To add a little more to the last post on demographics, solar cycles and equities, here is the long term inflation-adjusted UK FTSE chart. The ‘xx years’ red/green colouring is not my work. I have instead marked the solar maxima in black.
Source: Monevator
Green circles are secular commodities peaks, every third solar maximum, equities buy point (note the equities buy point follows the secular commodities and solar peak by 1-4 years). Yellow circles are secular stocks interim peaks, every third solar maximum. Red circles are secular stock final peaks, every third solar maximum. It’s a very neat chart from a solar cycles perspective, and it may offer more evidence of the 33-year lunisolar cycle (3 solar cycles) creating sine waves in the markets.
However, the long term Nikkei chart that I presented in the last post did not conform. The secular peaks and troughs aligned with solar maxima but the 33-year cycle was not in evidence in the same way. What is consistent across the long term charts for FTSE, Nikkei and Dow was that secular turns aligned with solar maxima, and demographics dictated whether the market was in a secular bull or bear for any specific solar cycle, between maxima.
The reason the Nikkei made a secular bull in the 1970s solar cycle whilst the Dow made a secular bear was demographics, and the same applied in reverse in the 1990s solar cycle. It appears that a secular bull or bear is dependent on the demographic trend, whilst cyclical bulls or bears within the overall trend are not. During the 1990s, the Nikkei made cyclical bulls and bears that aligned with cyclical bulls and bears in the Dow. However, the Nikkei cyclical bulls were more sideways and the bears more downwards than the Dow’s respectively. In other words, stock indices around the world largely move together in cyclical bull and bear trends, but the gradient of the moves (and p/e progression) differs to create an overall secular bull or bear.
So looking ahead to the next solar cycle, from maximum to maximum, circa 2013 to circa 2025, out of the top 10 largest economies in the world, those with demographic trends in that period to support secular bulls are USA, Japan, Brazil and India (with Mexico and Indonesia just outside the top 10 potentially offering additional support); whilst those with negative demographic trends that would argue for secular bears in this period are China, Germany, France, UK, Italy and Russia (or we might simplify to China and Europe).
Compare this to the last solar cycle which was primarily a secular stocks bull, namely the one from the 1989 solar max to the 2000 solar max. The top 10 largest economies in the world were pretty much as now, just with slight differences in order. USA, Europe, China and Brazil made secular bulls, whilst Japan, Russia and India made secular bears. So not all countries made secular bulls, but out of the most important economies in the world, the total GDP of those in secular bulls exceeded those in secular bears. The same should occur in the next solar cycle, but by a lesser margin (having made a comparative calculation). The bottom line is, there are enough of the big guns in a demographic position to generate a K-spring, and if China were to draw down on its massive currency reserves to stimulate the economy in this period then it could potentially escape a bear too. The UK and the Eurozone don’t have such a fallback, and I think it therefore likely that they will endure another secular bear 2013-2025 (circa), if the demographic correlations hold true.
In summary, I think we see an overall up-cycle for equities for the next solar cycle looking out to 2025 or so (whenever the solar maximum falls), a K-spring. But I think buy-and-hold will do best targeted at USA, Japan, Brazil and India, with Mexico and Indonesia also likely outperformers.
My new chapter is moving home to Austria next week. The big trip inspired a big move (and maybe the solar maximum inspired both?!). Certain further-afield countries on the trip were highly attractive, but with two kids the option we have long had under consideration won out. My wife is Austrian, we have a network of family and friends there already, and the kids will become truly bilingual in both the language and culture of their second nationality. We get the better climate that the trip made me crave.
So Eurozone issues are going to have more resonance from now on. We will be living in Vorarlberg, in the very West of Austria on the Swiss/German border. If you live anywhere near there, e.g. Zurich, Liechtenstein, Bodensee, and would like to meet up, please get in touch with me at john(at)solarcycles(dot)net.
