S O L A R C Y C L E S

With John Hampson

Weekend Update

A doji on the SP500 on Friday, making for a week of sideways range. But there is one index still not slowing down, the Nasdaq 100. Apple and Microsoft are … Continue reading

November 15, 2014 · 370 Comments

Last Quarter Of 2014

September finished as a down month for all US stock indices, which means the peak in margin debt should remain as February. Cross-referencing: SOCL, RUT and Nasdaq breadth peaks are still signalling a … Continue reading

October 1, 2014 · 218 Comments

Population, GDP, Debt, War And Solar Variation

On a longer term view, these all fit together, and understanding their relationships can help us predict what’s coming. The grand solar minima correlate with clusters of war: War clusters / cycles … Continue reading

September 29, 2014 · 216 Comments

US Demographic Peak Of 2000

The US enjoyed united demographic uptrends from 1980 to 2000 and since then united downtrends. Here are a collection of charts that show the powerful reality of this influence. 1. … Continue reading

September 18, 2014 · 86 Comments

Problems in China

1. China tipped over the demographic cliff circa 2007-2010. Here are middle to young, middle to old, net investors and dependency ratio (inverted) measures: 2. China’s stock market enjoyed a parabolic … Continue reading

September 16, 2014 · 166 Comments

Characteristics Of A Stock Market Peak

Focussing on the US stock market, I’ll divide this into two: what’s currently flagging a peak, and what’s – arguably – missing. First, the different angles and disciplines that are signalling … Continue reading

September 8, 2014 · 60 Comments

Last 30 Years

MSCI world equity index valuation chart for the last 30 years: Source: Investec The overall dotted line trend matches the black global demographics composite in the next two charts: Conventional … Continue reading

September 3, 2014 · 59 Comments

US Stock Market Valuation

Firstly, trailing 12m p/e valuation. This chart clearly shows this measure is a rather useless tool, and can be disregarded: Source: D Short Secondly, forward p/e (12m) valuation. This measure … Continue reading

September 1, 2014 · 73 Comments

Last 18 Months

Over the last 18 months, US equities rose on 80% multiple expansion and just 20% earnings, and they diverged from economic fundamentals. Source: Yardeni Institutions were net sellers in this … Continue reading

August 28, 2014 · 75 Comments

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