The Dow Jones Industrials stock index so far continues to honour both the May 13 DeMark price exhaustion high and the December 31 inflation-adjusted high, set against a backdrop of deteriorating breadth (top and bottom indicators):
The relevance of the last-trading-day-of-the-calendar-year high is shown in the next two charts:
Just the Dow-Gold ratio is a little in danger now, which adds to the scenario: if the Dow stumbles again here, that 31 Dec peak will likely be maintained.
Time is ticking on US large caps, as various divergences are now mature, and so I have my doubts that a summer rally can be mustered here:
In short, the Dow is within easy reach of taking out both the 31 Dec real high and the 13 May nominal high to invalidate the above, and yet those risk-on cross-asset peaks of 31 Dec have not been taken out some five months later. So are we seeing the last gasp of a topping process, or consolidation before an overthrow leg higher? The answer lies right ahead.