Some big moves in commodities, China stocks, Japan, and a change in character in US equities whereby nothing is currently working for the bulls. It begs the question where we are in the topping process, specifically is the market going to fall apart from here, or do we yet get another rally back up to a lower high.
Dow Jones World looks like this:
Source: Stockcharts
Like other recent major peaks, it shows a topping price pattern with negative divergences on the second higher high. We can pinpoint the first peak in the topping process as June/July last year:
Junk bonds, oil and financial conditions all peaked out then too. The second peak in nominal equities was May 2015, making for a 10 month topping process. That’s not dissimilar in duration to 2000 and 2007.
If we look at near term clues, the triple confluence of spikes in CPCE, Trin and Vix:Vxv to current levels (specifically all three together) hasn’t been seen since the breakdown in 2011.
Their spiking could represent a near term low for equities, from which they get a decent bounce now. Or, they could represent the first stage of a large fear move, like in 2011. Right now the SP500 is just 4% off its high, whilst in 2011 it made a 19% correction.
If we look at the bigger picture, all major indices around the world are now off their highs, most topping out in May or June. Is this about news out of Greece and China? They are providing a narrative for short term buffeting, but we can see equities have been in a typical topping process for a year. The under the hood peak was around last year’s solar max, as it was in 2000. Then as now stocks continued to levitate for several months following, whilst internals deteriorated, and the writing was on the wall. We know that allocations, sentiment, valuations and leverage have all been at saturation levels for some time. I suggest that the worries about Greece and China have initiated a trickle of bulls over to the bear camp. At some point this will become a rush and that’s when panic selling will make for swift, harsh falls. If you don’t believe that, then this will be the first time from such levels of leverage, valuations, sentiment and allocations that we don’t see a crash period averaging around 6 weeks taking around 35% off stock prices.
A fairly common topping pattern at major peaks in the past was primary distribution – peak (shake out) – second chance peak – crash, normally lasting around 6-8 months, like this:
Source: Financial-Spread-Betting
If we think of it as less of a roadmap and more of similar waves of crowd psychology playing out, it’s the ‘second chance’ which is my focus, namely are we though that or is it still to come?
If we are through it, then the market ought to quickly fall apart here, with any up days quickly engulfed. That’s kind of what we have been seeing the last 2 weeks. Plus, the heavy falls in China and commodities could be the initation of wider heavy falls. On the flip side, those spikes in near term indicators could provide a bottom here for stocks from which to rally back up into mid or late July, making a second chance peak ahead.
So what am I doing? Attacking but with stops (short Dow, RUT, IBB, long gold). If we are post second chance then there is no time to lose. The stock market should rapidly fall apart with increasingly big lurches downwards. On the other hand, if we have a second chance rally back up, I don’t want to be too exposed and save my big positioning for a little longer.
Lastly, might all this be way off and we are still safely in a bull market? Well, financial conditions just turned negative. The Ted spread is now higher than it was when stocks tanked in 2011. US economic surprises are still negative and ECRI leading indicators are flirting with zero. Earnings season starts this week with predicted 4.5% yoy falls in both earnings and revenues. With sentiment, allocations, valuations and leverage so extreme for such a prolonged period now, even a safe bull market is more likely to see a sharp correction here, something like 1987 or 2011. But I don’t believe that: the case is much stronger for a fully fledged bear market, within which Biotech retraces its whole move of the last 2.5 years.
S O L A R C Y C L E S 
Thank you John for your posts, which provide common sense views on what is happening. I wish you luck with your shorts, I would be adding to shorts on any bounces now, especially the weaker indices such as the Dax and FTSE.
Canny traders will play both ways I imagine, but I hope you and many bears reap some nice rewards in the coming weeks.
Me, I’ll be loading up on physical gold if a washout occurs. I have a date in my diary, the end of August, which someone here (Kent I think) highlighted in January as a key cyclical turn for gold, perhaps the end of the 4 year bear.
Gone short Dow on this bounce. Let’s hope its just a pause in the move down and not me shorting at the start of the resumption of the bull!
Uh oh!
Thank you John..nick
John H, firstly thank you for your continued well researched posts….but more importantly your ability to lay out both sides of the arguments.
For what it’s worth, I do believe we have ‘topped’ out. According to my EW counts, I believe, we are in the 4th of a 1st wave down. Now the 2nd wave was an Expanded Flat and for a while the 4th wave looked like it was going to be too. However on closer analysis I believe the 4th wave is going to be quite a large triangle which will probably take another 4-6 weeks to complete.
Within the triangle I believe yesterday’s low was wave ‘B’. We are currently working through wave ‘C’. In the very near i.e. today, through to early next week I see wave ‘a’ of ‘C’ completing at the open and we start wave ‘b’ of ‘C’ heading down. On the DJIA I would expect it to reach around 17,600, before wave ‘c’ of C will take us all the way up to 17,800.
That’s the current short term count that I’m playing with. I believe it will cause maximum grief to most participants due to the quite large swings.
G’Luck to all.
Oops meant to say….once the 1st wave down is complete, that’s when your ‘second chance’ 2nd wave will occur.
I’ve got serious ‘typewritis’ today!! Not 4-6 weeks but 4-6 days. Sorry all.
With today’s opening salvo….scrap what I said about a down up for a ‘C’. Right now the jury is out as to where next.
‘IF’ a triangle is till operative then expect a ‘very swift’ drop towards yesterday’s lows but NOT exceeding them.
Yes. Doing the same. Good luck, John.
Bob Janjuah’s view (needs a free registration to access link):
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/07/09/2134076/this-is-nuts-whens-the-flash-crash/
Just some of Nomura’s, reliably gloomy, Bob ‘the bear’ Janjuah. In case Greece and China hadn’t hammered your spirit enough:
‘Lastly, in terms of my outlook for markets into end Q3/early Q4, I think a considerable risk is building of some form of mini crash. Of course, anything can happen in the very short term. But over the course of Q3 and into Q4, I think we may see a significant short, sharp but large (15% to 20%) correction. I note with extreme interest that when I talk to clients they are very keen to ignore the risks of Greece contagion both in terms of global markets and particularly about what recent events (and what is to follow) will mean for private sector confidence across Europe. I also note that a significant majority of people I talk to in markets are impressed that US equities have held up so well (so far), and so are long and looking to add; and pretty much the same majority are unimpressed with the weak (so far) rally in core govvie, and therefore are short/looking to get short. My concern is not just that markets are mis-pricing Greece contagion, mis-pricing deflation, mis-pricing street liquidity and mis-pricing the (now negative) trend in corporate (US) revenues and earnings (Q2 earnings season is upon us and may well show year-over-year earnings down 5%/5%+). My concerns are also that markets are way too optimistic about global growth (especially the US), about China, about the ability of policymakers to do anything new and/or effective to alter things meaningfully to the upside, and in particular I think market participants are increasingly positioned for risk-on perfection. I do not think it will take much in the form of data disappointments (macro-economic and/or earnings) and “suddenly elevated” concerns with policymakers to trigger a significant weakening in risk assets.’
He has had that view for years and I agree he will be right at some point but if you had shorted when he first became bearish you would be bankrupt by now! DAX back in gear now. Let’s see if it drops next week or breaks to the upside leading the way to 12,000 and above. Still got a short on the dow from 17720 but will close out if there is a break to the upside.
Have to disagree. What I’ve read of his stuff in the past few years has been pretty much spot on, certainly no perma-bear as far as market action calls were concerned.
I disagree. Bob is a muppet. I clearly remember when the S&P was at 1800 and he said this was the top. Then it ran up to 1875 and he said central banks were pumping things up so the absolute max would be 1950 before huge declines. And then it just carried on and I found less and less articles about his predictions as he quietly shut his face as realizing his reputation was going down the drain. John hasn’t been right over the last 1.5 years but he has some fantastic evidence to back his theory and its posted for all to see. Bob just makes wild predictions and I rarely see any meaningful backup. I followed him a while ago and lost money and would have lost more had I not stopped listening to his advice! By the way DAX at 11400….an 800 point recovery from the lows. So much for its heading to 10,000….it’s only 100 points away from my 11,500 initial target! Greek deal Monday and we will be blasting through 12,000 in no time. No deal and bang we will go back to 10,600 or below. my view is there will be a slight complication and we finish near 11,000 by Friday next week.
Kent, can you point me to the post GM is referencing? Tks in advance.
Eclectic, did you mean Krish? I am not sure what you are referencing.
Again a lack of follow through on yesterday’s weakness
(so far today).
This price action characterised much of last year
and it’s continuing.
The DJT is the only crumb of comfort for those looking
for lower levels.
This story is old but it goes on.
‘The DJT is the only crumb of comfort for those looking
for lower levels.’
Have you even read the post Phil?
You’re a piece of work.
That’s an amazing statement.
Is it the faith in the fed like certain others here?
Eh?
i was responding to phil. it slotted me underneath your comment
I hope for your sake Phil and all other bulls that I will be proven incorrect. Either way, it is going to be ONE WILD RIDE going into the Sept time frame.
Good Luck
Phil, I suspect it’s part of the triangle scenario that I outlined above. Almost Everyone is going to be ‘thrown’ by this set of moves. However it will resolve finally to the downside ‘briefly’ before providing a ‘second chance’.
That’s the count I’m working with currently.
It’s a shame there isn’t a time stamp to posts, as I reckon Phil might have nailed today’s top tick with his comment, nice job Phil.
Short term support until Wednesday. Then some serious down.
I agree. I am long at the moment. Perched like an eagle on the tree top, waiting to go short for the rest of July thru Sept.
Good luck every one !
I am looking for a18 – 22 % down draft in the markets over the next several weeks. Waiting for gold to drop to new lows.
Huh?!? Dave, you are expectin a 18-22% drop….but you are long ‘at the moment’? How do you reconcile that, please?
Andre,
So what do you see in your cards,
Short term support till July 15 th and after that the big drop til august 10th.. after that a bounce till September 21 and after that the second bigger drop ( crash into oktober)?
I think we will see a big drop from here till July 15 after that second chance till July 23 and after that a big drop into August 10-16th bounce again into septmber dont have a date yet and after that a big drop in oktober
Thanks in advance
John.
Market will roll over around Wednesday. Then I think a decline into august 9/10. Then abc up into september 21-24. Then a more crash like move down. There will be ups and downs but basically it will be down into early 2016 to start with.
Thank you verry much for your answer
Here in Europe we have our fake party over Greece it’s a shame democracy is losing ground specially for the pensioners in Greek but it won’t stop there Europe is falling appart the Euro does not work.
There a 2 links on zerohedge that tell te story verry well
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-09/euro-skeptic-william-hague-i-was-right-1998-and-i-am-right-today
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-09/global-war-pensions-gets-personal-scenes-dying-nation
John (Holland),
How do you think the pensioners will fare in a drachma devaluation?
Democracy needs some help.
I have the same feeling every day the market starts high and is ending low..
I think we will go down as soon as the greek party poopers are gone the market will drop… July 15 till July 20 and than go up again till July 23… (mercury conjunct sun) and after that the same like in 2011 down till arround August 8-10
Purvez, I am neither a bull nor a bear. LOL I just take what the market will give me. At this time line, I am just doing swing trades for the moment. Waiting for Mr Market to play his hand, to suck all the bulls back into the market. LOL Than down we gooooooo. If perhaps I am wrong with this scenario, I will cut loose my long and start layering the shorts.Further along the linear time frame ( Sept 30th ) is Mr Martin Armstrong Major cycle coming into play. It is looking like a major Low for stocks and major high in the bond market. Purvez, I hope that explains my position at the moment.
Thanks for the explanation Dave.
Personally if I was expecting an 18-22% down draft then I would not want to be long….but that’s just me.
Wisth ALL WELL with your trades.
LOL,Being in the market long or short keeps me focused, anticipating 2 or 3 moves ahead like a chess player.
Dave, please may I ask, are you ‘perpetually’ in the markets? I’ve been thinking for some time that since the markets are like ‘ocean waves’ (never ceasing) one should consider being in the market ‘all the time’.
I’m currently in the process of trying that out with a miniscule position to see if I can ‘make it work’.
I’ll post here if I have even a modicum of success….otherwise you’ll know what happened.
Thanks, John. Excellent post that clearly summarized both sides of the coin. I agree with Andre’ high next week then sizable down draft into early August with possible continuation into September. I am long US equities at moment, and will hold til New Moon open, unless price jumps higher before then. This is a brief countertrend trade, as I believe past New Moon should be an convergence of weakness.
Hi Dave;
It explains it, but I’m afraid I’m with Purvez on this one….
Something about “picking up nickels in front of a steam-roller” and all….
Hopefully you have a good system, and we can all piggy-back on it, but…..seems to me the market tone is a-changing….
Hate to be premature here – and I have been plenty of times – but “Sell rallies and be VERY careful with any longs” market mode seems to be taking hold….
Which is the opposite of how it’s been……seemingly forever…. :-O
And on that note, I was able to get out of my EDC long with a 3% profit – after 2 huge swings in 2 days – so thank you, Mrs. Market, for this mornings rally…
Got lucky….
And good to know a market will go up….for a bit….if you ban “selling”….
But that begs the question….
If you can’t sell, how do you get your money back?
Is that where we are in the markets now?? Yikes!
Hi Barry, I will address your questions after the close. Thks
Hi Dave.. No worries… In reading my note, I realized I started asking questions to no one in particular, so don’t take any time answering any of the questions in the bottom part of my note… Got off on a rant there a bit… LOL
But if you’ve got a quick-triggering swing system, I’m all ears….
Always interested in anything that can improve what I do myself…
Thanks again…
Barry
Bob Hoye’s latest thoughts:
http://biiwii.com/wordpress/2015/07/09/pivotal-events-50/
In my books, we are about 20-30 points (on the DJIA) away from the end of the ‘D’ wave of the triangle. Thereafter we can expect some very choppy action upwards for the E wave over the next 3-4 days.
That sort of ties in with Valley and Andre’s Wednesday high before a ‘sizable drop’ call.
I love it when a plan comes together!!
When I wrote the above we were at DJIA 17550.
The eurozone has given Greece until Thursday to present new proposals to secure a deal with creditors, and has called a full EU summit for Sunday.
It should be an interesting Monday morning trading.
Dave just brought it to my notice that my ‘D’ & ‘E’ waves scenario may be a LOT sooner than I originally thought.
If Sunday’s ‘summit’ meeting rejects the Greek proposals then we will be heading down very fast. Ugh trading with ‘political’ news is the PITS.
