High Stakes

Still the bulls have the ball, and still we can’t say for sure whether we are in a bear or a bull market.

Bullish percent, volatility and breadth still make this look like a bear market rally. The SP500 is at the 200MA. If this is a bear then it would be normal to be repelled here, making this the ideal second chance peak to short. If this is a bull then we might still expect a pullback like in 2011 before breaking back above the 200MA again.

22octo2

If instead equities power directly upwards back to the highs, then it would be another thrust like in October 2014.

Here we see that it is US large caps which are looking particularly bullish, whereas US small caps, junk bonds and the FTSE (and most other indices) all look more bearish.

23octo4

However, note how in Q4 2014 junk bonds and leveraged loans diverged negatively but turned out to be a false signal as they ultimately recovered once stocks were more cemented in new highs.

23octo1

That chart also shows that the rally this Oct has not been as impulsive as last Oct, with the RSI showing a negative divergence and not being stuck in the green.

Additionally, the chart shows the 6 month range of 2015 (boxed). Anyone who bought in that period is underwater and this should create supply from above with price now back at the bottom of that range.

Here we see NAAIM manager exposure. Typically this has been a smart indicator, diverging before important peaks. The current reading is particularly low. This and other low indicators (e.g. II sentiment, Rydex) are bearish unless they reverse. If they start to reverse strongly higher then they become a tailwind.

23octo2

And then there is gold and miners. A relief rally was due once bullish percent was at zero again around August. But is this the start of something bigger?

23octo23

So, there are various tests here. If we are indeed in a bear market (my belief) then we should see (1) stocks repelled from around the 200MA (2) continued weakness in small caps, junk bonds and other riskier assets, no catch up with large caps (3) gold maintaining outperformance relative to stocks.

As things stand, US earnings have exceeded expectations but expectations were low. Currently, Q3 blended earnings are -3.3%, revenue -3.9%. Q4 forecast blended earnings -1.2%, revenue -1.4%. If we take out energy then these turn positive. So that takes us back to the question of whether oil has been a leading indicator deflationary recession here, or whether low energy prices can be a tailwind. But either way, current earnings cast doubt on the renewed bull scenario.

ECRI leading indicators are negative whilst Conference Board leading indicators are positive, but one key difference is that CB use the yield curve whilst ECRI doesn’t. The yield curve can’t turn negative under ZIRP so that creates some artificial levitation in the CB LEI.

The global picture is one of a world economy on the edge. The question remains whether we are seeing an unstoppable negative feedback looping or just another soft patch, and this will become clearer as time passes. ECB dovishness and a China rate cut both produced positive market reactions – as has been the norm in the last couple of years – but neither ECB QE nor China rate cuts have worked so far and the question is whether central banks are fairly impotent in reality.

The world stock index looks like this:

23octo8

More in keeping with the bearish scenario than the bull.

So, can US large caps lead everything back up again, or are they the last point of strength in a succession of roll overs (oil, emerging markets, China, small caps, Biotech)? Just got to wait and see here, but we are closing on some key checkpoints.

There were lots of people bearish down at the Aug and Sept lows who are now bullish at the Oct highs. Perhaps goes without saying but that’s trading the wrong way round. If you were bullish and bought around the lows, then now may be the ideal time to lighten up as we hit the 200MA and the overhead supply zone. If you side with indicators of a bear market then now is perhaps the ideal price area to be adding or entering short. Turning long from short here or building long at this point is rather unlikely to bear fruit. Never investment advice of course, but we all see these common errors made as people are sucked into the waves of sentiment.

I maintain the likelihood is of a pullback next (historical analogs, RSI divergence, overhead supply and 200MA), from which point the bull/bear balance should start to tip decisively one way.

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319 thoughts on “High Stakes

      1. I have gone long Treasuries meaning I am expecting higher prices as interest rates fall and/or a rush to safety as stocks reverse lower. Note that the R2k is not confirming the rally in other US stock indexes.

        I have gone long Treasuries as they are better then “Cash is King” in an economic downturn and because the trend is strongly for lower interest rates around the globe –and– the DOW might not make a new ATH before the downturn.

        1. Richard I, I’ve been wanting to ask you this for a very VERY LOOOONG time but I don’t know how to do it without sounding offensive. However I’ve reached ‘breaking point’ so please, please excuse the rudeness of the question:

          Are you schizophrenic?

          The VERY EARLY part of your commentary on John H’s previous post were suggesting imminent Armageddon and then towards the end they were suggesting FULL ON euphoria to new ATH.

          Here you are now again suggesting that new ATHs are no longer on the table.

          I myself am a Gemini and therefore understand what it is to be able to ‘take both sides of the argument’, but you appear to have a degree higher of ‘conviction’ on BOTH SIDES.

          Whilst I read ‘ALL POSTS’ by everyone I’m beginning to reach a point with yours where I tend to skip over them….simply because ‘it does my head in’ to follow your ‘flip flopping’.

          I’ll persevere for a while longer but it is possible that I may give up entirely. Sorry.

        2. No, purez, I am not “schizophrenic”. I am successfully trading the markets. I have just changed by Delta Intermediate and Medium rotations of the Grains to their I-7s as highs that brought in a Medium high Inbetween point.

        3. Richard I, please allow me to apologise again. I KNOW (from your posts) that you are a very successful trader. It’s just that you seem to have convictions in both directions that make it difficult to know whether you are expecting an ‘up’ or a ‘down’ market.

          I try and take each person here’s contribution and assess what is happening. I just find that I can’t (don’t) have a handle on what your medium term expectations are.

          Never the less I wish you continued success with your trades. And again my apologies for an impertinent question.

  1. Thank you John H a MILLION times for your clarity of thought and expression. It has been a very good beacon.

    Today’s out of hours action has me worried though…at least on the DJIA. I had not expected the 18th Aug highs where the BIG down wave started to have been breached. (It’s still intact on the S&P)

    I therefore have to give consideration to Alphahorn, Peter_ and Richard’s, amongst others, call for a new ATH.

    This is what I wrote on the previous post before I realised this new one was out:

    ================

    The ‘BIG’ question, in my mind, is whether today’s PBOC gifted push completes the 5th of the 5th wave from the 29th Sept low or are we still within the 3rd of the 5th?

    Having put my emotions on check with a dose or 3 of Vallium (hence an objective judgement ) 🙂 I’m going to say we are in a 5th of a 5th, although on the micro count we could still reach 17700 before it all fizzles out.

    Repeating another poster’s sentiment here….this is TIRESOME.

    Please will the last bear hand themselves in to the Bull Police so that we can get on with the job of having a ‘recession’/’depression’.

    There I said both the ‘r’ word and the ‘d’ word in one sentence.

    ===================

    The above comment may prove to be total wishful thinking.

    Reply

  2. Hi all ! I’m just back from a trip to Europe. It was an amazing trip, really beautiful. Don’t laugh, it’s true.
    Ok, so I see that all the major indices are near the highs once again. I hope you shorts didn’t lose too much money.
    My AMZN is surging after tremendous earnings. Everything is going well although I admit that my IBB is struggling a bit.
    We also had excellent news on the central bank front: the FED is not raising rates, bank of China cutting rates today, the ECD is printing like crazy and promising more. Again, the central banks are doing an outstanding job and we should all be grateful.
    Best regards.

    1. We are not laughuing, Nickolas. Of course, you went to Europe and got back just in time for the rebound. And surely there is no internet in Europe. Here is to you not traveling to Asia next time there is a crash! LOLz.

      1. Reb, Nicholas taking trips during ‘down turns’ just shows the courage of his convictions.

        Most ‘ordinary’ folks here would be sitting nervously at their computers as things ‘unfolded’ against them.

        Nicholas is made of MUCH STERNER stuff.

        One day, I’m hoping, he’ll tell us when he becomes bearish. I intend to have mega leverage on that deal.

      1. BlueStar, much as a ‘bunch’ of us would LOVE that scenario, we would all feel a lot better if you also told us why you believe that to be that case.

        Thx

  3. I have been incessant in pointing out all the horrible revenue reports. NOW, I will point out the shining stars. AMZN & GOOG….. WOW!!! These jokers know how to make money. Hail to the new stalwarts in the making. Good Job!!!

    Ok, I am done. Back to the rest of the economy. NOT GOOD!!!

    BTW MSFT did good too, but alot of it came from some 30,000 layoffs, ie cost cutting. I do not see them as true growth here, but maybe, just maybe, they might become a well managed company. Time will tell.

  4. I find it surprising that there are still so many bears amongst us while QQQ is near ATH again. Just an observation. Truly amazing market. Even Richard I is bring his 2026 crash call forward 11 years today.

        1. Possibly, but I am by no means 100% certain. I have other reasons too, but all under uncertainty unfortunately.

          I like the fact that the average 8th year of a president is down — that says a lot because you can find a lot of indicators and even the best ones like Sell-In-May do not give a negative return for the bad periods.

  5. Today, another major Fibo has been reached in the DOW. I would like to short the DOW but I am going long US treasuries instead because I think that is a wiser move for the time being or I would short the DOW at these levels. The divergence of US stock indexes is getting to far stretched especially with higher profits on lower revenues. A sudden sell-off in stocks is possible but who knows when.

  6. We have a Bi-Polar market that reminds me of the 2000 era. Those that disappoint get obliterated, and those that perform get coronated with crown. This was the case at the begining of the end in the late 1990’s. It can go on for long periods, but I do not see the economic activity to support it. In the late 1990’s Employment was sooooo good, you got huge signing bonuses just for coming on board. I was lucky enough to get one. But my stock options ended up worthless by 2003. We had huge parties all the time and corporate spending was part of doing business. Golf Outings at PGA courses, you name it and we were doing it. Anyone remember Dennis Kozlowski? He was lambasted for his activites, but back then, it was not so unusual. Most young people in the job market today cannot even imagine such success.

    My Point is that anyone expecting some jubilation here when the economy is clearly under some significant duress, may be due for a surprise. What is going to drive this move higher? Are you soon going to have to pay the bank to hold your money? Take a look at the FED Balance sheet and tell me how this will be reconciled?

    As I continue to say, I am selling on any upswing, but as JH pointed out the up moves are not that great in most stocks and my core holdings have not moved up much. Holding for now. Selling on any significant up moves.

    The positives are that I do see value starting to emerge, but I am not a buyer now.

    Be careful folks!

  7. Bears will get killed. Again, i have a lot of respect for John but he’s been way way off for years now. Central banks are too powerful, bear just cannot win.

  8. S&P P/S ratio is back to all times high, exceeding all times average by almost 200%. Of course it will continue going up, lol.

  9. Nicolas is just a troll, just don’t feed it.

    Everyone is wrong quite often, it doesn’t matter as long as you are making a profit that is worthwhile.

    J

    1. 11:45 central , SPX appears to be in a wave 4 here. This means the last 5 up on Fri. wasn’t a 5th wave failure ( most likely v:3).
      This also means one more 5 up is likely and it should be the last one. If so, it will coincide with the full moon. My plan was to short SP on the next 5 leg up. I have projections to 2085 to 2090SPX band. But rather than depend on the projections, I usually count the legs.
      Many bears have flipped the card because of the strength last Wed. thru Fri.. When a trade appears obvious, the market makers, or fate, makes it difficult to get on board.

        1. Yaaaay!! The Bull Police now have no one else to round up!! Yipppee we can finally go down. Thanks pulp.

        2. Last upside SPX gap closed 2080. Leading JSE T40 futures double topped pre US open. Bulls may choose a small corrective wave in an ongoing uptrend but I just developed gout in my big toe first time since 2008.

        3. Keep hearing the comment that commercials being massively short on the COMEX is a signal that metals are about collapse.
          Possibly?……..however they are NOT always right as most believe. For one, they were forced to cover from 2010 all the way into 2011 before they gained control, but not before taking a huge hit.

          The COMEX and commercials are going to lose ther dominance to the SGE which is governed by physical rather than paper contracts and the large commercials will lose their significance in determinng price as they do now the majority of the time.

          The physical market will eventually show the COMEX for the total frace that it is.
          The transition is already well underway and most are totally oblivious to it.

        4. Steve T:
          “For the past several weeks I have primarily been a lurker although I have posted regularly before that for the past 18-20 months since I followed this blog. It seems so many folks have come out of the woodwork and making grand claims backed up by such-and-such logic as to what will happen in the stock market, and it really is too challenging to really believe who is correct or really possess a strong foundation or methodology. In some ways all of this extra crowd noise now drowns everyone else out, especially those who post like up to ten times daily, and probably the reason I have resorted to lurking rather than contributing since now no one hears or listens to the tree that topples in the middle of a forest.

          I will only state this one important observation. For those who followed the blog at least one year ago, there was significant bearish sentiment during the Sep/Oct 2014 nose dive. On the fast and sharp recovery many folks figured it was a dead cat bounce and kept looking for shorting opportunities which was dead wrong, or only slightly better, holding on to hugely profitable shorts that evaporated into huge losses. Numerous reasons were given to attempt to explain why it all acted in this manner, but the bottom line is to understand the lesson the market was teaching everyone and move on as a wiser investor.

