With John Hampson

Q4 2015

A recap of the big picture. In 2014 around 40 stocks bull market top indicators gathered. The list includes valuations, leverage, allocations, sentiment, money losing IPOs, buybacks, breadth and risk … Continue reading

October 3, 2015 · 189 Comments

Bull Market Peak

US Stocks:dollar, stocks:bonds, junk bonds and volatility (inverted) all peaked out mid-2014 with the solar maximum. Source: Stockcharts Crude oil, put/call, breadth and bullish percent did likewise. Sornette’s bubble end … Continue reading

September 26, 2015 · 231 Comments

What Causes Bear Markets And Recessions?

Firstly, the definitions of a bear market (20% decline) and a recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth) are arbitrary, but a line has to be drawn somewhere. Secondly, there … Continue reading

September 19, 2015 · 391 Comments

Stock Market, Sunspots And Geomagnetism

The smoothed solar maximum was April 2014. Geomagnetism intensified as of August 2014. This is normal progression: positive pressure up into the sunspot peak, then negative pressure as both sunspots … Continue reading

September 12, 2015 · 235 Comments

The Big Picture

Financial markets are the function of swells and shrinkages in buyers and leverage, brought about principally by demographics and sunspot cycles, additionally with the latter influencing the former. The big … Continue reading

September 5, 2015 · 320 Comments

Bear V Bull

We can now see that the arching over in price in 2015 set against negative divergences in breadth and strength were indeed a prelude to a collapse in stocks like in 2011: … Continue reading

August 29, 2015 · 234 Comments

Sunday Indicator Updates

There are a bunch of indicators already at contrarian extremes and they would argue that stocks are close to a low. Here, ISEE put call, daily sentiment index and CBOE … Continue reading

August 23, 2015 · 373 Comments

Increasing Validation

Testing several key theories here real time, it’s been a slow process, but patience is being rewarded. Firstly, that demographic forces are more powerful than central bank actions. Look what’s … Continue reading

August 21, 2015 · 91 Comments

El Niño And Global Temperature

2015 so far is the hottest on record, globally land and ocean. Here is January-June: Source: NOAA And here is July, the hottest month since records began in 1890: Source: … Continue reading

August 18, 2015 · 156 Comments

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