S O L A R C Y C L E S

With John Hampson

Increasing Validation

Testing several key theories here real time, it’s been a slow process, but patience is being rewarded. Firstly, that demographic forces are more powerful than central bank actions. Look what’s … Continue reading

August 21, 2015 · 91 Comments

A Dumb Mechanism

Evidence reveals the financial markets to be ‘dumb’. Long term trends are dictated by demographics (swelling numbers of buyers or sellers) and solar cycles (influencing speculation levels amongst participants). Markets top … Continue reading

August 15, 2015 · 110 Comments

Update

Capitulative breadth now down to 6 on the rally in stocks, but still suggestive of some more upside for equities to properly neutralise it. Source: Rob Hannah Today is the … Continue reading

July 31, 2015 · 206 Comments

Comparison to 2000

The biggest stock market mania of all time peaked out in March 2000, which was the exact month the smoothed solar max of SC23 peaked. Solar cycle 24 appears to … Continue reading

June 19, 2015 · 224 Comments

The Conundrum Of Our Times Part 2

Let’s now draw in the solar cycle. Here are US equity valuations by Q ratio versus solar maxima over the last century. A relation becomes apparent with secular lows and … Continue reading

June 15, 2015 · 56 Comments

The Conundrum Of Our Times Part 1

This is a complex time to trade the financial markets. We are trying to forecast against a backdrop of prolonged ultra low rates, collective quantitative easing programmes, united demographic downtrends and extreme debt levels … Continue reading

June 12, 2015 · 117 Comments

Global Economy

The world economy is currently in trouble, showing both recessionary and deflationary coincident data: Source: Ned DavisSource: GaveKal Given these, the resilience of equity markets has been pretty amazing, even more so as … Continue reading

June 10, 2015 · 58 Comments

The Influence Of The Solar Maximum

The smoothed solar maximum occurred mid-2014. Source: Solen Financial Conditions peaked mid-2014. Source: Bloomberg World earnings peaked mid-2014. Source: Schwab US IPOs peaked then. Source: Marketwatch Buybacks peaked then. Source: … Continue reading

June 3, 2015 · 243 Comments

Debt And Demographics Dictating

Ever since 2009 analysts in the developed world have largely expected a return to ‘normal’ economic growth and inflation, the kind that necessitates a gradual tightening of interest rates to … Continue reading

May 30, 2015 · 113 Comments

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