S O L A R C Y C L E S

With John Hampson

End Of The Mania

The irrationality continues, but not for much longer. After last year’s solar maximum, the cross-asset picture changed. Global stocks entered into a topping range whilst money flowed into the US dollar … Continue reading

March 22, 2015 · 264 Comments

ZIRP vs Solar

US economic surprises are now at their worst level since 2009: Source: Bloomberg / Jessie Felder A trio of such bad data releases are charted here: retail sales, wholesale sales … Continue reading

March 15, 2015 · 441 Comments

State Of The Markets

1. Commercial positioning in the EuroDollar is extreme, suggesting a significant reversal should be at hand: Source: Dana Lyons 2. Gold positioning is not at the same extreme. The positioning … Continue reading

March 8, 2015 · 434 Comments

Behold

New highs in US equities despite… 1. Valuations on a par with the 1929 peak 2. Sentiment extreme lopsided (II 3.5x bulls vs bears, NAAIM 84% bulls) 3. Allocations to … Continue reading

February 14, 2015 · 344 Comments

Not So Different After All?

Comparing the 2000, 2007 and 2011 peaks to 2014-15. Taking 2000 first, as that was the last solar maximum pre-2014 and therefore the most relevant, I’m using several measures that … Continue reading

February 6, 2015 · 343 Comments

The Old Rules

Extremely stretched valuations, highly lop-sided sentiment and allocations, excessive leverage, long-standing negative divergences, persistent shift to defensives, negative leading indicators, disappointing earnings, declining financial conditions: these are some of the … Continue reading

February 4, 2015 · 113 Comments

3 Exact Dates

As we wait for the ECB decision and market reaction, I see 3 exact dates being revealed that align with my ‘triple confluence peaks’ idea, i.e. we are seeing major market peaks … Continue reading

January 22, 2015 · 216 Comments

Solar Models

Solar maxima generate speculation peaks. The latest smoothed solar maximum is likely to have been April 2014. The chief speculation target has been equities, particularly US equities. That mania is … Continue reading

January 14, 2015 · 182 Comments

Triple Confluence Peaks

People unwittingly buy into new moons and sell into full moons (typically, not always). People perhaps a little more consciously buy and sell seasonally, but unaware they are being guided by geomagnetism. … Continue reading

January 11, 2015 · 102 Comments

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