Here is the progress of current solar cycle 24 overlaid on previous solar cycles of similar amplitude (i.e weak sunspot cycles):
Solar cycle 24 is going to be flat-topped, making SC16 and SC14 most similar in progression pattern.
Weaker solar cycles such as these generally produce less geomagnetism (geomagnetism being negative for risk markets), whilst flat-topped elongated peaks could produce a sustained period of sunspot-driven speculation (assuming sustained biological impact on humans). On the flip side, we might presume weaker solar cycles produce less human excitement/speculation overall, although markets history does not suggest so (correlating market manias with solar cycle peaks of differing amplitude).
So, a bit of weekend speculation on my part, but here are solar cycles 14&16:
The source is Solen.info again and I have added the market peaks.
Solar cycle 22, whilst of bigger amplitude, also had a flat top from 1989-1991, and we saw Japanese stocks peak out in 1989 then Japanese real estate in 1991. Solar cycle 20 was also flat-topped from 1967 to 1970 and we saw various markets peak out in turn in this window (as per my recent Solar Parabolics chart). The Dow’s big bull market into 1929 largely ran from the beginning to the end of the flat solar top. Therefore, I am wondering whether there is something in a flat-topped cycle producing a ‘period’ of human excitement and speculation.
Our current solar cycle, 24, is likely going to look flat-topped from 2011 to 2014 in retrospect. Commodities (by CCI index) peaked in 2011? Equities to peak as we turn into 2014? Both with bumper gains from the lows to the peaks.
I previously focused on the correlation between smoothed solar maximum date and market peak dates, and occasionally there was a notable gap, but this is resolved if the ‘range’ of the solar maximum is considered, rather than just the smoothed peak. There’s also logical appeal of sustained human excitement whilst peak sunspots are sustained. Again, just speculation on my part, but we can expect solar cycle 24’s flat top to end by mid-2014, and I therefore suggest we could see one of two possibities playing out. One, equities peak out within the next 6 months, commodities don’t come again, and we thereafter enter the typical post-solar-peak recession (deflationary). Or, two, equities are peaking now and commodities are breaking upwards out of their large consoliation triangles since 2011 to produce a typical late-cyclical final rally and help tip the weak economy into that recession.