With John Hampson

Last 18 Months

Over the last 18 months, US equities rose on 80% multiple expansion and just 20% earnings, and they diverged from economic fundamentals. Source: Yardeni Institutions were net sellers in this … Continue reading

August 28, 2014 · 75 Comments

The Alternatives

Alternative 1: The Bull Is Safe Stocks are in a new secular bull market. This cyclical bull began from the low in 2011. The economy is recovering and we need a … Continue reading

August 25, 2014 · 201 Comments

Double Top Or Breakout

A double top here on the SP500 or another breakout to new highs? Below shows Aug 8th was another channel hold, so is it bull-business as usual or has something changed? … Continue reading

August 21, 2014 · 68 Comments


Yesterday’s action produced a doji in US large caps, or indecision, so we roll over to today. This is how the Dow and R2K look: Source: Stockcharts The Dow has … Continue reading

August 13, 2014 · 68 Comments


In the last decade, demographic trends in the Eurozone turned from growth-positive and inflationary to recessionary and deflationary. Cross-validating this, we see a trend of disinflation since the peak that … Continue reading

August 7, 2014 · 51 Comments

QE is mantra rather than driver

This is widely presented as the only chart that matters: Or like this: Namely, that QE has been the driver of the stocks bull market and its corrections, and the Fed … Continue reading

July 31, 2014 · 33 Comments

The Macro Picture

An important week this week: more big earnings, first Q2 GDP release, FOMC and the last week of July. Stock price increases the last 2 years have been 80% multiple … Continue reading

July 29, 2014 · 67 Comments

Sell Into Strength

Or buy into weakness, what’s it going to be? Valuation looks like this: And the Russell 2000 trailing p/e is now over 100. Bull market looks like this: Sentiment looks … Continue reading

April 17, 2014 · 30 Comments

Markets Update

The selling in equities into Tuesday did not wash out indicators, suggesting a lower low should be ahead. Yesterday’s bounce produced a very low put/call reading signalling high complacency.  Source: … Continue reading

April 10, 2014 · 51 Comments

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