Scratch that ANY NEWS!!
purvez, wonder if I could ask a favour please?
I’d be interested in an EW perspective on gold’s bear since lat 2011, out of curiosity.
http://screencast.com/t/GRCtPs2DY
Thanks in advance.
Hi GM, I’ve broadly laid out where I believe Gold is in EW Terms. Main thing to note is that it is in a Cyclical Bear within a Secular Bull. However timescales matter when one makes statements like that.
Here’s my chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/oZ0LP2Bo/
Wave (B) will go at least to wave 4 of (A) and most probably higher.
Wave (C) down’s target varies from (A) = (C) from wherever (B) ends to either .61 of (A) or 1.61 of (A).
With all EW counts there are alternatives but this is currently my favourite one.
Before I get shot down by all the Gold Bugs….I’m just the messenger here LOL.
Thanks purvez. I find it hard to see gold’s bear lasting into 2016, but time will tell.
http://www.latimes.com/world/e…
“The Greek government on Thursday delivered a new package of economic reforms to European creditors that Athens media said included raising taxes and the retirement age — two issues leftist government officials had `said were “red lines” they wouldn’t cross.”
“Mega reported after the Tsipras Cabinet endorsed the new plan that its pension reform would push the retirement age to 67 and dock any early retirees 15% if those with 40 years or more in government service take the option of retiring at age 62.
The government also plans to withhold more tax from state salaries and pensions and to deduct a 6% healthcare premium from retirees’ checks, Mega reported.
The program of planned spending cuts and tax increases also pledges to boost the VAT on restaurant bills to 23% from 13% and end the special tax exemptions for Greek island businesses. The reforms are predicted to generate at least $13.2 billion in revenue over the next two years to service the bailout debt.”
Purvez, that was meant for your comment above.
Hi Dave yes I’ve been following along and shaking my head at what the Greeks are willing to let happen to them….just to stay in the Euro. They’ve sadly been brain washed to believe that without the Euro and the Eurozone they are ‘nothing’ as a nation.
Phil is right, Tsipras never stood a chance based on the platform he got elected on. I was hoping that he would at some point come back to the Greek people and say, look they are not backing down. Perhaps it’s time to change our direction and go our own way. Now THAT would be leadership.
Three red weekly candles on SPX? Not fodder for raconteurs?
A splash of green will give artistic durability for the continuance.
Not that it is really needed, but the dark moon is rising.
Nice pop:D
If you’re after some cheap gold, Mr Fibonacci could help you out:
http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/1081-gold-bottom.html
Time is always running out to buy cheap gold!
Only weeks left!.
It’s like a shop with a permanent closing down sale.
Always another revised/updated chart when price
action does not confirm.
Phil, that is why you don’t/can’t time gold.Accumulate when cheap, sell when it’s in the headlines.And bloody MA making ridiculous statements again.
“anybody that bought gold in 1980 and sold DOW is so far underwater”
Well anybody that bought gold 98/00 and sold DOW is miles in front and this is another opportinuty.
Who in hell buys and holds for 35 years anyway???……seriously the guy is a schmuck sometimes…….
Phil, you do make me laugh.
Yes, time is always running out, not just to buy cheap gold. (That’s why I’m off to the beach in an hour).
Yes, weeks til the bottom I reckon.
Not a permanent closing down sales, temporary!
It’s dangerous to have fixed views on anything, but I’ve been expecting a summer low for months, so your point is rather irrelevant.
JH, for what it is worth, I think China is in a different place vs the rest of the world. Ignoring China, we haven’t really started to crash. IBB is still above 50 SMA. GDX is at lows. Therefore, a second chance will come after an initial decline — the initial decline has barely started. That is how I am positioned ex-China.
How tight are your stops for this second chance?
The last 12 major price peaks in US stocks: breadth peaked an average 8.5 months before the nominal price peak. So our current pairing of July 2014 to May 2015 is in the zone.
Homing in on the last 2 peaks of 2000 and 2007 then our May 2015 has to be equivalent to Oct 2007 or August 2000, from which initial declines were 11% and 14% before a partial retrace rally back up.
The second chance peaks in 1987, 1929, 1989 and 2000 all occurred between 2 and 6 weeks after the main peak. If we look at the main US indices now, then the June rally back up, about 4 weeks after the May peak, looks to have been second chance. Like this:
It’s not perfect but it’s not going to be. All this stuff is just a guide and every peak is different.
Good points and I do agree.
Based on IBB, the peak is closer to 7/2015 which the broader market did not follow. I would suggest the analog from weak solar cycle 1973, and we are at 11/1973=7/2015. At that point, nifty made new highs while INDU was lagging for around 9M. (2nd chance in INDU) Every time is different, but 1973 had one down month, several months of whipsaw (2nd chance in Nifty?), and then waterfall in the later part of 1974.
In any case, not much different from what you are saying, because I am going to be short and take what the market gives. Like China, it might be that IBB tanks a lot more than SPX, and have more than one waterfall wave, whatever we choose to label them as.
I think about this 24/7, so please forgive me if it doesn’t make too much sense. I think this is my view:
If post-2nd chance is defined as a decline that will not see any support at the 200 SMA, then I agree that we are here now, just as it occurred in 1973.
If post-2nd chance is defined as the biggest/fastest waterfall of the crash, I think it is a gamble. Yes, 1929 and 1987 was spectacular, but we might have larger waves after the 3rd chance too. In 1990, the 2nd wave was bigger than the first — but yes, we can label 7/1990 as either 2nd chance based on Nikkei or 1st chance based on SPX. In 2000, the 9/2001 post-3rd chance wave was pretty spectacular too.
My view is that we will get a -30% to -40% drop in IBB, but -20% in SPX. This to me, will be a mild waterfall, unlike 1929 or 1987. At that point, central bankers will act, and I am not saying this to agree with Nicolas. The data does support this, with emergency meetings in the US on Jan 3rd 2001 and Jan 22nd 2008, and recently in China AFTER a -20% of the major index peak. This would be good for a bounce whether one months or several months.
1/3/2001: NDX +18.8%
1/22/2008: XLF +2.3%
1/23/2008: XLF +6.7%
7/9/15: SHCOMP +5.8%
7/10/15: SHCOMP +4.5%
My friend Simon Atkins, who does pretty accurate planetary weather forecasting based on the changes in electromagnetics hitting the earth says that we will have a peak in this energy shift or influx of electromagnetics into the Late September time frame. These energies have been ramping up and is the cause for a lot of the weather disturbances such as increased tornadoes, earth quakes, flooding, drought, etc. that we have seen this year. As this energy ramps up even more, he says that about 10 -15% of the population will start to loose it. We guess this is when the bigger crash (wave 3 of 3) will come – when many people are no longer able to hold onto their calm or sanity and will Panic!
If I can find his interview on this phenomenon, I will post it for anyone interested.
Mae, I think the effect is already beginning. Tspiras has totally lost the plot. He will get assassinated if he returns to Greece with the latest proposal a signed deal.
What was the the point of the referendum!!?
Allan
As far as I undersstand the referndum was about whether to accept the proposed bailout terms including austerity, privatisation, selling your kids futures for generations etc. If he comes back with even 90% of them still in place he hasn’t technically betrayed them, and the EU still get their money from generations of Greeks in the future.
Everyone’s a winner. Apart from Greeks. imho.
J
Might take a few months yet, but Greece will default. They might call it a restructure, but it’s coming.
Please, Mae – thanks.
Mae, thank you for communicating this interesting info. I have been contemplating on whether to bring this very subject on to this blog with some other major cycles converging into Late Aug Sept. This weekend I will forward that info here. As I mentioned on a previous post yesterday, it is going to be one wild ride going into the Sept time frame.
No doubt there will be many mentions of the NYSE short interest being at the highest level since the GFC. The link below shows the high level. However, curiously the author doesn’t mention how short interest actually increased over the course of 2008 as stocks were crashing.
What Syriza wanted was never available by remaining
in the Euro, as they were elected on a platform of
remaining in the common currency they were defeated
before they began.
Either they had to cave or leave, they chose the former,
and had no mandate to leave in any case.
Remaining in the Euro took precedence over ending austerity,
that is what it effectively came down to in the end.
Default, available at any time, with any currency.
Phil, tne proposal that Tsipras has put on the table is and that is going to the Greek parliment is harsher than the one that was rejected by referendum.
Not sure what in the hell their “so called” election manadate has to do with anything?
Their election platform was to end austerity, not to make it worse, which is exactly what Tsipras has just acheived.
Read last weeks proposal and then the current one. Absolutely absurd!
Syriza will be hung drawn and quatered before the end of next week if this goes through. Guarantee it.
I should know better, I used to pull my kids up for poor grammer, spelling etc
“Hanged drawn and quartered”
http://imgur.com/f0MiEJi 87 3 step falls below bottom of first step, after break of bottom of 1st step
http://imgur.com/su4YdbZ todays 3 step, needs to break 2039 area,bottom of 1st step 1815 area
that post needs to be edited should say “after break of bottom of 1st step”
feel free to edit it, should say ‘after break of bottom of 3rd step’
I think before being edited, it has to be translated into English….:D
http://imgur.com/f0MiEJi this is the 87 chart showing a 3 step pattern, after breaking the bottom of the 3rd step it dropped to bottom of the first step
http://imgur.com/XSHKOHL this is the same pattern and if played out the same way, it would find support somewhere below 1815
in todays world, many are struggling migrating to different countries trying to find a better life as many of our ancestors did,,…
hope no one was offended by something so trivial as poor diction
Thanks ammo. Understand it better now and yes very interesting indeed. Thanks for posting.
Pictures paint a thousand words, thanks for sharing those.
Many thanks
Is BTFD about to become STFB?
At least we now know why Varoufakis resigned suddenly. He was promptly told after the NO vote that it would be ignored.
One of the few politicians with any scruples and the only hope that Greece had.
I give up on Greece after this.
I’m pretty sure Nuland explained to him what would happen to his family if he didn’t
A Grexit will not be allowed
Allan, all you need to know about Greek politics is in this signature of their new finance chief
I don’t know whether you are joking or not.
A huge move in yields, the US 10 year nearing 2.40% again.
It will be interesting to see if this becomes a sell the news
event.
Currently it’s another example of downside being repelled,
just as it appears this is gathering traction.
Hi Purvez;
I’m assuming this would be the Wave “e” you were discussing earlier….
Do you have an idea of a terminal target for E?
TIA,
Barry
Barry I saw your post above after I’d written mine below. Looks like things will be a bit more delayed. More in line with Valley and Andre’s Wednesday call.
Today’s slight pop higher than yesterday’s top (so far) means that wave C of my suggested trianle for W4 didn’t end yesterday. In fact looking at the 5 min chart again there are now clear ‘abc’ waves within each of the bigger ABC waves. That is a much better following of Elliott rules.
If this follows suit for waves D & E then I think it will take through to next Wednesday before we see the next big drop. I’m guessing that the Greek shenanigans will play a part in the to / fro process.
Of course the whole triangle is invalidated if we go higher than 17816 (wave A high).
Thanks, Purvez…
As I type, we’re at 17733, so looks like we have our “window”….
Thanks again,
Barry
Initial short on XLF entered. First of up to 4 tranches to test the water. Stop above recent high. I think there is a good chance of some profit here if not stopped during what will undoubtedly be a volatile period….
imho
J
Here is an article for those who have an open mind for the coming times. As mentioned earlier, we are in for one WILD RIDE !!
acceleration and heightening of electromagnetic energy from the sun and other cosmic energies that will build especially from late August into late September that will cause, circa 23rd-24th September, what he describes as a ‘frequency shift’ in consciousness. [the current and ongoing earth-facing solar CME’s and the resultant geomagnetic storms here on Earth are certainly a real-time manifestation of this – see Laron’s recent post here for more.]
a resultant change in the pressure field on the planet’s already weakening magnetic shield whereby a higher incidence of seismic activity and extreme weather patterns is likely whereby he specifically forecasts,
a 9.0 magnitude earthquake occurring very close to Iran before the end of September that will cause what he calls a ‘planetary threat spin.’
a massive volcanic eruption on Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula late this year that will cause dramatic cooling in the Northern Hemisphere this coming winter and more especially the following winter of 2016/17.
a 6.9 magnitude earthquake occurring in Northern California before the end of September as a consequence of the continuing drought in Southern California which is recalibrating the tectonic plates as the water tables continue to deplete. He forecasts this with 80% confidence.
a major rise in floodings in the US this summer [the recent unprecedented flooding in Texas is one consequent example of this prediction bearing out]with a drought in parts of China [headlines here have been flood-related of late, but as this recent CCTV piece explains drought is certainly being experienced in some parts of China.]
returning to the accelerating energies and the frequency shift in consciousness, he foresees this having resultant effects on the mental functioning of some people, of financial markets and organizations to the extent that,
there’s going to be news events in July and especially into August where people cannot control their own thoughts that will lead to societal events where people ‘just lose it.’
some leaders of governments and corporations becoming hallucinogenic whereby they’re going to be imagining things that could lead to a “leader being taken away by the public because of this behavior.”
in step with the accelerating energies he foresees the Earth’s frequency (known as the Schumann Resonance – which historically rests at 7.83Hz but is currently estimated to have risen to 11Hz) rising even further to possibly as high as 13 or 14Hz by the end of September.
these accelerations leading to a 2-4 day period in the 3rd or 4th week of September whereby shops may be closed and governments becoming increasingly dysfunctional.
related to all of this, he strikingly predicts an intergalactic electromagnetic wave (which, he says, some equate to Planet X/Nibiru) that will arrive from another galaxy and sweep through the planet; this, he states, is instrumental to the raising of consciousness and it will consequently stun the world for a few days leading to between 10-17% of the population experiencing the aforementioned delusions and hallucinations.
the Northern Hemisphere experiencing the accelerating energies more due to the larger land mass and magnetics therein; he says the Southern Hemisphere is already experiencing this [at the time of broadcast] but it’s milder and stretched over a longer period of time.
the potential for further viral outbreaks as the frequencies pass through.
The Powers That Be (who are aware of all of this) seeking to capitalise, manipulate, suppress and control this frequency shift through structuring or adding in elements behind the natural events, be it more chemtrailing, weather warfare, more mind control through the use of technological weapons – all as a means of restricting consciousness awakening.
further, in response to a caller, Jade Helm is discussed in more detail (it’s mentioned in passing earlier in the show.) Simon states that this exercise is very much connected to the frequency shift whereby the lower states where the exercises are being carried out will be experiencing a higher frequency field in July and August – the purpose being of learning from and managing the resultant effects on the population there before it heightens further in the upper states into September.
