New highs in US equities despite…
1. Valuations on a par with the 1929 peak
2. Sentiment extreme lopsided (II 3.5x bulls vs bears, NAAIM 84% bulls)
3. Allocations to equities on a par with 2000 peak (household, fund manager, Rydex)
4. The solar maximum speculation peak being behind us in April 2014
5. Leverage having peaked out around then (margin debt Feb 2014, leveraged loans July 2014)
6. Multiple negative divergences in place 6-12 months (shift to defensives, breadth, financial conditions)
7. Economic surprises negative
8. Leading indicators negative
9. Earnings growth forecasts for H1 2015 negative
10. Buybacks peaked in Q1 2014
This is already so anomalous that I can’t offer much more by way of analysis. If there is a blow-off top about to unfold, then what is the fuel, given the extremes in allocations and sentiment and the stall in leverage and buybacks, plus the demographic headwind making for a shrinking investor pool? I believe it would have to come from leverage breaking its 12m ceiling and going to all-new extremes. But why would that occur, given the state of economic and earnings indicators versus valuations? And given we are approaching 12 months post solar maximum? It makes no sense.
I can still only side with logic, which says the real peak was mid-2014 and that this still represents last gasps of a topping process. That would mean nominal stock indices make marginal new highs here but then break down.
On the bullish side, there have been a couple of supportive developments. Cumulative advance-declines have broken upwards decisively, as they did in February 2014. Plus, cyclical sectors have taken over outperformance from defensive sectors now in 2015. These two developments alone certainly don’t overcome the list above, but, if stocks can now hold up whilst we go through the seasonal lows of March and April then we could perhaps again see economic surprises and earnings start to turn up again. In short, we could continue to see the market advancing in positive economic and earnings periods but not falling in negative periods despite the record lopsidedness, negative divergences and so on. Go figure.
That would in turn likely postpone the bear kick-off until the Autumn/Fall. I can’t compute that, but we have to consider the majorly anomalous here. Of course this can’t continue indefinitely. If stocks do somehow take off again here, then valuations, leverage, allocations and divergences will become yet more extreme, perhaps all-time extreme, making the subsequent crash even bigger and even more pressing.
But survival is key. So I have stepped aside and taken off my positions whilst we see how price action now unfolds. If we see a blow-off mania now somehow take hold, then I don’t want to hold short through that. If, instead, logic reigns, then stocks should only make marginal highs here on negative divergences and then be dragged down to new 2015 lows. We have the new moon on the 18th Feb into which I expect stocks to rise. Then we have the seasonally weak window into March and April. So either stocks make marginal new highs and then fall post 18 Feb into Mar/Apr to new 2015 lows, or they hold up and lift off through those seasonal lows heading for even higher highs in the summer. I will be looking to add back positions on evidence of the former unfolding.
Cross-market, gold’s behaviour will be another tell. If the bottom is in then gold should start to take off again here, making for a compelling higher low. Continued weakness and even a new low would postpone the whole process.
I still can’t regret my analysis, because it is as comprehensive and multi-angled as I could make it, and I still think the only logical outcome is that we do indeed look back on a topping process that kicked off at the start of 2014 but took a long time to play out. I can’t compute anything else, because I bring together such a wide range of angles and draw heavily on ‘fact’. However, it’s been a humbling 12 months and there is not yet sufficient clarity or hindsight to really diagnose it.
I host the website but you guys have created an excellent board, which is always a great read. Different opinions and approaches but there is a good balance and a lot of quality input. So thank you to all who comment.
So, let’s see now whether stocks break out decisively or fail at marginal new highs, whilst watching how gold performs.
S O L A R C Y C L E S 
I am sure you have noted the DJUA 10.2% loss in the last thirteen trading days and TLT 7.3% loss in the last ten trading days (plus closing the week below its fifty day moving average).
I must sound like a broken record; but I keep saying it; there are multiple forces at work at any given time. So here is what I think has happened:
1) Long term solar activity peak mid 2014
2) But gravity still down (is markets up) into December; orthodox high dec 7th
3) Then the shorter term interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) kept pushing through into the earth-Jupiter conjunction on feb 6.
4) Then a short term gravity cycle pushed that into feb 11.
5) And finally an inversion gave the last push from Wednesday into Sunday 15.
It’s like peeling an onion. The market is flying on fumes and dragging itself into this weekend. Why? There must be something special about this weekend that acts like an attractor.
I have a few options:
1) the harmonic cycle that points to feb 15
2) the heliocentric mars-uranus conjunction (feb 14)
3) the long weekend (monday presidents day/ws closed)
Declines always start after a long weekend and the biggest declines always occur between last quarter and new moon and first quarter to full moon. We are now heading for a supermoon and Yesterday we entered the shock window that will run into feb 21.
Declining volume the last weeks is evidence of a final leg up.
Tomorrow I’ll do a post on harmonic timing and one on the IMF.
For now : every force I am aware of is down and the market is stumbling into the weekend like a drunkard looking for his bed.
Tomorrow some more reasons why I think next week we start a decline into the expiration on Friday as a first stop. March 5 a more firm low.
Cheers,
André
Danny at Lunatic Trader has some interesting work on Chinese month stems and market performance in his archives section. Feb Mar are earth month stems which give a mellow quality to trading and given the place we are in the pres election cycle, the capital flows into US, etc. has resulted in rising markets, imo.. Apr May are metal month stems. Danny characterized metal month stems as bad for stocks (stocks are paper, metal cuts paper). Thanks, Andre’ for pushing the envelope with your new IMF model. Look forward to reading your post tomorrow.
André, not a bad post mate. Enjoyable
R/Mat
Thanks!
Here is my take:
The investment world is global so the demographic headwind does not exist. The young investor in Africa does not put his money in the Nairobi stock exchange, but the US. This has created capital flows to the US.
The EU confiscated money in Cyprus. This means money has to leave Europe. Interest rates are zero everywhere, so it goes to the US stock market. Pakistan said that any money that went into the stock market would become legitimate back in 2012. This pushed the Pakistan market higher, now that money is legal money and that money is flowing to the US markets as a safe haven. Putin had been attacking oligarchs in Russia and Central Asia, now this money is flowing to the US. Money is fleeing the mid-east due to ISIS and the oil crash. This money is going to the US.
This will drive the US markets substantially higher. All the indicators may skew to one side but for the time being there is no where to go than US stocks. People feel safer hiding money in an overvalued Google or Apple than in their own nations.
The type of analysis needed now is capital flow analysis. The reason for the rising dollar AND gold together is that money is fleeing the rest of the world and dollars are needed to be put in the US market and dollars are needed to buy gold.
I have stated this before to many. I suspect the DOW goes to 25,000-30,000 before and then the bears will capitulate and the metrics will be so skewed and at that time capital flows will reverse.
It is a strange world.
Solari Report characterizes this movement of capital into US as a temporary phenomenon that will subside when BRICs have developed their modern monetary exchange system which needs more time. Once complete there may be competition to the US for capital. Time frame is unclear, yet most likely waiting to be unveiled for a time when most benefit can be accrued by a rapid transfer of capital into the new system. Solari also says equity model to replace debt model in next century meaning countries and wealthy interests will focus more on equities on store of wealth and less on debt.
According to McHugh and the wave counts that he is following, he believes we are in a blow off top and that there will be a turn in April around the time of the Bradley turn.
Armstrong sees a global shift going from government bonds to stocks as countries debts mount and currencies become volatile therefore losing their credibility, with the turning point around Oct. 2015. So he explains it as a shift from government to private or corporate paper.
This might be happening in a scenario where the markets go down and the CBs do more QE in desperation, resulting in a collapse of confidence in governments, enabling the last bubble into stocks. And from here on, it will not be pretty. Just my guess on this scenario.
With everyone fully invested (long) … It seems as though the ‘fuel’ for the entire market’s rise from October 2014 to date, has been ‘shorts’ covering.
When shorts stay short the fuel will be removed.
funstein
I agree that the DOW will ofc go to 25-30k – but what’s your timeframe?
J
Do you Know about Martin Armstongs cyclical approach ? Here we go : http://armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blog/. Big bang ahead by 2015.75. Best regards ,Philipp .
Can we please make this blog a Martin Armstrong free zone?!!
Everyone knows who MA is and if you don’t by now you must be living under a rock! He is the most talked about analyst on the interweb and further has been wrong right along side many others on more than several occasions in the past but seems to promote the image and the belief that he is consistently right.
sounds more like Larry Tomlinson LOL 🙂
That was predicted back in the late 90s when Armstrong was losing money hand over fist with his horrible calls… he probably ripped off the guys that were discussing it back then for all the right reasons just like he ripped of Benner’s cycle posting it on his PEI website, discussing its merits and then whoosh… disappeared along with all his discussion. Next thing we knew, he discovered his 86.5 year cycle back in the 70s and was keeping it a big secret. This convict was Bernie Madoff’s hero…
Thank you, John, for your update. I only found this website a few weeks ago but your analysis is thought provoking and very much appreciated. Thank you, also, to the many contributors, who add much food for thought.
All I can add is that the diags on several (UK) company charts are pointing to lows around March 10th, give or take a few days. This also ties in with my gut feeling that we are on the precipice of a sizeable correction. Having said that, I am currently approx 50/50 equities/cash. If equities spike I will take more off the table but if I’m right about the lows circa March 10th then I’ll take that as a buying opportunity.
Good luck to one and all.
John Hampson,
Thank you for creating this site. I am glad you chose to comment about the interactions here. I was a bit concerned that you might grow tired of some of the petty bantering that sometimes misses the big picture about sharing ideas. But based on your comment…..
“I host the website but you guys have created an excellent board, which is always a great read. Different opinions and approaches but there is a good balance and a lot of quality input. So thank you to all who comment.”
…..I think we’re in good shape.
watching this bubble build and perhaps eventually seeing it burst is truly amazing
i just hope the after effects don’t go to deeply
Thanks Specie
Johns analysis is angled and correct. Its the timing of this coming crash that has been frustrating. Solar cycles, moon phases are helpful market directional tools. Has anyone mentioned the the Four Blood Moons and Jewish/calender feast days cycle. This is a Shmita year and how History makes substantial adjustments on ending Shmita years. Be careful taking a glance at this might make one rearrange their priorities/affections.
According to one model, this year should have a major sell off due to the 7 year cycle which would be given added power by solar waning. 2008 plus 7 years is 2015.
If earnings momentum begins to build again then
this bull market does not end in 2015.
Specie, this is just a bull cycle as per countless bull
markets that proceeded this and ultimately the bear
markets that follow.
There is nothing really new here.
I do not buy a sharp decline here, following yesterday
we are now heading significantly higher imv.
My favoured scenario remains a late Summer early
Autumn final top, however that is dependant on peak
earnings in the US business cycle.
Looking at the weekly chart of GDX two things stand out.
1) There was a bullish set up in July last year that was all but perfect for an upside explosion and the look what happened……coicidence?
2) GDX is currently Setting up again in similar fashion albeit from a lower level. Will it get smashed again or does it break higher this time?
I suspect that “they” won’t have it so easy this time around
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p08205637616
I can tell you that right NOW the smart money is accumulating gold stocks. The man whose name I shall not speak is scaring the crap out of institutional investors about gold so that they won’t even go near gold stocks.
This right at the time when they should be buying!…………so how smart is he?
The economist formerly known as Martin Armstrong. Reminds me of Prince’s decision a few years ago to be known by his “power symbol” instead of an actual name. Maybe Martin Armstrong could be known by an emoticon of some kind.
Allan, have you seen this?
http://moneyweek.com/gold-price-macd-buy-signal/
Hard to envisage gold falling further in my view.
But we will see.
Allan, the setup for a potential upside breakout in GDX definitely exists. Two things that I have been tracking.
1. Looking at weekly charts there is a symmetrical reversal pattern using first week of December as starting point. In other words, the price action since then has retraced what occurred prior to that date in reverse. It fell from an Aug 2014 top to Dec 2014 and so far it has risen from Dec 2014 low to a consolidation flag up to mid-Feb 2015 (equivalent to late Sep 2014 consolidation). If it continues to track then a $27 target is conceivable by the end of March.
2. If an upside breakout is to occur then ideally it does so by the end of this coming week, but probably has to do so by end of Feb latest otherwise it deviates from the symmetry. $20 level needs to hold.
Safe play is to simply wait and buy it if it exceeds $22 and just give up a potential $1 better entry point rather than buy prematurely and get burned if the bullish case fails to materialize.
Interesting site and analysis, John.
There is a potential breakout underway for an inverse H&S projecting to the SPX mid-2100s. If so, this would be part of the next order of log-periodic, super-exponential acceleration to the mid-2300s by spring-summer or early fall.
The current move could also be an EW irregular/expanded corrective flat and a major double top.
There are several Tom DeMark (TD) daily sell signals that qualified this week for the major indices with support/stops 6-7% to 10% lower.
More importantly, the SPX is exhibiting the rarest of coincident conditions one will ever see:
Record non-financial corporate and margin debt to GDP.
Log-periodic blow-off having occurred since 2012.
Hindenburg Omen.
Daily, weekly, and monthly TD sell signals.
10-year average P/E at 20 or higher.
Coppock Curve “Killer Wave”.
Only two previous times in stock market history going back to the 1920s have these conditions simultaneously occurred: 1929 and 2007.
Save for the debt levels, the conditions also occurred at the tops in 1987 and 2000.
Therefore, current conditions have occurred coincident with the tops of 4 of 5 (excepting 1973, which occurred without a blow-off and record debt) of the largest bear markets in US history.
Now a very important caveat. I have been involved in financial and economics research, securities analysis, risk analysis and management, and trading and hedging for 25 years. I have personal knowledge of the following: With little or no regulatory oversight or supervision, the largest US and European (TBTF/TBTE banks) primary dealer institutions have increasingly since 2009-10 been “managing” equity index futures offshore via their shadow banking dark pools’ pass-through entities utilizing NYSE-Euronext-sponsored high-frequency trading (HFT) systems and algorithm robots (algobots).
With few exceptions, these institutions successfully (so far) “manage” major index futures at the margin by using HFT and simply unbelievable amount of leverage, i.e., 50-80:1, “unilaterally netting” counterparty positions (among the largest 4-5 institutions) with effectively no-cost liquidity, assisted by the Fed’s ZIRP. The objective is to maintain a perpetual bull market with the 200 DMA rising steadily.