S O L A R C Y C L E S 
Best of luck on the big move, John, and thanks for all the insight and analysis you provide on this site. -Tom
Thanks Tom
Some great work John. Noble prize! You may have to include a demographic investing population graph in your long term models. I wonder if there is a way to plot a combination of nature’s influences against world indexes. Always enjoy reading.
Thanks Paul, yes some things to add to longer term models.
Have taken profits on 1*gold, 1*silver and 1*goldminers positions.
There will be an opportunity for me to short gold at around 1470 or to go with the flow when the price breaks down from this reaction rising channel. I hope I won’t miss it:)
I am also in a break-away mode, I am more into plumbing now than into trading : I am going to build a house on my own!..In another country where I will be learning my fourth language lol. I think not moving to Asia is a good move, Jim Rogers is wrong.
Good luck with that. Which country?
Slovakia.
Hope the move to Austria goes smoothly. On the subject of an upcoming equity bull, immigration in the UK has helped keep the Echo Boomer cohort from being smaller than the Baby Boomer cohort, and so as a result, UK demographics would appear to support some sort of UK upswing until 2025-2030 at least. If you ask me, the UK, Ireland and France are some of the best-placed countries, demographically. Places like Germany, Italy, Greece and Spain, with plunging birth rates in recent decades, would expect more of the sideways action between now and 2030.
Given that Ireland has suffered immensely from the banking crisis, it may be some time before Irish equities regain their pre-crisis peak. France has net migration of around +90,000 every year, but the UK has net migration of +180,000-250,000, and so you would expect the young, equity-buying population of the UK to grow faster than in France. Today’s UK GDP figures are a sign that the UK economy is set to outperform the mainland Europe for a while. I’m saying this, because the FTSE 250 has just started hitting all-time highs again. I have the suspicion that the UK will turn out better than expected by 2030. France might get along ok, but probably won’t see spectacular equity performance, whilst Ireland will be busy recovering from a housing bust.
As for Greece, Spain and Italy, sideways movements in stocks, with a downward bias will likely be the norm by 2030. Spain’s population actually shrank in 2012, due to huge migratory outflows. Italy may be the strongest of these three club Med countries. Germany’s stock market is close to all-time highs, but a smaller cohort of young people by 2030 may weigh down on the DAX in the future.
Animated UK population pyramid (1971 to 2085):
http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc1/UKPyramid.html
Animated French population pyramid (1901-2060):
http://www.insee.fr/fr/ppp/bases-de-donnees/irweb/projpop0760/dd/pyramide/pyramide.htm
Animated German population pyramid (1950-2060):
https://www.destatis.de/bevoelkerungspyramide/
They are great Pete, many thanks. Germany does indeed look bad. By my reading (as the golden group is 35-49) the UK looks to pick up as of 2025 for perhaps a decade – that would fit with the next solar cycle circa 2025-2035. France looks to change little, neither better nor worse over time.
I have found some more. Australia looks to do OK in that it retains its biggest bulge in the golden age group for the next 2 decades, despite growing old numbers:
http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/d3310114.nsf/home/Population%20Pyramid%20-%20Australia
China gets another boost in the middle aged bracket around 2030. So again perhaps a secular bull participant in the solar cycle of circa 2025-2035.
http://www.china-europe-usa.com/level_4_data/hum/011_7a.htm
Canada reached its best demos around 2000. Also gets a slight improvement around 2030:
http://www.footwork.com/pyramids.asp
New Zealand also gets a slight middle bulge improvement around 2025, so also a candidate for the next but one solar cycle
http://www.stats.govt.nz/tools_and_services/tools/interactive-pop-pyramid.aspx
Japan here:
http://www.mutantfrog.com/2009/03/11/animated-population-projection-1930-2055/
It can be seen why the Nikkei went crazy in the 1980s due to the outsized block of people going through the net investor age at that time. An improvement can be seen from now to 2020, as per the charts in the last post.