Essentially, as I see it, this frequency shift is leading to a heightening of polarities so while, as Simon says, there will be rising societal chaos for a period, with consciousness continuing to expand and awaken, welcome breakthroughs will also arise with the arrival and more widespread acceptance of, for example, new forms of technology and healthcare modalities.
Simon cites the acceleration and growth within the Open Source community and how this is leading to the free sharing and development in the likes of these aforementioned areas. These include the potential for free energy sources being rolled out in three years or less, electromagnetic cures for the likes of cancer as well as more natural medicines that will consequently challenge Big Pharma.
In relation to this he says the more that you share with others, the more abundance you receive because what you’re in effect doing is releasing fear energy through this medium of exchange.
He also expects in the next few months, leaders in certain countries to come out and initiate a new peace forum that will, amongst other things, encourage the continual blossoming of Open Source platforms.
Lastly, at various points through the show, he encourages people to make sure they’re getting more sleep so your overall health, nervous system and immune system is better equipped to better cope not only with the heightening energies but also in interactions with those around you.
Based upon this article, should we be expecting a rising or falling stock market?
Haha!
Well, at least the predictions are nice and specific. I am due at a wedding in Cali in October, so I might get some travel insurance for once, making sure it compensates for flight costs in the event of “acts of God”, natch 😉
The wave stuff and people going nuts in advance of its coming is very reminiscent of the channelings of Laura Knight-Jadczyk over at http://www.cassiopaea.com. I wonder if this guy has been reading them?
Well, it all makes for a ripping yarn, even if it turns out to be -ahem- less than accurate.
NO,, not into the channeling mumbo jumbo.
Valley, please read the post below.
Personally, I am looking for a 18 – 22 moderate correction by Oct 1/15
18 – 22% correction
Dave, are you still long into next week? Any thots on the near term direction of market into weekend, and next Monday and Tuesday?
Interesting! The HC Jupiter/Saturn square will be exact September 21st; could this have anything to do with it?
Very much so !
Great; Tuesday HC Mercury squares Jupiter and opposes Saturn, creating a HC T-square. Should have some impact. Very rare alignment indeed!
Fascinating.
http://www.rense.com/general35/comet.htm
Due to the many complex cycles converging upon us, I am in the process of liquidating my long positions. It does not mean we will not go up into the middle of next week. I just do not want the extra stress of having to worry about my long position over the weekend. I wish to enjoy a stress free weekend. We are so close to a top in terms of time and values in the market. LOL Barry asked me yesterday, why are you picking up nickels? He is correct, due to my short term biases of the markets heading into the Sept time frame.
Here is another major cycle in play for this linear time frame.
Let’s take a look at the incredibly accurate timing of the Shmita Year as it impacts modern history in the realm of finances, economies and empires:
1901-1902 Shmita Year – 46% U.S. Stock market value wiped out.
1916-1917 Shmita Year – 40% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed. Britain, the world’s greatest empire was almost bankrupt. The beginning of American to rise to world power. All during this one Shmita year.
1930-1931 Shmita Year – 86% U.S stock market value wiped out in the worst financial crisis in modern history.
1937-1938 Shmita Year – 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession.
1944-1945 Shmita Year – End of German Reich and Britain’s hold on territories. Establishment of America as the world’s super power.
1965-1966 Shmita Year – 23% stock market value wiped out.
1972-1973 Shmita Year – 48% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession. U.S. Voted to kill its unborn children (Abortion legalized). U.S. lost its first war – Vietnam…
1979-1980 Shmita Year – U.S. and global recession.
1986-1987 Shmita Year – 33% U.S. Stock market value wiped out.
1993-1994 Shmita Year – Bond market crash.
2000-2001 Shmita Year – 37% U.S. stock market value wiped out. 9/11 and Global recession.
2007-2008 Shmita Year – 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession.
2014-2015 Shmita Year – Same pattern but very severe judgment coming (See 7×7 Shmita Harbingers)
The current Shmita Year, September 25, 2014 – September 13, 2015 is the 7th and last Shmita year in this cycle then follows the 50th year, Jubilee…year of liberation (Rapture). From the above facts… one can see the systematic pattern of the Shmita Year woven into the recent history of today’s society. Buckle up, we’re in for a rough ride in the days ahead.
.ARE YOU RAPTURE READY?
Good luck every one !!
Talking of Harbingers…I think Shake Shack Inc has some overpriced ones.
Their harbinger meals contain 2000 calories.
This is 7 times the required calories for a good snack.
Please note, I am not into propaganda religion. So for get about the rapture part.
Thks
Interesting stuff. Jubilee is when all debts are forgiven and everyone starts out at zero. That is the calamity the 1% has been avoiding for a long time.
Excellent summary of this cycle, I guess I will follow your lead and exit on Monday at the close. Hope to obtain one more percent on the upside before selling begins.
Hi Valley, I have just liquidated my longs here. I am starting to nibble at some shorts for the Sept time frame. I do not care if the market goes up here for a few percentage points. Please do not follow my lead, use your own intuition.
Thanks, Dave. I will cast my bread upon the waters with care. New Moon next week makes my job easier it is hoped.
Valley,
Just to add to your Monday market exit (you should be bang on, in terms of my prognosis), here’s my latest Elliott wave forecast (as at Friday, the 10th).
http://worldcyclesinstitute.com/a-foregone-conclusion/
@DaveKane9 Love the Shmita list! Thanks for updating that link! The seven year cycle is a very powerful market cycle.
Hi Peter,
I may stay in market past Monday as there are a couple of planet thingies that usually deliver upward moves (Helio Ven/Mer Conj on 7/18, and Earth Mer Sup Conj on 7/23); combined with favorable lunar on all three metrics, price near 200 day ma, earnings season, Greece’s New and Charismatic Finance Minister, I think the possibility exists for a rally all week. After this Friday I won’t touch market with a 10 foot pole for at least 2 weeks. Rest of your article is reasonable, I will be watching with interest to see if your analysis plays out over the next year.
Please use your own intuition and discernment When reading the above articles.
Thank you for sharing this with us (sorry about my quip).
Spiral update 7/10 12:39 Eastern. Expansion high 7/19. It’s corrective – price targets 2085, 2002, Spiral expects next Monday and Tuesday to be down. NOT trading advice.
Randy Phinney has a new video about possible gold rally
http://rightsideofthechart.com/gold-technical-analysis-video/
Dave – you didn’t give a source on your post.
was this it?
http://areyouready.co.za/shmita-year
Yes, sorry about that.
I would like to thank ALL contributors, starting with our host for the very EXCELLENT commentary with depth and variety that we’ve had over the last few days. LOVED IT ALL!! I’ve been busy to read through all of it in detail but hope to do so over the weekend.
G’Luck to all and have a ‘safe’ week end. It’s going to be ‘choppy’ whatever the EU decide.
Wow, today’s top on the DJIA came perilously close to the 17816 Wave (A) high….BUT as they say a ‘miss is as good as a mile’. In fact on the 5 minute chart of the DJIA the last bit of today’s wave looks like a completed ending diagonal.
IF that’s the case then we can see a quick tumble down to 17670ish (start of the diagonal) and potentially a LOT further down. However given all the ‘NEWS’ that we are going to get in the next 72 hours then ALL BETS ARE OFF THE TABLE right now.
Expect LOTS AND LOTS of CHURN. (Technical dairy term applicable to markets in certain circumstances) 🙂
Butter you’re right, however, this may be an example of churning for dollars, as the skids seemed to be greased for the short sellers next week, imho. 🙂
Message for Andre.
I copied and saved your long-term predictions from early February. Here is one line:
‘I have 2 critical dates : may 16th and july 31st.’
May 16th was a good shout, the Sunday before the top, let’s see what late July brings. Regards.
Oops; you saved my expectations? February is a long time ago. Allow me to update a bit tomorrow 😉
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/10/germany-greek-pain-debt-relief-grexit
I think, perhaps, Varoufakis is awaiting his chance for power in Greece.
Many twists and turns yet to come with this issue.
Greek deal far from done and dusted. Tsipras lacks majority to get it passed.
Wouldn’t a failed deal throw the cat amongst the pigeons. This whole mess could really go from bad to impossible.
What if Greeze needs to go to new elections? The markets have been very quick to make assumptions going into the weekend.
This could really take the wind out of the sails if things go sour again. Much much more so than had the markets taken a more cautious approach.
Does biblical doom top-trump all other doom for the stock market.
#1 Price Action
#2 Planetary alignment
#3 Natural disaster – asteriods etc.
#4 Biblical
They’ll simply default, later in the summer. Banks will be resolved, and then they move on, clean and clear. Lenders will learn a lesson one hopes.
You will be proven correct GM, although possibly a little later down the road.
Gold, Silver take another P&F hit, Seeing gold to $2089.75 and silver to $14.65 with 75% probability. http://barestbodkins.blogspot.com/
I suspect you meant $1089.75 for gold Peter, which matches the 50% fib retrace of the bull from 19999 to 2011. $2,089 next year!
Thanks. Looks like Purvez probably on sleep break.
Greece. wow. what a shit show. is it even possible to be more despicable sleazeball lair than Tsipras? unfreaking believable.
All be fair in politics and power plays. He who gives the drunk another drink should not be a bartender in the first instance. Using the poor as insurance lacks morality.
Dow 2 hr
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=120&b=3&g=0&id=p76931041064&a=346765879&r=1436611511278&cmd=print
Yep, this is why monetary systems don’t work…it will be hell now for Greeks in the future…
Hell, or simply their reality j?
Time for Greece to sort itself out and live within its means, to determine their future, their problems are caused by themselves. This is where the Euro-system is leading us: back to reality.
Gosh, the fluffy-bunny equality-for-all, easy-life, live-on-debt, govt will provide philosophy brigade is going to be horrified when the bubble bursts. The strong, bright and prepared will prosper. Others, reliant on failing govts, will suffer.
Such is life, such is evolution.
The many have not been insured, not like those who took a safe bet using the many as collateral for their profit. Did the many agree to repayment terms and conditions involving their very existence? Once their economy was destabilized the risk – reward on debt financing was fictitious. Where is the risk when you assume the power to destroy the entire nation in order to reap your assumed risk-free returns. The Greek referendum result is another brick in the building of a more reasonable world where the wolfish greed for power and easy money is tamed, and people are not unwittingly bribed for votes by an array of power hungry, 2-faced, self-seeking scumbag politicians and their financial backers.
Hear hear. You will enjoy my next Screwtape post, nearly finished it.
Peter
This is not the start of building anything new. Trust me. You’ll see…..
J
Peter_ the sad bit is that the tables could easily be overturned if the Greeks would only walk away from this dreadful institution.
Short term pain – yes. But long term Liberty & sovereignty. Looking from the outside, worth the risk reward.
After all what is the world going to do? Stop visiting or dealing with Greece? Bet the Germans take the biggest advantage of cheap holidays!! Also of their shipping industry as it becomes more competitive.
I believe their collective Spirit is willing but their political flesh is weak.
The Referendum made that amply clear.
I hope this post does not try to fix the existing system GM…:)
Good luck with it…
J
Lunar Chord next 5 trading days
Planets: slight bull, but only one more week
Moon Phase: bull
Declination: bull
Distance: neutral
Seasonals: bull
Price: erratic
Summary: This week is firing on all cylinders bullish with seasonals, phase, and declination all bullish. Price is erratic and choppy. So, will take the risk of being long for a gap up into the new moon but won’t be long past this Thursday. Happy trading, and get ready for post Venus conjunction 8/15 two month rally, especially in GDX, GDXJ, or better miners.
Hi Valley, I appreciate your notes from a astrological point of view. I hope for your sake, that buying the gold stocks is the prudent move to do in the 8/15 time frame.
As for my self, I will wait until the HUI is at least near or below the 120 level. Gold below $ 1,100.00 When the major markets do crack over the next 8 to 10 weeks, they will flush the gold stocks down with them. LOL, But than again, what do I know.
Best of luck to every one.
Thanks Dave, will be seeing if your 8 to 10 week prediction is realized. I am thinking more of 4 weeks down, 8 weeks up, and then a year long slump beginning with a flat October to December which usually rallies.
Hi Valley, I am going to be more forth coming with what I see in the Markets in the near future.
I would highly suggest you take a look at Martin Armstrongs web site.
http://www.economicconfidencemodels.com
His model shows a major economic turning point for OCT 1st
He pinned the very high in the Japanese Nikkei market on the exact day in 1989
He pinned the very day of the stock market crash in 1987
I am looking for a turning point in the markets on Oct 1st. Stock market to rise
Most people are looking for a major correction in the markets in the Oct time frame.
I am personally looking for a 18 – 22 % correction in the markets. To be exact, I am looking for the Dow Jones to come down into the 14,342 range
Oil eventually to come down to $ 38 – 42 min
Gold $ 1,025 – 1080. min
Cdn dollar $ .69 – .71 vs the US dollar
Real estate to peak Oct 1st
As I have mentioned before, we are in for ONE WILD BUMPY RIDE
The Economic Confidence Model
ECM-Wave-2011-2020
An interesting week coming up. Geece has overshadowed China fr the moment but I believe that events in China last week were the most significant since the GFC.
China has failed miserably in its opportunity to take over as the financial capital of the world for perhaps decades to come.
The absurd deision by the Chinese government has and will destroy future investment and make international investors EXTREMELY wary of China.
Who in their right mind would invest in China now to any sizeable degree?
Looks like a Grexit back on the cards. I knew there would be a complication even after Greece gave in as per my previous post! Glad Im short Dow over the weekend but short Europe was the one to be. All easy in hindsight though.
Grexit impossible Krish. No mechanism for it, no prpearations for it, and the Greeks don’t want it.
Default, that’s what is coming.
I would, in a few years Allan.
One must never forget that the world is living with a monetary system that happened by accident, and doesn’t work, as settlement never happens.
China, like many, is biding its time, and accumulating real wealth.
News scoop for everyone here…China’s official gold holdings…over 9,000 tonnes as at year-end 2014.
Click to access Zhang%20Bingnan_EN1.pdf
Your money not mine, I certainly won’t be. The Chinese establishment have just proven that they are untrustable.
Decades of dictatorial rule will means that they have a mindset that goes even beyond western leaders.
