Short Term US Update

The breakout in equities is likely to become a fake-out or short final up leg, based on historical indicator patterns. Breadth and strength have negatively diverged:

26apri19Source: Stockcharts

Volatility relativity also suggests a correction or consolidation should now come to pass:

26apri1Source: Fat-Pitch

‘Smart money’ bearishness is off the scale:

26apri20Source: Dana Lyons

US economic data surprises remains deeply negative. Two updates from this week:

26apri10

Source: Sober Look

26apri5Source: Alhambra

Blended earnings for Q1 are so far better than expected: -2.8% versus -4.6%, but of course still shrinking. Blended revenues are worst than expected -3.5% versus -2.6%. ECRI leading indicators have improved but are still negative.

On the bullish side, leverage has been on the increase again.

26apri7Source: DShort

And real narrow money indicators point to economic improvement ahead.

26apri3Source: Moneymovesmarkets

There are two scenarios currently in my mind. My first and highest probability scenario is as per the first several charts above plus all the charts in my last post, namely that stocks are right at the end of a major topping process, and under the hood they already topped. That means last week’s apparent price breakout will quickly fail. I have smallish short Dow and long gold positions aligned to this, looking to build on reversal and momentum.

My secondary or outsider scenario is that US stocks have yet to join Chinese and German stock indices in a parabolic blow off ending pattern, fuelled by potential improvement in economic fortunes/prospects into summer-end. This would be similar to the lag of the Sep 1929 stocks max versus April 1928 solar max, a kind of maximum outsider in the historic range. Should this appear to be occurring I would step aside and continue to try to identify the top.

Ultimately, as things stand right now, I consider all the key supports for the bull have been removed. Earnings, economic data, smart money, allocations, sentiment, valuations, solar max, geomagnetism. We are left with dumb money on leverage, plus expectations that both the economy and earnings will recover in the remainder of 2015. We might consider the latter is key: whether data does improve again – and maybe it is. However, recall the evidence shows that the stock market leads the economy rather than the other way round. The wealth effect of the stock market. The question then is what will cause participants to pull the plug on equities? We are now in a phase of ultra-complacency where most traders can see nothing that would cause that to happen. Yet that ultra-complacency makes us at highest risk of the collapse.

A final chart: the collection of countries now paying negative returns on government bonds. Swiss 10-year bonds are amazingly now paying a guaranteed negative return. It should be clear that when money is being invested in a bond paying an assured loss for several years then it is because deflation, recession and relatively larger losses in other asset classes are expected. Either that, or investors are making a foolish mistake. So who has it right, stocks or bonds? Smart money flows, valuations, allocations and sentiment all continue to show the bubble is in stocks, not bonds. Bonds and commodities are accurately reflecting the harsh reality of current global demographics, trade, and economics, whilst equities have become a ponzi scheme divorced from fundamentals.

26apri12

Source: Emma Masterson

 

 

 

 

 

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576 thoughts on “Short Term US Update

  1. Thank you much John. Super analysis as always. The last table Paying to Lend is really helpful and eye opening. thanks,

  2. Good information and charts John – Thanks!

    Update from Richard Duncan:

    Liquidity Gauge Warning: After mid-year, Look Out!
    April 25, 2015

    Liquidity determines which way asset prices move. When there is excess liquidity, the price of stocks, bonds and property tends to rise. When liquidity is negative, the price of those assets tends to fall. After two years of excess liquidity – and rapidly appreciating asset prices – liquidity will turn negative in the second half of this year AND REMIAN NEGATIVE FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS!

    This approaching liquidity drain is not only likely to cause a significant selloff in the financial markets, it is also likely to push the economy back into recession. http://www.richardduncaneconomics.com/liquidity-gauge-warning-after-mid-year-look-out/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+RichardDuncan+%28Richard+Duncan+Economics+%29

  3. John; great article.

    I have several reasons to suspect week 16 was significant.

    1) Lunar inversions; the december apo-peri inversion gave the December cit. In April I have a declination inversion; both strong.
    2) IMF; the IMF is driven by tidal force on the sun. 4 planets are involved : Jupiter,Venus,Mercury and earth. In February we had the earth Jupiter conjunction. But Venus has more than double Earths pull. April 25th saw the heliocentric Venus Jupiter conjunction. This is by far the strongest pull this year, with a peak in IMF. Surprisingly this coincides with Earth crossing the solar sector boundary. This reverses IMF’s polarity. This confluence alone is a major event.
    3) Trading planets. Mars was at perihelion December 3rd. Venus and Mercury were at perihelion April 18/19. This is synchronous with the tidal inversions.
    4) Venus is out of bounds and Mercury will follow soon. Mars will do this in June. This correlates with increased volatility.
    5) The current 135 degree (or 3/8 as Gann would say) angle on Saturn/Uranus has 3 passings : December 3rd 2014, May 4th 2015, October 22nd 2015. This also confirms the above.
    6) the full moon cycle. This cycle takes 412 days and gives 3 to 4 new moons at perigee and 3 to 4 full moons at perigee. Perigee amplifies the impact of both moons. The new moon at perigee is a favorable period for markets. It started in January and ends in ……. April!. Last year we saw the same pattern with the October decline during the full moon at perigee period. Last year the apo peri cycle was still positive for markets. Since December this has changed.

    It’s remarkable that 6 different techniques all give December and April.

    Seems to me the things that kept the market from falling : lunar inversions, IMF, full moon cycle, trading planets, all end in April. The increase in volatility – that produced noisy intraday ath’s in a consolidating market – signifies the importance of this turn.

    My Gann timing on the october low gave april 22 as a very significant date (7th in one major angle). We are now 206 days after the September/October decline in 2014. 206 is 180 degrees in the full moon cycle. October 15th + 206 cd’s gives may 9th. Venus and Mercury reach peaks in out of bounds positions may 10th.

    April 19 earth quake near Japan, April 22nd Vulcano eruption in Chile, April 25th massive quake hitting Nepal. This coincides with the superior earth-mecury conjunction of april 10th. Acoording to Richard Nolle the impact is felt 2 weeks later +/- 3 days; from april 21st to april 27th.

    The October decline started at first quarter; heading into the full moon and ended at last quarter. First quarter April 27th, last quarter may 11. My harmonic timing system gave a regular low may 7th, the day mercury is max east.

    Ah; gravity. Yes, gravity gave the high this weekend. Monday the high and then down into the ma 9/10th weekend. We will see 3 legs down with a retrace up around the FOMC meeting and after that further down. Still convinced we are headed for a 2017 low. So will this be a massive decline? No, don’t think so. But this could be the start of the bear market.

    Please notice I didn’t need central banks to explain this move.

    Cheers,

    André

  4. A little exercise in HC astro.

    Venus and Jupiter are conjunct in Leo. Leo is a fire/yang sign; active! This gives even more weight to this event.
    Mercury joins in Leo today. HC Mercury in Leo correlates with cit.

    The tightening Jupiter-Saturn square (also supporting unrest in Earth’s crest (3rd quake in Nepal today) Gets heavily activated by Mars; square Jupiter and opposite Saturn. Even Mercury trines Saturn. This all with just a few orb. And all the while Saturn stays close to a conjunction with the Galactic Center.

    Should be an explosive mix. We’ll see.

  5. Thanks for a thoughtful post John.
    This sentence is key in my opinion:

    ‘However, recall the evidence shows that the stock market leads the economy rather than the other way round.’

    I would add that the credit cycle leads the economic cycle. Nothing to do with corporate earnings at all, they are a lagging indicator, much like jobs.

    Interesting that government bond yields fell on Friday, even as the stock market rose, usually a bit of a tell.

    We will see, good luck everyone.

  6. I did not expect much more than SPX 2070, but its 103 points up to SPX 2220 for primary wave 3 top. Within a month probable. Corrective wave 4 then down not more than 400 points with as little as 290 more likely. That can be anywhere between 3 to 9 months duration (not in a straight line, or even well behaved). Thats all for klingon bears for now. Then P5 impulse formation commences with 700 points to emulate.That can take 2 years. Then the bull cycle from 2009 will end at between 8 and 9 years of age. The next bear cycle should be no more than 3 years, 5 at a push. If you still counting the days, day by day then you got a lot more to go. Any bear jumpers still with accounts should not get excited by minor waves, although they are day trading food, they are not for position holders. It should be clear by now that nothing works, does not even help.
    I thank you, I thank you
    Good Day

    1. Peter_on thx very much for your contribution. It would help if you would explain ‘why’ you make those prognosese.

    2. ‘That can take 2 years. Then the bull cycle from 2009 will end at between 8 and 9 years of age. The next bear cycle should be no more than 3 years, 5 at a push. ‘

      No way we go 8-9 years from 09.

  7. Lunar Chord 7 D:
    Degree of illumination: negative full moon coming
    Declination: post far N, equ. cross on Thursday, positive
    Distance: apogee Wednesday, weak Wed to Fri
    Depth of tide: falling all week, negative
    De Planets: generally supportive, except Saturn opp on May 23
    Direction of price: trend is friend to bulls
    De Element: Metal month, metal chops paper (shares are paper)

    1. The journey to nearby top must complete this minor 3 and negotiate a minor corrective 4th. Thats a potential exercise in even more frustration. I hold some long with nearby fixed stop and go fishing
      Yes yes
      Good Day

  8. JOHN,

    The breakout in equities is likely to become a fake-out or short final up leg.

    SO YOU KEEP SAYING and so she keeps rising!!

  9. what I find interesting is just how few posters now contribute to this blog, all those bears either been wiped out after following johns bearish slant and still calling for a fall after 16 months now!!!!!!! or they have joined the free party and gone long.

    1. some of us do not post for our own reasons
      I have shown the tools I use and since 3/26
      they have triggered long in indexes
      and I have no need like some other traders to post against
      John’s work.

    2. Robbie,

      I find that interesting as well. Bear markets kill both ways. Bears get wiped out by being early. Bulls get wiped out because there are no more bears. Its a paradox.

  10. John: “We are left with dumb money on leverage, plus expectations that both the economy and earnings will recover in the remainder of 2015. ”

    Like MOST here I’m a staunch fan of your work here and for which I’m very grateful.

    However we aren’t ‘just’ left with the 2 things you mention. The 300 Pound Gorilla in the room is the CBs collective ability to usurp financial control and use ‘free money’ which has no accountability to distort markets beyond, at least my, wildest imagination.

    I don’t really know how you can ‘quantify’ their involvement but I suspect (like our dear Nicolas) that we need to include their ‘contribution’ in the equation to get a better handle on what might happen next.

    Otherwise we are constantly ‘wrong’…which is painful & Not just monetarily.

    1. Don’t sweat about the CBs Purvez.
      They are both irrelevant and impotent.
      When this thing gets going, no one will be able to stop it.
      The bull will die of its own accord.

      1. Another possibility is CB selling the shares they have accumulated which if done at once could reverse all of the price gains quickly.

        1. I don’t think purvez is saying that CB help the market in the long term, but that we have not factored in their impact, good or bad, for the short term “remainder of 2015”.

      2. GM, John H has already shown us in great detail and very eloquently that the bull is dead from the neck down. However the head still keeps bobbing upwards!!

        I’ve been thinking about ‘how’ the CBs are keeping the markets afloat….and here is a hypothesis.

        Currently there are a number of groups of large investors:

        – Mutual Funds
        – Hedge Funds
        – Large Banks
        – MMs

        Most managers in the first 2 groups recognise that valuations are high. Now lets say one of them decides it’s time to cash in and starts unloading with a smallish package. The CBs pick up on this activity and start flooding the market with buy orders to overwhelm this initial small package AND make the market rise just a bit.

        Now that manager is in a quandry. Does he sell more in the wake of a rising market or ride with it? Since most are incentivised by performance the answer is easy. ‘Ride with it’.

        Hence the CBs ONLY have to control the market ‘at the margin’ to prevent a fall.

        So the ONLY way this market will fall is if there is some panic event (a Lehman moment) when everyone tries to unload and that overwhelms the CBs attempts to control at the margin.

        Such an event could be geo-political, although the market seems impervious to those these days

        OR

        A financial crisis. The Alhambra blog continues to demonstrate abnormal behaviour in the ‘money’/’dollar’ markets (I don’t profess to understand all of it) and implies that this is due to liquidity problems.

        So my guess is that the ‘panic’ will come from the financial section.

        This is ALL guess work but a bloke’s got to pass his time in some way while this boring churn higher continues.

        I’d be very interested in others opinions/guesses here please. Thx.

        1. Something like that makes sense to me. Certain large players using high leverage on ZIRP to manipulate sufficiently the margins. I can’t explain the recovery from October last year. Those falls should have been it, by all ‘normal’ analysis. I am loathe to join calls for ‘manipulation’ because historically they have been wrong, but I find the last 6 months very hard to explain without some inference.

          Historically, major tops didn’t have a trigger (beyond the usual neg divergences, etc). They occurred, and then later we got the trouble arising. Everyone is on one side of the boat, I figure we just need a critical mass of players shifting across, and we have a host of reasons for them to do so (earnings, economic data, valuations, technical health) to protect their own self-interest.

        2. purvez, I just don’t agree with the notion that CBs are buying to keep markets afloat (other than in Japan), and I think the US markets are just going through their normal topping process, which can take up to 12 months of mostly sideways churn, with marginal new highs.

          As Jeff Snyder has mentioned, the credit cycle has turned, banks are tightening, irrespective of the CBs, and they control the spigot that keeps asset prices up. Equities are always the last asset class to realise the jig is up, it’s the same this time.

          It will end soon.

  11. Thanks John.

    Please dont take this as a harse critisim but in numerous articles you have mentioned that your primary expectation was steep falls into april which have not materialised. You mentioned then that if that did not happen then next window would be July top.

    This article has your primary expectation as a false breakout in the face of new highs in leverage. I dont mean to provoke argument andyou know I a fan of your site but we all need to keep eachother honest and would welcome a reason why the July top has invalidated.

    Duncan

  12. As always… excellent observations, commentary & charts from our host.

    “what do you think ?”
    _______________________________________________________________

    Here is what I think:

    This chart shows that gold stocks are the most over-sold and under-valued relative to gold – ever.

    So I think that Nicolas and ilk are utter fool to say that accumulating gold stocks here is a bad idea, (especially given NEM’s stellar Qtr 1 earnings with more to come from others).

    The other chart puts into perspective the actions on Friday of our contra-indicator, Nicolas the bag holder, when he loaded his bag full of Amazon at an EXTREMELY RARE “6-Sigma”, extremely over bought, extremely over-valued price. The volume was HUGE and obviously the smart money was unloading their shares to the mindless, greedy fools that chase pops and tops.

    One can see that a 6 sigma event equates to the 99.99966% probability that Amazon’s price topped on Friday.

    What I think is that the same “this time is different”, ignorant, greedy, fools that ALWAYS appear at the tops to become the bag holders have arrived yet again.

    We are lucky to have them as they ring the bell at tops.

    _______________________________________________________________

    Nicolas
    April 24, 2015

    I just bought AMZN at 448.48$. It’s a nice addition to my portfolio.
    I think AMZN is still VERY CHEAP and should go higher.
    what do you think ?
    _______________________________________________________________

  13. Nicolas
    April 24, 2015

    I just bought AMZN at 448.48$. It’s a nice addition to my portfolio.
    I think AMZN is still VERY CHEAP and should go higher.
    what do you think ?

    ____________________________________________________________

    I think bag holders always appear at tops… and we’re lucky to have fools that ring a bell at the top. Thank you very much.

    I think the following charts reflect just how foolish loading the bag at $448.48 on Amazon was.

    A “6 SIGMA” event guarantees that AMZN price just topped… a 99.99966% certainty on strong volume as “smart money” feverishly unloads hand over fist to greedy, foolish “pops and tops” chasers.

  14. I said in the last thread that I would comment on USERX. I am not going to spell it out and make it ridiculously simple because I now have decided that people need to do some thinking for themselves. I am however prepared to show pieces of the puzzle that continues to unfold right before our eyes.

    Exerts of extreme signficance from Jeff Kern’s last 321 update:

    “The 3/24/15 XXed Out 92-96 index “buy” signal often marks a high and that has been the high-to-date at USERX 5.59. The subsequent 5-day run down often marks a low and it did on 3/31/15 at USERX 5.28”

    “The prior run pattern high of USERX 5.59 and its low of USERX 5.28 are supposed to be technically/psychologically significant. Jeff does not enjoy reporting that a Double Sell index pattern has occurred. A simultaneous Double Sell index situation absolutely “should” mark a significant technical moment….”

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USERX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p38997111499

    Cheers

  15. To answer a few comments. You know my approach: draw together as many angles as I see effect the markets and make a case. In that way I try to make it as objective as possible, but no-one can avoid some degree of subjectivism.

    By Jan 2014 I had 20+ different angles all making a clear case for a bull market peak, and together something compelling. Here: https://solarcycles.net/2014/01/13/us-equities-bull-market-peak-new-bear-market-at-hand/

    Ever since that case has endured and been added to. So I have remained a bear whilst they persist and I can’t change that – unless the large part of those angles change their readings. I trust most of you still reading see it the same way: there has been a strong case for an orthodox stock market peak persisting, so whilst I have been wrong with price, the analysis has still been ‘sound’.

    The solar max is unorthodox as a trading discipline, so always needed cross-referencing. It looks compelling that around mid-2014 we got the speculative peak together with the sun peak (last post). Critically we saw all those different stock market topping indicators form along with the sun reaching its peak, which provided the cross-reference as we went along.

    But why have stocks not topped out nominally after July last year? I find this very hard to answer, and so I am guilty of shifting my forecasts since then. I have continually believed they must be on the cusp of declines and will remain in that difficult position until they finally do.

    Is it central banks policy trumps all? I still think this is the mantra for this mania rather than the fuel. QE and ZIRP are just typing numbers into a computer, corrupting the money mechanism. The world economy remains in deep trouble due to the twin forces of demographics and debt. CBs have surely worsened the problems with that choice of action, rather than improved them. It’s not hard to imagine stocks declining and the mantra switching to ‘despite all CB actions and massively increased debt, economy still crap, CBs impotent’.

    As things stand, I still have a strong case for all-change around the solar max, making the sun the agent not the CBs. But the switch to nominal bear market has to occur soon. If it doesn’t and we are still in a bull market by the end of 2015 then I would throw in the towel both on the sun and the old stock market rules (tops signalled by valuations, sentiment, allocations, leverage, negative divergences, etc) and accept that ‘this time is different’ really was the case this time.