Indonesia here:
http://indonesiandemographics.weebly.com/major-demographic-characteristics.html
Looks positive for the next two solar cycles but then the young proportion gets a bit fat.
OK, they are all here:
http://populationpyramid.net/
Just click the letter for the country and then drag the mouse through the years
Still looking for a shallow equity bear coincident with a recession following the solar peak?
Yes, still place greatest probability with the primary scenario until proven otherwise: commodities and inflation to peak through the solar peak, yields to tighten, tip the world into shallow recession
Which is more important: cycles, sentiment, demographics, earnings, sunspots? The credit cycle! When the economy is bad and the central banks flood the
economy with money, stock bull mkt. Examples are the US in 2003 and 2009. Japan now and anticipation in Europe. The last time the FED was acting like now, 1940, the 41 month cycle which had been consistent for decades inverted. Cyclic work indicated the 2003-2007 bull mkt would be weak. Did the huge money injections change this? If you look at the cyclical bull runs in the Nikkei since 1990, they started with QE type activities. Your article made me think demographics determine whether easy money starts a real bull or just a cyclical run.
So where is the credit cycle now? It is still bullish. What will change this. In a disinflationary envronment, whenever the stock market goes into a fiveyear high, is a warning sign to get vigilant. We are there so now a rise in both short term and long term interest rates to a fifteen month high is is a sign the credit cycle is turning bearish – an inverted yield is a death knell. A flare-up into 5% inflation is a sell signal, as is a sharp deflation of 5%. The exact rules are in Strategic Investment Timing by Dick A. Stoken. One caveat is Reinhart and Rogoff. Looking at the credit cycle in Japan after 1990, the credit cycle tuned down quickly as soon as
QE or stimulus stopped. Even when credit conditions were positive by pre 1990 conditions,the mkt and economy started down almost immediately. Maybe it was so weak due to high debt (Reinhart and Rogoff) plus weak demographics. All the more esoteric stuff most of us here seem to love are impt. However, they are like seasonals, they can be overhelmed by other conditions and our way of looking at the markets have to judged relative to the credit conditions.
I’m in a different place Kent. I increasingly see central banks, and market participants equally, as subjects rather than agents.
Hi John,
Austria is a nice place to live. I am bit north east from you.
I really thing highly about your analysis. However there is still one highly important aspect you missing – climate.
Decreasing temp. (jet streams moving to south) could be very important for economy of england and irland. If the climate would change people would move from one country to another (irish potato famin case). In times climate was primary initiator of destabilizations like wars and revolutions. Some climate scientists belive we are in period of decreasing temp with probable low around 2025-2030.
If so this might be he case for brasil and energy.
One question regarding your post – did I missed something ? in last post it seemed like US demographics was bad till 2020, now you list US as one of the countries with good perspectives for 2013 – 2020.
Congrats on your short term gold play. I guess you have balls out of steel.
Best,
Pawel
P.s.
Sorry for spelling – mobile device
Hi Pawel, whereabouts northeast?
Yes you are right. Climate, and immigration too, could alter things.
US demographics good for the second half of the solar cycle, hence I included it.
From figures:
“spending wave” (2013/04/22apr201323.jpg)
“P/E ration and M/O ratio” (2013/04/22apr201324.gif)
“Market and maturing population” (2013/04/22apr201320.png)
it looks a bit risky to invest on todays high p/e levels.
As you commented second half of solar cycle seems to be better. But between now and 2015 we might expect p/e moving to more atractive values.
Therefore I was supprised you put US into your best tier together with brasil and india. How would you time investments in those countries ?
Refering to climate scientists I was thinking about people like – Piers Corbyn, MA Vukcevic, and others who see connection between our solar system and climate.
reg.
Pawel
Wow, lucky you! Congrats! Austria has some of the most spectacular scenery on the planet. A good friend of mine, who was born there but lived all his life in the US, moved back there three or four years ago, met a local gal and married her. He’s quite happy there, hikes a lot, skis in the winter, and posts stunning pix on his FB page.
