunder’s Fried Chicken. Wish me luck.

  20. Roos, don’t assume for one moment I am able to predict moves in the market. I watched the smartmoney indicator on DAX, assuming something would go terribly wrong. Look at the DAX. It did exactly the opposite. A buy stampede. All the indices in europe: up up up. Yes, investors are very pleased the EU and euro are kaputt, although it may take a while for them to realise.

    January 26 would be a nice day to have a high.
    Further: february 13 on the DAX is a date I will watch with interest. The dates for the Dow are feb 10 or 11. Remember these are just dates, when a turn is more likely. As long as we do not close beneath significant levels, there is no reason to assume this market will go down. Take a Look at the Nasdaq 100: the last 3 bottoms, all in the same area. These have to be taken out, preferable by a weekly close. then it makes sense to short.

  21. Looks like a good day to trade LONG! Low tide is at 338PM in NYC and price has a habit of rising into that. Also moon is crossing equator imminently, price is in uptrend last few days and today would be the crown of a fantastic week! Gee, I am starting to sound like our favorite bull.

  22. As expected, some selling appeared at SPX 2065 which is obvious resistance.
    And indeed, the pattern since Jan 6th looks like nice flat wave so bears still may crash this market much lower.

    My concern for the bears is that Europe does not look like finished business but rather is in the middle of final crescendo. Potential move beyond 2070 in SPX means new ATH and bull continuing into March. 2200 may come into play in that scenario.

    We will see on Monday if we turn lower in more decisive way or just cross 2065 and march higher.
    Gold looks like it is forming some kind of top so corrective drop in gold may coincide with final bull run in stocks.

    If Euro is really in big H&S pattern then we can see 0.80 this year. Indeed we see acceleration of the move down after neckline at 1.20 was broken,

  23. Beta, what does your magic moon and rumbling tides tell you about the period between march 20- april 7? If a serious downmove would start on the DAX, that would be a nice window.

    1. Mar 19 perigee market tops (4 trade days weakness after). Mar 20 new moon (strength 4 trade days after). Mar 20 lunar S to N equatorial stairway to heaven (lasts three days). Mar 20 is high tide date for the month which makes a nice topping day. All lunar stuff is countered by US market tends to rally Mar 25 to April 2.

      April is the one month of the year that is not subject in US to lunar. Dominated by April 15 tax day. Short market April 2 and go long April 15 to May 2. This is one of the surest bets of the entire year. Stay tuned, I will be posting a 7 Dimensional Lunar Chord daily from now until Mar 20.

  24. Hi Beta;
    I’ve mentioned it before – months ago, I believe, but basically it’s a melding of various oscillators, moving averages (although a few are not only JUST on price alone), and HY indicators…. Roughly a third, a third, and a third…
    Roughly…

    Usually I get my oscillators hitting first, then the HY indicators, then the MA’s, but not always… But when roughly 2/3rds are going in one direction, the system gives a signal in that direction…
    Last night it was the HY that finally tripped higher, and it has been on the verge of that for several days, so again, no surprise it finally triggered….

    It has its share of good runs, but the last 6-7 weeks moves have been so fast, and then retrace just as quickly, it’s being whipsawed like crazy…
    That’s why I’ve been stepping in like I have the last few trades…
    I’m not the first to say it, but this is ~not~ a normal market right now – good or bad – and my system is clearly not keeping up…

    Regardless, system signals go in 50% initially, ,and then one of three ways will get you to 100%:
    S&P500 trades 2.5% from initial position, +/- either way. Add at that point…
    Or the system itself will back off from a buy (or sell) signal, and then give another confirmed buy (or sell) signal… Add at that point…

    That’s it in a big picture nutshell…
    I also look at about 150 charts every night, and I appreciate that most don’t care, but going through both of those is the only way I can kinda keep my head straight with regards to what technicals are really telling me regarding market positions…

    And in answer to your question, it’s not predictive at all… It’s mostly a trend-following system… It just likes trends to last longer than 4-5 days… :-O

    And I don’t look at Tides or Seasonals, or Moons or any of that stuff….
    Honestly, every time somebody makes a prediction with that, and it doesn’t work out, there’s always a reason they “overlooked” Mars went out of sync with Jupiter, or the tides in one spot were out of sync with the moons on the other”, or some such other stuff nobody’s ever heard of…
    There’s always a reason it didn’t pan out, but “now” they know what happened and they have it all figured out going forward…
    If it works for you, more power to you…. I just can’t find a use for it…
    GL

    1. Who designed that system, for what market, what time frame, was it back tested and forward tested if so with what results? Oscillators and MAs are lagging indocators which would work only in fast trendy markets : in current environment such system is likely to be chopped up if you trade daily indices.

      1. Despe: MAs are lagging indocators which would work only in fast trendy markets : in current environment such system is likely to be chopped up if you trade daily indices.
        ——————————————————————-
        I think that’s what I just said……but thanks!
        Trends that last 4-5 days before being completely erased are NOT it’s forte’….

        I designed my system, to trade stock index ETFs, using end-of-day data…
        Trade time-frame is anywhere from 2 days to 2 months, but historically have about 1-2 change-of-signals per month, plus the additional 50% trades as well…

        Again, as mentioned before, it’s something I use as a guidepost to keep me on (or at least make me aware of – every day) the right side of the trend…
        I built it in 2011, using charts/data starting from Jan/2007….

        It’s covered a LOT of different market environments, but at the end-of-the-day, it’s a trend-following system and it’s going to have whipsaws in certain market environments…
        In my book, this would certainly be one of those environments……which is why I’m treating it as a “guideline” right now, and not an absolute “must take trade” trading system….

      2. Well, it’s not that I want to give advice, but personally I would look for trendy markets to use such system, i.e. some carefully selected stocks. Or I would use filters to avoid ranging markets but in that case I would miss the best entries : those leading to breakouts. Or I’d use it at weekly charts : for example how much money one could have made trading 20ema/90sma crossover over the past few years in weekly gold.
        There is a lot a man can do to a system, including throwing it out to find a better one. My first system I created years ago I had to discard the very next day, because I would need to be online every 60 minutes all day to implement it 🙂

        1. Fair points…
          Just give a shout-out when this chop is going to end and we’re about to be in a trendy market, and we’re golden… 😉

    2. Thanks, Barry. I am a three legged stool person:
      1. Technicals (price is king)
      2. Seasonals (bread and circuses market does better around holidays, end of mo)
      3. Astrolunarsolar (market performs better around new moon, from solar min to
      solar max, etc.)
      Relying on any one the stools alone requires a lot more work due to balance. Relying on all three in the improper way not good cause stool falls over. Figuring out how to balance all three in a dynamic and adaptive way is the unending journey, for me at least.

  25. I have spent 6 days and six nights with Pinnacle (PNW)
    http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=PNW
    Now it’s time to move on, so since the open I am flirting with GD, which is breaking up from a deep ABC and already shows me a profit. Not saying this will be a winner, But it may be.
    http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GD
    Pinncle trade was my own reversal candle pattern called FMC (R)
    While GD is a break out from a corrective formation. No indicators, no fundamentals, no theories, just simple setups. I still don’t know what Pinnacle is about.
    Leukadia, Zebra, SM Energy, nice names and fun to take money from those who probably know everything about the companies, including CEO’s.

