1. Twin highs in the SP500 and Nasdaq in 2012 roughly 6 months apart are similar to the mid-year action in 2010, highlighted below. In 2010 when the indices revisited the high, they needed a couple of weeks to consolidate before making a second attempt and successful breakthrough. So let’s see how the current action shapes. Next Friday ‘s Jackson Hole has the potential to be a catalyst for a breakout roughly 2 weeks later (if QE intentions announced) – or of course a disappointment.
2. Below I show how Conference Board leading indicators have developed in recent weeks. Japan and Korea are bad, sticking below -1. Euro are as a whole has remained at -0.3, but within that Spain picking up and Germany dropping. Australia has improved, US and China have oscillated, but the latest table has doubled its ‘greens’ to 4. It’s still a more negative picture than positive, but the key is whether a positive global trend can emerge.
Source: Conference Board
3. The gold price in Euros has popped over its multi-month declining resistance.