Some day I’ll make the trip and look you up when that happens.
Good luck with the move!
Thanks Greg, hope you do
John, good luck with your move to Austria. A big change like this rings well with the Chinese astrology snake sign of it being a year of change for all in one way or another. I think in Western astrology the planets alignments also support this now. (Can’t speak to the solar cycles yet haha)
Thanks David
Taken profits on Hang Seng long this a.m.
I think this could throw a monkey wrench in some long term demographics projections here and there. More and more people’s income does no longer depend on where they are (investors, internet connected businesses, artists,..). More of these people will start moving to the place that offers them the best “package deal” (climate, taxes, lifestyle,…). I picked up residence in Bulgaria 11 years ago and never looked back. 10% flat tax, no such things like capital gains tax, the government basically leaves you alone. And I can still spend my time where I want to spend it. For example I hop into neighboring Greece from time to time. It amazes me that not more people are doing this, given the high tax rates in some European countries.
But maybe that’s starting to change. John is moving to Austria, Despe is going to Slovakia.. Language is actually the main barrier.
Good point Danny. Within the EU it is very easy. Around the world a lot of countries have tightened though in recent times. UAE is one that has encouraged it and 90% immigrants have done this to the demographics:
http://populationpyramid.net/United+Arab+Emirates/2015/
At first glance it looks ideal for the stock market, and maybe it is, but I’m not so sure as it is a lot of transient men. Anyone got a view on this?
I think the demographics equation is also changing in other ways. Until very recently, most people could only conveniently buy stocks in their own country. But nowadays, online brokers and country etf has made it very easy to diversify internationally.
So, up to 10 years ago, if a country had more retired people (who are net sellers of stocks) than middle aged people (net buyers) then that would put downward pressure on that country’s stock market. But what if these middle aged people buy Indonesia funds or Australian stocks, rather than the stocks that trade on their national exchange?
It means that demographics trends will become less relevant for a given country’s stock market. It will keep working in emerging countries, where most people can still only buy their own market. But in developed countries it’s becoming a different story. Younger people in US or Europe may consider it more sexy to have some Brasil funds in their portfolio. When they are retired they will then become net sellers of Brasil fund.
The same with immigrants. They can change the population pyramid, like we see for Dubai. But that doesn’t mean these immigrants start buying stocks on the Dubai market, they may just keep buying stocks in their home country. Just like your moving to Austria will not mean you start trading Austrian stocks only.
If investors continue the trend to more international diversification, then logically demographics based investing will stop working in the way it used to do.
I agree to this. I live in Sweden but wanna go somewhere else within 3 years. My parents came here from Poland but I studied all over the place. I actually like the consolidation of EU and do not see the problems of cultures the way some people say it is. I think high skilled workers are becoming more and more similar all over EU.
Any suggestions of nice places with warm climate, beaches and low tax? 😉
Storm ongoing…
Here is a nice gold call at 10,000 ;).
http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold-price-042520131
Isreal population piramide and sustainable robust growth looks impresive.
http://populationpyramid.net/Israel/2015/
Very healthy prospects for Israel, indeed. However, geo-political tensions pose the main risk to Israel’s path to prosperity.
Regarding the population pyramids and demographic projections, we should remember that those projections are speculative and tend to be based on extrapolating current trends. People, policy and social mood all can change. Easier immigration laws, child tax credits, etc. While the next 10 years or so may be baked in the cake, beyond that is really anybody’s guess. Perhaps the BOJ/Japan decides to start paying young women to bear and raise a new generation of children with all of the yen they are fabricating? Perhaps the US legalizes many drugs and the Mexican economy gets healthy to the point that the migration flows reverse? Just thinking out loud…
Hi John
Looks like the left-translated 6month wave/cycle in Norway has been neutralized by the moneyprinters (like US). SPX is not looking like a bearish left-translated 6month wave, which means we should make a higher low in May-June, and test the tops in the fall.
