Did the mania leader, Biotech, peak out on the Equinox, 20 March?
Too early to determine, but the relevance of the Equinox is here:
Not just Biotech, but the wider US markets, the Dax, the Euro-USD and gold all appear to have made tentative reversals at this Equinox. Is it going to stick? I moved back in short US stocks and long gold.
This is a stock market on borrowed time since last year’s solar maximum:
Geomagnetism has ramped up just like at the 2000 peak:
The NYSE looks to be at the end of a topping process that has seen declining breadth, rising volatility and a gradual increase in risk-off appetite:
Sentiment, allocations and valuations are all saturated. Economic surprises and leading indicators are negative. Fed balance sheet expansion has ceased, and central bank actions are being revealed to be fairly impotent….
In short, why would stocks not have topped out here?
We have negative pressure into the full moon of April 4th. Then earnings season gets underway. Plus that familiar topping pattern may have formed:
Nothing repeats exactly, but a break beneath the existing March 2015 lows this coming week looks to be key. If instead the stalling of Thurs/Fri last week lets the bulls back in this week then a more complex topping pattern could unfold. But as things stand this all looks increasingly promising to me. A key week ahead.