S O L A R C Y C L E S

With John Hampson

Short Term Clues

The Dow, Biotech and Junk bonds are all still flirting with double tops and are unresolved at the time of writing, though JNK has been the most repelled (Stockcharts): In … Continue reading

September 9, 2014 · 134 Comments

Characteristics Of A Stock Market Peak

Focussing on the US stock market, I’ll divide this into two: what’s currently flagging a peak, and what’s – arguably – missing. First, the different angles and disciplines that are signalling … Continue reading

September 8, 2014 · 60 Comments

As Things Stand

The stock market topping process began at the turn of the year: Speculation peaked in Feb/Mar along with the likely smoothed solar maximum: So, topping process phase 1: turn of the year risk … Continue reading

September 4, 2014 · 148 Comments

Last 30 Years

MSCI world equity index valuation chart for the last 30 years: Source: Investec The overall dotted line trend matches the black global demographics composite in the next two charts: Conventional … Continue reading

September 3, 2014 · 59 Comments

US Stock Market Valuation

Firstly, trailing 12m p/e valuation. This chart clearly shows this measure is a rather useless tool, and can be disregarded: Source: D Short Secondly, forward p/e (12m) valuation. This measure … Continue reading

September 1, 2014 · 73 Comments

Last Trading Day Of August

The most likely scenario is August closes around the current highs on another day of ultra low volume. I expect margin debt for August will challenge the February highs. By history, … Continue reading

August 29, 2014 · 120 Comments

Last 18 Months

Over the last 18 months, US equities rose on 80% multiple expansion and just 20% earnings, and they diverged from economic fundamentals. Source: Yardeni Institutions were net sellers in this … Continue reading

August 28, 2014 · 75 Comments

The Alternatives

Alternative 1: The Bull Is Safe Stocks are in a new secular bull market. This cyclical bull began from the low in 2011. The economy is recovering and we need a … Continue reading

August 25, 2014 · 201 Comments

Short Term Update

With Monday being August’s new moon, we arrive at the last higher-probability topping point mid-year 2014 for those indices which have not yet topped out: With SP500 and Nasdaq overbought … Continue reading

August 22, 2014 · 88 Comments

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