Category Archives: Indicators
What Really Moves The Markets
The evidence has led me to a ‘dumb’ model of the markets, whereby humans are more subjects and less intelligent creatures of free will. It’s up to you to decide … Continue reading
State Of The Markets
The latest picture for 4-way pro-risk: Source: Bloomberg If a trend change occurred in late April then commodities and Euro-USD have yet to meaningfully participate. Stocks and bond yields however, … Continue reading
USA Financial Markets Economic Correlations
Correlations between real stocks, real commodities, real house prices and treasury yields, together with inflation, interest rates, recessions, unemployment, demographics and sunspots. A more detailed, step by step study of … Continue reading
Sunspots, Equities, Treasuries, Commodities, Inflation, Money Velocity, Interest Rates And Demographics
Time to draw them all together and see the full correlations. This is US-based analysis due to data availability. The first chart (click to view larger) reveals historic spikes in … Continue reading
State Of The Markets
Here is the latest picture for pro-risk proxies. A new uptrend appears to have begun in late April, following an overall downtrend since the turn of February (equities traded overall … Continue reading
Solar Cycles, Demographics and Equities
A long post coming up, but I found this to be outlook-changing research. Firstly, the Japanese stock index long term chart, with solar cycle maximums marked as black lines (C … Continue reading
Velocity, Yields, Inflation, Growth And Commodities
I maintain the late 1940s is our closest historical mirror, as per this chart: Then, as now, they had a problem with money velocity. But it reversed course and took … Continue reading
State Of The Markets
Starting with leading indicators, the latest Conference Board table is a sea of green: Source: Conference Board Global money supply suggests a flattening out of industrial output in mid-year, but … Continue reading
More On Gold
A potential low was formed overnight in precious metals. I suggest a snapback has good odds, as yesterday’s action produced yet more extreme oversold and overbearish flags, such as this: … Continue reading
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