Interesting that there has been QE right at the three last 6month tops (LTRO2, QE3 and Japan), which may has prevented bearish corrections thereafter.
So I am looking for a cycle low in May-June, and a rally up to ~September. Then evaluate whether things look weak/toppish/bearish wave, and whether we break the pattern with QEs…
Jan 🙂
May put options on the indices are very expensive compared to other months historically. Bets or on sell in May.
Looks like a large reversed HS on the SPY so maybe we break out next week to new highs. Picked up some SD shares for the long haul.
on the 5 min SPY that is.
I am getting scenarios for a top around next weekend. And that fits with the ~1month cycle, FOMC, new month and employment-numbers often gives a market reversal within few days…
My bets are on late May/Jun as per Bradley and plants stuff. Picked up some JCP on the pump from Soros for a quick reverse before late May =). Gotta do some more research on that solar wind when I have some more time.
SPX has had a 70-80 TD cycle/oscillation since 2007, that probably is connected with a ~4 month plantary cycle and variation in solar flux/geomagnetic disturbances. Most of the time the market cycle is in phase with the cycle.
Right now SPX is more than 40 days since last oscillation low in late Feb, and on average the oscillation tops around day 50, which is around next week-end.
Also notice we had Kp=5 (solar storm) today, which is bearish, but often produces a 3-4 day squeeze first.
So the 70-80TD wave-top should be very near, but I think this dip will be bought (who stays short ahead of FOMC?), and produce a last squeeze up to Nonfarm-numbers, and if they are good we may overshoot a couple days into next week.
In NYUD we have a cash build-up and T-projection (a-la Terry Laundry) that says top in about 1 week. See second chart from bottom here:
http://www.sibet.org/free/stockcharts.html
I think you are correct. But I also think some stocks may behave a bit differently. Checking a theory I have about short squeezes.
Hi, John, look at this: http://time-price-research-astrofin.blogspot.com.es/2013/04/geomagnetic-storm.html
solar storm means volatility, and normally (eventually) some kind of deep downswing. If the market is overbought and set up for a downswing, it can come immediately. If the market is oversold or has consolidated, the solar storm can produce wild squeezes first (and sometimes it just breaks down from an allready oversold condition).
So it is often difficult to see the result, but the bias is for volatility and eventually some downside.
Here is the Norwegian index and the latest storms indicated.
The first one happende at a consolidation and produced upside. When it was about to roll over, we had another storm that fueled selling. The third happende at an oversold condition and produced a bounce, before continued downside.
So what to expect from todays storm? I am looking for a squeeze to flush the short-stops at the previous high, before we roll over. The squeeze may fail, but it was seems most obvious right now 🙂
solar storm means fear, and bears are most often the easiest to frighten. Right now SPX is in an upswing, and anyone being short will fear a breakout 1600+. It could end up as some kind of double top, but the longer we stay here without breaking down, the squeeze get closer.
Bulls also feel the fear and wont be very bullish here. But they see the obvious squeeze-setup, and will try to play it to take profit at say ~1610. When they all take profit, and the bears have covered, there are no more buyers, and the panic selling can begin 🙂
You read my mind Jan =). I have to say though that my mood was shitty today so it must be the storm.
Hey John, ive sent you a mail, i live close to vorarlberg… If you need any
assistance let me know! 😉
For those who are interested, my article about long term commodity cycle is now ready: http://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/04/27/long-term-commodity-price-cycle/
Interesting stuff. Thanks Danny. Has anyone done some research on long term real estate correlation with solar? The Herengracht index is probably the longest index there is or does anyone know about others?
http://tinyurl.com/d929ebl
Great analysis, Danny!!