  26. John,

    DAX shows that if there is money printing, stock indices go up. The real value might not go up, but the nominal value does. If they print 10x the money base, I am sure the market will rally despite whatever bearish views. Everyone will just add one zero at the end of every transaction — whether wage, prices, etc.

    The problem is that traders make or lose from the nominal value. Your chart shows that NYSE margin debt is a factor, and yet debt can be resolved by printing money. No deleveraging is required if debt is constant and everything is worth on paper 10x in notional.

    Any suggestions?

    1. This is the key issue. Are central banks offsetting demograhics and debt to a meaningful degree and their intervention altering the historic ‘rules’ of the markets? Remove their actions from the equation and there are so many ‘normal’ topping signals that I think at best they are stretching out a topping process, but a topping process nonetheless. But the longer response to the Eurozone QE is going to be a key tell. Outside of the Eurozone Friday’s down was a key repel of Thursday’s up. So let’s see next week. Meanwhile, gold looks to have bottomed, and given the currency dilution battles, why ought not gold be the chief recipient of newly created money? At some point I think we see a shift in mentality to this effect. QE has been shown to be fairly impotent in the economy. US leading indicators are negative, dollar rising continues to be bad for US earnings, US stocks still look ripe to fall, and if the US goes down the rest of the world ought to align. Just some thoughts.

      1. It would be insane for the global economy of course, but after what happened to CHF, I wonder if the selfishness of a few will destroy the well-being of the many. (The poor have wealth in checking accounts taken away, while the rich can afford stocks which rise nominally. Businesses cannot might right decisions with artificial rates, and artificial uncertainty as to when QE will break.)

        My model showed 3/2014 should have been the peak in both the market and SSN. When 7/2014 came, my model said that it was a higher “second chance”, which has happened before. This followed the 2000 analog quite well.

        Now it shows that 9/2014 should have been the peak, and we are in a new higher “second chance”. I have never seen this before. Both 3/2014 and 9/2014 are still flagged as peaks. The only thing that changed was the new ECB and JCB QE.

        The only analog you mentioned was the 1937 crash with near zero rates. But according to your graphs, even then, rates rose to 60bps before the crash. Currently we are around 15-25bps…I fear that means we still can go higher. 35bps sound little but if you look at the Libor graph, it is still a while away if we continue the current drift and the dovish Fed that is pushing the rate rising further out.

        I am not saying that a crash can’t come now — after all, my model is still flagging this as a new second chance. Moreover, perhaps the bulk of the QE announcements are over. And perhaps Libor doesn’t matter (although it seems to be what NYSE margin rates might be based on). Junk bonds are still near lows.

        But the insanity of the situation and the absence of more analogs is now considerably moderating my confidence to take “max-short” positions.

  27. Despe:
    As to returns, these would ONLY be applicable if you took every trade, as given, when given… I don’t trade this exactly as I should, but as I stated earlier, watching the system every day helps keep ~me~ on the right track….
    Sometimes I actually trade better…. Other times….no… :-/

    And can’t be more clear here: I built this SPX trading system FOR me, and me only…. If you’re watching/following me for anything other than amusement and waiting to see when I blow up – hahaha – you are doing so at your own risk…
    That said:

    Returns S&P-500 SPX System 3X ETF
    2011 2.1% 50.7% 142.3%
    2012 16.0% 16.0% 47.6%
    2013 32.4% 32.4% 98.2%
    2014 11.4% 16.0% 45.6%
    2015 -0.1% -2.8% -9.4%

    Hopefully, the formatting will come out the way I entered it…

    Regardless, formatting or not, I am clearly NOT “tearing it up” in 2015… Booooooo…..

    Also, while I’m thinking about it, someone long ago asked me about time decay on 3X ETFs… As you can see, there ~is~ an effect, but as far as I trade, it’s usually not that big of a deal, and at the end of the day, a 3X ETF that actually only returns a…..say 2.8X return…..is good enough for me… 😉

    Good trading!

    1. Don’t worry, I would follow anybody’s advice only if it’s in line with my own rules or set ups. I never used leveraged ETF’s, generally I try not to use ETF’s, only if I have no other choice. It’s looks like you have an OK system so now it’s up to you to use it properly or modify it if you choose. Many traders fail becasue they cannot follow their system. They say it’s lack of discipline, but in reality many systems are difficult to follow : if you have too vague exit policy, or too imprecise take profit rules, you will be at the mercy of hesitation, fear and hope. Rules must be simple and clear : while in a trade, you don’t analyse the market wondering if you should exit or not, you just follow idly your predetermined plan. Every loss will affect you emotionally so if your system involves 5 small losers in a row and one big winner that offsets even 10 small losses, although it’s a profitable system, too many ‘punches’ taken will discourage you so that you will hesitate and miss the big one. System must work in practice, so the simpler the better.
      Trading is a wonderful job but one must preserve his energy, and when you start to win consistenlty, it’s the beginning of the journey : you still must read the tape, still improve your system, deal with drawdowns, be able to increase your stake. Good trading!

  28. And, I see the formatting did not come out right… :-/
    Supposed to be a few spaces in between the numbers, making 4 distinct columns, but oh well….

  29. Made 1 % on my long. Now in cash. Lunar Chord is bearish next week, except for seasonals and Mercury. Going to play it slow and careful unless there is a gap up or gap down.

    Low tide alert: Next Thursday is low tide for month and last few months this has acted as a low. If this plays out market will then rise big on Friday.

  30. Thanks Beta.
    I am not able to find the lows tide of the month, after visiting several sites. The tides, they worked great in 2011, better than any other timing tools for the indices in Europe. As for today, witch was a big CIT it is encouraging action for the bears. As money flees Europe, into the dollar, a lot of companies that report will lower their earnings guidance. Also the financials are not acting great, also a sign that all is not well. Except for the bears of course.

    1. http://tides.mobilegeographics.com/calendar/year/752.html?y=2014&m=9&d=21

      Substitute 2015 in script to find tides for 2015, 2008 for 2008, etc..
      Tides are only one of several (moon phases, declination, distance) that I use tho’ they seem useful because so intuitive and data readily available and for day trading high tides mark tops and low tides usually have a 2 hr price ramp up before.

      I trade only the SP500 because right now I am trying to iron out a system that works consistently, but I wager that once the system is perfected will work on all normally behaving markets. Obviously, there will be markets that are for a month or two or longer will go into a gyration that is not normal. And this system does not work for stocks with inverse relationship to SP500 like the gold sector.

      1. Have you investigated T Theory and/or Delta Theory? T Theory is 95% accurate at calling tops, and Delta has turning points which are not always precise with regard to dates but offers the turning points for practically every major price series which is generally tradeable, and offers these point calculations, on software, far into the future.

        1. My friend who is a former market maker on the Pacific Stock Exchange (which got merged), told me about T Theory and Delta theory. I am trying to develop my own system of market timing based upon seasonals (bread and circus) which are excellent and reoccur year after year; tidal action which mirrors itself in human emotion and market emotion; moon position (distance, declination, degree of illumination); and planet influences. Half my interest in doing this is to learn about astronomy, and the other half is market interest. Do you live anywhere close to San Francisco? I belong to several stock investment groups there. My friend is only an options guy and is not so much interested in market direction cause he makes money using statistical mostly.

