Both sunspot and geomagnetism cycles correlate with long term global temperature variation, with geomagnetism having the closest correlation co-efficient:
Changes in global temperature have been demonstrated to influence fertility and birth rates. A composite of 19 countries below shows the inverse relationship between temperature and birth rate over the last century:
Sunspot and geomagnetism cycles therefore affect demographics through global temperature variation.
There is also a global temperature oscillation related to solar cycling, shown below. Therefore we have two solar influences on climate: an 11 yearly oscillation and a long term trend following long term changes in solar activity.
Source: C Camp
There is typically a spike in births around solar maxima – an 11-yearly peak – oscillating like the above:
Additionally, birth rates have been shown to vary with the economy, typically declining during recessions and rising during boom times.
Source: Pew Social Trends
There is a pattern to recessions following solar peaks, and therefore births declining following solar peaks. The chart below shows all three for the US, with the solar peaks marked in black. There is generally a spike up in births at the solar peak followed by a pullback or flattening in births aligned with a recession.
The major peaks in births occurred close to the solar maximums of 1917, 1958 and 1989.
Typically there is growthflation in the economy into a solar peak – which should encourage more births – and human excitement peaks with the sun. Perhaps human excitement at the solar peak also translates into more births, in terms of human behaviour effects, as snow shoe hare populations have been shown to peak around solar maximums. Then, following the solar peak recession and unemployment peaks typically occur, which would pull back the birth rate.
In asset markets we also see both an 11-yearly oscillation correlated to solar cycles and additionally a mapping of long term trend. This is a busy chart, but it attempts to show both the 11 year solar oscillation and the long term solar variance trend against risk assets, demographics and temperature – click to view larger:
So we have a six-way relationship between sunspots, geomagnetism, climate, demographics, the economy and the financial markets. The sun is the agent, and temperature and human behaviour (which translates into economic, risk asset and birth rate effects) are the subjects. There are two patterns: an 11-yearly oscillation and a long term trend variance. Within this multi-relationship there also appears to be a cause and effect chain from the sun to global temperature to birth rate (which becomes demographics) to long term risk asset performance in stocks and real estate.
If we are moving into a long solar quiet period then global cooling should become the theme and this should have implications for fertility, producing a trend of increasing global births. However, if man-made warming overrides the cycle of cooling then the opposite could occur. Whichever wins out should have implications for the world economy and financial markets later in the century.