          Fast forward to today’s Aug/Sep 2015 plummet which was even more severe than autumn 2014. For those of you who peruse this blog for over a year benefit from or learn anything that happened about a year ago? If you could go back in time and do anything different what would you do different?

          Think about that action, and instead of going back in time, merely apply that rational and sound reasoning in TODAY’s market! It really is that uncomplicated …”
          ———————————————————————

          Thanks for posting again, it has become quite busy on here of late.

          As you are a fairly succinct contributor, I will ask you a question. What is the fascination with past events? Quite a few here like to look at charts from last year, 5 years ago, 25 years ago, 75 years ago, 250 years ago and look for a pattern that happened then and somehow project some future outcome onto a similar pattern currently. What relevance does last year’s action have to do with this year? Or more importantly what relevance did it have before it happened? What happened the previous year? Most importantly, what is going to happen in 2016? If it is not that complicated, I am sure you can explain this even to one as simple as me?

          I am sure you can see the problem in posting what you did? The question I ask myself is “so why did Steve T post that” – bearing in mind that as far as I have seen in the past, your IQ levels are not in single digits…….

          Apologies for the somewhat harsh tone, but it would be hard to accept a post as stupid as that without some challenge…..I put it on par with me saying (in 2010) something like “well, in 1998/1999 it was very OBVIOUS that the same was going to happen in 2008/2009. This is because the years end in 8 or 9. Did you learn nothing?”

          Disappointed? Yes, I am.

          J

        5. PALS next two weeks for SPX:

          Declination: nothing good next two weeks
          Phase: positive next two weeks, especially after this Wed.
          Distance: nothing good especially first three days of next week 9,10,11th of Nov.
          Tides: bottom this Thursday (big sell off sometimes occurs into bottoming), then
          rise until Nov 13th.
          Seasonals: strong except for this Friday, and next Mon, Tues, Wed
          Planets: neutral

          Summary: based upon PALS I will be looking for prices to be lower by three to four percent sometime between now and November 13th. Hard to predict exact turns but next two weeks should at best be flat selling until low tide on Thursday and then swinging up and back into end of next week.

  10. Nat Gas (UNG) – This has not been a good trading vehicle for me yet, but I am sticking to it. Fall is coming to an end the power companies are set to burn Nat Gas like crazy this winter. Today is an unusually high down period, so I just went in long for a short term trade. It definitely looks way over sold right now and a bounce seems reasonable. I am expecting this Winter to surprise to the cold side with some big storms and spike Nat Gas. Nat Gas is starting to outpace coal on total Megawatts. The reduction of production has not occured as of yet, but I suspect it will in due time.

    1. We have a classic rally back to the downward sloping 200 day ma in the mkt averages. That is bearish and is usually an Elliott 2 up’ That means one of 3 down should be starting now.
      The surviving goldbug letter writers are coming out of the woodwork with bullishness. They can’t always be wrong, but it is making me doubt much of a rally, The commodity top in 1980 did not hit bottom for six years ie 2017.

    2. Ironically, natgas is one of the few commodites under accumulation by producers in the Commitments of Traders data. The basic rule though is you start buying when they stop buying(commercials have accumulated all they want.) They have been buying for 18 months and still are. The oil crash was preceded by 5 years of heavy selling by commercials reaching levels 5 times what they had been prior to their accumulation.

      1. I believe the buying is huge, because with these prices the demand is going to be huge. Electricity demand using Nat Gas is growing rapidly and at some point thie demand and the expected shrinking Nat Gas output will create a balance that will eventually raise prices until it makes sense to start drilling again. Right now, many rigs are shutting down, so the known fracking production degradation will happen, although I have not seen it decline much just yet. It has leveled off. Today, I am just making a technical call for a quick turn that Nat Gas is oversold. I am willing to wait it out if I do not get the bounce.

    3. This Sunday evening, I feel your pain. It looks like both Crude and Copper are going to fail at finding support at their 50 day sma’s. Should that happen, NG could fall to the floor especially if stocks reverse and collapse in an Elliot major 3rd wave decline.

      (This Sunday evening NG has “gapped” to the downside). It should be noted that I have reversed my Delta Intermediate and Medium rotations for the Grains implying lower prices to come and that means no demand for fertilizer which is primarily made from NG. Why no demand for fertilizer? Because both Corn and Soybeans futures are trading lower than USA farmers cost of production which means they can not, or will not, be placing orders for fertilizers for next year’s crops. Good Luck (you are going to need it).

  11. Valley,

    How does it look for next week. Did you go log on thursday morning, it was difficult as market was up quite strong.

    1. I made a few hundred dollar buying calls Friday. Missed out Thursday cause I was waiting for sell off that didnt happen. Overall was flat for week. Next week looking for weakness Monday Tuesday, and very strong Wednes Thurs Fri and this is all based on the last three days effect of October which are super bullish. So next week I am not really using PALS as is shows strength Monday Tuesday and weakness after, but price is way up and don’t want to buy high. So waiting for sell off to go long. Seasonals next 7 weeks are so unique it dwarfs other effects.

  12. Congrats to all longs. It was a tremendous week. I would also like to congratulate the central banks. They are doing a mind boggling job to drive the markets higher.

  13. The radically rising USD is dropping the odds of a rate rise by the FED to zero anytime soon. Problem is that the S+P 500 companies get over half their profits from outside the USA and a rising USD lowers their foreign profits.

  14. some of you make trading a lot harder than it really is by buying into being either “bullish” or “bearish” rather than just taking what the market offers at the moment. We correctly called and predicted the top in the spring and the rapid fall to the bottom. I was bearish in May and went bullish at 1867. Having tools you can trust is the key.

  15. Valley,
    Could you educate me on PALS approach. The L=Lunar Phase?, which is to go long 4 calendar days after the FM to 4 days after New moon. The A=Apogee?, is that to go long 8 days before perigee? Is that position held until 8 days before Perigee? I believe that your S is for Seasonality? And P=Planets, correct? I am sure you have discussed these aspects before, but I appreciate your indulgence on this as I look to understand.

    1. SJC, correct on all items. Three lunar aspects: Phase, Declination, and Distance all have reoccuring effects each month. Phase:
      FM sell at open
      FM plus one to four avoid long
      FM plus four to NM plus four long
      NM plus four to FM open sell

      Distance: avoid apogee day before at close until apogee plus three trading days.
      avoid perigee day before at close until four trading days after. Load up 8 calendar days before perigee until close day before. Most net gains of year is 8 days into perigee.

      Declination: true real deal. Moon moves from N to S across equator and then S back to N. Weak N plus three days to S. Strong S to N plus three days. Days when moon crosses equator much volatility and usually to up side.

      Planets: lots of tradable aspects mostly with inner planets. Most useful are Mercury quads every two months which have weakness 5 trading days after. And Mercury superior conjunction which has weakness 5 trading days after.

      Btw, you have earlier helped me with some of your comments.

  16. I have to agree with Nicolas. The CB’s are doing an incredible job of supporting markets. Whether what they are doing is beneficial or having positive influence upon the economy is open to debate.

    There can be no doubt that CB’s have dramatically increased intervention since the Glencore led sell-off in Sept.
    I also believe that the ECB’s dovish stance this week was clearly driven by the situation faced by the dollar.
    The dollar was in very real danger of breaking below technical support that would of course led to an appreciating Euro and we can’t have that can we?!!

    Just look at the USD daily chart to see what I mean.

    On that point, just look back at almost ALL policy moves by the CB’s and you will see that they inherently coincide with a break down in technicals of some sort.

    In regard to PM’s we are constantly getting fed mistruths and misinformation from MSM that dmand is declining when in fact it is exploding.
    Demand for silver particularly has hit extremes. Record demand from India and massive declines in production and yet price declines?

    How badly will that end?……incredibly badly if you are short.

    I have never been more bullish than I am now on silver. Base metals are getting clobbered and production is falling off a cliff. Base metals make up approx 70% of Ag annual supply. I believe the downside from here is minimal but the upside is massive and we may eventually see prices as high $400.

    As for AMZN. Good to see that they finally have a positive PE even if it is near 900!
    Jeff Bezos arrogantly stated earlier this year “I can turn on the earnings spigot whenever I want”.
    Well start turning like crazy man and I hope you have a big enough flow to fill the huge discrepency between earnings and valuation at some point in the reasonable future. It’s been 2 decades nearly already!

    Finally, Steve St. Angelo is the most knowledeagable and thorough researcher I know of when it comes to global silver supply and demand issue.

    http://www.silverdoctors.com/complete-collapse-of-the-western-financial-system-shown-in-one-silver-chart/#more-59299

    1. BTW those that scoff at my $400 Ag price. That may be conservative. At current levels of consumption in-ground reserves will be almost gone by 2030 if they don’t find more reserves.
      As that time approaches the natural reaction will be that more and more people will hoard Ag, thus compounding and accelerating the issue.

      I do believe that at some point governments will be forced to act to ban silver hoarding. I will be well and truly sold out before then.

    2. You’re pretty much the only one on this board I consistently agree with, Allan. I make my living buying and selling nanocap gold and silver exploration stocks and I can tell you that, behind the scenes, everything is moving in the right direction where gold and silver are concerned. M&A activity in the junior mining sector has absolutely exploded this year and I’m having a very good year, even though the prices of the metals themselves are stagnant. Quality deposits have simply gotten too cheap and any mining company that’s turning a profit is in with both hands buying them up.

      The base being formed in the metals prices and the mining and exploration stocks is the most powerful I’ve ever seen, and I’ve been doing this a long time. When the dam finally bursts, almost no one alive will believe what happens to gold and silver prices and especially to the prices of carefully-chosen junior mining and exploration stocks.

      As for the stock market, the notable VIX divergence seen today is a major warning sign, a shot across the bulls’ bow. Most won’t even notice it. Too bad for them.

        1. DJ, thanks for the response.
          Being that I am Aussie I pretty much cut my teeth on mining stocks and yes you ate 100% correct about the huge moves coming and huge base that is forming.

          I have never seen the resource sector so despised, so discredited and so much contempt toward gold and silver stocks and I can’t imagine there was ever a time before I began investing that is worse than now.

          I have made many connections within the mining industry in Australia over the years and they too say that this has been the worst ever period not just in living memory but ever.

          So, stick to your guns, as I am certain you will and ignore the naysayers and continue to buy well placed junior Au and Ag producers that can see it through because I state without hesitation that a well placed trade of $10k will be worth over $1 m within a few years.

          I can think of at least three cases on the ASX where a investment made back in November last year is now a 10 bagger and they haven’t even begun. One of those at that time had a market cap of around $25 m, had over $30 m in the bank, a functioning plant and equipment that alone was worth over $50 m at replacement and operating at a profit in an established gold producing lease in WA with ZERO debt!

          ONCE IN A LIFETIME OPPORTUNITY RIGHT THERE!

          Cheers

        2. You can have your AAPL’s, your GOOGL’s amd your AMZN’s with a PE of 900 and margins that are squeezed beyond healthy. I’m putting my money into the most undervalued sector in history.
          Just see what happens to AMZN when their volumes decline, because their business model is based purely upon turnover. They will never ever live up to the current valuation……EVER!

  17. Evening all.
    Ok, it’s actually very early Saturday morning.
    5% in the red and 18 holes of golf in the rain in sunny Morocco. 🙂
    I don’t think the bull has much further to run, as John points out, it’s a narrow rally. Extreme moves also in yields today, some panic selling perhaps.
    And the dollar is rampant, killing any hope for global recovery stone dead.
    Bed time now, have a good weekend folks.
    Best wishes to Nic, I’m sure our many central bank readers appreciate his hearty congratulations.

  18. PALS SPX update:
    Phase: Strong monday into tuesday open, weak balance of week
    Distance: very weak all week post perigee
    Declination: weak Monday to Wednesday, Strong Th Fri
    Planets: neutral
    Seasonals: neutral Monday Tues, very strong Wed to Fri.

    Summary: taking long stance all week, but won’t go long until weakness shows up or Tuesday’s close which ever first.

    1. Hi Valley, many thanks for all your continous explanations and guidance with your PALS System. I have two questions in regards to that.

      1. Are you weighting all factors equally or is a factor more important in influencing the markets ?

      2. Where can I best get data on Apo/ Perigee, declinations etc.

      Many thanks and all a nice weekend
      Jaze

      1. All factors could be said to be 60 percent to 75 percent accurate on their own. However, they are off set so phase, declination, and distance move into and out of sync. When two or more are positive or when all three are negative gives you different read. Each one can be traded by itself to give some advantage but when all three are used it is quite useful. In terms of 60 percent would be distance and declination, 75 percent for phase.

        http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html for apo/per

        http://www.astropro.com/features/tables/cen20ce/mo-dcl-1999.html for declination

      2. Each factor can be assumed to be equally important altho’ phase is slightly more so. Fourmilab has the apo/per data. Richard Nolle’s astropro has the declination cycle data.

      3. Also you can do quite well buying day before each weekly lowest tide NYC and selling day before each weekly highest tide NYC. Tidal data various sources. Tides are a result of tidal forces that distance, phase, and declination create.