    2. Keep up your research, especially into what works on SP500 at this time. When Europe out performs and takes the baton of market leadership these techniques will work very nicely there as well.

  31. Thanks again. Will look into it. I wish tides, or gravity for that matter, would be the ultimate indicator. I’m impressed how you blended some of these aspects to get a better perspective on the behaviour of markets.

    Roos,
    I don’t know which markets you trade.
    The Dax has the most clear pattern, as to where we are in the cycle.

    The december 12, 2007 high= is the 19 september 2014 high.
    March 17, 2008, bottom = the higher bottom december 16, 2014.
    The next high & top in 2008, may 19= by my estimates feb 17/19, 2015. Another cycles comes in a few days earlier.
    None of them have to be the exact date or a top. After may 19 we chopped around quite a bit before the indices went south. A turn though would therefore be likely. Let the price decide. I use these possible CIT’s only to be on guard and these wild swings don’t make it easier when timing is involved.

    What I do know, based on history, is that during april/may a crisis may come to the surface. Maybe it will have to do with the euro, it may also be militairy. The crisis that erupts in the september/ october timefrime is definitely militairy with the US getting involved.

    1. Peter, I think I have found the SP500 ultimate indicator which is so simple but is highly predictive. It is as follows:
      Break up each month into separate weeks. Weeks are the key as Sat/Sun acts as a buffer and reset for market energy.

      Beginning Three Weeks:

      Week one(may be partial week, eg if the month begins on Thurs): always long
      Week two: short or cash first three trade days, long 4 and 5th.
      Week three: long entire week

      Ending Two Weeks:

      Second to last trading Week, short or cash all week
      Last Trading week (may be partial, eg if month ends on Tuesday): always long

      This is purely seasonal. There are some enhancements. April SP500 is down until tax day, and then up until May 2. A few others that can be discovered but minor.

      Modifier: if seasonally strong weak ends week ends lower, stay in until first trade day of following weak, and if seasonally weak week ends higher, stay out of first trade day of following weak as seasonality tends to snap back to norm.

      Additional improvement: always have a cash or short position on the following days: full moons, day of monthly low tide day of and day before, day of monthly apogee, day of far north declination and day after, three days after north to south equatorial crossing. Throw kitchen sink at it, if you find a pattern that is persistently bullish or bearish you can add it. For example, you don’t lose much by not being in the market on full moons as years of data combing you won’t find more than a hand full of days where market rose a lot on full moon, but will find many days of full moon when market was down.

      Hope this helps and if you google “apogee calculator”, “declination calendar” you can find sites that have the data mentioned.

      The problem with most Monday to Friday statistical analysis is that they don’t factor in weekly position. The problem with most day of month analysis is they do them based upon the monthly trading day and not it’s weekly position.

  32. The scenario I painted last weekend is playing out nicely. Recap:

    1) Gravitational trends are down on every level
    2) An inversion counteracting this trend pushed the top into last week (44 days +/- 2).
    3) Europe and Wallstreet show different patterns. Wallstreet made the high at the end of 2014, but Europe kept pushing through. This is typical for inversions where different markets react differently. Where Wallstreet tends to obey the gravitational main trend (down), Europe reacts to the inversion.

    The down move will accelerate when Europe finishes w5. The S&P features selling on strength, indicating smart money is unloading while dumb money is holding the bag. Very bearish.

    This intermarket deviation has now lasted for 3 weeks. I believe we are setting the high for 2015. I see some tidal force up into monday, but after that everything points down. Europe is extremely overbought, possibly by shortsqueezing

    Wallstreet is ready for a third wave down; be ready.

    First halt is the earth/mercury conjunction on jan 30; always a low. or a few days later at the full moon (feb 3). Then some retrace into feb 10/11.

    Main trend down into may 9th.

    This is what I posted last week. I can see nothing to change this.

    Cheers,

    André

    1. Thanks Andre’, will look into the earth/mercury conjunction low pattern. When you say grav trends are down are there any data series that can be obtained to track grav. For example, does it manifest itself with tidal data. Eg, if grav is down does that mean tides will have a reaction, and conversely when grav starts to rise again will tides react counter opposite. Much to learn, and by learning comes earning.

      1. Beta,

        Gravity is the reason we see tides. But tides reflect many things. So in general gravity up (stronger pull) gives higher high-tides (at the location where earth is facing the moon) and lower low tides (at the location that is opposite the moon).

        So the spinning of earth and the sloshing around of large volumes of water also affect the tides.

        That I why I created a theoretical calculation of gravity purely from the movements of the moon and the sun-moon angle. Comparing this indicator with tides I see strange things.

        Long term the apo/peri table gives the best trends by taking (apo+peri)/2. Very long long time (19 year and beyond) perigee gives better cycles than apogee.

        Short term (multi day) apo peri is useless. That’s where my gravity indicator fits in.

        Comparing my gravity indicator with tides I see strange things. That’s why combining them is best.

        Tides should be used for very short cycles and timing; long term trends on tides are unreliable in my humble opinion.

        Cheers,

        André

        1. Fun facts about lunar distance. Maori fisherman never fish on perigee cause fish go into deep water to avoid increase energy close to shores. I have observed markets have a loose (grt 50 percent) tendency to rise from apogee to perigee and fall from perigee to apogee. More specifically: perigee marks tops, whereupon market falls a few days and then moves slightly higher to day before apogee, sell off occurs until 3 days after apogee. Since this is a frequent pattern worth considering in model. Maori also plant their fields on apogee cause lack of energy has beneficial effect on seeds.

    2. I highly recommend Jeffery Young’s Public Chart List on Stockcharts.com. He uses T Theory (invented and perfected by the late Terry Laundry) to accurately predict tops. Note that Simple T’s drawn in the S&P predict a top on February 2, and the NDX T predicts a top on February 5. It’s also possible for the market to sell off after these dates, then rally to a new high. Failure to do so virtually guarantees a selloff.
      Also, Raymond Merriman has one overriding piece of advice for traders during a Mercury retrograde period (1/21/15 thru 2/11/15): “Close positions too soon!” Market moves under Mercury retrogrades tend to last a week or less, and then reverse. February 6 is the temporal midpoint of the departing Jupiter-Uranus trine
      which is usually a top, and, by sheer coincidence, February 6 is also Hans Hannula’s Overflight, which is usually a top.

      Nick V.

      1. Nick, refined astro market analysis is much appreciated. I subscribe to Hans Hannula (or Dr. Al Larson) Moontides services and am trying to learn his techniques. I am not sure what Merriman is saying with “close positions too soon”, it that saying stay the course or try to catch week swings or stay out of it all together. By the way, what instruments are you interested in trading, futures by any chance? Dr. Al trades only the e mini SP500.

    1. Whew! I was born close to solar minimum. However, for what it is worth a relative of mine was born close to solar max in 1894 and lived to be 95 years old. I have noticed that people born during or near solar maximum seem more hyper than others. The body electric. Hummingbird don’t live as long as ravens. So maybe more hyper people wear out faster than their more slow paced cousins?