National Bank of Greece (NBK) may also be a quick short squeeze flip – reminds me of IRE pattern last year. A lot of volume was pushed Friday and capital infusion vote is the 29th. Think the cycle does not work very well for stocks like this – flat liners that is. But if you have any ideas contrary please let me know. Storms may…
Indication of solar max passing us?
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/04/26/second-coldest-start-to-spring-in-us-history/
Yes, it’s increasingly likely that Landscheidt, Abdussamatov, Corbyn and others will be right with their mini ice-age forecast. That’s also how it started in the 17th century, as described in Geoffrey Parker’s new book. People were surprised by suddenly much colder and longer winters, late frosts destroying their young plants and generally shorter growing seasons. Eventually they adapted by planting later (or choosing a different crop), but by then the famines had already killed a lot of people. We know these paintings showing how the Thames in London was frozen, but also in Southern Europe it was very cold as in some years you could even cross the Bosporus in Istanbul over the ice. Best places to be (and invest) if such a global cooling strikes again: the tropics and the Southern hemisphere.
Maybe this is what finally pops the Nordic housing bubble we have. Got to study the effects of climate and solar with regards to real estate. But the effects should be similar.
I particularly thought it was interesting the last cold year was 1975. The data isn’t entirely accurate.
does this link work?
http://sibet.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=downloadattachment&board=general&thread=20&post=3508&key=KpVFfN9z7MdpdEO6l1YD
Shows that tick moneyflow has been oversold for 6 weeks, while SPX hasnt been oversold (target ~1500). And from the moneyflow-correlation the “correct” price is now about SPX 1420.
Such divergences can last for a while, but my oscillators are about to roll over for SPX. The best setup would be a final squeeze topping around next weekend…
better link: http://www.sibet.org/images/2013/20130428a.jpg
Very interesting. How does this model work in a market that is breaking out say pre 2008?
Long term I have a ~40 and ~80 year cycle in DOW. I also have some similar planetary/solar-cycles, but have not yet concluded exactly how these work and which ones that are correct.
So far this is perhaps my best cycle (~43 years). DOW is also doing a 80-year low here, and the cycles suggest sideways market for another ~10 years
Regarding sunspot cycles, I expect the next SC25 to be weak, but not any Grand minimum here (like Maunder). This is a regular Gleissberg minimum like the Dalton.
Why only a Dalton?
Robert
I have done alot of work on the sunspotcycles, and am pretty sure I have a general idea of how they work based on planetary cycles. But I dont know the excact physical explaination, but it is probably related to the solar wobble and tidal effects.
On the small scale this is a difficult SC24, and it is not acting quite as I expected. But the sun is a messy place, and there are limits to forecasting. The spike in sunspot activity in 2011 “shouldnt have happened” (just like an anomalous short-squeeze). So excluding that one, the 2012 sunspot-top could have been the real one. Another possibility is this summer-fall (doesnt look like it will happen), and the last alternative is winter 2014, but that would be a bit in conflict with some of my work. Anyway the forecast was :
It estimates a SC24 of SSN ~75 and length ~12 years (ending around Aprill 2021)
SC24-maximum should be around summer 2013 (+/- 1 year)
http://home.broadpark.no/~elic/solarcycle3.html
Regarding Grand minima like the Maunder, it is caused by what I call a “collapse” (just like my collapsing left-translated 6month wave in stockmarked).
I havent figured out excactly how these occur – but I have found a set of parameters that set up the possibility of a Maunder. And these parameters dont seem to be occuring now. Next time seems to be around year 2070 I think (the next Gleissberg low).
Gleissberg-lows occur every ~90 years, and a Maunder-minimum occurs when the cycle in between fails to start. This Gleissberg minimum came very late (about 120 years after the previous).
There was a setup in the 1970s, but we didnt get the Gleissberg then, so it was postponed till now.
Hi Robert. I only have numbers going back to 2010…
See the long lasting divergnece in 2011. It began however with some strange numbers around Xmas 2010, so dunno if that divergence rally started that early.
