Category: Commodities

Roundup

Posted on Posted in Commodities, Macro, Solar Cycles, Stocks25 Comments

Yesterday we had a geomagnetic storm that although forecast was stronger than predicted. Today is the full moon. Later today we have the Greek swap decision result. Tomorrow is the key US jobs report. I will be letting all that play out and see on Monday whether there might be trade opportunities.

The storm:

With reports of enough creditor consent to pass the Greek debt swap, the markets may get satisfaction, but as one or two on here have suggested, the Euro debt issue may rise again. I keep my eyes on CDSs and yields and although still contained currently, the Spain CDS chart looks like it has unfinished business eventually ahead – still in a solid long term uptrend:

Source: Bloomberg

Supportive of such developments would be Spain’s peak debt rollovers this year:

Source: Bloomberg / Acting Man

Turning to the stock market, a look at the US small caps that rolled over first shows them already at rising support, whilst there remains a lower twin support of fib and horizontal s/r.

Laslo Birinyi has been in the media making analogies based on bull market internals and action that followed overall sideways years like 2011, and quotes  1982 and 1990, both very bullish years that just kept on rising.

Source: CNBC / Ticker Sense

Meanwhile, Market Anthropology make an analogy with 1994 which implies first a pullback then revisit of the highs in April for a double topping process.

Source: Market Anthropology

And turning to gold, we see it has bounced at the 38 fib and has the potential to make an inverted head and shoulder pattern.

And Goldrunner indentifies similar chart patterns from 2005 and 2006 that would be supportive of a bullish upward break from here.

Source: Goldrunnerfractalanalysis

The problem with analogies and fractals is that even the most compelling can sometimes turn out to be red herrings. Recall that stocks in the first 9 months of 2011 made a series of waves that looked very similar to the 2007 top. It was only once a higher low was printed in November that the fractal was decisively negated. That said, historic repetitions and time cycles are fundamental in my approach and I can point to many that work out. The Mammis sentiment cycle was a recent example of an analogy that played out very accurately.

Sunspots and Geomagnetism

Posted on Posted in Commodities, Solar Cycles, Stocks18 Comments

The solar peak is forecast for February/March 2013, which means sunspot counts should peak around then. The chart below shows that sunspots picked up from their December 2008 minimum gradually, becoming significant in 2011. In the last few months though, they appear to have died away.

This does not mean the solar cycle has peaked early, but reflects the oscillations of sunspot levels around a trend. Below is an overlay of this solar cycle (24) into the end of 2011 on top of solar cycle 14, which was a ‘spikey’ cycle. Less powerful solar cycles, such as both of these, are typically more spikey.

Source: SolarHam

It follows then, that we should expect an up-cycle of sunspots now, lasting perhaps several months, and if we zone in on a smaller timescale, we see evidence that this is perhaps now beginning, with a sudden increase in the last few days.

We can see from the above chart that sunspots rallied last year between February and November, or perhaps in two distinct upswings of February-April and September-November.

I have just produced a 26 page PDF on my new IN DEPTH GUIDE page which explains the relations between solar cycles and the financial markets in detail, so here I’ll just summarise that rising sunspots correlate with (i) earthquakes (ii) protest, revolution and war (iii) pro-risk and inflation.

The 7 most major earthquakes of 2011 all occurred in the two windows of Feb-Mar and Sept-Nov, corresponding to the upswings in sunspots. The Arab Spring revolutions main events began with the Tunisian overthrow in January and ending in the Libyan war finishing in October, again corresponding to the overall period of rising sunspots. And lastly, both significant inflation and outperformance in gold lasted between January and September, again tying in with the sunspot rally.

So, if sunspot counts begin to accelerate now and rise to new heights over the next few months (which we should expect as we are getting nearer to the solar peak), we should be alert for (i) earthquakes (ii) protest, revolution and war (e.g. Iran) and (iii) pro-risk and inflation, namely commodities rising and in turn inflation. Clearly (ii) could impact (iii) as oil could rise on supply jeopardy and gold as security.

As yet, we still do not see outperformance in commodities versus stocks, but at some point soon this should begin to occur, as by solar cycles a secular peak in commodities should occur in 2013. The chart below shows how stocks outfperformed commodies into their secular of March 2000, breaking away from their usual combined risk-on relations, and we should expect something similar from commodities into 2013.

Now turning to geomagnetism, we see a pick up in both actual and forecast geomagnetism that reflects the historic seasonality of geomagnetism, that typically is at a maximum in March and April. This negatively affects sentiment, and therefore we see in the models for stocks and commodities some short term downward pressure.

If we look at the medum term view we can see a clear flattening out and tipping over of the model:

This means headwinds for pro-risk until geomagnetism begins to ebb again, which by historic seasonality would be May-time.

This appears contradictory – rising sunspots ahead supportive of pro-risk, but significant geomagnetism ahead anti-risk. To further complicate things, rising sunspots typically lead to higher episodes of geomagnetism (though a lag can be common). A simplistic analogy would be that some alchohol (solar activity) makes for human excitability, but too much can also make for a lagged hangover (geomagnetism).

