S O L A R C Y C L E S

With John Hampson

The Week Ahead

Earnings season continues. So far from those who have reported, EPS growth in Q3 is 5%. I remind you that the projection for this quarter was 12% at the start … Continue reading

October 19, 2014 · 160 Comments

Comparing Stock Market Peaks

The most common idea I’m reading on Twitter currently is that the current stock market correction is an echo of July 2007, implying a rally back up to marginal new … Continue reading

October 17, 2014 · 201 Comments

Capitulation?

I’ll cut to the summary: there were some signs of capitulation yesterday, but that was not likely the bottom. I’ve kept all my short positions, here’s the analysis: Capitulation signs: … Continue reading

October 16, 2014 · 138 Comments

Tuesday Morning Update

No panic selling follow-through from Friday in the Asia and Europe sessions yesterday but weakness hit late in the US, producing the third consecutive >1% down day, taking the SP500 7% … Continue reading

October 14, 2014 · 222 Comments

Pre-Monday Update

Here’s a reminder of historical analogs (manias of similar valuations, leverage, bullishness extremes, etc), and their common topping pattern: Source: Financial-Spread-Betting Here is the Dax in 2014, with a similar … Continue reading

October 12, 2014 · 173 Comments

V-Correction Or Breakdown Part 2

Tuesday’s selling to a lower low delivered the missing positive RSI divergence on the SP500 and out of that we saw a strong rally on Wednesday. It was a necessary stick … Continue reading

October 9, 2014 · 262 Comments

The Only Chart That Matters

Ask 100 analysts and traders what that is, and chances are that not one of them will point to this: Yet I maintain that this is it. The last 5 solar cycles … Continue reading

October 7, 2014 · 274 Comments

V-Correction Or Breakdown?

The bounce yesterday in equities arrived at an appropriate point when stock indices are cross-referenced technically: channel support on the SP500 and key horizontal support on the Russell 2000: Plus rising support … Continue reading

October 3, 2014 · 253 Comments

Last Quarter Of 2014

September finished as a down month for all US stock indices, which means the peak in margin debt should remain as February. Cross-referencing: SOCL, RUT and Nasdaq breadth peaks are still signalling a … Continue reading

October 1, 2014 · 218 Comments

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