1. SP500 – the rally since Thursday has kept both bull and bear cases open:
2. However, volume has been weak on the rally versus the falls – the reverse of December’s rally from correction:
3. Call/Put versus SP500 – see U Karlewitz comment at bottom of chart:
4. Rydex Bull-Bear versus SP500 – again see U Karlewitz comment at foot:
5. Cyclicals continue to display relative weakness despite the rally:
6. The Nasdaq 100 is the most bullish looking US index, but continues to reveal underlying breadth divergence:
7. The Russell 2000 is currently the weakest index, but still has a long way to fall to mean-revert in valuation:
8. Bull-defining parabolic stock, sector and index charts which have yet to break down (whilst others have):
9. Economic Surprise Index latest – a reversal of fortunes in 2014 bar Japan:
10. Commodities inventories latest – tightening broadly in progress (and echoed in some softs):
Gold, gold miners and treasury bonds continue to attract money flows despite the stock market rally of the last few days. I have added to my short stock index positions today and will add more if we move higher still. Based on the indicators in my last post and this, I expect the rally to top out imminently and revisit the lows of last week. At that point we can review to see if indicators have washed out more thoroughly. Based on bigger picture indicators I don’t expect the market to recover from there, but first we can judge that nearer term picture for clues. I would stop adding shorts if US indices rallied back up to their highs on good breadth, volume and renewed cyclical strength, with accompanying weakness in gold and treasuries. Yellen speaking today and likely some market reaction to her overall tone.
S O L A R C Y C L E S 
Since the swing low, even down on the 1 minute charts, there has not been a single sell signal I recognize in the index etf’s.Expected yesterday… did not happen.Last call in the QQQ before a new high is 8840.
a note .. though I am primarily a short term trader, I am long ag etf in agreement with John’s recent position post for a long term trade with stop below recent low.
Thanks Slater
John, would you mind answer my question in the past article, please;if you have the kindness and courtesy. Thanks in advance.
@apanalis
Hi Antonio, I believe I answered it in the last paragraph of today’s post. Let me know if not.
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February 10, 2014
In summary, John your idea is to increase short positions from12 of feb to 14th feb to mantein until 14-17th feb´14? or will be the last opportunity to be short for a long time?
@apanalis
Reply
Antonio Pérez Algás
February 10, 2014
ViX indicator, must close two gaps downwards
@apanalis
Reply
Potentially the best opportunity to short and hold, but we see how price and indicators behave.
I concur, John, around 16k Dow Jones is short for me, no matter if we reach 17k, if the expectation is at least 30-40% decline, always trading with Etfs, in my case.
Thanks.
@apanalis
John, Great Work…Great Site…Thank You!
Thanks Paul
could use a burst up in AAPL TO 540 to get QQQ to 8840 without taking the other indexes with it.
You got the QQQ marginal new high, the only one to do so, how does that sit?
John, I can’t agree more…and barring another round of euphoric buying spree, I believe Russell 2000 is the best short from a mean aversion standpoint.
I too added to my short positions.
John, does the move in the SP500 break the trend line from chart 1?
Thanks
The horizontal is around 1812
Not to assign too much value to one trend line, but would a close above 1812 change your view on a pull-back this week?
As per the end of my post above – unless volume, breadth and sector rotation turn positive, and money flows back out of safe havens, then I see this rip as a bull trap. We are still in keeping by price and time with the second chance of the 3 analogs.
John,
there are some news about china CB making some changes. Does it change your thoughts.
bill
From what I read, the PBoC is still keeping a tight rein on credit. Recent changes also involved elevating the status of the CB, away from controls by state council. PBoC has traditionally been more hawkish than state council or NDRC.
We got a USA debt ceiling redux. Doubt stocks will rise on this fact next week.
The US just passed the debt ceiling extension. Will this be a game changer?
Sorry, not passed, almost a done deal.
John,
It seems the miners are overbought now and need a breather, just not sure how far they will get pushed up. In addition to your indicators listed, it seems a near term catalyst (known) for a strong reaction would be retail sales. To add another opinion, Armstrong doesn’t think Gold has bottomed. All of your indicators are strongly supportive of reversion, but it always seems with the CBs involved, the magic hands do their work! I’ll be watching this crazy market…
I think Commodities are joining in, and I (hope) am not talking my own book because I am heavily invested in HUI:) We will see….:)
I have been reading the blog for about 3 months and love the work you are doing. I’m just small potatoes I trade my deferred comp account. Left the equities and went 100% in bonds Dec 31 per the Bradley model. I also have been trading the NUGT in an IRA account. Keep up the good work!
Thanks Don
Thanks for your input all
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/scary-1929-market-chart-gains-traction-2014-02-11
By the way I should make the point that the Bradley model graph depicts 1929 is not going to occur again. Think this is all paranoia as what creates the pattern resembling 1929 has significantly changed. That doesn’t mean what John says should be interpreted any differently. I’m just posting that I believe this 1929 stuff to be a bad echo or blip on the RADAR screen.
Over the coming days a buying panic might lead to the extreme enthusiasm for stocks, which the sentiment scales, sentimentrader displays on its free entrance site, didn’t show up to now. Although the “second chance” scenario is still in play, it might turn out, that a few indicators like these scales and the cumulative advance-decline line can’t be dwarfed even by the most sophisticated bearish case.