With John Hampson

The Macro Picture

An important week this week: more big earnings, first Q2 GDP release, FOMC and the last week of July. Stock price increases the last 2 years have been 80% multiple … Continue reading

July 29, 2014 · 59 Comments

Last Gasps

New moon this coming weekend and the seasonal geomagnetic model peak. SP500 is still in a topping range since July 3, with RSI and Vix divergences. Source: Stockcharts Skew continues … Continue reading

July 23, 2014 · 143 Comments

Second Chance Peak

Friday was a bullish fightback, but I still think the roll over is in gradual progress here. Here’s why I think the markets are at the second chance peak, rather than earlier … Continue reading

July 19, 2014 · 71 Comments

Charts For A US Stock Market Peak Here And Now

1. Put-call extremes plus negative divergence as per previous peaks: Source: Rory Handyside 2. Skew extremes and clustering greater than 2011 peak: Source: James Goode 3. Implied correlation volatility reflects … Continue reading

July 7, 2014 · 121 Comments

Burned By The Sun

The evidence for a speculation peak delivered at the solar maximum is better than I could have hoped, yet I’m on the wrong side of it and feeling the pain. … Continue reading

July 4, 2014 · 69 Comments

Three Peaks

By the end of 2013 we saw various divergences emerge that warned of a potential trend change ahead, and still do: The first major peak point occurred at the turn of the year, … Continue reading

July 1, 2014 · 97 Comments

As Things Stand

1. SP500: bulls still in charge, whilst put/call, vix and volume continue to warn of a likely pullback. 2. The speculative-target sectors and indices are still able to print double tops … Continue reading

June 24, 2014 · 52 Comments

Comparison to 1937

1937 was a solar maximum, like 2014, and notably the stock market peaked out despite negligible interest rates and with preceding QE, i.e. it was an atypical bull market end: … Continue reading

June 9, 2014 · 62 Comments

unintended break

This is John’s wife Gabi: Just to let you know that John is in hospital so won’t be posting at the moment.

March 23, 2014 · 244 Comments

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