S O L A R C Y C L E S

With John Hampson

End Of The Mania

The irrationality¬†continues, but not for much longer. After last year’s solar maximum, the cross-asset picture changed. Global stocks entered into a topping range whilst money flowed into the US dollar … Continue reading

March 22, 2015 · 244 Comments

ZIRP vs Solar

US economic surprises are now at their worst level since 2009: Source: Bloomberg / Jessie Felder A trio of such bad data releases are charted here: retail sales, wholesale sales … Continue reading

March 15, 2015 · 441 Comments

State Of The Markets

1. Commercial positioning in the EuroDollar is extreme, suggesting a significant reversal should be at hand: Source: Dana Lyons 2. Gold positioning is not at the same extreme. The positioning … Continue reading

March 8, 2015 · 434 Comments

Saturation Again

We have many historically reliable indicators of a major stock market peak in place: valuations, sentiment, allocations, leverage, negative divergences, risk-off money flows, all¬†clustering around the smoothed solar maximum of … Continue reading

March 1, 2015 · 292 Comments

Weekend Updates

1. US stocks to bonds and to dollar ratios continue to show a clear top mid-2014: Source: Stockcharts 2. Dow Jones World stock index shows a peak the same as … Continue reading

February 22, 2015 · 260 Comments

Behold

New highs in US equities despite… 1. Valuations on a par with the 1929 peak 2. Sentiment extreme lopsided (II 3.5x bulls vs bears, NAAIM 84% bulls) 3. Allocations to … Continue reading

February 14, 2015 · 344 Comments

Not So Different After All?

Comparing the 2000, 2007 and 2011 peaks to 2014-15. Taking 2000 first, as that was the last solar maximum pre-2014 and therefore the most relevant, I’m using several measures that … Continue reading

February 6, 2015 · 343 Comments

The Old Rules

Extremely stretched valuations, highly lop-sided sentiment and allocations, excessive leverage, long-standing negative divergences, persistent shift to defensives, negative leading indicators, disappointing earnings, declining financial conditions: these are some of the … Continue reading

February 4, 2015 · 113 Comments

Charts Updates

The big picture looks like this: Source: Stockcharts Global stocks, commodities and the world’s reserve currency turning in unison at the end of June 2014. Extreme lop-sided positioning in the … Continue reading

January 28, 2015 · 245 Comments

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