    1. John H, I was one of the ones calling for an additional element to your analysis and this one sentence from your comment is I believe the ‘element’ that we collectively need to find a way of quantifying.

      John H : “QE and ZIRP are just typing numbers into a computer, corrupting the money mechanism.”

      I would however like to re-iterate what others have already said. Our comments are not intended as criticisms and you have made both your position and your case admirably clear. We remain indebted to you for your valuable in depth analysis and for this site which I believe is ‘unique’ in its range of information provided by yourself as well as knowledgeable and varied participants who are largely respectful of each others views.

      So THANKS VERY MUCH.

        1. I don’t really understand why some feel the need to draw conclusions around who doesn’t post any longer and being wiped out. I don’t suppose many follow the advice of others on the Internet when it comes to their hard earned cash? At least I hope not!

          From my time here I have seen that we are all wrong quite often regardless of the process we use and this is unavoidable in life.

          Just be careful and learn. Protect yourselves at all times and take responsibility for your own decisions.

          J

    2. Perhaps the mistake all along has been assuming that financial instability equates always, every time, to equity prices going down.

      Financial instability can also bring on uncontrolled movement to the upside, particularly if the foundation of a market — the currency — is being actively managed.

      Since July 2014 — your precise timing for a top — the markets have shifted dramatically, but in most cases it has been straight to the upside.

      The effects of this can be just as destructive. See Argentina and Venezuela.

      1. Nice analysis Jackie S. I like your train of thought very much. Provides a perspective that I had not considered.

        Thanks for that.

    3. Ignoring demographics and typing numbers into a computer…sounds like “programming”. Ha Ha.

      John, we need to look at climate some more, veered away from it lately in your posts. The sun is at best an observatory of the physics at work, much like climate.

      The two are pillars in the pyramid I keep trying to think of a way to express this, but picture a sine wave compressed like a spring, when compression is gone, stored energy is released and compression is gone.

      The CB’s have released money supply as stored energy to distort moving averages, volume. If there was a way to hypothesize what the markets would look like today if no QE had been done but ZIRP was allowed. Would we be at market top like the sun prognosticates in a classic compressed (spring/sine-wave) market cycle pre-QE or an elongated one that takes 8-10 years to peak (assuming you subject some years as not part of the new higher highs, but just relaxing the stored energy per unit (per dollar )

      Food for thought John…the spring also applies to weaker phases of the solar cycle…

  16. For those gold price watchers, did Martin Armstrong give something away in a recent blog comment:

    ‘In fact, there are people now starting to say gold is dead since it has declined in the face of monetization by the Fed and the ECB. The wider view is the gold rally was all hype and it will never rally. This too is what I warned MUST take place BEFORE you get the low. We had to “shake the tree” and get them all out.’

    It may be just my grammar obsession (and MA is hardly the most accurate typer), but he uses the past tense ‘We had to shake the tree’.

    He sold a report on gold and silver a while back, so he won’t publicly confirm his opinion on when gold hits its bottom, but maybe it already has? Allan, maybe your mate agrees with you? 😉

    Time will tell.

    1. GM, I saw it and thought exactly the same. In fact noticed last week that MA had not been trashing gold for nearly a month?
      Prior he was regularly, like every few days, issuing warnings that gold was likely going to collapse. Not so anymore.

      Maybe, just maybe, he is noticing the same things?

    2. GM I struggle to comprehend MA because I think he uses dictation software and doesn’t bother to correct the obvious mistakes these things make.

      Also once he gets on his Soap Box about his own case and politicians being all lawyers my eyes glaze over.

      My main reason for sticking with him is every so often he’ll come up with a concept/idea which makes me sit up and think ….hmmm.

      1. Me too purvez.

        He grasps more about markets than most; capital flows, cycles etc.
        I feel sorry for the guy too, banged up for years without ever having been found guilty, just because he pissed off the powers-that-be. He has guts these days, and a mission I support: seeing the world through the collapse of socialism and (we hope) out the other side.

  17. I have a feeling the DAX correction may be over and we can start the journey back to 12400 this week. Greece could still spoil the day though. Todays rise is great but need a bit more confirmation as its been a volatile week.

  18. Hi all ! Are you ready for another good week for the markets ? Shanghai up another 3%. New records this morning on US indices.
    Good post today by John. Interesting analysis but as some posters have said, it’s still missing the elephant in the room, which is central banks.
    You can talk all you want about valuations but at the end of the day if central banks are buying stocks and bonds, there’s nothing we can do other than join the party.
    regards.

  19. I’m not so sure about all this advice giving going on here. I think people should be more careful. Telling others about what moves you are making is fine but offering broad unsolicited advice is not right.

    if somebody had taken a posters advice and bought IBB back on march 20th they would still be down 14 points more than a month later.

    1. Well, it depends on who’s giving the advice. I think most people on this board who followed my recommendations are very happy with the results.
      As I said, I don’t want to brag, but my focus on central banks has been very helpful in predicting the markets.

    1. Hi ! If you’re interested, I’m not predicting any major drop in the short term. So, don’t buy puts.
      Regards

    2. Vix at a level that has produced market tops, nasdaq up/down vulume indicator I use has rolled over, put/call ratio is in oversold territory, tick showing less demand (more supply coming into market), and the lunar cycle is weak into the full moon. Lunar cycle was exhibiting strength into Friday because it was in Leo, now it moves to Capricorn which is historically weaker.

      I’m gaming the Swing Trend Indicator which is still on full buy, so might not be a good idea!

  20. There were a few comments about the new high in margin borrowing. Following margin borrowing levels is kinda cute and old fashioned but there is no way to really measure the amount of leverage in this current environment. There are so many people that have pledged securities as security for real estate, business and other personal loans. These accounts have grown much faster than margin loans and currently dwarf margin levels by many times.

    Securities based lending by uninformed people may be talked about in the near future the same way that sub prime mortgages were in ’08.

  21. John,

    I’ve been watching the SP500 lately, along with the other US indexes. I just posted an Elliottwave Analysis, along with a Cycles Analysis (new software) and also some ground-breaking analysis for planetary software. They all point to the same thing.

    http://www.worldcyclesinstitute.com/us-market-topping/

    Appreciate your comments for or against. (I’ve been watching this ending diagonal for awhile now, waiting for it to break).

    1. John does not do Elliott and with this type of so-called analysis I would not disagree with how misleading it can be. Where is your bigger picture? Where are the series of 3’s? Where is your MACD histogram to confirm? Nothing but another amateur. Makes me want to spit. Go read some genuine books.
      Yes I am grumpy. I cannot go fishing until next weekend. Bug…
      Good Day

      1. Haha… first time with the amateur status after so many years! Thanks! Brings back memories.

        Coupled with EW with Cycles and Planetary analysis, if you read. You can drill down for the “3s” – they’re way too obvious and I included them in previous posts.

        Each to his own. Just trying to help.

      2. Peter_ please may I request that you be ‘grumpy’ elsewhere. I asked you a simple question about all the prognoses you gave earlier but you didn’t bother to respond. Yet you feel ‘comfortable’ in being rude to someone who has done more than you have bothered to do.

        We would respectfully request that you find the web site ‘daneric’.something and go play with like minded people there.

        Thanks ever so much for complying.

        1. OK ponse get this – Elliott theory is all over my posts along with my contempt for those who bang on with their thing when it is clear that what they have in their kitbag is not working for a long time. To brush aside certain long established and proven methods and then want to be spoon fed because you are too arrogant to stoop into the required learning process does not endear me.
          Thanks for reading this this now kindly read it again until the message sinks in.
          Yes I an grumpy, so ponse away
          Good Day

        2. Peter_ 🙂 Wasn’t critisising your EW just your ‘rudeness’. Your EW would always be welcome absent your rude behaviour.

        3. Peter_ sorry meant to say that the reason I wasn’t critisising your EW is because I can’t see it anywhere in your posts. Just lots of ‘this will happen’ stuff without any supporting evidence.

        4. Grumph, ok P a little. Take SPX see Primary wave 2 was 400 points, see Major wave 1 clearance over Primary 1, see extension of Primary 3. Are you with me?
          I am not going to wait for you. You know the guideline of when wave 3 extends? Yes, expect wave 5 to emulate wave 1. Now you are getting the bigger picture. See Major 4 was the recent dip that killed the not so nifty bears, yes this is Major 5 of Primary 3 and lo – this is Intermediate 5 and drill down you see within the fake triangle that this is minor 3. What comes after wave 3? Wake up! Its not that difficult. You can factor the probability of sharp or complex and that improves with pracxtice like everything else. Spend a few hamburgers on some classic tombs of the theory and practice and start practicing. Now I need a drink. So endeth your fishing trip.
          Thank you, Good Day

      1. Hi GM,
        IMHO you’re essentially correct. Your 1-2 wave should be higher up (they retrace 62%, so it’s the first retrace). The rest is fairly close. It did a double bottom at the end of 5 down. I’m long GLD which looks similar, but I’m suggesting this is a second wave and will retrace about 62% of the entire wave you posted and then rollover into a larger 3rd wave down.

        (It’s paying off today.)

        1. Mama mia! Touter leading the blind. Stop giving Elliott a bad name. Plenty free sites with guidance for you two. Just totally awful. I would say unworthy, but its worse with incorrect and mono-form wave notation just for starters. Now I feel ill.
          Good Day

        2. I see a guy name Prechter has exactly the same count tonight. We amateurs obviously have a lot to learn.

          Get well soon, Peter.

  22. GM, good post always fun to parse the “Forecaster” formerly known as MA. Harry S. Dent, Jr. is my favorite because he isn’t afraid to have unwavering opinions based upon demographic trends. BTW he is currently recommending buying puts on SPY QQQ, holding cash or Gold, and avoiding real estate: new retirees selling and their children don’t have the income to afford current prices.

  23. Does anyone have info. on a Neptune event that has market effects. Supposedly one is happening soon that has 2/3 predictive value.

      1. i laughed at nicolas’ response to allan that referenced uranus

        but neptune?, man that is way out there. Somethings fishy somewhere.

  24. Another glorious day for the bulls and those that short glitter. all is rainbows and unicorns. cash out refi’s to buy stocks the way central banks do and sell your sister to buy more biotechs and tech stocks at ATHs. buy the dip buy the dip.

    like celadon CLDN. dropped from 20 to 10 in the last 30 days…load the boat and watch her sink under $3 today. buy MOAR

    i hope to take my apple call spreads from me Friday for 150% gain so I can add to my long gold spreads and spy put spreads. also eyeing some overleveraged OIL and Gas names. aapl is the ONLY name in the game to keep the QQQs, Nasdaq, DOW and sp500 from falling off a cliff.

    any one check out my fear ratio post at the end of John’s last update? I’d be interest in some feedback on the buy/sell signals from the chart I posted.

  25. SPX new ath portends sub-minuette iv, not to encroach sub-minuette i (being high of 30th March). You know already? Where from?
    And as you know, this is minuette (iii), minor 3, Intermediate 3 (true), Major 5, Primary 3. And so the crystal clears for every Merlin.
    I thank, I thank you
    Good fishing

  26. Nice charts Peter Temple… I have the same count. I can post the chart if interested. Where I would disagree is with citing Prechter’s count as if that would give any credibility to it. As having been around watching the markets since the early 80s… despite his large following and the disinformation to the contrary, Prechter made a lot of very bad calls. And as far as Puetz, aka “Putz”, his calls were remarkably terrible back at K-1 (Kitco forum in the early days). So bad he was laughed off the discussion board – I was not one who criticized him, but his calls were egregiously bad.

    1. William, i for one would certainly like to see your chart. I don’t know anything about waves but i’m never too old (or conceited) to try to learn

      1. Specie, R2K is leading the SPX, so I’ll post the IWM: today completed a wave ii black and ready to tumble breaking down below the multi-month ending diagonal pattern… (BKX closed the day with a bearish inverted Hammer).

        Next I’ll update my dollar chart posted last week.

        Key Resistance: 127.13

        Key Support: 123.82

        1. This should give you a feel for where gold is headed – Gold always bottoms before the dollar peaks as it has.

          USD Index: c finishes wave ii (black) as a flat correction. The price is now immediately vulnerable to more downside below 97.28.

          Key Resistance: 97.28, 98.42

          Key Support: 96.32

        2. interesting chart. thx william…elliotwave.com has been looking for a terminal wave 5 diagonal in the dow and looks like it may have hit on the nasdaq today.

          i think i like the opportunity in the russel better because they have less opportunity for balance sheet manipulation, obtaining billions in low interest debt to perform stock buybacks and jerry rig eps.

          instead of adding to my spy put spreads, i will throw on a russel spread

          ms market has announced over $1 trillion in stock buybacks so far in 2015. prior to the 2008-9 crash it was 963 billion and market dropped 56%

          have you seen aapls debt load they have added? not bearish as i’m long the call spreads, but nearly all fortune 500 companies are loading the boat with cheap debt and buying back stock at all time highs to pad their stock bonuses. criminal imho. trillions that could have been spent on infrastructure, r & D, jobs, …all going to evaporate

    2. Yeah, I saw yours, William,
      We’re on different pages re gold, but I’m not expecting this wave up to be huge, just a counter. Nice to have someone here who is into EW. (and yeah, I hear you re: Prechter … lol … I have problems with some of his counts … OK, maybe more than some.

      Nice first wave down to now. I think we’re on our way!

      Puetz really isn’t an analyst, I don’t think (at least anymore) but he’s done a whack of science around cycles.

    1. US Dollar index topped on 3/13/2015 and Crude bottomed on 3/18/2015 and both have been trending opposite ever since. Which came first the chicken or the egg. Does Crude lead the USD or does the USD lead Crude? Large Cap stock investors want to know given current “market conditions”.

  27. Lunar Chord:
    Price down today may be blip so as to not steal the Fed Mtg. thunder.
    Tides, moon phase, distance, and declination are 2 +, 2 -.
    Seasonals esp. last three days April, first day May (Friday) are consistently bullish.
    Entered short SPXU today when price stalled out mid morning for 1/2% paper gain. Will exit short tomorrow as I believe Fed will deliver the required massage the market needs to continue rally into at least Friday.

  28. Is this a urban legend or are the Chinese and Indian consumers beginning to sell gold jewelry to speculate in the equity markets?

  29. Trying to time these markets using technical, cyclical or astrological methods and tools is like trying to buy meat from a butcher whose finger is always on the scale. There is always this distortion at play, the butcher here being the Fed (and other central banks).

    One day, someone will shout “The emperor is wearing no clothes,” or to use a similar analogy, Dorothy will pull back the curtain to reveal the wizard as an impotent old man, and all those people who thought the wizard was in full control will realize it was just an illusion. What both of these metaphors have in common is the understanding that the central bankers only have power because we invest them with our belief.

    How do you predict such a psychological event? It may very well align with some technical readings or wave structure, but psychic events are unpredictable. I believe it will be the loss of faith in the omnipotence of the central bankers that will either precipitate the next financial crisis or more likely, be the end result of such a crisis (when it hits full panic mode after everyone can see their utter helplessness). You would have to be a little smart and a little lucky to time such an event.

  30. Our resident contra-indicator, Nicolas, marked the exact top of Amazon yesterday when the smart money was frenetically liquidating on heavy volume to the foolish, greedy bag holders.

    Nicolas was sitting on a loss by the close yesterday and no doubt has buyer’s remorse today with an even bigger loss.

    Yesterday was a “6 Sigma” event where price was guaranteed to fall based on a 99.99966% probability.

    Grab your popcorn, we have a study of “Pride before the Fall” before us.

    1. Wiser, there is no way you can state with any certainty that the Apr 26 52-week high marks the exact top for AMZN. The stock has gained +50% in just three months and profit taking or a correction should not be unsurprising.

      The real question is if it should have gone up by 50% in just three months in the first place. From my perspective, I think analysts and big money investors are now viewing this company from a different perspective and something akin to the company’s ability to instantly turn on a profit spigot at will if it chooses to do so. I confess I do not fully understand their business model but I am beginning to appreciate their strategy more over time.

        1. eh? that’s not obvious to me. How can you make pronouncements about whether another person understands something without asking them about it first? I don’t see where Steve mentioned anything one way or the other about 6 Sigma, so how can you make presumptions about what Steve knows or doesn’t know. And what relevance does that have to the discussion anyway?

        2. Our resident “genius”, pima canyon, comes to the defense of another “genius”, Steve, stating/asking the question,
          _____________________________________________________________
          “eh? that’s not obvious to me. How can you make pronouncements about whether another person understands something without asking them about it first? I don’t see where Steve mentioned anything one way or the other about 6 Sigma, so how can you make presumptions about what Steve knows or doesn’t know. And what relevance does that have to the discussion anyway?

          pima, if the “relevance” is not glaringly obvious to you, I won’t waste my time explaining since you wouldn’t get it anyway.

          ______________________________________________

          Steve replied,

          “Wiser, there is no way you can state with any certainty that the Apr 26 52-week high marks the exact top for AMZN. The stock has gained +50% in just three months and profit taking or a correction should not be unsurprising.”

          Steve seems to be confused as well… if as he states, “profit taking or a correction should not be unsurprising” then why on Earth would our resident contra-indicator, Nicolas, buy at precisely the time that “profit taking would not be surprising” after such a large run-up in price?

          Only a fool would defend someone buying a top after such a large “50% in just three months” advance.

          ________________________________________________________________

          For anyone else, that already understood the relevance of my post, here is what the contra-indicator wrote:

          Nicolas
          April 24, 2015

          I just bought AMZN at 448.48$. It’s a nice addition to my portfolio.

          I think AMZN is still very cheap and should go higher.

          what do you think ?

          ________________________________________

          So in response the “What do you think?” I wrote what I thought above…

          Here’s an update to that response:

          Why only a fool would buy at such a top… after such a large run-up in such a short period of time:

          Again, the stock is extremely over bought… this chart, like the other should ring the alarm bell to warn anyone from buying such an over-priced stock!

          The 6-Sigma (a 99.99966% probability that price would move NOT HIGHER… BUT LOWER or a 6σ probability of 99.9999998027% probability that price would move lower!

          And yet these two fools noted above do not see the relevance of my elicited “What do you think” reply.