HFT uses conventional technical analysis (TA), EW, TD, and numerous, ever-evolving proprietary self-referential (“reflexive”) methods that operate in the dark at the speed of light 24/5. Approximately 65-80% (eventually virtually all as part of a kind of algobot singularity) of trading activity on any given day is directly or indirectly influenced or determined by HFT algobots, especially overnight for futures before the open on Wall St.
Now, before one or more readers comments that this is implausible and smacks of tinfoil-hat nutterism and “conspiracy thinking”, consider what would happen were the activities to be fully revealed. How many participants or those with assets at risk would object to the activities were they to presume to benefit from the process? Who would object to a permanent bull market rising 10-13%/year with no-cost liquidity levered to infinity?
Also consider that the amount of levered netted positions existing today to bank capital and GDP far exceeds that of 2007-08, so much so that as little as a 10% decline for the SPX that persists indefinitely risks a catastrophic deleveraging of the system and potential wipeout of the global banking and financial systems virtually overnight.
Therefore, the aforementioned simultaneously occurring conditions and implied risk of a large bear market are precisely why the central banks and their largest primary dealer institutional owneers and shadow banking entities are “managing” the stock market, as well as why they cannot permit a bear market to occur. A bear market this time risks the de facto, if not actual, hyper-volatility, illiquidity collapse of the global financial system into a debt-deflationary catastrophe of unprecedented scale.
A primary inference here is that conventional metrics, such as earnings, cash flow, dividend discount, valuations, and macroeconomic fundamentals are virtually meaningless today with respect to the stock market. What matters is the largely HFT-determined technical structure for the SPX, which uses primary price attractors for supports and to blow out stops above the market to run shorts and foil emerging bearish patterns.
Thus, one must learn to “think” and act like a HFT algobot to be successful trading the markets hereafter.
Cheers.
Really complete picture of trading environment. With such a lock on price movements, couldn’t an ordered and systematic downward movement in price be accomplished just as easily as upward? I see, if the leverage bets to the upside are only able to maintain a modest upward pressure on price given the lack of corporate earnings support for price, if the leverage bets were removed or placed to the downside the market would be a fraction of its current level.
They could, but I think the reason they won’t let it go down “too” far is the fear of quite literally, “blowing-up the world” financially….
And imagining the chaos that would ensue, heads would be on petards….
If that was MY head I was thinking about, I think I’d pull out all the stops too… 😉
That said, yes, I think the Fed is talking about raising interest rates is to do just that… Take some “air” out of the market……before they reflate it again even more… Almost like they’re trying to cause a market sell-off on purpose…. 😉
Honestly, I thought it would have happened by now, but……here we are… :-O
Regardless, GOOD discussion!! Thanks!!
Without the leveraged “management” of equity index futures, the SPX would be in the 900s-1100s (perhaps much lower in the interim because of the implied wipeout in the corporate debt market). That’s an equivalent of $11-$13 trillion in additional digital debt-money-based corporate equity wealth (primarily of the Fortune 10-25 to 100 firms, owing to market cap) and TBTE banks’ collateral that otherwise would not have existed without ZIRP, no-cost leverage, and futures “managing”.
But keep in mind that the implied equity “wealth” is now so large as a share of wages and GDP that the imputed current and future rentier claim to wages, profits, and gov’t receipts is prohibitive, precluding growth of real GDP per capita hereafter.
IOW, the total annual net flows to the US financial sector now equal, and periodically exceed, total annual GDP growth. The more central banks print bank reserves as a share of wages and GDP, and the larger the financial market bubbles become as a share of GDP, the larger the net rentier claim to wages, profits, and gov’t receipts in perpetuity.
Historically, financial bubbles have been negative phenomena for economic growth.
BC, the big guys have already been caught manipulating FOREX, LIBOR, Commodities esp oil and basic metals like aluminum as well as copper. Of course the CB’s do it to interest rates. So it would be naive to think the stk mkt is not manipulated.. the commodities, particularly oil, has broken against them. It eventually takes so much money and leverage to keep it going almost anything can break it. Oil is a good example. The normal max position for large speculators was 100,000 net long. They got it to 500, 000 before this crash. Ultimately they have to sell, and there was just no more buyers left, relatively. A hint of the weakness in oil was such firepower did not even get it close to the old highs.
Fascinating stuff, BC… And I have no doubts at all about what you’re saying…
I’ve always looked at it another way, but the result is the same….
Such severe consequences (to confidence, to pensions, to insurance, to real estate, etc.) would occur if the market ever got “away from them” to the downside, that pretty much ANYTHING will be done to support this market…
I’d like to think we can ~still~ get 5-10-15% corrections from time to time, but it’s easy to see that 1-2-3 week rallies of 5% or more are becoming more common-place…
Regardless, please comment on what you see, anytime….
It’s appreciated…
Collapse is inevitable eventually. A continual expansion of leverage is and of itself eventually self destructing.
Many thanks BC. What you say has a lot of appeal as it neatly explains the puzzle.
Thanks, John. My pleasure.
If you accept BC’s assertion that “Without the leveraged “management” of equity index futures, the SPX would be in the 900s-1100s…”, then you have to reject your notion that “Allocations to equities on a par with 2000 peak (household, fund manager, Rydex)”.
If the so-called “dumb money” peak allocation of 2000 helped push SP500 up to 1500, then a real value today of around 1000 shows you just how much retail money is still uninvested.
If the current underlying real value of SP500 is 1000, and it were to increase by a further 50% to match the 2000 peak, then that would increase the current nominal value from 2100 to 3150 – close to where I think the natural high ought to be.
Just as 666-996-1201-1366-1531-1736-2065 was to the cyclical bull from March 2009; then 455-1110-1515-1840-2166-2571-3225 is to the exaggerated computer-driven market from January 1995.
Mark, please may I ask, why you believe that the SP500 real value should need to increase to match the 2000 peak?
The bust of 2007-8 meant that the 2000 peak was ‘the’ peak in real value. We have since not corrected enough to expect another peak.
I would agree that it is not a prerequisite that SP500 must necessarily match or exceed the 2000 peak (I did say “If…it were to…”). But I do have my estimate that it has a 80-90% chance of going manic from around now – that is not based on a comparison with 2000, but on things like these:
– relative timing of previous weak solar cycles
– oil’s 10-year lead
– an increasingly widespread befief that technological progress will accelerate
– threat of confiscation from bank accounts
– people battling against those they elected to represent them
– consequent loss of faith in governments’ fiat paper
– that wierd 7 year/ 7% Dow crash cycle
– lunar declination (including Gann’s timetable, and the tetrad)
– presidential cycle
– 5th year of the decadal cycle
– Fibonacci ratios in US stock prices since March 2009 and January 1995
– widespread bearishness among those who are involved with the markets
– effectively zero interest from the public (so far) in stock markets
This is not an exhaustive list, but I can never remember them all in one go.
BC I have a question please:
I understand that the Big 4/5 are ‘managing’ the indices at the margin to keep them levitated. Do you have a sense of the size of direct equity holdings NOT under their control? I’m trying to ascertain how much direct equity selling by ‘other’ holders would have to take place before their ability to manage at the margin is overwhelmed.
Thx in advance.
this has worked a treat the last 2 times it hit 100 to sell and 0 to buy
http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
Hi all,
2/18 high (peak) decline into 2/26 low,3/2 high and sharp decline into 3/10
Let see guys..
I appreciate your thoughts on specific dates, which is hard to do. Could you give a little insight on what those dates are based on. It would make for a more interesting post thanks,
SC
If you have long positions, hold until price is no longer supported by the internal breadth indicators. e.g. $NYADV weaken to below 800 and $NYHLR below a ratio of 1.25, along with negative divergence in $NYAD (cum,.) and $SPXA50R. I am giving away some of my trade secrets here for free. Lol.
Is you are already short, Mr. Partridge would probably say “Good Luck!” since the trend (the force) is not with you.
Is you are waiting to short, be patient and just wait for the market to weaken. You will be rewarded.
If you think the market will crash now or crash very soon, do you really have a crystal ball?
No need to predict(wrong often). Just react.
single best trade secret.. tram lines
I have been saying since September that a blow off top is coming….but john and most of u stubbornly stuck to your bearish view!
Well, we are in the process now!!
Thanks again John.
Andre – Here’s a simply new moon cycle chart. Usually buying in the middle of the new moons will give you a profit at the new moon. Simple.
BC,
What is the endgame or purpose behind this activity if what you say is correct?
It seems to me like racing drivers competing to be first off the cliff to their deaths? What is the point?
J
I’m sure BC has a better explanation and outlook, but:
Extend and pretend??
Kick the can down the road??
Let it implode on the next guy, but not on my watch??
And I think EVERYONE would agree this all falls apart at some point, but ~when~ it all goes off the cliff is the question….
First to the exit wins when somebody finally shouts FIRE!
Good question. We are in an era of “secular stagnation”, which is akin to Japan since 1998 and the US and UK in the 1930s-40s, 1890s, and 1830s-40s. However, this time around we have central banks printing “whatever it takes” and Keynesian deficit spending to avoid, postpone, prevent (???) the implied debt-deflationary clearing of the decks, without which we are stuck at a cyclical trend rate of ~1% for real GDP per capita and next to 0% since 2007-08 (again, similar to Japan).
Therefore, the objective is to avoid AT ALL COSTS debt deflation that historically turns to price deflation and contraction of the money supply and nominal GDP (as we experienced briefly in 2009-10).
This is a once-in-history experiment by the central bankers and their private bank owners, and a desperate one at that. There is simply too much private household and business debt to wages and GDP, and now the public debt is soaring as a consequence of the private debt service burden slowing growth of real, after-tax wages and profits.
We have reached the point of diminishing returns of growth of debt to wages and GDP. Now wages (returns to labor’s share of GDP) must accelerate faster than debt, GDP, and returns to capital (especially financial capital). But without the clearing of the decks of private debt, the process will be imperceptibly and painfully slow with perpetual risk of the economy periodically decelerating from slow to no growth and the central banks panicking yet again and printing trillions more to print banks’ book entry profits and to fund gov’ts to run deficits to avoid contraction of nominal GDP.
According to Dimitri Speck @ http://www.seasonalcharts.com:
40% of 4 years presidential election cycle US happens from Jan 1 to June 1 of this year. Other 3.5 years account for other 60%. Data based upon 120 years data.
Could explain why market may continue to rise until June 1. Incumbent president does everything possible to stimulate until the election debates and campaigning begin during the summer.
Phil, I don’t consider this just another bull move.
Bull markets start from low valuations.
This is just an engineered extension of an old bull through the magic of money printing.
Or perhaps a cyclical bull in a secular bear.
Either way only fools boast about picking up nickels in front of steam rollers.
Bulls will run out of (worry) walls to climb pretty soon after Russia (last week) and Greece (soon?)….so may be a real topping process is next. Can it be a parabolic instead of marginal gain?
For the market to crash now or very soon, we need a panic to be caused by a surprise/expected event. There are none yet.
John, thanks for the latest post. As you know ive been one reader that has thoroughly enjoyed your analysis but at times been critical of some indicators that ive not fully agrerd with. However, I 100% agree with the above.
I certainly can see why you have stepped aside. New highs risk on indicies and SPX hasreaffrimed the uptrend. The technical bbreakdown will come and when it does I do expect waterfall decline. What goes up fast comes down fast.
I very much hope you contine to post.
Duncan
Cheers
As promised a few words about the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Jan Benestad brought it up; thanks Jan.
The IMF is really a solar magnetic cycle. Scientists have found a 399 day variance (read : cycle) in this magnetic field. The HC earth-jupiter conjunction was exact on feb 6. The next conjunction is 396 day later. To me this proves the earth-jupiter cycle is a short time driver of geomagnetism. And in short; we are heading for an opposition in August, meaning this 6,5 month cycle is down. This fits with John’s remarks about seasonal geomagnetic weakness. And now we know where it comes from.
Time price research posted a graph this week that shows the correlation of IMF with the S&P. And the correlation is high and positive. So high in IMF = high in the market.
Even shorter term cycles exist as the sun is spinning around it’s own axis in 25,4 days. Sunspots are magnetic pools and are unevenly distributed across the sun’s surface. So the side of the sun that faces earth has the most impact on geomagnetism.
Looking at the Time-Price-Research graph, we can see a few things:
1) The imf gave a peak on feb 6; exactly consistent with the earth-jupiter conjunction.
2) The IMF is down into early march.
The real magic happens when we combine geomagnetism with gravity. I have been struggling to explain the inversion as my orthodox high was dec 7. I saw the inversion, but didn’t understand the timing of the inversion. But the IMF makes it all clear. The IMF was simply up into feb 6 and gravity had to make an inversion to keep up with geomagnetism.
What does this mean?
1) Long term solar activity pivot mid 2014 (John H.)
2) Short term IMF up from August into February
3) Long term gravity pivot december 7 2014.
4) short term gravity up from feb 2 into feb 11.
5) ultrashort tidal inversion adds Wednesday untill Sunday (today).
I can’t help it, but what we have is two long term cycles down, two midterm cycles down as of feb 6, and very short cycles up into feb 15 and exhausted now.
My gravity indicator gives an extreme high reading – the highest this year so far) (=bottom in market) on march 5. Imf gives a low march 6. Do you believe in magic? what are the chances for this kind of confluence?
Next post on harmonic timing that shows feb 15 is no coincidence.
Andre: “My gravity indicator gives an extreme high reading – the highest this year so far) (=bottom in market) on march 5. Imf gives a low march 6. Do you believe in magic? what are the chances for this kind of confluence?”
Excellent, that ties in with my chart diagonals pointing to lows on or around 10th March. I am seeing this for several FTSE100 companies.
Thanks for this confirmation.
have you a ticket
Andre
Thanks for this, sounds as complicated as any other way to try to get a sense of where a market maybe heading. After being wrong this week, it will be interesting to see what happens next.
J
Thanks. Faults are a treasure; so much to learn from them.
Harmonic timing (HT)
HT is a Gann technique but very few analysts use it. The key is to start with 2 pivots in the market. But the results are not impressive.
My solunar gravity system gives ‘orthodox’ turns. Read: times when the market should have turned. Real turns always deviate due to noise. Market data are noisy in price and time.