The Chinese mindset is peaceful and they seek to build trade and improve their lot.
Sounds better than the Atlantic alliance that has plagued the world for the past 100 years.
The faux democracy in the West is in many ways worse than China’s political set up, at least their approach is long term.
But whatever we think, China and its partners are where the money is going forward, especially after gold is revalued. India, wow, land of opportunity.
Oh GM?……Go tell that to the Tibetans. The Chinese establishment through expansion will take whatever they want to take without conscience. Taiwan next.
Unfortunately for Greeks, they want to stay in the Euro because they don’t understand the implications longer term. There will not be a Grexit unless the EU don’t want them there and are willing to forego 240B Euros……
J
Perhaps the Greeks want to avoid Venezuala’s fate j?
http://www.ft.com/fastft/356181
The Greeks just need to default and move on, within a stable currency set-up. They will.
Yep, I am sure they do, but like Iceland this will be impossible. I don’t think that the Troika will let Greece default *and* stay within the Euro personally. At least not for long.
J
I think a better solution for Greece is to forego all debt and only give them short term bridge loans until they set up a new currency or somehow manage to remain in the euro. The €240 billion loss can be reprinted by the ECB and injected directly into peripheral bonds to help avoid/delay contagion. Keeps the ECB balance sheet the same and more euros in circulation means a weaker euro which will help the European recovery. If that can’t stop contagion the euro will be extinct faster than most predictions.
Krish,
Ask yourself the question: How do a load of govt bonds defaulting make the Euro currency weaker, or at risk of extinction? Think it through. (Note that the Euro currency is supra-national, it is not issued by a government).
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2002/html/sp020509.en.html
(one of the best money-related speeches ever made BTW).
The contagion will happen, but it won’t be the currency suffering, it’ll be the profligate governments. Bye bye rampant socialism, hello reality.
GM looks like a deal on Greece and my 11500 hit :). I may be going against the general consensus on this site but i was damn right and your 10,000 prediction was abysmally off the mark. Lets see if this rally continues and catapults us higher or we start to turn down from here. Unfortunately I didn’t hold my long from 10,600 all the way but if anyone did listen to my advice a 900 point gain would be the reward.
Lol, Krish, come on. Be honest with yourself at least. You’re all over the place, changing like the days. One day happy, the next miserable. Too much emotion.
I maintain that 10k lies ahead in short order, I expect rallies to be sold, I’ve been right about that for a couple of months. By all means trade opposite the primary trend, and good luck with that. Late last week you were short the Dow. You admitted to following Bob Hoyes ‘advice’ above I see.
I fear for the survival of your trading account, do yourself a favour, read your comments recently, examine your trading.
By the way krish, even me, a non-trader, knows that those last 3 daily Dax candles are a big red warning sign.
If you don’t know that, or see it and ignore it, you will get what you deserve from these markets.
Limitations on Germany’s sovereignty remain from the 1952 Bonn treaty and NATO is their military master. Germany is also still barred from taking major decisions without prior agreement with the allied victor powers. So if Germany is the major player within the EU, the popular concept of EU political independence appears to be in need of a much more open and detailed understanding. And yes, they can have their phones tapped. So NATO does not want Greece out of the EU and free as a bird to allow Russian fleet access. The German noise will soon be different when they understand that there are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in their philosophy.
But so too will the Atlantic alliance, when they realise the Euro set-up allows debts to default. The dollar (Eurodollar) world cannot withstand this pressure.
Anyone here got any thoughts on the latest Greek situation?
Looks like ex fin min Yanis is playing the ‘long’ game.
I do hope he comes back to lead them out of the mad cap Euro Zone.
What specifically leads you to call the single currency zone ‘mad cap’ p?
GM, I wasn’t particularly referring to the single currency when I said that. I was referring more to the back door usurping of sovereignty via/by Brussels and the asset grab that’s going on. However I still remain sceptical of a single currency across multiple sovereign nations.
Morning purvez,
It’s not a backdoor usurpation of sovereignty is it? All the Eurozone nations are voluntary members of course. It’s a difficult system, when so many views are to be taken into account, but have you ever stopped to consider that a collegiate approach is a good approach? I think it is, if only such a system was appied to the whole planet, rather than the American Empire. Might save a few million lives in due course, but too late for millions already perished of course.
As for an asset grab, well, debts either need to be repaid or not. Greece will no doubt decide whether it wants to repay those debts, or whether it will default. And I mean the Greek people will decide, they do have ultimate sovereignty. I suspect this ‘deal’ will not last for long.
Have a good week.
GM, I suspect you’ve never been in debt. I have. At each negotiation I was encouraged to add more till ‘they’ were circling my home. It was worth GBP£1M…. guess what they wanted it for? GBP 300k!!
Just to be clear I had NOT defaulted on a SINGLE payment….but that’s what they wanted me to do.
I enlisted the help of VERY RICH friends….(yes I did have some, thankfully). They were more than happy to stick the middle finger to my creditors. That caused them some serious ‘pain’ as they were convinced that they had me for a third of what my house was worth. One of them rang me personally and said ‘you got away, but there are many more’.
This is something very painful for me to reveal but that is how the world of ‘finance’ works.
……Why did I fall in debt? I’m a sole software programmer who was doing OK’…. then 2 of my main corporate clients were given the same treatment which meant I was in the ‘chain’.
GM, I sincerely hope you NEVER go through anything like what I’ve recounted. However please understand that there is ‘another’ side to every argument.
With all Good Wishes to ALL.
purvez, not to appear in any way unsympathetic, but what you experienced is the unwinding of the credit cycle, a chain of events.
That’s what the world is about to face too, Greece merely the start of it.
Creditors and debtors both take risks when loans are made.
I’m of the view that viable loans will be OK generally, those that are unviable will default, or assets pledged will be at risk. That’s the market.
I used to work in a bank, so have plenty of experience of bad debtors, I know it can be tough.
GM, which bit of the credit cycle gives Creditors the right to ‘asset grab’ at one third the true value of an asset?
Assets are pledged by debtors as part of a ‘fair’ bargain. In my case, AND I would argue in Greece’s case the Creditors are using undue leverage to gain an asset at unfair prices.
To me that is an ‘asset grab’!!
I would like to APOLOGISE to everyone here, but particularly to our host.
This is not a forum for ‘bleeding hearts’ posts and my earlier post does sound like one.
In my ‘feeble’ defence, I was merely trying to use a very personal and painful episode as an argument of what I believe is happening to Greece.
Sorry ALL.
Thanks, instructive story for homeowners with mortgages, for sure!
purvez, the law should prevent asset grabs at below market value, one would hope.
However, one reaches a certain age (a few years ago for me now), when one realises that life isn’t always fair. That’s life, sometimes it’s a pile of poo.
Happy that you lived to share your tale though.
in the grand scheme of things, Greece’s economy is the size of a major US city, on the global front they are inconsequential. China should be the focus and their attempts to convince the IMF they deserve to be a reserve currency
Alphahorn
That is an extremely lazy sentence you have heard on Fox News or similar?
The Greek economy is indeed about the size of the City of Detroit. Take a look at the debt levels of the two and come back to me here. This is for your own good….
J
debt per citizen is only about 1/2 of what the US debt per citizen is, biggest negative is debt is 1.5x gdp, vs about 1 x gdp for US
p.s. this is before Detroit went bankrupt in 2013……btw
Also, Greece defaulting has far more repurcussions in terms of contagion and in relation to sentiment in other member nations.
And there is NOWAY IN HELL Tsipras will get this deal through parliament. They are obligated under this deal to sell everything, including that which is bolted down.
Greeks I know are OUTRAGED!……..and that is putting it lightly.
This will NEVER pass!!
At time of writing 09:30 BST it looks like ‘some’ deal has been done. A tin can just rolled past my window.
P, read my previous. There is NOWAY Greeks will acept this deal. Tsipras is kidding himself. This guy just made a mockery of the Greeks.
How can you possibly reject a deal, take it to the people, whom reject any deal outright and then accept a far worse deal afterwards??
I am stunned, as are many Greeks.
Allan, I did read your previous post and agree that the deal SHOULD be rejected. However I get the feeling that the Greeks would rather stay in the Euro and accept humiliation than be out and broke (or so they think).
The referendum was a ‘No’ only because Tsipras and Varoufakis told the Greeks that they could say ‘No’ AND still stay in the Euro. Varoufakis was relying on his ‘Game Theory’ mastery to get that through.
I agree with your comment below that the Germans and the Union should be ashamed. This is a ‘Coup’ and an Asset Grab of the most despicable kind.
There is an alternative ‘conspiracy theory’ going around in my head:
What if Syriza always wanted to leave the Eurozone and stuff them with their bad debts?
Now they wouldn’t have had a chance of being elected if they’d said that up front. So they said, we’ll renegotiate AND stay in the Euro. That get’s them in.
Then they antagonise everyone in EU land enough to get their backs up so that they become even harder in their attitude towards the Greeks.
Finally Syriza return and say….Look we tried everything possible including accepting humiliation but these guys aren’t budging. What do you want us to do now?…..And by the way we can really stuff it to these Eurocrats and their Banksters if we drop out and not pay back anything.
If you can get the people fed up enough then that would work.
Does anyone think that ‘may’ be a game plan? Alternately will one of the ‘B-Film Makers’ buy the plot from me for a very reasonable amount….say 230Bn?
purvez, your theory is sound, except for the bit about leaving, as that isn’t want the Greeks want (and is technically impossible anyway).
Regarding the triangle I was tracking for wave 4….its dead. At time of writing the DJIA is trading around 17830 which is above the start of my wave (A). Right now it looks like another expanded flat. Since W2 was an expanded flat, under EW guidelines it is unlikely that W4 would be the same too.
However I was reading Peter Temple’s post above and his blog and his suggestion of a smaller degree w-i & w-ii look more probable, although I have always found it very difficult, personally, to count sub-waves live. (After the event they look obvious to me.) I guess I’m just going to have to plod on with looking at more waves.
Peter Temple`s count is a joke from the beginning…. wave 1 seriously????
1-2 i-ii give me a brake how many times in this bull market has that worked out? – none.
40 weeks cycle low or even 18 months low and he is expecting wave 3 to begin – dream on.
Europe just finished corrective move lower and another move higher has begun clear impulse higher already.
Have you look at market breath and the divergences?
Guys get serious two weeks ago I have shown charts for Europe to prepare for the bottom. I explained why, and you still looking for a move lower….
EW fight!
🙂 🙂 Hardly GM. Just an ‘alternative’ wave count as normal. Lol. Sorry to disappoint you.
fight! fight! fight! – Hahahaha that was good:)
ES contract testing 2078-2080 resistance. If taken, then move to 2150-2170 is plausible
SPX within a few tenths of a gap close on my charts. Will wait to see before making any further trades on SPX.
imho
J
Just going over the details, the Greeks can’t possibly accept it. They are left with nothing. Not even their sovereignty but more than that, their dignity.
Germany and the Union should be ashamed!
how is it possible for Tsipras to conduct the referendum, pronounce the Greeks to be the proud nation which does not bow to the creditors and just one week later accept conditions which are much much worse? I just can not believe this. Is there any dignity in the world left? Unreal!
or was their referendum just a con game on the greeks part and the whole nation participated?
Reb, Tsipras knows how the Greek public will react. I think he’s given the Troika enough rope to hang themselves personally, with no blame attaching to the Greek government whatsoever.
Or he could be a cr%p politician I suppose.
Hi John
I hope all is well.
I’ve not popped in for a while but for what it’s worth i thought I’d offer my two penny worth.
I’ve had a reasonably large long position in the SP500 at the 1909 level for a little while. I’m going to sell it towards the end of this week or maybe at the beginning of next – and maybe go short.
Why?
1. The rising wedge has broken to the downside.
2. The PM’s are looking like they are possibly breaking down, ergo, priced in e.g.. gold the SP500 is rising.
3.The SP500 is about to enter the year 3/year7 historical black spot i.e 18th July – 9th Aug.
4. New moon on 16th and the markets seem to be running between 2 and 4 days later than the lunar wave.
5. Since the break of the wedge a bell curve is forming – the top of the value of that curve is about 2120.
With any luck I will get my rally to about that level.
If there is a breakdown below the bottom of the bell curve then I will sell too.
kind regards
Will
Hi all ! I was away on vacation last week. Sorry for that. I see that some bears are happy because we just had a 3%-4% correction. Wow, big deal.
I am not worried at all, and i’m looking forward to a great second half. Greece has been resolved as I predicted. It was a non-issue from the beginning. The ECB will just paper over all the problems quickly.
The Chinese central bank is also doing a great job. They will support the market and the governement will crack down on short sellers and all those who want to drive the market down. It should be illegal to drive the stock market down.
Gold and gold stocks are still in the toilet where they belong.
Hey Allan, how’s your GDX and GDXJ doing these days ?
regards.
Hi Nicolas how’s your RIO and BHP going that you bought at the highs in the frst half of May going?
BTW I don’t own GDX. i own good quality Canadian and Aussie miners tjat are doing just fine thank you amd I continue to accumulate physical gold. Being in Australia, again just fine.
No offence to others but as you are American you only see things from one perpespective. There is a whole world out there Nicolas.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24XAD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p80373784119
Hello Nic,
You’re becoming nastier and nastier with each visit (‘in the toilet where they belong’)! Try to maintain some courtesy.
Funny how your holidays coincide with sell-offs isn’t it?
Well, good news, you’ll soon be able to look forward to some very long holidays indeed.
Like I mentioned before, Nic started posting Sept last year when the S&P was at 2000. Where is the S&P today? Hardly worth the risk in my opinion. He will either be a bagholder or he’ll just disappear from this board when things do finally fall apart…guaranteed!
Nic, be a good boy now. And where’s that apology to Peggy, young man?
Here’s my ‘goto’ chart ….. again!!
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$NYAD
The wave counts I reference below are for THIS chart and NOT for the underlying instrument. Please note.
W3 down was in 5 waves. Now we are in W4. Ideally this should get to 102.5Kish.
The problem I have here is that I still think we are in W-4 rather than the 1-2, i-ii scenario on the underlying instrument. And since W-4 has invaded W-1’s territory we are in a Leading Diagonal. God these things are VERY HARD to decipher so I’m just spouting out what I see.
Please, Please don’t think about trading anything off this.
Ha!! I’m getting a bit ‘big headed’ here aren’t I?
I’m do hope NO ONE trades off anything I say.
G’Luck to all.