  33. John, as much as I have enjoyed your analysis over the months I feel some bullish developments are largly ignored in your analysis. Here are some recent examples

    – A bullish breakout from a large inverse head and shoulders in DAX

    – The fact that an open ended programme by the ECB similar to QE3 is due to be lauched.

    – SPX is still trading within a rising channel. Higher highs, higher lows. No bearish cross on monthly MACD.

    – Earnings (excluding energy) are actually normal and nothing like those preceeding bear markets.

    In addition, the bearish analysis side

    – Many analogs have been suggested – 1929, 1937, 1987, 2000, 2007. Does not appear to show conviction on a price pattern.

    – Charts are cross asset to show divergences rather than single asset

    – Each and every post is calling for the top. Back mid last year your analysis pointed to worst case end of Dec 2014. $NYAD put in a new ATH last week. Doesnt look like the top is in.

    This post is not intended to be confrontational but rather ask you to consider both bullish and bearish devlopments.

    FWIW, I thought the top might be this march but with QE on the way still 2016 we might be some way off.

    1. No-one can be truly objective, so if you consider me too bearish biased then I accept. But my approach has always been to draw together as many angles as possible to produce my case bullish or bearish. So many topping indicators since Jan 2014, it is what it is, and therefore I have been bearish in the 12 months since. Many angles pointing to real top end of June 2014, supporting that stance.

      I will become more balanced if all indices and indicators go break upwards again here and make redundant my dates as listed above. But as things stand the case is much supportive of the real top being behind us. So let’s see how the markets act now on digestion of the ECB QE.

  34. Duncan,

    we are at a pivotal point.

    If equities continue to build on last week’s gains
    US markets will break through to new ATH’s.
    Those new highs would also be formed in the context
    of a rapidly rising $.

    Either this is repelled now, or
    we are days away from new higher highs.

  35. After the roadmap for 2015 (last week) and the next few months with inversion issues (this morning and last weekend) all that is left are the details for next week.

    On Monday I have a high in my tides, a high tide inversion and a heliocentric Mercury square Uranus.

    On Tuesday my gravity indicator gives the high at – as expected – first quarter. Tuesday I have also a solunar CIT and geocentric Mercury sextiles Uranus.

    On Wednesday I see a low tide inversion and hc Mercury trine Saturn

    On Thursday we have hc Mercury trine Venus and Mars

    On Friday the earth/sun conjunction with Mercury and gc Venus square Saturn.

    On Monday/Tuesday I have a short tidal inversion period (other than mentioned above) and the tidal pivot period extends to Tuesday (high tide extreme).

    Numerology gives a Mars/Mars day on Tuesday and a Venus/Mars day on Friday.

    Combined this gives my most likely scenario :

    1) The most significant turn (a high) should be Tuesday. On Monday we will see an intraday inversion meaning a high and a low. This low should lead to the high on Tuesday.
    2) The next significant turn is Friday with the conjunction and the low tide inversion.

    The aspects on Wednesday and Thursday indicate intraday volatility but not a CIT. So Friday brings the low for this week. I expect this to be a w3 low with the w5 low around the full moon on feb 3.

    Wednesday the fed meeting. I expect them to talk down the dollar as an expensive dollar hurts the economy. Simply stating a rise in interest rates not this year should do it. This should bring the volatility I expect.

    Hope this helps. Anyway, it is all i have 😉

    Cheers,

    André

    1. Andre, you say the 19 year peak is now and base this on 2052 and counting backwards. With respect I don’t agree that it should done this way.
      Surely you should go back 19 a couple of times from now and see if your theory works. It doesn’t.
      If it doesn’t work historically I don’t know why you rely to work now.
      I think the peaks in the 19 year cycle are the wrong timing to use and do not correlate to peaks in share prices. It is more likely the 19 Year cycle (for share prices) has bottomed and that the bottoms precede by a few years the peaks in the 19 year a/p cycle.

  36. Markets almost crashed back in November, so the plans of raising US interest rates had to be postponed.
    The ECB QE saved the bulls this month.
    Unless CB’s zig or zag at the right moment, this bubble will adjust to reality.
    Another round of US QE4 seems inevitable this spring, or are there alternatives?
    These guys sums it up pretty well:

    http://www.richardduncaneconomics.com/blog/

  37. -Technical market report for January 24, 2015 from Mike Burk:
    “One of the breadth patterns we look for in a bull market is expanding new highs and diminishing new lows. The market is split on that score. The NYSE is looking pretty good while the NASDAQ is not. Seasonally we have several strong weeks to look forward to.”

    -Beta, this little PDF may give some insight:
    http://www.markettiming.nl/img/image/Retrograde.pdf
    I will follow your outline the next few months. Basic consepts are often the best foundations.

    -The 3 bottoms in the Nasdaq 100 are encouraging because they look pretty much the same as the 3 bottoms in 1994, resolving at that time to the upside. As soon as we make new highs, I will be a little more at ease. Especially on this blog words like crashes and waterfall declines lost almost all of their glamour. A word of caution never hurts. So here it is.
    I am worried about april/may, as long as I have not the slightest idea what will hit us. What I do know is that we are in the window for a severe sell off. I use an almost static Dow-cycle, going back around 80 years, in which case we had an outright crash already underway 2 x, in 3 other instances it was a lower high from wich point a decline started or went on. The most friendly decline still mounted -15%. It is not march you should be on your toes, it’s february. I have the 10/11 on the Dow and
    I will watch february 17 with no less interest.

    Nick V pointed out february 6 as important. It does not matter to me who is right or if neigther of us is right. Just know that despite the fact I am seeing bullish developments I staying very, very cautious until the indices make highs.

    -Nick, I have listened for years to Terry Laundry’s mumbling (http://stock-market-observations.com/2013/04/17/february-2010-t-theory-update/) and his, at that time, promising T-Theory.
    And yes, I like Jeffery Youngs Public Chart List, just as I like Laundry’s FAGIX:VUTX, pointing ominous down at the moment, a big red flag. But how on earth can you state that his theory is accurate to predict tops, knowing that Laundry was wrong, wrong, wrong many times. I was flabbergasted. Not because he made terrible calls based on his theory, but because he did not adress them at all afterwards. For months – -2010? -he prepared his listeners for a new bear market. When the dates passed and nothing happend he bluntly draw a new T in the NYse Advance Decline Line. Not worth a minute of your time. Your date is on my list. Thanks.

    1. Thanks Peter for the retro article. Looks like frequent pattern for Merc Retro is down then up latter half. Maybe this time the same.

    1. Allan are you a permabear? All your posts arecalling for a crash? Why should markets crash? The world will always have problems but that hasnt stoped markets from moving up in the past.

      1. Duncan, where in my last post did I even mention the word CRASH?

        I simply stated that Tsipras got his mandate. I doubt he will have the guts to act.

        DAMN!!

        1. In fact Duncan, pkease got back and view my last 30 posts and tell me how many times I have used the word crash in relation to the immediate outlook!