          Does any of these fools still think loading the bag at $444.48 was a good idea given today’s big red candle on an up day in the market?

  31. A tout attack on a blog is not easy to detect. The motive is financial gain from attracting clicks for advertising and subscriptions at the perp’s site, and anything else in the way of money extraction that can follow.
    Often the perp is assisted by another one or more anonymous posters and these pseudonyms engage others and give support to the perp. This is designed to draw attention. Giveaways can be newbies arriving within a short time span and their combined strong defense against any non adoring posters or attention competitors. It is difficult to be sure, so just be careful.

  32. William, thank you for your charts. I especially like the dollar chart and your comment about gold always bottoming before the dollar tops. I’ve always felt that was the case but it’s nice to hear it from another source.

    2014 economists and market strategists were unanimous that rates were going higher – so long term treasuries outperformed everything on a risk adjusted basis.

    2015 everybody is unanimous about the dollar strengthening – so i expect the dollar to collapse more than anyone thinks is in the realm of possibilities, and gold, silver, oil and especially the chinese yuan to benefit.

    1. Specie… here’s my chart from March 18th. If interested, I can provide you with an updated near term chart.

      3x leveraged Crude ETN (UWTI) is up 80% since.

        1. No, actually gold precedes moves in commodities… gold and oil can move higher together (or lower) as is often the case. It is just that one outperforms the other swinging the ratio to extremes. It is at these extremes that one can buy a highly leveraged ETF (and as in the example of UWTI’s 80% profit since mid march), to make good profits.

        2. Instead of a stock crash Commodity Inflation may be what is starting. Take a look at the Australian Dollar today. When Crude goes up the USD drops against most currencies and in the current economic environment that means rising multi-national stocks.

          If Crude goes up then so will Ethanol and Corn. The major Grains are setting for major Elliot 3rd waves higher.

  33. Long dax at 11830 small stakes. Target 12100 this time next week. Dax firmly remains a buy the dip market with strong support near 11700 so ill be adding further there if it does get there.

    1. Weak day for the DAX but no doubt buyers will soon step in as the market offers more value than US markets. My year end target still remains 14000 based on the mildly optimistic case the Greeks drag out another year remaining in the Euro.

        1. The trick will be how to trade after Fed minutes Wednesday until early May. Lunar Chord is tied bullish/bearish with seasonals being the tie breaker. Guess I will go long 15 minutes before the Fed minutes and stay long until early May. The second week of May is the first bearish time according to LC.

  34. looks like the BTK is taking out it’s reaction low

    market days don’t get much better than this

    yesterday and so far today

    biowrecks down 2+% while miners up 2+%

  35. This market! Yesterday was a beautiful reversal outside day as well as short and medium term sell signal. So of course the market is up. The IBB topped similarly with a reversal (but not an outside day), opened even lower the next day and turned up. It turned out to be a 1-2 and the sharp sell-off continued a day later and has possibly started a larger 3 after making a larger 2. These straws keep failing me.

  36. I am not buying that short covering rally in gold. I expect it to drift down after FED. Same applies to crude. For SPX, maybe one more high before correction to 1980.
    Final top in stocks in August/September.

  37. The “market conditions” of here and now; not the “market conditions” of a year ago; the USD goes down then large cap stocks go up….

      1. The new “market conditions” is that a higher dollar hurts the multi-nationals foreign revenue. This was brought to the fore front in the recent quarterly reports of many companies. From here, the USD must go down for multi-national’s stocks to go up.

  38. It’s not quite that simple Richard, but a lower $ helps.

    This is a counter trend rally in the Euro imv,
    I thought the Euro was due a short term rebound, as posted,
    as $ sentiment had reached incredibly bullish levels.

    We are still most likely still in the early stages of a multi year
    major $ rally.

  39. two biggest bubbles, biowrecks and dollar, both parabolics, both took out reaction lows today

    given the leverage in the markets, the ramifications should be felt soon

  40. Operators know that for every poster there are on average over 300 viewers that do not post. Higher profile blogs can attract millions. Viewers are looking for free tips that work. Find a free source of such reliable tips, pass these off as your own, give a few out for free and then make your marks pay. This is an exponentially increasing business model, because it is lucrative. The majority of the viewers have this free reliable tip finding scam business as purpose or future intention. It takes degree level forensic psychology education and related practice to detect the pros. But tip giving pros don’t work for free unless they are well retired, middle aged, and just cannot stop themselves. They give freebie reliable tips without realizing that more harm than good will ensue. Unless they are also into forensic psychology.
    Fortunately for this blog, but otherwise for any scamsters there is scant, nay zilch in the way of reliable. You can try to seed some future crops, but that’s about all the hope you got here.

  41. The $ is not a bubble Specie imv,
    very clear reasons why the $ is in demand
    on a multi year basis.

    On IBB I would not go near it,
    however it’s still up nearly 55% on a
    12 month basis and up over 13% YTD.

    If IBB went negative YTD then maybe you can
    begin drawing bearish conclusions for wider US
    equity markets.

  42. How about these names?. at which point should we draw a bearish conclusion? check out after hours on those reporting. NFLX, AMZN were the exception, not the rule.

    $TWTR $WYNN $SSYS $BWLD $GPRO $X all down, CELD ….even aapl after blow out earnings sold off today and had added over $40billion in debt. there is little liquidity in the market. any significant black swan event will create a tremendous down draft.

  43. Scott, with APPL a little like IBB no conclusions
    can be drawn from minor % moves.
    APPL, nearly 60% up on 1 year and 18% YTD.

  44. Market likes symmetry. from the top of the market in 2000 to 2007 was 1987 trading days. another 1987 trading days occurred this week since 2007. in 2000, market tops occurred 60 days apart from Jan 14 – March 10 2000.

    We had a top on March 2nd and we are now marking a second top 30 days later with the FED dance likely to trigger a terminating end diagonal top before the Bradley turn date of May 10th.

    left and right stocks are melting down quickly on poor news. I sold my 128/133 call spreads in aapl for a tidy profit at 133.50 today. added puts spreads to my current position in IWM and SPY out 6-8 weeks. with the fear ratio touching 1.24 VXV/VIX, I anticipate a 5-7% pull back from May 10th-May 29th.

  45. here’s another beauty for today : Home Loan Servicing Solutions, Ltd.
    HLSS. 71mm shares outstanding. Yesterday. $17.00. today…. 67 cents. maybe now that they are delisted, can we consider HLSS bearish? $1.2billion market cap erased overnight

    IMHO, market hasn’t been this dangerous since in nearly a decade maybe since 2000. Pensions funds are severely underfunded. worse than they were after the 2009 bottom despite bond and global stock market run-ups to ATHS

    Chicago will be the next major city to go bankrupt. lots of minor ones in between. The average pension fund in Chicago is funded at less than 40%.

    Liquidity is absent in bonds and stocks, unless of course you take a 20-60% haircut. then you have liquidity.

    Is WYNN in a bear market yet? from over $200 – $116. I anticipate a sell off in may/june, then the buy the dip gang led by Nicolas will nearly retake ATHs before a complete meltdown August-November.

    1. Scott – They held an asset sale and distributed the proceeds to shareholders, approximately $16.613/share. It just didn’t drop 96% in a day.

      “Home Loan Servicing Solutions, Ltd. (“HLSS” or the “Company”) (HLSS) announced today that its Board of Directors has declared a liquidating distribution in the aggregate amount of approximately $1.2 billion or $16.613 per share (the “Distribution Amount”). The Distribution Amount represents the net proceeds received by the Company in connection with the sale of substantially all of the Company’s assets pursuant to the Stock and Asset Purchase Agreement with New Residential Investment Corp. entered into and consummated on April 6, 2015, less a cash reserve in the amount of $50 million.”

  46. Our resident “genius”, pima canyon, comes to the defense of another “genius”, Steve, stating/asking the question,
    _____________________________________________________________
    “eh? that’s not obvious to me. How can you make pronouncements about whether another person understands something without asking them about it first? I don’t see where Steve mentioned anything one way or the other about 6 Sigma, so how can you make presumptions about what Steve knows or doesn’t know. And what relevance does that have to the discussion anyway?

    pima, if the “relevance” is not glaringly obvious to you, I won’t waste my time explaining since you wouldn’t get it anyway.

    ______________________________________________

    Steve replied,

    “Wiser, there is no way you can state with any certainty that the Apr 26 52-week high marks the exact top for AMZN. The stock has gained +50% in just three months and profit taking or a correction should not be unsurprising.”

    Steve seems to be confused as well… if as he states, “profit taking or a correction should not be unsurprising” then why on Earth would our resident contra-indicator, Nicolas, buy at precisely the time that “profit taking would not be surprising” after such a large run-up in price?

    Only a fool would defend someone buying a top after such a large “50% in just three months” advance.

    ________________________________________________________________

    For anyone else, that already understood the relevance of my post, here is what the contra-indicator wrote:

    Nicolas
    April 24, 2015

    I just bought AMZN at 448.48$. It’s a nice addition to my portfolio.

    I think AMZN is still very cheap and should go higher.

    what do you think ?

    ________________________________________

    So in response the “What do you think?” I wrote what I thought above…

    Here’s an update to that response:

    Why only a fool would buy at such a top… after such a large run-up in such a short period of time:

    Again, the stock is extremely over bought… this chart, like the other should ring the alarm bell to warn anyone from buying such an over-priced stock!

    The 6-Sigma (a 99.99966% probability that price would move NOT HIGHER… BUT LOWER or a 6σ probability of 99.9999998027% probability that price would move lower!

    And yet these two fools noted above do not see the relevance of my elicited “What do you think” reply.

    Does any of these fools still think loading the bag at $444.48 was a good idea given today’s big red candle on an up day in the market?

    1. I mean after all… “Where is the relevance?” Just buy AMZN on Friday’s surge in price – just turn a blind eye to history! As I said, we are lucky to have such contra-indicators as they sound the alarm for shorting opportunities and/or going long when they’re dissing over sold value plays such as the gold stocks in early November.

      1. Not to mention the fact that it appears to be the tail of a fifth wave, and that the larger ‘c’ wave, which this high is the tail of, is exactly the same length as the ‘a” wave, or that the major indices seem to have topped, most particularly the Nasdaq, which AMZN is a part of … Nope … can’t say with any amount of certainty … 🙂

        I won’t even get into cycles, cause there seem to be a number of fairly evenly spaced tops in this chart, which is really cool – thanks, William.

        1. Exactamundo Peter!

          Since you commented, the cycle I referred to has to do with the line segments of the Golden Ratio… in this case the sqrt{5}}{2} = 1.6180339887.

          Sqrt{5} = 2.236 or 2.236 year cycle. This is the cycle of the Gold:Oil Ratio that correlates to tops in the ratio and bottoms in Oil. On that long-term chart I posted, there are 14 ratio tops during the period from 1983 to 2015…

        2. Spell checker dropped part of the equation…

          “sqrt{5}}{2} = 1.6180339887” should have read:

  47. “The $ is not a bubble Specie imv,
    very clear reasons why the $ is in demand
    on a multi year basis.”

    Of course one reason that the dollar could be said to be in a bubble is the very crowded (on a historical basis) long trade all with the same expectation that the Fed will taper its 4.5 trillion balance sheet while it raises rates (for the reason that markets are normalizing and the economy is getting stronger)… that despite printing trillions that everyone can hold hands while skipping down fairytale road merrily singing Kumbaya… with no repercussions to be held accountable to.

    The fact that just about everyone and his brother believes this utter nonsense is one of the “surprise” or “disappointment” factors that will act as a catalyst for gold to rise and for the crowded long-dollar trade to fall.

    As soon as these “geniuses” figure out the Fed is trapped (and has been for a long time), that the Fed will punt on its June rate hike expectations just as the did the last FOMC, then the dollar will sell off.

    Meanwhile, we have to patiently wait for these ignoramuses to catch a clue.

  48. The ~$4.5 Trillion FRB Balance Sheet, the fantasy crowd ignores, and to which I refer:

    Climbing up 9 Billion in the last 4 consecutive weeks:

  49. In today’s market action, we saw AAPL fall over a percent after opening at a new all-timer in the wake of its earnings and then reversing to end down over a percent, creating a potential “double top.”

    FB and LNKD both fell over a percent.

    NFLX, GRPN, TSLA, and GOOG all fell less than a percent.

    TWTR was splattered for 18% after its earnings were mistakenly leaked early in the final hour of today’s session, and yes, they lost at the “beat the number” game of lowering the expectations before hand and then releasing a better than expected number afterwards.

    The catalyst for the stock market to decline tomorrow could simply be that it runs out of buyers. After all, just about everyone and his brother are expecting the FOMC statement to be dovish and supportive of higher stock prices.

    My expectation continues to be (as it was for the last FOMC meeting that the Fed would punt on its April rate hike) that it will too on its June rate hike expectation pushing any potential rate hike out to later this year. But the key here is that when too many people have already made this bet in the short run, then it could be a disappointment when there are no fire works to the upside tomorrow in the stock market.

    The S&Ps and Dollar Fantasy crowd appears to be poised to throw a party tomorrow on the expected dovishness…. with so many many bulls leaning long and expecting the Fed to coo tomorrow, this could be a set up for the S&Ps to selloff imo.

  50. As updated from a while ago, after breaking Key Support at 96.32, the dollar has passed the Point of Recognition today… 96.92 becomes critical key resistance for this count to be valid.

    The expectation is that Dollar Bugs will see more painful downside with brief periods of consolidation.

  51. Looks like John’s blog being hijacked.
    Next step for the hijackers is to siphon interest to their place.
    Classic. Who wants to be the next mark?

    1. 300 viewers and the posters on this site are wondering what you are talking about? This is about intellectual exploration pure and simple.

  52. One of the many great joys of this forum is the mutual respect with which participants treat each other. I was therefore quite surprised by William W’s somewhat vitriolic response to Steve and pimaCanyon. Would have been far easier to have explained what you meant by sigma 6 and why that was a ‘near certainty’.

    Equally Peter_ responses to a number of comments included unnecessary, in my opinion, negative personal verbiage.

    Of course it’s John H’s site and he is the final arbiter of ‘whats right’ but I, as a participant, have a small stake and for one would not like to see this deteriorate further.

    Thx

    1. OK P, maybe just for you – you are just a little too close to the unknown to avoid being hit. Friendly words to the innocent would be pause, think a little broader, and otherwise back off when you do not understand what is happening. Bottom line – beware of becoming an innocent victim beyond this blog, because if you become one you would be only one of many before you. Meanwhile let me prod and poke because I am not your potential problem. If you can pause, think a little broader etc.
      PS – but you can tell me if you think I’ve blown my cover.
      PPS – you will find my calling card at the otherwise blank space (bar google scripts if you allow them) at http://barestbodkins.blogspot.com/
      Otherwise have more of your happy days
      I thank you, I thank you
      Good Day

  53. A number of people, including myself,
    called the Euro higher two weeks ago, so not
    sure why some posters appear to be so overexcited.

    For me this is a counter trend move as Euro area macro does not support a higher Euro at this point.

    On the FED, either one symbolic rate rise in 2015
    or they do nothing, that has been my view since
    the beginning of this year – would assume it’s shared
    by many others.

    The looming UK GE is far more exciting than markets
    for me atm, 8 days to the vote!.

    1. Phil I’m in the same camp as far as this being a counter trend on the USD. However William W’s target on one of his charts looks about right to me for the USD Index.

      I’m resident in the UK, although currently back in my birth country until mid June for some ‘granny minding’. However I have reached a point where I’d rather have NO politicians meddling in my affairs.

      Only way the UK election becomes exciting for me is if UKIP end up holding the balance of power then it becomes interesting about which sides want power more than hate them. Hehehe. A bloke can dream eh?

  54. purvez, I am not a UKIP supporter, however Farage
    is the only UK politician who has discussed the deficit
    with a semblance of truth.
    I also support an in/out referendum on EU membership
    and agree with overseas aid being cut while we run such
    a huge budget deficit.

    On defence I would like the UK to cut towards 1% of GDP
    along the lines of Germany, we spend approx 2% currently.
    We need to accept a new reduced role.
    The case for a Trident replacement is also week for me
    as the UK could not make any decision on the potential
    use of nuclear weapons without US say so.

    I would spend more on M15 and M16 budgets to protect
    our population at home.

    One and only politics related post from me – apologies
    about the general off topic nature.

    I am not disputing that WW made a good call btw,
    just highlighting that a number of others posted similar
    thoughts a couple of weeks ago.

    I primarily read John’s blog to hear different views,
    so a variety of different views is interesting.

    1. Phil I agree this is not the venue for UK politics so I’ll finish by saying I don’t support anyone but like Farage’s idea of putting Britain first and getting out of the EU.

      Promise no more UK politics posts here.

  55. Long dax again at 11705. Final top up for the moment. Should be good support at these levels. Expect a rebound to 12000 area shortly. Draghi will have to act quick to stop the appreciation of the Euro or the european recovery will falter even more.

    1. Wow big drop. Completely overdone in my opinion. Picture starting to look less optimistic for the Dax unfortunately. Johns waterfall scenario could be starting but need to see similar sort of action in US indices to confirm

      1. Hope you had a tight stop Krish. I think there is a difference between the Fed and the ECB in the way they are each able to interact with the market. The former appears to have a more direct route to the Stock Market but given the ‘many’ markets in Europe the latter may be more handicapped.

        Just some thoughts.

  56. i’m not sure why i keep getting told that the dollar is not in a bubble.

    I’ve been around long enough to know that biowrecks and the u.s. dollar are both bubbles that will burst leaving a lot of pain and bewilderment.

    the rate of increase, the universal bullishness, the ignorance of fundamentals all confirm that they are bubbles waiting to burst.

    Should be lots of fun.

    1. Specie, I think if you take a long-term look at the dollar you’ll see it’s been far higher than where it is today. So at least from that perspective, it doesn’t appear to be a bubble…in the least.

    2. Agree, i see this as wave 4 (sharp) of the bull run, top at least 107 and can run much further in an extended 5th. FWIW in this world of non-influential anti-dollar sentiment.

  57. Specie, the US remains the best of a bad bunch imv,
    that is why I think the current $ action is a pause in a longer
    term trend.

    People have different views, most of us have also seen multiple
    cycles.

    If you think the $ is a bubble, great stick to that view,
    my view is different.

