A lack of concrete action from Draghi yesterday and pro-risk sold off accordingly, making for an appropriate full moon low. However, there was a little recovery into the close and this has been continued this morning (Europe time), suggesting the markets were holding up on more than Draghi’s promise. Gold is back into its large triangle meaning the breakout, for now, was premature. By lunar phase and geomagnetism the pressure is upward for pro-risk as of next week, so for me it is back to watching and waiting. My focus remains on leading indicators which I see as crucial to market fortunes now. ECRI for the US today and then the next 2 weeks give us the latest Conference Board and OECD leading indicators for key countries around the globe.
There is an interesting opposition of indicators for equities. First AAII sentiment says the stock market should go up from here.
But second, Rydex involvement in the market says the market should go down from here.
Yet, third, Wall Street strategists equity allocation recommendation says the market should go up from here.
And fourth and last, open interest shows that large specs and commercials are short and small specs long, which can be read as smart v dumb money, suggesting the market should decline from here.
Source: Cotpricecharts / Bill L
It’s rare to find normally reliable indicators at such odds with each other. What does it mean? I noted that this current rally isn’t a run-of-the-mill rally. Small caps are underperforming – although Quant Edges and Sentimentrader have now both run studies which suggest this is historically actually bullish for the market ahead rather than bearish. I suggest the market action will morph into something more typical – either a full involvement rally or a regular decline. But which is it to be? Putting my wider views aside (secular and solar supporting a bullish resolution) I would suggest the opposition of the indicators above suggests the market may struggle to move decisively one way or the other – at least until one of these indicators starts to shift the other way. So I will be watching for what shifts and which way.
I am on hols next week so there will be no posts and no model updates until w/c 13 August.