IMO Elliott based upon and needs heavily traded indices. Even index futures can throw it. Trying to apply it on anything else is just gonna lead to trauma.
IMO this is wave IV and the A of the ABC is completed. So this is the B.
Try it every 4 hours with water, maybe it will fix the headache.
Peter_ yes you are right about EW being more accurate on heavily traded indices. However you can’t deny the very clear wave count that is emerging here.
You said ‘IMO this is wave IV and the A of the ABC is completed’. What were you referring to, please?
7/13 10:04 Spiral update – 7442 Analytics Spiral forecasting 2132 high near Expansion 7/19. Sean has refined the direction of the Spiral to one column – check “BASIS”. http://www.ustream.tv/channel/7442-analytics
IBB near the highs again, ready to breakout. Continue to accumulate the undervalued sectors like IBB, and avoid the most overvalued sectors like GDX.
best regards.
Nicolas, please may I ask, how do YOU ‘value’ sectors? What are your parameters? Thx in advance.
Nicolas.. IBB with a P/E > 80 is overvalued. interesting that the gap up days have lower volume. you might get a new high if market continues higher, just to ensure the big boys can unload their shares (& go short) to the bus chasers who buy the breakout. IBB & XBI are swinging almost 10% in a matter of days. Maybe it’s consolidation or maybe it’s a topping process. IMO,… based on my indicators the big boys are shorting into IBB & XBI big time. good luck with your longs. doesn’t hurt take a profit after a huge run-up
Nicolas:
“It should be illegal to drive the stock market down.”
This is why I have always said he is a troll. I am ignoring him now permanently:D
J
Hi Purvez. Good question. I use forward PEs, P/B, price momemtum and increasingly what the central banks are buying.
I’m convinced that central banks don’t want to see gold go up. So, after mulling it over again, I would avoid gold.
Thx very much for our response Nicolas.
Sorry I meant to say, ALL your parameters re very good EXCEPT for the last one, which you rely on the MOST.
Is Draghi your last name by any chance? Just joking. 🙂
WWI, WWII long forgotten.Mankind is destined to repeat the mistakes of the past.
Germany forgets how the rest of the world forgave their debt?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-13/how-german-media-see-new-greek-deal
Allan,
“That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history.” –Aldous Huxley
today “correction” of HUI index reached 500 points from 638 high with a low of just 138.
In the last twenty years the ratio between biotech index and gold miners index has incresead by a factor of ONE HUNDRED. Yes, you read exactly, 100 times.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTK%3A%24XAU&p=W&st=1993-07-13&en=22222-09-09&id=p53750742176
wow that’s an amazing chart. huge differential. will it revert to the mean? how long would it take, and what’s going to change the trend IBB/XBI or XAU? maybe both? interesting times ahead.
Hi Allan and Simo500. Yes, I am a little bit in the red on RIO and BHP, although they are small positions in my portfolio.
Simo500, good chart. Still way to go for biotechs. The ration will continue to trend higher.
for the moment I disagree with you. I find some relationship in prices that let me think a reversal is possible.
Jay Kaeppel’s Jay on the Markets points out in recent article that two of the more reliable cycles (one of which the storied Peter Eliades developed in the 80s) the 40 week and the 212 week are both flipping bullish next month. Fits nicely with washout decline scenario into 8/15 or so with expansive rebound. Exciting times.
QQQ near the highs again. Congrats everybody. Well done. I continue to resist the bearish case. Central banks are just too powerful. Why do you want to fight them ?
regards
QQQ 3% higher than it was back in November 2014. Tough luck bulls. Stupid bulls.
I continue to see a topping process. Central banks are as impotent as they always have been, the world is about to realise that fact. Why would you want to trade a myth that they’re powerful? (Cos you’re a silly teenager maybe?).
Hugs & kisses.
Lunar Chord:
As stated earlier this Lunar Chord week(Phase, Distance, Declination, Planets, Seasonals) is very bullish M T W, and bullish Th and maybe Fr.. Next week is equally as bearish as this week bullish. My weekend long trade worked out well and will probably exit if we get another 1 to 2% to the upside. The Venus Inferior Conjunction (8/15 and month leading up to) sell off has yet to materialize as it does 8 of 10 years with sizable sell offs.
Off to bed, but just noticed that in FTSE 100 futures, on Friday and Monday, 100% of its gains were in the ‘gaps up’, with zero gain once trading had started either day.
For the Dax futures, 70% of the gains were in the gaps, only 30% during trading.
Draw your own conclusions. 😉
(It’s so obvious…….)
Yeh its obviously going up. The trend has changed. Sorry bears.
Oh dear Krish, that’s the wrong conclusion.
Run out of steam was the correct answer, the final spasms of a dying bull market.
Are you still holding your 9th July Dow short?
Here you go Krish:
http://screencast.com/t/5SXeN5teyH
Once 10,600 is taken out (next week?), 10k will arrive in a hurry.
If it turns down quickly from here i agree 10k is potentially likely but i think it will break upwards over the next few days or fall slightly and then break through the top channel. I have added to the Dow short and average 17860. Wrong move in my opinion but waiting to see the 18k breakout before closing and taking a loss.
18k dow broken and short closed. Onwards and upwards. Lets the bears feel the pain!
What if? Jeb Bush’s machine is placed behind Marco Rubio (younger, charismatic, more popular with hispanic voters) and he wins versus Hillary in 2016 election. Hillary and Bill Clinton are busy with their various foundations and becoming a bit long in the tooth. Then…market sells off next year and a half ala ’07 – ’08 and the blame is placed on the previous administration, just as Jimmy Carter was given the criticism for the weak economy early in the Reagan administration. Rubio with fresh start begins new American renaissance ala Reagan’s 1980’s. And gold miners begin their meteoric rise as they did in 1980’s. This might explain Donald Trumps bizarre comments which has made him a whipping boy…just in time for Marco to arise and show Republicans are the just fine.
Firstly valley, politics is just like a game show, especially in the USA. Different shades of red. The U.S. is done, it will tear itself apart over the next c.40 years. Get out now.
Secondly, gold miners had their run up from 65-82. Then nothing really for 32 years.
GM, for a reality check take a vacation to New York City. If after spending a week there touring the museums, historical sites, and parks; eating at restaurants maxed out by visitors from every country in the world, all of whom are happy to be there and are spending their money on entertainment, clothing, lodging, etc.. Take off the gloom colored glasses, GM, there is a reason so many of your mates from Australia and people from all the world’s great countries have wanted to and continue to emigrate to the US. Special place, at least two centuries of greatness lie ahead.
Gold’s main value is as a store of wealth historically. After computer and digital storage of wealth there is an infinite supply of 1 and 0’s which will overwhelm its position in the long run. Sure, bubbles may occur, however imo Gold’s price will resemble coffee, wheat, or corn. Miner’s will get subsidies to keep them open but the price of Gold will be at or near production costs. And don’t get me started on Gold production from melting glass (watch youtube video “Kitco, Albrecht, Glass, Gold, Microwave).
Time will show us valley, I use history as my guide, and all empires die, the current one will no be an exception. My glasses are clear.
I have to point out valley, the Yanks ‘specialness’ is built from the end of a gun, wreaking havoc and terror across the globe. They kindly drone-killed a few dozen innocent Yemenis recently, but you won’t here about that on Bloomberg or Fox news. https://t.co/WHfpcyisSi
Once their currency is cast aside, thankfully they will keep to their own business, as their war machine will be unaffordable, along with all the big macs and fries.
To date:$18tr of debts plus c.$60tr of corporate/household debt, plus c.$50tr of unfunded liabilities, plus c. $20tr trade deficits. I give it 20 years before total US collapse. I will toast their demise.
To quote the song diva, Madonna: “We are living in a material world”.
There is a glass on the table, it is half filled with cold fresh spring water. It is a hot day. Instead of second guessing why the glass isn’t all the way filled; one could drink the water and benefit. Current macroeconomic picture is similar to that metaphor. There are problems, and there are solutions. Focusing on the solutions is more profitable imv.
The solution was planned from the end of Bretton Woods valley.
It involves the Euro and gold.
Hence, paper profits in the wrong currency will prove illusory, whilst physical gold goes to the moon.
1922 to date: a huge bubble, never before seen, the world over. Your whole life within it. Hence, you and most others don’t even see it.
Open your eyes, before it’s too late, that’s my tip.
BLS: average “real” wages have fallen since the Great Recession:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/since-financial-crisis-almost-americans-143900623.html
BoG ordered to hand over 112 tons of Gold. Stripped of assets,a future, self respect and dignity.
Is there anything else that was left behind?
With that said, I still believe that there is more than a 50/50 chance that this deal will not be accepted by the majority of Greeks or pass parliament.
I certainly hope that is the case.
All monetary gold is held by the CBs, cannot be used (currently) to cover the Greek debts Allan.
At some stage it will be: settlement will return, rather than the debt bubble of the past 100 years.
I agree Allan. We can but hope on behalf of the Greek people…..
imho
J
But the Greek people do need to sort themselves out don’t they?
They have a long proud track record of not paying taxes, defaulting (or devaluing), and generally not producing much. And yet their pensions system is very generous, ridiculously so.
Net consumers, whether sovereigns or households, tend to suffer in the long run.
(I am sure many European pensioners wish they could retire early on a pension worth much the same as the salary, but it’s not affordable is it? Reality has arrived).
Just wait til these exact same issues hit Portugal, Italy, Spain, France, the whole lot.
And of course the UK/US/Japan etc.
Nothing but doom ahead.
Doom list update:
#1 Price Action
#2 Planetary alignment
#3 Natural disaster – asteriods; mini-ice age etc.
#4 Biblical
#5 Pensions
#6 Jim Carrey’s Dumb and Dumber III gets financing.
Agreed GM, however accepting an even larger debt burden and selling off assets that would reduce tax contribution even further is not the way. Even Denmark’s inept (or corrupt, or perhaps both) politicans have managed to sell off their capital’s airport as well as considerable chunks of DONG and they are now not getting any tax income either, as these are run through Luxembourg subsidiaries of Macquarie and Goldmans respectively.
In a monetary system, you will always have these problems.
J
I don’t think this blog is the place for me to comment on these issues j.
I will merely note your statist anti-market view.
GM, huh? I can’t think of a better blog to comment on what j has mentioned. Why do you believe this is not the forum, please?
I, for one, am all ears.
Just to clarify, GM, I like j agree that the Greeks need to sort themselves out but the path they are being coerced down is hardly going to ‘sort’ the Greeks out….don’t you agree?
Well, this is a market/trading blog, so long debates on politics, money and ‘the world’ are somewhat off-topic I feel. I aim to get my much-procrastinated ‘money nexus’ post finished by Friday, so that can be discussed at STFU if so desired.
OK GM, look forward to it.
Banksters are pretty amazing creatures
they’re the first ones to grab the gold in iraq, libya, cyprus, ukraine and now greece all the while mumbling something about barbarous relic
Specie, Banksters are ‘double sided’ or is that ‘Two Faced’ I mean?
specie, no gold was grabbed in Cyprus or Greece, the ECB squashed that media hype instantly. As for the others you mention, if anyone had it, it was Uncle Sam.
The Earth could be headed for a ‘mini ice age’ researchers have warned.
A new study claims to have cracked predicting solar cycles – and says that between 2020 and 2030 solar cycles will cancel each other out.
This, they say, will lead to a phenomenon known as the ‘Maunder minimum’ – which has previously been known as a mini ice age when it hit between 1646 and 1715, even causing London’s River Thames to freeze over.
==========================================
Comments from an article on dailymail.com
This guy has been watching the sun more than anybody
He has a nice short video on it… well worth your time
his site:
http://www.suspicious0bservers.org/
Noted – GMO’s Montier…
http://www.finalternatives.com/node/31311
Hi all ! NEW HIGH FOR IBB ! I’m looking forward to a great second half for biotechs. I’m glad I didn’t listen to all those bears.
I still remember the first bearish post by John which was in december 2013…
His analysis is still very interesting but oh boy he’s been way way off.
Nicolas, time to put on your thinking cap! IBB has had a huge run up in price and almost all of the stocks in that index have no earnings. Wouldn’t it make sense that IBB would take a year or two off to let the companies in the index try to justify their valuations by monetizing their inventions and producing income?
Thanks for pointing that out. I’ll be watchin’ and a grinnin’.
I’ve decided that this is gonna be a lot of fun watchin’ rather than worryin’
Hi Valley ! Well, the big cap biotech stocks have low PEs like GILD, AMGN, CELG.
Many of them don’t have earnings, you’re right, but have potential new blockbuster drugs in the pipeline. So, i still see a lot of upside there.
regards
They have “potential”, and on that I agree. Troublematic aspect is way the PE ratio for IBB is calculated. Their formula caps PE on listed stocks at 60 which understates PE. They also remove stocks with negative earnings from their formula. They also remove stocks with negative earnings from their formula. Sorry for the echo. So, buying IBB you are getting GILD, AMGN, CELG all of which have earnings and proven products. However, based upon the way PE ratio is calculated you are getting a product with a PE that if calculated properly would definitely be in the dot.com bubble ranges. Not an investment I would invest in. July is the IBB sweet spot seasonally so a meek rally may occur. Later this week and into early August, you may consider shorting IBB with the etf “BIS”.
Hi again Valley !
You shouldn’t value small biotech stocks on earnings but on the potential sales down the road. Of course many of them don’t have earnings right now but are still good buys.
The big biotech stocks have lower PE than most gold stocks. Heck, many gold stocks don’t have any earnings. So, i’d rather be long IBB than GDX.
I’d always assumed Nic was just taking the p!$$ somewhat, but he is the bull personified. We are blessed to have him here, it’ll be a shame he’ll be gone so soon.
GM, I wouldn’t write off Nic so soon.
I’m beginning to believe that Nic is able to turn on a dime. I DO hope he posts here when he does turn because that could be a FANTASTIC trade. As it is we missed his FIRST FANTASTIC trade.
In markets and trading being ‘logical’ is a curse. Nic clearly has the ‘pulse’ of the market, including the CBs here.
G’Luck Nic.
Oh dear, you don’t subscribe to the central banks theory p?
Monetarism doesn’t work. It’s all a con. As the bursting bubble will show.
Hi Purvez ! Yes, I am able to turn on a dime if needed. As I said before, I am a strong believer in the power of central banks. In the post 2008 world, central banks play a major role in all markets, which was not the case before.
If central banks stop propping up the stock market, let interest rates rise, abandon QE etc… then, I would turn bearish. In the meantime, don’t fight them. They have unlimited buying power.
regards
‘Strong belief’.