  58. Hi all ! There’s talk of a QE program coming in China. That should help going forward. I recommend to increase exposure to AAPL and QQQ on this small pullback. There’s nothing to worry about: GDP is weak, Chinese economy looks fragile and earnings have not been great so far. So, all this is great news for stocks as central banks should continue to support the markets.

    1. What about the Dax? It’s looking much weaker than other indices and looks like my bullish argument was maybe overdone. Need a 900 point rise to reach previous highs and I don’t see that happening very quickly after today’s action.

      1. LOL deja vu two weeks later… clearly learned nothing.
        Asking the one which will give you the answer you want to hear, talking about Draghi Greece nonsense, completely ignoring the charts and the pattern buying the “dips”. Your posts are showing the psychology of a newbie with no clue.
        Do you remember what I wrote to you?- obviously not:))
        “Next is strong impulse C lower with target 11400-11200”
        I am trying to help you and I am telling you again learn to read the charts. Since 2011 it was easy but this period is in a few months over and you will get killed if you continue this way.

        1. I have been burnt trying to read the charts in the past. Everytime the charts show a sell signal I follow only to see a huge rally and the signal proven wrong. This time is looks right. what do your charts say after the drop to this area? Must have a retrace before further falls or a full recovery?

      2. this should be only a correction and we should see another higher high… than a huge correction to 10k probably
        as I wrote two weeks ago no need to hurry when you can buy cheaper

    2. “that despite printing trillions that everyone can hold hands while skipping down fairytale road merrily singing Kumbaya… with no repercussions to be held accountable to.” Quote from William Wiser.

      Nicolas, i agree that CB QE and share purchases is game changing and am bullish on SM from here because of the equity for debt system that seems to be in place. Although a short term gold bull, see longer term not so good due to tech innovations making AU more of a commodity.

      This being said with aging demo, falling real incomes with which to buy equities, etc. wouldn’t the only area that makes any sense be EEM FXI PIN where at least they have rising middle class? And how will your thesis stand up if CB become net sellers and no one else is left to buy? Stocks could lose 80% and not be overpriced on historical norms.

    1. Partly at least a Dollar effect, Krish. Plus just an oversold bounce. There does look to be another leg down…..all as per EW of course.

      1. Looks like. I would expect US indices to print new highs quite soon if dollar weakness continues. If it reverses we should get a rally in European indices.

  59. i hope you’re keeping track of the timestamps on these posts.

    i think you nailed the exact top of Crapple just like you did for IBB

    or the bottom for gold for that matter

    and don’t try to tell me that you’re serious about these posts

    i know you are being facetious and trying to fool and entertain everyone

    you’re timing is amazing

    I’ve never had so much fun reading posts in a forum

  60. Looks like market setting up for run to another ATH beginning with Fed dovish statement. This should not last long and sell off will begin next week.

      1. geno, Valley, I would like to propose the following alternative count since the late Feb high:

        3 waver down to 11/12 Mar – wA
        3 waver up to 23 Mar – wa of wB
        3 waver down to 26 Mar – wb of wB
        5 waver up to 27 Apr – wc of wB tto complete an expanded flat.

        So now we are starting wC down which should be a 5 waver. My target is at least 11/12 Mar low but probably a bit lower. At that point we re-evaluate. I have a bigger down wave count too

        1. Yeah, I would look for the .618 extension for the C wave though. SP-500 like the 3 wave to extend, not equal.

        2. I have zero brain cells for EW. Sounds right. Lot of room on downside in next few weeks imo. Worried today could be a three day sell off of some size if Fed disappoints. Worried because I will probably go long at the announcement based upon seasonal patterns.

  61. It is starting to look like Delta stocks L-2 will be a high instead of a low this October (no Inversion). The Dollar down until then and energy up to then means rising stocks until then given current “market conditions”. Note that the USD was recently at all time greatest net shorts by Commercials and, thereby, at all time greatest net longs of foreign currencies.

  62. Hi Valley ! Yes, this is my argument. Central banks directly buying stocks and companies borrowing at 0% to buy back their shares is really a game changer.
    Of course, if central banks begin to raise rates and stop buying assets, everything will go down quickly.
    I’ve been a big bear on gold but to be honest I don’t know what to think anymore. Central banks could short gold if it gets too high, but at the same time if commodities rebound gold should go along with the ride.
    regards

    1. Nicolas, Newt was right about you all the time. You are one very ‘clever’ dude.

      Your ‘apparent’ CBs wins all stance was ‘correct’ for its time and place but the fact that you understand it’s ability to change moves you from ‘one tract mind’ to ‘clever’ in a single swoop.

      I’m about to start paying more attention to your posts. Not saying will follow everything you say but certainly much more attention.

      🙂

  63. Krish, the DAX needs to be viewed within the context of
    the Euro surely.
    ECB QE is tiny within the context of Euro area QE,
    delivering a lower Euro was the rational.

  64. This Northern Hemisphere Summer could be one of Commodity Inflation with stock sector rotation to commodities and large cap stocks (multi-nationals) as the Dollar falls. This would support a Rising Wedge for US major stock indexes to this Fall.

    1. Today, Sun Spot numbers are rapidly going to Zero. With QEs being the “gift that keeps on giving” it may be the final “gift” of QEs to Commodities this Summer as the final move up in major stock indexes to “The Top” and crash to follow.

      1. Right hear and now what is the least expected? The ATH in stocks and a crash? No. What is “least expected” is Commodity Inflation.

        Today, Crude is breaking out to the upside of its recent two week consolation.

        When the stocks crash happens it will include a commodity crash as well. Commodities need to be “set up” for the crash and I don’t mean Crude only.

        1. I buy this premise. Peak June, Nadir August, New Peak October. Venus Far East June, Venus Conjunct August, Venus Far West October.

  65. On the US indices side, there is no real technical damage so far. Certainly there has been some institutional advice to get out of Euro area bonds today as well as some disappointing earnings (Atlas Copco and Commerzbank have really dumped today) and the DAX has suffered greatly and fallen through minor resistance levels aplenty. The question re the DAX is that due to the meteroic rise, there aren’t many places where I would look for strong resistance now unless you look at the low of 16th Dec. However, The fibs from 16th Dec low to 12th Apr high suggest that we are somewhere between the 38.2 and the 50 (11208ish and 10826ish respectively) retracement. In my opinion we have seen geographical rotation quite often (or seemingly geo rotation) so if it is a case of that perhaps money from Europe is going somewhere else for the time being.US holding up quite well so far, wonder if they may be benefactors? Having missed the DAX drop partially due to being away, but also because of the number of times we have seen such ugly candles in the past few months without any follow throughmade me not take the trade – I am largely on the sidelines except the GDX long and a couple of US stock shorts that are also doing well.

    Will be doing a lot of work tonight to catch up on as many chart setups as I can and will stay up to see the Asia opens for some clues….

    I am still bullish DAX and so on for the time being , but the dust needs to settle a bit before I can make some decisions. IWM looks like it could test 120 or a bit lower, but I need to do some more work before I commit.

    Be careful out there.
    J

    1. Well said jegersmart. I also see what you pointed out that there is no technical damage on US indices, up to this point. The selling pressure has been on and off, neutralized by the BTFD crowd.

      So many folks are calling for an imminent steep decline tomorrow Thursday. While it is true that all markets look vulnerable, the imminent decline call could be a few weeks too early. A pullback is more likely imv.

      I think the IWM is providing the best signals for all indices so far. The support around 123 is still holding for now. A strong move over 126 would confirm the heart of the 3rd wave taking it to the next target around 132. The initial confirmation for that next larger rally for IWM would be 5 wave up, followed by a corrective 3 wave pullback, with follow through over the high of the initial 5 wave move up.

      Tomorrow will bring some answers. Bears need a strong follow through while bulls need a solid bounce. It is time to be extremely cautious for both bulls and bears.

  66. How about a “second chance” top in Crude that times in with the “The Top” in stocks for both to crash together?

    1. Are the recent reversals and rallies of the Russian Rubble and Brazilian Real pointing towards a Commodity Bull Market this Summer?

      1. It could also be said that the Australian Dollar is the “leader of the pack” in that it has led the currencies and Crude higher.

      2. Over lay Dr. Copper with the Russian Rubble, Brazilian Real, and Australian Dollar. Dr. Copper made its low within days of the Russian Rubble making its low and both were in late January. Include Crude and try to convince yourself that a Bull Market in Commodities won’t happen this Summer. These charts might be something that John should cover this weekend.

  67. geno0010, great call yesterday on those puts. I saw your chart that we are still on full buy mode in SPX. Seen your target. Are you planning to buy or sell, where is the tipping pt? Thanks

    1. Zenyatta – The Swing Trend Indicator closed today on Tentative Sell and gave a sell trigger. The last time this occurred was on Friday, April 17th and the market moved up 20 pts. the following Monday negating the signal.

      I will not HOLD SHORT until the STI is on FULL SELL. If it goes on full sell I would hold short with a 2000 target.

  68. For the people here bathing in ignorance that still can’t put two and two together… perhaps a seemingly vitriolic chart to shatter their fantasy bubbles…

    The dollar is going down… commodities have bottomed.

    Gold and gold stocks bottomed last November. The sooner such air heads realize it, the sooner they can begin to prosper. Perhaps it will take the “hundredth monkey” before the tribe has their epiphany – on that I will not hold my breath.

    Meanwhile look forward to the host’s excellent reports and the others who are doing a fine job of sharing their insights.

    1. William, what a great chart. Thank you. Please share as often as you feel.

      When i remember the giddiness about tech stocks in 1999, the shock about stocks in october of 2008, the fear in march of 2009 i try to guage the degree to which fear and greed swing at times.

      when i visit a fantastic site like this hosted by an intelligent, experienced investor with a currently bearish bias, and i see the mindless boorish bullishness posts, i can’t figure out what they are doing here in the first place and secondly i figure that the subsequent decline will have to be more significant than any in the past just to correct the excesses that give them the confidence to feel that way.

      what a horrible sentence, i’ll try to keep my mouth shut and just watch. sorry

      1. Thank you Specie for appreciating my “direct” posts to the anonymous posters using fictitious names on this board. However, I will try to tone it down as even people behind anonymous names can have thin skins.

        If played wisely, there is a TREMENDOUS opportunity being presented before our very feet to gain substantial profits going forward.

        I’m not here to tell anyone what to do with those profits… for myself, it continues to be giving most of it away helping others – I’ve been through this drill several times before.

        Anyway, I’m only here because I find John Hampson’s views and commentary very worthwhile to read. His writings remind me of the caliber of posters back in the late 90s at the CSU Long Waves forum. A few other posters are very good as well. But most others I don’t bother to read.

        I will certainly refrain from posting if John requests if I’m offending the fantasy bubble crowd.

      1. Yes… I agree. I really do believe that commodities have bottomed (led by gold) and that the dollar has topped. Doing so would be consistent with the past (gold bottoming before the dollar topping). Now we ride this monster up into 2022 with lots of jolting surges and falls – think roller coaster. The fall is when gold gets its wings.

        1. Hmm … I’m with you on most of your projections, but not on this one, I guess. I don’t think gold has bottomed and expect it to eventually get close to its previous 4th, around $700.I think we’re in a countertrend move right now (a second wave of some degree(?).

          Likewise, I don’t yet see a fifth wave down in oil and I’m expecting close to a flat, projecting to the previous low around $33 in 2008. Dollar, of course should mirror the euro and you projected the euro (I think) to hit 1.14, which I agree with (actually I have a measured move to just under 1.15 and then a reverse )—again, previous 4ths.

          I think your scenario is the eventual one, but I don’t think it’s that easy … yet. Do I read you wrong?

  69. WW, I always found that abusing people was never a good way to get your point across…..shoving your view down throats…..also not good.

    I hear you, I happen to agree with a lot of what you are saying in terms of this last post but I feel like you have issues…..I mean who would behave like this to a bunch of strangers on the internet? Does it really matter so much…?

    w…t……f…..

    J

    1. jegersmart… Then don’t.

      as far as my direct approach – there’s a lot a bad info being bandied about that will lose people a lot of money. If not real money, then a huge opportunity loss of money.

      Please skip my posts – I encourage you to ignore as I do the same. thanks.

  70. Made 1/3% today buying SPXL on dip, and selling back after Fed announcement. In cash, tomorrow will bring…tomorrow is equatorial crossing hi volatility day, if market tanks it could be big red candle (3 days post apogee Wednesday are down on average .2%). Will definitely go short if price is gap down at open and continues that direction past first half hour.

      1. According to Maxcherry:

        “since Oct 15th Thurs has been up 72% of the time gaining about 12%, the SPX has gained about 12.5% since Oct 15th”

        He’s my go-to for seasonals, etc.

  71. For the few here that are unable to think and relate – Question:
    Without the hope of higher earnings in the future, why should Joe Bag Holder want to pay so much for stocks today?

    Answer:
    Everyone has a threshold of the amount of debt they can carry. This includes state and federal governments. The S&P is trading at 27 times the average inflation-adjusted earnings of the previous 10 years. This indicates that the stock market is very over-bought. Compare this to something like gold stocks that are extremely over-sold and then behold the incredible opportunity… the first, an opportunity to short, the latter to be long.

    All the hundredth monkey has to do is understand a little history – for example read up on where stock market valuations were just before the 1929 crash. Is that so difficult? To compare, then think, then relate – connect a couple dots? Just think of a big bunch of bananas that you could have if you invested wisely instead of like a fool.

    For the few here that are unable to think and relate, to view cycles, history, etc., then at least understand that the stock market will eventually look ahead to discount what it sees. What will it see? Let’s keep this very simple for our “market challenged” friends – if uh duh… stock prices have gone up because interest rates have gone down, uh… duh… what will they do next when interest rates are ALREADY DOWN near all-time lows? Ok, now that we’ve reached that branch, then ask yourselves, “How much lower can interest rates go?” Can I get a grunt or two of acknowledgment?

    So if the stock market is a forward discounting mechanism, then ask yourself where will the future money come from to drive stock earnings higher, future money that no one has earned, that no one has saved? Will it continue coming from foreign CBs of countries with trade surpluses to purchase our treasury debt? No, to the detriment of stocks and bonds, anyone who has been paying attention would know that this source of credit funding has been in decline… that world trade has slowed considerably.

    Did not any of these fools learn anything from the 2008 financial credit debacle? Do we still have the same tools at our disposable to rapidly and significantly drop rates now that we are near the big ZERO? Or add multi-trillions more to the balance sheet that has already soared from $800 billion to $4.5 trillion? Does not one of these fools realize that the economy is not getting stronger but has been stagnating and will continue to do so under the heavy burden of the growing, unsustainable debt levels?

    Hopefully the hundreth monkey with his eye on the prize will catch a clue that the Fed is quickly running out of options to keep markets liquid. Budget deficits to service the debts and run the country will continue syphoning off much needed money to keep markets liquid. US tax revenue is currently giving the clueless ones a false confidence as once this dries up, the second half GDP numbers will not look too good. Qtr 1 & 2 should be a wake up call, but clueless ones are still stuck on stupid “weather related”.

    QE from China, Japan and Europe will be minimal as US markets are perceived as over-bought and treasuries viewed as Old Maids cards. Liquidity will continue to dry up this year. The same old contra-indicators have marked the bottom in gold / top in the dollar. All I can do is shake my head and enjoy the wildlife.

    1. Dear William Wiser,

      You are talking a very forceful game here. But it’s absolutely nothing new. This is the same argument that has been wrong every step of the way up for the last 2 years.

      Everybody knows this argument. It’s logical. And “correct”. Except for one tiny problem: the market itself doesn’t agree.

      Maybe this market doesn’t top until you throw in the towel on your dogmatic stance.

      Maybe that is the best use of this board. When the William Wiser’s no longer come around banging this drum maybe the market will truly be ready to dump.

      What is that level? 100% higher from here? Who knows? Could be.

  72. Jegersmart – Did my posts about buying SPY puts on Monday and buying BWLD puts into earnings contain enough information for you? I know you were saying I shouldn’t just say buy puts, etc.

      1. Thanks, I’ll try to include more of my analysis in the posts in the future as to why I’m taking the position. People can probably learn from that rather than me just saying buy/sell.

        1. geno, it’s your analysis that would be of most interest to me and hopefully others here. Thx.

  73. For the longer term view of stocks… I watch a 17-year cycle of financial corrections/crashes… as well, the 32-33 week cycle – as per Peter’s recent chart analysis, the current S&Ps top should be arriving just about now (in the period from April 27 to May 8, 2015).

    This cycle has been a force for many years (recently saw 32-week lows in Nov. 2012, June 2013, Feb. 2014, a high in Sept. 2015 and the current high being put in now.

    As John recently explained, various indices are/will diverge and set lower peaks (i.e., maintaining their previous highs (stretching from late November into early March) as their ultimate highs.

    The next phase is leading into May 4th – 8th cycle lows… The topping process remains gradual (keeps the tribe bewildered), a process of rolling over to the downside.

    Then we have the 66-week cycle (partitioned into 16-17 weeks periods) which has been targeting early May as well. (All one has to do is pull up a chart going back to April 2009 to see how this cycle has dominated. I know, beyond the scope of “the tribe” that are bullish). For one example, using a chart of the Nasdaq 100, pay attention to the sequence of lows in August 2011, November 2012 & February 2014. These projected a subsequent high for early May 2015 (the midpoint of which projected an intermediate high for Sept 15th to 19th, 2014). By the way, that also perfectly aligned with the 17-year cycle referred to above that begins now and extends into late Sept 2015.

    If history remains our guide, the early stages of a stock market reversal is expected to be very gradual (as for example the DJ Transports and DJ Composite shows). Next, the momentum to the downside will start to pick up and shift into higher gear.

    Tick tock… that time has come. John Hampson is doing an excellent job of shining the light for all to see.

      1. Coming from you Peter (especially after seeing your work)… a much appreciated and valued complement! Thank you.

      1. Here are a couple of up-to-date cycles charts on SPY. Black line is price data and red line is cycle. The first chart (hope this works as I’m trying tinypic for the first time) is a compilation of all the valid cycles (25) that our software program finds for SPY. The data is up to April 28.
        [IMG]http://i59.tinypic.com/345eruh.jpg[/IMG]

        The second chart is a compilation of two cycles (a 31.10 and 35.90 trading days) and so you can see a top now going down into about May 10 (approx.) which I think William was alluding to – in terms of dates, not cycles. He identified some longer cycles, but they tend to be harmonic, so all should be good.
        [IMG]http://i58.tinypic.com/5cakbs.jpg[/IMG]

        Sorry William for jumping in but I really wanted to try tinypic for posting these directly, so this my excuse 🙂

        1. Peter T, try just entering the URLs without the [IMG] tags on either side. I suspect that will work.

  74. John Hampson’s post’s are humble, reasoned
    and draw together multiple data points to suggest
    probability, John never claims certainty.