Also see the long divergence at the 2012-top, and now we have another one…
Robert
You can read some more here:
http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/thread/324?page=12
from my memory the easy explaination is: A Gleissberg low is typically two weak sunspot cycles. They “slow down” the Sun.
The third sunspotcycle should kickstart the next Gleissberg cycle, but if (of some reason) the third cycle is “sabotaged”, the Sun slows down so much that it goes into depression, and cannot start until the next Gleissberg low is finished and the next Gleissberg cycle starts.
The tricky bit is what sabotages the third cycle? A common facto seems to be that we are close to an Uranus-Neptun-conjunction (maybe also oppositions can do this). Such influence from UrNe disturbs the solar wobble and the dominant Jupiter-Saturn cycle. BUT that doesnt seem to be enough – there seems also to be some factor from the shorter planetary cycles to be present.
NOW, SC24+25 should be the Gleissberg low, and the SC26 starting around year 2025 should kick-start the next Gleissberg cycle. And around year 2025 we dont have any influence from UrNe, so no sabotage should be expected.
no, it has to be UrNe conjuntion. The last one was year ~1990 and the next will be year ~2170. I am a bit rusty on this right now, but I think me missed the maunder-opportunity this time, and the next will be from around 2170…
http://www.cnn.com/video/?hpt=hp_c3#/video/bestoftv/2013/04/27/idesk-mann-mohr-saturn-views.cnn
The only thing that makes me unsure about the timing of it all. The bear coming. What I lack is sort of complacency in the papers and the sky being the limit etc talk i.e Gold or Apple. In 2008 I had a different feeling. It was obvious the collapse would come. Now, the only thing that scares me is that some of my friends are buying those Stockholm flats leveraging up wanting to use their home as a printing press – some the same people that sold at the bottom. But except for that there is still fear in the market. 2000 there was complacency. 2008 was enormous. Now it is tragedy every day still. I am sort of lacking those signs but maybe someone else has a better view. Every blog I read is saying bear. That is sort of what scares me. Everyone is bearish but then it does not happen.
In Norway the mood seems to be buy-buy-buy… but the market has really struggeled since 2011. I hear people on Bloomberg say “this is 2004” and that we should begin to take off soon (of course alot of bears too)
Norway has been in a 30-year upchannel, basically explained by inflation and dividend-adjustment. So far the “world is basically the same”.
BUT I dont think the world is the same as the last 30-years. This time there is not much more credit-potential in the households (record high in Norway… still high in US). And government debt is also high around.
I think many participants expects us to take off into another usual bubble, and touching the top of the 30-year channel in Norway. But so far we cant get above the mid-channel, and have stayed below it unusual long now. And there allready is a housing-bubble in Norway… and the oil-income is starting to break down from its channel over the last 30-years.
I think we soon will see (in Norway and else) that things HAVE changed, and that we cannot produce any more bubbles and euphoria. And we will start to break down from 30-year channels, and pop the housing bubbles.
We have massive QEs, but compared to the leverage that is stil out there, QE is insignificant. I think it is there to prevent deflation, and they should sooon start to loose the battle.
But the game is still on, and we may stretch this for another 6-12 months. Have to see the cycle-low in the summer, and how the next cycle in the fall behaves. And if we break the pattern of new QEs at the top of the cycle (like LTRO2, QE3 and Japan)
Very good point.
looking back to the previos deflation/depression in the 1930-40s, the US (and probably others) got out of it decpite high government debt, because of low houshold debt… and the hidden dedt from pension-liabilities (which also gave less saving)
After the 1970-stagflation the government debt started to take off again, and didnt shrink in the good times 1990-2000.
This time we have high houshold debt, government debt, and think corporate debt probably also is high. And the pension-debt is not fully acounted for.
So how to inflate out of this? China…? QE? hasnt China built 60 million empty homes or so? Will building slow soon (allready)? And does some trillion QE really matter if deleverage really begins in the west?