Returning to the chart above that shows stocks accelerating away from 1998-2000 in their secular mania finale, stocks actually took off from the geomagnetism model in this period, as might be expected in ‘irrational exuberance’. We should see the same therefore in commodities this time round into 2013. What I suggest could happen therefore, is that from amongst protests, revolution, war and earthquakes, we get a sunspot-inspired supply/security push on commodities, and a sunspot-inspired pro-risk/inflationary flow into commodity demand, which takes commodities above and away from the geomagnetism model, whilst stocks remain on the geomagnetism model track of sideways peformance. In other words, if a commodities secular finale is ahead, completing in 2013 (as solar cycles history predicts), then the period ahead is a window in which commodities should start to outperform.

Precious Metals

Posted on Posted in Commodities7 Comments

In the 1940s rising (secular) commodities played a key role in rising inflation. However, the US government maintained an environment of negligible interest rates, surpressed to hold down the costs of excess government debt built up in WW2. It did this by intervening in the money supply, much like today, and the result was debasement of the US dollar. Eventually it had to abandon the policy in 1951 as it had led to an explosion of debt monetization and uncontained inflation. However, the policy was successful in that it provided the sovereign debt support until a new cycle of growth was underway (a new secular stocks bull and the end of the inflationary commodities bull, a transition complete by 1951).

Source: Bianco Research

Fast forward to today and we have a very similar scenario of secular commodities bull, problematic inflation (especially when real undoctored inflation stats are considered), surpressed negligible rates, money supply intervention and currency debasement. Given the historical precedent, we might consider that central banks in the indebted developed nations might be successul in maintaining their manipulation policies until a new cycle of growth and a new secular stocks bull emerges. By solar cycles, that is likely to take hold in late 2014 or in 2015. Recently the Fed extended its commitment to ultra low rates until late 2014, which fits well.

Negative real interest rates are therefore likely to persist for some time yet, not just maintained by the Fed but also by the ECB, BOE and Japanese central bank. Precious metals perform well in an environment of negative real interest rates, but also as all these major currencies are debased simultaneously, hard money becomes a refuge, maintaining value.

Source: Tom McClellan

As the above chart shows, based on the last secular commodities bull finale of the late 1970s, precious metals may cease to do well when we have evidence of real interest rates starting to trend upwards. In other words, the secular uptrends in gold and silver may come to an end when central banks begin to signal an end to low interest rates and inflation starts to ebb.

Marc Faber blames money printing and negligible rates for a series of bubbles in the early 21st century, and expects more bubbles in the next couple of years as this backdrop continues. With currency debasement and negative real returns in cash and bonds, precious metals continue to look an attractive class for bubble-blowing. If precious metals peaked in 2011, as some suggest, then we will print a historic anomaly over the next couple of years whereby hard money performs poorly in an environment of negative real interest rates and currency debasement.

One key factor in the long term secular swinging between hard and paper assets is the supply lag of around in mines and energy fields from plan to production of around 10 years. Since the onset of the current commodities secular bull in 2000, supply in gold stayed flat through to 2010, but grew almost 4% in 2011 as new mines (initiated since 2000) finally started to reach production. However, offsetting that, central banks bought more gold in 2011 than any year since 1964, a net purchase of 440 tonnes. The central banks in question are mainly from the developing world, and they are seeking to diversify their increasing reserves away from one or two main currencies (namely, the ones being debased). Whilst demand for precious metals for technology and jewellery has weakened slightly, it remains robust. So although investment demand is the growth area in demand, it has not become totally dominant, and the situation remains healthy.

Disinvestment in gold is expected to begin around 2015 (again, fitting well with solar cycle predictions). Morgan Stanley estimates show a peak in demand in 2014, and supply increasing each year the next 3 years as more mines come on stream.

Source: Morgan Stanley

In line with the history of secular commodity inversions, that sets us up for lagged supply to be increasing as demand starts to drop, providing a gap between the two that will form the backdrop to a secular commodities bear. This change should occur around 2014-2015, just as a new growth cycle begins supporting a stocks bull, and the central banks drop their negligible interest rate policy.

Comparing previous secular commodity bull conclusions, we have not seen a speculative mania phase in precious metals, and nor have we reached the extremes in stocks:commodities and housing:commodities ratios that we would expect. We might counter that by acknowledging the commodities bull is mature and this asset class is historically relatively expensive to the others now, if not at an abolute extreme. However, looking ahead in 2012 and 2013, negative real interest rates, currency debasement and the demand-supply picture make it probable, in my opinion, that we will see that speculative ascent. The main threat to this scenario would be another major event or deflationary shock. But as we saw in 2008 and 2011, this only had a temporary effect of depressing precious metals, rather than inducing a major trend reversal.

This Week

Posted on Posted in Commodities, Currencies, Macro, Stocks5 Comments

Will we finally see a downside break for equities this week? The Vix is still trying to make a rounded bottom, CS fear remains excessively high, Market Breadth has weakened, certain indicators remain overbullish and overbought. There is still no ‘screaming sell’ but note that US small caps have already broken:

I have highlighted on that Russell 2000 chart the confluence of horizontal support and the 61 fib, and the large rising wedge, which should act as support if downside in the other indices materialises. Large caps, currently outperforming, may correct less.