From statistics class we remember that for statistical forecasting we require stationary data. And noise is not stationary. So starting with noisy data is wrong, which explains the first point : nobody uses it.
Anyway, my orthodox turns are different. I had an orthodox high dec 7. The most significant turn before that was the October low. The market low was oct 15, but my orthodox low was 13.
Connecting dec 7 with oct 13 gives a 55 (!;fibo) day difference. Taking the root square from 55 gives 7,42. Adding 1 and re-squaring gives 70,8. Adding 70.8 to dec 7 gives feb 15.
Adding 2 before re-squaring gives 88.7. Adding that to dec 7 gives: march 5.
Adding 5 before re-squaring gives may 10th.
(1,2,5 are all fibo; coincidence?)
I am amazed how this very different technique gives the exact dates that I see in other things. There is no way you can read dec 7 or oct 13 from market data.
So my GI gave February 11. The tidal inversion on 11 pushes the turn to 15, exactly to the harmonic date. 3 different systems fully in sync.
I have some more to post on heliocentric astrology. That will explain why the mars-uranus conjunction on Friday 13 is a major change in trend (and close to the harmonic date!). It will also show that the HC jupiter/saturn square in September is much more important than the geocentric uranus-pluto square that all other astro’s are so full of. And this square will bring volatility. In 1980 we had an HC jupiter/saturn conjunction that triggered the massive mount ST Helen eruption. The Jupiter/Saturn square in 2005 caused the massive 2004 Asian tsunami. This indicates that years around a square are volatile.
This ties in with what I have said before : the long term cycle is up into 2020. But the square will bring volatile years that we will call a w4 consolidation, possibly running into march 2018 (more on that next week).
So the bulls are right; up into 2020. But heading into this square with a total eclipse in March at the same time with the equinox and a moon wobble period promises a very volatile spring, spiking volatility and consistent with an early may W5 low. May 10 is a major Bradley date.
And this is consistent with what I wrote about IMF : down into August. Now heading for the stealth super moon (Richard Nolle). Now already in the shock period. It will bring the low on Friday 20.
I have said too much already. Enjoy the weekend.
p.s. meant to say square root; typo.
p.p.s.s. Fukoshima distaster (also earth quake) march 2011; close to the HC jupiter/Saturn opposition. Tjernobyl april 26 1986; exactly the day of the HC square.
Opposition feb 23 2011,2 weeks before the earthy quake.
Thanks Andre’, didn’t realize J/S squares, opps, and conj’s can be connected to geophysical events/economic events on earth. Will mark Sept. J/S square on my calendar.
“Watch Lehman the rat trading gold futures”…
http://rt.com/news/232427-rats-humans-train-trade/
“…comparable to the world’s best fund managers”.
It just dawned on me why deflation is permanent and why CB intervention is futile. Profits were/are made from keeping information a secret. Now/soon the internet makes everything free. Art, music, literature, education, all information is now free. Soon (20 years) energy itself will be free or at least of negligible cost. Transportation will be free. Food will be free. The economic system is not failing. It is making the hording of money obsolete. Think about why unemployment is good not bad.
And Greece, the original philosophers, are showing us the way again.
The internet of things is a concept where whatever consumer product (and eventually food product) will be downloaded and created in home using 3D modeling and printing. Exciting times!
You’ve been watching too much Star Trek!
(Deflation a factor of globalisation and technology efficiency, and more recently demand at maximum due to debt loads, and over supply).
Live long and prosper.
Forgot to mention the most significant date between march 5t and may 10 is April 8-10; around the end of the moon wobble period (april7) and last quarter (April 12).
This should be the w4 top and the start of the decline into early may.
Andre’,
It’s been awhile since I have posted. Great work on combining Astro, Tidal, Lunar, Harmonics,… There is a lot going on at highs and lows. Let me add 2 cents on the Tidal. The following may reflect some of what you are doing, although the manipulation of the numbers may be slightly different resulting in small tweaks to specific days. I’ve taken to paying particular attention to Tidal movements as measured by (a) the absolute difference from a high tide to low in the course of a day, and (b) the rate of change of those absolute differences. I do not worry so much where the tides are taken (I use Battery Park). As you know the tides go from high to low to high to low over the course of a day. So I will take the absolute value from one high to low, next the absolute value from that low to the next high. This gave a low (gravitational?) measure after the market closed on Thursday 2/12/15 with a 5.82 differential measure. The movement from this level is very slow on Friday and Saturday, but increases in speed (reflecting the increasing strength of gravity) by Sunday. The maximum change in tidal difference in absolute value difference over 4 periods (one day to next) is from late Monday 2/16 until Wednesday early (max rate of change at 1.56 on Tues at 12:26pm from the same period on Monday). The absolute tidal difference (from high to low) will peak (max gravity) on Friday, 2/20 near the close, after which the tidal difference will begin to decline again.
SC
Steve,
I am sure there is so much more we can read from gravity. Thanks for this, I’ll look into it.
Andre,
Any Update? My work suggests a turn soon. I know you were expecting.
It is highly unlikely to be a marginal gain,
the DAX has pointed the way with a significant
breakout and US markets are likely to follow the
same path.
The comments such as this will end in significant
declines .. is about as perceptive as saying ultimately
we all die – that is guaranteed, it does not need to
be stated.
This is a timing issue and as with every bear market
I have experienced earnings will ultimately be key.
Mean SPX earnings, that is the only longer term timing
system you need, the rest is like the snake oil salesmen
of the wild west with their promised cure alls – it’s fools
gold, nothing more.
I may well be wrong but I fail to see how the EU can relent on current arrangements with Greece in regard to debt restructuring.
If they relent on Greece that sends a massive and I mean massive signal to Pademos in Spain as well as Spanish citizens, thus pikely ensuring their election later this year amd so they will be next followed by Portugal then Italy……. i just can’t see how it can happen???
You’re aware there was a restructuring in 2012 though?
Bound to be another one now.
Bound to be another for Spain, and Italy etc.
Eventually the lenders might wise up?
Or not, it’s all FUBAR IMO.
GM it is not the restructuring per se as much as this time Greece wants to remove austerity and I can’t see how that occurs without effectively “wiping away” much of the debt. That means Greece’s creditors have to foot the bill and I just can not see how that can happen given the situations in Spain and Portugal in particular.
Give in to Greece and that will strengthen Spain’s Pademos party dramatically and Mariano Rajoy is not going to be too happy with that stab in the back from the EU.
Like I said, I could be wrong but I think the flow on risks of giving into Greece are far too great for the EU.
Allan, we are all trapped in our thinking that lenders to Greece, Spain et al won’t want to take losses. However that ONLY works if the lenders have put up money of their own. With CBs it is merely numbers and has zero bearing on the assets of the individuals running the CBs.
Hence there is no human being at the lender end to feel monetary pain.
Their motivation is entirely different. The CBs along with the EU commission and IMF are only interested in power. Power that they can grab and control through debt servitude to the nations that they lend. So it is far better for them to ‘give in’ a little now but still have them dangling than have the people so riled up that they stop wanting to be indebted at all.
Greece has the biggest opportunity to show the world how to re-set themselves on a road to freedom by reneging on all debt and getting out of the Euro.
I’m surprised that with the mandate that they’ve been given by the Greek people that Syriza haven’t announced that as the only route forward.
Worth considering the risks if they do not give in to Greece.
Should Greece fully default, and exit the Euro, it’s game over for a project that has been 60+ years in the making. Markets would attack all other weak countries’ debts until they were forced to also leave, the whole thing would unravel.
As ever with Europe, compromise will win the day, and that’s no bad thing.
GM that depends on whether you believe the EU is a good thing in the first place. It COULD be if there was an elected commission based on democratic representation but currently they are a law unto themselves. MEPs are completely toothless as the Commission can ignore anything that vote on. Hence they become an expensive drain on the EU Zone.
I always thought that the earlier ‘commercial union’ was a far better idea than a federalised europe with a single currency but individual countries. That was a recipe for disaster before it began.
Purvez, I am torn, as I think the Euro and the ECB is a huge step forward for mankind, but the EU form of government is a step backwards.
I am hopeful that in a post dollar-based system, the EU will be bought down to size as the government bond bubble bursts and the world wakes up to the debt bubbles that have enabled big govt over the past 80 years.
Much to happen in the next few years first though, dangerous times.
GM I applaud your ‘doubt’. I understand your intellectual belief in the Euro it’s good for you to recognise the problem of a non-democratic form of govt for a ‘very large’ part of our globe.
I was unaware that Germany had 50% of it’s pre/post war debt written off in 1953.
http://eurodad.org/1544778/
Short memory comes to mind.
Anyway I have resigned to the fact no matter what’s happens in Greece or Ukraine or the mountains of debt the markets will refuse to take notice.
Just looking through the UKX, there is now a marked
weakening in defensives, this is not the price action
that would usually proceed a significant equity decline.
I am glad that John has stepped aside. Preservation is the key. He has reached his pinnacle a couple of years ago so a setback is OK…..his analysis is good but it it is the mass psychology that delays the outcome.
John: I recently came across your website, and enjoyed reading it. Thanks for creating a wonderful platform for astrologers to discuss the stock market. I also have a similar website stockastrologer.com. I use Vedic astrology to find the directions in the US stock market. Although my conclusions about the present state of stock market are somewhat different from yours, I will keep your concern in my mind while taking risks with my money. Thanks again. Raj
Thanks
I think almost everyone have stepped aside, including myself. I had hope 10 days ago, especially as no Santa rally occurred, but that rip from 1980 to 2096 on the SPX was fast and strong.
They (the system) will not let this decline for a moment regardless of any news, I will wait for the over extended parabolic move then grab a few percent, cash in and wait again.
Shame, I liked being an ultra doom & gloom Bear.
Saying that I want to say I’m grateful for John posts. His research and insight is fantastic, I’m sure he will be proved right some time in the future.
I also took great interest in BCs last in depth post, not a style iv witness before.
Hope he posts again. gL all.
Appreciated
Hi, John, I have similar view, but market makers ´re doing the best to Bearish Capitulation, once again
I´ve never seen -from oct´12 until now- such manipulation, distortion in Us Indices.
Current upwards structure is similar to 1906/9-16-19 (DJI), but not in time or revaluation -2-3 years up, +-100%-, in 17-years-sideways-structures-.
My thesis is that we might see, a 0,618 or 0,76fib. retracement from 2009 lows.
You can see Crude Oil chart.
The pattern suggested what we are seeing now, even 3-4 years ago, when crowd and analysts were so bullish.
And CRB Index.
AnD BOVESPA Index, without QEs
And EURUSD parity.
What is next? In my opinion, the DJ Industrials.
In 17-years-cycle generally see 3-4 recessions. US had only 2.
They need real capitulation.
We saw along 2014 bullish readings, from dec´14 to Jan´15 the most extreme reading in Investors Intelligence pool ,almost never seen and we are more than a year later.
Similar to 1999-2000 readings.
But the common opinion is that we are within a strong bull mkt, but we need a mid-term correction, to buy and hold, and crowd fear to enter long in the mkts.
We must see a Real Short capitulation and a massive `ultra-long positions´desperated not to see mid-tern decline.
Best Regards
@apanalis
Thanks for hosting a great blog John.
My view FWIW….
Seems that many bears have stepped aside recently. Was that the fuel for the rally in the past few days? No more short covering, no buyers left, is that the top?
Whilst BC’s comments were interesting, anyone that trusts that banks’ trading desks can keep control of whole markets is deluded. I remember LTCM had devised such wondrous systems that even central banks became share-holders!
How did that all pan out?
No, there is no conspiracy at all, just mankind’s usual propensity to see bubbles…after they have burst. Many here are fortunate to see it now, just ahead of its bursting, due to the usual factors as highlighted by our host.
My little bit of expertise (central banks & monetary evolution) has shown me that the whole world (including the Fed chairs) are preparing for the demise of the dollar-based system, and a move into a better system (the BIS are the driving force, and have been since the 40s). The Euro is the replacement. Anyone who has read about the inherent problems of using a national currency as the global reserve/trade currency (Triffin’s dilemma), knows that it is ultimately untenable.
The Euro is something different, as it is truly separate from any nation state, and is the first ever stand alone currency, with a clear price stability mandate. Perfect for global trade. Every move that you see being made by the ECB is designed to keep things ticking along until the dollar collapses. China stopped buying US treasuries a couple of years ago (this was designed to hide that fact http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/21/us-usa-treasuries-china-idUSBRE84K11720120521 ) but it still shows up in the TIC data. Dollars everywhere (including Eurodollars created by foreign banks) will eventually flood back home causing a hyperinfation…but you will see the Dollar index rising, few will grasp what is happening.
So, everyone knows what is coming, and they’re all preparing as best they can, some warmongering here and there, advancing totalitarianism, oil price cuts, its all connected. Cutting off support to the current dollar-based system, moving to a new system carefully, so as to avoid any major wars. If we avoid major wars the planning will have been successful, but no guarantees in life. Fingers crossed.
Considering the leverage and debts everywhere, one day your vast trading profits may just vanish along with the currency, or in a repeat of MF Global, hence, as I always do, I will repeat my suggestion to buy and hold some physical gold, it will go to levels most would consider ridiculous as this unfolds. Dirt cheap now though.
Good luck everyone, and thanks again to John and fellow commenters.
Ref your ideas about the uniqueness of the Euro as a trial new currency. That is what I thought the bitcoin is, a gov’t trial new currency. Otherwise they woild have shut it down immediately.
When markets do not do what one expects them to do, why does it have to be a conspiracy?
I agree markets are manipulated, but I believe that manipulation occurs in support of the prevailing trend. The SPX had 15% and 20% declines in 2010 and 2011 – was that manipulation to the downside, or did the market wrongly embolden the bears? Was the gold price manipulated up 700% between 2001-11 and then manipulated down?
Yes, altered & manipulated. Distorted, by QEs, $85.000 millons buying directly into the stock markets (equities and bonds) probably making a new bubble and inbalanced.
Cycles tends to repeat similar patterns for centuries, but they can be altered in the short-mid term by interested forces with a flattening economy and delaying a new recession.
When stymulus stopped in 2010 and 2011, you saw the result.
And now?
Time will tell, but Cycle will put thing in place.
@apanalis
$85.000 millions per month
@apanalis
Markets are not manipulated, it’s the lesser who plays the market that’s manipulated.