  75. William Wiser: “jegersmart… Then don’t.”

    Sorry…..don’t what….? Don’t put up with your belligerence that prevents your message from being heard as clearly as if you were not acting like a d**k?

    Well, that’s what I am doing. You have some good information and some that I am in agreement with. I am just telling you that acting like a p***k on the internet is hurting the information and theories you have.

    I am telling you because I think you have something to say and worth hearing. If I didn’t I would just ignore you.

    DBAD

    J

  76. WW,
    If there are no non banking investors adding net new capital to markets and all of the current gains are due to CB ZIRP QE corporate buy backs and CB direct asset purchases which can be done at a fiat rate, then market direction is not so much a function of cycles or public mood or economic conditions but of CB decisions. So, the market direction is most likely a function of central planning and the desired aims is most likely the global integration of capital and productive assets to ensure greater efficiency in the adaptation of technological transformation of economic activity (faster, cheaper, stronger, lighter) and the carrot for this continuous improvement is the promise of instant riches for those who adapt, create, or adopt the best practices at the soonest moment. Since the large and mid cap companies worldwide are the ones who will be integrating the new tech: robots, ai, materials sciences, med/tech, transport (drones), and they largely reward their actors and owners with stock as a mode of incentive, having a market downturn not good idea. Most likely, market will grind higher with constant price inflation that matches or exceeds market performance resulting in much higher equity prices and cost of living. There are no constraints on how many shares can be purchased by fiat, therefore there is no limit on how high the share price relative to earnings can go. As long as the price of shelter food entertainment education and transport rise in tandem with equity prices there is no real gain in the equity prices. This rewards innovation at the expense of consumption which is the goal.

    As far as gold, it may rise if USD falls but when the global futures derivative market is USD based and it is somewhat in its infancy, doubt the casino will be changing chips so soon. Gold may be much more available in the earths crust with new “digital mining” or ocean mud tech or deep core mining or microwave crystaline gold exudate techniques. I like gold as a short term trend trade only and think in the new scheme of things is may be viewed as a quaint relic of the pre tech age. “What were they thinking” paying money for that yellow metal? Given the meme of gold as money this may take decades but could happen sooner.

  77. Here are a couple of up-to-date cycles charts on SPY. Black line is price data and red line is cycle. The first chart (hope this works as I’m trying tinypic for the first time) is a compilation of all the valid cycles (25) that our software program finds for SPY. The data is up to April 28.

    The second chart is a compilation of two cycles (a 31.10 and 35.90 trading days) and so you can see a top now going down into about May 10 (approx.) which I think William was alluding to – in terms of dates, not cycles. He identified some longer cycles, but they tend to be harmonic, so all should be good.

    Sorry William for jumping in but I really wanted to try tinypic for posting these directly, so this my excuse 🙂

  78. Comments:

    In the above chart, the upper blue trend line of the rising wedge has been clearly breached… a bullish indication.

    In the chart below, the LT trend line resistance on log scale is also being tested a 4th time (which technical analysts know as a potential “Rule of 4” break-out to the upside.

    The chart suggests we would not be surprised to see a small dip in the next day or two to test the 10-EMA at least, and possibly ping off a rising 20-DMA right around the 20.00 level.

    Short term Key resistance is at 21.48
    Short term Support at 19.36 and then 18.17

  79. “If there are no non banking investors adding net new capital to markets and all of the current gains are due to CB ZIRP QE corporate buy backs and CB direct asset purchases which can be done at a fiat rate, then market direction is not so much a function of cycles or public mood or economic conditions but of CB decisions….”

    So my first question is what are your policy expectations for the ECB, IMF and World Bank going forward? (Since the Euro currency is 60% of the USD Index).

    1. For starters, you seem to want to argue about something… I don’t care to waste my time. You chastise me for being rude, and yet in the same breath characterize me as a “d**k”. I’m here to share 30 years of investment experience that has made me a tonne of money. Why should I with you? Can you answer that?

  80. Possible Gold count:

    Perhaps reasonable to count 5 waves up from 1175.12. So that would possibly suggest a corrective decline for another day or two.

    A corrective move down could (doesn’t necessarily have to) reach back to the 61.8% fibonacci at $1190… such a retracement would also be the previous break-out point.

    Short term Key Kesistance: $1224, $1307

    https://www.anony.ws/image/DrXa

  81. As far as solar activity with the sunspot number plummeting toward zero today – not looking so good for the extremely leveraged speculators soon to be bag holders.

    For such vacuous minds, I would recommend a few beginner books with lots of big pictures on the Austrian School of Economics as to how such policies will ultimately end.

  82. Oh well…..you can’t help people……..won’t read, won’t understand. I guess if WW needs to talk down to everyone in order to share his “30 year experience” with a bunch of anonymous internet posters then I hope I don’t turn into that in the next 10 years…..

    Good luck all.

    J

    1. jegersmart – don’t leave on my account. I was “talking down” to a group of posters that in my opinion, are steering potential “gullibles” over a cliff. The fact I have over 30 years (actually since 1980 makes it almost 35 years of trading experience) my seem like a boast, but is a fact. It’s just that I don’t care who believes it or doesn’t. Yes, aside from the host and a few others, most are anonymous and should’t lose any sleep being told that they are wrong or just don’t get it.

      Anyway, sorry to have stepped on your ego. I’ll continue to read John’s commentary, but will otherwise move along. cheers

  83. Peter Temple – You can copy/paste the link and it works fine, thanks for the chart. Lunar weakness should be seen until May 10th or so also, so you have that on your side. I don’t know if Tinypic gives an embed link, if they do, that may work. Good luck.

  84. “So my first question (to Valley) is what are your policy expectations for the ECB, IMF and World Bank going forward? (Since the Euro currency is 60% of the USD Index).”

    Actually didn’t expect an answer from him so will fill in a few gaps to shake the tree…

    On the subject of the Euro Fx, we have everyone and his brother short (aka the “dumb money”) while the commercials are net long at historic levels… this condition has been present since last fall.

    However one can see that this same crowd of dumb money was short the dollar last May never suspecting it was about time for a big leg up.

    Today, we have the same dumb money voicing their opinions that the macro-conditions don’t warrant an advance in the Euro… that any correction in the dollar is just temporary before heading to much higher levels.

    This is very flawed thinking and will cost these “market challenged” individuals on this site a wad of cash from their pockets. These fools are just showing their ignorance and will have to learn the hard way it appears. (Just like our contra-indicator Nicolas and his stuffing his bag of AMZN at the top).

    Anyway, markets are fluid and what goes up, can and will sometimes go back down.

    (to be continued as it seems I can only upload one chart at a time).

    1. Can’t argue with you on currencies because I know nothing about them. I have heard that since the USD is the chip used in the global derivatives casino that it has years of increased use.

  85. WW, a vacuous mind is better than a mind occupied with wrong information. An open minded beginner who is given the best information and follows it will do as well as the expert. The 100th monkey should be saluted for innovating.

    1. Review the hundredth monkey theory… has nothing to do with the hundredth “innovating”. Has to do with a collective recognition of a fact.

      1. We are splitting hairs. The 100th monkey learns a skill and thereby transforms the rest of the tribe of monkeys. That to me is the the credit of the 100th monkey.

  86. In my other life I put it this way
    ”Put the roof before the roofer and all is well/
    Put the roofer before the roof and we’re all in hell”

    I have seen a number of trading forums self destruct
    when traders take themselves more seriously than the trading itself.
    I hope that does not happen here.

  87. This second chart shows one of the concerns of the ECB… most here are convinced of deflation as one would expect from their Keynesian slant on how economies work. But what the ECB is worried about lately is creeping price inflation as a result of there monetary inflation that has transpired.

    With Spanish government bond yields plummeting towards zero since late 2012, their real yoy M1 rate has soared from significantly negative to 15%.

    For the “head scratchers” among us, this was a direct consequence of the sharp devaluation in the Euro and the rapid acceleration in economic activity…

    I know, I’ve probably already lost the Dollar Bugs as this simple explanation proves to be over their heads… but just for kicks, this is an indication that price inflation dynamics in the Eurozone are kicking in… of course this will surprise the “geniuses” among us, just as they were surprised when the opposite happened last May…. another cycle involved, but I’ll skip that for now.

    The simple dots these “market challenged” individuals have to connect is to remember that the only justification for ECB sovereign bond purchases was the fact that inflation expectations had become “de-anchored”.

    Now juxtapose this fact with the dollar rising on the promise of rate hikes, contracting the balance sheet all because a stronger economy was expected, etc… and once these “dollar bug” ignoramuses figure out the obvious, that the Fed is trapped and will not be raising rates or contracting the balance sheet any time soon, then watch out! These mindless nitwits will run for the exits and the dollar will head back down. As well, as the stock market rolls over, the dollar will too.

    Obviously, for anyone with a wit of sense understands), this chart is projecting inflationary pressures…. pressures not lost on the ECB. This means simply that the side opposed to QE will gain the upper hand. As well, the prospect of negative bond yields does not bode well for more QE as our contra-indicators are expecting.

    Once “tapering” is on the table, the Euro will sprout wings again. Then these geniuses can connect the next few dots of what tapering would do. I’ll leave it at that for now…

    1. Good summary WW. Thanks for that info.. By the way, I don’t think you can argue that Nicolas has been right in his assessment of the markets for the last few months. You say he is a bag holder, I say he is savvy, sees trends and reacts correctly. He is pragmatic adjusting his view according to price action.

      1. Yup, he’s done well. His trading style differs from mine however. I like to catch turns up and down, you know, swing trade. Nicolas just likes to tell you buying was right, which it has been for the last 6 years.

        1. Lol it’s not real savvy when that investor continues beating the drum telling everyone to short a sector that is “clearly” bottoming and has in many instances, in contrast to his prognostications, made exceptinal gains.
          Whilst over the last 6 months those sectors that he has been pushing have gone……well mostly “sideways”!

          I seriously must have my head upside down and inside out!!!……….happy to be and stay a true contrarian.

          http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USERX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p53740616114

      2. “Nicolas has been right in his assessment of the markets for the last few months. You say he is a bag holder, I say he is savvy, sees trends and reacts correctly. He is pragmatic adjusting his view according to price action.”

        So please explain to me Valley, what is his exit plan on AMZN or does he have one? He did not indicate one… which is a sign of a rank amateur. Anyone that “adjusts his views” should have adjusted it by now… very poor timing imo.

        As well, there is always someone who marks the exact top… I have seen it many times, and that person, a contra-indicator, usually boasts his trade after such a large move up – in this case AMZN’s surge last Friday. Such “bag holders” manically chase surges having no idea they are being sold what the “smart money” is dumping. Then other members of the bag holding crowd commend them.

        Again, it’s all good as such people ring the bell at tops… thank you!

        So far the stock has plunged about 6.5%.

        1. AMZN is a growth stock. Growth stocks rise and fall more than benchmark. Of course it has dropped more than the overall market. If the market resumes uptrend, AMZN may go up much more. To base an assumption on a few days is not useful. And to assume someone is unintelligent because they don’t conform to your opinion based upon a flawed assumption is hubris. No one knows the future of AMZN or the benchmark or other markets with exact precision. Your guess is that we are a top and that is sensible based upon historic metrics. The problem is that those metrics did not have the CB involved directly in equity purchases or indirectly by loans to have share buy backs.

  88. WW almost sounds like this guy – i love it

    http://ponziworld.blogspot.com/

    “The stock market’s worst case scenario just arrived –
    The economy is weakening but the Fed is trapped by their fake recovery meme, leaving the door open to rate hikes. Which means that stock market dopium seekers have to deal with collapsing profits AND reduced liquidity flows. Right on schedule, dopium addicts are clamoring for more printed money. Because in the Idiocracy, an economy devoid of jobs is a fair price to pay for ultimately worthless dollars.”

  89. Like I said, this blog has been hijacked in classic manner.
    and the motive is….
    well it isn’t me so it must be you lot – sitting ducks

  90. Peter,

    I think you are underestimating the type of investors
    who read this site, most of whom will have experienced
    multiple cycles and are not looking for tips or the next
    big thing, they come here to read a hopefully polite exchange
    of views and look at John’s work.

    It is JH’s blog and I assume he can stop someone
    posting here if he sees fit.

    I would think a good deal of people who read solarcycles
    just stick to JH’s analysis and do not even bother with
    the comments section.
    Many of those that do probably just skim read comments
    rather than hanging on peoples every word.

    1. Are you with the postings or blinkered?
      Do you have any awareness of the human psyche beyond your own narrow interests?
      If you are unqualified then be honest, first with yourself.
      Because honesty is indeed the best policy, and hiding behind a facade of honesty is what I am interested in.
      But to uncover a professional dishonest is not easy.
      Once you also admit that to yourself you are beginning to see my light.
      And then decide what you wish to defend.

  91. Wiser, there is no argument from me with AMZN about it possibly correcting or selling off after a massive gap up due to recent quarterly earnings news. My beef was your statement about this is a “six-sigma” event that “guarantees” $452 is/was going to be the absolute ATH moving forward. There is absolutely no certainty that you can guarantee this.

    From my own analysis of SPX and NDX, generally speaking, is that the bull market is not dead and in fact has much further to go both in time duration and price appreciation. I do not need folks to agree with me on this view nor do I require mass consensus to support my opinion. For those who read my comments over the past year, I have already given numerous reasons for believing in such a view.

    So if SPX and NDX is “expected” to go higher (i.e. to new ATH’s) then obviously this requires market leading stocks to also surge to new ATH’s too. Thus, the reason why I disagree with your assessment of $452 being the absolute ceiling on AMZN.

    I do not really follow AMZN stock but I do use their service occasionally as a typical consumer. You might or might not be aware that they are working towards deploying same day delivery of goods utilizing drones. Just imagine the cost savings on such cheap delivery relative to regular courier service multiplied over thousands of orders that now flow directly to the bottom line (if they could pull it off). I also understand they are deploying or rolling out more local customer pick up depot stores as delivery options. Just bulk shipping hundreds of individual orders instead to just one shipment to one location on a daily basis results in tremendous cost savings along with providing higher customer satisfaction.

    This might seem uneventful to many people but I understand AMZN operates presently on razor thin margins, so potentially being able to save several dollars on cheaper shipping for an order makes a significant difference to the bottom line. I am not an AMZN pumper but clearly SOMETHING has changed since the start of 2015 after the stock had consolidated sideways for the entire 2014 year.

    1. Good points Steve… an all time high – no. But a time to buy the stock? Absolutely not.. that was my point. As far as a longer term top? my opinion is based on other factors some of which I have discussed (cycles affecting the broad markets, etc) , but I defer to the arguments that John Hanson makes in his analysis.

  92. Closed DAX longs. Situation looking far from bullish. Not sure how far this correction will go now that quite a few supports have been broken. Target still remains 14,000 for year end so will be looking to re-enter when things have settled down. Knowing my luck we will probably bounce now!

  93. It s not about ego WW, it is about wanting to get you heard. I don’t think you read what I said many times, no reason to start now?

    Who said anything about leaving?

    J

    1. Well then let’s agree to disagree on that one. My apologies to the Jegersmart family. But I will call it like I see it.

  94. Dr. Copper just broke out to the upside. This is “why”, recently, Commercials were at all time net longs of foreign currencies (non-USD). It is not that they expect an American economic decline but, rather, they are expecting the World economy to recover this northern hemisphere Summer.

    Taking the position that the all time net high shorts of the USD, by Commercials, was a sign of an imminent American economic decline was narrow minded as there are two sides to every coin. The all time net high shorts of the USD meant, also, an all time net high longs of non-USD currencies too. Dr. Copper is pointing towards which one is the correct view for trading purposes.

    1. From now until Fall it is “pedal to the metal” for the World economy.

      What if the Herd decides not to spend its gasoline savings on more consumer junk but on equities instead?

      1. Where will the Liquidity come from that propels stocks higher to this Fall? From the Herd spending their gasoline savings on stocks and their retirement accounts instead of more consumer junk. Demographics points towards this probability.

      1. The smackdown of precious metals during NY hours is nothing short of a raid. Any thoughts on that William Wiser and Allan?

        1. Be back up before you blink. Jobs data is trumped by GDP, soon the idiots will wake up and realise that US interest rates aren’t going anywhere…..relax

        2. As non-USD currencies go up, Gold goes down. As non-US stocks go up, Gold goes way, way down. Amazing as it may seem, as the USD goes down Gold goes down faster (in this Summer’s “market conditions).

        3. Once again investors are completely hoodwinked into studying currencies when it comes to gold. It happens EVERY single time.
          Forget the currencies. Currencies DON’T drive gold!

    1. I am going to report you to P (a little)
      Are you related to purvez or what?
      How can you be allowed to make a prediction without a full explanation fully understandable to all that choose to be non-conversant, whilst I get hauled all over the blog for such imperialistic bad behavior?
      I thank you, I think
      Good day

  95. In the past two days both Crude and Copper have broken out to the upside of their recent consolidations. This points towards the World economy recovering this Summer as does the recent all time net longs of non-USD currencies by the Commercials. Instead of an American economic collapse this Summer, America is providing the springboard for World economies to recover.

    Allan: It is looking more and more that Delta’s stocks L-2 will be a high that brings in its SL-6 as a high and not as lows that I think Ron Rosen expects. Oh my all those pesky “inversions”.

  96. Not only has Copper exploded to the upside, today, but so has Natural Gas. Both are “industrials”. The US and World economies are going to recover this Summer. The US first quarter bad GDP was caused by the weather just like last year.

    1. Want more “proof” that a Commodity Bull Market is starting up? Take a look at the recent falling (30 year) T-Bond futures.

  97. From their January heights, isn’t the Elliot wave counts of American treasuries that they are headed down in 3rd waves? Doesn’t that mean two possibilities of either an American government collapse/default –OR– a major Bull Market in Commodities is starting. So which is it?