🙂
I totally agree with you.
Maybe we will have the year of Jubilee 😉 or revolutions and wars.
The only caveat is that when things look dark and we see some light in the tunnel then it is either the end of the tunnel or the freight train coming. So the question is which.
They say that the most expensive word in the English dictionary is “this time it is different” but the questions is what time we are in that clock called the universe ;).
Markets can be very irrational and by its reflexivity price determines funny-mentals so I just try to keep an open mind and never commit to either side too much.
right… about this time it is different. It is about perspective. It is dangerous to say this is different looking back say 30 years. But when looking back some hundred years, there have been periodically depressions. And have we really mechanisms that can withstand such this time – is it different? 🙂
But as you say… dont get hang up in fundamentals, and follow the market. Unfortunatly that is how the market is…. and the music goes on until we sink 🙂
I didnt read Johns article at the top before now 🙂
Here is population growth in Norway
It has lows around my ~40 year cycle
It is high now, because of the still present oil-boom and immigrants/guest-workers. And this also fuels our housing-bubble.
Now as the oil-income is about to break down from its channel, I think Norway will start to stagnate, the gues-workers may disappear, and soon the population growth should make its 40-year low, maybe in some ~10 years
More unemployed Swedes ;).
That graph is very interesting about Norway. Think the pattern is probably similar in Sweden just not the oil and gas exposure. The funny-mental mantra in Stockholm residential market has always been the flow of new people but when I look at through these eyes – I think the funny-mentals just died. If populations start shrinking which they may just by similar reasons as in Norway. Especially immigration will probably lessen given political winds. And then John’s beautiful demographic ideas could hold.
buying opportunity or omen?
Does anyone have a chart going way back?
If you search for “pig iron” you should find at least 100 years of price history for “steel”. I have seen it before, but don’t remember exactly where.
Analysis, amalgamation, facts, analogies…headache:) Isn’t it healthier to just rely on intuition? Animals use 6th sense and it guides them well. Let’s relax and connect to the universal mind for any kind of answers:) There is too many unknowns for the logical mind to properly assess the reality. When I look at the map of the world, I see South America. Do I need to know why? The best way to understand a country or economy is to visit the country. I loved Malta, but I wouldn’t live there. Too hot, too crowded? Or fresh water supply issues? I loved Antibes, Bordeaux, but I don’t like the French economy. Is it that young over-educated generation that cannot compete with upper classes? Or so many NPPs? When I went to Bulgaria, I was depressed to see so many houses falling apart. I sun-burnt my face climbing Musala. I was put off seeing sewage flowing into the sea very next to the beach in Balchik. But I returned rested and fresh as never before. Is this proper organic food or no electromagnetic pollution? Or people who were not trained at school to spy on your neighbor and to whistleblow?
Think you are right. Just use a horizontal line and trade. =)
…….or simply go with Bradley http://www.robertew.com/invest/bradley/br2013.jpg
Thanks John and all contributors for thoughtful interpretations.
Thank you all for some excellent comments and information.
By the way, here is a good article about the little ice age, with several long term charts showing the years of major famines: http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/lia/little_ice_age.html
John
SC23 was the longest in 100 years, and SC24 was a slow starter. This has probably distrubed the ~10 year cycle in markets.
One way of seeing this, is that the period ~2004-2008 was an “extra cycle”.
And the consequence is that the 2011 crash is analog to 1987 and 1998.
Meaning that this rally 2011-2013 is analog to the 1990-top and 2000-top, and could have a top-target around this fall…
Here I have found a marker for when the sunspotcycle kicks off, and I compare DOW monthly from this marker.
That could suggest that we are very close to the bullmarket top now. Also see how mild the 1990-bearmarket was in DOW
BUT this sunspotcycle is longer/slow starter compared with the previous, so comparing from SC-begin could be somewhat wrong
Thanks guys