        1. Valley, this is truly VERY GOOD info. Many thanks for such detailed and clear explanations.

          I’m starting to use my EW methodology and mixing it in with the PALS system.

          As an example on 21st Oct we had the late evening reversal following a 9 wave Ending Diagonal (EW term). I had been short as the 9th wave finished and was all cock-a-hoop when the reversal happened.

          Normally I would have added once the bounce from the reversal looked liked ending….but then I remembered that your PALS system was predicting bullish for the end of the week. So I just stood my ground and had a ‘stop out’ at break even.

          Welll!!! THAT turned out to be VERY VERY good for me. Whilst I missed out on the Thursday Friday ramp I also missed out on the pain from being short.

          I’m going to increasingly use that combo of EW wave counting and PALS in my trading.

          Many thanks again.

  19. I still see an opportunity to probe short this fat little piglet. This is not a matter of being right or wrong, it is a matter of taking a trade that has a good shot at paying off big with a small risk. Great risk reward ratio. Monday in the 2080’s SPX should be the time and price to probe at a low risk high reward opportunity. Tight stop can be used so risk is low. This up leg from Aug. lows still looks like an abc death pattern. If I am wrong, it won’t cost me much to find out. ( By the way, I don’t think John is wrong or right. He is merely providing us with technical info and helping to explain or interpret what each indicator suggest. If this goofy market goes up against the indicators, that doesn’t mean he is wrong, it just means the market is manipulated enough to overcome technicals that would usually work.)
    We have a glancing flare on Sat., but its potential to turn the markets is in question because an X rating is required for it to be effective and I can’t find the rating on this flare.

    But that aside, The pattern looks to have only ONE more 5 legger up and it should be tiny.

    The market is still following the pattern as outlined, but, the legs are much bigger than they should have been. That may be due to the Dragi QE stuff. But this news has not changed the pattern. It has just made each of the legs in the pattern much larger than they normally would be. Short squeeze.

    here is the wave count as I have it. Still in wave 5. Actually v:V:5. w1 = 2055.07 ( 37.79 pts.), w2=2041.78, w3 =2077.70 (35 points~ Ahhh, W3 is smaller than wave 1 so wave 5 should be very small. It has to be the smallest leg of the 5 mentioned. This piece of info allows for a very low risk trade.) The wave 4 appears ( I say appears) to be complete at 2064 for a Fib. 13 point drop. There is always a chance the w4 could go complex but I doubt it will this close to the end of this giant leg. Now lets look at this last tiny 5. It appears to have completed the 1,2,3,4, and just has one more minuscule leg up to go. This last leg measures out to a projection “near” 2086 SPX plus or minus. Now, if the flare is intense enough on Sat, it may start the ES tripping lower on Sunday night. If that happens, that last little tiny 5th leg up may turn out to be a failure, meaning, there is a chance we saw the high on Fri. But if the cme flare is less than X rating, then the full moon may still be in charge and we may see one final pop on Monday that probably won’t exceed the 2086 flip project by much, if any at all.

    If I have the pattern right, there is only one leg left, and by the rules of Elliott, it must be smaller than the wave 3. Probably a lot smaller.

    I will be watching closely on Sunday night for weakness. If I see it, I am probing again. ( this time with the FM at my back. If there is no weakness Sunday, then I will watch for the 2080’s on Monday before probing short. If it does something unexpected on Monday, like blow through the 2086 area without so much as a stumble, then I stop out of my probe and re-evaluate. My loss on the probe should be very small if that were to happen.

    I would expect this last small 5 to stay near 14 points or less. It can go higher but it isn’t likely to if I am reading this correctly. 2072.74 wave 4 + 14 = our 2086.69 expectation, plus or minus.

    Conclusion, I am probing short in the 2080’s, or I am chasing the SP down on Sunday night, which ever happens first.
    The tools used are #1, a maturing pattern and #2, astrology. And I am combining them with the negative indicators John brought to the table. Potential gain on this trade is very large compared to the minuscule risk. These are the trades we should seek.

    Good luck to all of us.

    1. Great minds think alike John. 🙂
      (Have a quick recce of the back end of comments from your previous post).
      Good luck next few weeks, to us bears of course.

  20. For RedDog,
    I mnetioned Azure Minerals ASX: AZS the other day. I very rarely give recos but mate you need to take a very hard look at AZS.
    They have stumbled onto something very big in Mexico. I am hearing that Tony Rovira the MD is truly gobsmacked with the results they are returning from both initial soil samples and the RC holes to date.

    Given the sparsity of the RC holes and the results obtained ie, grades, you can be almost 100% certain that diamond core in-filling will not disappoint and you can be certain that if Tony Rovira is gobsmacked, a man that found one of the biggest ever nickel deposits ever snd took a compnay valued at pennies to over $3.1b, they have something worth looking at.

  21. Valley,
    Thanks for the education on PALS. You’ve brought it a long way. I certainly understand the focus on the inner planets, particularly Mercury, but have you ever incorporporated a Jupiter-Saturn relationship? I am currently looking at that relationship, and it may have a role to play in your PALS method – I will let you know.

    1. Thanks, SJC. I would look at S and J as independent agents especially in regards to following:
      -S crosses galactic center in Sag has corresponded to last 3 major market manias every 29 years: mid 80s, late mid 50s, late 20s. J crosses GC every 12 years with interesting results.

      Planetstoday.com has time based planetary positions which makes finding correlations easier.

      PALS is weekly/daily predictor so S and J may not be as useful due to overwhelming effect of three lunar aspects on tides and markets, and the seasonal predictive values. Will add any findings that you discover to the PALS system as trade parameters if they have effects on time periods as short as daily or weekly. Thanks again.

  22. Louis Navellier, one of the briter lights in US stock newsletter writers said yesterday on goldseekradio.com that US markets most likely will retest the lows of 1831 before long, tho’ he is bullish from late November into next years US election cycle.

  23. Did you ever spend a long time staring at something, trying to figure out what you were looking at, and then all of a sudden, it comes into focus and becomes clear, sort of like an epiphany? Will follow up in a few days with some interesting analysis.

  24. Have you ever stared at something for a long time, trying to see what’s in front of you. Then, all of a sudden, there’s an epiphany and it snaps into focus. Will follow up shortly.

  25. Both Crude and Copper have set back on their 50 day sma’s. This against the recent rally in stocks. If you take a look at Copper on weeklies, going back several years, then Copper has accelerated its decline and “might” have found a bottom. That “bottom” may only be because high cost producers are shuttering their mines. That doesn’t mean that a world wide economic recovery is underway. As it stands, Dr. Copper is pointing towards the rally being only a Bear market rally that will reverse and break to new lows.

  26. New thought for Deltoids: S+P 500, a high six point Long Term rotation Inbetween point brought in a high Super Long Term point 6 in May followed by a Long Term Inversion Window “crash” to a low six point Long Term rotation point 2 (early) that was brought in by an Intermediate Inbetween point and a late low eighteen point Long Term rotation point 5. The rally up from there is to a high eighteen point Long Term rotation point 6 that is bringing in an early high six point Long Term rotation point 3. If that is the correct rotation(s) then stocks will be going down, big time, to an expected late low six point Long Term rotation point 4 and, onwards, to a (late) low Super Long Term rotation point 7 (which isn’t due until 2017).

  27. John, it would appear comments are appearing in a strange order at the moment. There are a few from 23rd stuck at the bottom of the comments, new ones are appearing further up.
    I think WordPress has issues based on my experiences elsewhere.

  28. https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=2iV0

    Remarkable John… as always… thank you… Pring keeps an eye on the housing market and the processional effects that echo out to the peripheral from the core activity in the economy. We have for that last 6 years been relying not so much on it’s growth and expansion but more so on it not collapsing. It will be interesting to see how this sector responds moving forward. It does appear to be normalizing which could only mean support for the market. But is it? And at this point can the spotty real estate market normalize and we still have a sell-off/deeper correction/bear?

    I appreciate you work AND your delivery and the many posts that follow. Good work all around.

    HVA

  29. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/p/european-bond-yields.html

    Another metric worth considering is the European bond yields… Calculated risk published a nice table to access and compare them. Yields have settled for the most part… HY in European credit markets seems much less skittish than US, likely due to a lack of energy exposure. The new round of easing by the ECB suggests support but not enough to revisit the lows achieved in April (Germany). How this all bleeds into the currency market appears crucial in terms of liquidity. That to my way of seeing things is the Achilles heel. Speaking of currency much debate here has revolved around precious metals. Gold in particular doesn’t look very poised to break out in Dollar terms… or at least has much to prove still. In terms of EU gold appears to be holding above the Dec 2013 low. This price movement looks very telling and would therefor suggest a end of the $Gold bear.

  30. NG’s gap down opening and new multi-year lows, with every intra-day attempt to rally it failing, points towards Commercial Capitulation and that means that US industry is declining in a major way. Should Copper start selling off, endlessly, like NG, then stocks will start playing “catch up” as they, too, start “gapping and going” to the downside in an Elliot major 3rd wave decline.

    All told, stocks may be a “house of cards” that is about to collapse.

    1. OMG, another intra-day attempt to rally Natural Gas has failed as it breaks to new multi-year lows. If this keeps up then NG will soon take out its 2012 lows as American Industry falls flat on its face. Soon, the industrial metal Silver will fall, far and hard, from its failure to rally above its 200 day ma and pull Gold along with it.

    2. My natural gas longs are suffering. Only entered with the smallest position possible recently so it will hardly dent my account even if it does to zero but still it was a bad move.

      1. I held my nose and went in deeper on Nat Gas Today, I have large holdings and large losses at this time. If you do not buy on the way down, how can you sell on the way up. I maintain the weather will be bad this winter, but later part of Winter. Power companies will increase demand. Duke Energy anounced today they bought Piedmont Nat Gas. Duke is gearing up to use alot of Nat Gas. Trying to catch a falling knife is never fun, but it can reward.

  31. Fair does, if it’s making you money nicely done.

    I would tend to agree with JH’s latest post in that we do
    not know if we remain in a bull market.

    My own best guess is that markets would need to reverse
    this week if we are in an early stage bear market.

    1. I saw that as a possibility when it happened. And so far this morning ( Monday morning) the spx is working a 5 down ( in slow motion, but it is there).
      SPX 20 72.74 SPX resistance was honored this A.M. This is the first hint that a top may have been made on Fri. We still need to see more, but this is off to a good start for the bears who probed on Fri. with 1/2 their position.

      1. Thx GN your ‘tentative’ confirmation is actually MORE helpful than if you had come out and just said YES!! We are done!! 🙂

      2. Haha, slooow motion is right. I’ve seen glaciers move faster than this ‘decline’.

        Must be the PPT holding things up…unnecessarily. They really don’t get the BIGGER world picture. Hope they don’t drown the US in a whirlpool of debt that it can’t handle.

        the president won’t be pleased. NOTE the lower caps!!

        1. poor mr O. All this world turmoil must be putting him OFF his golf handicap.

          Perhaps he should get the PPT into the Oval office and give them a stern talking to.

          I’d second that.

      1. The sell off was slow motion because it is still correcting. There is a good chance it is entering the final wave 5 now. This current rally could pop to 2080’s or it could fail without going above Fri’s high. These final 5’s can be tricky. We need to watch it closely. Fed. announcement tomorrow could play a role in how this all ends.
        I probed at the very top of the wave 3 and that didn’t work so well, so now I will be probing short for the second time. Today or tomorrow. Tomorrow is Fib. 21 off the b:B low, and we have a super moon that peaked this morning in most of the US.
        Everything is set for a second short probe except the Fed. can be a wildcard of sort. Their blah-blah- blah stuff can cause a failure or shoot this last 5 legger up to its 2090’s potential.

        “”” Hope they don’t drown the US in a whirlpool of debt that it can’t handle.”””

        Good observation. But that has already been done by Bush, Clinton, and Obama. They are doubling our national debt about every 6 years. It is planned. Cloward & Francis Pivons strategy teaches this as a way to dismantle a country from within. It happened to Rome. Fiat money, unplayable debt. It is just a matter of time before the US falls into their grips. Obama’s Columbia University school buddy tells us about Obama in this video. Obama says he won’t raise the national debt a single dime. But he has managed to raise it more than any other president. Image that.
        If anyone has any doubts watch the short videos below. Obama is one of a kind. But the scary part is that nobody seems to care as long as they get their free Obama phones and other Obama freebie’s.

        http://personalliberty.com/proof-suicide-bomber-white-house/

    2. i’m an elliot follower/believer but not technically gifted so here are a few chartists I follow on tradingview who have a solid track record

      https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX500/RECXorzB-It-s-the-final-count-down/

      https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPY/lCsvP9j3-It-s-Time-To-Predict-the-Stock-Market-Crash/
      Here are the 2nd ew’ers comments

      MACD crossed to the downside back in December of 2014, and has been in a downtrend ever since (additionally, the MACD height reached a double top from the year 2000; the year of the dot-com bubble burst and stock market crash). However, price has not matched this movement, and has instead remained flat or even rose — to me, this divergence indicates a change in trend is about to occur in the SPY-0.25% , and I see the MACD signal line creating a kink and decreasing to the zero line at the very least.