          Yes I am bearish and I make absolutely no apologies to anyone for that. However before you pass judgement on somebody for being bearish or term them a “permabull” maybe you should give consideration to their investment approach.

          Investment for me is not about trying to skim money from each and every in either direction.
          I approach investing by either selling or buying when historical extremes are achieved. We are at historical extremes of overvaluation. I sold many months ago and I am bearish because history says to be bearish.

          I bought gold and gold stocks because they are at historical extremes and history says I will again be right and the likes of Mr Armstrong who scared the living pants off investors about gold and gold stocks and drove many of them out at the bottom will be wrong.(although he will spin that to make it look differently)

          I believe time will prove me correct and John too.

        2. Armstrong did the same thing in the late 90s… he was wrong wrong wrong on his projections… all of his posts were deleted from his website. The man has major issues.

  38. Greek exit polls appear to indicate a change of Government.

    Multiple reasons for a down day tomorrow, Greece, Ukraine
    tensions rising again, Nigeria unrest increasing,
    a more sober/considered assessment of Euro area QE,
    potential for renewed commodity falls.

    Having outlined the above, it’s difficult to see significant
    downside gaining traction currently, just my take.

  39. Allan, Greece will not topple markets, 1-2 days downside
    maybe on that news.
    Markets had ample time to factor in this outcome.

    1. Completely agree Phil. Markets were expecting a change in government. Some moderate selling perhaps but then onto new highs.

      Weve had a greek scare in 2011 and 2012. Its priced in. Bears will always lick their chops at any negative news and call for armageddon. Surely bears know not gulliable enough to trust a politician? Yeah they might say we wont pay our debts but they all waterdown the promises.

      1. Phil never said Greece would topple markets. Simply stated a fact.

        Again I am bearish and will remain bearish until markets revalue. History says I will be right unless this is the only time that history has it wrong.

        And you can bet when I am buying extremes at the other end when the time comes that I will be coping as much flack from the otherside!

        1. And I sold all my Sydney real estate for exactly the same reasons that I sold my equity investments….way way overvalued on a historical perspective and yet I am hearing the same arguments here about how prices can much higher because of blah blah blah.

          No thanks, I have been around long enough to when to take your money and shoot through!

  40. This is why a speculator should ignore news, fundamentals, reputable ‘inside’ information (known inside information is nothing other than manipulation). Insiders don’t disclose what they know and what they do. Did you hear in the news about China’s stocks potential in June 2014? Were you buing or were the insiders buying quietly in the second half of 2014? Now when the market rose, everybody is talking about it, but still only some outsiders made profits. While the media is offering 100 reasons why the rally is over or close to be over, 100 signs that the top is in, as they cried wolf after a reaction day of -7% the other day (the market is well above that level today). This article has a clear purpose : discourage the public from buying China, incourage to take profits and to keep away. Which tells me that the insiders didn’t buy as much as they wanted! There is more to come! This article is read by non-professional market participants, the ideas picked up by their minds reapear later on trading forums and dumb sites like zerohedge, then some wonder how come 90% of participants lose money!

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-25/china-bull-market-masks-momentum-breakdown-as-stock-volumes-sink.html

      1. I don’t know what you mean. Post you heard were not mine. I am happy to be wrong at some point coz being always right is tiresome. If the big money starts to sell, I will see this on the charts, instead of reading about it on bloomberg.

  41. Glad I moved to cash on Friday. 7D 4 bear, 2 bull, 1 neutral:

    Daily Seasonals: up all next week
    Declination: up all next week
    De planets: mercury retrograde vol up, direction unclear
    Diameter of light(phase): down all week
    Distance: down all week (apogee is ahead)
    Depth tide: down until Thursday
    Direction short term price(as of Sunday evening): down

    Bearish factors outweigh bullish unless price direction changes.

    Sticking with outlook that market will bottom with tides on Thursday. Friday is last trade day which often pops upward in down trending market.

  42. daveg. Lol buddy. By all means use me as a contrary indicator I am used to it. i have said it before, it goes with the territory but history says I am right and the fact that so many are now saying I have no idea says we closer than ever to a strong new down trend.

    Either way I don’t care. I am not short stocks. I own high quality gokd stocks that are now making money hand over fist.

    Gold AUD is soaring and now on top if that their costs are plummeting due to cheaper oil.
    Wait and see what happens when next qtr earnings come out for gold miners!!!!

    1. Since the beginnng of November the AUD gold price has risen 27% whilst the cost of diesel in Australia has declined almost 20%.
      Many miners would now be tripling their profits per ounce of gold over and above AICC’s and yet the market still hasn’t got over the huge sell-off from 2013-14 and many are still mired in the bearish rhetoric of the likes of Martin Armstrong and MS media talking heads that were bullish at the top and bearish at the bottom

      Don’t forget MA was talking 5k gold in 2011 and much higher interest rates by 2013.
      Now he is talking of 23k DOW and $800 gold amd 160 DXY!

      Whether many of you bulls admit it or not you are to some extent caught up in the overall bullish hype and are failing to see the rationality of topping action.

      Ignore fundamentals all you like but ultimately the market will not ignore the fact that the US is by far the most indebted nation on the planet. Forget 18 trillion it is well over 120 trillion.
      Velocity of money continues to collapse, borrowing is in decline,margin debt is at record highs along with personal household debt. Wages are not growing.
      In 2000 we were told that fundamentals no longer counted either and technical analysis was all the rage.

      I could go on but John has done a excellent job of trying to alert everyone to the massive dangers but people just refuse to believe that markets are topping and that gold and gold sticks are now at multi decade turning points.

      Let history be your guide.

      1. I do let history guide me Allan and history tells me you are wrong. You will get this correction, but then off we go north, forget the fundamentals they are a lagging indicator and they are always changing, thought you’d know that by now. I have just told everyone to buy Sydney Real Estate, don’t let me down Allan.

  43. “Market makes you earn your conviction”.
    “Either way I don’t care. I am not short stocks.”
    Allan

    I think that if you short the broad market, you will be at least half right :
    If the powerful downtrend starts tomorrow, you have earned your conviction and made money.
    If the market squeeze you out, at least you lose your wrong bias.
    By being a bear with no commitment makes you a permabear who may well be shouting for the next 12 months even if the market starts to advance to the tune of 10% a month, and at the top there you will be shauting again that you were right all along!
    For the past 12 months you have been picking up ‘events’ and ‘facts’ that had to lead to declines, to an outright powerful BEAR. Virtually you believe so much in the bear that you don’t see the charts! ‘Evidence is here!’ you say and then show charts that are not topping, not declining, not turning down.
    The market is well ahead of known fundamentals, so your ‘present’ is antiquity for the market, thing you will pick up in a year are already priced in. How come? Because the big money know all you know plus 20x more.
    If fundamental history is your guide, you’re an archaeologist.
    If fundamental present is you guide, you’re an historian.
    If market’s behavior is your guide, you’re a speculator.

    1. despe do you even understand the difference between an investor and a trader?

      Except for a smallish long in volitlity I no longer trade. Have not for several years so thus am not short the market. Just because I am not short hardly makes my conviction any less. That is frankly an absurd assumption.

      You are more of a speculator than I ever was or ever will be.