99% turn bears, market moves higher and will carry on until that 99% are burnt. Then 99% turns bull, market moves lower and……..
It sadly seems the way.
Love GM’s comments, especially about gold. Completely agreed. I too believe that gold will get to the level we now would not imagine. Next week is crucial as gold needs to break through the 1280 resistance. After that 1308 and 1400 within 8 weeks. That is what I see from the cycle stand point, while the SM will have a correction until early March, exactly as Andre has specified. We have a few trading days until 03/05, and I firmly believe that Andre is on to something big here.
My advice is this… You got a few bob, spend it on yourself, on your family, your kids. Don’t bother trying to play the markets unless you are the few people have a super fast system. Even then it’s like a flip of the coin,long or short.
Just my view to the 99% out there. Don’t feed the market, just let it do what it’s wants to do.
Ed Seykota said…
“Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Just a rambling thought about Saturn, Sagitarius, and possible market movement from here. Last 3 rotations of Saturn from Scorpio into Sagitarius have resulted in exhuberant price moves in the equities market.
Last one was the 1985 to 1987 price up move which culminated in the 1987 market fall which was towards the end of Saturn in Sag, the prior one was the late 1950’s market exhuberance which subsided into the early 1960s, and the one before that was the 1929 market parabolic move and fall.
Whenever during recent history(examples to follow) Jupiter or Saturn is in Sag, the market tends to move much higher. A possible lay out would be market has 2 to 3 years bullish move from here (I am not bullish or bearish just looking at possibilities) culminating in a fall around the time Saturn leaves Sag late 2017 early 2018, just in time for Jupiter to arrive in Sag to support a price recovery. Jupiter in Sag has historically been really good for stocks, planet has a 12 year cycle 2018-9, 2006-7, 1994-5, 1982-3, each of these Jupiter in Sag years have been very beneficial to stock prices.
Anyone interested in looking planets correlation to markets http://www.theplanetstoday.com is a 3 d solar system with scrollable date tab. If there is anything to astro planetary stock trading Sag is key, because it is the house that contains the Galactic Center which has the energy of 70 million suns.
If there is a Sat in Sag supported parabolic stock market rally for the next 2.5 years it would match the late 20’s, late 50’s, and mid/late 80’s. In each of these moves stocks fell quite a bit after the up moves. In the 20’s and 50’s the peak corresponded to solar max so the fall was more prolonged, where as the 80’s was close to solar minimum so the fall was less in duration. Given solar waning maybe this imagined Sat in Sag up move will be muted, and the corresponding market fall will be less as well.
Excellent thanks.
That late 2017 (even early 2018) timeframe corresponds well with the longest extreme of the SC24-induced speculation peak window (November 2014 to late 2017).
Thank you John for another great post. My two cents is that it is less likely that there will be a blow off top run in the next 4 weeks. From the cycle count stand point, it is very late in the intermediate cycle count, that it is due for a move down from here, then a rally in April or a blow off top, a bubble phase before a real crumple in September. Imho
I said this before, and have to mention it again that I admire John’s work, and much appreciate what Andre is contributing to the board. Andre, your work is fascinating. I have incorporated your foreast into my cycle count, and my winning trades have been up tremendously the last couple months. I can’t thank you enough.
Thanks.
This article may alarm Investors Chronicle readers who expect benign conditions to exist forever:
http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2015/02/13/your-money/financial-planning/why-near-zero-inflation-is-coming-EfuIKiqs5QXLKo2WBlThuJ/article.html
Why near-zero inflation is coming By Pete Comley
He mentions demographics; probably more in his book.
“Money will revert largely to its original purpose – ie, a method of exchange and store of value. The perversion of being able to make money from nothing may be extinguished and the principle of risk/reward return. However, how we get to that state is going to be a challenging time for any investor.”
Charles why post a link to an article that requires subscription?…….I am always suspect of such posts. Either reproduce the whole article or don’t bother
purvez I possibly was not clear enough. This is not about Greece it is about Spain and Portugal and then Italy.
Cave to Greece and the unwittingly strengthen anti-austerity parties in other debt laden countries.
Do that and it sets up a major potential for crisis down the track.
I still think the EU play hard ball smd try to force Tsipras’s hand. They may just get more than they asked for. Does he have the guts to walk away??
Allan, yes I understood that you meant if they gave in to Greece then they would have to do the same for the others. The point I was trying to make is if they can get away with agreeing say a 33% hair cut on Greece debt then they are setting the precedence for only a 33% on all the others.
As I said the absolute numbers are meaningless to these guys. They want these countries to remain in debt servitude. Whether it’s at a 100% of current level or 66%. They know that these countries can’t pay anything back anyway but it keeps them beholden to the EU, ECB and IMF troika. That’s all these power hungry bureaucrats care about.
Now if Greece walks away without paying anything and it turns out 18 months down the line that nothing really drastic happened to it’s people THEN the troika’s game is up.
That’s what they have to really avoid at ALL cost.
Mate there is no way that Gemany will agree to 33% haircut. German’s will riot throughout Germany and a 33% cut across all debtors would crash the whole Eurozone to smithereens and likely the whole global banking system.
Ain’t gonna happen voluntarily. I don’t see that there is any other option other than a Grexit either sooner or later…the sooner the better for all concerned.
Allan I used to think like you but I’ve come to the conclusion that the CBs have mastered the art of money printing to the extent that they just buy up all ‘dead beat’ loans and lock them away forever.
Longer term that causes monetary devaluation but how is that any different from QE which the German populace are not doing anything about either?
I personally favour the Grexit, particularly if Syriza can use that as an excuse to pay NOTHING back.
I reckon their economy in 18 months time would start to see improvement and all the ‘doom and gloom’ that is foretold by the ECB will NOT have come to pass. Then they are staring at all the other countries’ populations wanting the ‘same’ from their ‘militant’ parties.
Yep, look at Iceland etc, default is the only way to not enslave your taxpayers. It will then be tough for 2-3 years, but the Greeks seriously have it so tough already that they really need to do this. When I speak to acquaintances and friends down there from ages 22 to 65 of differing income brackets and unemployment/employment it really is fuked up…..I suggest they default and move on.
J
Re Germans, and taxpayers in general….yes they may be unhappy to let Greece have a haircut but they don’t remember the haircut they had themselves a few decades ago. Additionally, taxpayers don’t seem to get annoyed at the devaluation of their currencies or the other forms of blatant theft, its only when its another country or something well-defined that their ire is stirred.
A crazy world where moving to a non-monetary system is essential and a lot of education and hardship required in order to make the necessary fundamental change.
imho
J
jegersmart….you are definitely a ‘bit’ ahead of your time with the non-monetary system call.
It will come but (depending on one’s age) most here will not see the ‘benefits’ of it.
What you seek is here already, the Euro. A money separate from the state, and separate from gold. Huge leap forward. Will take time for everyone to see that, and appreciate the benefits.
What great source of smiles and laughs.
Allan, hope you are enjoying them also.
Greek developmnets getting interesting, my brother?
Yes mate both sides are backed into corners. EU can’t possibly ive in or they lose not only credibility but risk losing the whole EU. I think they are prepared for and resigned to a Grexit.
The funny thing is that the markets are completely unprepared due to Central Banks totally nullifying all risk aversion in recent months.
I keep hearing how tne VIX is signalling rampant fear!…… LOl the VIX is hardly off historic lows and people are talking about fear. It shows just how distorted amd disconnected to reality investors amd markets have become.
Regarding Greece: Yanis, the new Greek Finance Minister, has been thinking about this a long time. I think the EU elites are talking to a man not motivated by power or money but seems to actually care about the human suffering caused by austerity. Watch this TED talk from 2011 and you will see Yanis may be willing to take this all the way. http://youtu.be/CRRWaEPRlb4
BlueStar, I just watched Yanis’ TED talk. The man has some clear ideas about where he sees Europe going. Let’s hope he has the conviction to hold on to them now that he has political clout.
Also let’s hope that Juncker and Draghi didn’t watch this before they went in to the meeting because that would a ‘red rag’ even before they got started.
Haha – Purvez, the change will not come without a lot of hardship……because most people do not understand what money is and what it does in a cultural sense. They have to experience it personally first. Unfortunately.
GM, the Euro is just another form of “money” – and is therefore inherently corrupt. In time, humans will understand this and just maybe demand an alternative. I agree though that if I have 20-40 years left – it is unlikely that I will see this.
In the meantime, doing well in the current system is no excuse for ignoring the plight of the many.
imho
J
jegersmart: ‘In the meantime, doing well in the current system is no excuse for ignoring the plight of the many’
An investor ‘with a heart’.` Now you don’t see many of those around these days. Although I suspect there are more than the blogosphere’s fair share in ‘THIS’ space that John has created.
Thank you John for that.
jegersmart,
You have a view that all money is the same, and is inherently corrupt.
It should already be clear to you that the ECB and the Euro are different, but if not, rather than try to convince you now, I will merely say that time will certainly prove otherwise.
Ceasefire in tatters. Like I said last week, no one saw this coming!
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/16/ukraine-ceasefire-fighting-escalates-debaltseve
David Tepper has been the axe on this market. Interesting that he was calling for a 8-10% increase in the S&P 500 in 2015 while selliing down his stock position by 40% at year end.
Bloomberg Billionaire investor David Tepper reduced his firm’s investments in U.S. stocks last quarter, liquidating stakes in some of the largest companies.
The value of Appaloosa Management’s publicly disclosed U.S. equity positions dropped by $2.74 billion last quarter to $4 billion, according to a regulatory filing Friday. The firm exited its holdings in Citigroup Inc., Halliburton Co., Facebook Inc. and Apple Inc. The firm also sold almost all its shares of an exchange-traded fund that tracks the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.
The moves came as Tepper, who manages about $20 billion, made bullish comments about U.S. stocks in interviews during the quarter. He said on CNBC in December that the S&P 500 could rise 8 percent to 10 percent in 2015 after telling Bloomberg Television in October that the price-to-earnings ratios for U.S. stocks weren’t high.
Currency is not to be confused with ‘money’.
“Gold is money. Everything else is credit.”…..J.P. Morgan
Money is just debt. Gold is an asset. JP Morgan’s quote is misleading, as gold specie was money back then. It isn’t now.
GM agreed that quote was made when the gold standard existed thus the reference. We are in a different era in that regard.
Money is whatever people accept it to be. The big variable is confidence in what is accepted. That is where gold plays a role.
No, it is not misleading. Gold is money (at least one type of money). The determination of money is a free market process. Money comes about in natural way, not by edict. The free market determined that gold was the most preferred form of money because of its intrinsic value, scarcity, durability, divisibility, and portability.
Government has hijacked the free market by monopolizing the money/credit market and handing it to the bankers. The debt notes we’re using as “money” now is counterfeit. Its only functioning as money because it is backed up by the threat of violence from government (legal tender laws). Practically no one would be using them if the coercive monopoly was ended.
So you were happy with having govts use gold as their money? Weird, manipulation out in the open.
I’m happy gold is floating free, just needs the LBMA paper market (XAU) to vanish and we’re away.
Read David Graeber’s history of money, otherwise you’re swinging in the dark I’m afraid. Money has always been debt.
No, don’t put words in my mouth. I would be happy if there wasn’t a coercive monopoly over the money market and each individual had the freedom to choose what type of money they want to transact with. Governments just merely adopted gold because it was the preferred (not the only) type of money at the time.
Whether monetary systems originally originated from some sort of barter system or credit/debit system doesn’t make a difference. In the credit/debit system, the debt is paid with something. Whatever that something is, that is money. It can be many different things. It doesn’t have to be one specific thing. But it cannot be debt. You cannot make payment of debt with a debt.
Go read David Graeber. Money has always been a debt.
Rather than telling me to go read someone else’s reasoning, why don’t you actually provide some yourself?
I understand that Graeber argues that money did not evolve from barter but instead emerged from extending credit.
Even if that is the case, its does not matter! Good/services have to eventually be exchanged between creditor and debit to balance the account. So, the credit/debt is not the actual money. The money is whatever good/service is used to PAY the creditor and balance the account.
The credit/debt system is just a time-delayed barter system.
In regard to AAPL’s daily chart you really have to ask the question…….Breakaway gaps or exhaustion gaps?……..the chart looks like Swiss cheese
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p07665577029
I hope John can take a break and refresh accordingly. He is capable to hop back on the winning side, by focusing on those indicators in his tools kit that matter the most..e.g. his observation of the $NYAD (cum.) break-out. It is objective, real time and doesn’t lie….whereas people’s prediction is just that…prediction.
He is already out — are you suggesting he should go long?
No suggestion. He is his own man.
Gold selling off hard.
Actually Phil, commodities generally taking a dive today, I use the gold/silver ratio as a risk proxy, and when silver plunges (like today) whilst gold drops at a more sedate rate, then watch out ahead, as ‘risk off’ is imminent in all markets.
I wonder if the FTSE will exceed the old 2000 high, or 7,000.
Interesting times indeed.
The way bonds are getting ripped in Feb makes me think that Armstrong’s Big Bang may have already started. Confirmed if TNX > 2.5%.
In regards to Greece, Iv never ever seen this much confusion, claim and counter claim.
It’s PR war.
They Cannot organise a piss up in a brewery, term comes to mind,
The only other way I can describe it is like watching 12 parents (EU Finance ministers)
Wave a cheap toy in front of a their screaming child (the market) in order to stop that child crying, kicking a screaming.
Its inevitable Greece has to leave, just get on with it and stop this silly market pacification with false hopes a mis information. Its embarrassing.
The market can take it, just god sake get on with it.
Rant over 🙂
Ignore the noise and bluster with Greece,
for now it looks like an agreed extension
period for talks to continue.
Longer term we may be looking at an exit,
not an issue for now IMV.
Now it’s well beyond a joke, extension to bail out news originates from Brussels but televised on Greek TV.
Can I please hear it from the Greek PM, ….yeah right.
GM said:
“jegersmart,
You have a view that all money is the same, and is inherently corrupt.
It should already be clear to you that the ECB and the Euro are different, but if not, rather than try to convince you now, I will merely say that time will certainly prove otherwise.”
You are thinking only within the confines of a monetary system of some sort….i.e. too myopic. What I mean is that within any culture where monetary or wealth gain is necessary to survive, there will always be corruption.