      Around August of 2015, the SPY-0.25% lost its 8 month and 20 month Moving Average supports that it had held on to for the entire leg up. Vertices were placed on their respective parabolas, indicating the shift in trend from Bullish SPY-0.25% to Bearish SPY-0.25% (according to my vertex hypothesis, before major trend changes, vertices on parabolas occur, beginning with the 8 and 20, and then price is reduced as the MA’s are pulled down — in contrast to earlier periods of time in which the MA’s rebalanced higher, one can clearly see the slope of the lines vary greatly from the past, showing clear parallels from the stock market crashes of 2000 and 2008). This information can be considered the end of the bull market for the SPY-0.25% . It had only lost the 8 month MA temporarily around October of 2014, but found support at the 20 month MA, before the uptrend resumed. That said, after bouncing off the Sling Shot System’s upper Slow MA boundary, it seems — to me, in my own personal opinion — that the SPY-0.25% is making Market Maker stops runs across its monthly MA’s as a re-test before further significant downside.

      The highs in the SPY-0.25% are already in, and the fact that the media keeps pumping bullish SPY-0.25% articles leads me to believe that we’re close to a market meltdown as stops are triggered, trigger more stops, etc., for prices below $170 by end of year. Furthermore, with all-time complacency in the market, the financial environment is set up to catch everyone with their pants down as the SPY-0.25% sheds >25% in the coming months. Even the 50 month MA is down at $170, with the 200 MA down at $132.67 — effectively, the 200 will be a magnet for the SPY’s collapse. We could see, for example, prices decline over 25% by the end of November and December 2015. Prepare for October’s monthly candlestick formation to end closer to an inverse hammer, giving the momentum required for next month’s financial market collapse, that will have continuity into December.

      Right now, we’re witnessing many ‘good’ Earnings’ Reports that are propping the markets up from the (in my opinion, smart money liquidation) flash crash down to $180 during August of 2015. Indeed, everyone is so bullish despite the fact that the subtle hints exist — the SPY-0.25% making lower highs (testing its broken down trend line at $208 and failing), the SPY-0.25% having been triggered setting off a massive panic mode in the market that showed big money liquidating large volume , and that this most recent run from $190 to $208 is off of ANEMIC volume –, because, for example, tech companies like Google1.54% are beating purposely lowered expectations, etc. The attitude in the market is that the sky is the limit, and this earnings season solidifies the bull run. Most of us know, however, that the market is very contrarian sometimes when it comes to news — people who watch earnings know, that, for example, a stock can crash on a great earnings report, just like it can gap up on terrible earnings, due to the “forward thinking” nature of the market. In a similar way, perhaps the lofty valuations of the market is finally being realized in this apex season. The culling of profit, and the profit release of billions, will occur, and in my opinion, the day is coming far sooner than most realize.

      As a result, I have personally purchased several hundred Spy-0.25% Put options with a strike price of $175, due for expiry in December. We all know the old aphorism that stocks can be an “elevator down”. I’m betting it’s going to look just like that, be

  32. Hi all. It’s very quiet here. I hope you shorts didn’t go bankrupt. Ok, i just increased my exposure to IBB, driving down my average price. I view the recent decline as a normal correction after a strong uptrend. Nothing to worry about.
    best regards

    1. You should compare the R2k to the NASDAQ and seriously consider taking profits and going to Cash. I have gone to Cash by going long US treasuries.

    2. Here’s wishing YOU don’t got bankrupt nicolas although not with much conviction, given your arrogant posts…again.

      Please, please do just GO AWAY and STAY AWAY on your TRIPS. thx ever so much.

      1. If Nicolas is truly a troll, it’s best to not feed him. Trolls come here to get a reaction. The one thing they can’t stand is being ignored. Silence is golden. 😉

  33. In God we trust, John. This is the moment of Truth. If the current scenario is wrong I don´t know any references to think about.

    Maybe the plunge w´start from 3rd nov´15 to 9th nov´15.

    These´re the confidential dates I manage.

    Regards

    @apanalis

  34. Seriously, nobody really talks or thinks like that. “driving down my average price”. I think Nicholas is just pulling our leg.

    but on the subject of IBB, i still think parabolics tend to correct all the way back to the breakout and then some.

    i still figure the bottom might be 80 or 85% from the top

  35. Much as I hate to say it,,,since the 23rd Oct high,(DJIA of course) on the 5 minute chart, I can see a ‘triangle’ brewing which will break to the UP side for the LAST time (at least for this wave).

    Anyone else see that?

    1. I understand if MOST HERE ignore my comment. After all ALL my triangle calls have come to….nothing!!

      The difference this time is that it is AGAINST my ‘trade’ and therefore VERY LIKELY to happen.

    2. I am watching SPX, it looks like it is advancing in b:4 or a failure dia. triangle. 2055 SPX is support for now. As long as this support holds there is a chance the ES can make a flip projection in wave 5 up to 2091ish ES. SPX shows a possible flip projection to 2093 SPX. If SPX is currently building a dia. triangle, then it will fail to make it to these projections. I calculate projections, but the pattern has the final say so.
      Pattern says a little “C” down then one more 5 up( to maybe 90ish level), OR, this is the final 5 up in the form of a 5th wave dia. triangle failure.
      When 2055 spx comes out, that will be our first indication of structural weakness.
      Right now, the gap on Fri. looks like it could be an exhaustion gap. If that is the case, a top is near. If we have a big down leg ahead of us, we may also see a breakaway gap lower to start it off.

        1. The sideways action today fits well as a shallow wave 4 or a very weak 5th wave dia. tri. As a general rule, the more shallow the wave 4, the closer it is too a top.
          So far this pull back in spx is only 13 points. That is shallow. When we get a 6 point wave 4, we may only be a few hours or minutes from a top.
          If we get another impulse up tomorrow ( and I sure hope we do), watch how shallow the wave 4 pull back is. Our last wave 4 was 22 points. The one we are in is about 13 points so far. We “should” get one more 5 legger up tomorrow and that wave 4 should be 5 to 8 points. When you see that, slap on the putties on the very next high. You should get a great trade location.

        2. S&P seems to have finished its correction. Moving higher in it’s 5th wave. The pattern says it needs this one more Wave 5 push before being complete. I think it has started. Now we see how strong it will be. I have my finger on the Putty trigger all day but discipline says to wait until I can count one more 5 up.
          The correction from 2080ish SPX to 2059ish SPX was Fib. 21 and a bit deeper than I expected. It is like pulling a rubber band back. The farther it can be pulled back, the farther the next leg up can be launched. I am flat but hope to be short with my probe tomorrow. A 5th wave is usually a normal event, but, it can be tricky at times. I am betting this is one of those times. When we face an obvious pattern it seems everything becomes tricky.
          If we flip the 21 points over the last high it takes us to 2101 SPX. That would be a super extended wave 5 if that were to happen. But I like to keep those projections in mind so I don’t start buying putties way to early.
          I have a feeling tomorrow will be an eventful day. And by the end of this week, the question of this being a bull leg or a bear leg will be answered.

  36. Jh, I recall you mentioned rydex bull bear ratio was inline with past peaks. Where do we stand now, given you think this is second chance? Thanks.

  37. So is this JH’s “second chance rally or the lift off in a new bull move? Maybe a little of both. I can see the Dow (and maybe the SPX) going to marginal new all time highs in the next few weeks, but without the Dow transports, the Dow utilities, the NYA, the RUT, the Wilshire 5000 or the A/D line confirming. Might be a little lonely up there. A few people have mentioned a diagonal triangle developing in some of the broader indexes, as a failed 5th wave (no new highs, except in the Dow). I can see it too and it would be the perfect end to the bull market since 2009. If so, I’m guessing we are at the top of the 3rd Elliott wave of the triangle, about to see a sharp overlapping sell-off in a wave 4, then one final rally on weaker momentum (early to mid November?).

    1. I don’t think it is a giant dia. triangle. The dia. tri was completed on 7-21. That was either a wave v: 3 high or a wave v: 5 high. ( leaning toward v:5). The massive sell off that took the spx to approx. 1867ish low in Aug. was the trust that followed the completed dia. tri.
      1867 is either a wave 4 or it is an “A” wave. It actually fits better as an A wave. If we look at what followed, it has to be 1,2,3 up or an a,b,c, B wave up. When we look at the structure of the waves we see that the initial rally off the Aug. low looks more like a goofy “A” than a wave 1. Next we see a flatish and drawn out a,b,c that better resembles a “B” wave instead of a wave 2. I have seen a few wave 2’s that lasted 4 times longer than the wave 1, but they are extremely rare. Unless this is one of those extremely rare events, it must be a “B” wave making the entire rally an a,b,c up….death pattern.
      and I think we can stick a fork in this bullish run, it’s about done. Lets just hope we get a rally tomorrow so we can all board the bear train.

      1. I agree that a large diagonal triangle ended on 7-21. And it would be unusual for that peak to be followed by another diagonal triangle, but not technically impossible according to Elliott wave rules – if the peak on 7-21 was a wave 3 peak and the current rally is a wave 5 (a failed wave 5 for the broader indexes). I’ve been trading for 40 years and never seen such a scenario, but we are in an unusual environment. The other viable alternative is a simple A-B-C wave 2 retrace rally, but it would have to end very soon, as we are at the limits of Fibonacci allowable retrace and trend line resistance. I’m already 50% short as of Friday (Jan. puts) and will trigger the other 50% if the Dow goes to a new marginal high. By the way, I’m not suggesting the Dow is forming a potential diagonal triangle – only the broader indexes (NYA, RUT, W5000). Either way, we won’t have long to wait.

        1. From the 1867 low it is possible another dia. tri. could be forming but the pattern does not support it. Dia. tri. has a gyrating character. This one in the SP is a 3 up, 3 down that is way long drawn out, and now a 5 up. 3-3-5. The best fit is an a,b,c rally to complete a B wave. I am a super bear at this point and would prefer to see a dia. tri. 5th wave here, but it just doesn’t have the ingredience.
          The long drawn out leg to 1872ish low fits best as a “B” wave. Flatish b:B that is. The bulls may call it a wave 2, but the fact is, a wave 2 rarely last 5 X longer than the wave 1. ( most are shorter in time than the wave 1. Anything is possible but a wave 2 of that magnitude would have to be a Kodak moment. A “B” wave acts like that religiously.
          The big 4 on this chart below should be lowered but most everything else is pretty good. Even tho it is labeled off a bit, the author still came to the correct conclusion. But my bias says the SP will fall short of the projected target. I have 2091 ES and 2095SPX as the projected target, but I think too much buying was spent earlier in this extended wave 5 for it to achieve the targets. Also, time is running out. Today is the 20th day off the last big low as I counted it. This leg should end on day 21 plus or minus a day. We also have the FM upon us. I would be a little surprised to see the sp fulfill the numbers it projects.
          I think you will be very pleased with how your puts behave in the coming weeks.
          I need to see one more 5 up before I can get aggressive with puts. I doubt it will be a big leg however. I am too sensitive to buy puts early. Can’t take the heat. Waiting for the exact top has cost me plenty of trades however, the last leg dies in a failure and the market leaves the station without me. Having the confidence to hold a position while it dwindles in value can be an admirable quality in trading. I had it years ago but have become sensitive in my old age. Good luck to all of us.

  38. FWIW, I bought some puts yesterday as I am already short and 1.5% and 0.6% under water on SPY and SPX respectively. Short GDX in profit as well, but will close that today as the end of the triangle is nigh and no clues as to where it could go. Longer term I am bulllish GDX as you know.

    GLA

    J

  39. I have taken profits on my long US Treasuries. I am not totally convinced that the DOW won’t make a new ATH before the major sell-off commences. The FOMC event this week could send treasuries lower and the DOW higher on FED-speak and “hope”.

    World Sugar futures are in “backwardation” while there is an enormous amount of sugar held in warehouses around the world that needs to be reduced before any serious rally can be sustained. I think that I will short Sugar as I stand aside from the wild effects that this week’s FOMC event might cause in stocks and treasuries.

    1. Delta is “caught up” between the “push/pull” effects of Father Sun and Mother Moon. Mother Moon will have her say and that “say” is for higher stock prices due to the El Nino crashing all energy prices and not just Gasoline prices for the USA Winter. That means both more money in consumer’s hands from lower gasoline prices in addition to much more money in their pockets due to very light winter heating costs. I now suspect that Delta’s S+P 500 six point Long Term rotation did make an Inbetween point as a high in May but that it did not bring in Super Long Term point 6 because it’s Long Term point 3 is going to be early as it “averages in” with Super Long Term point 6 for a new ATH.

  40. Can someone possibly post the date when the DJIA and S&P topped during what looks like the 3rd week in May of this year? Probably on the same day; although the Nasdaq topped on what looks like June 20th?

    Thank you for your consideration and any help you can provide.

    (Looking for any astro similarities between 1835, 1929, and 2015.)

