S O L A R C Y C L E S

With John Hampson

Last Gasps

New moon this coming weekend and the seasonal geomagnetic model peak. SP500 is still in a topping range since July 3, with RSI and Vix divergences. Source: Stockcharts Skew continues … Continue reading

July 23, 2014 · 27 Comments

Second Chance Peak

Friday was a bullish fightback, but I still think the roll over is in gradual progress here. Here’s why I think the markets are at the second chance peak, rather than earlier … Continue reading

July 19, 2014 · 71 Comments

Update

US equities unresolved still at the time of writing, but unlikely for long. US small caps and European stock indices made a definitive trend change around the start of July, making … Continue reading

July 17, 2014 · 56 Comments

Charts For A US Stock Market Peak Here And Now

1. Put-call extremes plus negative divergence as per previous peaks: Source: Rory Handyside 2. Skew extremes and clustering greater than 2011 peak: Source: James Goode 3. Implied correlation volatility reflects … Continue reading

July 7, 2014 · 121 Comments

Burned By The Sun

The evidence for a speculation peak delivered at the solar maximum is better than I could have hoped, yet I’m on the wrong side of it and feeling the pain. … Continue reading

July 4, 2014 · 69 Comments

Three Peaks

By the end of 2013 we saw various divergences emerge that warned of a potential trend change ahead, and still do: The first major peak point occurred at the turn of the year, … Continue reading

July 1, 2014 · 96 Comments

Cross Referencing

Wim Grommen argues there have been 3 industrial revolutions: 1780-1850, 1870-1930 and 1940-2000. They terminated with major peaks in the stock market and then gave way to degeneration phases. Source: … Continue reading

June 14, 2014 · 98 Comments

Comparison to 1937

1937 was a solar maximum, like 2014, and notably the stock market peaked out despite negligible interest rates and with preceding QE, i.e. it was an atypical bull market end: … Continue reading

June 9, 2014 · 62 Comments

Piecing It All Together

US equities have diverged from fundamentals, earnings and smart money flows for around 2 years now. In all three regards this echoes the couple of years prior to the 2000 … Continue reading

June 8, 2014 · 28 Comments

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