      1. If you think that there is less speculation on probabilities and risk in investing than there is in trading, you’re wrong.
        So my definition of an investor is : long term speculator.
        Unfortunately, many investors call themselves investors because they scientifically and religiously believe in fundamentals: when they buy, they don’t accept the risks therefore they have no exit policies. About this kind of investing J. Livermore said the following:
        ‘From my viewpoint, the investors are the big gamblers. They make a bet, stay with it, and if it goes wrong, they lose it all. The speculator might buy at the same time. But if he is an intelligent speculator, he will recognize—if he keeps records— the danger signal warning him all is not well. He will, by acting promptly, hold his losses to a minimum and await a more favorable opportunity to reenter the market.’

        1. So what you ask?

          You don’t see the irony in quoting someone who was such a crap trader he killed himself, destitute? Well, good luck to you, you’ll need it.

      1. Maybe. But in my opinion it’s better to have one setup and watch 100 stocks than to have 5 setups and watch 500 stocks. It’s better to have one indicator than 5. It’s better to be exclusively price action expert, than price action and seasonal cycles expert. Why? Because unlike in most human activities, this is a job where less means more. We have been conditioned in our lives to think quickly and a lot, to increase activity when adversity comes, to understand and deal with complexity. If we approach the market this way, we are in trouble. No one can control the market. You cannot know all companies, to read all reports, to follow all news, to calculate all probabilities, to see everything hoping that BRILLIANCE will decide who loses and who wins.
        “Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with 130 IQ.”
        W. Buffett.
        Less elements you control, better you control these elements and more energy you preserve.
        Why is this important? Because you deal with risk ,gain and loss, therefore you deal with emotions like fear, stress, anger, elation. This is inevitable. What emotions do to your mind? Modify the way you see, how much and what you remember, are able to dictate what to do. So the less elements you control, the better you deal with adverse results. Normally, if your system is too complex, then emotions will more easily outmaneuver your judgment. In a dull market you will see opportunities only because you have had a loss and want to get it back. When the market goes against you, fear and hope will make you to look for excuses to remove your stop loss order, and if you have 5 indicators, you will find at least one to hang on to.
        Everything may look fine when you win moderately, you can control multiple indicators and include additional information. But when suddenly you have an unprecedented streak of wins, or losses (because the market changes or you are lucky/unlucky) then straight away complexity starts to work against you. Instead of few losses you are having an unexpected drawdown as you have been fighting the market (we humans increase activity when faced with adversity) and complexity enabled you to do so. Instead of 10 wins in a row, you have 10 wins and one big loss, way to big, because you system enabled you to overtrade, and greed in you after 10 wins just wanted you to make more.

        It’s O.K. for anyone to make a living, trading one stock using one setup. Exclusively, for years and years. Nothing wrong with that!
        But do you know anyone like this?
        While I have seen hundreds of participants, combining elements I couldn’t understand, reading everything and repeating everything they have read, talking about most scientific forces I have never heard of, in other words stuff that would normally fry my brain.

        I am glad to consider other points of view on that, but I strongly believe in simplicity.

        1. There is nothing simpler than John’s Lunar Edge article which shows that most of the gains in global stock markets occur around the new moon. If that is not simple, I don’t know what is. If that shouldn’t be considered in swing trades, I don’t know what should.

          Of course, keep it simple, learn to trade a few patterns and constantly adjust. But I just happen to like astronomy and trading and since this site is the only one I have found that is founded on the premise that markets respond to astro lunar solar effects that is why I am a poster.

          Admitted, I am a new trader and lack the ability to do as you say, trade based upon screens and profit from proven technical setups. In the years to come, I will obtain sufficient knowledge to do that but doubt I will leave behind the fringe indicators since they interest me and when combined show clear price trends.

          I know you have said this stuff does not interest you, so please indulge my tendency to post my opinions and findings on this board. It is my effort as having a conversation with some of the other individuals on this board that are studying similar effects and sharing their ideas.

        2. It is kind of funny that Warren Buffet says this about IQ, when his IQ age adjusted is probably the highest in North America. Ivy League, mastered Graham and Dodd in early twenties, turned a shirt maker (Berkshire Hathaway) into a instantly successful hedge fund at 30.

        3. You don’t need my permission to share your ideas with others 🙂
          Personally I don’t undrstand complex astro indicators. Nothing wrong with using lunar edge alone for trading. But I could not use it along with my setups. It would confuse me and create conflict : moon will say buy, but I won’t see a buy setup or I will find a sell setup. What do I do? Toss a coin?
          I believe in solar cycle – it helps me to stay bullish.

        4. How do you know Buffett’s IQ? Maybe he just knows what is important to know which makes him wise, not intelligent ?

  44. Allan, price is not confirming that currently.

    The DAX has just made a monumental break out,
    you can place this in the context of a lower Euro

    However US markets, with a rapidly rising $
    are just a fraction away from new ATH.

    Either new ATH on US markets are repelled here,
    or the case for markets topping is lost.

    That may be decided this week.

    1. Phil, market topping action can take month upon month to play out. I refuse to stay invested in a market that is so obviously overstretched by just about every single measure one wants to use.
      This is the most overvalued market in history when looked at in seceral parameters. Both the DOW and SP500 at all time highs in both nominal and inflationary terms and bulls have the gall to tell me I shouldn’t be bearish or sold my equities??

      I couldn’t give two rats if the markets goes 10% higher from here because I buy and sell based on value and at present there is no value ANYWHERE except the gold sector.

      Central Bankers have completely distorted markets to a point where artiicially low interest rates are beoming self consuming.

      It is staggering to me that people can not see this!

    2. What you call a ‘monumental break out’ Phil, I call an exhaustion parabolic top.
      Only time will tell which of us is correct, the odds however are not in your favour, given all of our host’s analysis.

      I’m with Allan, easy money to be made in gold and miners over the next cycle.

  45. Alan, appreciate your view.
    You certainly do not owe me any explanations
    or need to justify positioning.

    We all make our own decisions, for various reasons,
    and live with those.

    For me capital preservation has a higher priority
    than it will for many, this was not always the case.
    When younger I was happy to accept more risk.

    I accept there is currently a bearish bias on this blog
    and that’s one of the reason’s I read – as a counterbalance
    to much of the mainstream bullishness.

    Having said that, John Hampson’s worst case scenario was
    a December 2014 top, as Duncan referenced (apologies if
    I have misread this) – so if US markets now go on to form
    new ATH, then that view has been largely invalidated.

    I have a great deal of respect for John, his quality of work
    effort and conviction, and the guts to back that up.

    However new US ATH now would clearly indicate this is
    taking a different direction.

    This may be repelled, we will soon see.

    1. All good Phil. Not saying you do but I actually don’t mind people thinking of me as the ultimate contrary indicator or assuming I am nothing but a part-time speculator.

      If too many people began agreeing with me I would actually get a little concened.

      Cheers

  46. Hi all ! Ok, so the ECB didn’t disappoint. I see the DAX at new all time highs. US indices still near the highs, and IBB at new highs. Everything seems under control. Good job by the ECB and the bank of Japan. Personally, i’d like a little more printing by the central bank of China and the FED. I know it’s coming though.
    Are you still waiting for the crash, or are you all finally throwing the towel ?