    1. Eclectic,
      I understand why you focus on 1835, that was the panic year. However, Please consider expanding your time of consideration to also include 1843 as a related bicritial date associated with 1835. The economic pressure continued until then, and wasn’t relieved until that year passed. So there may have been several astro weights on the economy. Some may have affected other countries (England) initially, and then another that impacted the States. Interestingly, 86 years (3.14×1,000/365.25) from now is 1929, less 86 is 1843, less 86 is 1757 which was the beginning of significant resentment by the colonies for the crushing British debt and taxation to pay for the French and Indian Wars. I believe that one nodal return later was the boston tea party, the beginning of revolution.

    2. eclectic, my charting system says it was the 18th for the DJIA. However my charting system includes out of hours trading, so be aware of that.

    1. the pattern suggest one more impulse leg up in needed to finish this bullish leg. How high it goes will probably be seen tomorrow. It may wait for old yeller to announce before making its final move. They make it very difficult to get aboard an obvious trade near the extreme so expect a bullish spike to shake off the bears before it reverses.
      I hope to be buying puts in that scary spike.

        1. yes, some times they make a huge spread between bid and ask, so they can’t be bought or sold. I may have to sell minis.

    1. Sorry Gary, just saw your one liner. The answer :

      Naaah!!! They are just some stupid leading indicator. The CBs don’t look at any ‘negative’ indicators any more. It upsets their delicate constitution.

  41. PALS til Friday on SPX:
    Seasonals: last three days of October rarely lower
    Phase: very negative
    Distance: very negative
    Declination: negative til Friday
    Planets: neutral
    Fed: meeting announcement Wed, expect outsized reaction either way, usually to up side.

    Based upon the triple negative lunars, set against excellent seasonals and Fed effect next few days are most likely choppy higher, unlikely to gap way higher. If after Fed announcement market stalls and Thursday has no follow thru, excellent short term shorting opportunity.

  42. Hi John and folks, I’m still holding some inverse ETF on biotech (LABD). My average price is 53.7 @ 980 shares. As the biotech index seems to keep on rising, do you think I should cut loss for now?

    Or should I wait till it drops again?

  43. Hi John and folks,
    I’m currently holding 980 shares of LABD (biotech inverse ETF) at 53.7. As the biotech index seems to continue to rise, do you think I should cut loss?

    Or should I wait till it drops again to sell them?

    1. hyc, what I’m about to say needs to be read in the spirit of a ‘public service’ statement:

      Somewhere on this site John H CLEARLY states ‘never investment advice’. THAT is the underlying thread by which this blog works. So your question cannot be answered since it would clearly be ‘investment advice’ if answered as you ask it.

      However here are some questions that you could ask yourself which if you answer honestly may lead you to the answer that you desire:

      1. Why did you take this particular trade?

      2. What ‘risk/reward’ were you expecting to suffer/obtain which you were comfortable with?

      3. What percentage of your total investment pot does this trade represent?

      4. How much sleep are you losing each night by having this trade open?

      There probably are a dozen more that I could drum up. However what I’m really trying to do here is get you to take responsibility for your own trades…..AND to do that you have to ask yourself a number of questions like the ones above and more and if you are happy with each / all / the average of those answers ONLY THEN should you take the trade.

      In short the answer to your question lies with you.

      However on the other hand if you were asking when/where might the Biotechs reverse then I’m sure a number of very savvy posters here would be happy to answer your question based on subjective probabilities i.e. no absolute guarantees..

      Wishing you all well with this trade and future ones.

      1. purvez, thanks for taking the time to give me a reply.
        I agree with you that the trade I made is totally my responsibility, and I should’ve think about the questions you mentioned more deeply before I make the decision.

        As for now, I can only hope for the best and wish the correction is not over yet.

  44. Waiting for November now to see if the much famed Bo Polny forecast of a crash comes true or whether yet another crash forecaster has egg on his face after such great recent predictions.

    1. Gone short FTSE 100. Target 6260 longer term but most likely will close out well before that to avoid being caught out by the next central bank led market manipulation.

      1. Closed short as the oil spoke has brought out the Bulls again. Really starting to look bad for the Bears. I’ve all but given up for 2015. Would prefer a mega Santa rally to blast us to new highs to give me a second chance to catch the market top! Gone with a small long on Dow in case we do rally up. Will switch to bigger shorts if things start turning down.

        1. It’s funny how we all view things differently.
          I think things have never looked worse for the bulls, so I just increased my short exposure by 50% with some fresh funds, all on the Ftse (via 3x short etf).

          I see the FTSE has retraced (only) 50% of its decline from peak to the August low, whilst ES futures have just today squeaked above their 78.2% fib level for the retracement. That’s the level where bulls think they’ve already won the war.
          Poor bulls.
          I’m expecting some seriously large panic-driven selling in the next few weeks, but will close out everything if we go more than 2% higher from here.

          Good luck to the bears.

        2. Central banks can keep the bull run going for another 10 years if they wanted. Just have to keep increasing the scale of QE every year. Would likely lead to eventual inflation over 100% but its evident they don’t care about hyper inflation. Good luck with the shorts anyway. I reckon there will be one more market dip in November or early December before the Santa rally. The oil rally should quickly reverse soon as its ridiculous to have such a reaction to a inventory draw considering the huge current surplus. $40 oil will hit before year end i predict. I have gone short on that.

        3. My 2 brain cells are a bit slow on the uptake. Is the market having a ‘hissy fit’ because the Fed DIDN’T raise the interest rate or because they are threatening to NEXT TIME?

          This is ALL SO CONFUSING.

          A 100+ point ‘fit’ in 5 mins on the DJIA is not something you can (should) ignore.

        4. Don’t want to look a gift horse in the mouth. I shorted right at the top. Lets hope it keeps selling off.

        5. purvez, the market is being swamped with sellers at these levels.
          I expect more volatility right here and now.
          I expect sellers to overwhelm buyers at these levels, driving prices down.
          (I don’t, as always, think any central bank meeting, statement, or policy change can/will change the direction in which the markets travel. Twas ever thus.).

          krish, there will be some hyperinflations, yes. But that will be when trading/investing gains in stocks will be nominal only, and in real terms only gold and its miners will be making real gains. But those times are at least 5 to 10 years away, first we have the end of the current secular bear to get through into the solar minimum, IMO.

      2. The pattern supported at least one more bull rally today. If it is going to top out it will probably happen on old yeller’s announcement today. A chance ( but smaller) it will top out tomorrow.

        1. Thanks, Golden Nugget. I appreciate your EW commentary. You have an understand of some of the subtleties and probabilities that I have missed, the length in time of a typical wave 2 versus a “b” wave being a prime example.

      1. Potential “island bottom” and we have already started into the next mini-Ice Age that only the El Nino is holding off. Winter could see radical changes from extreme cold to warmth due to the powerful forces opposed to each other of the El Nino and the trend into the next mini-Ice Age. A “sudden failure” of El Nino warmth can happen at any time. If it weren’t for the El Nino this winter would be colder than the prior two cold winters. After 2017 everyone on Earth will know that the trend is into a min-Ice Age.

      2. Thursday, NG could react to the NG weekly storage report the same that CL and HO did today. With any cold weather NG demand will go to record highs in a hurry due to falling Coal use for electric generation and ever increasing NG use.

        1. We mostly agree Richard, only one thing I would say is not clear is the new Mini Ice Age. Certianly agree in the possibility, but too difficult to claim based on data. I find the topice extremely interesting though. Watching closely.

  45. SJC: No argument from me about the historical context of your observations. I hate to use the word diversity; but the depth and breadth of knowledge on this site is truly remarkable. I am simply focusing on the year and day of these extreme peaks.

    Also, purvez; thank you for responding to my post.

  46. Well well….100+ point fit or not on the DJIA. the down wave remained a 3 waver. So we should expect another high above 17715. Looks like we are nearly there already.

    1. purvez, if you really believed in the ppt, why would you be using EW and making a living trading? Did the ppt prevent either of the past two bear markets? A self-answering question there!

      It does amaze me that so many folk here actually believe in this CB myth.
      Yet, we will see a bear market, unless one believes they have been permanently banished?

      It’s one or the other isn’t it? Permanently high shares markets, ever rising, or reality taking over?

      Apart from the financial ramifications of the bear getting going in earnest for me and my clients, I will be delighted that the myth finally gets laid to rest. Sanity will be restored.

      1. GM, whilst I don’t believe in the infallible power of the CBs, I equally DO believe in the temporary ability of the PPT to intervene.

        There is almost no other way of explaining a 130+ down draft within a 15 minute period to be reversed by a 220+ point to the up side almost immediately thereafter.

        The reason I survive such interventions, is because they are mercifully rare and because of my NEAR Paranoiac adherence to ‘stops’. Otherwise I would be dead in the water a very very long time ago.

        Hope the weather has improved in Agadir and that you are enjoying.

        1. This is today’s market in my view, vaguely schizo.
          I seem to recall similar moves back in 2007, but we crashed eventually.
          I think bull market peaks, especially second chance rally peaks, display this kind of behaviour, but I don’t ascribe it to some ppt action, just the battle between buyers and sellers.
          Back home now, nice break, bit of a tan, thanks.

        2. 2066ES should now become first support. We need to see this level taken out before there is any hope of the market falling. So far on this bull leg the SPX has not taken out any support levels.

          The first SPX support is 2072.75.

          If these levels come out with an impulse leg lower, then we have a shot at a cit.

    2. This is scary for the bears because of the strength. But today is Fib. 21 days off the 9/29 low, and when we look at the daily we can count a completed ( or nearly completed 5 up from 9/29 low). Also we have a FM that says a top will occur today or tomorrow with 80% certainty.
      The 2063.15 dip after yeller announcement was a “C” of a flatish W4. Now in what should be the last tiny wave 5. If it is tiny, as would be expected, it could have ended right at the close…2089.79.
      Hourly MacD shows a big bearish divergence starting at Oct. 6. When we look at the overall leg we can identify a breakaway gap near the 1872 low, another big gap in the iii:3 leg, and what appears to be an exhaustion gap near these highs. The iii:3 gap typically falls 1/2 way up to the wave 3 high and below the midpoint of the entire 5 leg move. Gaps appear to be in place as expected. Nothing we can do now except allow the forces to work, or not work if wrong… Be prepared to hold shorts if we get a potential breakaway gap down tomorrow, or be thinking about how much heat we want to take should it go higher for one more day. If the FM is to work, the top must be made by the 29th. Sometimes the FM doesn’t work until the second day after the actual event so we have to keep that in mind.

      I shorted near 2084spx ( irreg. b:4 high). I missed the top so under water almost immediately with my 15 puts. Hoping for a nice gap down tomorrow. FM says top may be tomorrow if not today.
      Now we wait and hope for a gap down tomorrow.

    3. today’s sell off action resembles another w4. If that is the case, it makes since to probe short at the top of the next little 5 legger up. I am holding a small short position from yesterday with my finger on the trigger to add more if and when the next 5 up is complete or the 2072.50ish support is taken out. FM says the high in SPX will be today if it works this time around. It works about 80% of the time.
      PPT is real. In the beginning they were told to prevent lock limit down panic type selling, but later they were given the authority to do what ever they needed to do to maintain confidence. Buying on old yeller’s announcement could be viewed as a step to maintain confidence. Big brother has his finger in everything.

  47. Aaah, are we fighting something a lot bigger than the market? I’m starting to feel that way.

    Any one got any thoughts on that?

    1. Hi Purvez. Yes, you are fighting central banks and it’s not a good idea to put it mildly. Honestly, and I hate to say it, but you should have listened to me. There’s so much money to be made on the long side.

  48. Hi all ! So, everything is going as expected. The markets are back to all time highs on excellent news from the FED. It’s nice to see gold down again, beautiful action. So, I think today’s action pretty much destroyed what remained of the bear case. Again, I do respect John a lot, but at this point he should just close his shorts and forget about the market for a while.
    regards

    1. It is great to see you back Nic.
      But only because you are a great indicator. It is sad you feel the need to bad mouth John every time though. Were this my blog, you would have been banned months ago. John is a class act, you are very lucky.
      I couldn’t be happier with my new shorts added today.

    2. Nicolas I’ve come to the conclusion you are actually a very bearish on markets. You currently are short and only write these posts when you start losing money as a means of making yourself feel better by making the rest of the bears on this thread feel bad for not buying. Without any proof from yourself to deny this I will laugh out loud whenever I see your bullish posts as I know you are losing money.

    1. So…..?
      Your usual opaque hedged statement Phil, in fact, even more so, a literally pointless comment.
      You never mention a trade idea, never post a firm view.
      I’m always interested in a view, rarely in airy-fairy equivocating nothingness.
      But, you may have known that already.