The full moon takes place this Thursday and the bottom by my models is around Friday. Due to some persistent geogmagnetism, my short term model has now tipped over a little. Here is it versus the CRB commodity index and around the lunar oscillations lower highs and lower lows can now be seen:

We see silver, the US dollar and stocks all at important junctions:

Source both: Chris Kimble 

So might we see the US dollar resuming an uptrend here, silver dropping to the bottom of its downward channel in a continued correction, and the stocks rally ending?

Well, by history, it is unlikely that the strong rally in equities of the last few months suddenly reverses here. We should expect a drawn out topping process as a minumum. In other words, if equities pull back here, we should expect them then to revisit the highs, or make new highs, whilst seeing internals weaken and greater divergences come to light.

There is an extreme in bullishness in energy, particularly oil. That suggests a pullback in crude is imminent. But there is likely to be demand-supply and geopolitical support from the underside. Pro-risk typically moves together. So as it is unlikely that equities enter a significant downtrend here, it is also unlikely for commodities. Neither precious metals nor agriculture display overbought or overbullish readings like energy.

On the macro front, ECRI leading indicators rose again in Friday’s reading, but China data today surprised to the downside. Euro debt and CDSs remain well contained, with the exception of Greece. Credit markets continue to improve. Some key analysts still expect the Fed to announce QE3 or some kind of new balance sheet expansion in the next 6 months. Goldmans expect it already in the first half of the year. I can’t see it on the current improvement in data, but given their expectations I will keep it on the radar. Next FOMC is 13 March.

To sum up, my personal expectation is that pro-risk markets retreat this week, into my model bottom around 9 March. I don’t see it as an opportunity to short or to pull out of commodity longs, as I expect we have not marked a major top, and that this will be digestion. Rather, we should at least be revisiting the highs, or more likely exceeding the highs, after a consolidation, and in doing so we will be able to judge better whether a topping process is unfolding. Treasury yields continue to display a potential rounded bottoming, which could signify much more pro-risk appetite ahead, fitting with a secular commodities bull conclusion, and would support only digestion of gains here.

This Week

Posted on Posted in Commodities, Macro, Stocks19 Comments

Last week we saw leading indicators ticking up for Korea, USA (both ECRI and CB) and Spain. Evidence is accumulating for a new business cycle upswing. Looking back at previous such cycles, 6-9 months is fairly typical for such a cycle to play out, and this next chart suggests a 9 month upswing may be ahead this time.

Source: Chris Puplava

Drawing in my previous analysis on how events have unfolded into solar/secular commodities peaks, we have a potential sequence of events here. Growth and pro-risk advance as a whole before excessive inflation and commodity mania.  Stocks do well into late 2012 before turning down as commodities diverge towards the end. Commodities rise into the secular peak of Feb-Mar 2013 before excessive oil prices help bring on a recession, with stocks turning down several months ahead of the recession as a leading indicator.

Underlying source: Dshort

What are the threats to this scenario? Well, the business cycle upswing is still tentative at this point. Leading indicators for some countries are still negative. China had to lower its reserve ratio this weekend to stimulate lending. Sovereign debt could flare again, and Greece remains unresolved at the time of writing, with the March payment deadline approaching. However, I expect resolution on Greece ahead of the deadline, and I expect leading indicators for the laggard countries to turn up in the weeks ahead. At this point, emerging from an extreme in global anti-risk appetite reached at the end of 2011, and with a natural business cycle upswing supercharged by the range of central bank counter-responses over the last 6 months, I believe the weight of evidence supports a growthflationary finale from here into the solar peak, in line with history.

Shorter term, I still expect a pullback in equities, for the following reasons.

1. We continue to flirt with overbought and overbullish readings.

Source: IndexIndicators

Source: TheTechnicalTake

2. We approach Fib resistance

Source: Afraid To Trade

3. CS Fear Barometer has potentially topped ahead of the market:

Source: Bloomberg

and 4. We have a DeMark sell set up (the conditions in place for a period of retreat, if not the momentum).

We don’t have a full set of top indicators, but we have ‘enough’ for a pullback.

Now to add to this, POMO sales could add to the likelihood of a pullback from here into the end of Feb.

Source: McOscillator

Plus, we have a new moon tomorrow, my models suggest a top the day after, and a geomagnetic disturbance is in progress again, shown by the arrow, adding weight to a seasonal pick up in geomagnetism, which is a headwind.

For now, economic surprises remain in an uptrend for the major economies, but perhaps topping out for the US. As a mean reverter, it is a matter of time before we start to see more disappointments versus estimates than beats. Some are predicting a US jobs figures major disappointment on the first Friday of March. As we enter March, geomagnetic seasonality should pick up yet more.

So, tomorrow and Wednesday I will be looking at potentially taking profits on my remaing stock indices longs, and will report if/when I do. However, I do not see this as a major top that I wish to short, but rather of an overbought/overbullish pullback. I maintain the expectation of commodities beginning to outperform, and will not be taking profits in commodities but rather holding into the solar peak (unless the picture radically changes).