With John Hampson

Just The Facts

US earnings: blended earnings growth stands at -2.2%, compared to an expected -5.2% before reporting began. So that’s quite a beat, and may account for some market fuel, but still … Continue reading

November 7, 2015 · 310 Comments

Bear Market Rally

Well, is it a bear market rally or a bull market rally? 20 months after topping indicators started flagging we still can’t say for sure. That sounds incredible, but before … Continue reading

October 11, 2015 · 194 Comments

Q4 2015

A recap of the big picture. In 2014 around 40 stocks bull market top indicators gathered. The list includes valuations, leverage, allocations, sentiment, money losing IPOs, buybacks, breadth and risk … Continue reading

October 3, 2015 · 253 Comments

Bull Market Peak

US Stocks:dollar, stocks:bonds, junk bonds and volatility (inverted) all peaked out mid-2014 with the solar maximum. Source: Stockcharts Crude oil, put/call, breadth and bullish percent did likewise. Sornette’s bubble end … Continue reading

September 26, 2015 · 231 Comments

What Causes Bear Markets And Recessions?

Firstly, the definitions of a bear market (20% decline) and a recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth) are arbitrary, but a line has to be drawn somewhere. Secondly, there … Continue reading

September 19, 2015 · 391 Comments

Stock Market, Sunspots And Geomagnetism

The smoothed solar maximum was April 2014. Geomagnetism intensified as of August 2014. This is normal progression: positive pressure up into the sunspot peak, then negative pressure as both sunspots … Continue reading

September 12, 2015 · 235 Comments

The Big Picture

Financial markets are the function of swells and shrinkages in buyers and leverage, brought about principally by demographics and sunspot cycles, additionally with the latter influencing the former. The big … Continue reading

September 5, 2015 · 320 Comments

Increasing Validation

Testing several key theories here real time, it’s been a slow process, but patience is being rewarded. Firstly, that demographic forces are more powerful than central bank actions. Look what’s … Continue reading

August 21, 2015 · 91 Comments

A Dumb Mechanism

Evidence reveals the financial markets┬áto be ‘dumb’. Long term trends are dictated by demographics (swelling numbers of buyers or sellers) and solar cycles (influencing speculation levels amongst participants). Markets top … Continue reading

August 15, 2015 · 110 Comments

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