S O L A R C Y C L E S

With John Hampson

Saturation Again

We have many historically reliable indicators of a major stock market peak in place: valuations, sentiment, allocations, leverage, negative divergences, risk-off money flows, all clustering around the smoothed solar maximum of … Continue reading

March 1, 2015 · 292 Comments

Weekend Updates

1. US stocks to bonds and to dollar ratios continue to show a clear top mid-2014: Source: Stockcharts 2. Dow Jones World stock index shows a peak the same as … Continue reading

February 22, 2015 · 260 Comments

Behold

New highs in US equities despite… 1. Valuations on a par with the 1929 peak 2. Sentiment extreme lopsided (II 3.5x bulls vs bears, NAAIM 84% bulls) 3. Allocations to … Continue reading

February 14, 2015 · 344 Comments

Not So Different After All?

Comparing the 2000, 2007 and 2011 peaks to 2014-15. Taking 2000 first, as that was the last solar maximum pre-2014 and therefore the most relevant, I’m using several measures that … Continue reading

February 6, 2015 · 344 Comments

The Old Rules

Extremely stretched valuations, highly lop-sided sentiment and allocations, excessive leverage, long-standing negative divergences, persistent shift to defensives, negative leading indicators, disappointing earnings, declining financial conditions: these are some of the … Continue reading

February 4, 2015 · 113 Comments

Charts Updates

The big picture looks like this: Source: Stockcharts Global stocks, commodities and the world’s reserve currency turning in unison at the end of June 2014. Extreme lop-sided positioning in the … Continue reading

January 28, 2015 · 245 Comments

3 Exact Dates

As we wait for the ECB decision and market reaction, I see 3 exact dates being revealed that align with my ‘triple confluence peaks’ idea, i.e. we are seeing major market peaks … Continue reading

January 22, 2015 · 216 Comments

Saturday Markets Update

Stocks ended the week on some buying. We are approaching this coming Tuesday’s new moon and Thursday’s ECB meeting, at which we should expect some kind of QE or new … Continue reading

January 17, 2015 · 180 Comments

Solar Models

Solar maxima generate speculation peaks. The latest smoothed solar maximum is likely to have been April 2014. The chief speculation target has been equities, particularly US equities. That mania is … Continue reading

January 14, 2015 · 182 Comments

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