    1. Hi GM!
      And I just posted my G&S comment, and then i read your link….

      Different methodology, with same conclusions… Appreciate you posting the link…

      And nice adds today…
      Can’t help but feel we’re close here….but coulda said that yesterday too….
      Crossing fingers it all works out for us…

      Barry

  49. Ummm, yes, Nick…. The central banks have such “excellent news”, they’re pissing their pants at the thought of raising interest rates one fourth of one percent…..from almost ZERO….
    That said, i’m sure you’re already packing your bags…. Because I really think you’re about to go on another vacation……. Very, very soon…. 😉
    Surprised you can’t give us a heads up when you’re leaving though…
    We need a heads-up that we’re not going to be getting “your analysis”… 🙂
    There,that’s out of the way…

    For everyone else, some market thoughts tonight…

    I look at a LOT of charts, every night… Almost to a chart, i see the same thing over and over, and that’s a rising price for the last 3-4 weeks, and as of about 6-7 trading days ago, Money-Flow going down…. There are a few exceptions, MSFT, AMZN, and a few others like that, but it’s shocking the weakness that is underlying the stock market right now, by my eyes anyway…

    On the other hand, every…..and i mean every….inverse stock ETF I track is exactly the opposite… Price declining, and Money Flow going up for the last week +….

    In addition, tonight the SPX/HYG ratio hit a new high – the highest I’ve ever seen…
    Surpassing only the last high of Aug 17th…

    My stock trading system is still 100% short, from late May… It’s tried to go long a few times since, but not quite close enough to trip it long…

    I personally have never been more short than I am tonight, and I’ll leave it at that…

    Good luck to all…
    Barry

  50. Forgot to add:
    I am long a small-ish amount of PM stocks, as well as a comfortable amount of physical G & S, but i have seen enough turn-down in Money Flow in enough PM stocks that I have hedged the position with an equivalent amount of the DUST ETF….
    If we get a hard slide in the stock market, my charts are telling me that, initially anyway, PM stocks are going down with it….

    DUST is just for protection against my long PMs, but it’s there for now…

    GLTA…
    Barry

    1. The level of higher paid layoffs has got to be on of the most under reported topics in the news. Many layoffs anounced from HUGE companies, but have not occured yet. How do we expect these higher paid middle class jobs to support the housing, restaurants, retail? The clues may start to appear in this Christmas shopping season.

    2. One other point to make, as we sit near high M&A activity. What exactly happens when one company buys another??? Yup, more layoffs. We are just starting this cycle, because it takes about a year to start optimizing a merger and layoffs follow. So we are just getting started on this negative feedback.

    1. The sell off today looks more corrective than impulsive so far. I took 3/4 of my shorts off ( from yesterday) near the low at break even. Will put them back on if and when a support level is taken out. Or at the next 5 legger up. SPX has not taken out a minor support level since the bull leg started. It should be near the end but not showing it yet. Full Moon says top must be today if it is to work. It is an 80% tool.

      1. If we don’t get a top today, what’s your best guess for the next date for a likely top? Ditto for price: If not top today, how high will be beast go before it starts to fall over?

        1. The pattern right now is either a complex 4 here OR it is a wave 4 morphing into a die tri 5th wave. The FM says it is a wave4 morphing into a 5th wave die tri.
          For now, I am relying on the indicators to be right and provide a high today in the spx. If it goes higher tomorrow, that means about 1/2 the indicators I watch have been negated. Sometimes they pinpoint a top right to the exact day as is the case right now.
          If they fail to predict this top to the day, I usually take my position off and wait for the next signal. Because I am prepared to take the trade off, it becomes important to scale in very near the extreme so loss is very low when the probe is taken off.
          Without astrology at my back with a trade, I am left only with charts to navigate peaks and lows. So if stopped out of this one, I will have to watch the pattern for the next 5 up to probe again.
          This sell off has been about 7 points so far. It could sling shot up to 2097 SPX if it has enough strength. When 2047 came out, the next projects ranged from 2090ish to 2097ish, depending on which piece of the pattern was used. This means the next target higher could be up to 2097ish. But if it doesn’t happen today, astrology suggest it won’t happen. Astro is right about 80% so that means it is wrong about 20%. It is the 20% that keeps me cautious.
          So next level to upside is 2097ish spx. Astro says if it is to get there, it needs to do it today. Gann study says the same. And Fibonacci study says the same. These are great “TIME” predictors. And all three line up together pointing to today. Nothing works every time, but when three line up together, they should not be ignored.
          Time says today is it, price says 2097ish SPX is plausible for this current leg.

  51. Early days, but I’m pleased to see the FTSE down today, so I’m back to only 1% in the red.
    ES futures and commodities looking weak also.
    Is this it?

    1. If not today, another day:) Some supports to break through still at this point before we even think about heading down. That could of course happen rather quickly:D

      J

    1. Hi Bill, No this is the only place I post. Next week is:
      Seasonally strong
      Moon Phase: strong
      Distance: neutral to weak
      Declination: weak most of week, ok Friday
      Tides: falling off to much lower levels, nadir next Thursday +/-
      Astro: neutral to bullish

      Summary:
      Early November is seasonally very strong. Moon phase is starting bullish period and will be into New Moon following week. So, Mon Tues Wed intraday shorting, Th. Fri. look to long side.

      1. Valley,

        My thought is we pullback to 2040 area by wednesday and then higher next two days to 2070/80. Should be down 100 points from there in next few week. This will align next week, But question is how does it look for PALS in second week of Nov. Seasonals are -ve.

        Bill

        1. sp is starting to impulse down. I hope that was it. My spx projection was to 2097 and it looks as if it fell short a bit.

        2. Valley,

          If you don’t mind please post for next two weeks. I think Best strategy is to be short longer term and long just next week. Kind of if possible hedge a bit.

          Bill

        3. Bill,
          Week after next:
          Seasonals: weak Mon to Wed, strong Th Fr
          Phase: strong all week
          Distance: weak all week
          Declination: weak Mon To Th, strong Fr
          Planets: neutral

          Summary: this isn’t exact but approximate as I havent done chart for November yet. My guess down M Tu We next week, up Th Fr Mo open, down Tu We Th open, up Th Fr.. Thanks.

  52. One observation I would like to point out is the volume. Most price drops like Oct. 2014 rise in price on dropping volume, this is a bullish sign. This rise after the recent Aug. drop has been on high volume. This is a bearish sign. This is the big money selling while they can and they will continue to sell even as we drop. To me the cycle is playing out as expected. News cycles get a large majority to believe the recovery is in, even though the economic data is horrendous and shows in this earnings season. Next Earnings season will be much worse. The end of a big cycle always follows these patterns and I do not see much hope for economic recovery to support an ever increasing market. Time will tell. Cash is King for me.

    1. Interesting opinion on volume. Most would say that rising price on high volume is bullish.

      Obviously, for every buyer there’s a seller, and vice versa, so how can we tell who’s buying and who’s selling? Why do you think it’s big money that’s selling and dumb money that’s buying? Couldn’t it be the other way around?

      1. pimaC,

        We can argue the logic, but the correlation doesn’t change. My experience has trained me into these beliefs.

        * Bottoms have alot of volume of smart money
        * Tops have alot of volume of smart money
        * Big money cannot just exit a position like small investors

        If you invest with this in mind, it will serve you well. This logic leads me to the statment made above, but I will add more.

        * Where is this volume coming from? New investors with all the great high paying jobs being created? I say no
        * People that sold in August who now believe it is time to get back in because the economy is about to roar? I say no

        To directly answer your question, Yes it can be the other way around, but my experience says it’s not. In either case, I am playing Safe Harbor with Cash.

        Good Luck out there.

  53. Although the ES chart is very quiet today, the gold/silver ratio has taken a ‘risk off’ jump upwards, which pleases me. I wonder if we will see some selling later today in the US? (Bally hope so).
    Also, HUI only down 1% or so today, despite a big sell off in gold & silver, very telling is that.
    Come on weak bulls, take your money and run!

      1. Agree, nice charts.
        May be my bias, but I do think he’s going to be disappointed to see the dollar and gold rising together in this next bear.
        In the past 16 months the dollar index is up c. 20%, whilst gold (in dollars) is not much changed at all. A sign of gold’s relative strength I think.

  54. Action since yesterday, including overnight, looks increasingly like a bull flag. So we should expect a late evening rally just before the close which will make it a 7 wave count and therefore we will need another down and up to make it a 9 waver….unless it decides it needs to be a 13 waver.

    Old St Nic seems to be right. I’m going to plead forgiveness and hope his CB dogs are compassionate.

    1. There’s not many that would argue that CB’s don’t buy stocks/bonds….
      Both directly and indirectly..
      Clearly they do, and it’s no longer even kept behind closed doors…

      It’s just my issue has always been that ~that’s~ not a good “investment strategy”, and is at some point going to fail……….spectacularly……

      Clearly not today, nor the month of October….. :-/

      1. Barry, I’m sure you know my ‘thoughts’ about CBs. I’ve posted them often enough.

        2 things made me write that post.:

        I’ve had a bad day elsewhere and it didn’t help that I could see this ramp coming!

        And I couldn’t resist ‘sending ol’ Nic’ up. Naughty naughty me. Slap wrist.

        Sorry Nic.

        1. BTW Barry I would not give up on the ‘island purchase idea’ just yet. You may be a LOT closer than you think.

          Just save me a small part of the sandy beach please….on the ‘sunny side’ thx.

    2. The sell off was corrective this morning. But the rally is corrective as well. “a” down and “b” up, or maybe a final dia. tri. 5th wave here.??? The FM says to sell the high today and stop out if it goes any higher tomorrow.

        1. it seems to be struggling here. WE should see at least a 5 leg “C” wave down here and maybe more if the last run was a die tri 5th wave.
          I bought puts on that high just in case. Have my 15 put probe back in place, now with more protective trade location.
          I have learned to trust the FM when everything comes together with it. According to it, ES and SPX should make their highs yesterday and today. The down side potential here is grand. There will be lots of time to jump aboard for those who don’t want to risk anything until it starts. My indicators suggest picking a top here with a probe is worthwhile. If it goes any higher tomorrow however, my confidence will be shaken. The tools I am using are pinning it down to the exact day of the high. They are either right or wrong, but the odds are slightly in their favor of being right.

      1. GM, you’re seeing a pattern that has a 20-30 point move to the upside, and 1500?? points to the downside?? Am I reading that right??

        Elaborate, PLEASE… TY!

        1. No worries… Was just pulling up a list of available islands for sale for a minute there… 🙂 Got me a little excited…. hahaha

        2. I see the potential today of 2097 spx. That is a new high by only 7 points.
          The downside potential is over 265.75 points if C is equal to “A”. So today offers a rare opportunity to risk a small amount of money for a potential reward of 265 points.
          Astro, Gann, and Fib. say the top of this leg “must” be today. So we see another rare opportunity to put on a trade and know for sure if the tools are working within ONE single day. Very seldom do we get this opportunity in “time”.
          It might work, it might not work, but we don’t have to risk the farm to find out.

        3. According to “time” we should short the SPX on its high today, and we should know if we are right by the close tomorrow. Time is calling for a 1 day probe. If Gann, Fib. & astro fail us, how much can we loose in one day. If they are right, we could possibly gain 265 points ( or more) to the down side. These are the trades I like.
          I probe with a small position and pyramid if it stars working.

        4. if the spx is printing out a dia. tri. pattern here, then pattern will confirm “time” and this bull pattern will likely end before it sees 2097 SPX..

        5. IWM is struggling today as sellers emerge, it hasn’t even retraced 50% from its peak.
          Nasdaq has double topped (within a few points), but is not firing today.
          Nikkei has an island cluster top.
          Big sell off in bonds (by whom I wonder?).
          It’s all very eerie.
          Gut instinct: feels like this is the peak second chance.

  55. I’m starting to re-think my long term EW count….for the DJIA at least.

    I have for a VERY LONG TIME been on the Prechter side of the board i.e. we were in a ‘b’ wave up of an expanded flat at the all time high….and so we should expect a wave ‘c’ down to some ridiculous LOWS.

    However the action SINCE the all time high and the subsequent bounce has me considering that we may well be in a Super Cycle 4th wave down. Unlike some I don’t believe that SC4 is complete and that the recent ramp up is the start of SC5.

    I am still of the opinion that this ‘up’ wave represents the ‘b’ wave of SC4. So we should still see a ‘c’ wave down for SC4 which will take it near or lower than the 24th Aug low.

    My MAIN reason for this change of ‘heart’ is to do with the early waves after the ATH. For the life of me I can’t count a decent 5 wave count down but I can count a 3 wave count down to 24th Aug and a 3 wave count up since then. So I have to accept that the next down is a wave ‘c’ of 5 waves (whenever it starts….dear god soon I hope). That will then be SC4 ending and we will have a multi month (year?) bull market.

    Much as I find all of the above hard to comprehend (believe) it is what the waves are telling me.

    It is quite OK to HATE the methodology you use when it doesn’t fit in with your ‘world view’. BUT DON’T make the mistake of ignoring the methodology.!!

    1. Thanks for sharing this p.
      All a tad confusing to an EW novice, but are you on the same page now as Peter_?
      Or is his wave 5 different to the one you describe?
      FWIW, I still entertain the possibility of an upwards move into 2016, to new highs, but only give it a c.20% chance. It would coincide with massive combined QE from most major central banks: their final shot. I somehow doubt they are up for that though.

      1. GM, yes I’m in tandem with Peter_ on my ‘re-think’. I believe he too is still expecting another ‘down’ wave before the SC5 rally. Not sure whether Alphahorn is also saying the same thing. At one point I got the impression that he was still thinking this was part of SC4 but somewhere along the line I think he may have switched to thinking we’ve started SC5.