I am talking about a society free of the constraints of any monetary bindings at all. But, I understand that this is not the forum where an in-depth debate should take place – people are not here to read about this stuff I am guessing?:D
J
jegersmart, I would be very interested in discussing this particular topic further. Name your time, place and weapon of choice. Lol.
I am thinking in terms of mankind’s evolution, which has always involved money, and always will. (Star Trek is fictional after all).
Lunar Chord 7 D:
Diameter of light(new/full): approaching new +
Declination: moving to north +, equ. crossing Fri ++
Distance: perigee on Thursday +
Depth of tides: rising until Friday +
Daily price setup: upward trend +
De Planets: merc retro recently completed +
Daily seasonals: last two weeks Feb. weak –
Summary: I just went long US equities at noon Tuesday, will exit position Friday unless stopped out. Will go all in short on Friday at close as most of the above D’s will flip negative beginning next Monday. Perigees often mark tops exactly so I may consider exiting long position at Thursday close if 1% or more is obtained.
Nice trade Valley. Congrats.
Anyway who cares if Greece leaves, its not like the markets taking any notice. I just hate the media crap and lies.
Anyway I very much doubt Spain or Portugal or even Ireland would muster up any fight in them to oppose German/EU austerity.
Aaron, calm down friend. It’s only a game and with the tiniest of countries at this point. You’ll have plenty of chances to scream at the ‘telly’ when the bigger fish get fried.
Everyone’s just practising at the moment…poor Greeks guinea pigs.
$NYHGH (349) vrs. %NYLOW (38); $NYHL (311). Bulls are in cotrol while the bears camp has broken apart.
Long is the right side until it does not. Bears be patient. Wait for internal weakness
I expect today to be the top, but 2 new lows on NYSE. NOT PROMISING FOR THE BEARS. 50 new lows is one of the simplest sell signals.
We’re now in month 75 of SC24 and, compared to the previous most similar solar cycles, facing the most interesting period.
In SC16 the 1929 Dow peaked at month 73; but ISN (monthly sunspot number) was already dropping out of its plateau by then. That has not started to happen in SC24 yet. Comparing the ISN patterns in SC16 and SC24 indicates a likely ISN breakdown (and consequent speculation peak) around late summer 2015 (although that is a visual comparison, and exact timing is somewhat arguable).
In SC1 the ISN peak was around month 75, and started to break down from the plateau around month 80 (equivalent to July 2015). So this coming summer is likely to be an interesting time compared to both those previous cycles. But in SC1 the breakdown was messy and inconsistent right out until month 111, with some speculation in commodities peaking around month 95. Month 95 will be October 2016, and 111 will be February 2018.
The most likely time for a solar fuelled speculation peak remains late summer/early autumn 2015, but with those later dates being less likely but still possible.
On the other hand, the polar inversion by any hemisphere or average measure is done by the latest 7/2014. The latest datapoint seems to nail that coffin.
http://wso.stanford.edu/Polar.html
Mark, I got us at month 73 of SC24. In any case, is the official start date just wrong?
It says here Jan 2008, which means month 85:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_24
Yes, we’re living in a time where if it says “official” in front of it, its probably wrong! The method in Wikipedia (first sunspot with new polarity) is sound from a physical point of view, but given that sunspots are a rare occurance at the minimum means it is a very broad timing tool. There was also an unexpected long delay before any SC24 sunspots appeared, making for a very long minimum.
That’s why I think its important to compare the ISN patterns, especially in weak cycles, and look at where speculation ended in previous patterns. Both Jigs and Joseph Teofilo have also compared the timimg of these patterns, rather than rely on an arbitrary start date.
In quoting month 75, I am using the date from solen.info so that it can be compared to timing data of previous cycles on that site. http://www.solen.info/solar/images/cycle24.png
Missing the latest data point on it but it still remains my favorite overlay. Ive looked at enough old articles and charts that divergence heavily from all these supposed “official” dates and “official” forecasts. The truth is I’d much rather have Mark’s thoughts than Nasa’s anyday.
Thank you John för your diligent work. Do not give up!
Human behavior is ofcourse influenced by ”space weather” to varying degrees.
You have shown us that.
However, why should we build models based on external factors alone?
External factors are so many and so varied that it’s overwhelming.
I’m hoping you would consider the ”simpler” method of modelling price and moneyflow.
I do believe this is the only way we can model any ”edge” at all.
Every ”external” factor is already included in the priceaction, every factor from politics to spaceweather have made their contributions.
Space weather and under/overbought conditions is good for determining risk.
I have mentioned before some wellknown models that use price and moneyflow.
decisionmoose.com – moneyflow
Their model is longterm, so it’s only one basic step to consider as part of a model.
recessionalert.com – fundamentals
Also a longterm, basic model. You did discard recession models in an earlier post, but this site nails the two previous tops within a week or two. If they’ll nail the next one remains to be seen.
They’re not very accurate in deciding bottoms, though.
So what about priceaction? That’s where i’d like to see you put on your thinking cap, John.
It’s all about statistics.
Even such basic models as the Dow Theory shows us that there really are edges to be found with slicing and dicing priceaction. Also a long term model in this case, but it’s a start.
dogsofthedow.com/
We all know what I’m dragging up here, but give it a thought. I have my own ideas how I would want it done, but my problem is I get stuck with all the ”mechanics”. Problems with reliable dataflow, programming the software and on and on. Still, after 30 years in and out of the stockmarket, I do have my own simple approach.
However, to my thinking, the only way to really get any working edge at all, is to build your own system and model. Based on priceaction/statistics for signals, and spaceweather/moneyflow for risk. Plus proper stops, ofcourse. Boring and tedious, I know. But without a model we trust, all else is speculation and ongoing discussions. It’s like betting on horses, so many opinions, but it’s the boring statistics guy that bring home any consistent winnings.
The stockmarket’s a betting game. Ought to be made illegal, but for some reason we humans accept it.
Probably because of the inbuilt dreams of setting ourselves ”free”. Affects us all, whether we’re from Borneo or Alaska.
Been following you since before your Amalgamator days, think it was on Facebook you started. Or twitter or something. Have all your pages saved. A host of charts and ideas and resources! Amazing job you’ve done!
Respect, John!
Cheers!
Sigge
GM said:
“I am thinking in terms of mankind’s evolution, which has always involved money, and always will.”
I suspect there are thousands of examples in history where a statement like this has been proved false over time – simply because it is not easily conceivable when increasingly over time we are getting used to obeying rules, narratives and institutions that enforce the system. In the past, it was never believed it would be possible to fly let alone travel to the moon. It is literally only a few decades ago in some countries that people with different skin colours would not be able to travel together, that homosexuality was a crime, or in the case of a little Austrian was able to persuade a whole country that Jews were sub-human and incite his citizens to commit genocide on a massive scale.
People are no longer conscious of the fact that we are the only ones that actually can change things if we want to, if we are open to ideas. All we know these days is that we need to submit to labour in order to survive. We are used to banks committing crimes with impunity for which we would as individuals go to jail. We are used to our governmental candidates being picked by those with the money to do so. We are used to being lied to by our elected officials, or in some cases refuse to believe that if one is really uneducated in how the world works…
You may be right that we will never move away from monetaryism, but I hope not. I hope even more that the reason we didn’t was because no one could be bothered to try to find another way, or spend all their time shrieking that it was not possible – just because they could not challenge themselves to see past our own biases.
Will you look? Will you challenge yourself?
J
(labelled as “Investor with a heart” today. We need our narratives don’t we?)
DAX may take out 11K over the next couple of days.
Phil
I personally think it will or it won’t as well.
J
PPI comes out tomorrow. It is estimated to be minus .4. A 5% rate of deflation (minus .42) indicates a deflationary spiral has taken over. This is impt as the low interest rates and easy monetary policy is and has been good for the markets. Deflation trumps ez monetary policy at least for a while, a year or 2. The strong dollar and oil crash lend to this conclusion. Tomorrow should confirm it. Plus we have many things that John has pointed out showing a crash should (have) occur(red). Has the deflationary snowball reached critical mass?
Interesting, though, the U.S. Treasury Bonds have gotten smashed in February. The 10-year total return is -4% and change; the 20-year has lost more than 8% MTD.
If the SP TRIN closes Wednesday at 0.77 or below we will have the second Bretz 5day TRIN SELL signal of the month.
I smiled when I read yesterday that the Greek Finance Minister Tsipras is the the only one out of all the other EU Finance Ministers to hold a degree in Economics.
So that’s why he doesn’t get on with the rest of them. 🙂
Tsiparis is Prime Minister.
Finance Minister is Varoufakis a “political economist” author of “Game Theory”.
Maybe thereby knows more about taking liberties and getting away with it. Maybe like his father who fought the civil war on the communist side only to become chairman of a major steel company.
I think the moral of the story is that solar analysis fails in ZIRP conditions and constant QE. Lesson to bear in mind for next time.
I agree. Monetary conditions are the most impt factor.
The way I see the current market is that zero risk has been assigned to Greece and I mean ZERO!
Not to mention zero risk to everything else…. Strong dollar, declining eranings, lower guidance, slowing glibal growth…….
Greece is apparently going to put forward a new proposal on Wednesday that revolves around reducing austerity.
Haven’t we fricken been there already??……TWICE….
It was rejected outright by Germany and several other nations last week and again on Monday.
So the markets have factored in no risk which when a market is making new all-time highs is more than a tad precarious.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/greece-present-creditors-proposal-loan-090200716.html
It’s like I keep saying. Global markets by and large have, due to Central Bank intervention, lost all apetite or ability to correctly assess risk aversion.
This is what will lead to the greatest crash in history. There will not be any side stepping this when it comes. Those that are exposed will be wiped out overnight.
I believe the markets could decline by 80% in days not weeks or months and that is why I decided just over 12 months ago to limit my exposure by almost 100%.
Extraordinary performance by the DAX.
MCX powering ahead, UKX got over 6900
however defensives now selling off again.
Weakness in defensives and gold does not
usually indicate a significant imminent market
correction imv.
Phil wanna hear something even more extraordinary.
Australia’s big four banks are now placed in the top 15 globally in terms of market cap!!!
What is even more astounding, their collective exposure to residential property is over 60%!!!!!!!!!
To a property market that is in a once in several generations bubble that almost NOBODY will admit to. And if you do try to sound the warning you are labelled a pessimist lunatic that knows nothing about anything.
My God this is going to end so badly for Australia. It will take decades for the nation to recover when this collapses.
one thing to note is that the dollar is at 3 year highs and the vix has not made new lows as the market is making new highs, so we could be in sight of a near term top, http://rajveersmarketviews.blogspot.in/2015/02/warning-signs-for-risk-assets-in-2015.html
OK, the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell .8 for January. That should be an official Deflationary Spiral sell signal as it annualizes to minus 9.6%. The gov’t gives monthly, annualized, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted. So it is little confusing. I’m going with the sell signal. On the $ and oil, I’ve had some good call, but have been wrong all year on the mkt. So could be a contrarian buy, so will wait for intermediate technical sell signal (summation index). I really think all the sell signals John has shown us will effloresce.
Market can’t handle a sizable surprise and it can panic and crash….
Do you consider the PPI news/result a surprise?
No, I was expecting it last month.
Also Newt, it is not a factor that is paid any attention to.
Not really, deflation is alive and well, this is just the oil price decline trickling through, precursor to a 2008 style decline all over again.
Tell me more. Hasn’ t the trickle just become a flood?
Ignoring all technicals and news items, I just think the broad markets look completely exhausted at this point, and really heavy. Just hanging around day after day, unable to move higher by any significant amount. No more buyers in my opinion, everyone is in already.
I can see no other way for this to end than by collapsing to fresh lows, maybe after a brief, final pop once the Greek deal is announced. But that won’t be the underlying reason. It’s just time.
Also, gold has not made fresh lows, still hanging above $1,200. Vix not at fresh lows. So many divergences.
Underneath the mild price retreat, $NYLOW stands at 8. The bear camp completely annihilated. No short yet!
You can check out the movement of $NYLOW from August 27th to September 22, 2014 versus price. The period marked the internal deterioration ideal for a nice short. Not now.
Staying long and waiting for the fat pitch.
Behold, the rains came. After much derision by the populous.
GM, would like to hear your comments on bitcoin as an evolution in money. It’s universality and apparent total separation from gov’ts and banks make it very interesting.
Kent, I’m not well read on Bitcoin to be honest, which perhaps reveals a lot about my view on its prospects in the medium term. Too volatile for a start, money needs to be stable.
Who knows what the long term might bring, but I suspect govts will not just walk away from their seignorage profits and leave it to the markets.
We have so much to get through in the next 30-50 years, it’s going to be hellish, After that, potentially, anything is possible, as we start afresh.
Mankind tends to repeat the same mistakes though, for millenia now.
Perhaps somewhere a superior species tunes in to our *channel* once a week to chuckle at our violent silly games.
I’m rambling way off topic now!
Gold sub 1200 atm.
Meanwhile, can you say ‘Timber’!!!
Some many have this bull super cycle (i.e. not yet a bear) still in the upper end of the middle. This is by definition nowhere near the top, but rather near the start of the 2nd major correction. If banging the same set of drums with monotony is bringing insanity (rem: Einstein) maybe look into assisting analysis with the more tried and more tested (i.e Elliott theory). The arguing is much the same but eventually the truth arises and complements the knowledge base, rather than becoming just more forgotten ramblings.
gdx-
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=30&yr=0&mn=1&dy=22&id=p51547621701&a=316775532&r=1424285265341&cmd=print
this chart was posted when it was posted because it illustrated a key idea that is fundamental to my trading and as a lead in to explaining the work of the greatest living trader I know. will return with explaination
EWT is like religion, everyone thinks they are following
the correct count, which is usually subject to numerous
changes.
all TA has an imperfect aspect… I have no trade entry that reaches target 100% of time….I can say unequivocally what has been the best elliot I have seen in my trading life… what I found most useful in coordination with my own work… it is the work at pugsma.wordpress.com…. and I am saying that having been tossed from that site a few years ago.
We may have a clearer indication where markets
now go, FED minutes out of the way.
Greek temporary fudge looks likely.
Lets see if bears can take this down.