Yes, that’s what they wanted. Be interesting to see how strong that belief is in 30 months time.
This is how bubbles form folks, poor saps like Nic ‘believe’ the latest myth.
GM you are NOT LISTENING!! I think Nic is probably closer than me….and you to the markets and its gyrations.
Neither I nor Nic believe in the power of the CBs forever but you have to agree that ‘for the moment’ they appear to have the reigns.
I just wish I had the ‘guts’ to listen to Nic earlier.
Nic …… you WILL tell us when you ‘defect’ otherwise it’s going to a waste of time.
Sorry purvez, but no.
The central banks have no reigns, no horses, no carriages.
The bubble about to burst is just a classic credit expansion, just like the roaring 20s. Stocks, corporate bonds, ETFs, property: all will burst, despite the central banks.
Does everyone forget the CBs eased ALL the way down from 07 to 09? The result? 50% off stocks. Well played CBs.
It’s a myth, Mother Nature (via the sun & weather), the laws of maths, and human nature guarantee certain outcomes.
I’ll quote Nic verbatim this time:
‘As I said before, I am a strong believer in the power of central banks.’
Proof, if any were needed, that Nic is a fool, and he will soon be parted with his money.
Don’t feed the troll please. Like CB’s are going to let him and his troll friends know before they pull the plug lol.
Just ignore……really.
J
b of B up next?
because it can
the narcotic be the same old market manipulating OTC derivatives
how much leverage at zero risk you want
going cheap, we pay you
Peter_, please would you look at an hourly chart of the DJIA for the period from 7th July to present.
Would you say that we had a triangle between the peak on 7th July and the trough on 9th July? Also does the action since 9th July look like a ‘thrust’ out of a triangle?
Thanks in advance.
The slowdown from Q1 continues with gusto, markets will wake up to this soon enough:
http://moslereconomics.com/2015/07/14/nfib-index-retail-sales-redbook-retail-sales/
The true value of blogs like this is the number of views that are expressed with facts that support the posters opinion on the market. While I don’t believe IBB QQQ or SPY are good investments at these prices and that the companies contained with these indexes have effectively share diluted on a secret basis by loading up their balance sheet with debt to buy back shares, the opinions expressed by Nicolas are consistent, well reasoned, and may for a few more quarters be profitable.
Refutation of the following statement would be appreciated:
CBs and Govts can effectively set price for all commodities and equities thru efficient transnational coordination of economic production and reporting.
Yes, they could potentially set the price of anything by buying enough of it. They won’t though.
But sell it, take the cash, visit the shops, see what it buys you. Bugger all.
Nominal v real returns, rolling currency crises, it’s all coming down the road.
‘the opinions expressed by Nicolas are consistent, well reasoned’
Sigh.
I can only agree GM. Anyone who makes a statement like that is somewhat tainted by association. Seriously.
Valley, they could do that at the very dramatic and quite ferocious expense of the taxpayer. The only “money” being produced in the system is labour, the rest is even less real. Once people wake up to see they really have the power – when it gets bad enough – then there will be a different tune. That is why it is important to consider totally new systems where all this old sh1t has to go. Most people will need a direction to move to, and that is where a non-monetary economy comes in. We have to think of the longer term future, not papering over the cracks with all kinds of bullsh1t. But as GM says, perhaps this is better debated elsewhere so we do not hijack John’s blog.
Be careful out there.
J
It is very simple and best expressed by the old adage “Don’t fight the Fed”, the origin of which dates back decades to the late, great Marty Zweig. Nothing new under the sun and all that.
But to the point, consider:
Chairperson Yellen has repeatedly telegraphed the message that it is likely that the Fed will implement a policy of normalization of interest rates in the near future, subject to data input on an on-going basis. We believe that a hike in interest rates, albeit nominal, is likely in September. We maintain the Federal Reserve is
committed to being ahead of the curve, i.e. take action before inflation manifests itself. Yet the first early signs such as the increase in minimum wage, have already appeared on the horizon.
The second issue is perhaps more relevant. The Fed has been under significant criticism from both political parties in Congress. Republicans in general have been critical of the zero interest rate policy implemented by Chairman Bernanke, whereas the Democrats are mindful of banks being too big to fail. The Fed is acutely aware of its critics on Capitol Hill and realizes that it would be providing political fodder for raising interest rates during the Presidential political season. In short, the Federal Reserve has a relatively small window of opportunity to raise rates.
As has been demonstrated numerous times over the last year, financial markets would regard a rate hike as being a significant juncture. Regardless of how insignificant the total amount of the rate increase may be, we believe that it would be the overall change in Fed policy after almost eight years of zero interest rates that the marketplace would focus upon. We believe that the timing of this change in Fed policy will trigger an inflection point for financial markets.
“Nothing new under the sun…” Pardon the pun, John 🙂
Don’t know ehre you copied & pasted that from Gary, some mainstream source no doubt. All of it is 100% BS. The Fed is impotent, always has been, always.
Read Hussman this week for evidence of that:
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150713.htm
People are such sheep, it’s amazing to behold.
Both GM and Jegersmart have agreed with the statement. Since no one else has disagreed and I believe the statement to be correct, my conclusion:
First, Jacque Fresco is a genius designer of machines, buildings, and has an understanding of human motivations and is an excellent polemicist. His vision of a Venus Project utopia lacks common sense because his assumption is that everyone in the world is like him, a quant with 180 IQ and a heart of gold. Fact is, average people kind of need a system as it currently exists in order to have motivation to produce (stick) and outproduce their neighbors (carrot).
Second, the future of the economy is going to be more of the same with increasing integration of technology resulting efficiency and more and more interdependence between nations and more dependence on villages to cities, cities to states, and states to capitals, and capitals to governing bodies (UN).
Any other view is good in that it opens the door to a world that could exist centuries from now, but my focus is on my equity curve and consider time spent on research and dialogue on financial websites to be about getting trading tools and ideas.
GMs gold as money thesis if the year was 2001, and no one had thot of it I would be on it like a fly on rice. However, after years of consideration I find it to be impossible given the conclusion I have come to that e-commerce and e-currency will be the only game in town going forward. Agreeing with Nicolas and complementing his reasoning isn’t unreasonable although I don’t agree with his investing advice.
valley, stop projecting your own goldbug biases onto me please: I’ve never once said gold is money, or that it should be or will be.
I agree with Bernanke, gold is just an asset.
Thank John H and everyone for such an interesting website.
http://www.rense.com/general35/comet.htm
Just catching up on all my reading tonight… We’re really getting “out there” this evening…. Yikes!
Valley:
……CBs and Govts can effectively set price for all commodities and equities thru efficient transnational coordination of economic production and reporting…….
Maybe I’m missing something, but isn’t this the Russian economic system of 40-80 years ago?? So yes, you can do that, but your definition of “effectively” and “efficient” must be different than mine….
…..the opinions expressed by Nicolas are consistent, well reasoned…..
Going to agree with GM here…
Consistent? Yes…. Well-reasoned?? Not hardly….
Nicolas is simply following my “Sun-up, Market-up” system…. haha
(mentioned several days ago)
Consistent? Yes
Paying off?? Yes
Well reasoned?? No
Already in a Recession (a good read):
http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/StreetTalk/economy-recession-retail-sales-consumer/2015/07/14/id/657023/
The winning trade in a multi year bull market is usually
long, so positioning to take advantage of that is likely
to be rewarded.
Belief in a never ending bull market is utterly ridiculous,
it does not merit any discussion, full stop.
JH, like many here, have called an end to this cycle
far too early, unlike some John has owned that call.
Many just stopped posting or started down the reasons,
excuses road, it’s a sign of strength to say I got this wrong
(on timing) not weakness.
Speaking of which, trading RIO cost me £3.7k last week – ouch!,
ended the week just up but that was an awful call on my part.
I’ve read so much BS about the Greek issue this past couple of weeks, thankfully very little here to be fair.
But for those who feel a little sorry for the Greeks, have a read of this, and you’ll read a balanced view of the deal (provisionally) agreed at the weekend. (purvez, I’m looking at you 😉 )
http://www.acting-man.com/?p=38507
I can’t recall how I arrived at Michael Pettis’ blog but this post by him helped me understand world economics a lot better than I previously did.
http://blog.mpettis.com/2015/06/internal-and-external-balance/
A warning though, he is NOT a master at precis.
Hi Purvez
Thanks for this, barring differences in terminology this fits in with my limited understanding already. I am however further limited by my lack of interest in the current economic system, and hope that people will spend half as much time envisaging other systems to be used in the future, because this one is no good.
Valley made a statement earlier:
“Fact is, average people kind of need a system as it currently exists in order to have motivation to produce (stick) and outproduce their neighbors (carrot).”
I would be very careful in declaring something as a “fact”. This is purely an opinion, which is totally different.
If you create an economy that is based on equality, abundance and resource-based decisions rather than competition, debt, scarcity and labour (all controlled by “money”) whilst changing our specialised corporate-sponsored education to somethingmuch more general and human-behaviour based you will produce generations that see the world very differently to us. By “us” I mean anyone who has grown up and been shaped by a monetary system. It is extremely difficult to envisage how humanity would change in a completely alternative system. Difficult to envisage why crime would be minimal, why people would almost certainly trust each other, why when we look back how much resources we wasted in this paralysing period of time for humanity. Yes, Jaques Fresco is probably a genius – but we need people like that to *envisage* alternatives and try to wake the rest of us up.
If anyone has a suggestion where to go and debate this in more detail, I would be happy to put some time in.
J
By ‘us’ you mean humanity to date j. Money has existed ever since we became a civilised species, so 7,000 years or more.
Your dream is admirable, but it ignores several key facts:
…the evolutionary impulse,lead by the strong, bright and innovative.
…there is scarcity in many resources, which will only increase, especially during a mini-ice age, rather than abundance.
….equality is merely a socialist myth. We are not equal, we never will be. To strive for equality is both futile and will take mankind back to the trees.
We will advance, with better money.
J, does the Venus Project have a discussion blog? If they do there are bound to be ‘antagonists’ there with whom you could have a chin wag.
Hi Purvez and all ! Yes, my thesis is very honest and straightforward. We are in a very different world now. Central banks have enormous power and are willing to set prices on stocks and bonds. Many central banks do buy stocks directly, notably the Bank of Japan and the Swiss central bank. It’s not my fault, it’s a fact. A lot of them set prices for bonds by buying huge quantities of government and corporate bonds.
So, why fight them ? Just go along for the ride.
New highs again for IBB. These biotech stocks are really exploding. Honestly I feel almost embarrassed for John. He’s been calling the top for over 18 months now.
regards
Nicolas, you have no need to be embarrassed for John. In fact your continuous reference is really unwelcome.
John doesn’t ‘just’ make a prediction, he follows it up with strong evidence for that prediction. We all have differing views on the market and we are happy to respect yours as much as John’s.
Feel free to predict yourself without necessarily implying that someone else is wrong. We are all aware of reality and need no reminding please.
Nicolas, you don’t have to be so rude to John. He’s graceful enough to let you post replies on the site, please show a little respect.
I have a question for the increasingly strident bears on this board, as it’s a concern when the attacks go ad hominem, which has been happening to Nicolas for some time.
Just spin a scenario: What is it going to take to turn you bullish? What would the markets have to do to accomplish that?
Jackie S, my answer to your question is ….. market should fall by at least 30-50% given it’s current manic ‘one way rise’ before I would turn bullish.
Once a bear has decided that a market is ‘overvalued’ then the higher it goes the stronger is the bear’s argument.
Jackie S, to call Nic a fool (for believing CBs can or do control markets, and that selling ought to be banned) is not an ad hominem, it’s a fact.
For not grasping that, you too are a fool. 😉
Now now GM! Name calling doesn’t suit your style.
However, a golden leotard with cape covered in gold lame AU symbols might!
Oh dear! Poor bears. GM hope your losses aren’t racking up too high, What a wonderous buying opportunity Greece provided for us and congrats to all who followed my advice and bought near the lows. The pain has definitely not stopped for the bears and will not do so this year. The only thing that will change my mind is a return to the recent lows before the end of July.
Hello Krish. I’m sat on some cash waiting to buy some physical gold, I have zero leverage, I play a long game, happy to wait to buy into equities when they’re being puked up 50% lower than now, or more.
For the potential benefit of those of a bullish bent, the gold/silver ratio and commodities generally are once again giving an early ‘risk-off’ liquidity warning. The equity markets have run out of steam, which way will they go next?
Given all of the sensible analysis I read here and elsewhere, down seems the direction.
Good luck.
BTW krish, you went short the Dow AT the lows, don’t imagine that will be forgotten.
I assume that you covered your short Dow?
Yes my Dow short was closed on the break of 18,000. To put it into perspective it lost me 5% of my DAX profits this year so not a major hit. I may reshort the Dow when/if it reaches ATHs but the stop will be tight. Dax I’ve got a small stake long looking to add on any dips.
7/15 11:05 Eastern Spiral is approaching Expansion 7/19. Price targets revised downward. 2116 – 2123.
Singularity low expected 8/9. Price target 2042
Silly boy…
Don’t know where you copied & pasted that from Gary, some mainstream source no doubt. All of it is 100% BS. The Fed is impotent, always has been, always. Read Hussman this week for evidence of that: http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150713.htm
People are such sheep, it’s amazing to behold.
Rather than ‘silly boy’, how about attempting to refute the points Hussman makes about the Fed? Give it your best shot, go on. Provide some evidence to back up the BS in your copy & paste post.
I won’t hold my breath.
Oh no!, it’s Puetz Crash Time again. Since there are two solar and two lunar eclipses every year, it does not work much. I bring it up as several think a decline into Oct is going to happen. The general rule is a panic begins at a full moon/lunar eclipse (Sep 28) within 2 weeks of a solar eclipse(Sep 13). Panic is from second chance, not the top. The top is fequently 6 weeks from the lunar eclipse, Aug 14th. However, the bottom of the 1929 Crash was at the lunar eclipse. The 1929 crash was 2.5 months putting the top now. An article by Daniel Watkins about this is on Safehaven.
you clearly don’t know what the Puetz crash window is. There are not 2 windows every year, we have gone years without one.
