With John Hampson
Secular bull markets end around solar cycle peaks. The last secular peak (in stocks) occured at the same time as the last solar peak in March 2000. The next solar peak is forecast to occur in 2013 with a secular peak in commodities. The two are compared below.
The period into the solar maximum is one of rising sunspots, correlated with positive market returns. The period after the solar maximum is one of increasing geomagnetism, correlated with negative market returns. An excessive mania is typical in the secular bull asset into the peak, pulling away from the cumulative trend geomagnetism model.
Last Secular Peak: SP500 Stock Index versus Daily Sunspots
Last Secular Peak: SP500 Stock Index versus Daily Geomagnetism
Last Secular Peak: SP500 versus Cumulative Trend Geomagnetism Plus Lunar Phasing
Current Secular Peak: R/J CRB Commodities Index versus Daily Sunspots
Current Secular Peak: R/J CRB Commodities Index versus Daily Geomagnetism
Current Secular Peak: CRB versus Cumulative Trend Geomagnetism Plus Lunar Phasing