Ultra Long Term Models
Solar Cycles are ~11 years. Secular Risk Asset cycles ~33 years (peak to peak or bottom to bottom). Treasury or interest rate cycles ~66 years. The combined idealised model produces a full cycle of 66 years consisting of two 22 year and two 11 year ‘seasons’, which align with Kondratieff seasons in logic and characteristics.
Secular peaks in stocks occur around every 33 years, one luni-solar cycle, and occur close to the solar maximum. Secular commodities peaks also occur around every 33 years, one luni-solar cycle, and occur close to the solar maxium.
A secular nominal bottom, panic or crash occurs within 2 years of a solar minimum.
Peaks in inflation correspond to solar maximums, troughs to solar minimums. The biggest peaks in inflation correspond to commodity bull market peaks, marked C.
Recessions follow solar cycle peaks, corresponding to the peaks in geomagnetism that lag solar maximums.
The 4 year period from solar minimum to solar maximum is typically one of growth and strong stock market gains. Crashes, panics and bottoms typically occur around solar minima. US secular stocks bulls last around 24 years, or 2 solar cycles. Secular commodity bulls last around 12 years, or 1 solar cycle.
Real (inflation-adjusted) stock prices are in a long term uptrend and follow a sine-wave of 33 year repetition.
Real (inflation-adjusted) commodities are flat over the long term, and follow a sine-wave of 33 year repetition, but of opposite polarity to stocks.
The Dow-Gold ratio is in a long term uptrend and also follows a sine-wave of 33 year repetition.
Just some nit picking. My data shows commodities peaked in 1920, not 1918. My data also shows 1954 as the top for commodities not 1948.It was a triple top in 1948, 1951 and 1954. 1980 looks right on. This seems to indicate commodities peak after the max. So 2014-2015? However cycle 24 is such a puny thing, it better get going or it could have already peaked. Elliott wave speaking, commodities look like they are in a massive 5 wave count up from 1933 with and extremely extended 5th. It has room for a 5 of a 5 but it could also be over.
Hi Kent – Metals peaked 1916, agri 1917, oil 1920; CCI index peaked circa Oct/Nov 1947 and then echoed again in 1951, but the stocks secular bull took off as of 1949, so in terms of timing it was exit commodities 1947/8 get into stocks 1949.
1916 to 1920 4yrs. 1947 to 1951 4 yrs. 2008 to 2012 ? You are probably right, but this era is looking more and more like Gann’s Master Time Factor (60 yr cycle) ie 2009 is 1949. So long term investments are stocks and RE. Commodities and bonds are sells. This certain fits the zeitgeist in a contrarian sense. The market is in position to get really nailed now. If it only corrects, I think it would be extremely bullish.
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Excellent stuff you organized on this site John. Many thanx !
I’m curious re: 1800′s data, esp. 1890′s because 120 yr cycle a.k.a. Kress Cycle bottomed in 1894. Neowave has Gold likely having peaked 2011-8 ~ 1.5 yr ahead of your forecast. Oil peaked in 2006, Copper + Silverpeaked in early 2011. WTIC +
Dr Copper has been below 200 d MA and getting close to breaking down Hd + Sh
formation declaring deflation. Today’s flash crash in gold, silver + new low in copper
probably reflect early wave 3 of C ‘waterfall tumble’ a.k.a. ‘wonder to behold’ and aligns well with Historical seasonality of your 1 yr chart. Weekly RSI’s still has significant room to fall.
When Dr Copper officially declare ‘Deflation’ and Gold confirms it by getting to ~1553 then these will be additional evidences that commodities already peaked in 2006(oil) -> 2011(AU, Ag, Cu)-> 2012-summer ( Agric’s). I anticipate a major bottom in mid Dec 2012 for stocks + commodities. That will be a huge rally in wave C of 2 x 3-4 months but will not exceed 2011-8.
Given QE 3 has already fizzled, after having achieved Super Sucker Rally in wave b
B of 2 fr May-Jul > Oct 1, and all the world’s Central Banks having used up up their ammo, it’s difficult to imagine how they’ll induce super inflationary ‘pop’ to coincide with your projection.
We defintely had the ‘Shock’ in 2005-2006 (U.S. Housing start of Housing Bubble Burst) -> 2008-2009 (stocks + commodities) -> then the QE’s to induce the ‘Pop’ – artificially induced Sucker Rally lasting 5 long years.
We’re probably in ‘Drop’ phase already > 2011-8 with Gold’s top.
It’d be interesting to study 1800′s, esp 1890′s data to see if 120 yr cycle bottomed
~1.5 yr ahead of Solar activity spike.
If it’s not the case then perhaps one can attribute the earlier onset of DEFLATION
/ THE DROP to CRUSHING LOAD of 800 pound Gorilla of CREDIT CREATION of
~100 years of Central Banks + Fractional Banking system.
Most definitely volatile, Bunge jumping era of gut wrenching seemingly bottomless
fall followed by snap back rallies.
Glad to have found a kindred spirit. Thanx again for your analysis.
Kinda like a Unified Theory of Solar system + Human History.
We must NOT forget the Creator Lord God though who blesses us with wherewithal
to have interest, desire, talent, gifts and wisdom to discern patterns in Nature
and live with divine wisdom that truly only resides + emanates from Triune God
Father, Son Lord Jesus Christ & Holy Spirit.
Hallelujah, to Triune God be the Glory, Honour + Power for they’re worthy of our
worship when we observe and marvel at all He/They have created and keep the
entire Heavens + Earth travelling in time + space in AWESOME beauty, complexity
magnitude.
Human History you see is really ‘His’ Story of Creating us and interacting with us,
the highest form of His creation.
TBLB
Just relooked at Peaks in Inflation & Solar Maximum chart. In 1924-25 Commodities
peaked ahead of 1928 Solar Maximum and solar maximum was the weakest of first 5 shown. Interestingly forecast 2013 Solar Maximum is anticipated to be weakest since 1905 peak. So it stands to reason that Commodity peak has also peaked in present
cycle. Time will tell. Take Good care. Shalom !
Thanks for your thoughts.