Puetz just said that one starts Aug 14th. He stated in his June 16, 2010 that the general rule is that the panic phase tends to start at the time of a full-moon within 2 weeks of a solar eclipse and if the full moon is an eclipse, even better. There are usually 2 lunar and 2 solar eclipses each year, and you are correct, they are not all Puetz crash windows. When I looked into the windows a while back, I felt there was too much variation for my liking. Somebody, maybe you, said the solar eclipse occuring before the lunar was impt. Well, for the second time this year that is happening. I am not an expert on it but I have some idea.
Silly silly. When the 4th wave concludes all will be bears and will thereby contribute to the 5th. It is written deep within the human psyche. There is no escape. Like night follows day. And increasingly few will expect any 5th. And when it comes about >90% of all mouths will be open due to the jaw muscles being dysfunctional. But I want no followers, so please regard me as a fool and go away.
Peter_, did you manage to see my request earlier? I’m re-posting it below to avoid wasting your time:
===============================
Peter_, please would you look at an hourly chart of the DJIA for the period from 7th July to present.
Would you say that we had a triangle between the peak on 7th July and the trough on 9th July? Also does the action since 9th July look like a ‘thrust’ out of a triangle?
Thanks in advance.
Perv thats a no and a no.
But I see a broken lower jaw with open mouth.
Closing a gap with a gap is pretty but the reluctant closing direction contravenes rule of oral hygiene and is thereby untidy. It needs to try again and watch its feet very carefully.
Think nothing of it.
Thx Peter_. I understood the first sentence which is all I needed to know.
One day I HOPE to be able to understand ALL of your post.
I think you are wise.
Biotechs add 100% since Yellen said they were overvalued. Today CELG pays $7 bill and adds $12 bill to its cap. Almost $20 bill for a not-approved-yet drug which expects to add $1 bill in sales. Just. Freaking. WOW. Whole sector was rumored to have the deal coming and added 5% over yesterday and today, which probably makes $100 bill- $150 bill in total cap with everybody jumping. Just. AWESOME.
Would not touch this thing either way, but when it all blows up, it will be SPECTACULAR.
i’ve had the popcorn ready for a while.
for a time i was concerned for those involved
not now
i’m just gonna have fun watching
As I was reading through this thread last night,a thought occurred to me…
Don’t think I’ve ever seen Nicolas ~this~ prolific in his postings….
NOT meaning to pile on here, but can’t help but feel we’ve reached (reaching?) some kind of crescendo in the market right here….
Just a “gut” thought….
We need a graph of Nic’s postings frequency!! Yeah!! Anyone up for it?
nowhere to be found when things turn sour type he is, no?
Note he was ‘on vacation’ during the little sell-off.
Now he’s having his fun.
It’s sad that any of us react to him, he’s a typical troll.
Rough round the edges, perhaps. But just a bloke with a different point of view to most of us. Surely we can tolerate that?
The Nifty stocks in 1973 did crash through 1976, but they recovered by 1996 and actually beat the market. Walmart was one such company, but others like Polaroid died.
20 years is a long time. By then, the population will be aged, including China. There will be cancer and other health issues. It is not a stretch to think that some of these biotech names would be the next Walmart.
I am in the unfortunate camp calling for a major correction/crash over the next 2 years. The problem every bear knows is that time is not on the short side, since equities tend to rise over time.
OPEX week. Market has Peaked on every OPEX week this year.
Exited near top, now short. This could be faux sell off, but good chance we go 5 to 10% lower from here.
Valley – Most indicators got October 2014 style oversold. After that the market jumped 14%. That would put the SP-500 around 2330 or something, don’t feel like doing math. Be careful. I sold my longs from last week, last batch of 206 calls today, most yesterday. Initiated first scale short today, both SPY and IBB @ 396.30 via the IBB Aug. 380 puts.
Avatar
geno0010 • 8 hours ago
Short IBB @ 396.xx @ 9:04 CST on July 15th, 2015
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geno0010 geno0010 • 8 hours ago
Buying up the Aug 380 puts.
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Still tracking this, but paying close attention to see if I should flip bullish again
Geno0010, good to hear from you. I am in cash until Friday or Monday. Will only trade short until August.
Been busy. Strength started kicking in at the 2055 low, that’s when I started buying. Shorter term indicators are pegged bullish right now, so there should be a drop to relieve some of those overbought conditions. Strength was supposed to run into tomorrow, but no point worrying about that yet. 25% Short right now.
When you get to the daily charts though, the indicators were so oversold that I doubt we’ll drop below the 2044 low on a correction, then most likely head higher. Will need to monitor.
Venus inferior conjunction (Venus switches from evening star to morning star) on 8/15. This acts as an emetic to the market every 16 months, sometimes the effect is day of, sometimes 10 days, or 20 days before. I will SOH if I have to, just don’t want to be long into this event.
I do have one nasty EW count that 2055 was the low followed by A up, B wave triangle, then C up
Hi Geno, I was looking at a similar on the DJIA. However Peter_ doesn’t seem to think its a triangle nor the ‘thrust’ from it.
Hey Purvez, nice to hear from ya! That’s okay if Peter doesn’t think it’s a triangle, he’s trading his money, not mine. I like my ED idea above a few posts. That’s how I’m trading it. Looking for a pullback starting anytime now.
Hope all is well.
Hehehe!! I’m sure Peter_ would agree with your sentiment.
Yeah me too for a small pull back. The thing that I’ve found with these rallies is that they ‘extend’ beyond all ‘reasonable’ expectations. Soooo I’ve increased my ‘reasonableness’, but it would appear so have ‘they’. Lol.
I’m beginning to sound as cryptic as Peter_. 🙂
Agreed that the triangle count is the most likely, considering the impulsive move in SPX today. My expectation is that this next pullback will be corrective, as wave b of 5 to set up a new swing high for Aug/Sep.
If the pullback is observed early next week, I think it might be sizable, retracing roughly 50% of the current rally off last week’s low. My rough estimate is 2080 ish in SPX.
Closed all my long positions and waiting in cash now.
Good to see some old faces still posting on this board. I temporarily left as the bearish tone on this board was getting a little too overwhelm for me. Amazingly, Nicolas continues playing the market the right way, while several others shockingly were still calling for a crash. imv Phil White will be proven correct when this is all said and done. Late Sept/Oct remains the most likely time frame for a crash scenario imho.
On another note, I also agree that accumulating physical gold is a smart move by GM and others. I am also in accumulation mode of GDX/GDXJ as I believe a corrective bounce is imminent.
GLTA!
GDX at $16.31 today, below November lows. If gold continues to sell off may reach $10 to $12 per share. Hmmm, is it soon time to back the truck and load up?
BlueStar, surprised OPEX does not get more
attention on here.
And the market grinds higher….markets seem very dull now after the volatility we saw over the last few weeks. GM when is this DAX crash to 10,000 meant to happen again? It’s now a 1650 point drop to hit that. The bear setup that appeared over the last few weeks is quickly disappearing…can’t deny that guys.
Another Dax gap up Krish, it’ll collapse in a heap after so many in a row.
Your days are numbered in my opinion.
Sorry make that 1750 points to drop now. How many days you think before its collapses in a heap? Just want to check the accuracy of your statements.
Dunno. Soon though.
GM
This is a normal reaction from someone within the monetary system. It took me quite a while to try to see this from a totally new viewpoint. The normal reaction is to come up with reasons why it won’t work, and the next step is usually to deride (although you haven’t done that – yet).
The assumption that evolution “lead by the strong, bright, etc” has to be EXCLUSIVE to those with the advantages and benefits (in general) within a system is a fallacy of the system we have now. A system where everyone is INCLUDED would be far more evolutionary and innovative. Current “innovation” is extremely limited, and almost always pursued only where profit can be made. This is illogical.
To your last very usual point that almost everyone makes when they first think about this and haven’t had time to formulate an intelligent reply before dismissing something – namely that of equality and of calling it a “social myth”…..well…I never said that people are equal, or should be equal. What a system like this does is to provide equal support for every human, what you do with your life would be more or less your choice. The “fear of equality” is instilled in many in the current system by the competition and the need to be better, faster etc in order to survive. It will not take us “back to the trees” to give everyone an equal footing, as you so dramatically put it, it will unburden us from having to do meaningless jobs and include everyone on the planet so that we have a bigger sample of innovation and unity to take from.
To your point on scarcity. Sure, there are scarcities in commodities but we would all experience them (if we do) equally rather than man-made scarcities when GM and Allan for example buy up all the gold with advantages over others that have been afforded them by the system itself (at the expense of another) or through their actions in the past (crime, fraud etc.). Then, the commodity in question would be held and used by relatively few – and you say that this is unavoidable?
Purvez, whilst I have had some contact with the Venus Project it is not really interesting to debate a new system with people who have already got past the stage that GM and others find themselves in now. Once we have an open mind then it is possible to discuss detail, however as a system like this could only be applied inclusively for all, it feels far more important to speak to others who have not seriously considered that they could conceive of another system than the one they grew up in. To me, those are the “bright and strong” that GM mentions. He mentions them in the context of the system we have now, I mention them in the context that the system we have now doesn’t work and finding a new way is what we need. Anyone who has spent 60 hours per week in front of computer screens producing nothing of value to humankind whatsoever will usually have had that thought: “wtf am I doing”?
The last point is that of course there is no perfect system.All systems are evolving. What I can tell you is that in a monetary system there will always be corruption, lies, crime, war/conflict. It is built into the system and if you can’t see that we would need to go into more detail. But most realise this, and feel that it is a small price to pay for driving that Ferrari. Unless of course, the war/conflict comes to their door. This system brings us up to feel that it simply doesn’t matter enough that others starve to death, that our governments kill them (for our security) etc. – we are taught by this system that this is unavoidable and normal. Most people accept this without question.
So I look forward to GM’s attempt to redesign a monetary system where I predict the majority of the work will go into the technical side of how this will work, but not consider even the last 2 points I made regarding starvation/conflict. I predict he will dismiss these. Let us see what he brings!
All the best
J
Global population growth rate being projected to slow to the extent that 1950 to 2050 will only be a quadruple. Within this is the expanding ratio of wealth distribution and the exponential increase of the indigent. Already there is no sustainability, so it is dealt with by simply ignoring it.
The same collective psyche applies to all situations of no sustainability. All living things opt for mindless self destruction when the light at the end of their tunnel goes out. Just an observation and I know what the reaction will be.
OUCH!! Peter_, you too have a very DIM view of our specie.
I’m getting a bit depressed with all this negative thinking here.
Sorry to disturb Perv. Don’t let me make you lose your place in the Lemming line. I think they are so cute and so happily democratic. Sweet hopeless suckers.
PS: B wave in.
jeger,
You may not realise it, but you appear to have some biases that leak through in your post. The most striking was this comment:
‘when GM and Allan for example buy up all the gold with advantages over others that have been afforded them by the system itself (at the expense of another) or through their actions in the past (crime, fraud etc.).’
I realise you were using Allan and myself and gold as examples, so I’m not personally offended at all, but do you realise that people generally get on because of their own abilities, not because of the system or crime? And not necessarily at the expense of others, unless you view business as a crime? It all smacks of statism, or communism. Planned so that everyone can lie by the poolside!
I’ll be frank, I have zero interest in the dream of a system that you espouse, because it denies our nature as a species. It will never happen, hence I’ll instead continue to study the evolution that is happening as I type.
Just to clarify, I haven’t been attempting to re-design the monetary system, it was done by those far brighter than me starting in the 50s, and it’s already in place. My post will simply explain what it is that I see, and what it is likely to mean for the world.
GM wrote : ‘….because it denies our nature as a species.’
Whilst at a primordial level we are competitive we have also evolved to show kindness, generosity, sympathy and understand concepts like fairness and justice.
So I believe that only using ‘competitive’ as our nature is a bit misleading. To continue to evolve we do need to deepen our thinking/nature in those other aspects too.
We’ve been de-evolving for c.100 years purvez.
As soon as policy is dictated by democracy, backwards we go. I seriously doubt anyone can foresee how utterly miserable the rest of your lives are going to be, as you all expect the basic status quo to continue. Not a chance I’m afraid.
Just look at the moral vacuum in the world these days, the destruction of the family, the widespread socialist views, all in favour of fairness and equality. It’s dragging us all down to the lowest level, the depraved and the feckless. Meanwhile government takes over every aspect of our lives, whilst leeching for its own survival.
Hopefully we will turn the corner when the bubble bursts in the next 20 years, but we’re just as likely to nuke the planet. We’re just animals, we shouldn’t kid ourselves we’re somehow something different.
OUCH!! GM. You have a VERY DIM view of our specie.
Regarding the de-evolving, afraid I’ve got to agree with GM here, again….
So much so, there’s a “Sailboat in the Caribbean” plan for me….
A couple of years away, unfortunately, due to family commitments, but yes, I can already see big changes coming, that I’d prefer not to be a part of…
And I don’t think it’ll take anywhere near 20 years…..
J, I’m wondering which of GMs posts you are referring to? I can’t see where he has provided much of a response. I’d like to read it, if someone would point me to it please.
J, I don’t know whether you read the small(ish) fictional piece that I posted the link to?
http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm
For me that was quite a turning point in my thinking, simply because of the initial HARSH scenario that this guy painted. I understand your point of view about not discussing with the ‘converted’. Perhaps you could start a blog of your own where GM and others could participate….if only to shoot you down in flames. Lol.
GM, I know you are a busy person, but if you get the chance then I would recommend reading it too. (My recommendation of course extends to all who read this post) The initial bit is scary and being in the IT field I can visualise that scenario. Hence the 2nd part comes as a very welcome antidote. Utopian at this stage, I grant you, but again not impossible to imagine.
7/16 10:32 Eastern Spiral update – price targets for the Expansion high 9/19 (possible high Monday) are 2116, 2123 and 2132.
correction: Expansion high 7/19, not 9/19
Hi GM and Purvez
I will indeed read that P, thanks for that.
The problem with our education and environment is that there are of course biases everywhere, including myself though I try to put them aside. When people “get ahead” in a monetary system , it is almost always at the expense of others. Be this through competition (I have accepted a salaried position recently, so am not trading full time for a living per se anymore – apparently in that process I “beat” 84 others so I am told. Perhaps some of those need the job more than I do, statistically speaking that is a certainty knowing my circumstances). If one is rich and lends money to others, you are earning money from poor(er) people purely because for some reason you have more money than them in the first place. You may have more than them because you worked harder, was smarter, was born randomly into a geography were you do not have to spend 9 hours a day foraging for food in order to not starve. The factors are endless and we cannot realistically determine exactly why some of us get ahead more than others. I am sure that there are millions of people who are on the edge of starvation that are smart enough (if that is relevant even) and capable of doing what I do if they had the opportunity.
