Sunspots and the smoothed solar maximum appear to have peaked around March 2014.
Margin debt, Russell 2000, social media and various breadth measures look to have peaked around then, in a speculation peak epicentre, and all major global stock indices have tentatively topped out within 6 months of that.
In line with previous solar maxima we are seeing a particularly hot year globally, with 2014 so far the joint hottest on record globally for land and ocean combined.
Agricultural commodities may have a burst ahead of them.
Equities have run away from the cumulative geomagnetic trend in keeping with a speculation mania over the last 18 months, whilst broad commodities continue to track the model.
The geomagnetic trend just lately steepened downwards, in keeping with the seasonal geomagnetic peak time of year.
This post-solar-maximum, geomagnetic pressure period is likely to drag equities down and maintain the peaks between March and September in the major global indices, implying we are in a new stocks bear market.
I maintain the likelihood of the new moon reversal, i.e. that this week should now see the renewed move lower, making for a lower high in US large caps.
This probability is supported by the picture in Nasdaq breadth, which peaked out around March.
The European indices likely initiated the roll over yesterday.
Whilst the junk bonds rally has possibly petered out the last few sessions.
In summary, I still expect the markets to roll over here, providing the missing lower high in US large caps to go with the lower low (and existing lower highs in other indices). With a doji candle yesterday in US indices, a further doji candle today would provide the roll over set-up similar to 1987 and 1929. The likelihood of the Fed sticking with their QE exit in tomorrow’s FOMC output could then provide the trigger for the falls to initiate. The triple negative of the period into the full moon, the geomagnetic seasonal peak and the post-solar-maximum hangover provide the backdrop for this all to occur. I believe we are already in a bear market in equities but this isn’t going to be clear for a little while.