NASA now estimates the solar peak to be ‘summer 2013’, which is line with Jan’s latest. As forecasts are still being amended by both SIDC and NASA, we will just have to see how sunspots develop, but the key for me remains whether February 2012’s peak-to-date can be beaten.
My suggested mirror from history is 1946-7, into the solar peak, treasury yields reverse course from ultra-low. Here is the Bradley model for 1946 courtesy of WX Guru.
A similar model to this year’s Bradley, with a peak in June.
Gann Global maintain the closest mirror is the 1950s and draw out this map for commodities (using the BLS commodities index):
I still foresee commodities rising and outperforming as stocks lose momentum and the USD weakens. Leading indicators suggest emerging markets and Europe should outperform going forward, which should bolster commodities and the Euro.
Here we see PMIs for various European countries turning up:
I have added to long sugar today. It has been languishing on oversold and overbearish readings for some time now. That does not mean a turnaround has to happen. But it has pulled back sufficiently for me to want to add.
I have also added to long Natural Gas today. It has pulled back from having reached over 4.5 dollars to just under 4. It is still at historic cheapness and relative pricing to oil. Plus it is in a better position in terms of inventories compared to crude.
And lastly today I have opened a long position in the Poland WIG stock index. Here is is modelled against the latest geomagnetism update.
Geomagnetism has changed significantly over the last month, from benign to troublesome. I believe this has been a factor in stocks pulling back. As can be seen, the geomagnetism forecast for the next 3 weeks is not good, but I wanted to open a position in the WIG and it is just a starter position. With a current reasonable p/e of 12 and a likely improvement ahead in Europe, I decided to start that position today.