With John Hampson
Solar Cycles are ~11 years. Secular Risk Asset cycles ~33 years (peak to peak or bottom to bottom). Treasury or interest rate cycles ~66 years. The combined idealised model produces a full cycle of 66 years consisting of two 22 year and two 11 year ‘seasons’, which align with Kondratieff seasons in logic and characteristics.
Secular peaks in stocks occur around every 33 years, one luni-solar cycle, and occur close to the solar maximum. Secular commodities peaks also occur around every 33 years, one luni-solar cycle, and occur close to the solar maxium.
A secular nominal bottom, panic or crash occurs within 2 years of a solar minimum.
Peaks in inflation correspond to solar maximums, troughs to solar minimums. The biggest peaks in inflation correspond to commodity bull market peaks, marked C.
Recessions follow solar cycle peaks, corresponding to the peaks in geomagnetism that lag solar maximums.
The 4 year period from solar minimum to solar maximum is typically one of growth and strong stock market gains. Crashes, panics and bottoms typically occur around solar minima. US secular stocks bulls last around 24 years, or 2 solar cycles. Secular commodity bulls last around 12 years, or 1 solar cycle.
Real (inflation-adjusted) stock prices are in a long term uptrend and follow a sine-wave of 33 year repetition.
Real (inflation-adjusted) commodities are flat over the long term, and follow a sine-wave of 33 year repetition, but of opposite polarity to stocks.
The Dow-Gold ratio is in a long term uptrend and also follows a sine-wave of 33 year repetition.