With John Hampson

Last 18 Months

Over the last 18 months, US equities rose on 80% multiple expansion and just 20% earnings, and they diverged from economic fundamentals. Source: Yardeni Institutions were net sellers in this … Continue reading

August 28, 2014 · 75 Comments

The Alternatives

Alternative 1: The Bull Is Safe Stocks are in a new secular bull market. This cyclical bull began from the low in 2011. The economy is recovering and we need a … Continue reading

August 25, 2014 · 201 Comments

Short Term Update

With Monday being August’s new moon, we arrive at the last higher-probability topping point mid-year 2014 for those indices which have not yet topped out: With SP500 and Nasdaq overbought … Continue reading

August 22, 2014 · 88 Comments

Double Top Or Breakout

A double top here on the SP500 or another breakout to new highs? Below shows Aug 8th was another channel hold, so is it bull-business as usual or has something changed? … Continue reading

August 21, 2014 · 68 Comments

Failure High

The potential post-second-chance positioning was negated as the rally since the 8th August gained momentum, albeit out of hours momentum. So the question is whether this rally now produces the failure high … Continue reading

August 19, 2014 · 107 Comments

New Secular Stocks Bull

Is not underway: Does not begin at these valuations: And can not occur under these demographic trends: Rather, those charts collectively present the real story. This is a cyclical bull … Continue reading

August 15, 2014 · 167 Comments


Yesterday’s action produced a doji in US large caps, or indecision, so we roll over to today. This is how the Dow and R2K look: Source: Stockcharts The Dow has … Continue reading

August 13, 2014 · 68 Comments

Timing Major Market Peaks: Revisited

In the original post (HERE) I showed that major market peaks typically occur: 1. Within the month – at new moons (optimism peaks) 2. Within the year – at inverted … Continue reading

August 11, 2014 · 38 Comments


In the last decade, demographic trends in the Eurozone turned from growth-positive and inflationary to recessionary and deflationary. Cross-validating this, we see a trend of disinflation since the peak that … Continue reading

August 7, 2014 · 51 Comments

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