Time to draw them all together and see the full correlations. This is US-based analysis due to data availability.
The first chart (click to view larger) reveals historic spikes in US interest rates, 10 year treasury yields, MZM money velocity and US inflation (averaging official CPI and Shadowstats data) all within a 2 year period around the solar maximum (note the 1968 solar max was November and the 1979 solar maximum December, hence the 2 year boxes following; also note some of the measures have been scaled to share the same chart).
Stepping back further in time, the 1947 solar maximum was accompanied by a 1947 inflationary peak, followed by spikes in corporate bond yields by 1948 and treasury bond yields by 1950.
If the next solar maximum is ahead in Autumn 2013, then by history we should see spikes in rates, yields, velocity and inflation within around 2 years of each other and of the solar maximum. Is it different this time because the government has acted to surpress both interest rates and bond yields? With velocity correlating closely with bond yields, is an inflationary peak not going to happen this time? I believe it will happen, as the same surpression occurred in the 1940s and yet the spikes took place.
The second chart (click to view larger) adds in real commodities using the CRB index adjusted for inflation (and again scaled). Interestingly, real commodities behave very similarly to rates, yields, inflation and velocity – all moving together into peaks (orange boxes) and troughs (red boxes), over periods lasting around 3 years.
There is a general pattern of collective peaks around each sunspot peak, and additional collective peaks before solar mimima. I don’t yet understand why we see rallies leading into solar mimina, however they have historically set up the panics and crashes that occur at the solar minimum. Nonetheless, yields, commodities, velocity and inflation all acting together is suggestive of waves of ‘human exctitement’ that brings about speculating, buying and circulating money in the economy, or the opposite.
The third chart adds the real inflation-adjusted S&P500 and US demographics trends (middle to old and middle to young ratios combined) into the picture. Here we again see evidence of ‘human excitement’ correlating with sunspot peaks as some combination of real stocks, real commodities and inflation spike up around the solar maximum.
In summary, there appears to be a 4-way correlation between equities, sunspots, demographics and inflation, whilst there appears to be a 5-way correlation between rates, yields, velocity, inflation and real commodities. My solar-theory take on it is that the same phenomenon of human excitement (driven up and down by the solar cycle) translates into trends in buying, asset speculation and circulating money, hence the united correlations, whilst demographics (which also have a solar input: solar maximum peaks (and occasionally troughs) in births) additionally feed into equities due to investment/disinvestment in equities, relating to retirement.
I’d be interested in your thoughts on any of the correlations in the charts. I suspect there is more to be teased out.