  47. Covered some shorts this morning….
    Now at 73% net short with actual positions….

    Not saying I have any idea where the next move will be, but we’re not really getting much of a sell-off here, as I thought we might after last night’s futures….

    And my trading system is at 50% long, so there’s that too….
    I don’t want to be too contrary to it, too often…

  48. I dont want to brag, but my analysis has been spot on again, especially my views about central banks. This should be a lesson learned, especially for Allan.
    I also wanted to congratulate all longs for a good 2015 start. Well done !

    1. Usually, when someone starts a sentence with “I don’t want to brag, but….”, that’s exactly what they are doing…

      That out of the way….a serious question for you….

      Do you have any ~other~ analysis??
      Other than:
      When market is going up: “CB’s are buying, market will continue going up…”
      When market is going down: “CB’s will be buying any time now, market will be going up very soon….”

      Because history would say you’re really going to need more than that at some point, if you’re going to survive long-term in the markets…

  49. bubble leadership stays narrow – of the 3 horsemen Dax and Nbi are making new highs. Shanghai capped out. ECB action literally no impact on broad indices as is expected from a weak Euro for US corporates (also see IBM results). Continue to follow the 1937 analog with a target for the DJIA of 9000. Commodities will stay weak untill we bottom in equities according to this analog. Greece will exit the Euro in due course which will facilitate the sell off.

  50. Central Banks are about to make the most horrific investment losses in history. I’ve given up on the timing as i keep getting it wrong. The alternate scenario is that this huge experiment does not crash and every single global government bond yield turns negative. God help us all if we get another global recession at that point as I have no idea what could be done to recover from it.

    1. Krish, Bernanke still has a chopper on standby. It’s getting a bit rusty and may not be able to take off by the time that calamity arrives.

      1. I was merely asking if he does any “other” type of analysis…..

        Repeating, “the CB’s will buy so no matter what you do, buy as well and you can’t lose money” really only works in one type of market….
        And granted, we’ve been in exactly THAT type of market, longer than most would have believed, so I spot you that, but markets change…
        Sooner or later, they all change….
        And I’m sure you know that and agree with that….

        So just wondering if Nicolas has any other analysis….

      2. Is he correct this time though?
        We’ve just seen $1.2 trillion in QE announced, nothing much by way of response in the markets so far. One day up. Whoopee doo.
        The days of markets rising (perhaps due to misplaced belief in QE) are running out, and guess what, it happens to coincide with reducing solar activity and a load of other indicators that have proven to be reliable in the past.
        He clearly is a troll, but soon he won’t be showing up, as the bear begins in earnest.

  51. My entirely life on the Markets and is the 1st time that I think is better to be ignorant and dumb than other think since oct´12.

    @apanalis

    1. Hahaha! 🙂 I know exactly what you mean…

      That said, ignorance NEVER works out in the long term…. It always comes back around to bite you in the ass at some point, but you just never know when….

      I keep telling myself that… LOL

  52. The UKX is on the cusp of breaking out of a 15 year
    trading range.
    In index linked terms it’s well below prior peaks.

    However this remains a significant milestone for UK markets.

    It may happen tomorrow unless the US advance towards new
    ATH is now repelled.

    1. It’s been topping at these levels since May 2013, still can’t make it.
      On the verge of breaking down from an obvious rounded top.
      Have you rose-coloured permabull glasses? 🙂

    1. I agree. Trend is your friend. Higher highs and higher lows = bull market.

      As soon as that changes we start talking bearish scenario.

  53. There’s no change on most of the charts I have presented in the last couple of posts, so I continue to wait for more definitive action one way or the other. They key change is the bullish developments in European indices, but this is set against a weakening Euro. Here is the leader, the Dax. Is breadth in a year long down trend, a telling negative divergence, or did breadth washout by the end of 2014 and the market correction has been by time rather than price?

    1. Yes it is in time, it is an expanded flat. The moves so far a three waves.
      There will be one big move lower for C of the expanded flat, but that will not be THE TOP. It will be a great buying opportunity.

    2. When is the most bullish time for stocks? When the Central Bank is pouring money into a weak economy. Ie, the US FROM 2009. ABENOMICS. China. The DAX is a major breakout as euro loosening.. The US is tightening so that is negative ie tight into a “strong” economy.

  54. 3 horsemen have a chance to close lower today (DAX, Shanghai, NBI). Would be a change. Strong safe haven currencies of note (Swiss, Yen).

  55. Some BIG BIG misses and warnings coming in and by big I mean CAT and PG That parabolic dollar and global slow down is beginning to bite hard.
    There are huge expectations for AAPL afterhours and if they miss Mr market ain’t gonna be happy.

  56. Lots of reading to catch-up on here, but trading comes first….

    Just finished covering all stock market shorts, and now 59% long as of just a few minutes ago…
    My trading system is at 50% long, so close enough alignment for me….

    The market sell-off this morning, I’m calling a gift…
    Going through charts last night, I really didn’t see anything that made me want to be short the market right now….so as I said, I’m considering this a gift this morning…
    That’s not to say I’m a raging balls-out bull, by any means, but just seeing a trade to the upside developing, and I’m…..partially….taking it…
    GL

    1. Au contraire. I am taking profits on the $ and covering oil shorts. Shorting the US stock market. Is the long awaited top Finally here? Well, I’ve been stopped out a lot lately. The best wisdom I have ever read on trading is from Dave Briese, follow buy signals in a bull mkt and ignore sell signals. Vice versa in a bear mkt. Well, the summation index gave a buy signal 5 days ago on the NYA, it hasn’t worked. The NASDAQ gave one yesterday, looking bad. However, it could be a gift by as no clear break down. So a buy signal not working is a bearish sign, but I am definitely gun shy due to the massive bullish booms that keep going off every time I short.
      Also, still no credit conditions sell signal. A system that got one in 2009 and still long!

      1. Kent, I re-read your note about 3 times, and I ~still~ can’t figure out why you would start your reply to me by “Au contraire”…

        And IF I was long the US Dollar, or short crude, I would be doing exactly what you just said…. But those are two markets I’m not even referring to….

        All I’m looking for is a trade in the general stock market to the upside, for a bit, and then we’ll see…
        I’m hardly bullish, yet my favorite charts are telling me there’s no good reason to be short “right now”, and my system is saying be long as well…. So ATM, I am considering this a gift in that I can cover some shorts on a huge down day, and look for an opportunity on the upside…

        1. I’m thinking (hoping) this is at long last the beginning of a meaningful correction. I understood your missive as you were expecting the opposite. It seems that every one of these big down opens, reverse. We’ll see. Whenever someone has an opposite view from me, I like to see their reasoning like right now, I am still bearish on gold, but some good arguments are being made to the long side. I think it is in a 20 year bear mkt. Many believe the last 3 years were a correction in a bull mkt. So have I been right for the wrong reasons or is a bear mkt in full force?

    1. Your trade is supporting the internal breadth. You should make money.

      Gundlach first to jump out and talked about the 1937 premature tightening experience. No rate increase. The FED has learned.