        Anyway I hope both of them will clarify their own positions.

        1. I’d like to apologise for the EW verbiage in my posts. I’m going to continue with that so that those that are interested can agree/disagree. However I’ll try and remember to post a ‘non EW’ summary for the EW ‘plebs’ out here. LOL. Please please that was a joke!! Tell me you all ‘got’ that one. For those not…I apologise.

    2. the 666 S&P low was an abc low. it could be a wave 4 and now in a 5 up, or it could be the a:4, and following rally is the irregular B:4.
      If 666 is an “A”, then everything from that low is an abc up. If that low was the entire wave 4, then everything following that low is a 5 legger wave 5.
      When we set back and look at the pattern it looks like a 5 legger up wave 5. But when we break it down it fits better as a strong irregular “B” wave, b:4 that is. I can see where one might see it as a wave 5 up OR an irreg. B up. It could also be called an X up, as in a,b,c, to 666 and now X. This would make the wave 4 ( starting at 2000) a complex correction as in abcxabc. But an X doesn’t usually go this high. So there are 3 noteworthy possibilities.
      On the Dow it can even be an expanding triangle whereas each leg gets bigger than the last, abcde. In the “D” leg now. Last time I looked at the Nasdaq, it looked like it could have been working a true flat with all legs being similar in length. “A” wave down to 2002 and the B up to 2015-2016. Then the “C” wave back down to the 2002 lows.
      If it is a “B” wave up here in QQQ, and Nasdaq, and a “D” wave up here in the Dow, then this up leg nearly has to be a B wave in the SPX. It could have made its “A” & “B” early in this leg and now in the later parts of the 5 leg “C” wave.
      The question is, was the 2130’s high a wave 3 high or the v:5 high? If it was v:5, then this current bullish leg is doomed. If the 2130’s high was a 3, then at some point would could see a wave 5 go higher. We may find out the answer to this question in the next few days. We may not know if the SP top is a “B” wave, and Dow a “D” wave, and QQQ a B wave until they all break down to new lows near or below the spx 666 2009 low. It seems a massive bear leg to the 2009 lows or lower is likely. Defining the top of this leg is more tricky than expected. I am sure the Bankers interference has a lot to do with it.
      If the top of the DOW, Nasdaq, and SP are in with a v:5 at the recent highs, then we will get a giant a,b,c, down with this top being the top of the “b”.
      So we have three possibilities for a high here. #1, 1867 low was the entire wave 4, and now in 5 up. OR #2, 1867 is a:4 and now in flatish b:4. OR, 2130’s finished the B leg up and now in the giant a,b,c, down. In this 3rd case, this bullish leg would be the B wave or the b:A wave down.
      We may be able to narrow these 3 options to two options in the next few days. There are always at least two options in EW. Sometimes there are many more and that is when things get really muddy.

      1. GN although all the indicators seem to line up for Oct 29 there can be current transits “on the ground” so to speak that delay things….. the Mars Venus conjunction is very powerful and does not complete till Monday eve 11/2. The Moon also is making a declination top over the weekend. So things are not fully cooked.

        1. I had three timing tools pointing to yesterday as a peak of some degree. Time will tell how important the high. We have divergences everywhere that support a turn taking place sometime soon. A few might be seen here.
          SP 500 Is Chopping Higher With Negative Divergence

        2. FM still working for ES but not the cash market. Troublesome because we have more events to look forward to now.
          Nov 3 NYSE G Jupiter 72° and DOW G Saturn 36°
          Then on Nov 9 S&P G Uranus 36°. Typically, ( I’m told) the Nov. 9 events would carry the most weight and could cause a top of major consequences.
          This is troublesome because the charts suggest a top is coming much sooner.
          The 5 down on Fri. could have been a c:4 OR a wave 1 down. It was a c:4 on the cash, but the jury is still out on the ES.

    1. “Earnings short fall are swiftly met with decapitation. ” This is exactly what I said when earnings season began and the opposite is true. If you were one of the very few companies to give a good report, launch to Heaven. Bad report, into hell you go. This Bipolar market reminds me very much of the lead up into 2000.

      Be safe out there.

  56. Once again I have gone long US treasuries (Ten year note futures). I posted both my prior longs and when I offset (with a profit) and good thing I did because the last two days saw a severe sell-off. Too bad I didn’t reverse and double up to the downside.

    NG rallied up today and I moved my stop up and got stopped out. Weather looks to turn unto a “second summer” for the USA and that points toward the 2012 lows being exceeded to the downside. Anyone still long might want to consider “cutting their loses short” before they become devastating.

    I am still short World Sugar futures and I am looking to add to my shorts on a sell-off.

    I am still looking for a new ATH in the DOW before I consider shorting it even though I know that is not popular on this board (so far I have been correct).

    1. It should be noted that from the 2014 lows Ten year US treasuries notes could be rallying in an Elliot “3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd” and that would be the case should stocks eventually crash even if from a new ATH for the DOW.

      1. The “second chance top” in the DOW –might– be in “if” Ten year US treasuries are starting up in an Elliot “3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd” while the DOW declines in an Elliot major 3rd wave.

        1. I had lowered my stops in Sugar and got stopped out with a minor loss. I just double upped on my Ten year note futures partly because the market seems pleased with the government’s debt ceiling being raised –and– because I don’t want to miss out on an Elliot “3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd” should it happen. Most Ellioticians will never actually catch one in their life times.

    2. Nat Gas is painful to say the least, the Nov. Heat wave ends aroung Thanksgiving and it gets stormy and cold which could last a good while. It could be a very interesting cold and stormy winter. I am sticking it out in Nat Gas. It’s been painful, but what is a little more pain. I have one more bullet for Nat Gas on weakness, so I will wait for a good drop if it occurs.

      1. Still holding nat gas longs too. Currently $3 away from breakeven but very small position. Will only add to the position if we get below $20. Historically prices always rise around this time of the year and I holding for that even if its delayed by the warmer weather. I was expecting nat gas to rally to $35 but I’m only looking for $27-$28 now to exit my longs. I’m out of my small dow long on the spike this morning but looking for crude to start its next leg lower to go short equity markets. With all the commodity deflation reducing inflation globally its going to be a shock when things turn round as inflation will increase quite quickly ending the ridiculous policies currently in use at central banks. Maybe central banks manipulated commodity prices lower to reduce inflation and giving them more reason to continue easing. For the record I’m looking for a 5-6% drop in markets in November before a full recovery into year end and then much bigger drops early next year when hopefully it will be clearer that earnings/revenue peaked in 2015.

    1. Hi Geno. Good to know that you are still around. Should I be reading the above chart to mean that we are in iv currently?

      Please can you tell me what the scale is on this chart?

      Not sure how to read the bottom part of the chart. Clearly 40 is an important line but you seem to show both Buy AND Sell when it goes below 40. Hence my confusion.

      1. Geno, I just realised that the first chart may be from an earlier date. It doesn’t show the 213x top in May. Please can you tell me when the first chart goes up to? Also would it be possible to update it to the present? Thx in advance.

  57. Purvez – Here is the updated chart. I was looking for white wave iv to bottom around 1700, it only reached 1820. I was looking for white wave 3 to top at 2120, it reached 2134. I was looking for wave 4 to bottom at 1860, I think the wave 4 bottom was at 1867 and we’re now in wave 5 which should take us to 2400.

    The lower indicator is the ADX with DMI. The ADX indicates the strength of a trend in either direction. When the ADX is over 40 it indicates a strong trend. When this rolls over it gives a sell signal. When it drops back below 40 it gives another sell signal.

    This is a monthly chart and has given both sell signals at this point, so bullish caution is warranted.

    1. Thx for the updated chart Geno. I can now see where we are currently.

      What would make you consider moving your iii to the May top?

      Well let’s just wait to see what the market really gives us.

      1. No, I like the iii and the 3 where they are. It could be though, but the placements are also based on indicator studies. Excellent question and I can see why you’d ask that based on the trend channel.

  58. Headline – “Market in melt-up mode?”

    Gotta love that headline, in this market, I see that as a “Tuck your head between your knees and kiss your DREAMS `,~) goodbye”

  59. Hi Purvez and all. The ECB should increase QE soon, as announced by Draghi a few days ago. Again, everything looks good. The markets are still well supported by central banks. It’s not my fault. Don’t shoot the messenger.

    1. Nic, What is your explanation on how the world comes out of an easing cycle? How do the nations currency controllers reconcile relative to each other? This cycle of currency manipulation is one Gigantic experiment and I would love to hear your explanation. I have yet to meet ANYONE that can answer, including top economists. My speculation is that Humans Fail and sometimes in epic nature and we have created a Grand sand trap of currency. Just claiming a currency has value and over exeritng that claim has lead to complete default in history and it can happen again. Complete collapse and wars are usually involved, so how do we reconcile it this time?

      So how do you view this conundrum?

      1. Nicolas doesn’t have any views, except smug bull comments. At least, only when he is near breakeven, whenever the markets go down he disappears.

        We have tried to engage with him in the beginning when we thought he was actually genuinely naive. Now, we just don’t feed that troll.

        But good luck on getting a reply that makes sense….:)

        J

      2. ALL good questions, JaFree, but i’m afraid what you responded to ~is~ the analysis Nicolas provides…….every time the market is “up”…
        He’s on “vacation” when the market goes down…

        Looking forward to being proven mistaken here, but alas…. :-/

        That said, seems that dear ole’ Nicolas is getting prolific in his self back-slapping again, and the last time that happened was back in about May, I believe…

        Just mentioning it…

      3. This will not end well. The government knows it and has made preparations giving them king like powers. Indefinite detention will befall many law abiding citizens who merely want to ask questions. It is now legal in the US for the establishment to arrest, detain, torture, and assassinate law abiding citizens without giving them counsel or a trial. Obama has assassinated 4 law abiding US citizens under his new law, ( 4 that we know of), some were minors under 17 years of age. It will be a shock to many who think Rome can’t fall from a currency collapse…but it did, and will again. We just don’t know when. Can’t keep doubling a debt every 6 to 8 years forever. The most sad part is, most will be in denial that it is a deliberate act.

        1. Golden Nugget, I don’t disagree with anything you just said. However, traders/investors/analysts have been saying the same thing for years now. It’s likely we will get a collapse of some kind, maybe complete currency failure. But when? Next year, 2020, 2050? Meanwhile, if you want to make money from the markets, it sure looks like betting on the long side is the higher odds bet.

        2. There is a good chance we saw the high for this leg in the futures on Thurs. and the cash indexes made a new 1 or 2 point high today. This can be a 1,2,3 up from Aug. low but the odds favor an abc up. If it is a 1,2,3, then we see a w4 correction starting early next week. If it is an abc up, as it appears, the “C” wave sell off will take out the Aug. lows without slowing down. I am positioned short very near the high. If it makes a new high early next week then I will stop out and stand on the sidelines with a small loss. Risk is small here compared to the potential reward. But if it goes down in impulse fashion, pyramid. From the high yesterday the ES dropped down and took out the first support level. First time since this bull leg began. Likewise the SPX stopped within a few points of it’s projection and did the same. First time it took out even the most minor support since the bull began. This isn’t proof of a reversal, but it is strong evidence. And the futures high so far was made on the day Gann, Fib. and the F.M. said it would. When time and price come together, we have to probe at it.
          We also have divergences on about every time frame we look at.
          The bullish side is, there was buying on weakness today, and the bankers are doing about all they can to prop the markets up.
          Many thanks for the caution flags. I have stops in place in case these tools fail me.

          Inline image

        3. pima, you still think betting on the long side is the way to make money, after the past 12 months? You believe the myth it would appear.

          Some facts:

          ES futures 60 points higher now than 12 months ago.
          FTSE 100 futures c.200 points lower.
          IWM futures c.unchanged.

          Within these past 12 months the market has been up and down, but you display a certain naivete if you don’t recognise this as a topping process.

          As for currency collapses, we have the deflation first into 2020, then the loss of faith in sovereigns and most central banks, then it all goes of the rails progressively through to 2034, ending with dollar collapse at around that time.

          All of the above are side issues, the only issue that really matters is whether the US stokes up wars with China & Russia. They are already trying hard. Likely they will continue. Escalation to nuclear conflict is one of my main concerns, that and how the UK reacts to its demise. I plan to be elsewhere.

        4. I am more concerned about what our own government is doing. It has been hi-jacked by the bankers. I have been asked to take up arms against the US government many times. But never asked to take up arms against Russia. Something bad wrong when civilians are asked to stop the Feds. from stealing property to, the excuse they use, to protect a jumping field mouse, tortoise, or a lizard. They have surrendered every time, but that will not last. They will figure out a way to steal property by saying the deeds are not valid. Some people have owned their homes and land for 70 years only to hear the government say their deed is not valid and they will loose their homes to the Agenda 21 program. This can happen to any of us.
          Their current program is designed to disarm those who stop them, and those who protect the constitution. I suspect it becomes more real if and when a person stands muzzle to muzzle with the Feds. Dan Love usually leads the bunch. If we have to stand against a Russian, it will most likely be one of Obama’s Russian mercenary’s. Listen to SGT. Major Dan Page. He can tell you how many are being kept in our military bases.

