Whilst Friday’s action in the stock markets was not decisive, it looks promising for a reversal, so let’s see how this week begins.
1. Insider selling consistent with peaks:
Source: ShortSideOfLong
2. Euphoria model now up to +0.65:
Source: Barrons/Citi
3. Latest Economic Surprises US:
Source: Citi
4. IPO characteristics consistent with peaks:
Source: Sentimentrader
5. From Kent’s link, US small caps peaked at the beginning of 2002:
Source: ClaassenResearch
6. And that fits with the second peak of solar cycle 23:
Underlying Source: Solen
7. The anticipated smoothed solar maximum at the end of 2013 and the February 2014 monthly sunspots spike is very similar to the solar peak at the start of 2000, and the monthly candles in the Nasdaq 100 show a similar pattern. A series of green candles into the end of 1999/2013, a red January candle, up again in February and now a potential March reversal:
The reason it is not as supersized as the 2000 peak is due to the difference in demographics, but we see a similar monthly RSI peak and by various measures the current high compares to the top of 2000 (such as margin debt, sentiment and certain valuations).
I can not repeat what I said at the lows last Monday as my charts of the financials, which had been lagging, gave buy signals across the board. The rest of the week they pushed higher to reach the target line that has reversed price before…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAS&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=22&id=p02684400710&a=273488158&listNum=10
Thanks Slater
slater, so now that they’ve reached the target are you expecting them (and the rest of the market) to head south?
p- here is my JPM… At Monday’s low everything on my checklist said buy at lower red arrow…. target was whenever price hit upper line…. trade over. I TOO want a big sell across the board; I just can’t find it.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JPM&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p06775713578&a=339821686&listNum=12
p- I am looking for something specific… using the tools I always use I want to see sell signals on the daily and hourly charts in a concentrated time frame in hundreds of stocks.The INDU is a gift to traders in this regard;if you find 25 or more of the 30 with that type of sell in place…. you have a pretty good idea that a larger sell is commencing….
thanks for your replies to my question.
John, can you detail your view on precious metals. Did I read correctly in your above chart that you believe silver/gold peaked in 2011? Thanks
By demographics and solar cycles, I expect precious metals to make their secular peak circa 2025. I see the 2011-2013 bear as a pause in the secular bull, with 2011 marking the top of a cyclical bull. I expect that correction now to be over, but they may be susceptible to sell of a bit if stock market waterfall declines erupt, due to forced liquidations. Thereafter, I expect strong momentum in precious metals.
Slater i’m so glad to see you posting here…………i don’t understand why pug asked you to leave u were a great asset to his site……………and really appreciate you charts…………
Insecurities maybe? When people interact with each other sometimes one party developes biases or just simply developes a dislike toward an individual even if the form of communcation/contact is via written word. Who knows?
We are a complex species.
p-Thanks.. I really enjoyed my time at pug’s and did my best to contribute.In retrospect, I wish I had been more judicious in the extent I posted and I think it was best for everyone that I left…. Continue to think that pug is the best at what he does.
vix failed to make a lower low on this most recent top in the s and p, so a sell off is in the works, do expect precious metals to go down as well if the deflationary scenario pans out, gold definitely headed to 1000 i reckon.
All the work I do tells me gold made its low last year (in late June, at $1179.40), retested it in December ($1181), and is now beginning a powerful uptrend which will take it to new highs. Check out the excellent fractal work done by Erik Swarts at Market Anthropology, such as this recent article: http://www.marketanthropology.com/2014/02/back-to-bull-market-highway-for-silver.html
I urge you to familiarize yourself with his methodology and check his track record; he continues to impress me with the soundness of his thinking and his obvious prescience. He called the top in silver in 2011, for example, to within two weeks, and went long again very close to the retest of the late-June lows from late last year. My fractal work is in agreement with his.
read the weekly blog from Hussman funds, very good
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140310.htm
People want to associate the insane 90’s profits as normal, when they are more realistically the exception.
Good work again John.
Thanks John
DAX and Emerging markets have been falling off the plate and im expecting US to follow,
Thanks all