Phil,
Bears never take down markets. Most markets begin to fall from a lack of buyers. Bears usually pile on once the trend has been established. The CBs know this and have not allowed a bearish trend to become established. They have eliminated most structural bears. The biggest risk to the CB’s is a flash crash that takes down this market in hours to days.
Bulls running out of (worry) wall to climb. ..a parabolic? a slow grind higher? or topping? now or around the corner.
Newt,
Wish I knew. But once I get a sell signal I will take a shot.
Blue, fair comment, that is laxity of language
on my part – let’s see if we now go lower was
my intended meaning.
Phil,
If we do eventually top out this week or next it would only be fitting. The bears have been slayed.
Watch gold miners very closely from today going forth. There is potential for a +30% move in GDX from $21 in one month time frame if it can hold above $20 this week and if there is follow through to a higher high next week.
The action is very, very positive so far especially after making a slightly lower low today and then reversing to the upside strongly. It is currently in a bull flag pattern on the weekly chart and this week is the fifth bar and due for an imminent breakout.
Steve, I really haven’t fretted over this sell off at all. In fact I agree. GDX has held up wonderfully in thebface of a quite savage gold sell off and it provides more evidence that the whole gold sector is a market that is in the process of evolving into a different beast from the one that it was.
The reporting by the MSM of the Greek debt talks is quite frankly astounding. Tspras and Varoufakis have made it strikingly clear. Extension yes, but under no circumstances under current austerity. Germany has made it quite clear. No austerity no extension!
And yet MSM is basically reporting that a deal will be done………what part of both sides do they not understand?
Allan, it will be a fudge, just like the US debt ceiling talks,
every time.
Ignore the noise, there is a crunch coming at some point,
but with Greece it is unlikely to be now.
The governing party fought the election on staying in
the Euro, not leaving.
There will be some face saving half baked fudge imv
and markets are strongly indicating that.
The DAX has been the most reliable indicator of
recent market direction imv.
You may get some sell off following the likely
Greek agreement, most likely a fat spike first
to take out stops and inflict maximum pain
to those short.
It’s worth remembering that Greece could default on 100% of its debts (it should), and still remain a user of the Euro currency, the two are not mutually exclusive.
Greece cannot be ejected from the Euro either, that takes a unanimous vote, and if Greece wants to stay, it will.
I have no idea how it will resolve, but I am amazed the markets are not wobbling just a bit this week over Greece. A sign of the complacency?
Where the heck is Elvis?
Rudolph E havenstein is a great guy to follow on twitter.
He just posted a picture of whipped cream gas chargers.
Is that stuff more prevalent than I realized?
Steve T
You made my day.
Quoting Newt: “No need to predict (wrong often). Just react.” And “Focus on indicators that matter the most”, referring especially to Nyad cumulative. “It is objective, real time and doesn’t lie….whereas people’s prediction is just that…prediction.”
I would like to borrow these sane words, for predictions are hollow gestures at best. It is under this umbrella that I put forward my dates, only to highlighten the possiblity of a turn and a resistance area on the S&P 500, based on the number 144.
But first:
Today is the 19th, the date that showed up on the Nasdaq as the start of a possible panic. I’m still in the dark if I’m wrong about this assumption or not. Panics are notorius for their ‘misbehaviour’: they creep in earlier or just when you think you were indeed wrong, they hit the market full force. Won’t be the first time.
The S&P.
The July 16, 2007 and the May 2, 2011 top on the S&P are connected by 958 TD. In both instances seizable drops followed. February 20, 2015 is next date.
Add to this the May 2, 2011 top and the April 2, 2012 top, connected by 336 calender days. 336 x pi 3.14 = 1055; April 2, 2012 + 1055 calender days is also February 20, while in the mean time we have on the S&P the PRICE of the march 2009 bottom x pi is about the price in the here and now.
On to 144:
SPX 2007 high, intraday= 1576.09.
A fraction of 1576 = 576.
1576 + 576 = 2152, a a possible price target;
576 is also 4 x 144.
The first real top after the March 9, 2009 bottom was January 19, 2010. The intraday high, 1150,45 + 7 x 144 =2158,45 while 15 x 144= 2160. So we may find initial resistance in the range 2152-2160 on the S&P.
Nevertheless, sooner or later I suspect 2200 is in the cards for other (harmonic) reasons. We will see about that soon enough, I quess.
Why using the square of 144 for a price-target? Because it shows up in time-counts.
Besides the obvious march 2003 and 2009 bottoms (next= march 1, 2015, which in my opinion has no meaning at all, but it is in line with Lindsays concept low-low-high) there is the 13 x 144 calendar days from January 19, 2010 = march 6, 2015.
Furthermore:
October 15, 2014, bottom + 144 CD= March 8, 2015
June 4, 2012, bottom + 144 weeks= March 9, 2015
March 12, 2003, bottom + 144 months= March 12, 2015.
The four year cycle paints a similar picture, the dates come in a few days later:
-February 18, 2003, a high with 22 calendar days later the bottom on March 12, 2003;
-February 22, 2007, a high with 19 calendar days later a bottom on March 14, 2007;
-February 18, 2011 a high with 25 calendar days later a bottom on March 16 (12,14,16; march 18 in 2015?)
The importance of this CIT may very well be delayed because of April 4, the total lunar eclipse. Once the eclipse is out of the way the risk of weakness in equities much greater, which should last to around may 4, 2015 should such a thing unfold.
While I discourage prediction(s), I do enjoy reading those that are astute and a bit “mystic”….. Your prediction is very interesting and I will watch how it plays out. Thanks.
A master trader named Carl Futia is now calling for SPX 2,200.
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/
Futia also updates Lindsay’s 3 peaks and a domed house pattern from time to time. He calls for Dow to 18,800 or so to end in late April…and a drop at least 30-40% from whatever high is made by the Dow.
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2015/02/lindsay-update.html
Before Spring Equinox ?
pete thanks for your sharing your analysis
these are good reference to incorporate to my trading plan
I buy your idea of May 4 should be a global top and for coming weeks, i expect some volatility for Yellen speaks on 24 Tue and 25 Wed.
PS Feb 24 is 60 cd cycle from 2014/12/26 top
Today is the new moon one cycle away from a solar eclipse. A potential top if this eclipse period is influenetial.
Peter… Thank you for your post. Fascinating facts indeed.
You’re welcome. My ideal scenario is a bottom in march, in line with the four year cycle, from which we will launch higher. This will turn out to be the last gasp. If I had to choose a date in 2015 for a big top, ultimately ending with a panic, it would be april 13/14, 2015. That is the most likely date to be found. But there are many alternatives this year, who are almost just as appealing. One of them already offered on this site by Balenthiran.
So when I predict a top and it was a top, I will be star and everyone forgets that I also predicted a panic, based on the Nasdaq, which did not pan out. That’s the way it works. I don’t want to be one of those Ganngnats, I don’t need the hall of fame. I want to trade what I see and be aware of times when there is the likelyhood for a bottom, a top or a CIT of importance. Dates are just dates, distratcions. Valley also uses them, but he tries to trade in harmony with the trend. That’s a big difference.
You have to respect price, trends & trendlines, and using weekly. monthly and quarterly closingprices to get an idea for support zones and most of all, you have to watch the internals for clues. That’s the reason I like Newt’s statement (despite the fact that I too read my horoscope in the paper, nothing wrong in doing so). If internals weaken, lining up with an upcoming date, you know the risk is less to position yourself on the right side. That’s all there is to it and it’s hard enough these days.
Time to short boys and girls. SP-500 target to short 2101.89
Posted this 19th Day of February @ 10:30 CST
geno, an explanation of ‘why’ would go down well with the directive. Thanks
Purvez, whenever I have called long or short on this blog, I have followed it with at least 5 reasons. Everytime, the reasons are rebuked. There’s no point.
geno, there will ALWAYS be ‘opposite’ points of view. Please don’t let that discourage you from saying why you are making a call. Thx.
Down Volume is indicative of the commitment of the sellers. $NYDNV 10 EMA is diving vertically at 306. At the low on Sept 1st, it was 224. ell signal came
Until it hooks(up) strongly, shorters are at risk of another squeeze.
Newt, I understand the concept of down volume and your first para makes sense, assuming you meant (s)ell.
It’s the second para that I’m struggling with. Please would you elaborate. Thx.
As sellers begin to sell and gain momentum…Down Volume begins to rise and sharply…thus, the moving average curve will turn up… to a critical point when price would roll over.
September 1, 2014..$NYDNV the 10 SMA curve turned up and rose continuously….on September 22, 2014 internal indicators (collectively) gave a sell signal.
Thanks for the reply Newt. I had the chart ‘upside down’ in my head. I understand now what you mean.
Peter. Thanks again. I like your call for March lows a lot, It is in line with Andre’s prediction, and my cycle count also points to a lows in early March, before a bubble phase will start in April/May. I believe that a real collapse will be in the fall Sep/Oct. We’ll see very very soon if the correction scenario plays out in March.
Erick
I’m not disputing what you say, it has been my favorite scenario for a top for a long time, as so many cycles point to august/september. But in the mean time, there are many hurdles to overcome. So I take it day by day and don’t put too much weight on dates or scenario’s, as they come and go. It’s the only way to deal with this unreal market unless you want to blow up your trading account.
NIKKEI new high, Europe new high, DAX ATH, SPX ATH. No shorts until NASDAQ hits ATH.
Peter, thanks for sharing your numerology/Gann like sleuthing techniques at stock market prediction. I am unsure if it pans out like you indicate but nonetheless I find it absolutely fascinating and intriguing!
GDX malperformance today is due entirely to one stock (Goldcorp) getting hammered. GG down over 7% so far after it released quarterly earnings today before market open. Unfortunately GG makes up nearly 11% of GDX!
The remarkable thing is that about two hours in premarket trading before the open today GDX was trading over 21.40 or +5% from Feb18 low and gold was up $8 from yesterdays close (and up $30 from the low).
The bottom line is if the $20’s hold this week and it still can rise above $21 by the end of next week, then the probability of a strong bull scenario is likely to unfold. If there is no follow through next week or somehow gold tanks tomorrow on Greek related news then I personally will avoid this sector until mid-summer for re-evaluation.
My two cents is that SPX is showing all signs of an intermediate market top. Market is not able to move up by any significant amount. BTFD happens during the day, doesn’t stick, so traders sell again before close. No more buyers. Just day traders and banksters trying to suck in a few more bucks before an overdue correction.
While it can’t be ruled out that market is It is in the final bubble phase, it is so late in the SM cycle that I don’t personally believe the blow off top is happening now. Instead, I believe the blow-off phase will be after the March correction.
So much agreed with Steve T on gold. It is bottoming and ready for a launch when the SM sell-off resumes next week.
erick, I don’t understand your comment that it is not in a ‘blow off’ phase because it’s so late in the SM cycle…..and then you say that the blow-off phase will be after the March correction.
If it’s late in the SM cycle ‘now’ then surely it ls ‘later’ after March.
Just trying to clarify things in my tiny mind.
purvez – What I meant is that the current rally should not be a blow off phase, not yet. It needs a correction first, then a blow off phase maybe in April if my count is correct.
The stock market’s intermediate cycle low has been overstretched by the Fed. My expectation is that the market will potentially hit the lows in early March, then rally again.
The 20 day SMA of GDX rolls over again…another lower low.
They do work, Steve. Every now and then. And once in a while.
I took a look at GDX. Do you happen to know if this EFT is the same, or almost the same as the HUI, the Gold Bugs Index?
GDX is similar to HUI except HUI is more concentrated and “top heavy”. Example, top 3 HUI holdings account for 42% of the weighting whereas in GDX it is about 26%. The other notable difference is that GDX has 32 stocks and HUI has 16.
I’m enjoying the gold and gold stock discussions
i usually try to temper my enthusiasm about them by taking a long long term approach.
in that vein, i track a number of stocks and their long term condition relative to stan weinstein’s stage analysis
it’s very satisfying seeing the number of gold stocks moving from stage 4 to stage 1 and even more those moving from stage 1 to stage 2
http://www.nextbigtrade.com/stage-analysis
Which stocks in the 1-2 transition do you particularly like?
Just my 2 cents mind you
NG, HL and of course the royalty companies RGLD, FNV, SLW.
RIC is already way ahead
Why are you guys bullish on gold. The 30 and 60 yr cycles peaked in 2011. The 8 yr cycle is down to 2017. Using 1980 as an analog and the MTF, a substantial bear mkt rally is not due until the end of this year. New production is coming on line. CB’s are heavy buyers which has historically been a bearish indicator.Commodities have a beautiful and massive five wave count from 1932 to 2011. So we are probably correcting a78 year bull mkt. It is at least 100% overvalued relative to long term real estate and adjusted for long term inflation. Finally, gold bullishness is coming out of the woodwork.
Hi Kent,
Thanks for your comments regarding cycles and gold. I think to almost everyone, gold is just another vehicle to trade in the current financial system. To some of us crazy people gold is a bridge to the next one. And the gold stocks are just a way to speculate a little bit along the way. I didn’t choose my moniker 15 years ago by accident.
Kent, you should not rely on cycles alone.
Note that the price of gold has nothing to do with commodities, or production, or Chinese demand.
Gold will simply be utilsed within the next 3-7 years (IMO) to recapitalise the world.
Everything in the financial world is overvalued (debts, derivatives), and the release valve for the write-offs and inflation to come will be gold.
It will also be used once again to settle international imbalances in due course.
We’re about to repeat the 70s, but with a different outcome.
And this: http://www.cfr.org/financial-crises/alan-greenspan-central-banks-stagnation-gold/p33699
Kent is right it is too early wait at least until September – 8 year cycle low.
Some shares look strong, but most of the miners have corrective patterns and we will see lower lows.
This is really really odd. A week ago the Greek debt situation was all over the media….today?…..well
Germany has rejected Greece’s latest proposal outright and reporting of that is almost non-existent.
There will be no deal but the markets don’t seem to give a c%#£!
Anybody else smell a rat?
‘A’ rat Allan. I can smell the sewer from above ground…like you. Heck I’m not even a cat.
All day long the talk was about a raise for Walmart slaves.
Specie, thanks for the link. I will study this. Interesting.
A critical time for SC24, as depicted by today’s magnetic image of the sun: http://www.solen.info/solar/images/AR_CH_20150218_hres.jpg
Large coronal holes forming at the poles and extending towards their equatorward counterparts – a classic sign of a solar maximum entering its declining phase.
