S O L A R C Y C L E S

With John Hampson

Problems in China

1. China tipped over the demographic cliff circa 2007-2010. Here are middle to young, middle to old, net investors and dependency ratio (inverted) measures: 2. China’s stock market enjoyed a parabolic … Continue reading

September 16, 2014 · 157 Comments

Characteristics Of A Stock Market Peak

Focussing on the US stock market, I’ll divide this into two: what’s currently flagging a peak, and what’s – arguably – missing. First, the different angles and disciplines that are signalling … Continue reading

September 8, 2014 · 60 Comments

Last 30 Years

MSCI world equity index valuation chart for the last 30 years: Source: Investec The overall dotted line trend matches the black global demographics composite in the next two charts: Conventional … Continue reading

September 3, 2014 · 59 Comments

US Stock Market Valuation

Firstly, trailing 12m p/e valuation. This chart clearly shows this measure is a rather useless tool, and can be disregarded: Source: D Short Secondly, forward p/e (12m) valuation. This measure … Continue reading

September 1, 2014 · 73 Comments

Last 18 Months

Over the last 18 months, US equities rose on 80% multiple expansion and just 20% earnings, and they diverged from economic fundamentals. Source: Yardeni Institutions were net sellers in this … Continue reading

August 28, 2014 · 75 Comments

The Alternatives

Alternative 1: The Bull Is Safe Stocks are in a new secular bull market. This cyclical bull began from the low in 2011. The economy is recovering and we need a … Continue reading

August 25, 2014 · 201 Comments

Double Top Or Breakout

A double top here on the SP500 or another breakout to new highs? Below shows Aug 8th was another channel hold, so is it bull-business as usual or has something changed? … Continue reading

August 21, 2014 · 68 Comments

Developments

Yesterday’s action produced a doji in US large caps, or indecision, so we roll over to today. This is how the Dow and R2K look: Source: Stockcharts The Dow has … Continue reading

August 13, 2014 · 68 Comments

Eurozone

In the last decade, demographic trends in the Eurozone turned from growth-positive and inflationary to recessionary and deflationary. Cross-validating this, we see a trend of disinflation since the peak that … Continue reading

August 7, 2014 · 51 Comments

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