Drawing together the historic seasonality of geomagnetism, the window of growth into mid year before headwinds in H2 as per leading indicators, the cyclical bull’s behaviour to date in fib and channel tagging, the expectation by solar cycles of stocks topping out ahead of the solar peak and noting the S&P500’s current battle with 2011’s top (but expecting it will eventually break upwards, as the Nasdaq has led the way already):
As per the title, don’t take it too seriously. But it does appear the S&P500 has a destination of the merging of the 100 fib and top channel line, and this is in line with Zealllc’s expectation of roughly where this cyclical bull will top out.
12 thoughts on “Idle Speculation – Sp500”
my vision is very similar low jun’12-july’12 and top in dec´12
Based on similar reasons, Hagen, or any other factors? Ta.
Based in oil, inflation, interest rate, spread future VIX…. and Monetary flows
I’ve tried, but I just can’t resist the opportunity to get in a mention of the good ol’ Bradley Turns! – two major turns at 12 June and 28 July, roughly in line with your projected top…
16 Mar and 22 Dec making for the other two main turns by Bradley, which would also fit rather well.
Also the rally out of mid-2010’s correction lasted about 6 months, with a pause half way up. This rally out of 2011’s correction, began about mid-Dec, which could take us up to the top by about mid-June, with an imminent pause en route.
Thank you Mark, can you tell to me where I can get more info about bradley turns?
You can check the actual dates and more information here:
The dates are calculated by a very complicated procedure (so I’m told), based on planetary movements and alignments. The theory is that a significant rebalancing of the planets’ positions will affect the activity of the sun, and therefore the amount of geomagnetism that reaches us on Earth. Most people think of this stuff as Hocus Pocus, but others like John Hampson take a more scientific approach and are able to consistently use it (along with other more mainstream criteria) to help them make profits from the financial markets. The results speak for themselves!
The Bradley Turns do not tell you which direction a market will take, but I have found them to be a reliable indicator of when a CHANGE in direction is due.
Amanita Market Forecasting provides the Bradley Model each year. http://www.amanita.at/FAQ/FragenzumBradley-Siderograph/Bradley-Siderograph/
It is great some years, perfectly inverted some years and out to lunch some years. Also I think last year was really bad but some say it was good. It can really mess you up making scenarios to fit it.
My vision you know very well, highs DOW and SP500 around these days or april as much and after a decline about less than a year -0,618 or more from march09 to nowdays.
Let´s take a look to Russell2000 or Transportation, for example or emerging markets.
You can see the path of Bovespa2010 for de Industrials.
This is not a common cycle. The solar pick is similar to 1979-80.
From St. Sebastian, north Spain.
Sorry because i disagree and thanks for your vision.
Could be this link? http://forbestadvice.com/Money/Gurus/DonaldBradley/BradleyTurnDates.html??
I can´t anything about Bradley
hmm so now would be a great time to short the markets, no?