  98. Take a look at the currencies today. “If” you believe that a Bull market in Commodities is starting then today is a BTFD day for the Australian and Canadian Dollars. Note that the Euro is up strongly while the Pound is down (as I write this).

    1. Several days ago the Australian Dollar “exploded” above its 100 day sma. Today, it looks like that it has fallen back to “test” the 100 day sma. Guess what happens if that “test” holds.

      1. It would behoove Traders to not only take a look at the Australian Dollar and its 100 day simply moving average but to also take a look at the Canadian Dollar and its 100 day sma in recent days.

  99. I am actually over the moon that gold keeps geting bashed whilst the gold stocks continue to defy by not collapsing but instead looking stronger and stonger each time gold rebounds, because guess what?……….It happens every single time exactly the same way when gold and silver are bottoming long term and has done for as long as I can remember….all the way back to the 70’s

    1. Delta stocks L-2 as a high and Gold L-1 as a low (both due the exact same time as shown by your link to Ron Rosen (and exactly opposite of his expected wave count too)). For the Summer I think that some of the best “trades” will be to BTFDs of the Commodity Currencies like the Australian and Canadian Dollars.

  100. Stock shorts beware: Several weeks ago the DOW was held up by, and making Daily Candle Stick Tails at, its 100 day simple moving average. In the past two weeks it has been doing the same at its 50 day sma. It seems to me that the odds are rising that the DOW will rally up to new ATHs –soon.

    1. According to ST Almanac: tomorrow has a 71% chance of closing higher than todays closing price. One of the highest % of any trading day. Same % for QQQ, SPY, and DOW.

    2. Richard I, I’m getting a bit dizzy by what you are expecting. Some of your posts say that the Dollar and the Stock Market are about to head lower. Yet your above posts says that we should be expecting a new ATH in the Dow.

      Am I just confusing time scales here? It’s quite possible with my 2 brain cell limitation.

      Please may I ask for clarification. Thx.

      1. This is the Inversion Window of the second most powerful “wave” count of Delta. It can go either way and quickly. If it tops out in May (with a Delta Long Term “inbetween” point) then I am only looking for an Elliot “wave” count of a “B of 4th” high that will bottom this October (with Delta L-2 as a low) and then rally higher to the end of the year or early next year in the final 5th wave. But note that 5th waves can truncate and not be the high of the entire Impulse. Due to Delta’s wave counting rules concerning Inversions it can go either way too with Delta’s L-3 being the ATH before the Crash or its L-2.

        John is relying on a powerful Cycle whereas many on this board also rely on two different Wave counting schemes in addition to the more powerful Cycles: Elliot and Delta.

        1. Richard I, please would you point me to some ‘starter’ resources for Delta. I know nothing about it.

          Thx

  101. Hi all ! First of all, thank you very much for your kind comments and support. It’s highly motivating for me.
    Commodities are outperforming and I think this is the next theme going forward.

    1. You are welcome Nicolas. Your CB model seems to be playing out. Esp. if RI’s summer of love in the intl. equity and commodity markets is real you will have been prescient.

    2. Yes… join the club. And NO AMZN is NOT a commodity… therefore, loading the bag with it does not qualify! Maybe Valley will catch a clue? lol

      1. Criticize the ideas not the person. WW you are intelligent and successful and your superior analysis is appreciated. However, I must demand an apology for this discourteous remark.

    1. Let’s just see if his predictions come true this summer. I believe they will. RI’s excellent and erudite analysis concurs. Summer will feature rising intl. equities, commodities renaissance, and US market will go along for the ride. Bears are on wrong side of the fence, especially with Saturn in Sag for next 2 years.
      1986-87; 1957-59; 1928-1929.

      “Nothing more powerful than idea who’s time has come.” Victor Hugo

    1. William … glad you’re still around and contributing. I’ll still in awe of your gold/oil inverse relationship chart. I’m learning a lot from you.

      Would you please give a brief explanation of how this gold price movement chart works?

      And, I see you take a lot of flack for your quasi-predictions, which I’m for the most part totally in agreement with. I’m a weirdo, too, guess, but it’s hard to argue with a 30+% day … 🙂 even though we can’t predict market moves …

      1. Sure Peter… if you have a public email, I can send you the chart with notations. It is something very simple but does a good job tracking the gold price on all time frames.

      2. Peter T, just to clarify. WW doesn’t get ANY flack for his insightful reading of the markets. What I dislike is that he feels it gives him the right to mock other people as part of his delivery.

        There is an old saying in my language which roughly translates as:

        Big is the man in whose company no one feels belittled.

        Sadly that doesn’t happen in WWs case.

        1. purvez… making good investment decisions isn’t for everyone, so let’s stop pretending it is. let’s remain objective and reward good analysis and discourage bad. you may think that all investors are created equal… to your disadvantage – let me know where my analysis is wrong so that i may examine it – i’ve got thick skin – i can handle it. some anonymous posters here may not be able to take the heat in the kitchen – better to take a little heat now than to lose one’s shirt in what is about to unfold. i think you are way too thin skinned.

        2. Well, I can see both sides. And I can certainly empathize with William. Some of the statements here are so outlandish, with no apparent basis, either technical or fundamental, that it often makes me wince.

          Making money in the markets is like any other business … and to get mediocre at it takes years of work.

          I spent 35 years of my life as a professional writer/producer/director for television and the barrage of clients in later years with no experience who thought they knew better ended up shooing me away from the business. Way too frustrating.

          I don’t find the overall desire to learn here and for me, this limits the value of the forum for me. I don’t have 38 years as a trader, but I’ve put in my 100,000 hours. I think I can appreciate to a small extent how William feels.

          Hope this helps explain my previous comment.

        3. Spot on purvez.
          I don’t care how much anyone knows about trading, or any subject, if they can’t treat others politely, and resist blowing their own trumpets, they’re not worth a moment of one’s time.

          William Wiser sounds very bitter, no doubt a life spent being rude and pretentious has left him a sad lonely old …git, seems an appropriate noun.

        4. William W, you DO seem to have a reading comprehension issue. NO ONE as far as I’ve read has criticised your Analysis. In all respects it is sound and VERY WELCOME.

          All we ask is that you don’t ‘run down’ others in the process of delivering your info. You are welcome to disagree but it is totally unnecessary to call people idiots or fools. That is my view.

          Peter T, I understand that not all at this site have the same detailed level of investment experience and whenever someone makes a ‘comment’ without some underlying evidence being provided then someone else usually picks up on that and requests further info.

          You, yourself manage to post info and also respond to comments directed directly at you without deriding others. That is one of the great joys of this forum…. the respect with which participants deal with each other.

          You only need to have spent 10 minutes at Daneric’s site to know what a difference this site makes in that respect.

          Anyway, I’ve said my piece. I hope William W will respond appropriately.

    1. KL, I’ve been thinking the same thing. Was beginning to wonder if he is crawled behind some wine vats and is merrily passing his time in Nappa. Lol.

    1. WW thanks for this chart. Lots of good information. Still think we could get a rally in intl. stocks and commodities for a year or two thanks to CB money printing and purchases of equity, though this chart shows why the US market may lag the others or even decrease in price.

      1. You’re welcome… the over-valued dollar is one of the factors in the “vicious circle” that will influence the stock market… and the down leg in the stock market will affect the decent in the dollar. As a result, commodities will rise (as well as gold). Look for the fall to see gold head higher into 2021-2022.

        1. That lines up nicely with my projected low for gold and gold miners in August 10, 2015 which is Venus Inferior C. Last 100 years VSC to 2 months later have had amazingly bullish effects on SPY, GLD, and GDX (or HL before GDX was). I am getting frustrated by the GDX behavior of late but will definitely buy and hold from VSC until towards the end of the year.

        2. I am headed back to private discussion.

          Just email me if you would like updates on gold, oil, silver, spx, etc…

      1. nicola2910 and len… just email me at wwiser@mail.com for up to date charts that actually make lots of money on a daily basis.

        As long as you’re not the “jeger-dumb” hypocrite, the “pervert”ez or the gm ignoramus, I will be happy to provide the analysis. However, I refuse to waste my time with “aggressive” “angry clowns”, “walking cliches”, “d**k”s, “p***k”s, and “guys that go home to beat their wives because the dinner became cold while out drinking, and make it their wives’ fault for making them do it” type know nothings. lol

  102. Yes, justifying insecure and hostile behaviour is often done and not just in trading. Hopefully, at some stage before the end they see themselves like others do. Mind you, that may be how they got here in the first place?

    The question that springs to mind each time I meet this type of person is whether they realise that they are a walking cliche? I mean to justify belittling and aggressive behaviour towards others by making empty statements like “I have 30 years experience and don’t have time to waste”, and “trading is not for everyone”….I mean this sort of sh*t doesn’t even make sense…..it’s like the guy that comes home and beats his wife because his dinner is cold because he has been out drinking. On top of that, it is her fault for making him do it…..

    I am done with this angry clown. I don’t care how potentially valuable his rants are, sometimes you just have to draw a line. If you can’t be vaguely civil, just shut the front door after you.

    J

    1. “it’s like the guy that comes home and beats his wife because his dinner is cold because he has been out drinking. On top of that, it is her fault for making him do it…..”… “I am done with this angry clown”.

      Let out the your repressed anger jeger… throw out some more invectives – now go look in the mirror… you have proved my point.

  103. Okay, ~finally~ got a System Sell signal….
    Officially, covering all longs tomorrow, and be 50% short by COB…

    For my actual trading, covered most shorts on the drop today, and will be looking to add those shorts back on the way up over the next several days…
    That’s the “plan” anyway…
    We shall see…
    GL,
    Barry

  104. Also, if anyone (Allan?) has any specific PM stock thoughts, I’d appreciate a few names to look at….
    I’ve been holding some PM’s (< 5%), but am looking to add to it over the next week or so. I sold a piece of RE, and am closing tomorrow, and will have a chunk of money burning a hole in my pocket… haha 🙂

    Thanks!

    1. My faves are in the US exchanges: NGD New Gold (CEO is chair of world gold council), EXK Endeavor Silver, AG First Majestic, GPL Great Panther, SAND Sandstorm Gold, BTG B2Gold. These are ones featured on Kitco videos and have performed well during up moves in market. If it was me I would buy GDXJ to avoid company specific risk. Or GDX same thing. Allan probably has better advice cause he has more experience in this area.

    2. Barry I really don’t like giving too many recommendations, however in your case as you appear to be a seasoned investor and will do DD I can give you three that I consider outstanding opportunities regardless if gold goes up substantially or not.
      I assume you are US based and don’t invest in Oz so I will stick to NA based stocks but there are two or three Oz based that IMO are also compelling if you decide you are interested?
      The list includes two junior producers that have ever growing business models and one well established mid-tier that is IMO one of the best stories around. All three are solid amd growth oriented add low prod cost.
      All are TSO/ US listed. Crocodile is Aussie based. LSG in my opinion is a minimum no brainer 10 bagger if gold returns to USD1800 and likely more than 10x.

      Lake Shore Gold Corp
      Crocodile Gold
      Seabridge Gold

      1. Sorry I likely confused you a bit there. What I should have said is NA listed not “based” as Crocodile are NA listed but oz based in terms of projects.

        1. Haha Allan, i have bought some Seabridge gold as well, but the stock price has been quite flat lately.

      2. Yes thanks Allan. Extremely great piece of info. Could be a ticket to retirement to a lot of people if managing risk right.

        I hold a bunch of LSG as well. Very strong company indeed. It is my retirement funds.

        1. DP 99.99% of investors nowadays are momentum junkies and incapable of free thought when it comes to the stock and wouldn’t kmow value if it hit them fair and square between the eyes.
          I continue to accumulate at levels that in a few short years will be looked back upon as being staggeringly cheap.

      3. Lake Shore Gold is a strong situation. However, stay far away from Crocodile Gold. I would also not go with Seabridge Gold since the economics are unlikely to ever work out.

        Somebody also mentioned Hecla Mining and I would stay away from it too since it is a poor operator.

        1. Steve, you are of course entitled to your opinion and I advise that everyone do their own diligence. My strategy is simple, I target sectors that are beaten down and in the process of bottoming.in this casethere is no more beaten down sector than PM’s. I then target companies that are positioned to best capitalise upon the growth in that sector.
          Both Crocodile Gold and Seabridge are turning their operations around and will profit handsomely from golds next bull market that is IMO underway.
          As a suggestion watch Crocodile’s qtr release in just under two weeks. Even with the current low gold price they are beginnng to walk the talk rather than just spruik about it. They have enough gold to produce at current levels for years.

          Cheers

  105. Was yesterday the last “late month” test of the 100 day sma before the DOW soars to new ATHs?

    1. Both Copper and Natural Gas are still going higher this morning and the DOW is up over 100 pts in just 15 minutes of trade and this after yesterdays scary sell off (testing the 100 day sma intraday once again but closing above it once again).

      1. Oh me oh my, Gold just broke to new recent lows. Looks more and more that a Commodity Bull market (except for Gold and Silver) is starting up for the Summer. Should this late month retest of the DOW’s 100 day sma hold then stocks could be rallying up to Delta high L-2 while Gold collapses to its low L-1 and this is not what many on this board is expecting….

        1. However, look at the AUD, it’s back to a low 78 handle. IIf there is a case for commodities to rally this summer, we should see a stronger AUD first shouldn’t we?

      2. Looks like copper is back in a bull market to me Richard.
        Oh, sorry, no, I was looking at a gold chart, copper clearly just having its latest tiny correction within a 4 year bear.
        You should just look at a GLD:CCI ratio chart, it would reveal something simple you fail to see at the moment: a rising real price of gold.

  106. I enjoy coming to this site so much. I keep smiling at the posts and often end up laughing out loud. the biggest challenge is reminding myself that most of these posts are said in earnest.

    I expect part of this is due to short time frames. Another element is probably related to parroting what is heard from wall street or the msm.

    But i’m beginning to realize that most of it has to be due to inexperience. I would just urge people to be careful. please.

  107. Hi all ! Everything seems to be going smoothly today: QQQ surging, IBB surging, Gold dropping…
    Good job by central banks. So, stay focused on the strategy and you’ll do fine.
    regards

  108. Valley
    April 28, 2015

    Peter_, would you be a buyer of gold silver miners at this time?
    Reply

    Further accumulation from here looks reasonable, provided targets are established with some consideration of ones own justifiable prognosis. The risk with this sector is well established – it is not for the cautious.
    My expectation is not broadly shared, but at least I own it and can change it according to the same guidelines that I have chosen to employ.
    Almost 8% of my holdings have been between these two sectors for many years. I will not go more than 15% regardless of my indicators.
    One indicator is equities prognosis on my take of Elliott. I expect this next upleg will not validate the miners slight recovery within the basing zone. But this just the completion of a minor 3rd or a larger Intermediate 3rd. When the Major 4th correction arrives there will be consequential bullish impact on the gold sector. The market mood will go into Major 4th fear and many will be bemused by the Major 5th. But this is just softening for the next bear trend. Elliott had some profound understanding of the collective human psyche relative to his wave theory. I find it to be the most useful tool in the box.

      1. Thank you Peter. As an EW newbie, I appreciate your explanation in regards to the Gold mining sector. I agree, that on a value basis the Gold mining sector is cheap relative to popular sectors like tech. GDX may have it’s day in the sun, and your EW summary may point the way forward. Have a wonderful weekend: good gold, good tennis, or whatever makes you happy.

  109. Oh me oh my…..gold stocks finished higher dspite lower metals…….exactly as would be expected when a major bottom is forming in tne metals.

    1. Over twenty years Japanese stocks were bound by a high L-9 both above and below so why not Gold, over five years, being bounded by L-1 both above and below. Do your research and you won’t find that this sort of thing is uncommon at all wave counts. I don’t understand why Ron hasn’t already noticed this pattern and now expects it. This pattern points toward Gold L-1 as a low and S+P 500 L-2 as a high that brings in SL-6.

      In addition; go read the book; “1”s want to be lows. Also, Wilder once said that the S+P 500 Super Long Term “evens” would always be highs. I don’t know why he said this. Maybe he is holding back more than what he has revealed.

      1. Richard, in your estimation what price level would correspond to Gold L-1, and S + P L-2? Much appreciated.

  110. Does anyone know what the term is when Venus and Mercury are both on the same line vs. the sun either on same side or on opposite sides? And where to find out this data in calendar form.

    Tomorrow V and M are lined up on same side of sun. Happen every 70 days (+/- 15 days). Market is weak right now, and the VM lining up. So I went back to historical data and found 60- 70% of time market shows unusual weakness 2 weeks following this. Inner planets, closest to sun, closest to earth; of course, they have greatest effect. Except for moon, of course! 🙂

    1. Valley,
      Are you Describing opposition (opposite side) and conjunct (same side), from a heliocentric perspective (vs the Sun). I would agree that inner planets have the ‘greatest’ TIMING effect. Outer planets (+rahu/Ketu) set the larger cycles.

      FWIW, last mid-June there was a very interesting Mars – Saturn relationship reflecting the end of one cycle, and the beginning of another, and initiating a profound impact on the crude oil market. That market appears to have started a bottom with a trine, and a double bottomed with an important pentagonal aspect (Cowan) at the end of February between each low. Today we are in opposition in that relationship. That relationship goes back a very long way in time, to August 27, 1859. A trigger and the kronicator.
      SJC

    2. Valley,

      My work suggests weakness ahead as well. Technical not astrological. The performance of the Russell 2000 may be are a harbinger of its larger cap brethren.

  111. Allan/Valley;
    Thank you for the earlier suggestions….
    I like the chart set-ups on 2 of them in particular at this time, (SA, EXK) but I’ll be watching all of those mentioned for pull-backs and potential entry…

    Anyway, just to follow-up, still on a 50% Sell signal for the US stock market, and I’m certainly short as well, but would feel better about it if we’d see some weakness in the HY area…

    GL, and thanks again,
    Barry

  112. Lunar Chord:
    Moon: Full Today, weak until Thursday
    Distance: Decreasing distance, bullish all week
    Tides: Falling all week, bearish
    Declination: Falling to South, bearish
    Planets: Just complete Me/Ve heliocentric conjunction (new indicator, very bearish for 8 trading days after this). The planet formerly known as Helios (Saturn) is in opposition on May 23, market typically is weak until after opposition.
    Seasonals: Weak Wednesday to following Tuesday.

