Latest

I’m on holidays, so just some updated data below.

Sunspots still high, adding weight to possibility of solar max still ahead – modelled versus SP500 here:

29oct20131

Geomagnetism forecast extended for next 3 weeks, overall still flat – modelled versus commodities index here:

29oct20132

FOMC output tomorrow, new moon on Friday, lunar negative period begins the start of next week.

Economic surprises falling in US and Europe, improving but negative in Japan, and positive in China:

29oct2013329oct20134

29oct20135 29oct20136Leading indicators for the US falling:

29oct20137 29oct20138

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17 thoughts on “Latest

  1. For my Us is close to a new recession, the 3rd in current 17-years cycle, but US Indices are in the historical tops and everyone saying we are in a new bull market.

    Different to 2008 juncture?

  2. Maybe US has been in a recession since 2008, can I trust all those numbers? If we measure unemployment and inflation the way it was measured in the seventies…and so on. But the question is : does the market decline in a recession? Or just declining market causes a recession? Has the market to decline in a recession : like in 1935-40s?
    Is this a stock boom, or just the public is scared of stocks and about to join after another few years run? The public is sitting on scared money and mortgage/house today.

  3. We are in a 17-years-cycle, that matches with 1906-23 period and 1966-83 one. We could see prior periods in XIX century with Dow Jones & UK indices prospections, and similarities are incredibles.

    I explained here this cycle 00-17 is altered and distorted, never before in a 17-y-c, in hugh sideways, up and dow, 2-3 years up, 100-120%, but neves 4-5 years, more than 150%.

    At this point, we are in a upward wedge like 1909-16-19 (Dow Jones) or in al altered view of the Dow Jones 1975-83, transferred to S&P 1980-82.

    The 1st case, we will see a plunge about 0,618-0,76,> -40%/-50% fib. retr or 2nd case target 200MMA, about -30%

    @apanalis

    1. Hi Antonio, you may well be right. I am not into cycles and cannot argue. But I know for sure that the world and the market evolve in time and cycles may at some point become just past data. We quit the gold standard. Markets became global. Corporations went global. FED actively supports the market since the 80′. Forex was born. Personally I wouldn’t bet on number 17, although I may be well wrong.
      But what if not? I will be fine. What about you, do you have an exit plan in case you’re not right? You may remember Tiho, guy ‘stuck on the short side of long’. I told him in January 2013 to admit mistake and cover. Today is November 2013, Tiho is still short the market. He probably read too many books about Soros, Drukenmiller and rules that no longer apply, especially not for those who cannot move the markets. The point is he still believes in his scenario, and he has no choice : to admit mistake now would mean he doesn’t know how to make money, a terrible feeling, isn’t it?

  4. Of course, but as I expleined here before, nothing is perfect, least now, but my way to work in the markets is management money in the mid-long term-run and test is some levels you find correct, with some covereges and some amount of money, prudent and slowly, because never you have the authority, the power-control of the market.

    The way to act in this wild-perfect world is to be strict in the long trem analysis, with the cycles, but open minded at the same time.

    Until now, secular markets did roughly the same, within 17-years-cycle. This time, the Federal Reserve has altered the cycle, but the structure is similar to the S&P 1966-83 referred to the Dow Jones.

    I work basically in the US indices, commodities, Eurusd and some other indices like DAX, Eurostoxx, Ibex and some other equities.

    Regards, despe

    @apanalis

  5. When you entered the market it is up to the market to decide not the reasons you used for entering the market. It does not matter if you used a super computer or whatever… The market does not care what you think. Just embrace it. :).

    Random processes produce many sequences that convice people that the process is not random after all. The widespread misunderstanding of randomness sometime has significant consequences.

    “Price is never too high to buy or too low to sell.” Jesse Livermore

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