I could have put a question mark at the end of the title but figured that’s a bit wet. I have a case, so here it is. Now let the market shame me, preferably as early as you are reading this.
1. Last-trading-day-of-the-year applies to the major real peaks on the Dow, FTSE and Nikkei.
2. Solar maximum alignment (sunspot maxima – human excitement peaks – speculative parabolic peaks): based on Solen’s forecast this is likely to have been December 2013, with associated monthly spike in sunspots (implications on second chart beneath):
What’s missing in terms of topping signals? We have some breadth divergence (e.g. stocks above 200MA) but not sufficient for a typical top (e.g. cumulative advance-declines, congregation of stocks making New Lows). We do not see cyclicals flagging whilst defensives take over in a meaningful way, as is typical of tops. The 31 Dec high was a momentum high and normally we would see at least a second attempt at the high on divergence.
If the market hasn’t topped yet, then the table of flags and warnings suggests a peak within 3 months is likely, as do the parabolics on the US indices: