Whilst Friday’s action in the stock markets was not decisive, it looks promising for a reversal, so let’s see how this week begins.
1. Insider selling consistent with peaks:
2. Euphoria model now up to +0.65:
3. Latest Economic Surprises US:
4. IPO characteristics consistent with peaks:
5. From Kent’s link, US small caps peaked at the beginning of 2002:
6. And that fits with the second peak of solar cycle 23:
7. The anticipated smoothed solar maximum at the end of 2013 and the February 2014 monthly sunspots spike is very similar to the solar peak at the start of 2000, and the monthly candles in the Nasdaq 100 show a similar pattern. A series of green candles into the end of 1999/2013, a red January candle, up again in February and now a potential March reversal:
The reason it is not as supersized as the 2000 peak is due to the difference in demographics, but we see a similar monthly RSI peak and by various measures the current high compares to the top of 2000 (such as margin debt, sentiment and certain valuations).