      1. The ONLY way the Fed even hints at tightening – ever, at this point – is if they WANT a market sell-off…. I believe Allan said that as well, some time ago, but I’m firmly of that belief as well….

  57. I am in cash, waiting for this NYC Boston snow blizzard to subside, and for tides to bottom out on Thursday. Moon is firmly negative right now (3Ds distance increasing, declination past equatorial sweet spot, diameter of light increasing to full moon weakness). Between now and February 3 full moon no love from the earth’s lunar friend. Seasonals are really positive though. Toss of coin.

  58. Just an observation…
    Hard to think that today is the start of something serious, in that the RUT is down less today, than it was up yesterday…. Difficult to see how, but there it is….

    1. I don’t get the personal vendetta stuff here lately. D, you sound like a good trader that uses discipline and follows a system. I respect that. I also respect John a great deal and think his blog would be better served if guests stuck to the markets and not to personal jabs.

      1. Rick, well put. People get emotional and sometimes those emotions get the best of them. That the charitable way to put it. Another way is to say certain people are just being plain immature when engaging in such behavior, to which I say that says more about them than the person being jabbed.

    2. despe, “cause and effect” mate,

      John has identified the the former, which then flows on to fundementals thus effecting markets.
      You wish to ignore the deteriorating picture that is most definitely your choice but something is going to give.
      The parabolic dollar(effect) is hurting US companies in a globally slowing economy in which SC24 has pushed speculation(effect)to extremes.

      QE(effect) has distorted perceptions and altered behaviour dramatically, again leading to extremes ie omplacency(effect) amongst others.

      1. I fully agree. I don’t like the economies, currency wars, debt, taxation, globalisation, I even don’t accept the existence of CBs. One day the market will start to decline.

        But I choose to follow the price instead of thinking about everything else. I ignore the fundamentals not beacuse of this bull market so you wrongly associate my approach with all those voices that can be heard at the Top about the market taking off and being no longer connected to the economy. My non-fundamental approach is my own choice, made years ago.

        All you know is not going to tell you when the Bull ends. Price is the ultimate leader.

        1. “My non-fundamental approach is my own choice, made years ago.”-
          I told you that some 8-9 months ago, but probably you don’t remember.

        2. despe, mate not sure what is going on here but I have never knocked your non-fundamental approach, It was you who began knocking me about fundamentals and referring to me as a speculator.
          Let’s get things clear here. I am no longer a trader. I stopped trading following the collapse of MFG. I am now all but retired. I have no desire, from a risk perspective to leave my hard earned in a market that I feel is in it’s final moves.

          I care not if I miss another 10-15% because the easy money has been made. The risk fom here increases with each passing week.

          I won’t repond any further fom here because this is detracting attention fom John’s work.

        3. It depends on price action, beacuse the market may form a consolidation, regular or narrowing. The topping consolidation in gold last over a year before it clearly broke down in 2013. Also the price may simply turn, forming a lower high which may indicate shorting opportunity like it was the case for US market in 2008. Bear market bottom can be V shaped, more likely than the top. We also have a climax pattern : the price accelerates and goes up and up steeply every day, but one day it turns down just like that and never looks back. I believe this is what happened to gold in the 80’s.
          To be honest, I thought about possible lower high in 2011 : maybe it doesn’t look that obvious when you look at S&P, but the European indices clearly broke down through the trendlines. I was wrong, well, the market proved me wrong.
          As far as I can remember, also John was considering a possible lower low then, but he bought the low and closely watching the developments, he carried his position to new highs.
          Personally I am not concerned with tops or bottoms. If the market changes direction, I change my bias.

  59. “… am still bearish on gold, but some good arguments are being made to the long side. I think it is in a 20 year bear mkt. Many believe the last 3 years were a correction in a bull mkt. So have I been right for the wrong reasons or is a bear mkt in full force?”

    Kent, I am in the camp that believes in the theory that autumn 2011 to maybe mid-2015 is merely a corrective cycle nestled within a much longer term bull cycle for gold that began from its bottom in 2000 (or late 1999). The thesis that I use is the analogy with the last mega bull cycle in gold around the early 1960’s to 1980. Unfortunately gold was artificially fixed in price by the government for the first ten years of that cycle, but after exploding in price from $35 in early 70’s to nearly 6x in value by 1975, it then had an extended brutal correction for nearly two years (1975-76) when it lost nearly half its value from $195ish to $105ish. It then exploded from there hitting over 8x from that low on an intraday spike at the very top in early 1980.

    I am of the mindset that this decline in gold that began in late 2011 is similar to the mid-70’s correction, right before price went parabolic in a massive blow off top with most of the net price gain occurring in the final nine months of that last cycle. And because of this analogy, I am also of the mindset that this current rally in gold is merely due to seasonals and relief from heavy tax loss selling (similar to early 2014), before it resumes another decline into early summer. I have no idea if it establishes new lows (i.e. $1000) or if it is just another retest of $1130-1140 again, but my analysis indicates this year should be the bottom and a major trend change in gold and gold stocks.

  60. So far the week of Jan 26-30 that was supposed to be a very bad week as alluded to my comment last week after an initial positive reaction to ECB news and then selling off has worked out. The impressive gains on Jan 22 will probably limit the net downside to any sell off now, because the negative technical chart action was somewhat negated.

    The wildcards are Apple earnings future guidance and Fed meeting tomorrow obviously … making it either is today as bad as it gets (i.e. -45 SPX points) or is there one more sell off for a lower low later this week? Probability points to a retest of 2000 level from a further sell off but anything is possible in these crazy markets …

    1. Aaron – i agree. some of us need to enjoy it when it happens.

      i’m not underestimating the desperation of the PTB though.

      you have to expect them to keep trying

      just have no idea what rabbits up what sleeve

  61. Putting away my long term Dow-cycle-chart for a moment and concentrating on shorter timeframes, this time on the S&P 500, I encountred almost the same day André mentioned,
    André has february 3. I came up with february 4. André believes this is the end of Wave 3, my date showed up as the most likely target for the start of a sell off.
    If nothing happens around that time, that’s fine by me.
    As soon as we make new highs I will gladly return to the bull-camp. My cycles tell me otherwise and although they often trick me, the price-action so far is not bullish. I have only taken a speculative, small short position and will not add as long as no important support-zones are being broken. We just might be consolidating before resuming the bulltrend .

  62. Well, just got done looking through a good number of charts tonight, and have to say, other than watching the Dow close down almost 300 points today, I sure wouldn’t have known it by looking through the charts….

    Money-flow has looked supportive of higher prices these past few days, and that continues for today as well…..

    I could feel completely different by the end of the week, but for now, Long and Strong….

  63. The RUT looks the most likely to make a new ATH.

    If that happens the premise that equities peaked in 2014
    is invalidated.

    You can look at the DAX in the context of a lower Euro,
    a new RUT ATH would be made with a stronger $.

    Fascinating few days ahead to see if new ATH’s can be
    repelled.

  64. R2K has recently spent more time than ever at the upper bounday of the range that started to form in early 2014. Also the fakeout to the downside in October 2014 can be regarded as positive : many times, probably more often than not, a return after fakeout is a new move, instead of just a return to range. The range is long enough so the breakout is more likely that further ranging.

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