With John Hampson

Comparison to 1929

Hat tips to Mark, John Li and Chien Jen. So what’s similar to 1929? A stock market mania to extreme valuations. Source: D Short A similar low intensity solar cycle. … Continue reading

June 17, 2015 · 55 Comments

Is This ‘It’?

Why might it be? The triple confluence peak of peak speculation: the new moon closest to the seasonal geomagnetic peak closest to the smoothed solar maximum: 27th June 2014. Many … Continue reading

June 16, 2015 · 34 Comments

The Conundrum Of Our Times Part 2

Let’s now draw in the solar cycle. Here are US equity valuations by Q ratio versus solar maxima over the last century. A relation becomes apparent with secular lows and … Continue reading

June 15, 2015 · 56 Comments

The Conundrum Of Our Times Part 1

This is a complex time to trade the financial markets. We are trying to forecast against a backdrop of prolonged ultra low rates, collective quantitative easing programmes, united demographic downtrends and extreme debt levels … Continue reading

June 12, 2015 · 117 Comments

Global Economy

The world economy is currently in trouble, showing both recessionary and deflationary coincident data: Source: Ned DavisSource: GaveKal Given these, the resilience of equity markets has been pretty amazing, even more so as … Continue reading

June 10, 2015 · 58 Comments

The Influence Of The Solar Maximum

The smoothed solar maximum occurred mid-2014. Source: Solen Financial Conditions peaked mid-2014. Source: Bloomberg World earnings peaked mid-2014. Source: Schwab US IPOs peaked then. Source: Marketwatch Buybacks peaked then. Source: … Continue reading

June 3, 2015 · 243 Comments

Debt And Demographics Dictating

Ever since 2009 analysts in the developed world have largely expected a return to ‘normal’ economic growth and inflation, the kind that necessitates a gradual tightening of interest rates to … Continue reading

May 30, 2015 · 113 Comments

On The Attack

Phasing more into long gold, short Dow, and opened ETF agri long. Don’t follow me… here is my case. Gold has been making a long base with rising underlying strength … Continue reading

May 15, 2015 · 412 Comments


In six charts. 1. Showing a 6 month negative divergence in breadth and strength like that in 2011: Source: Stockcharts 2. Plus a similar period of divergent money flows: Source: … Continue reading

May 11, 2015 · 179 Comments

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