    Summary: Given technicals and above data would expect EXTREMELY bearish tone until at least 8 trading days. May move higher for a few days, but chances of rally here are unlikely. Look for S + P 500 at 4% lower prices in 8 trading days.

  113. The recent New Moon and Full Moon have had similar set backs in the DOW so wouldn’t it be reasonable to expect new ATHs, soon, instead of anymore set backs? (Notice similar support at the 100 day sma too).

    1. Me/Ve HC often delivers 3 to 4 percent correction in following 8 trading days. Looking for October like fall in market into mid May. Earnings have set the tone imo.

      1. Thank you so much Valley. Your geocosmic angle has been fantastic, and extremely helpful. May I pls ask why you think the correction would be that deep? While I agree that the correction is more likely this week with the unemployment report to be released on Friday, I don’t see a steep sell-off yet, until the major technical supports are broken, say SPX has to break 2040. IWM has been a good indicator of the market direction. So far it is defending support quite well imho.

        1. Me/Ve HC often delivers 3 to 4% correction (like 75% time). Market at or near ATH, we are at full moon, seasonal weakness begins Wednesday. Mainly the first reason.

      2. Where in the world did you get HL is a well run company. It is one of the great destroyers of capital of all time.

        1. It has outperformed GDXJ on all time frames. It has long track record, trades on the NYSE, trading at 3.00 if it were to rise to 5.00 would be on big money’s investment radar. It won’t offer outsized returns but then again won’t go bankrupt.

  114. Perhaps William Wiser, with all his certainty and vitriol, is actually the MAJORITY opinion in the current sentiment mix.

    He makes his point as if he, and he alone, can see all of this developing.

    Essentially the entire investing world can see this — and has seen this — but still the market goes up.

    Perhaps the all-time-high only occurs when William Wiser gives up and goes long.

    With his level of certainty that might be double current levels.

  115. I notice that IG hunted my dax long stop at 11401 this morning at around 8.30am London time. Nice!

    J

  116. Anyone who has been involved in financial for
    any length of time is aware that precise market
    timing does not exist, that does not mean that
    an individual is unable to make a number of
    great timing calls, the laws of chance allow for that.

    Probabilities exist on making short term calls,
    certainty is a fairy story from never never land.

  117. The recent New Moon and Full Moon sell-offs of the DOW was ONLY A TEST of the 100 day sma. That “test” of the 100 day sma held –so– now it is on to new ATHs.

    Notice that the HOPE that CBs can revive the economies is alive and well as Chinese economic numbers disappoint but stocks continue higher on HOPE, HOPE, HOPE, that CBs rule the markets.

    The only “fundamental” that matters is HOPE IN CB RULERSHIP (I know its perverse but that is the true nature of the markets….OPTIMISM, OPTIMISM, OPTIMISM and to h— with reality (at least for now)).

  118. Do any of the EWers here see triangle forming on the DJIA from the Mar 12 low as follows?

    w-a = Mar 12 low to Mar 23 high
    w-b = Mar 23 high to Mar 26 low
    w-c = Mar 26 low to Apr 27 high
    w-d = Apr 27 high to Apr 30 low
    w-e = Apr 30 low and completing about now May 4

    The equivalent date ranges in the S&P on the other hand look very much like an ending diagonal.

    Thx for any comments in advance.

    1. Apart from the 3-3-3-3-3 form within the triangle there is the indicator of the macd histogram where the peaks generated by the 2nd & 4th waves either confirm or diverge from the lower side of the triangle.
      As a guideline the triangle can be expected to resolve in the direction given by the histogram.
      In both Dow and SPX the waves lack definition along with daily (and other) histograms that are bullish.
      So purvez IMO you are close but no cigar. Keep reading, keep counting.
      I thank you
      Good Day

      1. However, SPX can possibly be seen to have daily bearish histogram but that would put us in final triangle leg that has no resemblance to a triangle. Nevertheless, on further inspection SPX has moved closer to passing as an ending diagonal. If it is so then these are the terminal days for Primary wave III of this index. Primary wave IV will be the vindication of all that John has given us and will have a global effect. Better take precautions just in case.

  119. The difference between Elliott and Delta is about money. Elliott is fully free to all mankind and Delta is fully proprietary and accessible to subscribers only.
    Elliott has known value to many, whereas Delta is of the unkown, the dark hole…
    The only reason to mention Delta is so that you will become sufficiently intrigued to part with money. All part of the hijack story.
    Everyone should dream up a story, make a webpage and try to collect. If there were several billion such places no one would ever take any notice at all.

    1. I paid $150 for the Well Wilder book on Delta so it is not proprietary. Delta is like Elliott frequently in that the counts only work after the fact.

      1. Recently, the power of the Moon (New and Full) was unable to close the DOW beneath its 100 day sma even though it clearly tried (not once but twice in the second half of last month). With 401k’s receiving more money (end of the month/start of the month) why wouldn’t the DOW trade up to new ATHs this month/May?

    1. Hi Kerry,
      Enjoyed your website and CNBC interview. Is there a 17.6 day cycle (fractal patterns usually scale)? Really interesting work, thanks!

        1. You may want to check out Olga Morales website she has some good info. on declination, I believe. Worth a look. Seems like moon controls monthly price moves based upon energy within the modulating context of solar, and planets. Planets mercury and venus are a treasure trove. Inferior and superior conjunctions to earth have repeated price (energy) moves. Helio based conjunction and oppositions act as a trigger for repeated down moves in price that happen most of the time.

          One little gem that I am exploring is market in US tends to rise every day 3 hours before moon rise in NYC and continue 1 hour after. This 4 hour daily double is going to be one of my futures trading strategies when I get a futures account. It is only a few points but nice underliner for daily revenue.

  120. “The sun is almost completely blank. The main driver of all weather and climate, the entity which occupies 99.86% of all of the mass in our solar system, the great ball of fire in the sky has gone quiet again during what is likely to be the weakest sunspot cycle in more than a century. The sun’s X-ray output has flatlined in recent days and NOAA forecasters estimate a scant 1% chance of strong flares in the next 24 hours. Not since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906 has there been a solar cycle with fewer sunspots. We are currently more than six years into Solar Cycle 24 and the current nearly blank sun may signal the end of the solar maximum phase.”

    http://vencoreweather.com/2015/04/30/845-am-the-sun-is-now-virtually-blank-during-the-weakest-solar-cycle-in-more-than-a-century/

  121. 100% short S + P 500. Not based upon anything other than phase, tides falling, declination nearing S position, and Ve/Me Helio conj. of 5/3. Got to trade with the system and will take 1 to 2 % loss if required.

  122. This is meaningful, perhaps only to those with longer term horizons

    MACD crossover on the Monthly SPX

    via Downside Hedge

  123. Do any of the EWers here see triangle forming on the DJIA from the Mar 12 low
    w-e = Apr 30 low and completing about now May 4

    The equivalent date ranges in the S&P on the other hand look very much like an ending diagonal.

    Thx for any comments in advance.

    OK purvez, chart exploring SPX for the diagonal triangle, here…
    Although I am reluctant – there is no better count at this venture, so I shall say yes I am obliged to think it can be as you say.
    Prepare for that cigar.
    http://barestbodkins.blogspot.com/

    1. Added a Dow30 take. I prefer using EWT on more representative indices. The lost soul look of this index is quite sad.

      1. Peter_ many thanks for your comments. The reason I quote the Dow is because that is my ‘preferred’ (read pretty much only) trading vehicle for the last 6 years and it has given me a ‘good living’.

        Thanks very much for the offer of a cigar. I’ll bring the cognac. 🙂

    1. Australian Dollar: BTFD.

      No hints if anymore interest rate cuts with rates at all time record lows as of today.

  124. Trade notification….just bought some gold Lunar coins @ £805.90 each.
    Decided more gold suits my nature, rather than more miners.
    Have a profitable week everyone.

  125. Final triangle and false break higher in crude ? Almost textbook wave formation.
    If so then crude should immediately reverse lower.

  126. Hi all ! Commodities all across the board look very strong. This is the new theme. So, you can buy all the big producers like BHP, RIO, FCX, CCJ etc…
    Regards.

    1. Very bearish move on the dax today. Took some of my positions off this morning on the rise but still long. Waiting for this panic drop to end and can then average down for the recovery.

      1. Next stop 11,000 potentially! Investors fleeing Europe. A Grexit is having a bigger impact than I expected…wish I hadn’t been so foolish with my trades. On a longer term view I don’t expect a European rate rise within the next 3 years so stocks are still very cheap.

  127. US treasuries are jaw dropping and that means inflation is expected: Commodity Bull Market (except in Gold and Silver and the Grains as droughts end in the US major crop areas)?

    Seriously, to invest right now without a “world view” on US treasuries is foolish. US treasuries look to be going down in an Eliot 3rd wave and that usually means that commodity inflation is expected. There are always exceptions to the rule and with the US crop area droughts ending the Grains will still head lower even though other commodities like the energies and meats may rally strongly as international consumer demand soars.

    1. The commodities that have been rallying strongly are the energies, copper, and the meats. The USA is a major grain producer and has had major drought in the wheat areas that is rapidly ending pointing to lower grain prices this year. A “question” is how much of that will be passed on to consumers and how much of the lower grain cost will food processors keep for themselves. If an international consumer revival happens this summer then human food processers could rally unusually strongly during this time period with declining costs and rising demand/prices.

      1. Kansas is the largest USA Wheat growing state and Kansas board of trade December, 2015, Wheat futures (high protein wheat used to make bread) just broke to new life-of-contract lows as its Drought is ending. A major “cost” to make bread is in steep decline. Consider wisely….

        1. Along the same “thread of continuity”: American refineries are expected to make the largest amount of gasoline, for this Spring and early Summer, in history. This also means the largest demand for ethanol in that same time period. With Ethanol futures rallying and Corn futures declining; guess what that means for “the bottom line” of ethanol manufactures. Consider wisely….

          (All of this “fits” with my view that stocks won’t “top” until this Fall and some stocks will rally better than others.)

        2. Here is another one (you can blame the Canadians for this) of all the human food processors those that have Oats as their greatest “cost” input, and can increase their demand the most, and possible increase their product price, may see the greatest boost to their “bottom line” (P/E) this summer.

        3. Btw: Throw rice in there too as in Rough Rice futures. American Rough Rice, Oats, Corn, Wheat (three different types/exchanges), and Soybean futures are all in major Bear markets that look to continue as the Drought in the middle of the country comes to an end this year.

          Rice and Oats are used to a large extent in human snacks and with consumers around the world saving on lower energy costs those snack sales could soar this summer.

  128. pretty sure the greek drama ends here

    may take a few u rope peon banks wid it

    stocks carsh

    fright to quality (sic) us treasury bonds

    and a real bid for gold

    should be fun

  129. Richard I, you write an awful lot, some of which I read.
    You wrote about these ‘current market conditions’ where the USD would go down and the US stock market would go up, something to do with earnings you suggested.

    That was a load of nonsense then wasn’t it?

    1. No, a falling USD will send US stocks higher because so many companies reported in the first quarter reports that the high dollar is hurting their non-US sales and half the S+P 500 companies revenues comes from outside the USA. That is the current “market conditions” that is different from “market conditions” current a year ago.

      Recently, the USD has been trending down and US stocks have refused to collapse and been trying to rally to new ATHs thereby. However, the American Farm Sector is not small and with today’s news of totally unexpected Russian wheat sales to Egypt just hammered the American heavy industrial stocks showing that American grain prices could go much, much lower.

      An American movie just had incredible sales outside the US of A. This points to non-Americans being flush with cash and very willing to be consumers this summer. China’s Middle Class exceeds the entire population of the ole US of A. This is why Disney’s stock has rallied to new ATHs. I am not expecting a general stock crash until after this Fall but I do expect major sector rotations such as out of Farm equipment suppliers and into Human Food suppliers.

      1. ‘An American movie just had incredible sales outside the US of A. This points to non-Americans being flush with cash and very willing to be consumers this summer.’

        Hmmm, ya think?
        We shall see.
        How much popcorn will they be buying, I might go long corn futures?

  130. I have stock, forex, and futures accounts. Over the past several days I have shorted different Grain futures. I think that a “death spiral” is imminent for the major Grains. Why? The major Drought in the middle of the North American continent is going to end and, amazing as it seems, the USD could rally to new recent highs at the same time. OMG!!!

    “Why” the rally in the USD to new recent highs? How about US treasuries “dropping like a rock” for beginners.

    The usual pattern of an Elliot 4th wave correction is to be a Triangle with the “B” wave of that Triangle exceeding the ending of the Impulse 3rd wave that it is correcting. With the Yen pointing towards another Elliot Impulse wave lower against the Dollar (its Elliot 4th wave (sideways Triangle) having concluded), the Euro may fall back to new recent lows so that both its and the USD’s Elliot “B of 4th” waves exceeds their prior Impulse waves. Should this happen at the exact same time that the major drought ends then the major US grains will be pressured to fall and fall radically; i.e., a “death spiral”.

    Take a look at what World Sugar, Rough Rice, and Oats futures are doing to get an idea of what could really happen to the major Grains. Its scary….(and could have incredible potential for human food processors especially if an increase in international demand occurs this summer too).

    1. Specs at record short for wheat and u r talking death spiral. Back test scenarios where this happened and a massive rally has taken place.

      There should be a limit on how frequent users can post in the comments. Too many folks here trying to comments on daily and weekly moves to caress their egos and only a few keep their eyes on the big picture. Plus you have users like this one changing their mind on a daily basis. Convictions can be strong when one’s view changes daily on no major news.

  131. Here is a reasonable warning for Traders: The ongoing radical decline in US Treasuries is a warning that this Thursday’s New Claims will be low!! AND this Friday’s NFP will be high!! If this is so then the markets will go crazy by Friday and beyond. I am expecting this outcome and, therefor, I am expecting the Euro to break to new lows and the Dollar to new highs for their Elliot “B of 4th” waves of their ongoing sideways Diagonal Triangles (see the Yen especially for an example of the time for those triangles to run their coarse).

    I am not expecting a “crash” in stocks until after this Fall. But I am expecting major sector rotations in stocks and a Bull Market for some Commodities for the summer.

    1. For the remainder of this week I think it is financially dangerous to be short the USD and long the major industrial currencies.

      Btw: The Russians just undercut everyone in selling Wheat at low prices today. Egypt is the world’s largest importer of wheat even though 2,000 years ago they supplied ancient Rome with much of its wheat. There are two storms this week that will end the major drought in and around Kansas and, of course, the Russians are fully aware of it. The Russians have 2 million tons of wheat they need to get rid of to make room for the new crop. This year Europe has sold more wheat, internationally, than the USA has. Egypt just switched from European wheat to Russian wheat and has bought very little wheat from the USA this crop season. This reinforces my view that the American Grains will suffer a “death spiral” especially if the dollar rallies to new recent highs. (Note that the Russian Ruble rallied strongly today too). (American farm machinery manufactures might not be stock to be long this summer etc.)

      1. When the news of the Russian wheat sale to Egypt made the rounds today the American Industrial stocks sold off. The American Farm sector is one of those sectors to rotate out of thus Summer. I am not expecting a general stock market crash but some sectors like the Farm Sector will turn into bear markets.

  132. I would be extremely cautious jumpingi nto base metal producers at this point. I am an Aussie and cut my teeth on trading and analysing mining companies and I really don’t like what I am seeing OR hearing.

    1. gold is holding quite firmly this week but this time it’s miners’ turn to underperform gold……….. While I have gold and silver miners myself, I must say North American miners really are no newcrest Allan.

  133. If RIs theory plays out, two more red candle days, rally Thursday into next week. Moon phase weak zone ends Thursday.

  134. The Saudis raised their price of Crude today. This will put the screws to Greece and Europe as they must buy dollars in order to buy Saudi crude. The Saudis only taking dollars for their crude is the backbone of the Dollar Standard Era. Due to the large US production of Crude, even though back into a slow decline, hurts the USA very little compared to almost everyone else. In the short term this could help to rally the dollar especially if US labor reports this week are positive for a dollar rally too.

    The Saudis may have also “read the tea leaves” in that the non-US ticket sales of the latest Avengers movie series is a “sign” that consumers around the world are going to consume more this summer. I don’t have EWIs services but this movie’s surprisingly strong non-US ticket sales would/will be mentioned in their monthly report to point out how potentially “optimistic” the worldwide human herd is.

    Two big things happened in commodities today: Russia dumped their old crop Wheat “at the market” –and– Saudi Arabia raised their Crude prices.

    1. Markets can, at times, be very perverse. Here is an example: how about a USD SHORT SQUEEZE. By now many of you probably think that I have totally lost it. But don’t worry the Austrian School of Economics has nothing to do with it.

      The House of Saud made an agreement with the US Military that if the US Military will keep them in power that Saudi Crude will only be sold for USDs; and, this is what forms the back bone of the Dollar Standard Era and not some far fetched view of the Austrian School of Economics.

      Recently, there have been reports that the Chinese are selling USD at up to 100 billion a month to support their own currency. The Chinese are major Crude importers. With Crude going up in price the Chinese must buy more USD in order to buy higher priced Crude. What if the Chinese (and many others) are not expecting Crude to be rising in price at this time and are, therefor, low on USD to buy that higher priced Crude with? Huh? What then? Wouldn’t that mean an unexpected “short squeeze” of USD resulting in a scramble for USD that sends USD higher than is expected –currently? And wouldn’t that mean an unexpected and potential fall in Gold too?

      Should this week’s US labor reports surprise by low New Claims and high Job Creations the USD could make a totally unexpected rally to new trend highs as those “short” USD scramble to acquire USD to use for international trade such as Crude (and completely, and I do mean completely unexpected fall in Gold).

      That about does it for the “fundamentals” that I can come up with that could send the USD up in an Elliot “B of 4th” wave to new trend highs.

      1. For all the Ellioticians out there; is the Yen through with its sideways Diagonal Triangle and ready to begin its next Impulse wave lower against the USD? If so, then what does that mean for the Euro and BP? (…and Gold?)

        1. I agree with Peter_. If you have the time and inclination, I would read your blog every day. Your ideas and writing excellence are suitable for the widest possible audience, imo. Many of your dot connecting ideas are unique, not to mention relevant and cogent.

