Timetables
A roadmap to 2050, drawing together trend extrapolation and cycles.
Nature is dominated by cycles. Human life and human systems are subservient to and synchronized to these cycles.
A Financial / Economic / Solar Timetable, showing the relationships between solar, secular asset and inflation peaks, recessions and geomagnetism peaks.
I like this John
Fantastic! I have using a combination of Wyckoff Method, Longwave Dynamics (http://thesilverfoxesden.blogspot.com) and Astro psychical analysis primarily the Bradley Siderograph and sunspot activity to identify potential turning points, for years after listening to an interview with Arch Crawford on Wall Street Uncut. Mr. Crawford explained how he monitored Sunspot and geomagnetic effects to trade the markets. Your paper is outstanding and I look forward being a regular visitor to your site well done!
Thanks Russ. Have visited your site.
I liked very much the roadmap to 2050, however I did not understand why the secular bear and bull markets differs from yours ultra long term models. The roadmap to 2050 has fewer secular bear and bull markets if compared to the ultra long term models. Your roadmap to 2050 indicates a very important bottom in 2013-2014 from when it will start a secular bull market until 2033-2034, ok ? Thanks !
Hi Thiago, I’m not quite seeing the difference, but I need to make some slight amends to both in light of new finding this week. So watch this space.
Thanks a lot. Just as an example: The year 2019, the roadmap to 2050 sees it as part of a secular bull market, however the ultra long term models sees it as an important bottom in stocks. Get it? Thanks again !
Got you!
So, which one is correct ? The roadmap to 2050 does not see 2009 as an important bottom, but 2014. However, you say 2009. I am confused. Thanks
The amended version is coming Thiago. Just working on it.
Timeline updated.
Dear John,
Many thanks for this amazing page and your incredible diligence!
Would it be possible for you to add one extra row into your Roadmap to 2050 regarding the strength of USD? I assume that it also evolves in cycles and it would be interesting to see it in comparison with stock and commodity cycles.
Thank you!
Hi Milan, that’s one I’d have to look in to – so maybe in the future.
Hi John, thank you! I would also like to ask you if you have thought about compatibility between solar (geomagnetism) and Kondratieff waves. K-waves usually last about 55 years which could correspond to 5 11-year solar cycles maybe…
But based on interpretations of K-waves and similar cycles in the article http://www.safehaven.com/article/24963/chart-of-the-week-stifel-nicolaus-cycles I am afraid that their predictions of commodity prices do not quite correspond with those based on solar peaks.
Best Regards.
Hi Milan, I’ve studied both the Kondratieff waves and Stifel Nicholaus stuff. My take is they both approximate what’s going on in terms of asset cycles, but that it is solar cycles that are accurate and the real influence.
Hi John,
I have been fairly busy recently and with good reason:
“The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle.
Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000, 2007 and 2013.”
I have written a book and it is going to be published in Feb 2013, by a proper publisher. I have alluded to some cycle work that I have been doing and this is it. The good reaction to my blog articles and having them published on various websites gave me the confidence to try something bigger and my initial ideas grew to become a book.
This book is based purely on repeating cyclical patterns that I have observed in the stock market (nothing planetary) and I used empirical observation to demonstrate their existence. However I think you and your readers will be interested. That’s all I can say for now but I have some links on my new website and I will let you know more nearer Feb 2013 (the date of publication).
http://www.17yearstockmarketcycle.com
GL and safe travels.
Kerry
Hi Kerry, respect for putting in the dedication to write a book – but – it doesn’t square at all with my own research. Two questions: (1) what is the logical or scientific reasoning for a 17.6 year cycle? and (2) if it exists how come it doesn’t show up on a US stock market spectrogram?
Hi John,
I appreciate that it doesn’t fit with your own research but the more I looked into this the more I was drawn to a (17-18) 17.6 year stock market cycle.
The book essentially describes the reasoning behind the cycle, how I got there and also identifies intermediate turning points during the bull and bear cycles.
Andrey V. Korotayev and Sergey V. Tsirel found a 17-18 year cycle in world gdp dynamics, which I know is different to the stock markets, but I have used this to build up my argument.
http://escholarship.org/uc/item/9jv108xp#page-13
I don’t want to go into detail until publication but I thought I’d share this pre-publication info with you. The 17.6 year stock market cycle is not based on solar cycles so we are not going to be aligned in our thinking. However different thought processes can aid comon understanding Plus I keep reading your blog which shows I like your work.
Kerry
Excellent Natural Cycle Work!
This cycle has always intrigued me. Insiide Track letter has detailed a 17+-year cycle since at least 2007. Back then, they described this cycle and broke it down into cycles of 2 years & 2 months, 4 years & 4 months and about 8 years and 8 months – explaining how the stock market traded in these rhythms going back to the 1830′s. This series was also carried in various magazines. They have posted a slew of articles and research on the 17+ year cycle for the past 6 years and I just checked and they are still posted on their website (http://www.insiidetrack.com/pdf/200707INSIIDETrackSR17YearCycleexc.pdf). Is this 17.6 year cycle any different?