But with a string of new active regions in the northern hemisphere, due as expected to the very tentative strengthening of the northern polar field. And these new regions are forming at a latitude which leaves room and time to complete their journey to the equator. If this continues, it means a revival of northern sunspots in 2015 and possibly longer – it doesn’t matter whether they set new highs, at this stage its the persistence that dominates and causes extreme behaviour.
Thanks for the information Mark, please keep us posted.
Steve,
Thanks. From where I live it’s easier to trade the HUI than GDX, that’s the reason I asked.I will dig up some charts from a few years ago and see if I can join the parade.
Erick,
Although we share the same thoughts about the next moves, don’t forget what happend after march 19, 2002. I still haven’t ruled out totally a same outcome.
.
Completely agreed Peter. Can’t never rule out a blow off top scenario, where Nasdaq will be taken over 5100. The Fed has killed so many natural cycles, both stock and previous metals. I would not be surprised if they do it again.
FYI My current intermediate cycle count started on 10/15/14 with daily cycle low on 02/02. It is long overdue for an intermediate cycle low.
Purvez – I appreciate your awareness of both sides talking and defending their book, or thoughts, idea, what have you.
Every time I’ve posted that we’re at or close to an interim low, I get called out by the bears. Every time I’ve posted a high is at hand or near I get called out by the bulls.
It’s about time everyone understands to make money at this game is not to be a bull or bear, but to be a trader who identifies good scenarios which to profit from.
I currently had a sell trigger at 2101.89, which I posted at least 5 days before price reached that level. The stop on this trade is 2136. The SMU sell signal on this trade has not yet triggered. Anyone who is long should have a sell stop set at 209.24 on SPY.
When price was close to my sell trigger @ 2101.89 I sold the shit out of it.
Supply is currently overwhelming demand. Should show up in the next couple of sessions.
Should the trade come to fruition, I will post all the evidence I used to come up with the short trade. Should it fail, you will never here from me again. I will disappear into the anonymity of the interweb and be forever shunned.
geno0010,
I respect your approach to playing both sides. I happen to think you are likely right and very soon. The only question I have is it a minor pullback or something more meaningful. Thanks in advance for your response. My opinion is that it should be more meaningful.
geno, I sincerely wish the trade works out for you. You’ve hinted at the reason why you think it will go that way and I appreciate your thoughts on that.
However even if it doesn’t I don’t believe anyone here is going to shun you and I do hope you continue to post your thoughts.
All here, starting with our host, are no strangers to differences of opinion and trades not working out.
Wish you G’Luck.
geno, is your sell trigger basically a limit order? If it was filled from before, it looked good this AM before things turned around and went back up.
geno,
I wouldn’t be so dramatic, we all appreciate different views here.
J
Regarding Gold (XAU), a low is due on march 10th.
My concern: connect the highs march 17, 2008 and the top, september 6, 2011 for a total of 879 Trading Days.
Count forward 881 TD and you end up with the high recently made on January 22, 2015.
This could imply that the whole downmove from march 17, 2008 to the october lows in 2008 is still in the cards. Which leaves the door open for the possibility that the bottom wont’be seen earlier as august 2015. Yes, again august, the month so many cycle line up for the indices as well.
Peter, if there’s a sever deflationary move down into early March (similar to March-Oct 2008), I don’t see gold falling, it should rise, as it has decoupled from industrial commodities for some time (couple of years).
However, if collateral/liquidity shortages emerge, and there is evidence they are, then XAU could be sold by the big banks to raise cash.
One needs to be strong-handed investing in gold/miners, it’s a wild ride, but it will pay off over the next few years.
We will see.
Regarding liquidity issues, a big clue that things are getting really tight in eurodollar markets is found within the bowels of the Bank of England, details/links here:
They know it is coming, they think they are ready for it.
“My concern: connect the highs march 17, 2008 and the top, september 6, 2011 for a total of 879 Trading Days.
Count forward 881 TD and you end up with the high recently made on January 22, 2015.”
Mar 17, 2008 to Sep 6, 2011 = ~3 years 5 months 3 weeks
Sep 6, 2011 to Jan 22, 2015 = ~3 years 4 months 2 weeks
I am not about to count the actual TD’s but I do not see how a difference of about one month could equate to similar number of TDs (879 to 881) even factoring in some holidays. Unless there is a typo in one of the dates listed above …
Thought some would like this
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2015/02/revisiting-buying-and-selling-pressure.html
as with any trader using a specific set of tools I am always grateful when the tools give the results they were designed to give….but when it is time to exit… it is time to exit and move on….
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BA&p=60&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62967563715&a=337809157&r=1424434906947&cmd=print
I remain curious and open minded to all approaches… but I found my tools gave me the best heads up as to the best moment to exit the trade…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=X&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p99590558880&a=274423116&r=1424435526363&cmd=print
here again
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=M&yr=17&mn=3&dy=0&id=p15340193779&a=333536382&r=1424435942315&cmd=print
One of the most important uses of the tools is having an awareness IN ADVANCE
of not selling into a hole from which price often rockets out of….
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CVX&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p57863989553&a=208481121&r=1424436351682&cmd=print
The major downward move in to early March
has very little time left to play out.
Would have thought that type of move should
be underway today followed by a heavy down
day Monday, let’s see.
I explain what I do to children and adults… Adults think it is too complicated.Children think it is too simple to the point of boredom…Children like the concept of ”3 little indians” as shown three times on this chart…I simply tell them”don’t fight the Indians” and they get it….
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DUST&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=12&id=p18440228597&a=285515922&r=1424438396092&cmd=print
A method of focusing on key pivots I have not show here before is the ”3 harmonics trade” it is very simplistic…simply honoring the presence of three groups of traders..medianline,fib, and gann.. and focusing on pivots that are simultaneously important to all three… by doing so I answered for myself the question” Why did price exceed the exact level given by a tool before price turned?”When the 3 levels are close, price will”stretch” until it has touch all 3… only then it will turn… it is simply very useful to know IN ADVANCE where these clusters are located… Gann levels are always green horizontals on charts
example at high in VXX
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=17&id=p40213840430&a=347142822&r=1424439975286&cmd=print
here in F is a larger example… price”stretched” first past the Gann then the fib until it kissed the line from medianline set….only then did price begin its move..
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=F&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p01802679934&a=335573408&r=1424440913373&cmd=print
Alright what is going on with the VIX? Not reacting at all.
GM,
If that’s the case, and I won’t argue with that as I too believe the outcome will be as you say, the the best solution is to pick up some gold every now and then when price gets hammered. March may be a good start to allocate some more.
Slater9, I am always pleasantly sursprised with your pitchforkwork. How do you determine these Gannlevels? It’s unclear to me. You cut the the whole into 7 parts?
simply cardinal and cross numbers from sq9
Geno. No need to disappear if you are wrong. why?
It is only (your) money. If wrong, try again next time unless you have bet your life on this trade and wrong;
Predictions are just that, people probably are too busy dealing with their own issues. No one really really care. Certainly, the market does care about your feeling (win or loss).
Trade for fun is the best reason to trade. Just relax. In trading, being wrong is OK.
This mornings action was a classic ”melt to target” off the test and retest sell in place yesterday afternoon…. the important thing to remember is that ”melts” are retraced over 80% of time to the broken pivot as shown on this chart.. melts are orchestrated by the volatilty computers to reach their pivot point targets as quickly as possible.. if the index has reached its target and vxx has reached its pivot point target… the move usually quickly reverses…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=1&yr=0&mn=0&dy=2&id=p97987838640&a=331273786&r=1424448964651&cmd=print
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=3&id=p45522168567&a=347142822&r=1424449628163&cmd=print
the financials were weak the past few days… the tools gave you a way of knowing IN ADVANCE where the move might end and reverse….
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAS&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=6&id=p96271732321&a=326440957&r=1424450500401&cmd=print
Don’t forget to buy low while thinking when to pick the top.
GREK’s chart is looking good. The positive divergence. This is how bottom is formed.
Remember it is painful becasue it ain’t painful enough…The entire EU feels the real pain now so good thing will happen. If not, I can wait.
Everyone must his chance to do the Kabuki. When 50% youth is doing nothing. They must be smart enough to do something.
Hi all ! As the NASDAQ approaches 5000 points, I wanted again to congratulate all longs. Well done ! I am also very happy that John finally covered his shorts, although he should have listened to me earlier.
I still recommend QQQ, AAPL and IBB, all are at news highs. Europeans stocks should also do well with the 60 billion a month printing program.
I hope John joins me be on the long side soon.
Thanks
As much as I disagree with your reasoning for being long you were right and I was probably wrong. Hope you made a few million being long since you deserve it.
“One of the biggest investment stories of 2015 is about to take off”
“The internet has grown spectacularly – yet the Nasdaq hasn’t kept up”
http://moneyweek.com/money-morning-tech-stocks-nasdaq/?utm_source=MMN&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=18-02-2015
Fundamentals used to work, technicals used to work, and that’s why I like this board and learning about solar and gravitational forces. It seems stupid to me to be long or short in a market like this. Go ahead and gloat Nicolas, but I’m 90% sure that you’re all talk and no action. More likely than not, you aren’t even in the market. It’s all fun and games for you when the market is up and then you just disappear when it goes down. It’s all about getting the rise out of the shorts for you. IMO, that kind of behavior is really kind of pathetic, but I guess that’s what it takes for you to feel better about yourself. Good luck with that…
LOL
Gold is giving no indication of an imminent
equity correction.
Just holding above 1200 atm.
Early reversals in US markets rapidly
bought back.
Greece did not deserve a fraction of the coverage
it got, and I hope too many did not waste time
following developments.
Nicolas, in your analysis, any concerns at all?
Anything we should be on the look-out for??
Or should we just be happy with all the rainbows and unicorns going forward?
Thanks!
Hi Barry ! I still don’t see anything on the horizon to kill this bull market. Japan central bank is printing like crazy, and the ECB will begin printing 60B per month in march. So blue skies ahead. Don’t forget that earnings, PEs, Price to Book ratio and so on are totally useless. The only thing that’s important is that central banks continue to buy assets.
You mean the omnipotence of the CBs may last longer than people may think?
Bull for the next 4 months at least and then we will have to see if the Greeks get another extension to extend the bull. I believe this is still a huge bubble hence I am just holding onto my core blue chip stocks and not using leverage.
Were did Andre disappear to???
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=5&id=p53514383908&a=326440910&r=1424459234002&cmd=print
often but not always… we shall see…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=3&id=p51977297950&a=347142822&r=1424461393394&cmd=print
The strong reversal of the SM today shows that the blow-off top process is likely starting. Dow is having a 200 pt swing. IBB is a good indicator imho. I feel fortunate to stay in cash, on the sidelines, watching the insanity unfolding. Too little rewarding to long, but too risky to short.
erick, i agree with you keeping an eye on IBB. no significant decline is gonna happen without the biowrecks clapsing
Watch out for sector rotation!
The point is to take and view the market holistically and never focus on 1 thing.
bears destruction in progress as always
erick, you may get a sell the news event,
however as the DAX has been the best leading
indicator of late, nominal new highs were less
likely than a significant breakout imv.
I appreciate many appear to think that next
week brings significant falls and others saw
weakness this week, the later did not happen
and the former shows few indications of
playing out either.
However, lets see what next week brings.
Phil. I too believe that next week is the last week for the bear to give it one more try. We’ll see soon if the potential March correction scenario is going to play out. Otherwise, the blow-off top phase is here and probably will not stop until Nasdaq hit 5100. I am simply watching and don’t have the urge to short, still too soon by my count.
UKX ATH gone on futures
always the same faces of shit. gold dumped and stocks pumped. someone is waiting for something different in the future?
Nothing much different until May and June, when the volatility will have will have us running for the nearest toilet! That’ll be just a warm-up, because only Jove itself knows what’s in store for July/August/September – but it’ll be something none of us has ever seen before…
But some warning signs from the gold market starting around the end of March.
I will be gone the next week,can someone tell Andre is astro cycle was backwards seeing as he has not posted the last 4-5 days
his astro
I intend to post only in the weekends; something wrong with that?
Mark, nothing different full stop imv.
If the next bear market exceeds 40%
I would be very surprised, likely to be
a shallow short bear market in the region of
25-35%.
Interesting day. Greek Syriza voters got screwed BIG time. And Tsipras and Varoufakis lost ALL credibility and walk away with their tails between their legs.
Men have got to know their constraints, reality and options.
The result should not be a surprise.
Shame the Greeks got fooled into electing a weak party. Or more likely Germany actually rules the eurozone. The other governments just exist to translate German into the domestic language.
yes, a sad day for Greece. I’m surprised. I thought the voters had spoken: No more loans, no more bailouts, no more austerity. I thought the Syriza party was committed to that. I thought here was a people, a country, that would stand up to the financial terrorists (to borrow a term from Max Keiser). What the heck happened?
Allan, that’s not the case. It’s just a very short-term deal to get the Greek govt through the next 4 months.
They may not even be able to agree terms with the troika over the weekend.
In 4 months, when the Greek govt has had time to prepare, they’ll stick to their election pledges.
Allan, I did say ignore the noise re Greece,
the Government wanted to stay in the Euro,
that was key.
All the news flow was the usual brinkmanship,
Greece did not deserve a fraction of the coverage
it got.
If crude falls sharply next week there could be
a sentiment shift that refocuses on slowing global
growth ahead, providing a reason for equity
markets to sell off.
However, markets appear becalmed currently
and the odds must favour further US gains following
the DAX in establishing clear new highs.
Many here have recently referenced their cycle work
pointing to sharp falls next week in to an early March
low.
Like so many cycles over the past couple of years,
these are likely to be invalidated once again.
Crude falling sharply is the bears best hope.
F**k the “bears”, it is the Greek people that got shafted today….at least on the face of it. Let’s see what Monday evening brings.
This ain’t over yet.
I smell a another political crisis coming in Greece. Don’t forget that Syriza has a alliance with staunchly anti-austerity party ANEL.
Regardless of what anyone thinks Tsipras had an obligation to fulfill the mandate given him by electors and he folded. As early as a few days ago he looked Greeks in the eye and told them that he wouldn’t accept continuing austerity and then folded like a cheap deck of cards.