  135. Gold Bugs take note: the rally of the past several weeks in the Euro and Pound have been as much –if not more so– against the Yen as to the Dollar. The truth could be that if it hadn’t been for those rallies the Yen would already have fallen in an Impulse wave out of its six month Triangle. The odds are not good that the Euro and Pound can continue to rally against both the USD and the Yen especially if the Yen “wants” to fall in an Impulse wave against the USD. So, should the Euro and Pound decline against the USD then the Yen could decline in an Impulse wave out of its Triangle of the USD. The price behavior of Gold could be showing that the above is the “truth” because with the recent decline in the USD Index Gold should have rallied better then it has.

    If an Asian currency war is starting then the odds of the Euro and Pound continuing their rallies against the USD falls to next to nothing as does any rally in Gold.

  136. Have shorted the DAX now and gone long US indices. Situation short term has changed. Draghi must do something to reverse the Euro rally or Europe will worsen whilst the US will benefit. I can only imagine a better growth picture globally with euro dollar parity. Will initiate a short on oil in the near future too as I think the rally is overdone considering the high level of oversupply still out there.

    1. Closed the DAX short for 110 point gain. Nice day trade. Still being weighed down by the long positions but they will come good by the end of May I think.

    2. Krish, you should read the recent Alhambra blog posts on trade. It’s all on the slide, in a recession styleee, all over the world.

  137. Yes oil – too early to tell but is either a breakaway gap or bull trap (overthrow)….

    I am short QQQ and SPY as well as a couple of airlines and other individual stocks. Short China A50 too, all positions are modest at this time.

    If seen, watch for SPX close under 2077 – if that happens I would close any long there for a bit.

    imho

    J

  138. Just wanted to give a shout out to valley. Your calls have been right on. GREAT calls.

    I continue 100% short the SM, and start shorting oil as well. Oil should start a cycle correction from here imv.

    GLTA!

    1. I won’t be short past tomorrow at close. Tides bottom on Friday, and price has a way of bottoming day before at close. High low tides are by far the most correlated to SM performance, so am reluctant to be short with rising tides. Congrats on your profitable short and may many follow!

      1. I like this call to valley. I am totally out of my short positions before close today, booking profits. Better be safe than sorry. Both SPX and IWM are holding supports very well.

        Look to short commodities when the USD starts bouncing.

        1. You could be right, or today could be an inside day with plunge on Friday’s low tide. Me/Ve post conjunction weakness is wrestling with pre Saturn opposition strength under the big top of Metal month weakness. Unless Purvez or Peter have an EW objection I shall stay short into tomorrows close. Luck be a lady.

    2. Watch out for RIs prediction of Thursday surprise economic report, will definitely be looking to secure gains if tomorrow starts to rally.

  139. Look forward to seeing the effect of tides on stock markets. Out of interest, where are tides bottoming on Friday? Where the tides are peaking, you will short yes? Tidal data seems a bit hard to find. I will have some spare time over the next few weeks, so will try to gather data (that I understand) and set up a system that can update so I can make an empirical (as far as poss) study on this. I have heard tides mentioned for quite some time on here, but my impression was that tidal influences do not seem to be a better system than any other for trading, but I am quite curious.

    Good luck as always

    J

        1. Addendum: Market is weak twice a month when moon is far N and far S declination. Day before to day after far N lower or flat prices, 5 days before far S to day after lower to flat prices. Low tides almost always correspond to far N or far S declination.

    1. Haha Peter_on I can barely control my own mind let alone all the illustrious ones here.

      Stems from my 2 brain cells limitation.

  140. Please remind me why gold will go up again? It just feels like it goes down when the market is up, or down…It almost feels like there are better bets in oil or currencies, to invest the view on CB unwinding.

      1. Fundamentally, gold should not drop below production costs. Doesn’t mean it will rise — you are right that flat for a decade is always possible.

        1. yes, but I believe they are in the minority. Lots of gold bugs and other analysts who are saying gold has made a long term bottom here. I’m in wait and see mode.

    1. my own view on gold is that the January thru March decline in gold was wave 1 of the 3rd wave down of which will eventually be a large 5 wave decline from the July high. The move up and sideways since that March low is part of or all of wave 2 of 3. Once the next wave down begins, I suspect it will be a fast and furious drop to below 1000. That will be wave 3 of 3.

      Caveat: EW usually has alternate counts, so I could be wrong.

  141. one last comment re gold. After the crash from the 1980 top, gold did nothing for 20 years. It’s only been 4 years since the 2011 high. Lots of folks still expecting gold to bottom and head higher and make new highs. But what if it behaves like it did after the 1980 top?

    1. Don’t get me wrong — I am not saying to sell short gold. Yes, gold held up in the 2008 crash, but cash did even better. I am just questioning my sanity in expecting a metal that served as a store of value for decades to continue to have the same glitter for the next generation.

      1. Assume: definition; makes an “ass” out of “u” and “me”.

        Agree that assumptions should be mutable. Horse traders probably assumed that cars were a fad.

        That said, gold has most likely role as world reserve currency. The petrodollar may become the golddollar? Any thoughts?

        1. Nearly Valley.
          The Euro becomes the oil currency, and the Euro will be as good as gold.
          ( check line one on Eurosystem assets balance sheet ).

    2. Gold is still treating water since that 1982 peak. Inflation adjusted, nothing gained in 33 years.

      That’s about to change, as growth vanishes for a generation, and the 1970s are repeated. Gold will turn for good when the Govt bond bubble bursts. Later this year. Then at least 15 years up, to c. $35k an ounce.

  142. it’s been a while but here’s another Spiral update: Spiral low this am at 6 est, now up with a target of 2018. best time to buy in next is tomorrow between 5 am and 7am est. a lot of volatility ahead next week with another low at the end of that week. I’ll update again as targets are hit and turns approach.

      1. up to 2018 – first target was 2102 (reached). Next target changed to 2112 (which is where we are now) and then 2130.

  143. My take on gold: My EW count indicates a bounce first, a wave 3 of 3, taking gold back above 1220, then over 1308, before it starts heading down to its 8 year cycle low later this year. However, gold/miner is obviously not behaving well at all. It kept dropping even when the USD was falling. Technically, the wedge in GDX has already been broken, so imv gold is not a good sector to be in right now, unless it starts heading back to 1220 in no time.

    I am buying miners GDX/GDXJ in installments, simply because it is my retirement plan. I would rather short oil, which is currently moving down to its daily cycle low, than long gold.

  144. I tried to post this earlier today from my twitter account – trying again via wordpress:

    it’s been a while but here’s another Spiral update: Spiral low this am at 6 est, now up with a target of 2018. best time to buy in next is tomorrow between 5 am and 7am est. a lot of volatility ahead next week with another low at the end of that week. I’ll update again as targets are hit and turns approach.

    1. Mjmateer,
      Good to see your post. Seems like you have been gone for 7442 hours, or so. From your view, do you see this May 10th-11th being significant for the indexes? I have just committed to understanding spirals of electro/gravitational energy. Your heads up led me to that direction of knowledge. Making progress, but a long way to go for me.
      SJC

      1. probably 7442 hours! yes, 5/11 from 5:40 to 7:30 est is Singularity or the end of contraction of the Spiral from the last Expansion date of 4/25. From 5/11 to 5/25, the Spiral expands. 7442 Analytics Facebook page is updating (and explaining) forecasts frequently so it’s easier now to track along. I’m posting to demonstrate that price is predictable.

    2. Mjmateer,
      You indicated a move up to a target of 2018. Did you mean 2118 in S&P? If it is 2118, and given that the price sequence today was inside and inverse the price sequence of yesterday, a move in the S&P to 2118 would imply a failure, which would imply a move up of ‘strength and duration’. This view could also be supported by the fact that we have been ‘coiling’ sideways since early December, which would indicate a strong move in the direction of a break out of this 4 month (120 deg) chop. Also, FWIW, although Helio Mars-Saturn is more closely aligned to Crude (check out its conjunction last June 14 as well as August 27, 1859), I believe it has an impact on all markets. That relationship was at 180* last Sunday.
      SC

  145. Why is is particular to stock markets? Why is FTSE strongly up and China A50 down? Why does it not apply to currency or commodity markets?

    Or you can direct me to explanations somewhere, I am sure you get these questions often.

    Thanks
    J

  146. All these counts on Gold???………the single best ever proxy on the gold price bar none is the ASX gold mining NDX XGD.

    It says gold has all but bottomed and higher prices coming.

    1. is this the first time that index has given this signal since the 2011 top? Lots of folks saying that this is long term bottom but when I look at their analysis tools, I can see that those same tools “called the bottom” more than once since the 2011 top.

  147. You know the stock market is in dangeous territory and in its final days when everyone is chasing momentun and technicals whilst ignoring or applying virtually no emphasis toward fundamentals.

    The fundamentals of the global economy are deteriorating faster than I can ever remember and yet nobody gives a rats #%*!

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102660913

  148. Hi all ! Don’t forget that the fundamentals of the global economy are not important at all. Same thing with valuations.
    You should focus on central banks and the fundamentals look great. We have strong asset buying from central banks all over the world, particularly from the Swiss central bank and the Japanese central bank. They are doing a great job. Frankly I am very grateful.
    regards

    1. You do have a point. The CB’s are buying stocks with “money” they create out of thin air. I say it’s high time for torches and pitchforks for the bankers (counterfeiters).

  149. Hi all, don’t forget the Bradley Siderograph predicted a major market top at 5/10/15. The Bradley charts don’t care if it is a Sunday. 100/100 power declination. today is the day to take profits on longs. I expect March lows to be revisited over the next two weeks before the Middle turn back up on May 24th.

    http://bradleysiderograph.com/2015-turn-dates-sp500/

  150. The VXV/VIX ratio spiked to 1.30 from 1.10 today. anything over 1.24 is bearish for near term sell offs (7-14 days) .130+ was last reached on Dec 5th.

    On Dec 5th, SPY was 208. ON Dec 16th, SPY was 197.91. 11 days. VXV/VXX ratio high on Dec 5th 1.35

    On March 2nd, VXV/VXX spiked to 1.33. SPY was 211.99 On March 6th, 207.50

    On March 20th VXV/VXX spiked to 1.31. SPY was 211.27 by March 26, spy 204.12

    https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=VXV%2FVIN

    Above is the link, check it for yourself against the data and decide for yourself if you want to follow our pal Nikky and chase today’s spike.

    Conversely, smart money flow has been exiting stage left for several weeks now.

    As Nicolas correctly pointed out, the only ones buying for the last several weeks are governments. Anyone see what is on Bank of Sweden’s balance sheet ?

    Over $1billion in Apple stock and over 1mm shares of SPY.

    Good luck all. I am loaded for Bear Country. I anticipate 204-206 by May 22nd.

    22….. A master number.

    1. Good call Scott. I am reentering short as well. As a market indicator, IWM needs to move through 124 to the 125 region to complete wave1 off the lows. If IWM stays below 124, then retraces later today, it would be an indicator that that this spike is wave 4, hence we will likely retest the lows, if not break them for wave 5 of c of ii.

      Great day to go short and long VXX.

    2. I referenced the vxv,vin chart. not the vxv,vxx. Both will work as written. Slightly different ratios. Vxv,vix over 1.20 today. Very bearish

  151. FYI I closed my SPY short this morning for a small loss, closed half of DAX longs and half the China A50 shorts from a few days ago. I do think China may see more downside over the coming weeks but am happy with the gains made so far.

    Still short QQQ which is slightly in the red.

    J

  152. Well there goes my Triangle hypothesis. One of these day’s I’ll call the ‘triangle’ right and won’t trade it because ‘it never works out’ Lol.

  153. Exited SPXU with 2% loss. See what next week brings. Lunar unusually strong next week, seasonals week til Wednesday. At ATH so will probably try to get 1% on downside Tuesday.

  154. Spiral expects a high the beginning of next week and a low at the end of the week. 2112 (where we are now) is resistance and then 2130. Will post more accurate times next week.

    1. Hi Mjmateer, thank you for the prediction. Does the Spiral system indicate any correction of SP500 that’s >5% in May? Thx.

  155. I think that is unlikely KL. best place for a May low is next week 5/14 or 5/15 but I’ll update that next week. current targets (which also need updating) are 2065, 2041 and 2025.

    1. Thank you so much for the timely reply, Mjmateer. Even with a target of 2065 for SP500 next week, that’s a good correction for me. I think this prediction is in line with the Triangle hypothesis of Purvez. Scott also made a call for a correction next week. $USHL5 has a downtrend since late March, but there’s no decent correction to play out yet. This is very frustrating.

  156. of course it could be more tape painting from a trade from yesterday, is that possible? 33mm shares of SPY traded after hours so far today

  157. the dark pool HFT traders were huge buyers earlier in the week w/ SPY at 207 ish. after today, they are net short. 155mm shares traded today. bag holders?

    or does the bradley turn date of 5.10.15 signify a major move up or a major top.

    as nicolas reminds us, all governments have to do is issue more monopoly money to themselves, buy stocks like Swiss bank did and issue more bonds. no different than $2 trillion in corporate buybacks since 2009.

    i still think we see 204-206 before then end of May in the spy. apparently so do the dark pools who are now NET short on the week.

    check out the link below

  158. summation index has completely rolled over and was -ve friday despite the upmove, most of the 20 indicators I track or bearish to neutral. Transports still lagging and no new lows for the Vix yet.

    1. Buffet is a chameleon.
      He supposedly hates gold, but went deeply into silver, in the 1980s I recall. I’d bet money he owns some gold right now.

      His holdings in all of the financial companies pre credit crunch were so *productive* they barely survived thanks to taxpayer funded rescues, via TARP etc. Capitalism at its croniest.

      He needs you to buy his equities, so he talks his book, he’s a fraud.

    2. RD, Buffet by nature is anti-gold for exactly that reason. He is a “buy for dividend” investor and thus hates gold.
      As for the article you posted it is typical of the majority of anti-gold articles that sight gold’s lack of income earning potential as a reason to avoid it.
      The other argument they use against gold is the, “well if you bought in 1980 and still held today you would be so far under water you’d have drowned years ago”……..that is one of Martin Armstrong’s favourites.

      Gold is not a buy and hold proposition. Never ever was, never ever will be. Gold is a buy on extreme fear, sell on irrational excuberance proposition.

      In 2000 gold sentiment was the worst it had been in 2 decades. Hardly anyone wanted anything to do with it. I remember my brother,s mate went to an investment adviser who told him “buy anything but gold”.

      In 2011 gold was going “to da moon”. You couldn’t speak a bad word about it without getting dragged out into the street and beaten to within an inch of your life.
      Even Goldman Sachs hoped on the badwagon stating that prices were headed north of 2k. 18 months before that they were bearish. We all know by now, or should know, that GS do and think the opposite of what they everyone else.

      We’ve gone full circle, by end of 2014 sentiment toward gold and gold stocks was the lowest since 2000.
      I have been and continue to be a huge buyer of the only asset class in the world not absurdly overvalued.

      Forget the negative press.

    1. The Fed cut from 2000-03, and from 2007-09 too.
      Central banks are impotent, monetarism is already dead.
      Rejoice!

    1. Richard, do you ever consider that the news sources you link to are both biased and dumb?
      Can recommend Alhambra blog for more detailed unbiased analysis.

      jeger, the market sheep care what he thinks. A useful contrary indicator of the systemic blindness to what lies ahead. Of course the Buffet equities to GDP measure is in the clouds. But he can’t sell out can he? Leech.

      1. Bubbles can’t be blown without a bias. The dumb ones are the Small Specs who oppose the Herd when the Herd is stampeding. Markets can remain irrational much longer than Small Specs can remain financed against them.

        Elliot is based upon the mood swings of the Herd from Optimism to Pessimism where “facts” have little to do with it. The Solar Cycle is just one more “fact” that moves the Herd from Pessimism to Optimism and back to Pessimism again but the Solar Cycle is not the only ‘fact” that sways the Herd.

        1. OK, as long as you realise these news sources are biased, and those reading here are similarly aware. One day the herd will wake up to reality.

  159. When Buffett castigated gold at Harvard in 1998 (I’m not sure of the month so I’ll just guess the middle month, June) the price of an oz was about 290 US dollars. The Nasdaq, in June of that year, was trading at about 1200. The barbarous relic is keeping pace with the New Economy; both are worth roughly four times as much. It doesn’t have to produce anything, Grandpa Warren. It is the ultimate good. It is money.

  160. Thanks for the feedback. No doubt WB would have a stash of precious metals under his bed. His mate Jim Rogers is very bullish on precious metals.
    Al, I love your passion re gold and the logic behind it but do you think that silver is worth a look. Seems to me that there is a large spread between the two especially in AUD’s. http://goldprice.org/
    I know silver is a lot more awkward to handle but it is used in most manufactured gadgets and is classed also as an industrial metal.

  161. Buffett thinks bonds overvalued. $TYX produces double top breakout, $TNX double top can follow. Its all about milking rates to the very last drop. Better put that low paying economic recovery on hold.

  162. Not only mother’s day, but May 10th is:

    http://bradleysiderograph.com/2015-turn-dates-sp500/

    2015 Bradley Bars Turn Dates for the S&P 500 (Bradley Siderograph)

    May 10 (31/100 Bradley Siderograph Power; Note that a Declinations Turn Date also occurs on this date with a Bradley Bars Power of 100/100).
    May 25 (31/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)
    June 8 (28/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)
    September 23 (32/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)
    October 17 (48/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)

  163. In 2014, the bradley siderograph had 2 occurrrences of 100/100 power declinations:

    http://bradleysiderograph.com/2014-turn-dates-sp500/

    July 23rd : S&P at 1987. August 7th S&P at 1909 (80 point drop)

    Dec 17th : S&P at 2012. Up 30 points from previous day. continued to 2090 on Dec 29th.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC+Interactive#

    Declinations and turn dates can go in either direction. Was Friday’s monster move up a precursor of continuation like the Dec 16th to Dec 29th move ?

    Or is it a significant short term top like July 23rd.

    Some major move is about to occur. Given it took 155 million shares on a lousy job report just to get back to previous resistance on Friday and the VXV/VIN and VXX ratios are back to bearish territory is the reason for my thesis we will see recent lows retested in the coming days.

    Good luck all

  164. Even though Sun Spots are occurring nearer the equator Solar Activity is on the increase once again.

    Any thoughts, Mark?

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