        5. You must not live in the US. I can show you stand off after stand off in the US. Citizens taking up arms against the establishment.

          Imagine coming home from work to find the roads going to your home blocked and then seeing your livestock shot. Your told that you and your cattle are a threat to a local tortoise. When you try to ask normal questions such as when can I access my home because my children are there alone, your questions are met by tasers, tackling mercenaries, and attack dogs.
          Bundy standoff! Bundy Ranch Protesters Tasered by Federal Agents and Attacked by K9’s

          You won’t see this on censored TV. Listen carefully what the militia says early on in this tape.
          If you want to take the next ranch you will have to arrest us or kill us.

        6. GN, re ‘elsewhere’, I’m thinking of a Greek island, or the Canaries maybe, a long way from land, and hopefully reasonably stable.

        7. GM,

          I think the long side carries higher odds than being short. You’re right that the market has been in a trading range for a year. But bulls have made money during this time by buying the dips and riding their positions back up to the highs. Will we break out to higher highs? We can only guess at the answer. Caldaro thinks we are in the final 5th wave up from the 2009 lows, and that that 5th wave began at the August low. He’s expecting new all time highs before the market finally tops out sometime next year. Other prognosticators, Mahendra for one, are expecting the bull market to continue into 2017. With CB’s doing things they’ve not done before, we’re in a brave new world where one has to wonder whether historical studies no longer have relevance.

          Regarding a currency collapse, you mention deflation. Isn’t that the opposite of a currency collapse? Dollar gets stronger, prices go down. Seems to be where we’re at at the moment.

        8. I didn’t mention deflation. I am expecting hyper inflation when everything begins to break down. People with paper money may loose the most while those with hard assets and food assets like gold, silver, crops, & cattle may loose very little.
          Those with food assets such as crops and cattle may do the best unless the establishment tries to confiscate the food by calling it nationalizing. In that case, those with food assets may loose everything due to government theft.

      4. Hi Jafree ! I think central banks can control pretty much all markets. They can keep rates at 0 and continue to buy bonds and stocks for a long time to come. Don ‘t forget that when rates are at 0, the value of stocks and bonds increase. So, they are doing a good job by driving the markets higher.
        You’re right that at some point there might be a crash, especially if they try to reverse their policies. At that point, i will re evaluate my positions and philosophy.
        regards and don’t hesitate to ask questions. I am here to help new investors.

  60. Well overall a pretty disastrous october for the bears if you were actually short all the way through. November next up so time for Bo Polny to shine we hope. Can you actually have the best month in 4 years during a bear market??

  61. Also, don’t forget that a lot of people on this board, including John, have been calling market tops for a long time, acually for years now. I hate to say it, but i’ve been right all along.
    So, it’s important to keep that in mind.

    1. Why would you hate to say you have been right all along. Oh wait I forgot…you are actually short and losing big money. Explains it all! I do hope the market crashes soon so you can make some money Nic.

    2. Nic, how can you say that you’ve been right all along? Honestly, it’s quite queer of you.

      Markets are either flat or down around the world this year and while John’s crash scenario hasn’t played out (yet) he may very well be right on his call of a major market top. The story is still to be told.

  62. For the past several weeks I have primarily been a lurker although I have posted regularly before that for the past 18-20 months since I followed this blog. It seems so many folks have come out of the woodwork and making grand claims backed up by such-and-such logic as to what will happen in the stock market, and it really is too challenging to really believe who is correct or really possess a strong foundation or methodology. In some ways all of this extra crowd noise now drowns everyone else out, especially those who post like up to ten times daily, and probably the reason I have resorted to lurking rather than contributing since now no one hears or listens to the tree that topples in the middle of a forest.

    I will only state this one important observation. For those who followed the blog at least one year ago, there was significant bearish sentiment during the Sep/Oct 2014 nose dive. On the fast and sharp recovery many folks figured it was a dead cat bounce and kept looking for shorting opportunities which was dead wrong, or only slightly better, holding on to hugely profitable shorts that evaporated into huge losses. Numerous reasons were given to attempt to explain why it all acted in this manner, but the bottom line is to understand the lesson the market was teaching everyone and move on as a wiser investor.

    Fast forward to today’s Aug/Sep 2015 plummet which was even more severe than autumn 2014. For those of you who peruse this blog for over a year benefit from or learn anything that happened about a year ago? If you could go back in time and do anything different what would you do different?

    Think about that action, and instead of going back in time, merely apply that rational and sound reasoning in TODAY’s market! It really is that uncomplicated …

    1. Delta wise the S+P 500 is unique in that it has two Long Term Rotations: an eighteen point rotation and a six point rotation. Last year’s crash was the eighteen point rotation’s inversion window crash and this year’s crash was the six point rotation’s inversion window crash.

      The Delta question of the day is whether a six point Long Term Rotation inbetween point brought in point 6 of the Super Long Term Rotation or will it’s point 3.

    2. Hi Steve;
      Not sure if you’re directing this at me or not, but probably enough applies that it might…

      So, the short answer to your question is yes, i absolutely learned something from last October, and it paid off in spades in Aug/Sept…

      The longer answer is; August was my best month ~ever~….and over 80% of my short positions were pulled off in the first 15 minutes of Aug 24th…

      It was about the most intense trading moments of my life, as i was covering shorts, and the positions were STILL showing in my accounts…

      And for about 10 minutes I had no idea if i still had the positions, or what the fills would be if/when they came back…. All I could see was that my account equity was going down with each passing minute…
      Fortunately, when the positions dropped out of my position listings, and the fills started being reported, the fills were good….real good….and the account equity got back to about where i was thinking it should have been… So all was good…

      Anyway, I added back ~some~ shorts in the small move higher in the days following, only to liquidate them all in the second move down….
      September wound up being a pretty damn good month too, but nothing like the last week of august..

      Anyway, at that time, I was flat for a few days, kinda letting things settle out, and as the charts started looking more bullish… At that point, I started buying, and I was actually long into early October….
      Not saying I caught the exact bottom on my buys or sells, but played it decently, and most of the time that’s about all anyone can hope for…

      So yes, i definitely learned something from last year…
      That said, I starting scaling out of those longs in early October, and started scaling into shorts at that point… So maybe not ~enough~ learning… hahaha

      Clearly, too early, but at the same time I tend to scale into and out of positions…

      So while I certainly could have played the last few weeks better, I think I learned quite a bit from last October…

      And the reason I seem to be coming out of the woodwork again now is because I recently completed working on a short-term project for a former employer… Started Aug, ended 2 weeks ago…
      It was good to get back at it for a bit, but it also helped remind me why I retired a few years ago… hahahha

      Sadly, I was gone for a couple of months from here, but not because I was on “vacation”…. :-/

    3. Steve, you sound like you think that the bull marches on from here?
      There are a tonne of reasons (explained by John and others) why this year looks very different from last year, hence a good number of us are short now.
      I assume you’re long?
      Some clarification of your positions would be so much more beneficial than talk, because, as we all know, talk is cheap.
      FWIW, I think you’re dead wrong, it’s that simple.
      But please elaborate.

    1. spx top should be in also. SPX projection was up to 2097 spx, but I thought it might fall short of that projection. It made it to 2094 and change and fell from there.
      The down leg is impulse in character so that was probably it. When I see a bounce followed by another 5 down I will add the rest of my short position to my probe.

  63. SPX took out the first support just before the close. This was the first support taken out since this bull leg started. SPX fell short of the EW (2097 spx) projection by 2.75 points. Glad it did. If top is in as expected, we should see a 3 legger bounce followed by a w3 down. These obvious trades are never easy to enter with good trade location. It seems the market must convince us we are wrong before opening the door.
    I have 15 putties from yesterday (All profitable now) and now looking to pyramid.

    1. Bundy’s didn’t own a ranch, they were using Federal land.

      Hope they end up in jail where they belong.

      I am not a US citizen but all those who visit the US tell me, “they are lovely people BUT they are all crazy”.

      And that comes from ALL of them.

      So a bit or rational thinking could help.

      1. Glad to hear that others are taking an interest in what is going on in the US.
        You probably got your info about Federal land from the bankers censored TV. Bundy does own a large ranch. And the land he was crazing cattle on is owned by the state of Nevada, not the Federal Government. He had a contract with the state of Nevada that allowed him to graze some of his cattle on “state” owned land. The cost was 1.40 for each cow. He had 400 cattle on the state land. So he owed the “state” 400 X 1.40 = 560.00. The Federal Government did not have any business in the affairs between the state and a private citizen. They muscled their way in by saying the cattle and people were creating a hardship on a tortoise ( reptile similar to a turtle). It wasn’t just the Bundy ranch. They blocked off 80 square miles of land that 53 families lived in. They put up signs that said anyone caught on this land would be arrested and jailed. They had no right to tell Nevada citizens they could not go onto land they owned. The government tried everything they could to steal that land. If not for the militia, they would have got away with it.
        Keep in mind, the government spent 3 million dollars on that operation. Does it make sense they would spend that much money to protect a turtle that they themselves kill by the hundreds, or to collect 560.00 from the ranchers just so they could give that money to the state. The money was owed to the state, not the government. The government was trying to steal all 80 square miles of land from the state and from the Nevada citizens. The state was owed that money, not the Federal government. And what gives them the right to slaughter the privately owned cattle of the 53 families within the 80 square miles? They had no authority to do that.
        That is why they surrendered and went on to the next piece of land they wanted to steal. They had no legal ties to any of the 80 square miles.
        When they left Nevada they went after 1/2 million acres in New Mexico. They said they were taking over that land ( including the privately owned land) to protect a common mouse.
        Subject: 5/21 -Feds want another 1/2 million acres in New Mexico, Sheriff warns them to back off..

        Feds are taking both private land and public land by force. Their motive is said to be, to protect food and water supply for mice and tortoise.

        #1, Feds fencing landowners off their own land to protect a field mouse. One land owner said ” I paid for my land, and I’ll be damned if the feds are going to tell me I can’t use even a sliver of it”!
        http://www.independentsentinel.com/feds-seize-new-mexico-ranch-to-rid-the-west-of-ranchers/
        http://www.infowars.com/to-protect-a-mouse-forest-service-cuts-off-water-access-in-new-mexico/

        #2, Biggest land grab in history. Obama wants 1/2 million acres in southern New Mexico. Local sheriff’s protest.
        This time the feds might be fighting the militia & sheriff dept. combined.

        #3, Now stealing from Texas.
        BLM Texas Land Grab: Your Deed is Worthless, So Your …
        http://www.truthandaction.org/blm-texas-land-grab-deed-worthless-land…/2/
        Ken stated that the BLM “owns” the from the middle of the Red River to … that is the BLM will not be easy, but when family and property are threatened, self …

        View on http://www.youtube.com

        #4, Feds come in a convoy to steal and kill cattle found on private and public land, to protect a tortoise. When questioned by unarmed peaceful citizens, the citizens are attacked, tasered, and arrested. ~~Nevada

      2. Several Federal Judges ( who certainly know the law) said the Federal Agents at Bundy ranch should have been arrested and tried for Felony larceny. Some even said if those Federal agents where in their court room they would probably find themselves behind bars for a very long time.
        You are probably hearing the banker’s propaganda news rather than the truth.

  64. An interesting chart, and a thought….

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$VIX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p13213403718

    Fair to say that we’ve been in a bullish market for years now, and please notice that every time the blue line has pierced the lower boundry, that been a VERY good “buy” point… Hard to argue that….

    But suppose we’re transitioning into a bear market…
    Would the opposite be in effect??
    Every time the blue line pierces the upper boundry, that would be a very good “sell” point??

    I throw it out as a consideration…
    But if it is….give-or-take….we’re there…

  65. I am not keen on a summary post of all stuff I have mentioned during the past one year plus. If you really want to know then just click on the comments link of past blog articles and do a CTRL-F search for ‘Steve T’ posts. John likely posts a new article on Sunday and nobody would read any more comments from this one, so why bother.

    But I have given specific reasons for some past uncanny accurate calls with quite precise timeframe that were provided in some instances two or three months in advance before it occurred. If you are too lazy with CTRL-F then so be it … This blog format is not the ideal platform for collaboration or indexing …

    1. Steve, you obfuscate.
      I think rather than adopting a haughty tone, best to put your hands up to a crappy comment, maybe you were having a bad day, I don’t know?
      I’d still love to hear your views and positioning at this time.
      Thanks.

  66. PALS next two weeks for SPX:

    Declination: nothing good next two weeks
    Phase: positive next two weeks, especially after this Wed.
    Distance: nothing good especially first three days of next week 9,10,11th of Nov.
    Tides: bottom this Thursday (big sell off sometimes occurs into bottoming), then
    rise until Nov 13th.
    Seasonals: strong except for this Friday, and next Mon, Tues, Wed
    Planets: neutral

    Summary: based upon PALS I will be looking for prices to be lower by three to four percent sometime between now and November 13th. Hard to predict exact turns but next two weeks should at best be flat selling until low tide on Thursday and then swinging up and back into end of next week.

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