I recently gathered 40 indicators showing why the stock market is a major shorting opportunity, and now we have increased evidence as to why the speculation peak may be behind us, with the solar peak likely Dec 2013 – Feb 2014, and margin debt thus far having topped out in February.
The Bitcoin speculative peak was December. The real Dow and real Nikkei peaks were thus far 31 December 2013, joining the club of historic peaks falling at the inverted seasonal geomagnetic peak (second and third charts):
Also, the 31 Dec peak was 1 day from the new moon, which fits the pattern of historic peaks typically occurring at the peak optimism of the new moon. The Russell 2000, Nasdaq and Biotech peaks also look to have fallen at the new moon of March 1st:
The SP500 has flat-topped between December and May. Chances are slim that this is consolidation before further upside due to the congregation of indicators at historic extremes and the likely waning from here of the solar maximum. Recall: super peaks need a solar maximum, a leverage peak (same buyers more debt) and a demographic tailwind (new buyers). The latter is absent and the leverage is at all-time extreme already.
The solar maximum generates maximum human excitement, so as well as speculation peaking in the markets, we typically see growthflation in the economy into the solar peak. I therefore expect markets and economy to decline as one from here.
A historic opportunity: