Solar cycle 24 is projected to peak with a smoothed sunspot count of under 80 (peak SSN), which makes it the weakest cycle since solar cycle 16:
Solar cycle 24 is also the first since solar cycle 16 to have a higher secondary peaking of activity at the maximum, rather than the higher peaking coming first:
Source: Livingston & Penn
Solar cycle 16 is also the most similar in shape and progress to solar cycle 24:
The solar cycle 16 maximum ended with the 1929 crash and the start of the Great Depression. Demographics forecast a similar such period ahead and current stock market indicators point to both a bull market peak and a the set up for a stock market crash.
Have we experienced a similar last burst in solar activity in Q1-Q2 2014?:
Or does the top need to extend further yet in time? Either way, the similarities are intriguing.
I maintain the solar cycle is key to the stocks bear. We have 30 bearish indicators, and max leverage in the markets. Now we need to speculation to top out and leverage to unwind, and I believe it will do so when the solar maximum starts to wane. It may have already begun to wane and stocks have already topped out, but the evidence comes in slowly. Patience and money management are the key.