S O L A R C Y C L E S

With John Hampson

Update

Capitulative breadth now down to 6 on the rally in stocks, but still suggestive of some more upside for equities to properly neutralise it. Source: Rob Hannah Today is the … Continue reading

July 31, 2015 · 71 Comments

Comparison to 2000

The biggest stock market mania of all time peaked out in March 2000, which was the exact month the smoothed solar max of SC23 peaked. Solar cycle 24 appears to … Continue reading

June 19, 2015 · 224 Comments

The Conundrum Of Our Times Part 2

Let’s now draw in the solar cycle. Here are US equity valuations by Q ratio versus solar maxima over the last century. A relation becomes apparent with secular lows and … Continue reading

June 15, 2015 · 56 Comments

The Conundrum Of Our Times Part 1

This is a complex time to trade the financial markets. We are trying to forecast against a backdrop of prolonged ultra low rates, collective quantitative easing programmes, united demographic downtrends and extreme debt levels … Continue reading

June 12, 2015 · 117 Comments

Global Economy

The world economy is currently in trouble, showing both recessionary and deflationary coincident data: Source: Ned DavisSource: GaveKal Given these, the resilience of equity markets has been pretty amazing, even more so as … Continue reading

June 10, 2015 · 58 Comments

The Influence Of The Solar Maximum

The smoothed solar maximum occurred mid-2014. Source: Solen Financial Conditions peaked mid-2014. Source: Bloomberg World earnings peaked mid-2014. Source: Schwab US IPOs peaked then. Source: Marketwatch Buybacks peaked then. Source: … Continue reading

June 3, 2015 · 243 Comments

Debt And Demographics Dictating

Ever since 2009 analysts in the developed world have largely expected a return to ‘normal’ economic growth and inflation, the kind that necessitates a gradual tightening of interest rates to … Continue reading

May 30, 2015 · 113 Comments

On The Attack

Phasing more into long gold, short Dow, and opened ETF agri long. Don’t follow me… here is my case. Gold has been making a long base with rising underlying strength … Continue reading

May 15, 2015 · 412 Comments

Short Term US Update

The breakout in equities is likely to become a fake-out or short final up leg, based on historical indicator patterns. Breadth and strength have negatively diverged: Source: Stockcharts Volatility relativity … Continue reading

April 26, 2015 · 576 Comments

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