Roundup

NASA now estimates the solar peak to be ‘summer 2013’, which is line with Jan’s latest. As forecasts are still being amended by both SIDC and NASA, we will just have to see how sunspots develop, but the key for me remains whether February 2012’s peak-to-date can be beaten.

My suggested mirror from history is 1946-7, into the solar peak, treasury yields reverse course from ultra-low. Here is the Bradley model for 1946 courtesy of WX Guru.

4jun20137Source: Llewellyn Publications

A similar model to this year’s Bradley, with a peak in June.

Gann Global maintain the closest mirror is the 1950s and draw out this map for commodities (using the BLS commodities index):

4jun20134Source: Consensus / Gann Global

I still foresee commodities rising and outperforming as stocks lose momentum and the USD weakens. Leading indicators suggest emerging markets and Europe should outperform going forward, which should bolster commodities and the Euro.

Here we see PMIs for various European countries turning up:

4jun20136Source: Moneymovesmarkets

I have added to long sugar today. It has been languishing on oversold and overbearish readings for some time now. That does not mean a turnaround has to happen. But it has pulled back sufficiently for me to want to add.

4jun20135

Source: Indexmundi

I have also added to long Natural Gas today. It has pulled back from having reached over 4.5 dollars to just under 4. It is still at historic cheapness and relative pricing to oil. Plus it is in a better position in terms of inventories compared to crude.

4jun20132Source: IEA

And lastly today I have opened a long position in the Poland WIG stock index. Here is is modelled against the latest geomagnetism update.

4jun20133Geomagnetism has changed significantly over the last month, from benign to troublesome. I believe this has been a factor in stocks pulling back. As can be seen, the geomagnetism forecast for the next 3 weeks is not good, but I wanted to open a position in the WIG and it is just a starter position. With a current reasonable p/e of 12 and a likely improvement ahead in Europe, I decided to start that position today.

 

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10 thoughts on “Roundup

  1. Hi John. This is the weekly tick moneyflow data from WSJ
    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfsctrscan-moneyflow.html?mod=mdc_leader

    There is only historical data back to 2010. I find these numbers very interesting, but guess I need some more years data before they get useful.
    An observation to the image above: looks like the total moneyflow since 2010 mostly has gone sideways, as if the same money enters and leaves the market. And the buyers seem to create most momentum and therefore and uptrend.

    If this is correct, the moneyflow is now at very oversold level. Only the 2011-crash found more sellers. This could indicate that some money on the sideline soon enters again, unless we crash.

    Overall I have signals of SPX having momentum that should carry it on to around August at least. So perhaps we have to see some money entering again, to create new selling potential.

    At the moment I have no good setups and stay in cash. My swingtrade for Norway is waiting for the next upswing… and as I wait the index may crash lower, or start to give buy-signal 🙂

    1. One thing to keep in mind about all flows and traders. There are the committed longs and the committed shorts but ALWAYS the undecided which may push either side up. How do you gauge the undecided? It would require Xavier skills.

  2. A final run for commodities? 2008 and 2011 were big in commodities. The CCI made a major top in 2011 after having an Elliott type 3 in 2008. The CRB made its top in 2008 and a secondary top in 2011. Coincidentally, the $ bottomed in 2008 and double bottomed in 2011. Individual commodities that topped in 2008 were wheat, oats, rice, platinum, oil, heating oil, gasoline, Euro, £, €, and Canadian$. 2011 was even more: silver, gold, copper, platinum, soy complex, corn, hogs, cattle (2012), cotton, Swiss F, Yen, Aussie, sugar, oj, coffee, and cocoa. Treasuries topped last year and appear to have been under distribution for almost a year.
    So could it be 2008, 2011, 2014? Yes, and I think the key is in the grains. There charts are still in parabolic upswings. The recent volatility has convinced me both ways recently. 2 weeks ago they had a clear breakout, but reversed dramatically. They did not follow through to the downside and started a strong rally but haven’t carried through to a high above the “breakout” of 2 weeks ago – 1550. The beans are in short supply – characteristic of a top unless they go into even shorter supply. The COT is in a position to support a rally, but have been more bullish at earlier bottoms. The fullness of time.

  3. Hi Kent,

    I thought you were of the view that the top was in? My cycle has the final gold blow off top in 2015. It may be the Fed bottle ‘tapering’ as they are worried about having a strong dollar vs weakness in Yen and Eur, leading commods to fly.

    We shall see but I see a gold top ahead and not behind us and am positioned accordingly.

    Regards,

    Kerry

    1. That is my view. Just trying to see the alternative possibilities. It wouldn’t be the first time the markets would have completely fooled me.

  4. short term: Norway has an average 36TD wave, and the normal confuguration is two of these within the ~80TD planetary tidal cycle (which has an ideal low around June 15 +/- some weeks for the market)

    The current 36TD wave in Norway looks like this, and is allready in its normal bottom-interval. Could end the wave with a bullish conslidation today, or make an overtime flush down first

    For SPX I have two scenarios:
    -either we rally up to the top, and want to sell at ~1670
    -or we flush down to ~1600 and want to buy up to 1680+

  5. I just can not help thinking what my gut says and that is another push upwards to new highs regardless of all the analysis. Call me crazy. Better just to stay long and trade yourself out if it plunges. Money management is better than prediction. =)

  6. Looking forward to being able to provide multi-year Bradley’s someday soon. If you match up the other 2013 bradley next to the one from same site of 2007-2013…it’s peak on 22 June 2013 is lower then February 2012. As for geomagetism had to adjust my eyes to realize your chart was WIG and not SPX. Haven’t quite figured out the lunar negative and positive periods and how that changes formula. Checkout the following condensed view to 2020:

    Back to 1910:

    1. Hi wx,
      I dont know much about Bradley.
      I have always thought its a long term cycle.
      But when I look at your Bradley Siderograph 2005-20……..
      …except for 10-11, the low is always at the beginning of the year, the high is in the middle of the year, or there abouts , and the low is obviously back at the end of the year.
      So there’s a pattern. Short term ??
      Now does ANY market look like this ?
      Not mine.
      regards
      bob

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