With my current illness, then Xmas and NY, and what looks like a bounce/pause in the declines off that breadth capitulation, I’m going to take a break from what’s been relentless toil this year for little reward.
I can NOT regret my analysis: by the 1st Jan there were around 30 topping indicators for equities, and they have remained in place all year. But 2014 turned out to be a once in a decade or generation style event, taking sentiment, allocations, valuations and leverage to unprecedented stretching.
As a real time test of the influence of a solar maximum on speculation it has been better than could have hoped, but the associated collapse remains elusive for now. Those super-stretched multi-angled indicators suggest it’s coming, however. Plus, a little more hindsight on the solar data front will allow us to tidy up both sides of the equation.
So, enjoy the festivities and thanks for all your contributions.