Ain’t over by a long shot.
And Phil, don’t underestimate the implications of a Grexit on many levels.
$NYHL highest since July 2014. In the words of Elder “…a herd of eager bulls are chasing its shares…”.
$NYAD to new high.
What is the odd that the market goes higher from here?
Here is the Elder book and the chapter on $NYHL, starting page 194.
Click to access !EXCELLENT%20BOOK%20Elder_,_Alexander_-_Trading_for_a_Living.PDF
Last week I said to expect a low on Friday 20th. That was correct.
My analysis last week was right but incomplete. My mantra is that there are multiple forces at work and you need to analyze them all.
And I missed one of them : Neptune. Solar activity is driven by the big 4. This is not astrology; this is science.
The weakness I saw in the market marked the top of 3 of 5. Like all momentum indicators, natural forces tend to peak in W3. And w5 should show divergences.
So : natural forces indicate march 5 as an important low. My gravity indicator identifies feb 26 as a key date. This is when the sun conjuncts Neptune (or earth opposite in a HC view). Thursday will also give a GC Mars-Saturn trine; a very bearish indicator and HC Venus square Jupiter (=top) and Mercury inconjunct Mars.
HC Mercury changes latitude n–>s on 24, with a 3 day shock window. The north node will cross silvers 72 degr harmonic on 26. And HC Neptune is about to cross the Vertex axis, with Vertex,Earth,Moon and Part of Fortune all soon to be conjunct in Virgo. South node, Uranus, Mars and Andromeda all in Aries, so a very unbalanced HC zodiac.
Jupiter is by far the most influential outer planet. But the all have an impact.
So feb 26 will be the start of the decline and could mark the high for 2015. Last week was very quiet, as could be expected from a 4 of 5. Next few days 5 of 5 of 5 etc.
In a 5 of 5 everybody is convinced the trend will last forever. So I hope you all say I’m wrong with my bearish view, as that would prove my point.
Tension is building. Market forces are extremely weak. Volume keeps declining.
Thursday the big bang.
Thanks Andre. I won’t claim to be able to grasp much of that, but my view is that virtually every bear has capitulated to the idea of markets marching higher, and that’s often when matters turn the other way.
Let’s see if further weakness in oil prices drags sentiment and markets back down.
Thanks.
You are right; When there is nobody left to sell, what’s left to buy? I have more confirmation than I show, so I don’t make my statements lightly – especially when they are so bold. Time will tell.
Bears?……..what’s a bear???……
You know what they say….”markets top on positive news”………it’s hard to find a negative article at present, if at all. Just about everyone is now convinced DOW 20k, SPX 2.5k and new all time highs in the Comp are dead certs.
Thanks, Andre. Mercury end of conjunction usually marks tops with 20 td of weakness so based upon that alone now to Mid March could be down. Fully short at the moment so unless I am stopped out by unseasonal, and counter lunar chord strength next week maybe will make a few dollars. Really appreciate your refinement of your gravity work including planetary input factors.
A bit about the mercury max cycle (gc).
This cycle started jan 14th and ends feb 24. shock window 3 days. This confirms the 26 high.
The next mercury max cycles runs until may 7th (+/- 3). This confirms the early may low that I expect.
For the record, my feb 2 low was exact to the date. The high on 13 was right as far as direction is concerned but a bit early. Not by much as most of the rise had been done by then. My call for the 20 low was exact to the date. So people having doubts about my forecasts are invited to consider these facts. Or post your own forecast weekly if you think you can do better than this.
Bulls just climbed another wall of worry called Greece and the result is another ATH. This is so classic.
Futia’s Darvas Box target is SPX 2,200. David Larew’s Diamond Breakout now target 2,214.
Me. I don’t know, but the internals say HOLD LONG while I am constantly on the look out for the next (seemingly) unresolvable surprise and take profit.
I rather buy the panic bottoms that come along from time to time.
Newt, Ya think investors are getting a little carried away with the ATH thing?
In 3 months the SPX has added exactly 35 pts!………..WOW YIPPEE.
Meanwhile Trannies has failed to make new highs despite drastically lower oil prices.
Oh and the Greek wall ain’t scaled yet. Like I said earlier Syriza had a clear mandate to end austerity. Something that Fiday’s talks thus far have failed to do.
Tsipras may yet surprise. It would not shock me to learn that behind closed doors in the following days their coalition partners threaten to pull support for the coalition if there are not any steps toward ending austerity.
A very interesting few days ahead. I will say it again, this ain’t over yet.
Judging by the language today from the Greek PM the list of reforms will be rejected on Monday, EZ will slap the Greeks down to fall in line.
Total compliance or else!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31564846
Dangerous time when you play that game with a country that has nothing to loose.
I feel an agreement will be reach with much hatred, but it won’t be Monday night, it will go to the wire.
Personally I think the Germans are way too harsh, what if they was dealing the Golden Dawn party in Greece?
Europe needs to to take a few steps back to go forward. It’s natures way of evolution with a tiny bit of pain thrown in.
You (humanity) cannot for-see a perfect infinite path, but you will know about it when you fall over arse over tit. Then the pain of redirection is so much more.
History will repeat again and again.
Heliocentric astrology,
A little intermezzo about HC astro.
I have found HC astro to be very useful (HC hard aspects are reliable cit’s) but no astro I read uses the HC zodiac. So I have to do this myself.
This gives me the liberty to include objects that I think are useful :
1) The galactic center; the black hole in the center of our galaxy
2) Polaris; the true north point of our galaxy
3) Andromeda; our neighbor galaxy
4) Vertex, the third or electrical angle
5) Part of fortune/Fortuna; described as :The Part of Fortune lies the same distance in longitude from the Ascendant as the Moon lies from the Sun.
So now I get aspects that nobody sees. I have to do research to find what correlates with market behavior.
An example of what I see is : Saturn is inconjunct Polaris and inconjunct Andromeda, with an orb <1. Knowing Saturn is a very slow mover this configuration is very rare. And Uranus opposite Vertex is also very rare. Saturn also squares Fortuna. And Pluto is square the nodal axis. All heliocentric.
A great thing about the HC zodiac is that you can see where the big 4 are in relation to the sun, Right now Jupiter is on its way to a square with Saturn later this year. Neptune and Uranus are on the other side of the sun. As J+S account for 80% of gravitational force (if all 4 = 100%), the sun must currently be pulled out of the center of mass.
I will analyze the zodiac every week, to learn. Rest assured that my forecasts are supported by tested techniques. I just want to stay open to new techniques that can make the forecast even more firm.
Andre’,
Couple of questions for clarification. (1) “mercury max cycle (gc)”, I assume that gc is geocentric, hc is heliocentric? What are you including in the max cycle – is it the mercury retro period plus the shadow period of mercury? (2) In using the Vertex, do you assign a birth time of day, or use when the sun is on the Ascendant, or is the time of day not that important. It’s been awhile since I examined it from a trading perspective, but as I recall, the Vx would rapidly move from the MC to the IC across the Descendant depending on the hour of the day/night. (3) same question for The Part of Fortune as #(2) above, do you use a day specific time, sun on Asc,…I believe the angular position changes dramatically throughout the day, as well as from day to day at same time. (4) I sense you like to have a theoretical basis for considering angular relationships on market, so do you have any thoughts on why these angular relationships would work in the markets (I realize that to a certain extent it doesn’t matter, if it provides some level of correlation – that’s sufficient, just curious)? Thanks in advance. BTW, fwiw, I have the time period from Feb 17 to Mr 3 as most interesting, with focal date being Tu Feb 24.
SC
Steve;
1) Yes; gc is geo, hc is helio.
2) I do use the shadow date but I see it as an extention. The Mercury max cycle – as the Venus max cycle – are bounded by elongation extremes (east/west). But the shadow date extends to early march; nice.
3) No, I don’t use Fortuna and Vertex intraday. I just use them as additional reference points.
4) I like astro but I have one handicap; I am too rational. So I thought about orientation points. In the universe, another galaxy is a ‘natural’ orientation. Within our galaxy, the center (galactic center) and the real north (Polaris) seem natural to me. Using 3 diagonals, one representing gravity, one magnetism and one electricity also make sense in my limited mind. I don’t see anybody else doing this analysis, so this is new territory for me. I have to test these things to see what works. But I am a bit overwhelmed. I chose Polaris and Andromeda like I said.
And now Saturn – not the most insignificant of them all- makes and almost exact inconjunction to both. So the configuration is symmetrical. All with orbs <1.
You tell me; can this be a coincidence? I find that hard to believe. And it coincides with the hc Mars-Uranus conjunction, the tightening J-S square, the sun-jupiter opposition and the upcomming sun-Neptune conjunction. All within just a few weeks. That is special.
Want some geocentric arguments? Jupiter turns direct march 6. Saturn turns retrograde march 14. In GC astro, approaching a station means a slow down. So Jupiter and Saturn are standing still. Both. Knowing they make 20 year cycles together, what are the chances the become stationary with 8 days apart?
And congratulations on your timing; I am just 2 days behind; 26/5.
Hope I answered all your questions.
looks like Greece got a new life line, will be interesting to see if there is some sell on the news, nasdaq is approaching 5000 after 15 years, the summation index is nowhere near its all time highs and has been making lower highs and lower lows the last 6 months, we are slowly but surely headed towards some kind of blow off top i reckon.
“Spring tides reach the peak of an 18-and-a-half year cycle on Saturday” [today].
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-south-west-wales-31557868
Turning point on the markets or coincidence?
Not coincidence BillB.
That tidal cycle is very closely assaciated with the lunar declination (nodal) cycle of 18.6 years. The slight difference is that the ocean tides also depend on syzygy (alignment of earth sun and moon viewed from above), perigee, eclipse cycle and perihelion.
The lunar declination cycle reaches its extreme during September 2015, but the tidal extreme is earlier because earth is closest to the sun on 2 January.
There is some evidence of shorter 9 and 6 year cycles in the tidal cycle, with the 9 year one being the more dominant one. The previous two peaks of that 9 year cycle were 1974 and 1881, with the midpoint being 1928 (this is when the 6 year one dominates). The next such midpoint will be 2020.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TBT&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=4&id=p68284822133&a=337816926&r=1424557477957&cmd=print
classic textbook technical trading……
Funny how sleeping on things brings clarity. My HC zodiac analysis combines great with everything else I see. So this is how I understand it now.
1) Overall the trend is down, as is consistent with John’s analysis, the apo/peri cycle and the HC Saturn/Jupiter square that is tightening severely now.
2) So, we would expect a motive wave down to start with, a 5-wave.
3) March 20th promises to bring a lot of volatility with the equinox, the total solar eclipse and the moon wobble.
I have maintained for some time I see a low early May. That should be the end of w1 down.
This means that march 5 will not bring the march low. It will be a low, but just the first one. We will see a retrace into the eclipse to spark a w3 of 1 down into early april around the end of the wobble period. Then In april a retrace (w4) into mid april and finally a w5 down into early may 5-10.
This coincides perfectly with the Mercury max cycle that I wrote about above (and inspired by Richard Nolle), But most importantly : HC Jupiter and Saturn are in a tightening square. This square now gets a huge activation by the inconjunctions with Polaris and Andromeda I mentioned earlier.
Time-wise, a firm low later in March fits much better than the march 5 low.
So, next week the last leg up and I expect an ending diagonal as I have tidal inversions on Monday and Wednesday, bringing volatility. The swift decline on Thursday is consistent with the diagonal break-out.
The eclipse as start of w3 also makes sense. High volatility fits better with the nature of W3 than w4.
So, overall my outlook hasn’t changed; we are down into early may as first move down. It’s just that the early may low is less important than I thought. It will be a low alright, but not the march low. Up into the eclipse and then the slide into April.
Next weekend I’ll give the exact dates for this new cycle structure.
Cheers,
André
So if I understand correctly. W1 into March 5th. W2 into spring Equinox and down from there into May?
FWIW, April 27th is huge. 100% time extension from SPX 2000 highs to 2007 highs, and big fibbo pivot from 1932 to 1982 to 4.27, plus a lot of short term timing.
My bet is 4.27 low, 5.9 W.2 low into a Sep 28 2015 final high
My gravity indicator gives april 26th with an local extreme low reading. This should correlate with a high- from my perspective the high of w4.
Bradley gives a high 24/25, a Sun/Mercury aspect 28 and a venus/mars aspect 29. Taking in consideration +/- 2-3 days around these dates makes the high on 26 likely.
Sopriscap,
March 5 is 1 of 1 down, w2 of 1 into equinox up, w3 of 1 down into early April (8/10 ?). Then w4 of 1 up into end of April to leave some time for w5 of 1 into early may.
So your April 27th could fit in nicely with this schedule. I really need next week to do my own analysis on the most likely cycle turn dates.
btw; McHugh expects a period of intense volatility from ‘mid March into mid April’. That also fits nicely into this structure,
Picked this from a site :http://swingcycles.blogspot.nl/2015/02/feb-15-2015-weekly-outlook.html#comment-form
“The Economic Cycle Research Institute, which maintains its forward looking Weekly Leading Index to peer around the corner of the economic cycle and divine what lies ahead, has fallen to levels not seen in three years — a level that, outside of the current economic expansion, has only been seen seven other times since the 1970s.
Here’s the rub: Six of these marked the start of recessions.”
Also, Merriman has an indicator on his site with values > 120 indicating a high risk for a reversal. Currently 127.
andre.. i’m confused. you said feb-20 was a low, agree it was a low in the AM but then another v-shaped recovery took SPX to new ATH (probably due to greek news).. and now you are saying market goes higher into thrusday? what if greek news gets reversed, is there a chance fridays ralley could be reversed and SPX continues to head down into march?
Crazyworld,
February 20 was a low, as I said. Now I say the next high will be Thursday 26. Then we start the decline into march. So I don’t understand the confusion; after a low comes a high.
But Monday and Thursday are the strongest turn days of the week. Tuesday a little less strong.
So the Friday low will likely bring a Monday high, a Tuesday higher low and a Thursday high.
I said earlier I expect an ending diagonal to form. This means early next week some up and down before one last leg up into Thursday to end the diagonal. Then a swift decline.
My vision is that news follows the market. Sure; anything can happen. But my expectation is for the final CIT to be Thursday. No guarantees 😉
andre… thank you for the clarification
New post is out, thanks all