I am disappointed that you have used labels to deride some of my views (i didn’t think it would take long though, it is a natural reaction in our society do deal with conflicting views – everything from being labelled a pacifist if you don’t want to kill other humans after some terrorist attack and so on), such as “communism” and “statism”. By using those in that way, you show clearly the views that have been formed in you along the way – and these biases we all struggle with. May I point out the obvious relating to those 2 terms – and that is that communism or at least what has been tried so far and has been labelled as such is still monetary based, as is “statism” so far. All these things are just words in which we derive some sort of opinion or reaction to – most of the time what we have been formed to think by our backgrounds. “Lying by the poolside” is the most telling though, as this really shows how far down the line our consciousness has been impaired by the system. Many, many people see having a job as an honourable thing, even key to their identity. Being a murdered or killer but in a uniform is also seen as honourable. All these things are just biases of a system which is not designed to care for humans.
“Human nature” is another phrase which gets bandied about quite a lot. Beyond survival instincts I call BS on this. If I was born into an aboriginal society I would wear a loincloth or be naked and hunt in the forest. All the women in my tribe would also be naked so that sexualisation which is rampant in our culture would never even become an issue. In these tribes there are no rapes, thefts, or murders. If conflicts occur with other tribes it is because of scarcity. In the past our ancestors have fought when necessary to survive.
One final thought for now, “it will never happen” is a phrase that has been used ad nauseum throughout the ages. It was used in relation to “man will never fly”, “man will never land on the moon” and in countless other scenarios where it was proved utterly wrong. I personally think it will be very difficult for the monetary system to be killed off, but it may happen. I hope it will happen, because it will take us and the planet down with it.
J
“In these tribes there are no rapes, thefts, or murders.” You’re naive to think so.
J, no doubt the possibilities are limitless for human kind and the Fresco vision may be facilitated by new technologies that would seem sci fi today. While Fresco is interesting, would highly recommend watching David Talbott “Seeking the Third Story” on you tube, and if it resonates any of his other videos. Key to understanding our past and future is an accurate cosmology of the planet in its dynamic place within the evolving solar system.
Thanks Valley, will check it out.
GLA
J
They were bright 100 years ago, but human nature (deny it all you like) got in the way:
http://altered-states.net/barry/tesla/
j, there is so much I could write in response to your comments, but nearly all of them would be likely to cause offence.
I have no interest in thoughts, hopes or dreams that ignore facts and the entirety of human existence and behaviour. Good luck in the new job.
Final comment: any dreams for utopia that ignore the most advanced, the most evolved amongst our species (the sociopaths) are not worthy of consideration:
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/08/as-many-as-12-million-americans-are-sociopaths.html
Extrapolate those figures globally.
Well, we’ve hit another new high in the SPX/HYG ratio again….and for the last 6-7 months, it seems like it’s done that at short-term peaks in the SPX…
Some have lasted days, others have lasted 2-3 weeks…
Regardless, fair to say we are ~stretched~ here…
Other than that, I’ve got nothing….. *big sigh*
Friday set up:
Lunar Chord is as negative next week as this week was positive. Phase, distance, and declination will turn abruptly negative, and planetary/seasonals are very negative. While earnings jamboree may delay sell off into next week, going short on price strength tomorrow or Monday is my plan.
Not just the sink, give me the entire kitchen…
http://barestbodkins.blogspot.com/
Gold, oh dear, or not so dear )
Too bad I was a poor contrary indicator when I gave up on GDX last month.
In all seriousness, looking back at past bubbles, stopping out and reentering on a SMA breakdown — whether 10days or 50 days seem to be a better choice. We are beyond sanity, but anything can happen I suppose.
7/17 9:55 Eastern – 7442 Spiral further refined – watch “MICRO” column for a low at 10:10 central. http://www.ustream.tv/channel/7442-analytics
GM:
“j, there is so much I could write in response to your comments, but nearly all of them would be likely to cause offence.
I have no interest in thoughts, hopes or dreams that ignore facts and the entirety of human existence and behaviour. Good luck in the new job.”
I doubt that, I am not saying I am right or wrong – but I am interested in pursuing thinking along lines that are different to what we have now. By the way, I think it is admirable for you to spend time and put your thoughts out on what is happening now and what is likely to happen in the future. If people cannot open their minds enough to consider other future outcomes, they should at the very least know what is happening now and where it is likely to go.
I read the link provided earlier – http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm and suggest you do too. I also hope you don’t continue to be so angrily dismissive of radical new ideas, it might be worthwhile to consider for yourself why you have such a substantial reaction to it?
All the best
J
Thanks j.
It’s not that I have a closed mind or am angry, I am just a pragmatic realist, and once I’ve considered an idea (to be nonsensical), I move on. I’m fairly blunt too, some do take offence. Same thing happened when I was 6, and first heard about Christianity, took me one class lesson to realise it was all nonsense.
Have a good weekend everyone.
JH said “So what am I doing? Attacking but with stops (short Dow, RUT, IBB, long gold). If we are post second chance then there is no time to lose. The stock market should rapidly fall apart with increasingly big lurches downwards. On the other hand, if we have a second chance rally back up, I don’t want to be too exposed and save my big positioning for a little longer.”
I was on the attack too. Perhaps this is the top, but with Nasdaq making new highs, discipline does call for me to be stopped out. Perhaps September is the magic date finally?
Fortunately, if at least ONE stock can continue moving higher, we can all consider this as “still in a bull market”, right?? :-O
In the 70’s, they were called the “Nifty 50″….
It seems that in 2015, they can call them the “Nifty 5″…..
And apparently, that’s all you need….
What a FASCINATING market…. Not sure what else to say….
My two cents on gold/miners is that miners crashed the lower Bollinger band plus TSI at -95 this AM, which normally signifies a bottom /close to bottom of the current cycle. If that is true, the bear market rally shall start sooner than later. Continue accumulating GDX/GDXJ.
Erick, I can’t ignor the 8/15 Venus Inferior Conjunction which could mark dramatic reversal in GDX GDXJ. If past is prologue, they could both sell off from here to real value areas, next few weeks and then rebound back to recent highs or beyond from 8/15 to 10/15. This setup is getting better and better each day that GDX GDXJ weak pricing confirming the VIC effect. I won’t touch them until 8/15.
Thank you valley. I’ll need to set very tight stop and respect what the markets gives. It is true that the bloodbath phase in gold/miners could extend longer, and the effect of Venus Inferior Conjunction is real.
The dilemma I currently have is the timing of the bloodbath phase for gold from the cycle perspective. I fully expect a mini stock market crash in September/October, which will potentially take all commodities down with it, including miners. If that is true, then gold bear market should rally imminently for a few weeks, before heading down to the 8 year cycle low in October along with the rest of the market. The new gold bull then will start in Oct/Nov imho.
Gold is currently at the tail end of the current cycle, and the capitulation level is being observed. That is why I am willing to gamble on miners. 🙂
I would expect buying at these levels could yield a 100% return within 2 years. However, I believe price may get even lower between now and VIC. If so, I may load up the boat with GDXJ.
Totally agreed valley. Best of luck!
The sentiment in gold right now reflects capitulation. A lot of miners will go bankrupt and analysts are screaming gold below $1000. It is a gift that I am able to buy GDX/GDXJ at this level. Obviously the price could still dip some more, but timing bottoms is almost impossible, that I continue buying in small tranches.
Add another 500% valley and you might be close.
Nic & Phil mocking gold, must be close to a bottom.
Hi ! Please get all of all gold stocks right now. Many of them will go bankrupt, such as ABX. They have huge debts from the boom.
My AMZN is doing great. I bought it a few months ago but some people were laghing and mocking me. I already have a nice profit.
Continue to accumulate IBB, QQQ which are just breaking out again.
Don’t listen to the bears, including John.
regards
Jay Kaeppel of JayontheMarkets says he owns IBB or equivalent for several years but is like a bunny rabbit, first sign of trouble he will sell. Says IBB chart resembles 1998 to 2000 rally which retraced 73% in years following.
ABX obviously broke support and is in a bloodbath phase, and end of the intermediate cycle. Bloodbath phase normally goes between 2-7 days. Today is day 2. If gold didn’t bottom today, it would be bottomed by some time next week. I am patient and I am adding my collection of miners.
Would be happy to trade a few IBB shares left in my portfolio for any GDX/GDXJ you could send my way Nic. Congrats on staying long. I hope your luck will last a few more weeks.
I closed gold shorts as I do not see momentum supporting immediate move lover.
1120-1140 should provide support. I believe that we will rally in gold once more, possibly as high as 1250. We may be forming larger triangle in gold as well as in USD.
I think gold will finally break down when stocks crash and this will probably happen after January 2016. There may be one more fake move down in October, only to be retraced, like this passing week.
Hi Bunell ! Well, I don’t see any rally soon in the gold price. I reiterate that you should sell all gold stocks as many have huge debt loads and will go bankrupt at theses gold prices.
By the way, I just sold my RIO at a small loss. I use the proceeds to buy NFLX, a small position in this leader.
GM,
You may try to cover up and hide away from your
calls, but that won’t work.
You have consistently stated that there are only weeks
left to buy gold at these levels – well you were half right,
it’s not at those levels anymore as it’s gone down.
You jumped up and down in March stating with certainty
that a correction was imminent, it never happened.
At least show some semblance of reality and admit mistakes,
rather than sniping at others.
Reasons, excuses, but never an admission of actually I got
this wrong.
Have a good weekend folks.
FWIW, I am 100% short SP500 at close on Friday. On Monday, I hope that song “Who let the dogs out” is rephrased “who let the bears out”. Reason is all lunar chord indicators are in negative mode next 5 trade days.
I feel absolutely better knowing you are 100% short, valley. I am also all in, shorting SPX and longing VIX; and accumulating miners. Cycle counts points to a reversal in the next 7 trading days. EW count signifies a Fibo 50% or 61% corrective move. It is good to know that the geo factors sync up with EW.
Sigh. Phil, you just ask for it don’t you. Apologies everyone.
A few quotes, none relevant omitted:
March 8th (GM): ‘My research shows that topping processes very often involve marginal new highs.
John’s last few posts make it crystal clear we’re in such a process.
When it finally rolls over…who knows, but sunspots declining, I reckon significant weakness is due about now.’
(I bought some gold miners on March 9th.)
March 10th: (GM) ‘Phil, gold has been in a renewed bull market for the past 8 months.
Just depends what you price it in.
You look only at the dollar price.
I look at the price in real things (versus other commodities).
It’s the difference between successful investing and following the herd.
Gold and the miners are going to fly over the next 2 years. Buy now, hold tight, simple.’
March 11th (GM): ‘Well worth looking at the gold price in all major currencies (as well as priced in any other commodity), I’d say the gold bull has already begun, just the dollar to crack, some time this year.’
March 13th (Phil): ‘Is the chatter around Putin’s public absence
behind the mini bounce in gold ?’ (GM…LOL, what a dope)
(GM) ‘No Phil, It’s Obama, he had 3 double bogeys in his round of golf yesterday, always positive for gold.’ ( 😉 )
March 15th (GM): ‘Thanks for the post John, I’m still in agreement that stocks are overdue a bear market, and I expect it to start imminently.’
March 15th (Phil): ‘If you are looking for an imminent severe sell off
the FOMC has to remove the patient phase.I think on that most of us can agree.’ (GM…LOL)
March 16th (Phil): ‘Gold looking perky atm.Where is Putin?.’
(Phil): ‘Mae, there are some significant pre arranged meetings
today apparently, so if he does not make an
appearance some degree of panic may begin
to set in.I find it very difficult to see anything dramatic having
taken place, perhaps minor surgery, soon see.’
I’ll stop there I think. I have made my point. Feel free to search yourself though Phil.
Thankfully, Putin eventually re-appeared (Phil updated us on that and gold’s reaction to it no doubt, important stuff of course).
Phil, do not make false claims, I confess I think virtually everything you write is childish and pointless, literally both of those. Please feel free to go and find any of my comments and mock me if you want to on any specifics, but don’t set up straw men points falsely, I’ll simply knock them down. Sit and ponder for a bit, I suspect you have some inferiority issues?
Amusingly, if gold has a rally from today, many here will remember your ‘dear oh gold’ comment as a classic Phil bottom tick, so let’s see. But I hope everyone buys some physical gold in this summer period, for the long run.
Based on the EW boys and the planetary predictions, I think a temporary high might be in for risk, and a low for gold. But, no one knows for sure, certainly not me.
Apologies to the board, but I hope the Putin stuff made you smile.
Amazing times. For me the most significant collection of events in recent memory culminated today with Tsipras sacking dissenters in his parliament.
Greece which prides itself on being the dorerunner for modern democracy is now on doorstep of dictatorship.
A ver sad week for Greece and Greeks bit also a warning to the restof the world because I see this as a sign for what is potentially coming to other nations as we head down a path toward financial chaos.
Sorry for the spelling errors. I need to stop typing on my iPad on the go.
Secondly further proof that paper markets are distorting fundamentals.
Silver demanding increasing globally in the first half of 2015 and dramatically so, yet the price declines.
That is what happens when paper markets dwarf physical markets and perception is allowed to predict price rather than fundamentals.
At some point demand/supply will reassert itself but it the huge explosion in Citibanks PM exposure commemcing Q1 15 is really beginning to show up for what it appears. And that is a clear cut effort to hold down price in the face of increasing global demand.
I now others will disagree, (GM ;), but the wieght of evidence points to probable cause.
why would Citi take a huge position to hold down prices?
Ask major shareholder representative entity, but it makes its own rules and so has no need to report anything to anyone. Just the American way. There was more transparency when they sponsored the KKK.
Allan, give us some of your thoughts, please, on whether GDXJ or GDX is an OK way to play the PM rally? (and what you think about EXK and HL). Thanks in advance.
MY 2 CENTS
A classic trade entry in medianline work occurs over and over in this sequence
Price trades to the closest target line, the medianline.
Then it rallies sharply off that line.
A new upsloping set is drawn and a trade entry is triggered
if price does a test and retest…
Since the entry at the retest there have been no resell signals…
no matter what I think should happen or wish to happen
I won’t trade against the tools
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=19&id=p96237098514&a=331801168&r=1437251146478&cmd=print
New Margin Debt
http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=tables&key=50&category=8
Scientists predict a new little ice age around 2030 until 2040!
Thanks all. New post.
Yes John
A great site.